RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Symptomatic hemorrhage contributes to an increased risk of repeated bleeding and morbidity in cerebral cavernous malformation (CCM). A better understanding of morbidity after CCM hemorrhage would be helpful to identify patients of higher risk for unfavorable outcome and tailor individualized management. METHODS: We identified 282 consecutive patients who referred to our institute from 2014 to 2018 for CCM with symptomatic hemorrhage and had an untreated follow-up period over 6 months after the first hemorrhage. The morbidity after hemorrhage was described in CCM of different features. Nomogram to predict morbidity was formulated based on the multivariable model of risk factors. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were determined with concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, and further validated in an independent CCM cohort of a prospective multicenter study from 2019 to 2020. RESULTS: The overall morbidity of CCM was 26.2% after a mean follow-up of 1.9 years (range 0.5-3.5 years) since the first hemorrhage. The morbidity during untreated follow-up was associated with hemorrhage ictus (adjusted odds ratio per ictus increase, 4.17 [95% CI, 1.86-9.33]), modified Rankin Scale score at initial hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio per point increase, 2.57 [95% CI, 1.82-3.63]), brainstem location (adjusted odds ratio, 2.93 [95% CI, 1.28-6.68]), and associated developmental venous anomaly (adjusted odds ratio, 2.21 [95% CI, 1.01-4.83]). Subgroup analysis revealed similar findings in brainstem and non-brainstem CCM. Nomogram was contracted based on these features. The calibration curve showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomogram predicting morbidity was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.88). In validation cohort, the nomogram maintained the discriminative ability (C-index, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.78-0.96]). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple symptomatic hemorrhages, initial neurological function after hemorrhage, brainstem location, and associated developmental venous anomaly were associated with morbidity of CCM hemorrhage. The nomogram represented a practical approach to provide individualized risk assessment for CCM patients. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT04076449.