Health trends in Canada 1990-2019: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

OBJECTIVE: Monitoring trends in key population health indicators is important for informing health policies. The aim of this study was to examine population health trends in Canada over the past 30 years in relation to other countries. METHODS: We used data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, life expectancy (LE), and child mortality for Canada and other countries between 1990 and 2019 provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: Life expectancy, age-standardized YLL, and age-standardized DALYs all improved in Canada between 1990 and 2019, although the rate of improvement has leveled off since 2011. The top five causes of all-age DALYs in Canada in 2019 were neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental disorders. The greatest increases in all-age DALYs since 1990 were observed for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and sense organ disorders. Age-standardized DALYs declined for most conditions, except for substance use, diabetes and chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal disorders, which increased by 94.6%, 14.6%, and 7.3% respectively since 1990. Canada's world ranking for age-standardized DALYs declined from 9th place in 1990 to 24th in 2019. CONCLUSION: Canadians are healthier today than in 1990, but progress has slowed in Canada in recent years in comparison with other high-income countries. The growing burden of substance abuse, diabetes/chronic kidney disease, and musculoskeletal diseases will require continued action to improve population health.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: La surveillance des tendances des indicateurs clés de la santé de la population est importante pour éclairer les politiques de santé. Dans cette étude, nous avons examiné les tendances de la santé de la population au Canada au cours des 30 dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays. MéTHODES: Nous avons utilisé des données sur les années de vie ajustées en fonction de l'incapacité (DALY), les années de vie perdues (YLL), les années vécues avec un handicap, l'espérance de vie (LE) et la mortalité infantile pour le Canada et d'autres pays entre 1990 et 2019, fournies par l'Étude mondiale sur le fardeau de la maladie. RéSULTATS: L'espérance de vie, les YLL ajustées selon l'âge et les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont tous connu une amélioration au Canada entre 1990 et 2019, bien que le taux d'amélioration se soit stabilisé depuis 2011. Les cinq principales causes des DALY pour tous les âges au Canada en 2019 étaient les néoplasmes, les maladies cardiovasculaires, les affections musculosquelettiques, les affections neurologiques et les troubles mentaux. Les plus fortes augmentations des DALY pour tous les âges depuis 1990 ont été observées pour l'usage de substances, le diabète et les maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que les troubles des organes sensoriels. Les DALY ajustées selon l'âge ont diminué pour la plupart des conditions, à l'exception de l'usage de substances, du diabète et des maladies rénales chroniques, ainsi que des troubles musculosquelettiques, qui ont augmenté de 94,6 %, 14,6 % et 7,3 % respectivement depuis 1990. Le classement mondial du Canada pour les DALY ajustées selon l'âge est diminué de la 9ième place en 1990 à la 24ième place en 2019. CONCLUSION: Les Canadiens sont en meilleure santé aujourd'hui qu'en 1990, mais les progrès se sont ralentis ces dernières années par rapport à d'autres pays à revenu élevé. La croissance du fardeau lié à l'abus de substances, au diabète/maladies rénales chroniques et aux affections musculosquelettiques exigera des actions continues pour améliorer la santé de la population.

National burden of rheumatoid arthritis in Canada, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 - a GBD collaborator-led study.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and trends from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) data, (2) to describe age and sex differences in RA and (3) to compare Canada's RA burden to that of other countries. METHODS: Disease burden indicators included prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). GBD estimated fatal and non-fatal outcomes using published literature, survey data and health insurance claims. Data were analysed by Bayesian meta-regression, cause of death ensemble model and other statistical methods. DALYs for Canada were compared with DALYs of countries with similarly high Socio-Demographic Index values. RESULTS: In Canada, the RA prevalence rate increased by 27% between 1990 and 2019, mortality rate decreased by 27%, YLL rate decreased by 30%, YLD increased by 27% and DALY rate increased by 13%, all age standardised. The decline in RA mortality and YLL rates was especially pronounced after 2002. The disease burden was higher in females for all indicators, and DALY rates were higher among older age groups, peaking at age 75-79 years. Prevalence and DALYs were higher in Canada compared with global rates. CONCLUSION: Trends in RA burden indicators over time and differences by age and sex have important implications for Canadian policy-makers, researchers and care providers. Early identification and management of RA in women may help reduce the overall burden of RA in Canada.

Assessment of Proinflammatory Cytokines Among Patients with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This study was performed to assess the proinflammatory cytokines profile among MERS-CoV patients. A total of 46 MERS-CoV-infected patients (27 symptomatic and 19 asymptomatic) were assessed and compared with 52 normal healthy controls for plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-1ß, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, IL-17, IL-7, IL-6, interferon (IFN)-α, and IL-15 using a customized luminex kit. Whereas asymptomatic MERS-CoV patients and controls were no different; the mean plasma levels among MERS-CoV symptomatic patients were significantly higher than the normal controls: IL-1ß (16.89 ± 1.23 vs. 12.80 ± 0.59 pg/mL; p < 0.001), TNF-α (14.04 ± 0.93 vs. 10.35 ± 0.29 pg/mL; p < 0.0001), IL-17 (14.3 ± 0.89 vs. 11.47 ± 0.61 pg/mL; p < 0.001), IL-7 (21.56 ± 1.00 vs. 16.31 ± 0.30 pg/mL; p < 0.0001), IL-6 (156.5 ± 37.90 vs. 18.60 ± 1.59 pg/mL; p < 0.0001), and IFN-α (68.73 ± 13.06 vs. 23.57 ± 1.05 pg/mL; p < 0.0001). The mean plasma levels of IL-7 (24.81 ± 1.63 vs. 19.79 ± 0.94 pg/mL; p < 0.01), IL-6 (312.7 ± 94.67 vs. 101.2 ± 25.67 pg/mL; p < 0.01), and IFN-α (89.00 ± 18.97 vs. 51.05 ± 8.68 pg/mL; p < 0.05) were significantly elevated among MERS-CoV symptomatic patients with fatal outcome compared with MERS-CoV symptomatic patients who survived. Only IL-7 was found to have a higher risk ratio of mortality (4.76, 95% confidence interval: 1.5-14.94; p < 0.01). No differences were observed in IL-15 levels among the groups. Significantly elevated proinflammatory cytokines among symptomatic MERS-CoV-infected patients may contribute to manifestations of cytokine storm frequently observed among critically ill MERS-CoV patients and IL-7 may serve as a marker for disease activity.

Exploring the dynamic transitions of polysubstance use patterns among Canadian youth using Latent Markov Models on COMPASS data.

Background: Understanding what factors lead to youth polysubstance use (PSU) patterns and how the transitions between use patterns can inform the design and implementation of PSU prevention programs. We explore the dynamics of PSU patterns from a large cohort of Canadian secondary school students using machine learning techniques. Methods: We employed a multivariate latent Markov model (LMM) on COMPASS data, with a linked sample (N = 8824) of three-annual waves, Wave I (WI, 2016-17, as baseline), Wave II (WII, 2017-18), and Wave III (WIII, 2018-19). Substance use indicators, i.e., cigarette, e-cigarette, alcohol and marijuana, were self-reported and were categorized into never/occasional/current use. Outcomes: Four distinct use patterns were identified: no-use (S1), single-use of alcohol (S2), dual-use of e-cigarettes and alcohol (S3), and multi-use (S4). S1 had the highest prevalence (60.5%) at WI, however, S3 became the prominent use pattern (32.5%) by WIII. Most students remained in the same subgroup over time, particularly S4 had the highest transition probability (0.87) across the three-wave. With time, those who transitioned typically moved towards a higher use pattern, with the most and least likely transition occurring S2→S3 (0.45) and S3→S2 (<0.01), respectively. Among all covariates being examined, truancy, being measured by the # of classes skipped, significantly affected transition probabilities from any low→high (e.g., ORS2→S4 = 2.41, 95% CI [2.11, 2.72], p < 0.00001) and high→low (e.g., ORS3→S1 = 0.38, 95% CI [0.33, 0.44], p < 0.00001) use directions over time. Older students, blacks (vs. whites), and breakfast eaters were less likely to transition from low→high use direction. Students with more weekly allowance, with more friends that smoked, longer sedentary time, and attended attended school unsupportive to resist or quit drug/alcohol were more likely to transition from low→high use direction. Except for truancy, all other covariates had inconsistent effects on the transition probabilities from the high→low use direction. Interpretation: This is the first study to ascertain the dynamics of use patterns and factors in youth PSU utilizing LMM with population-based longitudinal health surveys, providing evidence in developing programs to prevent youth PSU. Funding: The Applied Health Sciences scholarship; the Microsoft AI for Good grant; the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Health Canada, the Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse, the SickKids Foundation, the Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux of the province of Québec.

A Computable Phenotype Model for Classification of Men Who Have Sex With Men Within a Large Linked Database of Laboratory, Surveillance, and Administrative Healthcare Records.

Background: Most public health datasets do not include sexual orientation measures, thereby limiting the availability of data to monitor health disparities, and evaluate tailored interventions. We therefore developed, validated, and applied a novel computable phenotype model to classify men who have sex with men (MSM) using multiple health datasets from British Columbia, Canada, 1990-2015. Methods: Three case surveillance databases, a public health laboratory database, and five administrative health databases were linked and deidentified (BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort), resulting in a retrospective cohort of 727,091 adult men. Known MSM status from the three disease case surveillance databases was used to develop a multivariable model for classifying MSM in the full cohort. Models were selected using "elastic-net" (GLMNet package) in R, and a final model optimized area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. We compared characteristics of known MSM, classified MSM, and classified heterosexual men. Findings: History of gonorrhea and syphilis diagnoses, HIV tests in the past year, history of visit to an identified gay and bisexual men's clinic, and residence in MSM-dense neighborhoods were all positively associated with being MSM. The selected model had sensitivity of 72%, specificity of 94%. Excluding those with known MSM status, a total of 85,521 men (12% of cohort) were classified as MSM. Interpretation: Computable phenotyping is a promising approach for classification of sexual minorities and investigation of health outcomes in the absence of routinely available self-report data.

Randomized controlled trial of colonic stent insertion in non-curable large bowel obstruction: a post hoc cost analysis.

AIM: In view of the increasing burden on the healthcare system, this study aims to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of the management of incurable large bowel obstruction comparing the cost of a stent vs surgery. METHOD: A prospective randomized controlled trial was conducted at two major teaching hospitals in Australia between September 2006 and November 2011. Fifty-six patients with malignant incurable large bowel obstruction were randomized to stent insertion or surgical decompression, of whom 52 were included in the final analysis. Data were collected at all points during the patient journey and quality of life data were obtained by patient surveys. All data points were analysed and a cost-effectiveness study was performed to compare the costs between the two treatment groups. RESULTS: Stenting as a procedure was significantly more expensive than surgery (A$4462.50 vs A$3251.50; P < 0.001). Post-procedure stay for stented patients was significantly lower (median 7 vs 11 days; P = 0.03). Combined costs of stent group ward stay, multidisciplinary team discussion and complication management were significantly lower (P = 0.013). Overall cost difference between the two treatment groups was A$3902.44 (P = 0.101). European Quality of Life - 5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) scores for the first 4 weeks gave mean area under the curve adjusted weeks of 2.411 vs 2.271 for the stent and surgery groups respectively (P = 0.603). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between the surgery and the stent group was $22 955.53 in favour of stenting. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with stenting is cheaper than open surgery and provides quicker discharge from hospital.

Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.

Impact of a community-based perinatal and newborn preventive care package on perinatal and neonatal mortality in a remote mountainous district in Northern Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence from community-based interventions to guide the development of effective maternal, perinatal and newborn care practices and services in developing countries. We evaluated the impact of a low-cost package of community-based interventions implemented through government sector lady health workers (LHWs) and community health workers (CHWs) of a NGO namely Aga Khan Health Services on perinatal and neonatal outcomes in a sub-population of the remote mountainous district of Gilgit, Northern Pakistan. METHODS: The package was evaluated using quasi experimental design included promotion of antenatal care, adequate nutrition, skilled delivery and healthy newborn care practices. Control areas continued to receive the routine standard health services. The intervention areas received intervention package in addition to the routine standard health services. Outcome measures included changes in maternal and newborn-care practices and perinatal and neonatal mortality rates between the intervention and control areas. RESULTS: The intervention was implemented in a population of 283324 over a 18 months period. 3200 pregnant women received the intervention. Significant improvements in antenatal care (92% vs 76%, p < .001), TT vaccination (67% vs 47%, p < .001), institutional delivery (85% vs 71%, p < .001), cord application (51% vs 71%, p < .001), delayed bathing (15% vs 43%, p < .001), colostrum administration (83% vs 64%, p < .001), and initiation of breastfeeding within 1 hour after birth (55% vs 40%, p < .001) were seen in intervention areas compared with control areas. Our results indicate significant reductions in mortality rates in intervention areas as compared to control areas from baseline in perinatal mortality rate (from 47.1 to 35.3 per 1000 births, OR 0.62; 95% CI: 0.56-0.69; P 0.02) and neonatal mortality rates (from 26.0 to 22.8 per 1000 live births, 0.58; 95% CI: 0.48-0.68; P 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a set of low cost community-based intervention package within the health system settings in a mountainous region of Pakistan was found to be both feasible and beneficial. The interventions had a significant impact in reduction of the burden of perinatal and neonatal mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered, ClinicalTrial.gov NCT02412293 .