Assessing the influence of the digital economy on carbon emissions: Evidence at the global level.

This paper discusses the influence of the digital economy (DE) on carbon emissions based on evidence at the global level. Specifically, based on the panel data from 80 countries from 2010 to 2020, this paper creates a DE measurement index and uses the System-GMM model to assess the influence of DE on carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) The development of DE significantly promotes carbon emissions reduction. (2) The development of DE significantly promotes carbon emissions reduction through technological advancement, structural optimization, and educational enhancement; (3) Regulatory quality and financial development play a positively moderating role in DE's promoting effect on carbon emissions reduction; (4) DE of European and North American nations have stronger promoting effect on carbon emissions reduction than DE of other countries. Compared to DE of developing countries, DE of developed countries has a stronger promoting effect on carbon emissions reduction. Additionally, this paper also finds that institutional differences can impact the carbon emission reduction effects of DE. Based on the results, this paper suggests that governments globally should promote the development of DE and foster international cooperation to enhance DE's driving role in promoting carbon emissions reduction.

Clinical Needs Assessment of a Machine Learning-Based Asthma Management Tool: User-Centered Design Approach.

BACKGROUND: Personalized asthma management depends on a clinician's ability to efficiently review patient's data and make timely clinical decisions. Unfortunately, efficient and effective review of these data is impeded by the varied format, location, and workflow of data acquisition, storage, and processing in the electronic health record. While machine learning (ML) and clinical decision support tools are well-positioned as potential solutions, the translation of such frameworks requires that barriers to implementation be addressed in the formative research stages. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to use a structured user-centered design approach (double-diamond design framework) to (1) qualitatively explore clinicians' experience with the current asthma management system, (2) identify user requirements to improve algorithm explainability and Asthma Guidance and Prediction System prototype, and (3) identify potential barriers to ML-based clinical decision support system use. METHODS: At the "discovery" phase, we first shadowed to understand the practice context. Then, semistructured interviews were conducted digitally with 14 clinicians who encountered pediatric asthma patients at 2 outpatient facilities. Participants were asked about their current difficulties in gathering information for patients with pediatric asthma, their expectations of ideal workflows and tools, and suggestions on user-centered interfaces and features. At the "define" phase, a synthesis analysis was conducted to converge key results from interviewees' insights into themes, eventually forming critical "how might we" research questions to guide model development and implementation. RESULTS: We identified user requirements and potential barriers associated with three overarching themes: (1) usability and workflow aspects of the ML system, (2) user expectations and algorithm explainability, and (3) barriers to implementation in context. Even though the responsibilities and workflows vary among different roles, the core asthma-related information and functions they requested were highly cohesive, which allows for a shared information view of the tool. Clinicians hope to perceive the usability of the model with the ability to note patients' high risks and take proactive actions to manage asthma efficiently and effectively. For optimal ML algorithm explainability, requirements included documentation to support the validity of algorithm development and output logic, and a request for increased transparency to build trust and validate how the algorithm arrived at the decision. Acceptability, adoption, and sustainability of the asthma management tool are implementation outcomes that are reliant on the proper design and training as suggested by participants. CONCLUSIONS: As part of our comprehensive informatics-based process centered on clinical usability, we approach the problem using a theoretical framework grounded in user experience research leveraging semistructured interviews. Our focus on meeting the needs of the practice with ML technology is emphasized by a user-centered approach to clinician engagement through upstream technology design.

A low-cost and portable fluorometer based on an optical pick-up unit for chlorophyll-a detection.

Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) fluorescence detection is an important technique for monitoring water quality. In this work, we proposed an approach that employs the mass-produced low-cost optical pick-up unit (OPU) extracted from the high-definition digital versatile disc (HD-DVD) drive as the key optical component for our chlorophyll-a fluorometer. The built-in blue-violet 405 nm laser diode of the OPU acts as the excitation light to perform laser-induced fluorescence (LIF). The laser driver and a series of intrinsic lenses within the OPU, such as an objective lens with a numerical aperture (NA) of 0.65 and a collimating lens, help reduce the size, cost, and system complexity of the fluorometer. By integrating off-the-shelf electronic components, miniaturized optical setups, and 3D-printed assemblies, we have developed a low-cost, easy-to-make, standalone, and portable fluorometer. Finally, we validated the performance of the device for chlorophyll-a fluorescence detection under laboratory and on-site conditions, which demonstrated its great potential in water monitoring applications. The limit of detection (LOD) for chlorophyll-a is 0.35 µg/L, the size of the device is 151 × 100 × 80 mm3, and the total cost of the proposed fluorometer is as low as 137.5 USD. © 2023 Elsevier Science. All rights reserved.

[Application of Preschool Auditory Processing Assessment Scale in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder]. / å­¦é¾„å‰å„¿ç«¥å¬å¤„ç†è¯„ä¼°é‡è¡¨åœ¨æ³¨æ„ç¼ºé™·å¤šåŠ¨éšœç¢å„¿ç«¥ä¸­çš„åº”ç”¨ç ”ç©¶.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the characteristics of auditory processing (AP) in preschool children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using Preschool Auditory Processing Assessment Scale (hereafter referred to as "auditory processing scale"). METHODS: A total of 41 children with ADHD and 41 typically developing (TD) children were assessed using the auditory processing scale, SNAP-IV rating scale, and Conners' Kiddie Continuous Performance Test (K-CPT). The auditory processing scale score was compared between the TD and ADHD groups. The correlations of the score with SNAP-IV and K-CPT scores were assessed. RESULTS: Compared with the TD group, the ADHD group had significantly higher total score of the auditory processing scale and scores of all dimensions except visual attention (P<0.05). In the children with ADHD, the attention deficit dimension score of the SNAP-IV rating scale was positively correlated with the total score of the auditory processing scale (rs30=0.531, P<0.05; rs27=0.627, P<0.05) as well as the scores of its subdimensions, including auditory decoding (rs=0.628, P<0.05), auditory attention (rs=0.492, P<0.05), and communication (rs=0.399, P<0.05). The hyperactivity-impulsivity dimension score of the SNAP-IV rating scale was positively correlated with the hyperactivity-impulsivity dimension score of the auditory processing scale (rs=0.429, P<0.05). In the children with ADHD, the attention deficit dimension score of the K-CPT was positively correlated with the total score (rs30=0.574, P<0.05; rs27=0.485, P<0.05) and the hyperactivity-impulsivity dimension score (rs=0.602, P<0.05) of the auditory processing scale. CONCLUSIONS: Preschool children with ADHD have the risk of AP abnormalities, and the auditory processing scale should be used early for the screening and evaluation of AP abnormalities in children.

Values of different biochemical indices and clinical scoring systems for the assessment of acute biliary pancreatitis in a Chinese population.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate values of biochemical indices and clinical scoring systems for the assessment of acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP). METHODS: Clinical characteristics, laboratory values including procalcitonin (PCT), and radiologic examinations of all ABP patients with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), or severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) were recorded within 48 hours after the onset of acute pancreatitis. Scores of the Accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Computed Tomography Severity Index (CTSI), Ranson, Japanese Severity Score (JSS), Pancreatitis Outcome Prediction (POP) Score and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) score were then calculated. The area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive values of biochemical indexes and scoring systems for ABP severity and organ failure. RESULTS: The percentage of patients over 60 in the SAP group was higher than in the MAP and MSAP groups. PCT had the highest value for predicting SAP (AUC = 0.84, P < 0.001) and organ failure (AUC = 0.87, P < 0.001). The AUCs of APACHE II, BISAP, JSS and SIRS for predicting severity were 0.87, 0.83, 0.82, and 0.81, respectively (all P < 0.001). As for organ failure, the AUCs were 0.87, 0.85, 0.84, and 0.82, respectively (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PCT has a high value for predicting ABP severity and organ failure. Among the clinical scoring systems, BISAP and SIRS are more suitable for early assessment of AP; while APACHE II and JSS are more suitable for monitoring disease progression after thorough examination.

How does air pollution affect the stock market performance? Evidence from China.

Given its broad impact on human society, air pollution could become a non-economic factor affecting the stock market. But the impact of air pollution on the stock market performance has not received enough attention. This study examines the influence and potential mechanism of air pollution on stock market performance based on the panel data of 1344 A-share listed firms in China covering the period 2013-2019. The result shows that air pollution can negatively affect stock market performance. Second, heterogeneity analysis creatively points out that firms with less analysts, smaller size, stated-owned ownership, polluting related industry are more vulnerable to the negative effects of air pollution. Finally, the result also reveals a mechanism that air pollution could worsen the stock market by depressing investors' sentiments. The above findings enrich current research related to the impact of air pollution on stock market performance and also provide a new perspective for investors to make stock investment decisions.

Translation and validation of the Chinese version of the orthorexia nervosa assessment questionnaires among college students.

PURPOSE: The main objective of the study was to translate, validate, and compare the Chinese ORTO scales (ORTO-15 and ORTO-R). The secondary objective was to assess factors that may be related with risk of orthorexia nervosa (ON). METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted on March-to-June 2021 for ORTO-15 and April 2022 for ORTO-R. ORTO questionnaires were translated into Chinese using the forward-backward-forward method. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA), discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were used to examine the construct validity of the questionnaires. The internal consistency was assessed using the Cronbach alpha coefficient and the test-retest reliability. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to explore potential factors related with ON scores. RESULTS: Totally, 1289 and 1084 eligible participants were included for assessment of ORTO-15 and ORTO-R, with the mean age of 20.9 ± 2.0 years and 21.0 ± 2.3 years. The internal consistency of Chinese ORTO-15 scale and ORTO-R scale were both satisfactory (α = 0.79, ICC = 0.79; α = 0.77, ICC = 0.82). However, all ORTO-15 models showed a poor fit using CFA whereas the ORTO-R was characterized by acceptable goodness-of-fit. Multivariate linear regression indicated that physical activities and mental disorders were positively associated with ON risk assessed by both ORTO-R and ORTO-15. CONCLUSION: The Chinese ORTO-R scale was a more reliable tool to screen for ON tendencies than the Chinese version of ORTO-15. Mental disorders and physical activities might be associated with the increased ON risk. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level V (descriptive cross-sectional study).

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cancer in Children Younger Than 5 Years, 1990-2019: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Objectives: To quantify the burden and variation trends of cancers in children under 5 years at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Epidemiological data for children under 5 years who were diagnosed with any one childhood cancer were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) from 1990 to 2019. The outcomes were the absolute numbers and rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for different types of cancer. Results: In 2019, 8,774,979.1 incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 6,243,599.2 to11,737,568.5) and 8,956,583.8 (6,446,323.9 to 12,364,520.8) prevalent cases of cancer in children under 5 years were identified worldwide; these cancers resulted in 44,451.6 (36,198.7 to 53,905.9) deaths and 3,918,014.8 (3,196,454.9 to 4,751,304.2) DALYs. From 1990 to 2019, although the numbers of incident and prevalent cases only decreased by -4.6% (-7.0 to -2.2) and -8.3% (-12.6 to -3.4), respectively, the numbers of deaths and DALYs clearly declined by -47.8% (-60.7 to -26.4) and -47.7% (-60.7 to -26.2), respectively. In 2019, the middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions had the highest incidence and prevalence, whereas the low SDI regions had the most mortality and DALYs. Although all of the SDI regions displayed a steady drop in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019, the low-middle and low SDI regions showed increasing trends of incidence and prevalence. Leukemia remained the most common cancer globally in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the burdens of leukemia, liver cancer, and Hodgkin's lymphoma declined, whereas the incidence and prevalence of other cancers grew, particularly testicular cancer. Conclusions: The global childhood cancer burden in young children has been steadily decreasing over the past three decades. However, the burdens and other characteristics have varied across different regions and types of cancers. This highlights the need to reorient current treatment strategies and establish effective prevention methods to reduce the global burden of childhood cancer.

The global burden and associated factors of ovarian cancer in 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer (OC) is a major cause of cancer-related deaths among women. The aim of this study was to estimate and report data on the current burden of ovarian cancer worldwide over the past 30 years. METHOD: Based on the data provided by GBD 2019, we collected and interpreted the disease data of ovarian cancer by incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and used corresponding age-standardized rates as indicators. Also, we categorized the data by attributed risk factors and captured deaths due to high fasting plasma glucose, occupational exposure to asbestos and high body-mass index, respectively. All outcomes in the study were reported using mean values and corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI). RESULTS: Globally, there were 294422 (260649 to 329727) incident cases in 2019, and the number of deaths and DALYs were 198412 (175357 to 217665) and 5.36 million (4.69 to 5.95). The overall burden was on the rise, with a percentage change of 107.8% (76.1 to 135.7%) for new cases, 103.8% (75.7 to 126.4%) for deaths and 96.1% (65.0 to 120.5%) for DALYs. Whereas the age-standardized rates kept stable during 1990-2019. The burden of ovarian cancer increased with age. and showed a totally different trends among SDI regions. Although high SDI region had the declining rates, the burden of ovarian cancer remained stable in high-middle and low SDI regions, and the middle and low-middle SDI areas showed increasing trends. High fasting plasma glucose was estimated to be the most important attributable risk factor for ovarian cancer deaths globally, with a percentage change of deaths of 7.9% (1.6 to 18.3%), followed by occupational exposure to asbestos and high body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Although the age-standardized rates of ovarian cancer didn't significantly change at the global level, the burden still increased, especially in areas on the lower end of the SDI range. Also, the disease burden due to different attributable risk factors showed heterogeneous, and it became more severe with age.

Programmable patterned MoS2 film by direct laser writing for health-related signals monitoring.

The two-dimensional (2D) transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) are promising flexible electronic materials for strategic flexible information devices. Large-area and high-quality patterned materials were usually required by flexible electronics due to the limitation from the process of manufacturing and integration. However, the synthesis of large-area patterned 2D TMDs with high quality is difficult. Here, an efficient and powerful pulsed laser has been developed to synthesize wafer-scale MoS2. The flexible strain sensor was fabricated using MoS2 and showed high performance of low detection limit (0.09%), high gauge factor (1,118), and high stability (1,000 cycles). Besides, we demonstrated its applications in real-time monitoring of health-related physiological signals such as radial artery pressure, respiratory rate, and vocal cord vibration. Our findings suggest that the laser-assisted method is effective and capable of synthesizing wafer-scale 2D TMDs, which opens new opportunities for the next flexible electronic devices and wearable health monitoring.

Assessment of ecotoxicity of spent fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) refinery catalysts on Raphidocelis subcapitata and predictive models for toxicity.

The 17 spent fluid catalytic cracking refinery catalysts (SFCCCs) from different petroleum refineries were collected and the leachates of SFCCCs were prepared. The ecotoxicity of SFCCC leachates to Raphidocelis subcapitata was assayed. The results showed that the toxicity of the 17 SFCCCs differ greatly. Ji SFCCC was the most toxic to R. subcapitata with a 96 h EC50 value of 1.38%, while Ha SFCCC was the least toxic, with the EC50 value was >100%. The relationships between the toxicity of SFCCCs and the metal concentrations in leachates were analyzed. The concentration of Ni (p = 0.001), La (p = 0.001), Mn (p = 0.014), Ce (p = 0.017), Co (p = 0.018), and Ca (p = 0.031) in leachates showed significant correlation with EC50 values. The predictive model for the ecotoxicity of SFCCCs were established with the concentrations of Ni and La in leachates as: ln(EC50) = 0.817 + exp(1.356 - 1.736 × CNi - 0.262 × CLa) (R2 = 0.926). The main toxic ingredients of SFCCC to microalgae were identified for the first time in this work. The results and predictive model of this study are significance for toxicity determination and management of SFCCCs.

Dynamic characteristics and drivers of the regional household energy-carbon-water nexus in China.

Being a node of the energy-water consumer and carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, the household is one key sector to pilot integrated energy-carbon-water (ECW) management. This study developed an integrated framework to explore China's provincial household ECW nexus as well as their drivers from the years 2000 through 2016. The absolute amount and growth rate of household energy use (HEU), household CO2 emissions (HCE), and household water use (HWU) were abstracted to reveal the dynamic characteristics of the household ECW nexus. Efficiency advance, income growth, urbanization, family size, and household number were defined to explain the changes in the household ECW nexus. This study revealed that there is a huge regional heterogeneity in China's household ECW nexus. Developed regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shanghai are the most important household ECW nexus nodes with larger amounts and growth rates of household ECW. Income growth overwhelmingly increases ECW, while efficiency advance effectively curbs its growth. Comparatively, household number, family size, and urbanization have small effects. Therefore, implementing differentiated management and focusing on the synergy of socioeconomic factors are the keys to achieving integrated household ECW management. And the analytical framework can be used to analyze ECW nexus from a sector, city, or country perspective.

Population-based analysis of the effect of a comprehensive, systematic change in an emergency medical services resource allocation plan on 24-hour mortality.

BACKGROUND: Resource allocation planning for emergency medical services (EMS) systems determines appropriate resources including what paramedic qualification and how rapidly to respond to patients for optimal outcomes. The British Columbia Emergency Health Services implemented a revised response plan in 2013. METHODS: A pre- and post-methodology was used to evaluate the effect of the resource allocation plan revision on 24-hour mortality. All adult cases with evaluable outcome data (obtained through linked provincial health administrative data) were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for variations in other significant associated factors. Interrupted time series analysis was used to estimate immediate changes in level or trend of outcome after the start of the revised resource allocation plan implementation, while simultaneously controlling for pre-existing trends. RESULTS: The derived cohort comprised 562,546 cases (April 2012-March 2015). When adjusted for age, sex, urban/metro region, season, day, hour, and dispatch determinant, the probability of dying within 24 hours of an EMS call was 7% lower in the post-resource allocation plan-revision cohort (OR = 0.936; 95% CI: 0.886-0.989; p = 0.018). A subgroup analysis of immediately life-threatening cases demonstrated similar effect (OR = 0.890; 95% CI: 0.808-0.981; p = 0.019). Using time series analysis, the descending changes in overall 24-hour mortality trend and the 24-hour mortality trend in immediately life-threatening cases, were both statistically significant (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Comprehensive, evidence-informed reconstruction of a provincial EMS resource allocation plan is feasible. Despite change in crew level response and resource allocation, there was significant decrease in 24-hour mortality in this pan-provincial population-based cohort.

Comprehensive assessment of the association between genes on JAK-STAT pathway (IFIH1, TYK2, IL-10) and systemic lupus erythematosus: a meta-analysis.

Previous studies have reported that genes relating to JAK-STAT pathway (IFIH1, TYK2 and IL-10) conferred the susceptibility to SLE. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis (including 43 studies) to evaluate the association between IFIH1 (9288 patients and 24,040 controls), TYK2 (4928 patients and 11,536 controls), IL-10 (3623 patients and 4907 controls) polymorphisms and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a comprehensive way. We found that IFIH1 rs1990760_T allele was associated with risk of SLE in overall population under three models (allelic: P = 2.56 × 10-11, OR 1.135, 95% CI 1.094-1.179, dominant: P = 1.8 × 10-8, OR 1.203, 95% CI 1.128-1.284, recessive: P = 2.6 × 10-7, OR 1.163, 95% CI 1.098-1.231). A strong association had been observed between TYK2 polymorphism rs2304256_C allele and SLE in Europeans (P = 5.82 × 10-5, OR 1.434, 95% CI 1.203-1.710). When coming to overall population, TYK2 rs2304256_C showed a significant association with SLE under recessive model (P = 8.05 × 10-3, OR 1.314, 95% CI 1.074-1.608). However, the other two SNPs (rs12720270, rs280519) of TYK2 were not significant. The results also indicated an association between IL-10 rs1800896_G allele and SLE in Asians under recessive model (P = 4.65 × 10-3, OR 2.623, 95% CI 1.346-5.115), while, IL-10 rs1800896_G had a trend of association with SLE in European population in dominant model (P = 1.21 × 10-2, OR 1.375, 95% CI 1.072-1.764). In addition, we found IL-10 rs1800896 GG homozygote might be associated with increased susceptibility to SLE (GG vs AA, P = 4.65 × 10-3, OR 1.539, 95% CI 1.142-2.072). We concluded that IFIH1 rs1990760_T and TYK2 rs2304256_C alleles were significantly associated with SLE, and IL-10 rs1800896 GG homozygote might have an enhancement effect on SLE risk.

Do organizational and political-legal arrangements explain financial wrongdoing?

The 2008 financial crisis was a systemic problem with deep-rooted structural causes that created opportunities to engage in financial malfeasance, a form of corporate wrongdoing. However, few quantitative studies exist on the effects of organizational and political-legal arrangements on financial malfeasance. In this paper, we examine the effects of organizational and political-legal arrangements that emerged in the 1990s in the FIRE sector (i.e., financial, insurance, and real estate) on financial malfeasance. Our historical contextualization demonstrates how changes in the political-legal arrangements facilitate the emergence of new corporate structures and opportunities for financial malfeasance. Our longitudinal quantitative analysis demonstrates that US FIRE sector corporations with a more complex organizational structure, larger size, lower dividend payment, and higher executive compensation are more prone to commit financial malfeasance.

Raltegravir in second-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings (SELECT): a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority study.

BACKGROUND: For second-line antiretroviral therapy, WHO recommends a boosted protease inhibitor plus nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). However, concerns about toxicity and cross-resistance motivated a search for regimens that do not contain NRTIs. We aimed to assess whether boosted lopinavir plus raltegravir would be non-inferior to boosted lopinavir plus NRTIs for virological suppression in resource-limited settings. METHODS: A5273 was a randomised, open-label, phase 3, non-inferiority study at 15 AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) research sites in nine resource-limited countries (three sites each in India and South Africa, two each in Malawi and Peru, and one each in Brazil, Kenya, Tanzania, Thailand, and Zimbabwe). Adults with plasma HIV-1 RNA concentrations of at least 1000 copies per mL after at least 24 weeks on a regimen based on a non-NRTI inhibitor were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (100 mg ritonavir, 400 mg lopinavir) plus 400 mg raltegravir twice a day (raltegravir group) or to ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus two or three NRTIs selected from an algorithm (eg, zidovudine after failure with tenofovir and vice versa; NRTI group). Randomised group assignment was done with a computer algorithm concealed to site personnel, and stratified by HIV-1 RNA viral load, CD4 cell count, and intention to use zidovudine, with the groups balanced by each site. The primary endpoint was time to confirmed virological failure (two measurements of HIV-1 RNA viral load >400 copies per mL) at or after week 24 in the intention-to-treat population. Non-inferiority (10% margin) was assessed by comparing the cumulative probability of virological failure by 48 weeks. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01352715. FINDINGS: Between March 13, 2012, and Oct 2, 2013, we randomly assigned 515 participants: 260 to the raltegravir group and 255 to the NRTI group; two participants in the raltegravir group and one in the NRTI group were excluded from analyses because of ineligibility. By the end of follow-up (October, 2014), 96 participants had virological failure (46 in the raltegravir group and 50 in the NRTI group). By 48 weeks, the cumulative probability of virological failure was 10·3% (95% CI 6·5-14·0) in the raltegravir group and 12·4% (8·3-16·5) in the NRTI group, with a weighted difference of -3·4% (-8·4 to 1·5), indicating that raltegravir was non-inferior, but not superior, to NRTIs. 62 (24%) participants in the raltegravir group and 81 (32%) in the NRTI group had grade 3 or higher adverse events; 19 (7%) and 29 (11%), respectively, had serious adverse events. Three participants in each group died, all from HIV-related causes. INTERPRETATION: In settings with extensive NRTI resistance but no available resistance testing, our data support WHO's recommendation for ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus NRTI for second-line antiretroviral therapy. Ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus raltegravir is an appropriate alternative, especially if NRTI use is limited by toxicity. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.