Primary Care Physicians In Medicare Advantage Were Less Costly, Provided Similar Quality Versus Regional Average.

The use of many services is lower in Medicare Advantage (MA) compared with traditional Medicare, generating cost savings for insurers, whereas the quality of ambulatory services is higher. This study examined the role of selective contracting with providers in achieving these outcomes, focusing on primary care physicians. Assessing primary care physician costliness based on the gap between observed and predicted costs for their traditional Medicare patients, we found that the average primary care physician in MA networks was $433 less costly per patient (2.9 percent of baseline) compared with the regional mean, with less costly primary care physicians included in more networks than more costly ones. Favorable selection of patients by MA primary care physicians contributed partially to this result. The quality measures of MA primary care physicians were similar to the regional mean. In contrast, primary care physicians excluded from all MA networks were $1,617 (13.8 percent) costlier than the regional mean, with lower quality. Primary care physicians in narrow networks were $212 (1.4 percent) less costly than those in wide networks, but their quality was slightly lower. These findings highlight the potential role of selective contracting in reducing costs in the MA program.

Changes in the Use of Long-Term Medications Following Incident Dementia Diagnosis.

Importance: Dementia is a life-altering diagnosis that may affect medication safety and goals for chronic disease management. Objective: To examine changes in medication use following an incident dementia diagnosis among community-dwelling older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study of adults aged 67 years or older enrolled in traditional Medicare and Medicare Part D, patients with incident dementia diagnosed between January 2012 and December 2018 were matched to control patients based on demographics, geographic location, and baseline medication count. The index date was defined as the date of first dementia diagnosis or, for controls, the date of the closest office visit. Data were analyzed from August 2021 to June 2023. Exposure: Incident dementia diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were overall medication counts and use of cardiometabolic, central nervous system (CNS)-active, and anticholinergic medications. A comparative time-series analysis was conducted to examine quarterly changes in medication use in the year before through the year following the index date. Results: The study included 266 675 adults with incident dementia and 266 675 control adults; in both groups, 65.1% were aged 80 years or older (mean [SD] age, 82.2 [7.1] years) and 67.8% were female. At baseline, patients with incident dementia were more likely than controls to use CNS-active medications (54.32% vs 48.39%) and anticholinergic medications (17.79% vs 15.96%) and less likely to use most cardiometabolic medications (eg, diabetes medications, 31.19% vs 36.45%). Immediately following the index date, the cohort with dementia had a greater increase in mean number of medications used (0.41 vs -0.06; difference, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.27-0.66]) and in the proportion of patients using CNS-active medications (absolute change, 3.44% vs 0.79%; difference, 2.65% [95% CI, 0.85%-4.45%]) owing to an increased use of antipsychotics, antidepressants, and antiepileptics. The cohort with dementia also had a modestly greater decline in use of anticholinergic medications (quarterly change in use, -0.53% vs -0.21%; difference, -0.32% [95% CI, -0.55% to -0.08%]) and most cardiometabolic medications (eg, quarterly change in antihypertensive use: -0.84% vs -0.40%; difference, -0.44% [95% CI, -0.64% to -0.25%]). One year after diagnosis, 75.2% of the cohort with dementia were using 5 or more medications (2.8% increase). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of Medicare Part D beneficiaries, following an incident dementia diagnosis, patients were more likely to initiate CNS-active medications and modestly more likely to discontinue cardiometabolic and anticholinergic medications compared with the control group. These findings suggest missed opportunities to reduce burdensome polypharmacy by deprescribing long-term medications with high safety risks or limited likelihood of benefit or that may be associated with impaired cognition.

Differences In Use Of Services And Quality Of Care In Medicare Advantage And Traditional Medicare, 2010 And 2017.

Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment growth could make it difficult for MA plans to maintain their track record of limiting discretionary utilization while delivering higher-quality care than traditional Medicare. We compared quality and utilization measures in Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare in 2010 and 2017. Clinical quality performance was higher in MA health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and preferred provider organizations (PPOs) than in traditional Medicare for almost all measures in both years. MA HMOs outperformed traditional Medicare on all measures in 2017. MA HMOs' performance on nearly all seven patient-reported quality measures improved, and MA HMOs outperformed traditional Medicare on five of those measures in 2017. MA PPOs performed the same as or better than traditional Medicare on all but one patient-reported quality measure in 2010 and 2017. The number of emergency department visits was 30 percent lower, the number of elective hip and knee replacements was approximately 10 percent lower, and the number of back surgeries was almost 30 percent lower in MA HMOs than in traditional Medicare in 2017. Utilization trends were similar in MA PPOs, but differences from traditional Medicare were narrower. Despite increased enrollment, overall utilization remains lower in Medicare Advantage than in traditional Medicare, whereas quality performance is the same or higher.

Association of Medicare Advantage vs Traditional Medicare With 30-Day Mortality Among Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Importance: Medicare Advantage health plans covered 37% of beneficiaries in 2018, and coverage increased to 48% in 2022. Whether Medicare Advantage plans provide similar care for patients presenting with specific clinical conditions is unknown. Objective: To compare 30-day mortality and treatment for Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (MI) from 2009 to 2018. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study that included 557 309 participants with ST-segment elevation [acute] MI (STEMI) and 1 670 193 with non-ST-segment elevation [acute] MI (NSTEMI) presenting to US hospitals from 2009-2018 (date of final follow up, December 31, 2019). Exposures: Enrollment in Medicare Advantage vs traditional Medicare. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was adjusted 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included age- and sex-adjusted rates of procedure use (catheterization, revascularization), postdischarge medication prescriptions and adherence, and measures of health system performance (intensive care unit [ICU] admission and 30-day readmissions). Results: The study included a total of 2 227 502 participants, and the mean age in 2018 ranged from 76.9 years (Medicare Advantage STEMI) to 79.3 years (traditional Medicare NSTEMI), with similar proportions of female patients in Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare (41.4% vs 41.9% for STEMI in 2018). Enrollment in Medicare Advantage vs traditional Medicare was associated with significantly lower adjusted 30-day mortality rates in 2009 (19.1% vs 20.6% for STEMI; difference, -1.5 percentage points [95% CI, -2.2 to -0.7] and 12.0% vs 12.5% for NSTEMI; difference, -0.5 percentage points [95% CI, -0.9% to -0.1%]). By 2018, mortality had declined in all groups, and there were no longer statically significant differences between Medicare Advantage (17.7%) and traditional Medicare (17.8%) for STEMI (difference, 0.0 percentage points [95% CI, -0.7 to 0.6]) or between Medicare Advantage (10.9%) and traditional Medicare (11.1%) for NSTEMI (difference, -0.2 percentage points [95% CI, -0.4 to 0.1]). By 2018, there was no statistically significant difference in standardized 90-day revascularization rates between Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare. Rates of guideline-recommended medication prescriptions were significantly higher in Medicare Advantage (91.7%) vs traditional Medicare patients (89.0%) who received a statin prescription (difference, 2.7 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 4.2] for 2018 STEMI). Medicare Advantage patients were significantly less likely to be admitted to an ICU than traditional Medicare patients (for 2018 STEMI, 50.3% vs 51.2%; difference, -0.9 percentage points [95% CI, -1.8 to 0.0]) and significantly more likely to be discharged to home rather than to a postacute facility (for 2018 STEMI, 71.5% vs 70.2%; difference, 1.3 percentage points [95% CI, 0.5 to 2.1]). Adjusted 30-day readmission rates were consistently lower in Medicare Advantage than in traditional Medicare (for 2009 STEMI, 13.8% vs 15.2%; difference, -1.3 percentage points [95% CI, -2.0 to -0.6]; and for 2018 STEMI, 11.2% vs 11.9%; difference, 0.6 percentage points [95% CI, -1.5 to 0.0]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among Medicare beneficiaries with acute MI, enrollment in Medicare Advantage, compared with traditional Medicare, was significantly associated with modestly lower rates of 30-day mortality in 2009, and the difference was no longer statistically significant by 2018. These findings, considered with other outcomes, may provide insight into differences in treatment and outcomes by Medicare insurance type.

Turnover among new Medicare Advantage enrollees may be greater than perceived.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the proportion of Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees who switched insurers or disenrolled to traditional Medicare (TM) in the years immediately after first choosing to join an MA health plan. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis using 2012-2017 Medicare enrollment data. METHODS: We studied enrollees who joined MA between 2012 and 2016 and identified all enrollees who changed insurers (switched insurance or disenrolled to TM) at least once between the start of enrollment and the end of the study period. We categorized each change as switching insurers or disenrollment to TM, and by whether the previous insurer had exited the market. RESULTS: Among 6,520,169 new MA enrollees, 15.6% had changed insurance within 1 year after enrollment in MA and 49.2% had changed insurance by 5 years. More enrollees switched insurers rather than disenrolled, and most enrollees who changed insurers did not do so as a result of insurer exits. CONCLUSIONS: New MA enrollees change insurers at a substantial rate when followed across multiple years. These changes may disincentivize insurers from investing in preventive care and chronic disease management and, as shown in several non-MA populations, may lead to discontinuities in care, increased expenditures, and inferior health outcomes.

Measuring Racial Inequities In The Quality Of Care Across Oncology Practices In The US.

Racial inequities in clinical performance diminish overall health care system performance; however, quality assessments have rarely incorporated reliable measures of racial inequities. We studied care for more than one million Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with cancer to assess the feasibility of calculating reliable practice-level measures of racial inequities in chemotherapy-associated emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to estimate adjusted practice-level Black-White differences in these events and described differences across practices. We calculated reliable inequity measures for 426 and 322 practices, depending on the measure. These practices reflected fewer than 10 percent of practices treating Medicare beneficiaries with chemotherapy, but they treated approximately half of all White and Black Medicare beneficiaries receiving chemotherapy and two-thirds of Black Medicare beneficiaries receiving chemotherapy. Black patients experienced chemotherapy-associated ED visits and hospitalizations at higher rates (54.2 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively) than White patients (45.7 percent and 31.9 percent, respectively). The median within-practice Black-White difference was 8.1 percentage points for chemotherapy-associated ED visits and 2.7 percentage points for chemotherapy-associated hospitalizations. Additional research is needed to identify other reliable measures of racial inequities in health care quality, measure care inequities in smaller practices, and assess whether providing practice-level feedback could improve equity.

National Trends in Antihypertensive Treatment Among Older Adults by Race and Presence of Comorbidity, 2008 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, hypertension guidelines for older adults endorsed increased use of fixed-dose combinations, prioritized thiazide diuretics and calcium channel blockers (CCBs) for Black patients, and no longer recommend beta-blockers as first-line therapy. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate older adults' antihypertensive use following guideline changes. DESIGN: Time series analysis. PATIENTS: Twenty percent national sample of Medicare Part D beneficiaries aged 66 years and older with hypertension. INTERVENTION: Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC8) guidelines MAIN MEASURES: Quarterly trends in prevalent and initial antihypertensive use were examined before (2008 to 2013) and after (2014 to 2017) JNC8. Analyses were conducted among all beneficiaries with hypertension, beneficiaries without chronic conditions that might influence antihypertensive selection (hypertension-only cohort), and among Black patients, given race-based guideline recommendations. KEY RESULTS: The number of beneficiaries with hypertension increased from 1,978,494 in 2008 to 2,809,680 in 2017, the proportions using antihypertensives increased from 80.3 to 81.2%, and the proportion using multiple classes and fixed-dose combinations declined (60.8 to 58.1% and 20.7 to 15.1%, respectively, all P<.01). Prior to JNC8, the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, and CCBs was increasing. Use of CCBs as initial therapy increased more rapidly following JNC8 (relative change in quarterly trend 0.15% [95% CI, 0.13-0.18%), especially among Black beneficiaries (relative change 0.44% [95% CI, 0.21-0.68%]). Contrary to guidelines, the use of thiazides and combinations as initial therapy consistently decreased in the hypertension-only cohort (13.8 to 8.3% and 25.1 to 15.7% respectively). By 2017, 65.9% of Black patients in the hypertension-only cohort were initiated on recommended first-line or combination therapy compared to 80.3% of non-Black patients. CONCLUSIONS: Many older adults, particularly Black patients, continue to be initiated on antihypertensive classes not recommended as first-line, indicating opportunities to improve the effectiveness and equity of hypertension care and potentially reduce antihypertensive regimen complexity.

Association of Low-Value Care Exposure With Health Care Experience Ratings Among Patient Panels.

Importance: Patient reviews of health care experiences are increasingly used for public reporting and alternative payment models. Critics have argued that this incentivizes physicians to provide more care, including low-value care, undermining efforts to reduce wasteful practices. Objective: To assess associations between rates of low-value service provision to a primary care professional (PCP) patient panel and patients' ratings of their health care experiences. Design, Setting, and Participants: This quality improvement study used Medicare fee-for-service claims from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2014, for a random 20% sample of beneficiaries to identify beneficiaries for whom each of 8 low-value services could be ordered but would be considered unnecessary. The study also used health care experience reports from independently sampled beneficiaries who responded to the 2010-2015 Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) Medicare fee-for-service survey. Statistical analysis was performed from January 1, 2019, to December 9, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were health care experience ratings from Medicare beneficiaries who responded to the CAHPS survey from 2 domains, namely "Your Health Care in the Last 6 Months" (overall health care, office wait time, timely access to nonurgent care, and timely access to urgent care) and "Your Personal Doctor" (overall personal physician and a composite score for interactions with personal physician). Beneficiaries in both samples were attributed to the PCP with whom they had the most spending. For each PCP, a composite score of low-value service exposure was constructed using the 20% sample; this score represented the adjusted relative propensity of the PCP patient panel to receive low-value care. The association between low-value service exposure and health care experience ratings reported by the CAHPS respondents in the PCP patient panel was estimated using regression analysis. Results: The final sample had 100 743 PCPs, with a mean of approximately 258 patients per PCP. Only 1 notable association was found; more low-value care exposure was associated with more frequent reports of having to wait more than 15 minutes after the scheduled time of an appointment (a mean of 0.448 points lower CAHPS score on a 10-point scale for PCP patient panels who received the most low-value care vs the least low-value care). Although some other associations were statistically significant, their magnitudes were substantially smaller than those typically considered meaningful in other CAHPS literature and were inconsistent in direction across levels of low-value service exposure. Conclusions and Relevance: This quality improvement study found that more low-value care exposure for a PCP patient panel was not associated with more favorable patient ratings of their health care experiences.

Use of diabetes medications in traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage.

OBJECTIVES: To compare use of diabetes medications between beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) and traditional Medicare (TM). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of Medicare enrollment and Part D event claims during 2015-2016. METHODS: Data came from 1,027,884 TM and 838,420 MA beneficiaries who received at least 1 prescription for an oral or injectable diabetes medication. After matching MA and TM enrollees by demographic characteristics and geography, we analyzed use of medication overall, choices of first diabetes medication for those new to medication, and patterns of adding medications. RESULTS: Overall and for patients on 1, 2, or 3 diabetes medications, use of metformin was higher in MA by about 3 percentage points, but use of newer medication classes was 5.1 percentage points higher in TM overall (21.3% vs 16.2%). Use of guideline-recommended first-line agents was higher in MA. For those who started metformin first, use of a sulfonylurea as a second medication was 7.8 percentage points higher in MA than TM (61.5% vs 53.7%), whereas use of medications from newer classes was 7.7 percentage points lower (22.0% vs 29.7%). Mean total spending was $149 higher in TM for those taking 1 medication and $298 higher for those taking 2 medications. Differences in spending among MA plans were of similar magnitude to the MA-TM differences. CONCLUSIONS: MA enrollees are more likely to be treated with metformin and sulfonylureas and less likely to receive costly newer medications than those in TM, but there also is substantial variation within MA. A limitation of the study is that we could not assess glucose control using glycated hemoglobin levels.

Identifying outlier patterns of inconsistent ambulance billing in Medicare.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate a method that accounts for sampling variation in identifying suppliers and counties with outlying rates of a particular pattern of inconsistent billing for ambulance services to Medicare. DATA SOURCES: US Medicare claims for a 20% simple random sample of 2010-2014 fee-for-service beneficiaries. STUDY DESIGN: We identified instances in which ambulance suppliers billed Medicare for transporting a patient to a hospital, but no corresponding hospital visit appeared in billing claims. We estimated the distributions of outlier supplier and county rates of such "ghost rides" by fitting a nonparametric empirical Bayes model with flexible distributional assumptions to account for sampling variation. DATA COLLECTION: We included Basic and advanced life support ground emergency ambulance claims with a hospital destination. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: "Ghost ride" rates varied considerably across both ambulance suppliers and counties. We estimated 6.1% of suppliers and 5.0% of counties had rates that exceeded 3.6%, which was twice the national average of "ghost rides" (1.8% of all ambulance transports). CONCLUSIONS: Health care fraud and abuse are frequently asserted but can be difficult to detect. Our data-driven approach may be a useful starting point for further investigation.

Do dual eligible beneficiaries experience better health care in special needs plans?

OBJECTIVE: Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans (D-SNPs) were intended to provide better care for beneficiaries eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid through better coordination of these two programs. DATA SOURCES: 671 913 dual eligible (DE) respondents to the 2009-2019 Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey. STUDY DESIGN: We compared the 2015-2019 experiences of DE beneficiaries in D-SNPs relative to fee-for-service Medicare (FFS) and non-SNP Medicare Advantage (MA) using propensity-score weighted linear regression. Comparisons were made to 2009-2014. 12 patient experience measures were considered. DATA COLLECTION METHODS: Annual mail survey with telephone follow-up of non-respondents. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: More than 65% of DE beneficiaries enrolled in FFS. Of 12 measures, D-SNP performance was higher than non-SNP MA on two (P < .05), lower than non-SNP MA on two (P < .05), and higher than FFS on four (P < .01). DE beneficiaries did not report better coordination of care in D-SNPs. D-SNP performance was often worse than other coverage types in prior periods. CONCLUSIONS: Relative to FFS Medicare, DE beneficiaries report higher immunization rates in D-SNPs, but slight or no better performance on other dimensions of patient experience. New requirements in 2021 may help D-SNPs attain their goal of better care coordination.

Examining Christian views toward the Affordable Care Act: The importance of race and denomination.

While the majority of U.S. Christians opposed the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010, opinion was deeply divided by race/ethnicity and denominational group. Using national data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we analyzed variation in ACA support across Christian denominational groups and offered explanations for these differences. We found overwhelming support among African Americans, less unified but majority support from Hispanics, and majority opposition from non-Hispanic White Christians. Among White Catholics and Protestants, ACA support varied considerably, and views toward abortion policy statistically explained much of the difference in likelihood to support the ACA across denominational categories (comparing White mainline versus Evangelical Protestants, and white moderate versus devout Catholics). Differences in anti-Black racial resentment were substantial between White Evangelical and mainline Protestants, and helped explain some of the gaps in ACA support between these groups. We conclude that differences in ACA views by denomination can be explained by firmly held group beliefs that may be difficult to sway, even if the program is a technical success.

Validating Reports of Chronic Conditions in the Medicare CAHPS Survey.

BACKGROUND: The Medicare Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey includes items about chronic conditions, health history, and self-rated health. Questions remain about the concordance between patient reports and administrative sources on questions related to health history. OBJECTIVE: To validate CAHPS measures of chronic conditions against claims-based measures from the Medicare Chronic Conditions Warehouse (CCW). METHODS: We linked CAHPS responses from 301,050 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2010-2012 with summaries of their claims in the CCW and identified nearest equivalent measures of conditions across sources. We calculated sensitivities and specificities for conditions and estimated regression models to assess the effects of patient characteristics on the sensitivity. RESULTS: The sensitivity of CAHPS measures differed across conditions, ranging from 0.513 for history of stroke to 0.773 for history of cancer. Sensitivity was generally lower for older beneficiaries, those reporting good self-rated health, and those with fair or poor mental health. Specificity was 0.904 or greater for all conditions, up to 0.961 for stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Despite difference in timeframes and definitions of conditions, the measured sensitivities demonstrated reasonable validity. Variation in sensitivity is consistent with covariates that either directly measure health severity within a diagnosis or can be construed as a proxy for severity of illness.

Psychometric evaluation of the Medicare Advantage and prescription drug plan disenrollment reasons survey.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and assess the reliability and validity of composite measures of reasons for disenrollment from Medicare Advantage (MA) and prescription drug plans (PDPs). DATA SOURCE: Medicare beneficiaries who responded to the Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Plan Disenrollment Reasons Survey. STUDY DESIGN: Separate multilevel factor analyses of MA and PDP data suggested groupings of survey items to form composite measures, for which internal consistency and interunit reliability were estimated. The association of each composite with an overall plan rating was examined to evaluate criterion validity. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Five composites were identified: financial reasons for disenrollment; problems with prescription drug benefits and coverage; problems getting information and help from the plan; problems getting needed care, coverage, and cost information; and problems with coverage of doctors and hospitals. Beneficiary-level internal consistency reliability exceeded 0.70 for all but one composite (financial reasons); plan-level internal consistency reliability exceeded 0.80 for all composites; average interunit reliability for plans with ≥ 30 survey completes exceeded 0.75 for 3 of 5 composites. As expected, greater endorsement of reasons for disenrollment was associated with lower overall plan ratings. CONCLUSIONS: The Disenrollment Reasons Survey provides a reliable and valid assessment of beneficiaries' reasons for leaving their plans. Multiple reasons for disenrollment may indicate especially poor experiences.

Assessment of a Risk Index for Suicide Attempts Among US Army Soldiers With Suicide Ideation: Analysis of Data From the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

Importance: The Department of Veterans Affairs recently began requiring annual suicide ideation (SI) screening of all patients and additional structured questions for patients reporting SI. Related changes are under consideration at the Department of Defense. These changes will presumably lead to higher SI detection, which will require hiring additional clinical staff and/or developing a clinical decision support system to focus in-depth suicide risk assessments on patients considered high risk. Objective: To carry out a proof-of-concept study for whether a brief structured question battery from a survey of US Army soldiers can help target in-depth suicide risk assessments by identifying soldiers with self-reported lifetime SI who are at highest risk of subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal suicide attempts (SAs). Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study with prospective observational design. Data were collected from May 2011 to February 2013. Participants were followed up through December 2014. Analyses were conducted from March to November 2018. A logistic regression model was used to assess risk for subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal SAs. A total of 3649 Regular Army soldiers in 3 Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) surveys who reported lifetime SI were followed up for 18 to 45 months from baseline to assess administratively reported nonfatal SAs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcome was administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. Predictors were survey variables. Results: The 3649 survey respondents were 80.5% male and had a median (interquartile range) age of 29 (25-36) years (range, 18-55 years); 69.4% were white non-Hispanic, 14.6% were black, 9.0% were Hispanic, 7.0% were another racial/ethnic group. Sixty-five respondents had administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. One additional respondent died by suicide without making a nonfatal SA but was excluded from analysis based on previous evidence that predictors are different for suicide death and nonfatal SAs. Significant risk factors were SI recency (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% CI, 2.9-18.0) and persistence (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.0-6.8), positive screens for mental disorders (OR, 26.2; 95% CI, 6.1-112.0), and Army career characteristics (OR for junior enlisted rank, 30.0; 95% CI, 3.3-272.5 and OR for senior enlisted rank, 6.7; 95% CI, 0.8-54.9). Cross-validated area under the curve was 0.78. The 10% of respondents with highest estimated risk accounted for 39.2% of subsequent SAs. Conclusions and Relevance: Results suggest the feasibility of developing a clinically useful risk index for SA among soldiers with SI using a small number of self-report questions. If implemented, a continuous quality improvement approach should be taken to refine the structured question series.

Adjusting for social risk factors impacts performance and penalties in the hospital readmissions reduction program.

OBJECTIVE: Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) does not account for social risk factors in risk adjustment, and this may lead the program to unfairly penalize safety-net hospitals. Our objective was to determine the impact of adjusting for social risk factors on HRRP penalties. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Claims data for 2 952 605 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF) or pneumonia from December 2012 to November 2015. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Poverty, disability, housing instability, residence in a disadvantaged neighborhood, and hospital population from a disadvantaged neighborhood were associated with higher readmission rates. Under current program specifications, safety-net hospitals had higher readmission ratios (AMI, 1.020 vs 0.986 for the most affluent hospitals; pneumonia, 1.031 vs 0.984; and CHF, 1.037 vs 0.977). Adding social factors to risk adjustment cut these differences in half. Over half the safety-net hospitals saw their penalty decline; 4-7.5 percent went from having a penalty to having no penalty. These changes translated into a $17 million reduction in penalties to safety-net hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Accounting for social risk can have a major financial impact on safety-net hospitals. Adjustment for these factors could reduce negative unintended consequences of the HRRP.

Association of Federal Mental Health Parity Legislation With Health Care Use and Spending Among High Utilizers of Services.

BACKGROUND: Decades-long efforts to require parity between behavioral and physical health insurance coverage culminated in the comprehensive federal Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between federal parity and changes in mental health care utilization and spending, particularly among high utilizers. RESEARCH DESIGN: Difference-in-differences analyses compared changes before and after exposure to federal parity versus a comparison group. SUBJECTS: Commercially insured enrollees aged 18-64 with a mental health disorder drawn from 24 states where self-insured employers were newly subject to federal parity in 2010 (exposure group), but small employers were exempt before-and-after parity (comparison group). A total of 11,226 exposure group members were propensity score matched (1:1) to comparison group members, all of whom were continuously enrolled from 1 year prepolicy to 1-2 years postpolicy. MEASURES: Mental health outpatient visits, out-of-pocket spending for these visits, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations. RESULTS: Relative to comparison group members, mean out-of-pocket spending per outpatient mental health visit declined among exposure enrollees by $0.74 (1.40, 0.07) and $2.03 (3.17, 0.89) in years 1 and 2 after the policy, respectively. Corresponding annual mental health visits increased by 0.31 (0.12, 0.51) and 0.59 (0.37, 0.81) per enrollee. Difference-in-difference changes were larger for the highest baseline quartile mental health care utilizers [year 2: 0.76 visits per enrollee (0.14, 1.38); relative increase 10.07%] and spenders [year 2: $-2.28 (-3.76, -0.79); relative reduction 5.91%]. There were no significant difference-in-differences changes in emergency department visits or hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: In 24 states, commercially insured high utilizers of mental health services experienced modest increases in outpatient mental health visits 2 years postparity.

Lifetime and 12-month treatment for mental disorders and suicidal thoughts and behaviors among first year college students.

OBJECTIVES: Mental disorders and suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) are common and burdensome among college students. Although available evidence suggests that only a small proportion of the students with these conditions receive treatment, broad-based data on patterns of treatment are lacking. The aim of this study is to examine the receipt of mental health treatment among college students cross-nationally. METHODS: Web-based self-report surveys were obtained from 13,984 first year students from 19 colleges in eight countries across the world as part of the World Health Organization's World Mental Health-International College Student Initiative. The survey assessed lifetime and 12-month common mental disorders/STB and treatment of these conditions. RESULTS: Lifetime and 12-month treatment rates were very low, with estimates of 25.3-36.3% for mental disorders and 29.5-36.1% for STB. Treatment was positively associated with STB severity. However, even among severe cases, lifetime and 12-month treatment rates were never higher than 60.0% and 45.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: High unmet need for treatment of mental disorders and STB exists among college students. In order to resolve the problem of high unmet need, a reallocation of resources may focus on innovative, low-threshold, inexpensive, and scalable interventions.

Methodological Approaches to Understanding Causes of Health Disparities.

Understanding health disparity causes is an important first step toward developing policies or interventions to eliminate disparities, but their nature makes identifying and addressing their causes challenging. Potential causal factors are often correlated, making it difficult to distinguish their effects. These factors may exist at different organizational levels (e.g., individual, family, neighborhood), each of which needs to be appropriately conceptualized and measured. The processes that generate health disparities may include complex relationships with feedback loops and dynamic properties that traditional statistical models represent poorly. Because of this complexity, identifying disparities' causes and remedies requires integrating findings from multiple methodologies. We highlight analytic methods and designs, multilevel approaches, complex systems modeling techniques, and qualitative methods that should be more broadly employed and adapted to advance health disparities research and identify approaches to mitigate them.

Bayesian hierarchical modeling of substate area estimates from the Medicare CAHPS survey.

Each year, surveys are conducted to assess the quality of care for Medicare beneficiaries, using instruments from the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS®) program. Currently, survey measures presented for Fee-for-Service beneficiaries are either pooled at the state level or unpooled for smaller substate areas nested within the state; the choice in each state is based on statistical tests of measure heterogeneity across areas within state. We fit spatial-temporal Bayesian random-effects models using a flexible parameterization to estimate mean scores for each of the domains formed by 94 areas in 32 states measured over 5 years. A Bayesian hat matrix provides a heuristic interpretation of the way the model combines information for estimates in these domains. The model can be used to choose between reporting of state- or substate-level direct estimates in each state, or as a source of alternative small-area estimates superior to either direct estimate. We compare several candidate models using log pseudomarginal likelihood and posterior predictive checks. Results from the best-performing model for 8 measures surveyed from 2012 to 2016 show substantial reductions in mean squared error (MSE) over direct estimates.