Trends and prediction in the incidence rate of hepatitis C in Shandong Province in China from 2004 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C threatens human health and brings a heavy economic burden. Shandong Province is the second most populous province in China and has uneven regional economic development. Therefore, we analyzed the incidence rate trend and regional differences of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2004 to 2021. METHODS: The monthly and annual incidence rates of hepatitis C in Shandong Province from 2022 to 2030 were predicted by fitting Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and ARIMA-LSTM combined model. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2021, annual new cases of hepatitis C in Shandong Province increased from 635 to 5834, with a total of 61,707 cases. The incidence rate increased from 0.69/100 thousand in 2004 to 6.40/100 thousand in 2019, with a slight decrease in 2020 and 2021. The average annual incidence rate was 3.47/100 thousand. In terms of regional distribution, the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province was generally high in the west and low in the east. It is estimated that the hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province will be 9.21 per 100 thousand in 2030. CONCLUSION: The hepatitis C incidence rate in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend from 2004 to 2019 and a decreasing trend in 2020 and 2021. Significant regional variations in incidence rate existed. An upward trend in incidence rate is predicted from 2022 to 2030. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis C to achieve the goal of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030.

Prevalence of bilateral Discoid Lateral Menisci (DLM) in patients operated for symptomatic DLM with a follow-up study on their asymptomatic contralateral knees: a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) assessment.

BACKGROUND: The purpose was to investigate prevalence of bilateral discoid lateral menisci (DLM) in Han Chinese patients who received surgery for symptomatic DLM, as well as a follow-up study of their asymptomatic contralateral knees using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: A total of 110 patients [50 males and 60 females; average age: 21.95 ± 12.77 years (range: 6 to 67 years)] admitted to our hospital with symptomatic DLM were treated with arthroscopic surgery. The contralateral asymptomatic knees were evaluated for DLM by MRI. Postoperative clinical evaluation was performed using the Lysholm knee scoring scale and International Knee Documentation Committee subjective knee evaluation. RESULTS: Eighty (72.73%) of 110 symptomatic DLM patients had bilateral DLM, of which 68 (85%) were of homotype (same type). Fourteen of 80 bilateral DLM patients were symptomatic and received operations in both knees. Twelve of remaining 66 bilateral DLM patients with asymptomatic one knee underwent a second arthroscopic surgery as their asymptomatic knees became symptomatic over the five-year interim. Of these 12 cases, seven exhibited no shift and five showed posterocentral meniscal shift. Furthermore, at least two cases showed progression from asymptomatic grade II to symptomatic grade III over the interim. All patients showed significant improvement after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The bilateral DLM rate of Han Chinese patients with symptomatic DLM was relatively high at 72.7 %, and 85 % of those were of homotype.