Long-term trends in incidence, mortality and burden of liver cancer due to specific etiologies in Hubei Province.

Liver cancer, a chronic non-communicable disease, represents a serious public health problem. Long-term trends in the burden of liver cancer disease are heterogeneous across regions. Incidence and mortality of liver cancer, based on the Global Burden of Disease, were collected from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-period-cohort model was utilized to reveal the secular trends and estimate the age, period and cohort effects on primary liver cancer due to specific etiologies. Both the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate of liver cancer in Hubei province were on the rise, although there were discrepancies between gender groups. From age-period-cohort analysis, both incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to Hepatitis B virus were the highest in all age groups. The incidence of all liver cancer groups increased with time period in males, while this upward trend was observed in females only in liver cancer due to alcohol use group. Cohort effects indicated the disease burden of liver cancer decreased with birth cohorts. Local drifts showed that the incidence of liver cancer due to specific etiologies was increasing in the age group of males between 40 and 75 years old. The impact of an aging population will continue in Hubei Province. the disease burden of liver cancer will continue to increase, and personalized prevention policies must be adopted to address these changes.

Synergic effects of PM1 and thermal inversion on the incidence of small for gestational age infants: a weekly-based assessment.

BACKGROUND: The synergic effects of thermal inversion (TI) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤1 µm (PM1) exposure and incidence of small for gestational age (SGA) was not clear. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore the independent effects of prenatal TI and PM1 exposure on incidence of SGA and their potential interactive effects. METHODS: A total of 27,990 pregnant women who delivered in Wuhan Children's Hospital from 2017 to 2020 were included. The daily mean concentration of PM1 was obtained from ChinaHighAirPollutants (CHAP) and matched with the residential address of each woman. Data on TI was derived from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The independent effects of PM1 and TI exposures on SGA in each gestational week were estimated by the distributed lag model (DLM) nested in Cox regression model, and the potential interactive effects of PM1 and TI on SGA were investigated by adapting the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) index. RESULTS: Per 10 µg/m3 increase in PM1 was associated with an increase in the risk of SGA at 1-3 and 17-23 gestational weeks, with the strongest effect at the first gestational week (HR = 1.043, 95%CI: 1.008, 1.078). Significant links between one day increase of TI and SGA were found at the 1-4 and 13-23 gestational weeks and the largest effects were observed at the 17th gestational week (HR = 1.018, 95%CI: 1.009, 1.027). Synergistic effects of PM1 and TI on SGA were detected in the 20th gestational week, with RERI of 0.208 (95%CI: 0.033,0.383). IMPACT STATEMENT: Both prebirth PM1 and TI exposure were significantly associated with SGA. Simultaneous exposure to PM1 and TI might have synergistic effect on SGA. The second trimester seems to be a sensitive window of environmental and air pollution exposure.

Global Burden of osteoarthritis associated with high body mass index in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the burden of osteoarthritis (OA) associated with high body mass index (BMI) across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: This study extracted global, regional, and national data on years lived with disability (YLD) of OA associated with high BMI from GBD 2019. The YLD burden of OA associated with high BMI was systematically analyzed by age, SDI, sex, and EAPC. RESULTS: At the global level, ~2.67 million (95% UI: 1.04, 5.75) YLD were attributable to OA associated with high BMI, with an age-standardized rate of 31.9 (95% UI: 12.4, 68.75) YLD per 100,000 population in 2019. There was a 0.5 increase (95% UI: 0.35, 0.79) over the 30 years with an EAPC of 1.45. In 2019, Australasia {57.49 (95% UI: 23.62, 125.38)}, high-income North America {56.2 (95% UI: 23.32, 121.97)}, and Andean Latin America {49.77 (95% UI: 19.73, 111.73)} had the highest age-standardized YLD rates. The population aged at 60-74 group had a higher YLD rate for both males and females. Females tended to be more sensitive to the OA associated with high BMI than male in any region. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, the YLD rate of OA associated with high BMI presented a continuous upward trend in most countries. Women and older people are more sensitive to OA due to physiological and psychological factors. Controlling modifiable risk factors such as maintaining an appropriate BMI is needed for disease prevention.

Urban land use carbon emission intensity in China under the "double carbon" targets: spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend.

In-depth research on the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend of urban land use carbon emission intensity (ULUCEI) can reveal the internal relationship between urban land use and carbon emissions, which is crucial for achieving carbon emission reduction and "double carbon" targets. This paper proposed a conceptual framework of ULUCEI; the methods of kernel density estimation (KDE), exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and spatial Markov chains were adopted for exploring the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution trend of China's ULUCEI from 2000 to 2017. The following conclusions are drawn through research. (1) There was an increasing trend in ULUCEI in China from 0.102 in 2000 to 0.283 in 2017. From the regional perspective, the ULUCEI in the eastern region is markedly higher than that in the central and western regions. Moreover, the results of nuclear density estimation indicate that China's ULUCEI shows an obvious upward and polarized trend. (2) China's ULUCEI shows a positive spatial autocorrelation. The types of spatial agglomeration include "high-high" agglomeration, "high-low" polarization, "low-high" collapse, and "low-low" homogeneity, and there are obvious disparities in the distribution rules of cities with different spatial agglomeration forms. (3) China's ULUCEI presents strong stability and "club convergence" trend. Moreover, spatial factors significantly affect the dynamic transition of China's ULUCEI, and its effect on the shifting upwards gradually enhances with increasing lag type. This paper therefore suggests that policymakers should formulate differentiated urban land low-carbon use models and carbon emission reduction policies to reduce ULUCEI.

Trends in the global burden of oral cancer joint with attributable risk factors: Results from the global burden of disease study 2019.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the characteristics of risk factors for oral cancer and the disease burden they caused. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from GBD2019, where the EAPC was calculated to understand mortality trends and the APC model was used for the analysis of age characteristics. RESULTS: Overall oral cancer mortality showed a promising downward trend [EAPC = -0.05 (-0.08 to -0.02)]. Oral cancer mortality attributable to tobacco chewing alone showed a significant upward trend [EAPC = 0.44 (0.36-0.52)]. Males are the majority of oral cancer deaths, while the disease burden of oral cancer in females could be largely attributable to chewing tobacco. The age of death attributable to each risk factor for oral cancer is concentrated between 45 and 74 years. Mortality for oral cancer caused by alcohol and smokeless tobacco was increasing in younger age groups (age < 45), and this trend was more pronounced in middle and middle-high SDI areas. The disease burden of oral cancer in high SDI regions was mainly attributed to alcohol consumption, while in middle and lower SDI regions it was mainly attributed to tobacco. CONCLUSION: Smokeless tobacco proved a critical factor in the significant regional distribution of oral cancer. Oral cancer is on the increase in younger age groups. According to the characteristics of the distribution of risk factors, in traditionally high-incidence regions, such as India and Pakistan, oral cancer kept the highest ASDR, but was not experiencing the fastest growth rate. Additionally, it was oral cancer in middle SDI regions that needs more attention.

How Regional Integration Affects Urban Green Development Efficiency: Evidence from Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River.

Unlocking the relationship between regional integration and urban green development efficiency (UGDE) is of great importance for boosting regional high-quality development and promoting sustainable urban development patterns. Although studies have analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of regional integration and UGDE, the impact of regional integration on UGDE remains untested. In this paper, we construct a conceptual framework to analyze how regional integration can influence UGDE through promoting the factors mobility and optimizing the industrial layout. In addition, we further choose the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (UAMRYR), a rapidly growing urban agglomeration in central China, as a case to investigate the spatial spillover effect of regional integration on UGDE from 2003 to 2017. We quantify the UGDE with a random forest model, then estimate the underlying determinants of the UGDE with a spatial Durbin model. Results indicated that (1) the regional integration level and the UGDE index of the UAMRYR and its three sub-urban agglomerations show an increasing trend; (2) for every 1% increase in the level of regional integration, the level of UGDE will increase by 0.8307%; (3) the impact of regional integration on UGDE has obvious regional heterogeneity; while playing a promoting effect in the Wuhan urban agglomeration and the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, it shows an inhibitory effect in the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration. We conclude that regional integration in agglomeration areas can accelerate the factors flow and optimize the industrial layout for improving UGDE.

How Do Urban Land Expansion, Land Finance, and Economic Growth Interact?

Land finance has consumed a lot of China's urban land resources while contributing to its economic growth. Urban land expansion, land finance, and economic growth have attracted significant scholarly and social attention. However, the influence mechanisms among them have not yet been fully investigated. Based on a conceptual framework analysis, in this study, the panel unit-root test, system-GMM, panel Granger causality test, impulse-response analysis, and variance decomposition were used to analyze the interactional relationships among urban land expansion, land finance, and economic growth for 30 provinces in mainland China during the period of 2000-2017. The findings show that these three factors interact with each other. Land finance exhibits a positive effect on urban land expansion and economic growth. This result is further supported by the Granger causality tests. Moreover, the VAR Granger causality-test results show a unidirectional causality flowing from urban land expansion to economic growth. The impulse-response analysis also reveals that the responses of urban land expansion to shocks in land finance appear to be positive throughout the 10 periods, which is similar to the reaction of economic growth to shocks in land finance. The result of variance decomposition indicates that the explanatory power of urban land expansion for land finance increased from 0.20% to 1.90%. In contrast, the changes in economic growth made the lowest contributions to urban land expansion and land finance. The latter made the highest contribution to economic growth, with average contribution rate of 65.26%. The findings of this study provide valuable policy implications for China, heading for a high-quality development stage.