Disease Burden and Prediction Analysis of Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung Cancer Attributable to Residential Radon, Solid Fuels, and Particulate Matter Pollution Under Different Sociodemographic Transitions From 1990 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the impact of epidemiologic and sociodemographic changes in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer associated with residential radon, solid fuels, and particulate matter. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the influencing factors of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer disease burden attributable to the three pollutants? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and sociodemographic index (SDI) values were collected from 21 regions, and restricted cubic splines and quantile regression were used to investigate the relationship between ASMR or age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and SDI. Additionally, five countries with different SDIs were selected, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the ASMR trends from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: High SDI quintiles were associated with increased residential radon pollution. The disease burden attributed to these three pollutants was particularly severe in the middle SDI quintiles. Older adults aged 80 to 89 years had the highest age-specific mortality, and the disease burden was greater in male patients than in female patients with these cancers attributed to the pollutants. The highest ASMR attributable to particulate matter when the SDI was 0.7. As the SDI increased, the disease burden caused by radon increased, whereas the burden caused by solid fuels decreased. Projections have indicated a rise in the death burden in patients with this cancer from particulate pollution in China, India, and Uganda over the next decade. INTERPRETATION: The disease burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer attributed to the three pollutants was influenced by SDI, sex, and age. Older men are more susceptible to be affected. More preventive interventions may be required for men at younger ages to reduce the high death burden of older men. However, it is necessary to give due attention to women in specific countries in the future.

Trends and patterns in stroke incidence, mortality, DALYs and case-fatality by sociodemographic index worldwide: an age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke is a significant public health burden worldwide. This study aimed to explore the trends and patterns of stroke incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and case-fatality percent (CFP) worldwide from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: Age-period-cohort analysis. METHODS: Trends in stroke burden worldwide were evaluated using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In addition, the relationship between the burden of stroke and sociodemographic index (SDI) was examined by quantile regression. Age, period and cohort patterns in stroke burden across different SDI groups were estimated using age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of stroke incidence, mortality and DALYs declined significantly worldwide, with decreases of -16.89% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: -18.41 to -15.29), -36.43% (95% UI: -41.65 to -31.20) and -35.23% (95% UI: -40.49 to -30.49), respectively. Regions with ASRs in the 75th percentile and below experienced significant decreases in ASRs with increasing SDI. After 2014, there was a stable or slightly increased period effect for stroke incidence in all groups, while mortality, DALYs and CFP increased only in the high SDI group. The cohort effect of stroke incidence remained constant in the high SDI group from the 1960-1964 cohort onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Although high SDI regions had a lower stroke burden and a faster overall decline in burden, the recent relative risk data suggest a potential deceleration in the progress of reducing stroke burden in these areas. There is a need for more active measures to reduce the stroke burden in areas with the highest incidence, mortality and DALYs, as increasing SDI alone cannot lower the burden in these regions.

Estimating disparities in breast cancer screening programs towards mortality, case fatality, and DALYs across BRICS-plus.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies over the past four decades have revealed that breast cancer screening (BCS) significantly reduces breast cancer (BC) mortality. However, in BRICS-plus countries, the association between BCS and BC case fatality and disability are unknown. This study examines the association of different BCS approaches with age-standardized mortality, case-fatality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, as well as with other biological and sociodemographic risk variables, across BRICS-plus from a national and economic perspective. METHODS: In this ecological study applying mixed-effect multilevel regression models, a country-specific dataset was analyzed by combining data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 on female age-standardized BC mortality, incidence, and DALYs rates with information on national/regional BCS availability (against no such program or only a pilot program) and BCS type (only self-breast examination (SBE) and/or clinical breast examination (CBE) [SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE with mammographic screening availability [MM and/or SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE/mammographic with digital mammography and/or ultrasound (US) [DMM/US and/or previous tests] in BRICS-plus countries. RESULTS: Compared to self/clinical breast examinations (SBE/CBE) across BRICS-plus, more complex BCS program availability was the most significant predictor of decreased mortality [MM and/or SBE/CBE: - 2.64, p < 0.001; DMM/US and/or previous tests: - 1.40, p < 0.001]. In the BRICS-plus, CVD presence, high BMI, second-hand smoke, and active smoking all contributed to an increase in BC mortality and DALY rate. High-income and middle-income regions in BRICS-plus had significantly lower age-standardized BC mortality, case-fatality, and DALYs rates than low-income regions when nationwide BC screening programs were implemented. CONCLUSIONS: The availability of mammography (digital or traditional) and BCS is associated with breast cancer burden in BRICS-plus countries, with regional variations. In light of high-quality evidence from previous causal studies, these findings further support the preventive role of mammography screening for BCS at the national level. Intervening on BCS related risk factors may further reduce the disease burden associated with BC.

Risk assessment of dietary factors in global pattern of ischemic heart disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years over 30 years.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD)-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by dietary factors, as well as the influencing factors with age, period, and cohort effects, in regions with different social-demographic status from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We extracted data on IHD mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) related to dietary risks from 1990 to 2019 as IHD burden measures. Hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze age- and time-related trends and the interaction between different dietary factors on the risk of IHD mortality and DALYs. Results: Globally, there were 9.2 million IHD deaths and 182 million DALYs in 2019. Both the ASRs of death and DALYs declined from 1990 to 2019 (percentage change: -30.8% and -28.6%, respectively), particularly in high and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) areas. Low-whole-grain, low-legume, and high-sodium diets were the three main dietary factors that increased the risk of IHD burden. Advanced age [RR (95%CI): 1.33 (1.27, 1.39)] and being male [1.11 (1.06, 1.16)] were independent risk factors for IHD mortality worldwide and in all SDI regions. After controlling for age effects, IHD risk showed a negative period effect overall. Poor diets were positively associated with increased risk of death but were not yet statistically significant. Interactions between dietary factors and advanced age were observed in all regions after adjusting for related variables. In people aged 55 and above, low intake of whole grains was associated with an increased risk of IHD death [1.28 (1.20, 1.36)]. DALY risks showed a similar but more obvious trend. Conclusion: IHD burden remains high, with significant regional variations. The high IHD burden could be attributed to advanced age, sex (male), and dietary risk factors. Dietary habits in different SDI regions may have varying effects on the global burden of IHD. In areas with lower SDI, it is recommended to pay more attention to dietary problems, particularly in the elderly, and to consider how to improve dietary patterns in order to reduce modifiable risk factors.

Unmet chronic care needs and insufficient nurse staffing to achieve universal health coverage in China: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Although China has made impressive progress towards Universal Health Coverage through the health system reform plan since 2009, chronic disease prevention and control implementations are still inadequate to meet the need at large. This study aims to quantify the acute and chronic care needs in China and examine the human resources for health and financial protection for the population to achieve Universal Health Coverage. METHODS: The data on disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability, and years of life lost in China were disaggregated from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 by age and sex based on acute care need or chronic care need. An auto-regressive integrated moving average model was deployed to predict the supply gap of physicians, nurses and midwives from 2020 to 2050. Out-of-pocket health expenditure was compared among China, Russia, Germany, the US, and Singapore to examine the current status of financial protection. RESULTS: In 2019, conditions requiring chronic care accounted for 86.4% of all-cause, all-age disability-adjusted life years in China, while acute-care-need conditions accounted for 11.3%. Approximate 25.57% of disability-adjusted life years in communicable diseases and 94.32% in non-communicable diseases were caused by chronic care need conditions. Chronic care-need conditions accounted for more than 80% of both man and woman's disease burden. The proportion of disability-adjusted life years and years of life lost attributable to chronic care was greater than 90% in people aged 25 and up. The nurse and midwife supply will be in absolute shortage and unable to achieve effective universal health coverage effective coverage of 80% or 90% from 2020 to 2050, while the physician supply will be sufficient to maintain effective universal health coverage of 80% and reach 90% from 2036. The out-of-pocket health expenditure decreased with time but was still relatively higher than that of Germany, the US, and Singapore. CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrates the chronic care needs outweigh those for acute care in China. Nurse supply and the financial protection for the poor were still inadequate to achieve Universal Health Coverage. Better workforce planning and concerted actions on chronic care prevention and control should be taken to meet the population's chronic care needs.

Burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease attributable to non-optimal temperature from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been the third leading cause of death worldwide. As the traditional risk factors (like smoking and ambient air pollution) on the burden of COPD being well characterized, the burden of COPD due to non-optimal temperature has been widely concerned. In this study, we extracted the relevant burden data of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature from GBD 2019 and adopted estimated annual percent changes, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and age-period-cohort model to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns, relationships with socio-demographic level, and the independent effects of age, period and cohort from 1990 to 2019. In brief, the global COPD burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures showed declining trends but was still more severe in the elderly, males, Asia, and regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI). And cold had a greater burden than heat. The inverted U-shape is expected for the relationship between SDI and the burden of COPD caused by non-optimal temperatures according to the GPR model, with the inflection point around SDI 0.45. Besides, the improvements were observed in period and cohort effects but were relatively limited in low and low-middle SDI regions. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen this burden predominantly among lower SDI countries.

Disability weight measurement for the severity of different diseases in Wuhan, China.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of the Chinese burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weight (DW) that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 DW study indicates that it is limited by lack of geographic variation in DW data and by the current measurement methodology. We aim to estimate DW for a set of health states from major diseases in the Wuhan population. METHODS: We conducted the DW measurement study for 206 health states through a household survey with computer-assisted face-to-face interviews and a web-based survey. Based on GBD 2013 DW study, paired comparison (PC) and Population health equivalence (PHE) method was used and different PC/PHE questions were randomly assigned to each respondent. In statistical analysis, the PC data was analyzed by probit regression. The probit regression results will be anchored by results from the PHE data analyzed by interval regression on the DW scale units between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (loss equivalent to death). RESULTS: A total of 2610 and 3140 individuals were included in the household and web-based survey, respectively. The results from the total pooled data showed health state "mild anemia" (DW = 0.005, 95% UI 0.000-0.027) or "allergic rhinitis (hay fever)" (0.005, 95% UI 0.000-0.029) had the lowest DW and "heroin and other opioid dependence, severe" had the highest DW (0.699, 95% UI 0.579-0.827). A high correlation coefficient (Pearson's r = 0.876; P < 0.001) for DWs of same health states was observed between Wuhan's survey and GBD 2013 DW survey. Health states referred to mental symptom, fatigue, and the residual category of other physical symptoms were statistically significantly associated with a lower Wuhan's DWs than the GBD's DWs. Health states with disfigurement and substance use symptom had a higher DW in Wuhan population than the GBD 2013 study. CONCLUSIONS: This set of DWs could be used to calculate local diseases burden for health policy-decision in Wuhan population. The DW differences between the GBD's survey and Wuhan's survey suggest that there might be some contextual or culture factors influencing assessment on the severity of diseases.

Global Epidemiological Patterns in the Burden of Main Non-Communicable Diseases, 1990-2019: Relationships With Socio-Demographic Index.

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of the global burden caused by main NCDs along the socio-economic development. Methods: We extracted relevant data from GBD 2019. The estimated annual percentage changes, quantile regression and limited cubic splines were adopted to estimate temporal trends and relationships with socio-demographic index. Results: NCDs accounted for 74.36% of global all-cause deaths in 2019. The main NCDs diseases were estimated for cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and chronic respiratory diseases, with deaths of 18.56 (17.08-19.72) million, 10.08 (9.41-10.66) million and 3.97 (3.58-4.30) million, respectively. The death burden of three diseases gradually decreased globally over time. Regional and sex variations existed worldwide. Besides, the death burden of CVD showed the inverted U-shaped associations with SDI, while neoplasms were positively correlated with SDI, and CRD showed the negative association. Conclusion: NCDs remain a crucial public health issue worldwide, though several favorable trends of CVD, neoplasms and CRD were observed. Regional and sex disparities still existed. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen NCDs burden, predominantly among lower SDI countries.

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian nations make up the BRICS-Plus, a group of developing countries that account for about half of the world's population and contribute significantly to the global illness burden. This study aimed to analyzed the epidemiological burden of female breast cancer (BC) across the BRICS-Plus from 1990 to 2019 and studied the associations with age, period, birth cohort and countries' sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods: The BC mortality and incidence estimates came from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated cohort and period effects in BC outcomes between 1990 and 2019 using age-period-cohort (APC) modeling. The maximum likelihood (ML) of the APC-model Poisson with log (Y) based on the natural-spline function was used to estimate the rate ratio (RR). We used annualized rate of change (AROC) to quantify change over the previous 30 years in BC across BRICS-Plus and compare it to the global. Results: In 2019, there were about 1.98 million female BC cases (age-standardized rate of 45.86 [95% UI: 41.91, 49.76]) and 0.69 million deaths (age-standardized rate of 15.88 [95% UI: 14.66, 17.07]) around the globe. Among them, 45.4% of incident cases and 51.3% of deaths were attributed to the BRICS-Plus. China (41.1% cases and 26.5% deaths) and India (16.1% cases and 23.1% deaths) had the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths among the BRICS-Plus nations in 2019. Pakistan came in third with 5.6% cases and 8.8% deaths. Over the past three decades, from 1990 to 2019, the BRICS-Plus region's greatest AROC was seen in Lesotho (2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99). The birth cohort impacts on BC vary significantly among the BRICS-Plus nations. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tended to decline in all BRICS-Plus nations, notably in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (China-ASEAN FTA) countries, and the drop in risk in the most recent cohort was lowest in China and the Maldives. Additionally, there was a substantial negative link between SDI and case fatality rate (r1990= -0.91, p<0.001; r2019= -0.89, p<0.001) in the BRICS-Plus in both 1990 and 2019, with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) nations having the highest case fatality rate. Conclusions: The BC burden varies remarkably between different BRICS-Plus regions. Although the BRICS' efforts to regulate BC succeeded, the overall improvements lagged behind those in high-income Asia-Pacific nations. Every BRICS-Plus country should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies directed at different priority groups, according to BRIC-Plus and other high-burden nations.

Trends in Deaths Attributable to Smoking in China, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States From 1990 to 2019.

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the long-term trends of deaths attributable smoking in China, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). Methods: Using 2000-2019 death data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, we estimated age-period-cohort effects on smoking attributable mortality, and decomposed of differences in smoking-attributable deaths in 1990 and 2019 into demographic factors. Results: From 1990 to 2019, smoking-attributable deaths increased in China, which was due to population growth and demographic aging. From 1990 to 2019, both age-standardized smoking attributable mortality rates trended downward across countries. Among four countries, age rate ratios (RRs) for smoking-attributable mortality increased with age, while period and cohort RRs decreased with year. Conclusion: The age-standardized mortality rates, period effects and cohort effects of smoking attributable mortality in China, Japan, UK, and US have been declining in both sexes from 1990 to 2019, which suggests that smoke-free policies, help to quit tobacco use, improved health education, more accessible healthcare service, and increased taxes have been effective. Additionally, increased smoking attributable deaths in elderly should got more attention.

The Global Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Attributable to Tobacco: A Secondary Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Objectives: Growing epidemiological studies have reported the relationship between tobacco and health loss among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study aimed to explore the secular trend and spatial distribution of the T2D burden attributable to tobacco on a global scale to better understand regional disparities and judge the gap between current conditions and expectations. Methods: As a secondary analysis, we extracted data of tobacco-attributable T2D burden from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Joinpoint regression was adopted to determine the secular trend of age-standardized rates (ASR), with average annual percentage change (AAPC). Gaussian process regression (GPR) was used to explore the average expected relationship between ASRs and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Spatial autocorrelation was used to indicate if there is clustering of age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) with Moran's I value. Multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) was to investigate the spatial distribution and scales of influencing factors in ASDR attributable to tobacco, with the regression coefficients for each influencing factor among 204 countries. Results: Tobacco posed a challenge to global T2D health, particularly for the elderly and men from lower SDI regions. For women, mortality attributable to secondhand smoke was higher than smoking. A downward trend in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of T2D attributable to tobacco was observed (AAPCs= -0.24; 95% CI -0.30 to -0.18), while the ASDR increased globally since 1990 (AAPCs= 0.19; 0.11 to 0.27). Oceania, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia had the highest ASMRs and ASDRs, exceeding expectations based on the SDI. Also, "high-high" clusters were mainly observed in South Africa and Southeast Asian countries, which means a high-ASDR country is surrounded by high-ASDR neighborhoods in the above areas. According to MGWR model, smoking prevalence was the most sensitive influencing factor, with regression coefficients from 0.15 to 1.80. Conclusion: The tobacco-attributable burden of T2D should be considered as an important health issue, especially in low-middle and middle-SDI regions. Meanwhile, secondhand smoke posed a greater risk to women. Regional disparities existed, with hot spots mainly concentrated in South Africa and Southeast Asian countries.

Burden of diabetes and kidney disease attributable to non-optimal temperature from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: This study quantitatively described the disease burden of diabetes and kidney disease attributable to non-optimal temperatures and explored the influencing factors. METHODS: We quantitatively described the mortality burden of diabetes and kidney disease attributable to non-optimal temperatures in six countries (China, USA, South Africa, Australia, Iraq, Portugal), and compare trends in mortality in six countries from 1990 to 2019. We used the APC model to analyse age, period, and cohort effects on mortality in six countries. We used restricted cubic splines and quantile regression to analyse the association of SDI with mortality and YLL using data from 21 regions in the world. RESULTS: The mortality rates of diabetes and kidney disease in the six countries in 2019 were 1.72% (Australia), 1.83% (China), 2.99% (USA), 3% (Portugal), 7.45% (South Africa) and 8.71% (Iraq) attributable to non-optimal temperatures. Cold was more harmful than heat. The mortality, YLLs of diabetes and kidney disease of male were higher than females. The mortality rate showed an upwards trend with age. The period effect had little changes or showed a slight upwards trend. The cohort effect showed a downwards trend. The regions with higher mortality or YLLs rates were mainly had SDI values of 0.45-0.80. CONCLUSIONS: Among the death burdens of diabetes and kidney disease attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold had a greater burden than heat. The burden of death was affected by sex, age, period, cohort, and SDI.

Impact of Particulate Matter on Hospitalizations for Respiratory Diseases and Related Economic Losses in Wuhan, China.

Background: Prior studies have reported the effects of particulate matter (PM) on respiratory disease (RD) hospitalizations, but few have quantified PM-related economic loss in the central region of China. This investigation aimed to assess the impacts of PM pollution on the risk burden and economic loss of patients admitted with RD. Methods: Daily cases of RD admitted to the hospital from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2020 were collected from two class-A tertiary hospitals in Wuhan, China. Time series analysis incorporated with a generalized additive model (GAM) was adopted to assess the impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and inhalable particulate matter (PM10) exposures on patients hospitalized with RD. Stratified analyses were performed to investigate underlying effect modification of RD risk by sex, age, and season. The cost of illness (COI) approach was applied to evaluate the related economic losses caused by PM. Results: A total of 51,676 inpatients with a primary diagnosis of RD were included for the analysis. PM2.5 and PM10 exposures were associated with increased risks of hospitalizations for RD. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that men and children in the 0-14 years age group were more vulnerable to PM, and the adverse effects were promoted by low temperature in the cold season. A 152.4 million China Yuan (CNY) economic loss could be avoided if concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 declined to 10 and 20 µg/m3, respectively. Conclusions: PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were positively associated with RD hospitalization. Men and children were more vulnerable to PM. Effective air pollution control measures can reduce hospitalizations significantly and save economic loss substantially.

Epidemiological and sociodemographic transitions of female breast cancer incidence, death, case fatality and DALYs in 21 world regions and globally, from 1990 to 2017: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Introduction: Breast cancer (BC) is the most widely studied disease due to its higher prevalence, heterogeneity and mortality. Objectives: This study aimed to compare female BC trends among 21 world regions and globally over 28 year of data and to assess the association between sociodemographic transitions and female BC risks. Methods: We used Global burden of disease study data and measure the female BC burden according to 21 world regions and sociodemographic indices (SDI). Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to estimate time and cohort trend of BC in different SDI regions. Results: By world regions, age-standardised rate of female BC incidence were high in high-income-North America (ASR, 92.9; (95 %UI, 89.2, 96.6)), Western Europe (84.7; (73.4, 97.2)) and Australia (86; (81.7, 90.2)) in 2017. Whereas this rate was significantly increased by 89.5% between 1990 and 2017 in East Asia. We observed negative association between SDI and death, and DALYs in 25th and below percentiles of death and DALYs for the worldwide regions. Further, there was observed a strong negative correlation between SDI and case fatality percent (r2017 = -0.93; r1990 = -0.92) in both 2017 and 1990 worldwide and highest case fatality percentage was observed in Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tends to decrease most noticeably in high middle SDI countries, and the reduction of the risk of case-fatality rate in the recent cohort was the lowest in the low SDI countries. Conclusions: Remarkable variations exist among various regions in BC burden. There is a need to reduce the health burden from BC in less developed and under developing countries, because under-developed countries are facing higher degree of health-related burden. Public health managers should execute more classified and cost-effective screening and treatment interferences to lessen the deaths caused by BC, predominantly among middle and low SDI countries having inadequate healthcare supplies.

Secular trends in chronic respiratory diseases mortality in Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa: a comparative study across main BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: As the emerging economies, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) shared 61.58% of the global chronic respiratory diseases (CRD) deaths in 2017. This study aimed to assess the secular trends in CRD mortality and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort across main BRICS countries. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and analyzed using the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019. The net drifts, local drifts, longitudinal age curves, period/cohort rate ratios (RRs) were obtained through the APC model. RESULTS: In 2019, the CRD deaths across the BRICS were 2.39 (95%UI 1.95 to 2.84) million, accounting for 60.07% of global CRD deaths. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma remained the leading causes of CRD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) have declined across the BRICS since 1990, with the most apparent decline in China. Meanwhile, the downward trends in CRD death counts were observed in China and Russia. The overall net drifts per year were obvious in China (-5.89%; -6.06% to -5.71%), and the local drift values were all below zero in all age groups for both sexes. The age effect of CRD presented increase with age, and the period and cohort RRs were following downward trends over time across countries. Similar trends were observed in COPD and asthma. The improvement of CRD mortality was the most obvious in China, especially in period and cohort effects. While South Africa showed the most rapid increase with age across all CRD categories, and the period and cohort effects were flat. CONCLUSIONS: BRICS accounted for a large proportion of CRD deaths, with China and India alone contributing more than half of the global CRD deaths. However, the declines in ASMR and improvements of period and cohort effects have been observed in both sexes and all age groups across main BRICS countries. China stands out for its remarkable reduction in CRD mortality and its experience may help reduce the burden of CRD in developing countries.

Evaluation of lifestyle risk factor differences in global patterns of breast cancer mortality and DALYs during 1990-2017 using hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Statistical evidence on breast cancer (BC) burden related to health and lifestyle risk factors are valuable for health policy-making. This study aimed to compare the trends in BC mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to various health and life style risk factors among different world's regions according to sociodemographic index (SDI). METHODS: We extracted the age-standardized and age-specific rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC during 1990-2017 using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 global burden of disease (GBD) study. We performed hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis to estimate age- and time-related trends, and effect of interactions between different risk factors on BC risk. RESULTS: During 1990-2017, the age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs of women BC was increasing in less developed and under developing regions. The risk factor alcohol use [RR 51.3(95%CI 17.6-149.7)] and smoking [5.9(2.0-17.3)] were significantly highly contributor to increased mortality risk in high SDI region. Whereas in the low-SDI region, the greater mortality risk was observed in alcohol use [6.9(2.4-17)] and high FPG [2.7(1.5-3.1)]-related deaths. The adjusting for individual age, period, and risk factor effects, the significant interaction effect between metabolic risk factors and older ages were observed in all SDI regions and globally as well. However, an increasing cohort effect of alcohol, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and smoking-related death, and DALYs was observed during 1960 to 1985 cohorts among low-SDI regions. CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized rates of mortality and DALYs due to BC has been increasing in low-SDI region. Alcohol consumption, high body mass index (BMI), high FPG, and smoking are potential BC risk factors particularly in older ages that leading to adverse disease outcomes. Therefore, rapid aging and prevalence of these prospective risk factors may strengthen the increasing mortality and DALYs of BC in low-SDI region. Hence, preventive measure along with strict action against concerned BC risk factors should be taken to reduce the disease burden specifically among lower-SDI regions.

The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries.

The HIV/AIDS incidence rates have decreased in African countries although the rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine the long-term trend of the overall HIV/AIDS incidence rates in four countries of the central region of Africa, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The Age-Period-Cohort statistical model analysis was used to measure the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence rates in each of the four countries. HIV/AIDS incidence rates decreased slowly in Cameroon (CAM), Chad, and Central African Republic (CAR), but considerably in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 1990-2019. HIV/AIDS incidence rates in the four countries were at their peaks in the age group of 25-29 years. According to the age relative risks, individuals aged between 15 and 49 years old are at high risk of HIV/AIDS incidence in the four countries. The period and cohort relative risks have decreased in all four countries. Although CAM recorded an increase of 59.6% in the period relative risks (RRs) between 1990 and 1999, HIV/AIDS incidence has decreased dramatically in all four countries, especially after 2000. The decrease of the period RRs (relative risk) by nearly 20.6-folds and the decrease of the cohort RRs from 147.65 to almost 0.0034 in the DRC made it the country with the most significant decrease of the period and cohort RRs compared to the rest. HIV/AIDS incidence rates are decreasing in each of the four countries. Our study findings could provide solid ground for policymakers to promptly decrease HIV/AIDS incidence by strengthening the prevention policies to eliminate the public health threat of HIV/AIDS by 2030 as one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Trends in Disease Burden Attributable to Tobacco in China, 1990-2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

In 2018, there were more than 371 million cigarette smokers and 12. 6 million electronic cigarette users, with 340.2 million non-smokers exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) in China, which resulted in heavy tobacco-attributable disease burden. According to the definition by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), tobacco is a level 2 risk factor that consists of three sublevel risk factors, namely, smoking, SHS, and chewing tobacco. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the trends in deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to tobacco, smoking, SHS, and chewing tobacco by sex in China from 1990 to 2017 and to explore the leading causes of tobacco-attributable deaths and DALYs using data from the GBD 2017. From 1990 to 2017, the tobacco-attributable death rates per 100,000 people decreased from 75.65 [95% uncertainty interval (95% UI) = 56.23-97.74] to 70.90 (95% UI = 59.67-83.72) in females and increased from 198.83 (95% UI = 181.39-217.47) to 292.39 (95% UI = 271.28-313.76) in males. From 1990 to 2017, the tobacco-attributable DALY rates decreased from 2209.11 (95% UI = 1678.63-2791.91) to 1489.05 (95% UI = 1237.65-1752.57) in females and increased from 5650.42 (95% UI = 5070.06-6264.39) to 6994.02 (95% UI = 6489.84-7558.41) in males. In 2017, the tobacco-attributable deaths in China were concentrated on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, and stroke. The focus of tobacco control for females was SHS in 1990, whereas smoking and SHS were equally important for tobacco control in females in 2017. Increasing tobacco taxes and prices may be the most effective and feasible measure to reduce tobacco-attributable disease burdens.

Attributable Risk and Economic Cost of Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions Due to Ambient Particulate Matter in Wuhan, China.

Although the adverse effects of ambient particulate matter (PM) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been previously documented, information about their economic consequence was insufficient. This study aimed to evaluate the attributable risk and economic cost of cardiovascular hospitalizations due to ambient PM. Data of CVD hospitalizations and PM concentrations from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017 were collected in Wuhan, China. A generalized additive model was applied to quantify the PM-attributable CVD hospitalizations, and total attributable hospitalization costs were calculated via multiplying the total attributable cases by the case-average hospitalization costs. A total of 45,714 CVD hospitalizations were included in this study. The results showed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at lag7 day, respectively, contributed to a 1.01% (95% confidence interval: 0.67-1.34) and 0.48% (0.26-0.70) increase in CVD hospitalizations. During the study period, 1487 and 983 CVD hospitalizations were attributable to PM2.5 and PM10, equaling an economic cost of 29.27 and 19.34 million RMB (1 RMB = 0.1424 USD), respectively, and significant differences in PM-attributable hospitalizations and economic burden were found between gender and age groups. Our study added evidence in heavily polluted megacities regarding the increased health risk and economic cost of CVD hospitalizations associated with ambient particulate pollution.