The association of a disability-targeted cash transfer programme with disability status and health-care access: a quasi-experimental study using a nationwide cohort of 4·3 million Chinese adults living with severe disabilities.

BACKGROUND: Cash transfer is a crucial policy tool to address inequality. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between China's disability-targeted cash transfer programme and disability status, as well as equitable access to rehabilitation and medical services. METHODS: For this quasi-experimental study, we drew data from the nationwide administrative cohort of individuals with disabilities between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2019. Individuals were enrolled in the cohort if they were aged 18 years or older, had severe disabilities as defined by the Chinese Government, and had available cash transfer information for at least 4 consecutive years, without having started receiving cash transfer benefits at the time of enrolment. We used a quasi-experimental design with propensity score matching to estimate the effects of cash transfers on disability status, access to rehabilitation services, and access to medical treatment. The primary outcomes were development of new disability and reduction of existing disabilities. Secondary outcomes were use of rehabilitation services, financial barriers as a major obstacle to accessing rehabilitation services, use of medical services by individuals who had an illness in the previous 2 weeks, and financial barriers as a major obstacle to accessing medical services. FINDINGS: From an initial pool of 51 356 125 individuals with disabilities registered in the administrative system, 2 686 024 individuals were eligible for analysis, of whom 2 165 335 (80·6%) were cash transfer beneficiaries and 520 689 (19·4%) non-beneficiaries. After propensity score matching, the cohort included 4 330 122 adults with severe disabilities. Cash transfer beneficiaries had significantly lower odds of developing new disabilities over time than non-beneficiaries (odds ratio [OR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·86-0·94; p<0·0001) and higher odds of having a reduced number of disabilities over time (1·17, 1·10-1·25; p<0·0001). Compared with non-beneficiaries, cash transfer beneficiaries were more likely to use rehabilitation services (2·12, 2·11-2·13; p<0·0001) and medical services (1·74, 1·69-1·78; p<0·0001), and less likely to report financial hardship to access rehabilitation services (0·53, 0·52-0·54; p<0·0001) and medical services (0·88, 0·84-0·93; p<0·0001) at the study endpoint. INTERPRETATION: The receipt of cash transfers was associated with improved disability status and increased access to disability-related services. The findings suggest that cash transfers could be a potential method for promoting universal health coverage among individuals living with disabilities. FUNDING: China National Natural Science Foundation.