The Burden of Overweight and Obesity-Associated Gastrointestinal Cancers in Low and Lower-Middle-Income Countries: A Global Burden of Disease 2019 Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with cancer, including gastrointestinal (GI). Data from low (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (MICs) are limited. METHODS: We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to determine the mortality from GI cancer risk of high body mass index (BMI) in these countries. RESULTS: Mortality rates of GI cancers from high BMI increased in LICs and lower MICs, while burdens decreased or remained stable in high and middle-income countries. DISCUSSION: The GI cancer-related burden from high BMI increased in LICs and lower MICs, necessitating a concerted effort to tackle the obesity pandemic.

Prediagnostic CT or MRI Utilization and Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: SEER-Medicare Database Analysis.

Ultrasound-based surveillance has suboptimal sensitivity for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detection, generating interest in alternative surveillance modalities. We aim to investigate the association between prediagnostic CT or MRI and overall survival in a contemporary cohort of patients with HCC. Using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, we analyzed Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with HCC between 2011 and 2015. Proportion of time covered (PTC) was defined as the proportion of the 36-month period prior to HCC diagnosis in which patients had received abdominal imaging (ultrasound, CT, MRI). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association between PTC and overall survival. Among 5,098 patients with HCC, 3,293 (65%) patients had abdominal imaging prior to HCC diagnosis, of whom 67% had CT/MRI. Median PTC by any abdominal imaging was 5.6% [interquartile range (IQR): 0%-36%], with few patients having PTC >50%. Compared with no abdominal images, ultrasound [adjusted HR (aHR): 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79-0.95] and CT/MRI group (aHR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.63-0.74) were associated with improved survival. Lead-time adjusted analysis showed improved survival continued to be observed with CT/MRI (aHR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.74-0.87) but not ultrasound (aHR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.91-1.10). Increased PTC was associated with improved survival, with a larger effect size observed with CT/MRI (aHR per 10%: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.91-0.95) than ultrasound (aHR per 10%: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). In conclusion, PTC by abdominal images was associated with improved survival in patients with HCC, with potential greater benefit using CT/MRI. Regular utilization of CT/MRI before cancer diagnosis may have potential survival benefit compared to ultrasound in patients with HCC. Significance: Our population-based study using SEER-Medicare database demonstrated that proportion of time covered by abdominal imaging was associated with improved survival in patients with HCC, with potential greater benefit using CT/MRI. The results suggest that CT/MRI surveillance may have potential survival benefit compared with ultrasound surveillance in high-risk patients for HCC. A larger prospective study should be conducted for external validation.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The extent to which nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) contributes to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prevalence in contemporary practices and whether there are any etiologic differences in surveillance receipt, tumor stage, and overall survival (OS) remain unclear. We aimed to estimate the burden of NAFLD-related HCC and magnitude of associations with surveillance receipt, clinical presentation, and outcomes in a contemporary HCC cohort. METHODS: In a cohort of HCC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare database between 2011 and 2015, we used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with surveillance receipt, early-stage tumor detection, and curative treatment. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with OS. RESULTS: Among 5098 HCC patients, NAFLD was the leading etiology, accounting for 1813 cases (35.6%). Compared with those with hepatitis C-related HCC, NAFLD was associated with lower HCC surveillance receipt (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-0.28), lower early-stage HCC detection (adjusted odds ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.40-0.60), and modestly worse OS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.32). NAFLD subgroup analysis showed that early-stage HCC, absence of ascites/hepatic encephalopathy, surveillance, and curative treatment receipt were associated with improved OS. NAFLD patients with coexisting liver disease were more likely to have surveillance, early-stage detection, curative treatment, and improved OS than NAFLD patients without coexisting liver diseases. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD is the leading etiology of HCC among Medicare beneficiaries. Compared with other etiologies, NAFLD was associated with lower HCC surveillance receipt, early-stage detection, and modestly poorer survival. Multifaceted interventions for improving surveillance uptake are needed to improve prognosis of patients with NAFLD-related HCC.

Ethnic disparities in the epidemiology, treatment, and outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States.

There are significant ethnic disparities in incidence, tumor stage, curative therapy receipt, and survival among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the US. While previous models had predicted an increasing trend in the incidence rate of HCC until 2030 in the US, recent studies have shown that HCC incidence plateaued in 2013 and then started to decline in 2015. The decreasing trend has been observed in all ethnicities except for American Indians/Alaska Natives, whose incidence rates of HCC continue to rise. Current evidence shows that African-Americans and Hispanics are two groups that are more likely to be diagnosed with late-stage HCC, and this finding has been consistent in different socioeconomic statuses of the patients. These two ethnic minority groups are also among those who are less likely to have curative therapy for early-stage HCC. Finally, advances in early diagnosis and treatment approaches have led to an improvement in HCC survival for all ethnicities; however, African-Americans continue to have the worst survival. More studies to find the causes of these disparities and interventions to eliminate them are urgently needed.

Therapeutic Underuse and Delay in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Prevalence, Associated Factors, and Clinical Impact.

Prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) could be affected by lack of or delayed therapy. We aimed to characterize the prevalence, correlates, and clinical impact of therapeutic underuse and delay in patients with HCC. Patients with HCC diagnosed between 2010 and 2017 were analyzed from the United States National Cancer Database. Logistic regression analysis identified factors associated with no and delayed (>90 days after diagnosis) HCC treatment. Cox proportional hazards regression with landmark analysis assessed the association between therapeutic delay and overall survival (OS), accounting for immortal time bias. Of 116,299 patients with HCC, 24.2% received no treatment and 18.4% of treated patients had delayed treatment. Older age, Black, Hispanic, lower socioeconomic status, earlier year of diagnosis, treatment at nonacademic centers, Northeast region, increased medical comorbidity, worse liver dysfunction, and higher tumor burden were associated with no treatment. Among treated patients, younger age, Hispanic, Black, treatment at academic centers, West region, earlier tumor stage, and receipt of noncurative treatment were associated with treatment delays. In multivariable Cox regression with a landmark of 150 days, patients with and without treatment delays had similar OS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.04) with a median survival of 33.7 vs. 32.1 months, respectively. However, therapeutic delay was associated with worse OS in patients who had tumor, nodes, and metastases (TNM) stage 1 (aHR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11) or received curative treatment (aHR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05-1.18). Conclusion: One-fourth of patients with HCC receive no therapy and one-fifth of treated patients experience treatment delays. Both were associated with demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics of patients as well as facility type and region. The association between therapeutic delay and survival was stage and treatment dependent.

State-Level HCC Incidence and Association With Obesity and Physical Activity in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality, with a disproportionate impact on racial/ethnic minority groups. However, state-level variation in racial/ethnic disparities and temporal trends of HCC incidence remain unknown. Therefore, we aimed to characterize (1) state-level racial/ethnic disparity in HCC incidence, (2) state-level temporal changes in HCC incidence, and (3) the ecological correlation between HCC incidence and obesity/physical activity levels in the USA. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Trends in HCC incidence between 2001 and 2017 were calculated using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results, and annual percent change in rates were calculated. State-level percent of obesity and level of physical activity were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the correlation among obesity, physical activity, and state-specific average annual percent change was tested by Pearson correlation coefficient. There were striking state-level racial/ethnic disparities in HCC incidence; incidence rate ratios ranged between 6.3 and 0.9 in Blacks, 6.1 and 1.7 in Asians/Pacific Islanders, 3.8 and 0.9 in Hispanics, and 6.0 and 0.9 in American Indians/Alaska Natives (compared with Whites as reference). Despite overall decreasing HCC incidence rates after 2015, HCC incidence continued increasing in 26 states over recent years. HCC incidence trends had a moderate correlation with state-level obesity (r = 0.45, P < 0.001) and a moderate inverse correlation with state-level physical activity (r = -0.40, P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: There is wide state-level variation in racial/ethnic disparity of HCC incidence. There are also disparate incidence trends across states, with HCC incidence continuing to increase in over half of the states. Regional obesity and lack of physical activity have moderate correlations with HCC incidence trends, suggesting that interventions targeting these factors may help curb rising HCC incidence.

An interobserver reproducibility analysis of size-set semiautomatic counting for Ki67 assessment in breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The proliferation marker Ki67 has prognostic and predictive values in breast cancer, and the cutoff of the Ki67 label index (LI) is a key index for chemotherapy. However, poor interobserver consistency in Ki67 assessment has limited the clinical use of Ki67, especially in luminal cancers. Here, we reported a modified Ki67 assessment method, size-set semiautomatic counting (SSSAC) and investigated its interobserver reproducibility. METHODS: One hundred invasive breast cancer tissues were set immunostained for Ki67 in one laboratory, scanned as digital slides, and sent to 41 pathologists at the laboratories of 16 hospitals for Ki67 LI assessment using size-set semiautomatic counting (SSSAC), size-set visual assessment (SSVA) and size-set digital image analysis (SSDIA) with a specific image viewing software (Aperio Image Scope, Leica, Germany). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland-Altman plot were used to evaluate interobserver reproducibility. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to analyze the difference in the Ki67 values assessed by SSSAC and SSDIA. RESULTS: SSSAC demonstrated better interobserver reproducibility (ICC = 0.942) than SSVA (ICC = 0.802). The interobserver reproducibility was better in Ki67 homogeneously stained slides and centralized hot-spot slides than in scattered hot-spot slides. The Ki67 value assessed with SSSAC was obviously higher than that assessed with SSDIA (negative ranks (SSDIA < SSSAC): N = 80, sum of ranks = 4274.50; positive ranks (SSDIA > SSSAC): N = 17, sum of ranks = 478.50; Z = -6.837; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: SSSAC shows satisfactory interobserver reproducibility in the Ki67 assessment of breast cancer and may be a candidate standard method for Ki67 LI assessment in breast cancer and other malignancies.

Impact of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma on survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been recommended in patients with cirrhosis. In this study, we examined the extent to which the competing risk of hepatic decompensation influences the benefit of HCC surveillance by investigating the impact of availability of liver transplantation (LTx) and the rate of progression of hepatic decompensation on survival gain from HCC surveillance. A multistate Markov model was constructed simulating a cohort of 50-year-old patients with compensated cirrhosis. The primary outcome of interest was all-cause and HCC-specific mortality. The main input data included incidence of HCC, sensitivity of screening test, and mortality from hepatic decompensation. Treatment modalities modeled included LTx, resection, and radiofrequency ablation. In the base case scenario, LTx would be available to prevent death in a certain proportion of patients. In the absence of surveillance, 68.2% of the cohort members died within 15 years; of these decedents, 25.1% died from HCC and 43.6% died from hepatic decompensation. With surveillance, the median survival improved from 10.4 years to 11.2 years. The number of subjects under surveillance needed to reduce one all-cause and one HCC-specific death over 15 years was 28 and 18, respectively. In sensitivity analyses, incidence of HCC and progression of cirrhosis had the strongest effect on the benefit of surveillance, whereas LTx availability had a negligible effect. CONCLUSION: HCC surveillance decreases all-cause and tumor-specific mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis regardless of LTx availability. In addition, incidence of HCC and sensitivity of surveillance test also had a substantial impact on the benefits of surveillance. (Hepatology 2018;68:78-88).

Outcome Comparisons Between Patients on Peritoneal Dialysis With and Without Polycystic Kidney Disease: A Nationwide Matched Cohort Study.

Polycystic kidney disease (PCKD) is the most common hereditary cause of end-stage renal disease. The complications associated with this disease may affect the performance of peritoneal dialysis (PD). The aim of this study was to compare the outcomes between patients on PD with PCKD and without PCKD.We extracted an incident cohort of adult (≥ 20 years old) patients on long-term PD from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients with PCKD were identified by specific diagnosis codes. We recorded baseline comorbidities, socioeconomic status, timing of referral to a nephrologist, prior hemodialysis history before PD, and the type of PD modalities. We compared the risk of death, technique failure, peritonitis, hospitalization, and outpatient visiting as well as overall medical expenditure between the patients with PCKD and a groups of patients without PCKD who were propensity-score matched (1:3). The analysis was carried out by various Cox regression models that considered competing risk and time-varying coefficients. We enrolled 139 patients with PCKD and 7739 patients without PCKD who started long-term PD between 1999 and 2010. Patients with PCKD were less comorbid and more often treated with automated PD. In the propensity-score matched analysis, both overall survival and technique survival did not differ between the patients and the result was similar for hospitalization and peritonitis after adjusting for the application of automated PD. Furthermore, the overall annual medical expenditures were similar between the patients with and without PCKD. PD patients with PCKD are comparable to PD patients without PCKD in terms of risk of death, peritonitis, technique failure, and hospitalization in the present study. Furthermore, the medical expenses of the 2 groups after initiation of PD are also indistinguishable.

Reproductive management through integration of PGD and MPS-based noninvasive prenatal screening/diagnosis for a family with GJB2-associated hearing impairment.

A couple with a proband child of GJB2 (encoding the gap junction protein connexin 26)-associated hearing impairment and a previous pregnancy miscarriage sought for a reproductive solution to bear a healthy child. Our study aimed to develop a customized preconception-to-neonate care trajectory to fulfill this clinical demand by integrating preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), and noninvasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) into the strategy. Auditory and genetic diagnosis of the proband child was carried out to identify the disease causative mutations. The couple then received in-vitro-fertilization treatment, and eight embryos were obtained for day 5 biopsy. PGD was performed by short-tandem-repeat linkage analysis and Sanger sequencing of GJB2 gene. Transfer of a GJB2c.235delC heterozygous embryo resulted in a singleton pregnancy. At the 13th week of gestation, genomic DNA (gDNA) from the trio family and cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from maternal plasma were obtained for assessment of fetal chromosomal aneuploidy and GJB2 mutations. NIPT and NIPD showed the absence of chromosomal aneuploidy and GJB2-associated disease in the fetus, which was later confirmed by invasive procedures and postnatal genetic/auditory diagnosis. This strategy successfully prevented the transmission of hearing impairment in the newborn, thus providing a valuable experience in reproductive management of similar cases and potentially other monogenic disorders.

The effect of the introduction of a nationwide DUR system where local DUR systems are operating--The Korean experience.

OBJECTIVE: Outpatient clinics in Korea usually have local DUR (drug utilisation review) systems, which are integrated with EMRs or health insurance claims submission systems. Whenever, the government announces a list of drug contraindications, each local DUR system loads the list and applies it in practice. In December 2010, a nationwide DUR system was introduced. This study is to investigate the impact of the nationwide DUR system on prescribing practices where local DUR systems are already operating. METHODS: Between January 2009 and December 2012 the monthly number of drugs per prescription was retrieved from the health insurance claims data warehouse at the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA). The monthly proportions of 3 DDI (drug-drug interaction) pairs, 6 drug-age contraindications, and 3 drug-pregnancy contraindications from January 2007 to December 2012, at the outpatient clinic level, were also retrieved. An interrupted time series analysis was used for controlling government announcements of drug contraindications. RESULTS: There was no difference in the number of drugs per prescription before and after the introduction of the nationwide DUR system. Most proportions of the 3 DDI pairs, 6 drug-age contraindications, and 3 drug-pregnancy contraindications, were significantly reduced following the government announcement of drug contraindications in the short term and/or long term. CONCLUSION: The number of drugs per prescription was not related to the nationwide DUR introduction in places where local DUR systems are operating. The introduction of duplicate guidelines, in locations where the guidelines were already well followed, is considered to be the main reason for this. Furthermore, the Doctor's ignorance of alerts, and their continued substitution of regulated drugs, for non-regulated drugs, likely played a role in nullifying the effectiveness of the nationwide DUR system.

Trends in the incidence of intestinal perforation in US dialysis patients (1992-2005).

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence of intestinal perforation in patients undergoing dialysis. Concerns exist that sevelamer hydrochloride may increase the risk of intestinal perforation. We examined long-term trends for the incidence of intestinal perforation among US dialysis patients. METHODS: We studied all dialysis patients (1992-2005) who had Medicare as primary payer. We used ICD-9 diagnosis code 569.83 to ascertain events of intestinal perforation. We studied (a) all perforations and (b) perforations that did not appear to be associated with specific causative conditions (specific diseases or iatrogenic procedures within 7 days of perforation). We used Poisson regression to model the annual number of intestinal perforations and tested for any changes in levels and temporal trends of incidence rates before versus after January 1, 1999. RESULTS: Overall, 1,060,132 patients contributed 2.7 million patient-years. We observed 12,355 events of intestinal perforation and 7,814 spontaneous perforations. The corresponding incidence rates were 4.6 (total) and 2.9 (spontaneous perforation) episodes per 1,000 person-years, respectively. For both outcome definitions, 30-day mortality was 42%. Unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates were not materially different over time. Formal tests for any changes in the level or slope of incidence comparing time periods before and after January 1, 1999, indicated no evidence for any changes in the incidence of intestinal perforation over time. CONCLUSIONS: In US dialysis patients, incidence of intestinal perforation was low, but associated with high short-term mortality. We did not detect any significant changes in the incidence of intestinal perforation before versus after approval of sevelamer hydrochloride in late 1998.

Epidemiology and management of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major world health problem because of the high incidence and case fatality rate. In most patients, the diagnosis of HCC is made at an advanced stage, which limits the application of curative treatments. Most HCCs develop in patients with underlying chronic liver disease. Chronic viral hepatitis B and C are the major causes of liver cirrhosis and HCC. Recent improvements in treatment of viral hepatitis and in methods for surveillance and therapy for HCC have contributed to better survival of patients with HCC. This article reviews the epidemiology, cause, prevention, clinical manifestations, surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment approach for HCC.

Are the investments in national HIV monitoring and evaluation systems paying off?

BACKGROUND: Concerted efforts and substantial financial resources have gone toward strengthening national monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems for HIV programs. This article explores whether those investments have made a difference in terms of data availability, quality and use for assessing whether national programs are on track to achieve the 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halting and reversing the HIV epidemic. METHODS: Descriptive analyses, including trends, of the National Composite Policy Index data and M&E expenditures were conducted. Global Fund funding continuation assessments were reviewed for concerns related to M&E. Availability of population-based survey data was assessed. RESULTS: There has been a marked increase in the number of countries where the prerequisites for a national HIV M&E system are in place and in human resources devoted to M&E at the national level. However, crucial gaps remain in M&E capacity, available M&E data, and data quality assurance. The extent to which data are used for program improvement is difficult to ascertain. There is a potential threat to sustaining the current momentum in M&E as governments have not committed long-term funding and current M&E-related expenditures are below the minimum needed to make M&E systems fully functional. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of rapid scale-up of basic HIV M&E systems, but if M&E is to fulfil its role in guiding optimal use of resources, ensuring effective HIV programs and providing evidence of progress toward the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the HIV epidemic, essential data gaps will need to be filled urgently and those data will need to be used to guide decision making.