Trends in Mortality Related to Hepatitis B and C from 1990 to 2019 in the Western Pacific Region.

Background/Aims: : This study aimed to analyze the trends in mortality attributed to hepatitis B and C around the Western Pacific region from 1990 to 2019. Methods: : We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for a systematic analysis. The deaths related to hepatitis B and C were analyzed by age, sex, year, risk factors, geographical location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Results: : From 1990 to 2019, the annual total deaths from hepatitis B decreased from 0.266 to 0.210 million and those from hepatitis C increased from 0.119 to 0.142 million in the Western Pacific region. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of hepatitis B and C decreased by 63.5% and 48.0%, respectively. The declines in the ASMR related to hepatitis B and C were only detected in 12 and two Western Pacific countries, respectively. As the major risk factors, the contribution of alcohol use to hepatitis B deaths was 52% and drug use to hepatitis C was 80%. In males and females, the ASMR attributed to hepatitis B decreased by 61% and 71%, respectively, and the ASMR attributed to hepatitis C decreased by 43% and 55%, respectively. The association between SDI and ASMRs suggested that hepatitis B and C, respectively, showed an overall decline and stable trends as the SDI improved in the Western Pacific region. Conclusions: : Although the mortality rate from hepatitis B and C decreased from 1990 to 2019, notable variation was observed among 27 Western Pacific countries. Efforts targeting hepatitis B and C prevention and treatment are still required in this region, especially for the pandemic countries.

Universal screening for HCV infection in China: An effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background & Aims: Approximately 10 million people live with chronic HCV infection in China, and less than 20% of people with HCV were diagnosed. We aim to determine the cost-effectiveness of one-time HCV screening compared with no screening in the Chinese population from the healthcare system perspective. Methods: A decision-tree plus Markov model was adopted to project chronic hepatitis C (CHC) prevalence, probability of complications, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs in the Chinese general population undiagnosed for CHC for different screening strategies. Once CHC was diagnosed, pan-genotypic direct-acting antiviral agent treatment was administered regardless of fibrosis. The population was simulated in a model spanning a lifetime. Input parameters were obtained from published literature. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between screening and no screening was estimated. The one-time Chinese gross domestic product per capita in 2021 ($12,558/QALY) was used as the willingness-to-pay threshold. Results: Universal screening in the population aged 3-80 years led to the lowest probability of complications, which yielded a 62% reduction of excess mortality. Compared with no screening, implementing screening and treatment for HCV in populations aged 3-80 years resulted in the greatest marginal QALYs (15.2 per 1,000 population) with an increase in total costs of $109,136. Calculating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio yields a value of $9,503/QALY (95% uncertainty interval $3,738-$22,566). The robustness of the model was demonstrated through various sensitivity analyses. If the CHC prevalence was over 0.3%, screening could be cost-effective. Conclusions: HCV screening for Chinese people aged 3-80 years may be a cost-effective intervention to reduce the disease burden related to HCV infection. This strategy should certainly be implemented. Impact and implications: This study found that screening Chinese people aged 3-80 years yielded the greatest health benefits and was a cost-effective alternative. The findings indicated that national efforts eliminating HCV should be invested and strengthened in China. The results of this study are important because they provide strong evidence that universal screening can be a cost-effective way to reduce the burden of HCV in China. These findings are important for policymakers, physicians, patients, caregivers, and the public because they promote awareness and inform decision-making for HCV prevention and treatment.

Cost-Effectiveness of New Quadruple Therapy Compared With Standard Treatment for Patients With Heart Failure in China.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of the new quadruple therapy regimen of adding sodium-glucose-linked transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, with standard treatment for patients with heart failure (HF) in China. From the payer's perspective, the dates of cardiovascular event recurrences were extracted from a meta-analysis including 6 trials, combined with the treatment cost for patients with HF in China to construct a Markov model. The outcomes included per capita medical costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) data. Single-factor, probability sensitivity analysis, and scenario analysis were used to explore the potential uncertainties of the model. The per capita costs of the new quadruple therapy regimen and standard treatment were $87441.26 and $87087.54, respectively. The new regimen was associated with a mean of 21.44 QALYs gained, compared with 18.60 QALYs gained with the standard treatment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $124.03 per QALY gained. The sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in the parameters within the set range did not affect the model results. In China, compared with standard treatment, the new quadruple therapy regimen with SGLT2 inhibitors reduce the frequency of cardiovascular events among patients with HF, and it has economic advantages.

Bayesian Trend Filtering via Proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

Proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a novel construct that lies at the intersection of Bayesian computation and convex optimization, which helped popularize the use of nondifferentiable priors in Bayesian statistics. Existing formulations of proximal MCMC, however, require hyperparameters and regularization parameters to be prespecified. In this work, we extend the paradigm of proximal MCMC through introducing a novel new class of nondifferentiable priors called epigraph priors. As a proof of concept, we place trend filtering, which was originally a nonparametric regression problem, in a parametric setting to provide a posterior median fit along with credible intervals as measures of uncertainty. The key idea is to replace the nonsmooth term in the posterior density with its Moreau-Yosida envelope, which enables the application of the gradient-based MCMC sampler Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The proposed method identifies the appropriate amount of smoothing in a data-driven way, thereby automating regularization parameter selection. Compared with conventional proximal MCMC methods, our method is mostly tuning free, achieving simultaneous calibration of the mean, scale and regularization parameters in a fully Bayesian framework.

Assessment of QRISK3 as a predictor of cardiovascular disease events in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Background: The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in diabetes mellitus (DM) patients is two- to three-fold higher than in the general population. We designed a 10-year cohort trial in T2DM patients to explore the performance of QRESEARCH risk estimator version 3 (QRISK3) as a CVD risk assessment tool and compared to Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Method: This is a single-center analysis of prospective data collected from 566 newly-diagnosed patients with type 2 DM (T2DM). The risk scores were compared to CVD development in patients with and without CVD. The risk variables of CVD were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate cox regression analysis. The number of patients classified as low risk (<10%), intermediate risk (10%-20%), and high risk (>20%) for two tools were identified and compared, as well as their sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and consistency (C) statistics analysis. Results: Among the 566 individuals identified in our cohort, there were 138 (24.4%) CVD episodes. QRISK3 classified most CVD patients as high risk, with 91 (65.9%) patients. QRISK3 had a high sensitivity of 91.3% on a 10% cut-off dichotomy, but a higher specificity of 90.7% on a 20% cut-off dichotomy. With a 10% cut-off dichotomy, FRS had a higher specificity of 89.1%, but a higher sensitivity of 80.1% on a 20% cut-off dichotomy. Regardless of the cut-off dichotomy approach, the C-statistics of QRISK3 were higher than those of FRS. Conclusion: QRISK3 comprehensively and accurately predicted the risk of CVD events in T2DM patients, superior to FRS. In the future, we need to conduct a large-scale T2DM cohort study to verify further the ability of QRISK3 to predict CVD events.

Giant pyroelectricity in nanomembranes.

Pyroelectricity describes the generation of electricity by temporal temperature change in polar materials1-3. When free-standing pyroelectric materials approach the 2D crystalline limit, how pyroelectricity behaves remained largely unknown. Here, using three model pyroelectric materials whose bonding characters along the out-of-plane direction vary from van der Waals (In2Se3), quasi-van der Waals (CsBiNb2O7) to ionic/covalent (ZnO), we experimentally show the dimensionality effect on pyroelectricity and the relation between lattice dynamics and pyroelectricity. We find that, for all three materials, when the thickness of free-standing sheets becomes small, their pyroelectric coefficients increase rapidly. We show that the material with chemical bonds along the out-of-plane direction exhibits the greatest dimensionality effect. Experimental observations evidence the possible influence of changed phonon dynamics in crystals with reduced thickness on their pyroelectricity. Our findings should stimulate fundamental study on pyroelectricity in ultra-thin materials and inspire technological development for potential pyroelectric applications in thermal imaging and energy harvesting.

Risk controlled decision trees and random forests for precision Medicine.

Statistical methods generating individualized treatment rules (ITRs) often focus on maximizing expected benefit, but these rules may expose patients to excess risk. For instance, aggressive treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D) with insulin therapies may result in an ITR which controls blood glucose levels but increases rates of hypoglycemia, diminishing the appeal of the ITR. This work proposes two methods to identify risk-controlled ITRs (rcITR), a class of ITR which maximizes a benefit while controlling risk at a prespecified threshold. A novel penalized recursive partitioning algorithm is developed which optimizes an unconstrained, penalized value function. The final rule is a risk-controlled decision tree (rcDT) that is easily interpretable. A natural extension of the rcDT model, risk controlled random forests (rcRF), is also proposed. Simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of rcRF modeling. Three variable importance measures are proposed to further guide clinical decision-making. Both rcDT and rcRF procedures can be applied to data from randomized controlled trials or observational studies. An extensive simulation study interrogates the performance of the proposed methods. A data analysis of the DURABLE diabetes trial in which two therapeutics were compared is additionally presented. An R package implements the proposed methods ( https://github.com/kdoub5ha/rcITR).

Assessment of complications and short-term outcomes of percutaneous peritoneal dialysis catheter insertion by conventional or modified Seldinger technique.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the efficacy and short-term complications of a modified technique to percutaneously insert a peritoneal dialysis catheter. METHODS: We reviewed the outcomes of 94 patients who underwent peritoneal dialysis catheterization between October 2017 and April 2020. Of these, 47 cases were placed by a conventional Seldinger technique, whereas 47 cases were placed by a modified technique based on the Seldinger method. The success rates of the catheter insertion and three-month postoperative complications were compared between these two groups. RESULTS: The catheter insertion success rates were comparable between the two groups: 93.6% in the conventional technique group and 97.9% in the modified technique group (p = 0.307). The incidence of postoperative catheter migration was lower using the modified technique (4.3%) than the conventional technique (18.3%) (p = 0.037). None of the patients in the modified technique group had postoperative dialysate leakage, whereas this occurred in 9.0% of patients in the conventional technique group (p = 0.036). There were no statistically significant differences in the incidence of postoperative bleeding, infection, or visceral damage between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: The modified Seldinger technique for percutaneous peritoneal dialysis catheter insertion reduced the short-term postoperative complications of catheter migration and dialysate leakage, with a comparable successful catheter insertion rate compared with the conventional Seldinger technique.

Prospective Study on Energy Expenditure in Patients With Severe Burns.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition therapy is recognized as one of the most significant treatment aspects for burn patients. However, data were limited regarding the actual nutrition practices in patients with severe burn injury. This study aims to explore the measured energy expenditure (MEE) changes in severe burn patients and to evaluate the precision of commonly used predictive formulas for estimating predictive energy expenditure (PEE) in burn patients. METHODS: A prospective multicenter trial was conducted in the intensive care units in the hospitals enrolling the severely burned patients. Data on MEE and PEE were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: Forty-three patients were enrolled from 3 hospitals. All the patients had severe burns. MEE was measured by metabolic cart, and the MEE on the seventh day after severe burns was as high as 65 kcal/kg, which was 267% of the basal metabolic rate. The presence of hypermetabolism was sustained throughout the 21-day afterburn and decreased gradually to 34 kcal/kg thereafter until 4 weeks after injury. Wound percentage after skin-grafting therapy, time course of burn injury, the existence of severe sepsis, and blood infection were significantly associated with higher MEE. Compared with PEE and MEE, Toronto formula could estimate patients' energy requirements with more accuracy; Curreri and Pennisi formula both significantly overestimated the patient's energy expenditure, whereas underestimation occurred with the Harris-Benedict formula. CONCLUSIONS: Severe burn patients were hypermetabolic at the early stage and sustained this status over a long time. The Toronto formula was the unbiased method to predict energy expenditure.

Quantitative differences between common occupational health risk assessment models.

OBJECTIVES: Methodological studies on occupational health risk assessment (OHRA) models are rarely reported. This study aimed to explore the quantitative differences between common OHRA models. METHODS: The risk ratios (RRs) in five typical industries (leather, wooden furniture manufacturing, printing and dyeing, printing, and garment manufacturing) were investigated using six OHRA models, namely the models from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Singapore, the Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH), Australia, Romania, and International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM). The consistency, correlation, and reliability were evaluated for quantitative differences between the models. RESULTS: The order of the RRs obtained from the EPA, Singaporean, and COSHH models in the five industries was consistent with the order of the inherent risk levels in those industries. The EPA and Singaporean models could effectively distinguish the inherent risk levels of risk factors like xylene and ethyl acetate. The order of RR between the six models was: RR EPA  > RR COSHH  > RR Singaporean  > RR Australian  > RR Romanian and RR ICMM (P < .05). The EPA model had the weakest correlations with other models. The Singaporean model had positive correlations in RRs with the other models (P＜0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The EPA and Singaporean models exhibited good reliability since they could distinguish the inherent risk of the industry or risk factor and tended to get higher risk levels. The EPA model was independent and the Singaporean model had a good correlation with other models. More studies on OHRA methodology are needed.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria rapid diagnostic test in the elimination setting.

BACKGROUND: As more and more countries approaching the goal of malaria elimination, malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) was recomendated to be a diagnostic strategy to achieve and maintain the statute of malaria free, as it's less requirments on equipment and experitise than microscopic examination. But there are very few economic evaluations to confirm whether RDT was cost-effective in the setting of malaria elimination. This research aimed to offer evidence for helping decision making on malaria diagnosis strategy. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to compare RDT with microscopy examination for malaria diagnosis, by using a decision tree model. There were three strategies of malaria diagnostic testing evaluated in the model, 1) microscopy, 2) RDT, 3) RDT followed by microscopy. The effect indicator was defined as the number of malaria cases treated appropriately. Based on the joint perspective of health sector and patient, costs data were collected from hospital information systems, key informant interviews, and patient surveys. Data collection was conducted in Jiangsu from September 2018 to January 2019. Epidemiological data were obtained from local malaria surveillance reports. A hypothetical cohort of 300 000 febrile patients were simulated to calculate the total cost and effect of each strategy. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to test the robustness of the result. RESULTS: The results showed that RDT strategy was the most effective (245 cases) but also the most costly (United States Dollar [USD] 4.47 million) compared to using microscopy alone (238 cases, USD 3.63 million), and RDT followed by microscopy (221 cases, USD 2.75 million). There was no strategy dominated. One-way sensitivity analysis reflected that the result was sensitive to the change in labor cost and two-way sensitivity analysis indicated that the result was not sensitive to the proportion of falciparum malaria. The result of Monte Carlo simulation showed that RDT strategy had higher effects and higher cost than other strategies with a high probability. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to microscopy and RDT followed by microscopy, RDT strategy had higher effects and higher cost in the setting of malaria elimination.

ISO/TC 249 platform promotes the development of international standardization and trade for the Chinese medicines industry.

The trade of Chinese medicines (CMs) has developed rapidly worldwide. There is an urgent need for international standards of CMs in international trade. A newly established technical committee TC249 in the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) provides a platform for developing the international standards of traditional Chinese medicine. This article introduces the overview and development strategy of the international standardization of CMs. A quality assurance system for the entire industrial chain was well designed in the fields of seedlings, medicinal materials, and manufactured products. The general standards, testing method standards, and standards for single herbal medicines meet the urgent needs of the market and should be developed with high priority to promote the international trade of CMs and guarantee the quality and safety of clinical use. This article also introduces the significance, classification, and procedures for developing international standards of CMs and helps us better understand the international standardization work of CMs.

Cost-effectiveness of Oral Regimens for Adolescents With Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral regimes have been approved for treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in adolescents due to their superior effectiveness and safety. However, its economic outcome is still unclear in this population. The current analysis investigates the cost-effectiveness of novel oral regimens compared with that of pegylated interferon α with ribavirin (PR) therapies in adolescents in the context of the United States and China. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to measure the economic and health outcomes of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LS) for genotypes 1 and 4, sofosbuvir/ribavirin (SR) for genotype 2, and ledipasvir/sofosbuvir/ribavirin (LSR) for genotype 3 HCV infection compared with the outcomes of PR treatment. Clinical costs and utility inputs were gathered from published sources. Lifetime discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were measured. The uncertainty was facilitated by 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In the United States, the ICERs of LS strategy were $14,699 and $14,946/QALY for genotypes 1 and 4 HCV infection, respectively; the ICER of SR strategy for genotype 2 was $42,472/QALY; and the ICER of LSR for genotype 3 was $49,409/QALY in comparison with the PR strategy. In Chinese adolescents, LS for genotypes 1 and 4, SR for genotype 2, and LSR for genotype 3 were the dominant alternatives to the PR strategy. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Novel oral regimes for adolescents with HCV infection are likely to be cost-effective in the context of the United States and China.

Cost-effectiveness of omalizumab for the treatment of inadequately controlled severe allergic asthma in Chinese children.

Objective: The addition of omalizumab to standard therapy has proven to be efficacious in children with severe allergic asthma. The goal of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of adding omalizumab to standard treatment for asthma in Chinese pediatric patients.Methods: A Markov model was constructed to project the health and economic outcomes in pediatric patients with severe allergic asthma. Model inputs were obtained from the literature. Cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were measured over a five-year time horizon. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.Results: For the base-case analysis, the addition of omalizumab to standard therapy yielded an incremental cost of $49,047 for 0.232 incremental QALY, led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $211,217/QALY. Sensitivity analyses were robust for these results.Conclusions: This study found that the addition of omalizumab is not a cost-effective strategy compared with standard therapy for children with severe allergic asthma in China due to its high cost.

Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score as immune-nutritional predictor of outcomes in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score was designed to assess the immune-nutritional status in patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of the CONUT score at the commencement of peritoneal dialysis (PD) for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and technique failure. METHODS: This is a STROBE-compliant, retrospective, observational, single center study. A total of 252 patients with end stage renal disease initially undergoing PD were enrolled in the study. Baseline data were collected from The Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University Peritoneal Dialysis database. The primary outcome during follow-up was all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes were CVD and technique failure. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate the association between confounding factors and outcomes. The area under the curve represented the test discriminative power of CONUT score and relevant clinical parameters. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to compare the outcomes of the patients according to the cut-off CONUT score. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 1.9 years, 35 patients (13.9%) died, 38 (15.1%) experienced CVD events, 58 (23.0%) experienced technique failure. The high CONUT group (CONUT score > 3) had significantly higher all-cause mortality (p = 0.02), CVD prevalence (p < 0.01), and technique failure rates (p < 0.01) than the low CONUT group (CONUT score ≤ 3). The CONUT score was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.565; 95% CI: 1.305-1.876; p < 0.001), CVD (HR: 1.346; 95% CI: 1.136-1.594; p = 0.001), and technique failure (HR: 1.144; 95% CI: 1.006-1.302; p = 0.041). CONCLUSION: The CONUT score is a straightforward and inexpensive indicator to evaluate the immune-nutritional status; it could be a reliable prognostic marker of all-cause mortality, CVD, and technique failure risk in patients undergoing PD.

Hospitalization costs due to healthcare-associated infections: An analysis of propensity score matching.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, diagnosis-related group-based prospective payment system (DRG-PPS) was implemented nationwide by China that did not fully consider the additional costs caused by healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). HAIs can increase hospitalization costs, but only a few studies have been conducted in China. We aimed to assess the additional costs caused by HAIs. METHODS: A retrospective matched case-control (1:1) study was performed in one of the largest tertiary hospitals in Sichuan Province, China. A multiple linear regression was used to identify confounding factors, and the propensity score matching (PSM) method was used to balance confounding factors between cases and controls. On this basis, we estimated the additional costs caused by HAIs. RESULTS: Of the 109,294 inpatients observed, 1912 had HAI. After the PSM method was implemented, 1686 cases were successfully matched. Median hospitalization costs were €5613.03 for patients with HAIs and €3414.83 for patients without HAIs (P < 0.001), resulting in an absolute difference of €2198.19. With the exception of pathological diagnosis costs, surgical treatment costs and disposable medical material costs for surgery, all other types of costs for the cases with HAIs were larger. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HAIs incurred greater hospitalization costs than non-HAI patients, which warrants closer attention if we are to reform the payment method of medical insurance in China.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria rapid diagnostic tests: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) can effectively manage malaria cases and reduce excess costs brought by misdiagnosis. However, few studies have evaluated the economic value of this technology. The purpose of this study is to systematically review the economic value of RDT in malaria diagnosis. MAIN TEXT: A detailed search strategy was developed to identify published economic evaluations that provide evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of malaria RDT. Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Biosis Previews, Web of Science and Cochrane Library were searched from Jan 2007 to July 2018. Two researchers screened studies independently based on pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist was applied to evaluate the quality of the studies. Then cost and effectiveness data were extracted and summarized in a narrative way. Fifteen economic evaluations of RDT compared to other diagnostic methods were identified. The overall quality of studies varied greatly but most of them were scored to be of high or moderate quality. Ten of the fifteen studies reported that RDT was likely to be a cost-effective approach compared to its comparisons, but the results could be influenced by the alternatives, study perspectives, malaria prevalence, and the types of RDT. CONCLUSIONS: Based on available evidence, RDT had the potential to be more cost-effective than either microscopy or presumptive diagnosis. Further research is also required to draw a more robust conclusion.

Atomic force microscopy technique used for assessment of the anti-arthritic effect of licochalcone A via suppressing NF-κB activation.

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is appropriately applied to the examination of hard surfaces and soft samples with extremely high resolution and ultrasensitive force, which cannot be obtained by other imaging techniques, including optical and electron microscopy. In the current study, AFM was employed to evaluate the anti-arthritic effect of licochalcone A (LCA), a flavonoid isolated from the root of Chinese medicinal herb Glycyrrhiza inflate, on rheumatoid arthritis synovial fibroblasts (RASFs) at the nanoscale for the first time. The morphology, ultrastructure and stiffness of RASFs was modified by LCA as determined by AFM, suggesting that LCA most likely exerts an anti-arthritic effect based on the key role of RASFs in the progression of RA. Further studies showed that the inhibitory effect of LCA on IκBα phosphorylation and degradation as well as on p65 nuclear translocation and phosphorylation contributed to altering the morphology, ultrastructure and stiffness of the RASF membrane. Interestingly, IKKß phosphorylation was not detectable in RASFs, indicating that LCA altered the morphology, ultrastructure and stiffness of the RASF membrane by inhibiting NF-κB activation independent of IKKß phosphorylation. Antigen-induced arthritis (AIA) was established in Sprague Dawley (SD) rats to validate the anti-arthritic effect of LCA, and LCA significantly decreased both the arthritis scores and paw swelling in the AIA rats, suggesting that LCA inhibits the progression and development of arthritis in vivo. Collectively, AFM provides evidence at the nanoscale to predict the anti-arthritic effect of drugs on RASFs, and LCA should be further investigated as a candidate agent for the treatment of arthritis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccinations in Chinese infants.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) compared to a no vaccination strategy in Chinese infants. METHODS: A Markov process model was developed to examine the outcomes of PCV-13 against a no vaccination strategy using data and assumptions adapted for relevance to China. Outcomes over a lifetime horizon are presented. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the uncertainty. RESULTS: Compared to no vaccination, a PCV-13 vaccination program would provide a gain of 0.009 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per subject. From the health care and societal perspectives, the incremental costs per QALY were $20,709 and 18,483, respectively. When herd effect was included, the cost effectiveness of the PCV-13 vaccination strategy was notably improved. The lower price of PCV-13 will improve the cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: The PCV-13 vaccination is likely to be cost-effective at the current Chinese prices and ceiling threshold ($8,382).

An Algorithm for Generating Individualized Treatment Decision Trees and Random Forests.

With new treatments and novel technology available, precision medicine has become a key topic in the new era of healthcare. Traditional statistical methods for precision medicine focus on subgroup discovery through identifying interactions between a few markers and treatment regimes. However, given the large scale and high dimensionality of modern data sets, it is difficult to detect the interactions between treatment and high dimensional covariates. Recently, novel approaches have emerged that seek to directly estimate individualized treatment rules (ITR) via maximizing the expected clinical reward by using, for example, support vector machines (SVM) or decision trees. The latter enjoys great popularity in clinical practice due to its interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new reward function and a novel decision tree algorithm to directly maximize rewards. We further improve a single tree decision rule by an ensemble decision tree algorithm, ITR random forests. Our final decision rule is an average over single decision trees and it is a soft probability rather than a hard choice. Depending on how strong the treatment recommendation is, physicians can make decisions based on our model along with their own judgment and experience. Performance of ITR forest and tree methods is assessed through simulations along with applications to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of 1385 patients with diabetes and an EMR cohort of 5177 patients with diabetes. ITR forest and tree methods are implemented using statistical software R (https://github.com/kdoub5ha/ITR.Forest).