Personalized assessment of cervical length improves prediction of spontaneous preterm birth: a standard and a percentile calculator.

BACKGROUND: A sonographic short cervix (length <25 mm during midgestation) is the most powerful predictor of preterm birth. Current clinical practice assumes that the same cervical length cutoff value should apply to all women when screening for spontaneous preterm birth, yet this approach may be suboptimal. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) create a customized cervical length standard that considers relevant maternal characteristics and gestational age at sonographic examination and (2) assess whether the customization of cervical length evaluation improves the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective analysis comprises a cohort of 7826 pregnant women enrolled in a longitudinal protocol between January 2006 and April 2017 at the Detroit Medical Center. Study participants met the following inclusion criteria: singleton pregnancy, ≥1 transvaginal sonographic measurements of the cervix, delivery after 20 weeks of gestation, and available relevant demographics and obstetrical history information. Data from women without a history of preterm birth or cervical surgery who delivered at term without progesterone treatment (N=5188) were used to create a customized standard of cervical length. The prediction of the primary outcome, spontaneous preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation, was assessed in a subset of pregnancies (N=7336) that excluded cases with induced labor before 37 weeks of gestation. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and sensitivity at a fixed false-positive rate were calculated for screening at 20 to 23 6/7, 24 to 27 6/7, 28 to 31 6/7, and 32 to 35 6/7 weeks of gestation in asymptomatic patients. Survival analysis was used to determine which method is better at predicting imminent delivery among symptomatic women. RESULTS: The median cervical length remained fundamentally unchanged until 20 weeks of gestation and subsequently decreased nonlinearly with advancing gestational age among women who delivered at term. The effects of parity and maternal weight and height on the cervical length were dependent on the gestational age at ultrasound examination (interaction, P<.05 for all). Parous women had a longer cervix than nulliparous women, and the difference increased with advancing gestation after adjusting for maternal weight and height. Similarly, maternal weight was nonlinearly associated with a longer cervix, and the effect was greater later in gestation. The sensitivity at a 10% false-positive rate for prediction of spontaneous preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation by a short cervix ranged from 29% to 40% throughout pregnancy, yet it increased to 50%, 50%, 53%, and 54% at 20 to 23 6/7, 24 to 27 6/7, 28 to 31 6/7, and 32 to 35 6/7 weeks of gestation, respectively, for a low, customized percentile (McNemar test, P<.001 for all). When a cervical length <25 mm was compared to the customized screening at 20 to 23 6/7 weeks of gestation by using a customized percentile cutoff value that ensured the same negative likelihood ratio for both screening methods, the customized approach had a significantly higher (about double) positive likelihood ratio in predicting spontaneous preterm birth at <33, <34, <35, <36, and <37 weeks of gestation. Among symptomatic women, the difference in survival between women with a customized cervical length percentile of ≥10th and those with a customized cervical length percentile of <10th was greater than the difference in survival between women with a cervical length ≥25 mm and those with a cervical length <25 mm. CONCLUSION: Compared to the use of a cervical length <25 mm, a customized cervical length assessment (1) identifies more women at risk of spontaneous preterm birth and (2) improves the distinction between patients at risk for impending preterm birth in those who have an episode of preterm labor.

Individualized growth assessment: conceptual framework and practical implementation for the evaluation of fetal growth and neonatal growth outcome.

Fetal growth abnormalities can pose significant consequences on perinatal morbidity and mortality of nonanomalous fetuses. The most widely accepted definition of fetal growth restriction is an estimated fetal weight less than the 10th percentile for gestational age according to population-based criteria. However, these criteria do not account for the growth potential of an individual fetus, nor do they effectively separate constitutionally small fetuses from ones that are malnourished. Furthermore, conventional approaches typically evaluate estimated fetal weight at a single time point, rather than using serial scans, to evaluate growth. This article provides a conceptual framework for the individualized growth assessment of a fetus/neonate based on measuring second-trimester growth velocity of fetal size parameters to estimate growth potential. These estimates specify size models that generate individualized third-trimester size trajectories and predict birth characteristics. Comparisons of measured and predicted values are used to separate normally growing fetuses from those with growth abnormalities. This can be accomplished with individual anatomical parameters or sets of parameters. A practical and freely available software (Individualized Growth Assessment Program) has been developed to allow implementation of this approach for clinical and research purposes.

Personalized third-trimester fetal growth evaluation: comparisons of individualized growth assessment, percentile line and conditional probability methods.

OBJECTIVE: To compare third-trimester size trajectory prediction errors (average transformed percent deviations) for three individualized fetal growth assessment methods. METHODS: This study utilized longitudinal measurements of nine directly measured size parameters in 118 fetuses with normal neonatal growth outcomes. Expected value (EV) function coefficients and variance components were obtained using two-level random coefficient modeling. Growth models (IGA) or EV coefficients and variance components (PLM and CPM) were used to calculate predicted values at ∼400 third-trimester time points. Percent deviations (%Dev) calculated at these time points using all three methods were expressed as percentages of IGA MA-specific reference ranges [transformed percent deviations (T%Dev)]. Third-trimester T%Dev values were averaged (aT%Dev) for each parameter. Mean ± standard deviation's for sets of aT%Dev values derived from each method (IGA, PLM and CPM) were calculated and compared. RESULTS: Mean aT%Dev values for nine parameters were: (i) IGA: -4.3 to 5.2% (9/9 not different from zero); (ii) PLM: -32.7 to 25.6% (4/9 not different from zero) and (iii) CPM: -20.4 to 17.4% (5/9 not different from zero). Seven of nine systematic deviations from zero were statistically significant when IGA values were compared to either PLM or CPM values. Variabilities were smaller for IGA when compared to those for PLM or CPM, with (i) 5/9 being statistically significant (IGA versus PLM), (ii) 2/9 being statistically significant (IGA versus CPM) and (iii) 5/9 being statistically significant (PLM versus CPM). CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences in the agreement between predicted third-trimester size parameters and their measured values were found for the three methods tested. With most parameters, IGA gave smaller mean aT%Dev values and smaller variabilities. The CPM method was better than the PLM approach for most but not all parameters. These results suggest that third-trimester size trajectories are best characterized by IGA in fetuses with normal growth outcomes.

A modified prenatal growth assessment score for the evaluation of fetal growth in the third trimester using single and composite biometric parameters.

OBJECTIVE: To define modified Prenatal Growth Assessment Scores (mPGAS) for single and composite biometric parameters and determine their reference ranges in normal fetuses. METHODS: Nine anatomical parameters (ap) were measured and the weight estimated (EWTa, EWTb) in a longitudinal study of 119 fetuses with normal neonatal growth outcomes. Expected third trimester size trajectories, obtained from second trimester Rossavik size models, were used in calculating Percent Deviations (% Dev's) and their age-specific reference ranges in each fetus. The components of individual % Dev's values outside their reference ranges, designated +iapPGAS, -iapPGAS, were averaged to give +apPGAS and -apPGAS values for the 3rd trimester. The +iapPGAS and -iapPGAS values for different combinations of ap (c1a (HC, AC, FDL, ThC, EWTa), c1b (HC, AC, FDL, ThC, EWTb), c2 (ThC, ArmC, AVol, TVol), c3 (HC, AC, FDL, EWTa)) were then averaged to give +icPGAS and -icPGAS values at different time points or at the end of the third trimester (+cPGAS, -cPGAS). Values for iapPGAS, ic1bPGAS, and ic2PGAS were compared to their respective apPGAS or cPGAS reference ranges. RESULTS: All mPGAS values had one 95% range boundary at 0.0%. Upper boundaries of 1D +apPGAS values ranged from 0.0% (HC) to +0.49% (ThC) and were +0.06%, +2.3% and +1.8% for EWT, AVol and TVol, respectively. Comparable values for -apPGAS were 0.0% (BPD, FDL, HDL), to -0.58% (ArmC), -0.13% (EWT), -0.8% (AVol), and 0.0% (TVol). The +cPGAS, 95% reference range upper boundaries varied from +0.36% (c1b) to +0.89% (c2). Comparable values for -cPGAS lower boundaries were -0.17% (c1b) to -0.43% (c2). CONCLUSIONS: The original PGAS concept has now been extended to individual biometric parameters and their combinations. With the standards provided, mPGAS values can now be tested to see if detection of different types of third trimester growth problems is improved.

Individualized fetal growth assessment: critical evaluation of key concepts in the specification of third trimester size trajectories.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize second and third trimester fetal growth using Individualized Growth Assessment methods in a larger cohort of fetuses with normal neonatal growth outcomes. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal study of 119 pregnancies was performed from 18 weeks, MA, to delivery. Measurements of several 1D and 3D fetal size parameters were obtained from 3D volume data sets at 3-4 week intervals. Regression analyses were used to determine Start Points (SP) and Rossavik model (P = c {t} (k + st)) coefficients c. k and s for each parameter in each fetus. Second trimester growth velocity reference ranges were determined and size model specification functions re-established, the latter used to generate individual size models. Actual measurements were compared to predicted third trimester size trajectories using Percent Deviations. New age-specific reference ranges for the Percent Deviations of each parameter were defined using 2-level statistical modeling. RESULTS: Rossavik models fit the data for all parameters very well (R(2): 99%), with SP's and k values similar to those found in much smaller cohorts. The c* values were strongly related to the second trimester slope (R(2): 97%), as was predicted s* to estimated c* (R(2): 54--95%). Rossavik models predicted third trimester growth with systematic errors close to 0%; random errors (95% range) ranged between 5.7 and 10.9% and 20.0 and 24.3% for 1D and 3D parameters, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: IGA procedures for evaluating second and third trimester growth are now established based on a larger cohort (4-6 fold larger). New, more rigorously defined, age-specific standards for the evaluation of third trimester size deviations are now available for nine anatomical parameters and a weight estimation procedure that incorporates a soft tissue parameter (fractional thigh volume). These results provide a means for more reliably assessing fetal growth on an individualized basis, thus minimizing the effect of biological differences in growth.

The relationship of newborn adiposity to fetal growth outcome based on birth weight or the modified neonatal growth assessment score.

OBJECTIVES: (1) Develop reference ranges of neonatal adiposity using air displacement plethysmography. (2) Use new reference ranges for neonatal adiposity to compare two different methods of evaluating neonatal nutritional status. METHODS: Three hundred and twenty-four normal neonates (35-41 weeks post-menstrual age) had body fat (%BF) and total fat mass (FM, g) measured using air displacement plethysmography shortly after delivery. Results were stratified for 92 of these neonates with corresponding fetal biometry using two methods for classifying nutritional status: (1) population-based weight percentiles; and (2) a modified neonatal growth assessment score (m(3)NGAS(51)). RESULTS: At the 50th percentile, %BF varied from 7.7% (35 weeks) to 11.8% (41 weeks), while the corresponding 50th percentiles for total FM were 186-436 g. Among the subset of 92 neonates, no significant differences in adiposity were found between small for gestational age (SGA), appropriate for gestational age (AGA), and large for gestational age (LGA) groups using population-based weight standards. Classification of the same neonates using m(3)NGAS(51) showed significant differences in mean %BF between corresponding groups. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based weight criteria for neonatal nutritional status can lead to misclassifications on the basis of adiposity. A neonatal growth assessment score, that considers the growth potential of several anatomic parameters, appears to more effectively classify under- and over-nourished newborns.

Should bilateral uterine artery notching be used in the risk assessment for preeclampsia, small-for-gestational-age, and gestational hypertension?

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the value of bilateral uterine artery notching in the second trimester in the risk assessment for preeclampsia, gestational hypertension, and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) without preeclampsia. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 4190 singleton pregnancies that underwent ultrasound examination between 23 and 25 weeks' gestation. The 95th percentiles of the mean pulsatility index (PI) and resistive index (RI) of both uterine arteries were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine if bilateral uterine artery notching is an independent explanatory variable for the occurrence of preeclampsia, early-onset preeclampsia (34 weeks), gestational hypertension, and delivery of an SGA neonate without preeclampsia, while controlling for confounding factors. RESULTS: (1) The prevalence of preeclampsia, early-onset preeclampsia, late-onset preeclampsia, SGA, and gestational hypertension were 3.4%, 0.5%, 2.9%, 10%, and 7.9%, respectively; (2) 7.2% of the study population had bilateral uterine artery notching; and (3) bilateral uterine artery notching was an independent explanatory variable for the development of preeclampsia (odds ratio [OR], 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.28-3.36), early-onset preeclampsia (OR, 4.47; 95% CI, 1.50-13.35), and gestational hypertension (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.02-2.26), but not for late-onset preeclampsia or SGA. CONCLUSIONS: Bilateral uterine notching between 23 and 25 weeks' gestation is an independent risk factor for the development of early-onset preeclampsia and gestational hypertension. Thus, bilateral uterine artery notching should be considered in the assessment of risk for the development of these pregnancy complications.