Credit risk assessment of small and micro enterprise based on machine learning.

Small and micro enterprises are pivotal in national economic and social development. To foster their growth, managing their credit risks scientifically is crucial. This study starts by examining the credit information of these enterprises. We use imbalanced sample processing algorithms to ensure a balanced representation of minority-class samples. Then, a machine learning classifier is employed to identify key factors contributing to these enterprises' low credibility. Based on these factors, an XGBoost scoring card model is developed. The study reveals: firstly, the integration of the SMOTE algorithm with the XGBoost model exhibits certain performance advantages in handling imbalanced datasets; secondly, trustworthy financial information remains at the heart of crucial risk determinants; thirdly, the XGBoost scoring card model based on significant features effectively enhances the accuracy of credit risk assessment. These insights provide both theoretical references and practical tools for enhancing the robustness of small and micro enterprises, facilitating early warnings on credit risks, and refining financing efficiency.

Spatial heterogeneity of urban-rural integration and its influencing factors in Shandong province of China.

Based on nighttime light data and statistical data, this study calculated the level of urban-rural integration (URI) of Shandong province, researched spatial heterogeneity of URI levels by local spatial autocorrelation analysis, Geodetector, and geographically weighted regression, and analyzed its influencing factors and spatial heterogeneity. The results concluded that: (1) The spatial pattern of urban-rural integrated level is consistent with the level of regional economic development in Shandong province. The level of URI is higher along the Qingdao-Jinan railway and along the coast, whereas the level is lower in southwest Shandong and northwest Shandong. (2) The cities of Yantai and Weifang are High-High cluster areas of urban integration, and Jining is a Low-Low cluster area. The spatial agglomeration characteristics are not significant in other cities. (3) Among the main factors affecting URI, the explanatory power of the rural population with high school or technical secondary school education or above, the area of urban construction land, and the secondary and tertiary industry GDP to the spatial pattern of URI in Shandong province are 73.58%, 62.08%, and 58.66%, respectively. As the key factors, spatial heterogeneity, such as north-south differences, southwest-to-northeast differences, and east-west differences, is evident.

PAHs and PCBs residues and consumption risk assessment in farmed yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea) from the East China Sea, China.

Large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea) purchased from five different farming sites in Zhoushan Archipelago and Xiangshan Harbor in the East China Sea, China were analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Concentrations of PAHs and PCBs in the edible muscle of L. crocea ranged from 83.14 to 174.68 ng/g wet weight (or 266.89 to 695.24 ng/g dry weight) and 3.89 to 17.40 ng/g wet weight (or 15.50 to 54.25 ng/g dry weight), respectively. Incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) associated with the dietary intake of PAHs and PCBs in L. crocea was assessed. Results showed that levels of PAHs in L. crocea were high enough to cause potential carcinogenic risks for human consumption, while, levels of PCBs in fish samples were of low significant carcinogenic risk.

Soil contamination with antibiotics in a typical peri-urban area in eastern China: Seasonal variation, risk assessment, and microbial responses.

The prevalence and persistence of antibiotics in soils has become an emerging environmental issue and an increasing threat to soil security and global public health. The problem is more severe in areas undergoing rapid urbanization; however, the ecological risks of antibiotics, seasonal variability, and associated soil microbial responses in peri-urban soils have not been well-explored. The seasonal soil sampling campaigns were conducted in a typical peri-urban watershed in eastern China to investigate distribution of antibiotics. The results demonstrated higher mean concentrations of most antibiotic compounds in winter than in summer in peri-urban soils. The seasonal variations of norfloxacin, enrofloxacin, and ciprofloxacin were more significant than those of other antibiotics, due to their higher migration ability and bioavailability. An ecological risk assessment demonstrated that chlortetracycline, ciprofloxacin, doxycycline, and ofloxacin can pose high risks to soil microorganisms. Furthermore, the coexistence of multiple antibiotics obviously poses higher risks than individual compounds. A redundancy analysis demonstrated that tetracyclines mainly showed negative correlations with Firmicutes and Chloroflexi, and quinolones showed obviously negative correlations with Acidobacteria, Gemmatimonadetes, and Nitrospirae, suggesting potential inhibition from antibiotics on biological activities or biodegradation processes. However, the persistence of antibiotics in soil results in a significant decrease in bacterial diversity and a change in dominant species. Our results provide an overview of the seasonal variability of antibiotics and the associated effects on bacterial communities in peri-urban soils. The results can provide scientific guidance on decreasing soil contamination with antibiotics to enhance soil security in similar areas.

China suboptimal health cohort study: rationale, design and baseline characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal health status (SHS) is a physical state between health and disease, characterized by the perception of health complaints, general weakness, chronic fatigue and low energy levels. SHS is proposed by the ancient concept of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) from the perspective of preservative, predictive and personalized (precision) medicine. We previously created the suboptimal health status questionnaire 25 (SHSQ-25), a novel instrument to measure SHS, validated in various populations. SHSQ-25 thus affords a window of opportunity for early detection and intervention, contributing to the reduction of chronic disease burdens. METHODS/DESIGN: To investigate the causative effect of SHS in non-communicable chronic diseases (NCD), we initiated the China suboptimal health cohort study (COACS), a longitudinal study starting from 2013. Phase I of the study involved a cross-sectional survey aimed at identifying the risk/protective factors associated with SHS; and Phase II: a longitudinal yearly follow-up study investigating how SHS contributes to the incidence and pattern of NCD. RESULTS: (1) Cross-sectional survey: in total, 4313 participants (53.8 % women) aged from 18 to 65 years were included in the cohort. The prevalence of SHS was 9.0 % using SHS score of 35 as threshold. Women showed a significantly higher prevalence of SHS (10.6 % in the female vs. 7.2 % in the male, P < 0.001). Risk factors for chronic diseases such as socioeconomic status, marital status, highest education completed, physical activity, salt intake, blood pressure and triglycerides differed significantly between subjects of SHS (SHS score ≥35) and those of ideal health (SHS score <35). (2) Follow up: the primary and secondary outcomes will be monitored from 2015 to 2024. CONCLUSIONS: The sex-specific difference in prevalence of SHS might partly explain the gender difference of incidence of certain chronic diseases. The COACS will enable a thorough characterization of SHS and establish a cohort that will be used for longitudinal analyses of the interaction between the genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors that contribute to the onset and etiology of targeted chronic diseases. The study together with the designed prospective cohort provides a chance to characterize and evaluate the effect of SHS systemically, and it thus generates an unprecedented opportunity for the early detection and prevention of chronic disease.

Assessment on dioxin-like compounds intake from various marine fish from Zhoushan Fishery, China.

Sea fish consuming is an important intake source of dioxin-like compounds, especially for the coastal residents. To assess the intake levels of these contaminants from sea fish and to provide risk-based consumption advice, concentrations of 17 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCBs) were measured in 32 commonly consumed fish species from Zhoushan Fishery, China. Due to the different accumulation influenced by fat content, feed habits and living zone in the sea area, the levels of PCDDs, PCDFs and dl-PCBs in different fish species varied significantly ranging from 0.002 to 0.078pg WHO-TEQ/g fresh weight, from 0.002 to 0.553pg WHO-TEQ/g fresh weight and from 0.003 to 2.059pg WHO-TEQ/g fresh weight, respectively. Based on mean fish consuming rate in China, the estimated maximum possible dioxin-like compounds intake through different fish species ranged from 0.26 to 65.61pgTEQkg(-1)bwmonth(-1). Bullet mackerel has the highest monthly intake level which was much higher than other fish species and very close to the provisional tolerable monthly intake (70pgTEQkg(-)(1)bwmonth(-)(1)) proposed by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. Hence, comparing to other fish species, the consumption of Bullet mackerel from Zhoushan Fishery should be cautious to reduce the potential health risk.

Risk and benefit assessment of potential neurodevelopmental effect resulting from consumption of marine fish from a coastal archipelago in China.

The aim of this study was to assess net neurodevelopmental effect via maternal consumption of marine fish. A total of thirty-one species were collected from Zhoushan, China. The net IQ point gain was assessed by FAO/WHO deterministic approach and probabilistic computation (if necessary). Results of the deterministic assessment of two samples belonging to Scoliodon sorrakowah showed negative IQ point gain in both common and extreme consumption scenarios (175 and 450 g/week, respectively); the net IQ gain caused by both consumption scenarios of other species were positive. Both consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah showed beneficial neurodevelopmental effect according to probabilistic computation (95% CI for mean of net IQ gain: 0.0536-0.0554 and 0.1377-0.1425, respectively). Except for Scoliodon sorrakowah, this study indicates that both consumption scenarios of other studied species would be recommended according to the FAO/WHO approach. There would be no recommendation of consumption scenarios of Scoliodon sorrakowah for the reason for carefulness.