Global burden and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among adolescents and young adults in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Current studies on musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders mainly focus on the elderly, while adolescents and young adults (AYAs) are often neglected despite their unique epidemiology, healthcare needs and societal implications. To bridge this gap, we evaluated the global burden and temporal trends of MSK disorders among AYAs from 1990 to 2019, as well as their common categories and main risk factors. METHODS: Data on the global burden and risk factors of MSK disorders were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019. Age standardized rates for incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated using the world population age standard, and their temporal trends were evaluated by estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) regression was used to explore the association between two variables. RESULTS: Over the past 30 years, MSK disorders have become the third leading cause of global DALYs among AYAs, with 36.2%, 39.3%, and 21.2% of increases in incident cases, prevalent cases and DALYs, respectively. In 2019, age standardized incidence, prevalence and DALY rates for MSK disorders were positivity associated with socio-demographic index (SDI) among AYAs in 204 countries and territories. The global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of MSK disorders began to increases among AYAs since 2000. In the last decade, countries with high SDI not only presented the only increase in age-standardized incidence rate across all SDI quintiles (EAPC = 0.40, 0.15 to 0.65), but also displayed the most rapid increases in age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates (EAPC = 0.41, 0.24 to 0.57; 0.39, 0.19 to 0.58, respectively). Low back pain (LBP) and neck pain (NP) were the most common MSK disorders among AYAs, accounting for 47.2% and 15.4% of global DALYs of MSK disorders in this population, respectively. Rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), and gout exhibited increasing trends in global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates among AYAs over the past 30 years (all EAPC >0), whereas LBP and NP showed declining trends (all EAPC <0). Occupational ergonomic factors, smoking and high BMI accounted for 13.9%, 4.3%, and 2.7% of global DALYs for MSK disorders among AYAs, respectively. The proportion of DALYs attributable to occupational ergonomic factors was negatively associated with SDI, whereas the proportions attributable to smoking and high BMI increased with SDI. Over the last 30 years, both the proportions of DALYs attributable to occupational ergonomic factors and smoking have consistently decreased globally and across all SDI quintiles, while the proportion attributable to high BMI has increased. CONCLUSIONS: MSK disorders have emerged as the third leading cause of global DALYs among AYAs over the past three decades. Countries with high SDI should make more efforts to tackle the dual challenges posed by the high levels and rapid increases in age standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates in the last decade.

Dengue Incidence Trends and Its Burden in Major Endemic Regions from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Dengue has become one of the major vector-borne diseases, which has been an important public health concern. We aimed to estimate the disease burden of dengue in major endemic regions from 1990 to 2019, and explore the impact pattern of the socioeconomic factors on the burden of dengue based on the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2019 (GBD 2019). METHODS: Using the analytical strategies and data from the GBD 2019, we described the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of dengue in major endemic regions from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, we estimated the correlation between dengue burden and socioeconomic factors, and then established an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the epidemic trends of dengue in endemic regions. All estimates were proposed as numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs). The ASRs of dengue incidence were compared geographically and five regions were stratified by a sociodemographic index (SDI). RESULTS: A significant rise was observed on a global scale between 1990 and 2019, with the overall age-standardized rate (ASR) increasing from 557.15 (95% UI 243.32-1212.53) per 100,000 in 1990 to 740.4 (95% UI 478.2-1323.1) per 100,000 in 2019. In 2019, the Oceania region had the highest age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 population (3173.48 (95% UI 762.33-6161.18)), followed by the South Asia region (1740.79 (95% UI 660.93-4287.12)), and then the Southeast Asia region (1153.57 (95% UI 1049.49-1281.59)). In Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, increase trends were found in the burden of dengue fever measured by ASRs of DALY which were consistent with ASRs of dengue incidence at the national level. Most of the countries with the heaviest burden of dengue fever occurred in areas with low and medium SDI regions. However, the burden in high-middle and high-SDI countries is relatively low, especially the Solomon Islands and Tonga in Oceania, the Maldives in South Asia and Indonesia in Southeast Asia. The age distribution results of the incidence rate and disease burden of dengue fever of major endemic regions showed that the higher risk and disease burden are mainly concentrated in people under 14 or over 70 years old. The prediction by ARIMA showed that the risk of dengue fever in South and Southeast Asia is on the rise, and further prevention and control is warranted. CONCLUSIONS: In view of the rapid population growth and urbanization in many dengue-endemic countries, our research results are of great significance for presenting the future trend in dengue fever. It is recommended to policy makers that specific attention needs to be paid to the negative impact of urbanization on dengue incidence and allocate more resources to the low-SDI areas and people under 14 or over 70 years old to reduce the burden of dengue fever.