Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province.

BACKGROUND: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. METHODS: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. RESULTS: The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Schistosomiasis: A Global Assessment Attempt.

Based on an ensemble of global circulation models (GCMs), four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and several ongoing and planned Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global, average temperatures will increase by at least 1.5 °C in the near future and more by the end of the century if greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions are not genuinely tempered. While the RCPs are indicative of various amounts of GHGs in the atmosphere the CMIPs are designed to improve the workings of the GCMs. We chose RCP4.5 which represented a medium GHG emission increase and CMIP5, the most recently completed CMIP phase. Combining this meteorological model with a biological counterpart model accounted for replication and survival of the snail intermediate host as well as maturation of the parasite stage inside the snail at different ambient temperatures. The potential geographical distribution of the three main schistosome species: Schistosoma japonicum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium was investigated with reference to their different transmission capabilities at the monthly mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month(s) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month(s). The set of six maps representing the predicted situations in 2021⁻2050 and 2071⁻2100 for each species mainly showed increased transmission areas for all three species but they also left room for potential shrinkages in certain areas.

Estimation of disability weight for paragonimiasis: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Paragonimiasis, caused by helminths of the genus Paragonimus spp., is a neglected tropical disease. Human suffering from paragonimiasis is often misunderstood and its quantification by the disability weight of the disability-adjusted life years largely varies in different global burden of disease (GBD) estimates. This paper is to systematically review clinical paragonimiasis cases and requantify the disability weight of human paragonimiasis. METHODS: A systematic analysis was conducted using articles from the following databases: PubMed, Institute for Scientific Information Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the Chinese scientific journal databases Wanfang Data and CQVIP, Africa Journal Online, and the System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe. Search terms were the combination of "paragonim*" with "clinical" or "infection". Only articles fulfilling the following conditions were recruited for this study: the occurrence of clinical signs and symptoms of paragonimiasis in human beings were reported; diagnosis was confirmed; no comorbidities were reported; the reviewed clinical cases or epidemiological findings were not already included in any other articles. The information and frequencies of paragonimiasis outcomes from included articles using predefined data fields were extracted two times by two separate individuals. Outcome disability weights were selected mainly from the GBD 2004 and GBD 2013 datasets. Frequencies and disability weights of paragonimiasis outcomes were modelled into a decision tree using the additive approach and multiplicative approach, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations were run 5000 times for an uncertainty analysis. RESULTS: The disability weight estimates of paragonimiasis were simulated with 5302 clinical cases from 80 general articles. The overall disability weight was estimated at 0.1927 (median 0.1956) with a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of 0.1632-0.2378 using the additive approach, and 0.1791 (median 0.1816) with a 95% UI of 0.1530-0.2182 using the multiplicative approach. The simulated disability weights of Paragonimus westermani cases were higher than that of P. skrjabini cases. Lung outcomes and headache were the top two contributors to disability weight for both species. CONCLUSIONS: The use of paragonimiasis disability weight needs to be reconsidered with regard to availability of morbidity data and species variation. Calculating the disease burden of paragonimiasis requires further modification and thus has considerable implications for public health prioritization in research, monitoring, and control.

Risk assessment of malaria transmission at the border area of China and Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: In order to achieve the goal of malaria elimination, the Chinese government launched the National Malaria Elimination Programme in 2010. However, as a result of increasing cross-border population movements, the risk of imported malaria cases still exists at the border areas of China, resulting in a potential threat of local transmission. The focus of this paper is to assess the Plasmodium vivax incidences in Tengchong, Yunnan Province, at the border areas of China and Myanmar. METHODS: Time series of P. vivax incidences in Tengchong from 2006 to 2010 are collected from the web-based China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, which are further separated into time series of imported and local cases. First, the seasonal and trend decomposition are performed on time series of imported cases using Loess method. Then, the impact of climatic factors on the local transmission of P. vivax is assessed using both linear regression models (LRM) and generalized additive models (GAM). Specifically, the notion of vectorial capacity (VCAP) is used to estimate the transmission potential of P. vivax at different locations, which is calculated based on temperature and rainfall collected from China Meteorological Administration. RESULTS: Comparing with Ruili County, the seasonal pattern of imported cases in Tengchong is different: Tengchong has only one peak, while Ruili has two peaks during each year. This may be due to the different cross-border behaviors of peoples in two locations. The vectorial capacity together with the imported cases and the average humidity, can well explain the local incidences of P. vivax through both LRM and GAM methods. Moreover, the maximum daily temperature is verified to be more suitable to calculate VCAP than the minimal and average temperature in Tengchong County. CONCLUSION: To achieve malaria elimination in China, the assessment results in this paper will provide further guidance in active surveillance and control of malaria at the border areas of China and Myanmar.

An integrated environmental improvement of marshlands: impact on control and elimination of schistosomiasis in marshland regions along the Yangtze River, China.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis is a global snail-transmitted infectious disease of poverty. Transmission control had been achieved in China in 2015 after the control efforts for over 60 years. Currently, the remaining core regions endemic for Schistosoma japonicum are mainly located in the marshland and lake regions along the Yangtze River basin. METHODS: During the period from 2001 through 2015, an integrated environmental improvement of the marshlands was carried out through the implementation of industrial, agricultural and resources development projects in Yizheng County along the Yangtze River. S. japonicum infection in humans, livestock and snails was estimated by serology, stool examination, hatching technique and microscopy during the 15-year study period to evaluate the effect of the integrated environmental improvement on control and elimination of schistosomiasis. RESULTS: A 0.05% overall rate of S. japonicum infection was observed in snails during the 15-year study period, and no infected snails were detected since 2012. The overall prevalence of S. japonicum infection was 0.09% in humans during the study period, and no human infection was found since 2012. In addition, only 13 bovines were identified with S. japonicum infection in 2003 during the 15-year study period, and since 2004, no infection was found in livestock. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study demonstrate that the implementation of industrial, agricultural and water resources development projects, not only alters snail habitats in marshland regions, and promotes local economic development, which appears a win-to-win strategy to block the transmission of S. japonicum and accelerate socio-economic development along the Yangtze River.

From gap analysis to solution and action: the RNAS⁺ model.

The overall aim of the Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)) is to strengthen collaboration between control authorities in the regional, endemic countries. The network has provided critical research input during its 12 years of existence developing gradually from a small forum for information exchange. RNAS(+) now provides advice on regional strategies regularly and contributes to the mobilization of resources with respect to multi-country projects on several parasitic diseases in Southeast Asia, primarily schistosomiasis but also other helminth infections including polyparasitism. To make progress towards these goals, RNAS(+) has focused on platform design and technical standardization aiming at fostering research capacity and the development of networking capacities with easy access to information databases. This administrative body is largely virtual connecting RNAS(+) members via the Internet, providing database and administrative back-up. This strategy, aiming at boosting research on the target diseases, strongly emphasizes ways and means to alleviate the spectre of disease and poverty from the endemic areas.

Water-related parasitic diseases in China.

Water-related parasitic diseases are directly dependent on water bodies for their spread or as a habitat for indispensable intermediate or final hosts. Along with socioeconomic development and improvement of sanitation, overall prevalence is declining in the China. However, the heterogeneity in economic development and the inequity of access to public services result in considerable burden due to parasitic diseases in certain areas and populations across the country. In this review, we demonstrated three aspects of ten major water-related parasitic diseases, i.e., the biology and pathogenicity, epidemiology and recent advances in research in China. General measures for diseases control and special control strategies are summarized.

Optimizing molluscicide treatment strategies in different control stages of schistosomiasis in the People's Republic of China.

BACKGROUND: The application of chemical molluscicides is still one of the most effective measures for schistosomiasis control in P. R. China. By applying diverse molluscicide treatment scenarios on different snail densities in the field, we attempted to understand the cost-effectiveness of molluscicide application so as to prescribe an optimal management approach to control intermediate host snail Oncomelania hupensis under acceptable thresholds based on the goal of the National Schistosomiasis Control Programme. METHODS: The molluscicidal field trial was carried out in the marshland of an island along the Yangtze River, Jiangsu province, P.R. China in October 2010. Three plots in the island representing low-density, medium-density and high-density groups were identified after the baseline survey on snail density. Each snail density plot was divided into four experimental units in which molluscicide (50% niclosamide ethanolamine salt wettable powder) was applied once, twice, trice and four times, respectively. The logistic regression model to correlate snail mortality rate with the covariates of number of molluscicidal treatment and snail density, and a linear regression model to investigate the relationship between cost-effectiveness and number of molluscicidal treatment as well as snail density were established. RESULTS: The study revealed that increase in the number of molluscicide treatments led to increased snail mortality across all three population density groups. The most cost-effective regimen was seen in the high snail density group with a single molluscicide treatment. For both high and low density groups, the more times molluscicide were applied, the less cost-effectiveness was. However, for the median density group, the level of cost-effectiveness for two applications was slightly higher than that in one time. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that different stages of the national schistosomiasis control/elimination programme, namely morbidity control, transmission control and transmission interruption, should utilize different molluscicide treatment strategies to maximize cost-effectiveness.

A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: towards control and elimination.

Human helminthiases are of considerable public health importance in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The acknowledgement of the disease burden due to helminth infections, the availability of donated or affordable drugs that are mostly safe and moderately efficacious, and the implementation of viable mass drug administration (MDA) interventions have prompted the establishment of various large-scale control and elimination programmes. These programmes have benefited from improved epidemiological mapping of the infections, better understanding of the scope and limitations of currently available diagnostics and of the relationship between infection and morbidity, feasibility of community-directed or school-based interventions, and advances in the design of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) protocols. Considerable success has been achieved in reducing morbidity or suppressing transmission in a number of settings, whilst challenges remain in many others. Some of the obstacles include the lack of diagnostic tools appropriate to the changing requirements of ongoing interventions and elimination settings; the reliance on a handful of drugs about which not enough is known regarding modes of action, modes of resistance, and optimal dosage singly or in combination; the difficulties in sustaining adequate coverage and compliance in prolonged and/or integrated programmes; an incomplete understanding of the social, behavioural, and environmental determinants of infection; and last, but not least, very little investment in research and development (R&D). The Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), was given the mandate to undertake a comprehensive review of recent advances in helminthiases research, identify research gaps, and rank priorities for an R&D agenda for the control and elimination of these infections. This review presents the processes undertaken to identify and rank ten top research priorities; discusses the implications of realising these priorities in terms of their potential for improving global health and achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs); outlines salient research funding needs; and introduces the series of reviews that follow in this PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases collection, "A Research Agenda for Helminth Diseases of Humans."

A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: social ecology, environmental determinants, and health systems.

In this paper, the Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), with the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps, focuses on the environmental, social, behavioural, and political determinants of human helminth infections and outlines a research and development agenda for the socioeconomic and health systems research required for the development of sustainable control programmes. Using Stockols' social-ecological approach, we describe the role of various social (poverty, policy, stigma, culture, and migration) and environmental determinants (the home environment, water resources development, and climate change) in the perpetuation of helminthic diseases, as well as their impact as contextual factors on health promotion interventions through both the regular and community-based health systems. We examine these interactions in regard to community participation, intersectoral collaboration, gender, and possibilities for upscaling helminthic disease control and elimination programmes within the context of integrated and interdisciplinary approaches. The research agenda summarises major gaps that need to be addressed.

[Surgical selection and efficacy assessment for membranous urethral trauma caused by pelvic fracture].

OBJECTIVE: To explore selection and efficacy assessment for membranous urethral trauma caused by pelvic fracture. METHODS: From June 2000 to August 2010, 72 patients with membranous urethral trauma caused by pelvic fracture were selected. There were 46 males and 26 females,ranging age from 26 to 62 years (averaged 35.2 years). The time from injury to hospitalization time was 1 to 3 hours. According to Tile pelvic fracture classification, there were 8 patients with type A, 45 patients with type B, 19 patients with type C. Thirty of the 35 patients with partial rupture of posterior urethral were treated by catheterization,5 patients treated by rupture anastomosis on the stage I combined with cystostomy; 25 of the 37 patients with complete rupture of posterior urethra were treated by early realignment, and 12 patients were treated by cystostomy. Urinary incontinence, impotence and urethrostenosis were evaluated. RESULTS: All patients were followed up for 5 to 10 years (mean 7.7 years). Incidence of urethrostenosis, impotence and urinary incontinence in patients treated by cystostomy were significantly higher than rupture anastomosis on the stage I and early realignment (P < 0.05); while incidence in patients treated by catheterization was significantly lower than other groups (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: For patients with partial rupture of posterior urethral, catheterization and rupture anastomosis on the stage I are preferred methods; while patients with complete rupture of posterior urethra, early realignment is a preferred method with advantages of simple operation and less complications.

Disability weight of Clonorchis sinensis infection: captured from community study and model simulation.

BACKGROUND: Clonorchiasis is among the most neglected tropical diseases. It is caused by ingesting raw or undercooked fish or shrimp containing the larval of Clonorchis sinensis and mainly endemic in Southeast Asia including China, Korea and Vietnam. The global estimations for population at risk and infected are 601 million and 35 million, respectively. However, it is still not listed among the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and no disability weight is available for it. Disability weight reflects the average degree of loss of life value due to certain chronic disease condition and ranges between 0 (complete health) and 1 (death). It is crucial parameter for calculating the morbidity part of any disease burden in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: According to the probability and disability weight of single sequelae caused by C. sinensis infection, the overall disability weight could be captured through Monte Carlo simulation. The probability of single sequelae was gained from one community investigation, while the corresponding disability weight was searched from the literatures in evidence-based approach. The overall disability weights of the male and female were 0.101 and 0.050, respectively. The overall disability weights of the age group of 5-14, 15-29, 30-44, 45-59 and 60+ were 0.022, 0.052, 0.072, 0.094 and 0.118, respectively. There was some evidence showing that the disability weight and geometric mean of eggs per gram of feces (GMEPG) fitted a logarithmic equation. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The overall disability weights of C. sinensis infection are differential in different sex and age groups. The disability weight captured here may be referred for estimating the disease burden of C. sinensis infection.

[Retrospective investigation on national endemic situation of schistosomiasis I analysis of changes of endemic situation in transmission-interrupted counties].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the changing rules of schistosomiasis endemic situation in the area of transmission that has been interrupted before and after they reach the criteria of transmission interruption, so as to offer the basis of amending to the criteria of schistosomiasis transmission interruption and a more scientific, standardized assessment and evaluation of the effects of schistosomiasis control in the future. METHODS: Nineteen counties of transmission that has been interrupted in 9 provinces nationwide were selected and investigated with the retrospective research method to collect and record the endemic detailed data 10 years before they reach the criteria of transmission interruption and several years later (ended in 2008 or 2009) and then a database was established. The changing rules of various disease indices in different endemic areas before and after reaching the criteria of transmission interruption were analyzed and compared. RESULTS: The average time from the transmission control to the transmission interruption was 17 years in the 17 counties. After reaching the criteria of transmission interruption, the infection rates of people turned down to a minimum level in various endemic areas, the infection rates in a few numbers of lake endemic areas and hilly endemic areas increased slightly after the transmission interruption 4-9 years later, but all of them were below 1%. The densities of living Oncomelania snails in lake endemic areas and water-network endemic areas were high and the changes were great each year, and the densities of living snails were much lower in hilly endemic areas than in the above two types of areas and they came to the lowest 4 years before and after the transmission interruption. The infected snails appeared occasionally in lake endemic areas, and they recurred 6 years and 10 years after the transmission interruption in water-network endemic areas and hilly endemic areas, respectively. The continued time without infected snails found before reaching transmission interruption was 2.71 +/- 1.10 years averagely in transmission-interrupted counties with endemic stable, and was 3. 80 +/- 1.43 years in lake endemic areas. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to maintain a low level of population schistosome infection, and the endemic rebound is shown as snail rebound after the endemic areas reach the criteria of transmission interruption, The infected snails could be the comprehensive index reflecting the control achievement and the risk of schistosomiasis transmission. So the persistent control of infected snails is the fundament of schistosomiasis transmission interruption. It is suggested that in our current social and economic development and science and technology capacity conditions, the status of no infected snails found continuously for 5 years would be one of the criteria of schistosomiasis transmission interruption.

[Risk factors of schistosomiasis transmission in marshland and lake regions in midstream of Yangtze River].

OBJECTIVE: To study the risk factors of schistosomiasis related to household economic condition and individual behavior in marshland and lake regions, so as to provide evidences for schistosomiasis control. METHODS: Six villages were sampled with the stratified cluster sampling method, 2 339 villagers from 1 247 households were surveyed by a questionnaire and meanwhile their sera were assayed for schistosomiasis by IHA. The Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between the results of serological examinations and risk factors. RESULTS: The Logistic regression model fitted well (R2 = 0.598 4) and it indicated that there existed a regressive relationship between the antibody positive rate and the endemic situation of village, family economic status, age, education level and infection history of schistosomiasis. CONCLUSION: Suitable measures should be made in according to the local economic situation, endemic type and population to control the transmission of schistosomiasis effectively.

Strategy formulation for schistosomiasis japonica control in different environmental settings supported by spatial analysis: a case study from China.

With the aim of exploring the usefulness of spatial analysis in the formulation of a strategy for schistosomiasis japonica control in different environmental settings, a population-based database was established in Dangtu county, China. This database, containing the human prevalence of schistosomiasis at the village level from 2001 to 2004, was analyzed by directional trend analysis supported with ArcGIS 9.0 to select the optimum predictive approach. Based on the approach selected, different strata of prevalence were classified and the spatial distribution of human infection with Schistosoma japonicum was estimated. The second-order ordinary kriging approach of spatial analysis was found to be optimal for prediction of human prevalence of S. japonicum infection. The mean prediction error was close to 0 and the root-mean-square standardised error was close to 1. Starting with the different environmental settings for each stratum of transmission, four areas were classified according to human prevalence, and different strategies to control transmission of schistosomiasis were put forward. We conclude that the approach to use spatial analysis as a tool to predict the spatial distribution of human prevalence of S. japonicum infection improves the formulation of strategies for schistosomiasis control in different environmental settings at the county level.