Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. METHODS: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. FINDINGS: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p<0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05-0·87, p=0·032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·29, 0·14-0·59, p=0·0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2·2, 95% CI 1·2-3·9, p=0·0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death. INTERPRETATION: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Why Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance?

Recognizing the need for better primary data on the causes of global child mortality, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation made an unusually long funding commitment toward a surveillance system using pathology to identify opportunities to prevent child deaths and promote equity.

Should fast breathing pneumonia cases be treated with antibiotics? The scientific rationale for revisiting management in Low and Middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the largest single contributor to child mortality and the problem is more acute in low and middle income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends oral antibiotic treatment for all children with fast breathing pneumonia without danger signs. It is, however, widely acknowledged that most such infections are viral and self-limiting and that the evidence for the guidance is weak. RATIONALE: Overuse of antibiotics exposes children to adverse events, increases cost for families, burdens already stretched health care resources and may contribute to development of antibiotic resistance. CONCLUSION: There is equipoise regarding utility of antibiotic in case of fast breathing pneumonia and no high quality trial evidence exists. This paper provides further information behind the rationale for conducting non-inferiority trials to test the hypothesis that antibiotics may not be necessary for children with fast breathing as the sole symptomatology.

A Global Agenda for Typhoid Control-A Perspective from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Recognizing that enteric fever disproportionately affects the poorest and the most vulnerable communities that have limited access to improved sanitation, safe water sources, and optimal medical care, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has funded efforts to augment global understanding of the disease since the foundation's inception. At the turn of the century, early efforts focused on characterizing the burden of disease in Asia and evaluating use of the available Vi-polysaccharide vaccines through the Diseases of the Most Impoverished projects at the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). More recent efforts have centered on supporting development of typhoid conjugate vaccines and expanding disease surveillance efforts into Africa, as well as generating a greater understanding of the clinical severity and sequelae of enteric fever in Africa, Asia, and India. The Typhoid Vaccine Accelerator Consortium is playing a critical role in coordinating these and other global efforts for the control of typhoid fever. Here, we outline the scope of support and strategic view of the foundation and describe how, by working through strong partnerships, we can realize a radical reduction of the significance of enteric fever as a global public health problem in the next 10 to 15 years.

Development and validation of a simplified algorithm for neonatal gestational age assessment - protocol for the Alliance for Maternal Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) gestational age study is to develop and validate a programmatically feasible and simple approach to accurately assess gestational age of babies after they are born. The study will provide accurate, population-based rates of preterm birth in different settings and quantify the risks of neonatal mortality and morbidity by gestational age and birth weight in five South Asian and sub-Saharan African sites. METHODS: This study used on-going population-based cohort studies to recruit pregnant women early in pregnancy (<20 weeks) for a dating ultrasound scan. Implementation is harmonised across sites in Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Pakistan with uniform protocols and standard operating procedures. Women whose pregnancies are confirmed to be between 8 to 19 completed weeks of gestation are enrolled into the study. These women are followed up to collect socio-demographic and morbidity data during the pregnancy. When they deliver, trained research assistants visit women within 72 hours to assess the baby for gestational maturity. They assess for neuromuscular and physical characteristics selected from the Ballard and Dubowitz maturation assessment scales. They also measure newborn anthropometry and assess feeding maturity of the babies. Computer machine learning techniques will be used to identify the most parsimonious group of signs that correctly predict gestational age compared to the early ultrasound date (the gold standard). This gestational age will be used to categorize babies into term, late preterm and early preterm groups. Further, the ultrasound-based gestational age will be used to calculate population-based rates of preterm birth. IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY: The AMANHI gestational age study will make substantial contribution to improve identification of preterm babies by frontline health workers in low- and middle- income countries using simple evaluations. The study will provide accurate preterm birth estimates. This new information will be crucial to planning and delivery of interventions for improving preterm birth outcomes, particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Age and Sex Normalization of Intestinal Permeability Measures for the Improved Assessment of Enteropathy in Infancy and Early Childhood: Results From the MAL-ED Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to describe changes in intestinal permeability in early childhood in diverse epidemiologic settings. METHODS: In a birth cohort study, the lactulose:mannitol (L:M) test was administered to 1980 children at 4 time points in the first 24 months of life in 8 countries. Data from the Brazil site with an incidence of diarrhea similar to that seen in the United States and no growth faltering was used as an internal study reference to derive age- and sex-specific z scores for mannitol and lactulose recoveries and the L:M ratio. RESULTS: A total of 6602 tests demonstrated mannitol recovery, lactulose recovery, and the L:M ratio were associated with country, sex, and age. There was heterogeneity in the recovery of both probes between sites with mean mannitol recovery ranging for 1.34% to 5.88%, lactulose recovery of 0.19% to 0.58%, and L:M ratios 0.10 to 0.17 in boys of 3 months of age across different sites. We observed strong sex-specific differences in both mannitol and lactulose recovery, with boys having higher recovery of both probes. Alterations in intestinal barrier function increased in most sites from 3 to 9 months of age and plateaued or diminished from 9 to 15 months of age. CONCLUSIONS: Alterations in recovery of the probes differ markedly in different epidemiologic contexts in children living in the developing world. The rate of change in the L:M-z ratio was most rapid and consistently disparate from the reference standard in the period between 6 and 9 months of age, suggesting that this is a critical period of physiologic impact of enteropathy in these populations.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS: GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS: We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION: A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. METHODS: Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. FINDINGS: Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. CONCLUSIONS: The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.

Utility and feasibility of integrating pulse oximetry into the routine assessment of young infants at primary care clinics in Karachi, Pakistan: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Hypoxemia may occur in young infants with severe acute illnesses or congenital cardiac anomalies, but is not reliably detected on physical exam. Pulse oximetry (PO) can be used to detect hypoxemia, but its application in low-income countries has been limited, and its feasibility in the routine assessment of young infants (aged 0-59 days) has not been previously studied. The aim of this study was to characterize the operational feasibility and parent/guardian acceptability of incorporating PO into the routine clinical assessment of young infants in a primary care setting in a low-income country. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of 862 visits by 529 infants at two primary care clinics in Karachi, Pakistan (March to June, 2013). After clinical assessment, oxygen saturation (Sp02) was measured by a handheld PO device (Rad-5v, Masimo Corporation) according to a standardized protocol. Performance time (PT) was the time between sensor placement and attainment of an acceptable PO reading (i.e., stable SpO2 + 1% for at least 10 s, heart rate displayed, and adequate signal indicators). PT included the time for one repeat attempt at a different anatomical site if the first attempt did not yield an acceptable reading within 1 min. Parent/guardian acceptability of PO was based on a questionnaire and unprompted comments about the procedure. All infants underwent physician assessment. RESULTS: Acceptable PO readings were obtained in ≤ 1 and ≤ 5 min at 94.4% and 99.8% of visits, respectively (n = 862). Median PT was 42 s (interquartile range 37; 50). Parents/guardians overwhelmingly accepted PO (99.6% overall satisfaction, n = 528 first visits). Of 10 infants with at least one visit with Sp02 <92% on a first PO attempt, 3 did not have a significant acute illness on physician assessment. There were no PO-related adverse events. DISCUSSION: Using a commercially available handheld pulse oximeter, acceptable Sp02 measurements were obtained in nearly all infants in under 1 minute. The procedure was readily integrated into existing assessment pathways and parents/guardians had positive views of the technology. CONCLUSIONS: When incorporated into routine clinical assessment of young infants at primary care clinics in a low-income country, PO was feasible and acceptable to parents/guardians. Future research is needed to determine if the introduction of routine PO screening of young infants will improve outcomes in low-resource settings.

Routine EPI coverage: subdistrict inequalities and reasons for immunization failure in a rural setting in Pakistan.

High vaccine coverage at the district level may not translate with the same vigor to subdistrict levels; therefore, it is important to understand coverage inequalities. This study underscored vaccine coverage inequalities at subdistrict levels and explored reasons for immunization failure in a high-performing rural district of Pakistan. Parents of children aged 12 to 23 months were randomly selected and interviewed for child's vaccination history through a cross-sectional survey in 2008. Using secondary data (GIS maps and population census), coverage was plotted in respect to sociodemographic and presence of lady health workers. The proportion of children fully immunized was found notably low (75%) than officially reported (85%). Coverage inequalities were observed at subdistrict levels, ranging from 58% to 85% in rural to urban areas and from 60% to 80% in lower to higher income quintiles. Distance to immunization facility, parental unawareness, and wrong ideas about vaccination were statistically significant for immunization failure. Focus of immunization microplans at the subdistrict level are needed to achieve universal immunization goals.

Parental awareness and coverage of mass measles vaccination drive 2011: cross-sectional survey in the metropolitan city of Karachi, Pakistan.

High measles incidence and frequent epidemics are reported in Pakistan, given the low coverage for measles vaccine. This study evaluated coverage of mass measles campaign 2011 and estimated parental awareness and determinants for low/no coverage. Household survey was conducted 4 months after the measles campaign in Karachi, Pakistan. Parents of children younger than 5 years were administered structured questionnaire about their knowledge and participation in measles campaign. Of 1020 eligible households, only 282 (28%) parents knew about measles supplementary immunization activity, mainly from public announcements (49%). Of these, 174 (62%) children received measles vaccine, whereas, 108 (38%) parents refused measles vaccine. Overall, only 17% children received measles vaccine during this campaign. Low maternal education, not having received DPT/Pentavalent-3 vaccine, and routine vaccination from public Expanded Program on Immunization facility were significant determinants for low coverage. Measles vaccine coverage in Karachi remains low, and sporadic outbreaks of measles every 2 to 3 years are expected unless population coverage can be rapidly increased.

Sentinel hospital-based surveillance for assessment of burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the burden and molecular epidemiology of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children hospitalized with severe acute watery diarrhea in Pakistan prior to introduction of rotavirus vaccine. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out over a period of two years from 2006 - 2008 at five sentinel hospitals in the cities of Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Peshawar. Stool samples collected from children under five years of age hospitalized with severe acute watery diarrhea were tested for rotavirus antigen via enzyme immunoassay (EIA) (IDEA REF K6020 Oxoid Ltd (Ely), Cambridge, United Kingdom). A subset of EIA positive stool samples were further processed for genotyping. RESULTS: 6679 children were enrolled and stool specimens of 2039 (30.5%) were positive for rotavirus. Rotavirus positivity ranged from 16.3% to 39.4% in the 5 hospitals with highest positivity in Lahore. 1241 (61%) of all rotavirus cases were in infants under one year of age. Among the strains examined for G-serotypes, the occurrence of G1, G2, G9 and G4 strains was found to be 28%, 24%, 14% and 13%, respectively. Among P-types, the most commonly occurring strains were P6 (31.5%) followed by P8 (20%) and P4 (12%). Prevalent rotavirus genotype in hospitalized children of severe diarrhea were G1P[8] 11.6% (69/593), followed by G2P[4] 10.4% (62/593), and G4P[6] 10.1% (60/593). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one third of children hospitalized with severe gastroenteritis in urban centers in Pakistan have rotavirus. Introduction of rotavirus vaccine in Pakistan's national immunization program could prevent many severe episodes and diarrheal deaths.

Demographic, socioeconomic, and health characteristics of the MAL-ED network study site in rural Pakistan.

The Pakistan study site of the Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort study is located in Molhan union council of Naushahro Feroze district in the Sindh province. The study site is located in a rural district, where the majority of the population has an agrarian livelihood. Most families are nuclear families and the average household has 7 persons. More than half the women in the region have no formal education, and the median parity is 6. Only 48%-61% of the households across the district, province, and country have access to an improved toilet facility. Similar to the provincial and national estimates, the district has a low rate of exclusive breastfeeding at 6 months, and the prevalence of prelacteal feeding is high. There is also a high proportion of malnourished children. In addition, the acute respiratory infection and diarrheal illness burden and the mortality rates in children <5 years old in the district are high but comparable with the provincial and national estimates. Overall, the district is representative of rural populations at the regional and national level in terms of demographics, socioeconomic status, and general health and mortality indicators.

Development and assessment of molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens causing childhood diarrhoea: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood diarrhoea can be caused by many pathogens that are difficult to assay in the laboratory. Molecular diagnostic techniques provide a uniform method to detect and quantify candidate enteropathogens. We aimed to develop and assess molecular tests for identification of enteropathogens and their association with disease. METHODS: We developed and assessed molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens across three platforms-PCR-Luminex, multiplex real-time PCR, and TaqMan array card-at five laboratories worldwide. We judged the analytical and clinical performance of these molecular techniques against comparator methods (bacterial culture, ELISA, and PCR) using 867 diarrhoeal and 619 non-diarrhoeal stool specimens. We also measured molecular quantities of pathogens to predict the association with diarrhoea, by univariate logistic regression analysis. FINDINGS: The molecular tests showed very good analytical and clinical performance at all five laboratories. Comparator methods had limited sensitivity compared with the molecular techniques (20-85% depending on the target) but good specificity (median 97·3%, IQR 96·5-98·9; mean 95·2%, SD 9·1). Positive samples by comparator methods usually had higher molecular quantities of pathogens than did negative samples, across almost all platforms and for most pathogens (p<0·05). The odds ratio for diarrhoea at a given quantity (measured by quantification cycle, Cq) showed that for most pathogens associated with diarrhoea-including Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli, Cryptosporidium spp, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, heat-stable enterotoxigenic E coli, rotavirus, Shigella spp and enteroinvasive E coli, and Vibrio cholerae-the strength of association with diarrhoea increased at higher pathogen loads. For example, Shigella spp at a Cq range of 15-20 had an odds ratio of 8·0 (p<0·0001), but at a Cq range of 25-30 the odds ratio fell to 1·7 (p=0·043). INTERPRETATION: Molecular diagnostic tests can be implemented successfully and with fidelity across laboratories around the world. In the case of diarrhoea, these techniques can detect pathogens with high sensitivity and ascribe diarrhoeal associations based on quantification, including in mixed infections, providing rich and unprecedented measurements of infectious causes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Next Generation Molecular Diagnostics Project.

Antibiotic resistance-the need for global solutions.

The causes of antibiotic resistance are complex and include human behaviour at many levels of society; the consequences affect everybody in the world. Similarities with climate change are evident. Many efforts have been made to describe the many different facets of antibiotic resistance and the interventions needed to meet the challenge. However, coordinated action is largely absent, especially at the political level, both nationally and internationally. Antibiotics paved the way for unprecedented medical and societal developments, and are today indispensible in all health systems. Achievements in modern medicine, such as major surgery, organ transplantation, treatment of preterm babies, and cancer chemotherapy, which we today take for granted, would not be possible without access to effective treatment for bacterial infections. Within just a few years, we might be faced with dire setbacks, medically, socially, and economically, unless real and unprecedented global coordinated actions are immediately taken. Here, we describe the global situation of antibiotic resistance, its major causes and consequences, and identify key areas in which action is urgently needed.

Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases cause illness and death among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. We designed the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to identify the aetiology and population-based burden of paediatric diarrhoeal disease in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. METHODS: The GEMS is a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children aged 0-59 months residing in censused populations at four sites in Africa and three in Asia. We recruited children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea seeking care at health centres along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. From patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and controls, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data, anthropometric measurements, and a faecal sample to identify enteropathogens at enrolment; one follow-up home visit was made about 60 days later to ascertain vital status, clinical outcome, and interval growth. FINDINGS: We enrolled 9439 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and 13,129 control children without diarrhoea. By analysing adjusted population attributable fractions, most attributable cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea were due to four pathogens: rotavirus, Cryptosporidium, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli producing heat-stable toxin (ST-ETEC; with or without co-expression of heat-labile enterotoxin), and Shigella. Other pathogens were important in selected sites (eg, Aeromonas, Vibrio cholerae O1, Campylobacter jejuni). Odds of dying during follow-up were 8·5-fold higher in patients with moderate-to-severe diarrhoea than in controls (odd ratio 8·5, 95% CI 5·8-12·5, p<0·0001); most deaths (167 [87·9%]) occurred during the first 2 years of life. Pathogens associated with increased risk of case death were ST-ETEC (hazard ratio [HR] 1·9; 0·99-3·5) and typical enteropathogenic E coli (HR 2·6; 1·6-4·1) in infants aged 0-11 months, and Cryptosporidium (HR 2·3; 1·3-4·3) in toddlers aged 12-23 months. INTERPRETATION: Interventions targeting five pathogens (rotavirus, Shigella, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli) can substantially reduce the burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea. New methods and accelerated implementation of existing interventions (rotavirus vaccine and zinc) are needed to prevent disease and improve outcomes. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health care use patterns for diarrhea in children in low-income periurban communities of Karachi, Pakistan.

Diarrhea causes 16% of all child deaths in Pakistan. We assessed patterns of healthcare use among caretakers of a randomly selected sample of 959 children ages 0-59 months in low-income periurban settlements of Karachi through a cross-sectional survey. A diarrheal episode was reported to have occurred in the previous 2 weeks among 298 (31.1%) children. Overall, 280 (80.3%) children sought care. Oral rehydration solution and zinc were used by 40.8% and 2%, respectively; 11% were admitted or received intravenous rehydration, and 29% sought care at health centers identified as sentinel centers for recruiting cases of diarrhea for a planned multicenter diarrheal etiology case-control study. Odds ratios for independent predictors of care-seeking behavior were lethargy, 4.14 (95% confidence interval = 1.45-11.77); fever, 2.67 (1.27-5.59); and stool frequency more than six per day, 2.29 (1.03-5.09). Perception of high cost of care and use of home antibiotics were associated with reduced care seeking: odds ratio = 0.28 (0.1-0.78) and 0.29 (0.11-0.82), respectively. There is a need for standardized, affordable, and accessible treatment of diarrhea as well as community education regarding appropriate care in areas with high diarrheal burden.

Health care seeking for childhood diarrhea in developing countries: evidence from seven sites in Africa and Asia.

We performed serial Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Surveys (HUASs) among caretakers of children ages 0-59 months randomly selected from demographically defined populations participating in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in seven developing countries. The surveys aimed to estimate the proportion of children with MSD who would present to sentinel health centers (SHCs) where GEMS case recruitment would occur and provide a basis for adjusting disease incidence rates to include cases not seen at the SHCs. The proportion of children at each site reported to have had an incident episode of MSD during the 7 days preceding the survey ranged from 0.7% to 4.4% for infants (0-11 months of age), from 0.4% to 4.7% for toddlers (12-23 months of age), and from 0.3% to 2.4% for preschoolers (24-59 months of age). The proportion of MSD episodes at each site taken to an SHC within 7 days of diarrhea onset was 15-56%, 17-64%, and 7-33% in the three age strata, respectively. High cost of care and insufficient knowledge about danger signs were associated with lack of any care-seeking outside the home. Most children were not offered recommended fluids and continuing feeds at home. We have shown the utility of serial HUASs as a tool for optimizing operational and methodological issues related to the performance of a large case-control study and deriving population-based incidence rates of MSD. Moreover, the surveys suggest key targets for educational interventions that might improve the outcome of diarrheal diseases in low-resource settings.