Polygenic risk-stratified screening for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in high-risk endemic areas of China: a cost-effectiveness study.

Background: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has an extremely high incidence rate in Southern China, resulting in a severe disease burden for the local population. Current EBV serologic screening is limited by false positives, and there is opportunity to integrate polygenic risk scores for personalized screening which may enhance cost-effectiveness and resource utilization. Methods: A Markov model was developed based on epidemiological and genetic data specific to endemic areas of China, and further compared polygenic risk-stratified screening [subjects with a 10-year absolute risk (AR) greater than a threshold risk underwent EBV serological screening] to age-based screening (EBV serological screening for all subjects). For each initial screening age (30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, and 65-69 years), a modeled cohort of 100,000 participants was screened until age 69, and then followed until age 79. Results: Among subjects aged 30 to 54 years, polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were more cost-effective than age-based screening strategies, and almost comprised the cost-effectiveness efficiency frontier. For men, screening strategies with a 1-year frequency and a 10-year absolute risk (AR) threshold of 0.7% or higher were cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below the willingness to pay (¥203,810, twice the local per capita GDP). Specifically, the strategies with a 10-year AR threshold of 0.7% or 0.8% are the most cost-effective strategies, with an ICER ranging from ¥159,752 to ¥201,738 compared to lower-cost non-dominated strategies on the cost-effectiveness frontiers. The optimal strategies have a higher probability (29.4-35.8%) of being cost-effective compared to other strategies on the frontier. Additionally, they reduce the need for nasopharyngoscopies by 5.1-27.7% compared to optimal age-based strategies. Likewise, for women aged 30-54 years, the optimal strategy with a 0.3% threshold showed similar results. Among subjects aged 55 to 69 years, age-based screening strategies were more cost-effective for men, while no screening may be preferred for women. Conclusion: Our economic evaluation found that the polygenic risk-stratified screening could improve the cost-effectiveness among individuals aged 30-54, providing valuable guidance for NPC prevention and control policies in endemic areas of China.

Do Quality-Adjusted Life-Years Discriminate Against the Elderly? An Empirical Analysis of Published Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.

OBJECTIVES: Critics of quality-adjusted life-years argue that it discriminates against older individuals. However, little empirical evidence has been produced to inform this debate. This study aimed to compare published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) on patients aged ≥65 years and those aged <65 years. METHODS: We used the Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry to identify CEAs published in MEDLINE between 1976 and 2021. Eligible CEAs were categorized according to age (≥65 years vs <65 years). The distributions of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were compared between the age groups. We used logistic regression to assess the association between age groups and the cost-effectiveness conclusion adjusted for confounding factors. We conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the impact of mixed age and age-unknown groups and all ICERs from the same CEAs. Subgroup analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: A total of 4445 CEAs categorized according to age <65 years (n = 3784) and age ≥65 years (n = 661) were included in the primary analysis. The distributions of ICERs and the likelihood of concluding that the intervention was cost-effective were similar between the 2 age groups. Adjusted odds ratios ranged from 1.132 (95% CI 0.930-1.377) to 1.248 (95% CI 0.970-1.606) (odds ratio >1 indicating that CEAs for age ≥65 years were more likely to conclude the intervention was cost-effective than those for age <65 years). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses found similar results. CONCLUSION: Our analysis found no systematic differences in published ICERs using quality-adjusted life-years between CEAs for individuals aged ≥65 years and those for individuals aged <65 years.

Health-Related Quality of Life and Economic Burden Among Hospitalized Children with Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: A Multiregional Study in China.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease with high morbidity and mortality rates among children under 5 years old. This study aimed to explore the health-related quality of life (HRQOL), economic burden, and related influencing factors among Chinese HFMD patients. METHODS: From January to October 2019, a longitudinal cohort study of 296 hospitalized patients (≤ 5 years old) with HFMD and their guardians was conducted using the proxy version of the 5-level EQ-5D-Y (EQ-5D-Y-5L, Y-5L) in face-to-face interviews in Shanghai, Zhengzhou, and Kunming, representing three regions with different economic development levels. Multiple linear regression was used to explore the factors associated with HRQOL and costs. RESULTS: The mean Y-5L health utility score (HUS) (standard deviation, SD), and visual analogue scale (VAS) score (SD) were 0.730 (0.140) and 60.33 (16.52) at admission and increased to 0.920 (0.120) and 89.95 (11.88) at discharge, respectively. The children from Shanghai had the lowest HUSs at admission and had the best health improvement. The mean hospitalization cost and total cost were 4037 CNY and 5157 CNY, respectively. The children from Shanghai had the highest hospitalization cost (4559 CNY) and total cost (5491 CNY). Multiple regression analysis suggested that medical insurance status, type of employment, residence type, and religious status were significantly associated with the baseline HUS and improvement in the HUS after treatment. Region, loss of work time, and length of stay had a significant impact on the hospitalization cost and total cost. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that HFMD could lead to poor HRQOL and the economic burden varies in different regions in China. Many pediatric patients still have physical or mental health problems shortly after treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of endovascular thrombectomy with alteplase versus endovascular thrombectomy alone for acute ischemic stroke secondary to large vessel occlusion.

BACKGROUND: Recent randomized trials have suggested that endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) alone may provide similar functional outcomes as the current standard of care, EVT combined with intravenous alteplase treatment, for acute ischemic stroke secondary to large vessel occlusion. We conducted an economic evaluation of these 2 therapeutic options. METHODS: We constructed a decision analytic model with a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients to assess the cost-effectiveness of EVT with intravenous alteplase treatment versus EVT alone for acute ischemic stroke secondary to large vessel occlusion from both the societal and public health care payer perspectives. We used studies and data published in 2009-2021 for model inputs, and acquired cost data for Canada and China, representing high- and middle-income countries, respectively. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using a lifetime horizon and accounted for uncertainty using 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. All costs are reported in 2021 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: In Canada, the difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained between EVT with alteplase and EVT alone was 0.10 from both the societal and health care payer perspectives. The difference in cost was $2847 from a societal perspective and $2767 from the payer perspective. In China, the difference in QALYs gained was 0.07 from both perspectives, and the difference in cost was $1550 from the societal perspective and $1607 from the payer perspective. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the distributions of modified Rankin Scale scores at 90 days after stroke were the most influential factor on ICERs. For Canada, compared to EVT alone, the probability that EVT with alteplase would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per QALY gained was 58.7% from a societal perspective and 58.4% from a payer perspective. The corresponding values for at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $47 185 (3 times the Chinese gross domestic product per capita in 2021) were 65.2% and 67.4%. INTERPRETATION: For patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion eligible for immediate treatment with both EVT alone and EVT with intravenous alteplase treatment, it is uncertain whether EVT with alteplase is cost-effective compared to EVT alone in Canada and China.

The impact of government subsidy and weather on environmentally sustainable investment decision for agricultural supply chain.

This paper studies the environmentally sustainable investment of an agricultural supply chain composed of a farmer and a company, under three subsidy policies which are the non-subsidy policy, the fixed subsidy policy, and the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) subsidy policy. Then, we analyse the impact of different subsidy policy and adverse weather on the costs of the government and profits of the farmer and the company. By comparing with the non-subsidy policy, we find that both the fixed subsidy policy and the ARC policy encourage the farmer to improve the environmentally sustainable investment level and increase the profit of the farmer and the company. We also find that both the fixed subsidy policy and the ARC subsidy policy lead to an increase in government spending. Our results show that the ARC subsidy policy has a significate advantage in encouraging the farmer's environmentally sustainable investment if the adverse weather is relatively serious, comparing with the fixed subsidy policy. In turn, our results also show that the ARC subsidy policy is more beneficial for both the farmer and the company than the fixed subsidy policy if the adverse weather is relatively serious, which then leads to a higher expenditure of the government. Therefore, our conclusion serves as a theoretical basis for governments to formulate agricultural subsidy policies and promote sustainable development of the agricultural environment.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of niraparib maintenance therapy in Chinese patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of niraparib versus routine surveillance as maintenance therapy for patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer in China. METHOD: A three-state partitioned survival model that adopted a lifetime horizon with a 4-week cycle length was developed. Efficacy data were derived from the NORA study. Cost and utility data were obtained from published studies and online databases. The cost and health outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 5%. In this analysis, the primary outcomes included quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds were set at 1 to 3 times the gross domestic product per capita of China in 2022 ($12,741 to $38,233/QALY). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to verify the robustness of the model results. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, niraparib was not found to be cost-effective, with an ICER of $42,888/QALY compared with routine surveillance at the WTP thresholds. One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses indicated that the ICER value was most sensitive to the cost of subsequent treatment in placebo group. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that at the WTP thresholds, the probability of niraparib being cost-effective was 2.9% to 50.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Niraparib improves the survival benefit of platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer patients. However, it seems to be less cost-effective, as it has higher costs than routine surveillance at the WTP thresholds. Reasonable dose reduction according to the patient's actual situation or lowering the price of niraparib can improve its cost-effectiveness.

Sponsorship bias in oncology cost effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) has been increasingly used to inform cancer treatment coverage policy making worldwide. The primary objective of this study was to assess the association between industry sponsorship and CEA results in oncology. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: All CEAs in oncology used incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) as health effect identified from the Tufts CEA Registry since 1976 was analyzed. Descriptive analyses were performed to present and compare the characteristics of CEA funded by industry and non-industry. Robust logistic regression was performed to assess the relationship between the industry sponsorship and cost effective conclusion over a wide range of threshold values. RESULTS: A total of 1537 CEAs in oncology published from 1976 to 2021 were included. There were 387 (25.2%) with the industry sponsorship. CEAs sponsored by the industry were more likely to report ICERs below $50,000/QALY (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 1.91, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.45-2.51, P < 0.001), $100,000/QALY (2.74, 1.98-3.79, P < 0.001), and $150,000/QALY (3.53, 2.37-5.27, P < 0.001) than studies without industry sponsorship. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that there has been a significant sponsorship bias in CEAs in oncology. This bias could have a profound implication on drug pricing and coverage policy making.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of recombinant factor IX Fc fusion protein compared with recombinant factor IX for the treatment of moderate-severe to severe hemophilia B in China.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of recombinant factor IX Fc fusion protein (rFIXFc) and recombinant factor IX (rFIX) for the treatment of hemophilia B (HB) in China. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model including three health states: alive, requiring surgery, and dead. This model estimated the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of prophylaxis in childhood, followed by on-demand treatment in adulthood for moderate-severe to severe HB patients from China's healthcare system perspective. Efficacy data derived from pivotal clinical trials, clinical guideline recommendations, and expert consultation were applied to two scenarios (full dose and low dose). One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were performed to assess the robustness of the model. OUTCOMES: Lifetime cost, QALYs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were calculated, and the results were compared with willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of one to three times the gross domestic product per capita of China in 2021 ($12,551-$37,653). RESULTS: RFIXFc was associated with lower cost and more QALYs than rFIX in both scenarios, which suggested that it is a dominant strategy (more effective and cheaper) for moderate-severe to severe HB in China. In the full-dose scenario, rFIXFc saved more money and yielded more QALYs than in the low-dose scenario (low doses are the typical clinical reality in China). PSA demonstrated that rFIXFc had an over 90% probability of being cost-effective with full-dose and low-dose treatment at WTP thresholds of $12,551-$37,653. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with rFIX, rFIXFc appears to be a cost-effective option for the lifetime management of moderate-severe to severe HB patients in China.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sintilimab plus bevacizumab biosimilar compared with lenvatinib as the first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitors, including sintilimab, have significantly prolonged the overall survival time of patients with unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, the cost-effectiveness of sintilimab is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of sintilimab plus bevacizumab biosimilar compared with lenvatinib as first-line treatment in patients with unresectable or metastatic HCC. METHODS: A lifetime partitioned survival model was developed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of sintilimab plus bevacizumab biosimilar vs. lenvatinib for advanced HCC from a Chinese healthcare system perspective. The clinical and safety data were derived from two recent randomized clinical trials, the ORIENT-32 and REFLECT studies. Utility data were obtained from previous studies. Long-term direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were predicted. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to verify the robustness of the model. RESULTS: Compared with lenvatinib, combination therapy with sintilimab and bevacizumab biosimilar yielded an additional 0.493 QALYs at a higher cost ($33,102 vs. $21,037) (2021 US dollars). This resulted in a deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $24,462 per QALY in the base-case analysis. The ICERs were sensitive to the utility of post-progression and the cost of bevacizumab biosimilar. A lower ICER was estimated when the dose of bevacizumab biosimilar decreased from 15 mg to 7.5 mg per kilogram in the scenario analysis. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probability of being cost-effective for sintilimab treatment at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of one ($12,516) and three times the gross domestic product per capita in China ($37,547) were 11.6% and 88.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Sintilimab plus bevacizumab biosimilar is likely to be a cost-effective treatment option as a first-line treatment for unresectable or metastatic HCC in China when WTP threshold is over $23,650.

Multi-assessment of critical steno-occlusive middle cerebral arteries: transcranial Doppler combined with magnetic resonance angiography.

Background: Accurate assessment of a stenotic or occluded middle cerebral artery (MCA) is essential before making optimal therapeutic decisions. However, complete occlusion is not always easy to determine for both magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and neurologists. We aimed to study noninvasive technology using transcranial Doppler (TCD) combined with MRA to assess severe stenosis and occlusion of the MCA. Methods: We studied consecutive patients with severe steno-occlusive MCA by digital subtraction angiography from Oct. 2011 to Mar. 2020 in our stroke center. Hemodynamic measurements of TCD, including peak velocity (PSV), mean flow velocity (MFV) and pulse index (PI), were recorded specifically at the steno-occlusive site by MRA. Results: A total of 152 MCAs of 148 patients were enrolled (60.0 ± 11.5 y, 107 male), including 82 severe stenotic MCAs and 70 occluded MCAs (Group S & Group O) by DSA. There were 86/152 (57%) MCAs showing discontinuity in MRA, which was significantly distributed more in Group O than in Group S (84% vs. 33%, P < 0.001). The PSV and MFV in Group S were greater (264 ± 78 cm/s vs. 33 ± 34 cm/s and 182 ± 61 cm/s vs. 21 ± 23 cm/s, respectively, P < 0.001), while the PI in Group O was greater (0.98 ± 0.49 vs. 0.72 ± 0.17, P < 0.001). PSV was positively correlated with severe MCA stenosis (ß = 0.036, P < 0.001, OR = 0.965, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.952-0.978). In severe steno-occlusive MCA, using PSV and MFV to detect MCA severe stenosis yielded areas under the curve of 0.983 (CI: 0.964-1.0) and 0.982 (CI: 0.962-1.0), respectively. The cutoff points of PSV ≥ 77 cm/s and MFV ≥ 51 cm/s both yielded an optimized sensitivity of 96.3% and specificity of 98.6%. Conclusion: The critical velocity at the steno-occlusive site is reliable for distinguishing between severe MCA stenosis and occlusion.

Industry sponsorship bias in cost effectiveness analysis: registry based analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between industry sponsorship (drug, medical device, and biotechnology companies) and cost effectiveness results in cost effectiveness analysis (CEA). DESIGN: Registry based analysis DATA SOURCE: The Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry was used to identify all CEAs published in Medline between 1976 and 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: CEAs that reported incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) using quality adjusted life year and provided sufficient information about the magnitude or location of the ICER. METHODS: Descriptive analyses were used to describe and compare the characteristics of CEAs with and without industry sponsorship. Logistic regression was used to identify the association between industry sponsorship and the cost effective conclusion using selected threshold values ($50 000 (£40 511; €47 405), $100 000, and $150 000). Robust linear regression was used to assess the association between industry sponsorship and the magnitude of ICER. All regression analyses were adjusted for disease and study design characteristics. RESULTS: 8192 CEAs were eligible and included in the analysis, with 2437 (29.7%) sponsored by industry. Industry sponsored CEAs were more likely to publish ICERs below $50 000 (adjusted odds ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.82 to 2.33), $100 000 (2.95, 2.52 to 3.44), and $150 000 (3.34, 2.80 to 3.99) than non-industry sponsored studies. Among 5877 CEAs that reported positive incremental costs and quality adjusted life years, ICERs from industry sponsored studies were 33% lower (95% confidence interval -40 to -26) than those from non-industry sponsored studies. CONCLUSIONS: Sponsorship bias in CEAs is significant, systemic, and present across a range of diseases and study designs. Use of CEAs conducted by independent bodies could provide payers with more ability to negotiate lower prices. This impartiality is especially important for countries that rely on published CEAs to inform policy making for insurance coverage because of limited capacity for independent economic analysis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of donafenib versus lenvatinib for first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Donafenib and lenvatinib are approved by China National Medical Products Administration and recommended as first-line treatment of Metastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of donafenib compared with lenvatinib for first-line treatment of advanced HCC in China. METHODS: A partitioned survival model consisting with three health states was developed to simulate lifetime development of advanced HCC from China healthcare payer's perspective. The lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), life-years (LYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. The efficacy data were obtained from ZGDH3 and REFLECT trials. The cost and health outcomes were discounted at a rate of 5%. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were carried out to explore the variation of model results. RESULTS: Compared with lenvatinib, donafenib incurred more costs of $1500.86 and had 0.139 QALYs gained, resulting in an ICER of $10,790.18/QALY. The probability of being cost-effective was 84.9% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of gross domestic product per capita in 2020 in China ($31,499.2/QALY). Sensitive and scenario analysis results were in line with base-case analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Donafenib appears to be a cost-effective strategy compared with lenvatinib for the first-line treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic HCC in China.

The Cost Effectiveness of Donafenib Compared With Sorafenib for the First-Line Treatment of Unresectable or Metastatic Hepatocellular Carcinoma in China.

Background: Recent clinical trials have demonstrated that donafenib has superior efficacy and safety compared with sorafenib in Chinese patients with unresectable or metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of donafenib compared with sorafenib for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic HCC in China. Methods: A three-state partitioned survival model was developed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing donafenib and sorafenib from a Chinese healthcare payer's perspective. The model adopted a lifetime horizon and a 4-week cycle length. Survival data were derived from the ZGDH3 study and fitted with standard parametric functions for extrapolation beyond the trial period. Cost data were obtained from the mean price of publicly listed online bids in 2021 and medical service prices across provinces in China. Utility data were obtained from previous literature. The cost and health outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 5%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) were carried out to verify the robustness of the model. Results: Compared with sorafenib, donafenib incurred a higher cost (US$22,330.23 vs. US$14,775.92) but yielded more quality-adjusted life years (1.045 vs. 0.861 QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for donafenib was US$41,081.52 per QALY gained (ICER = US$13,439.10/QALY). The PSA results indicated that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 3 times the GDP in China, the probability of donafenib being cost effective was 16.9%. The ICER (US$13,439.10/QALY) decreased when the branded price of sorafenib was used in the model. Conclusions: Donafenib is unlikely to be cost effective compared with sorafenib for the first-line treatment of unresectable or metastatic HCC in China. Reducing the price of donafenib can increase the possibility of it being cost effective in the future.

Economic Evaluation of Sintilimab Plus Bevacizumab Versus Sorafenib as a First-line Treatment for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sintilimab plus bevacizumab versus sorafenib as a first-line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China to provide economic evidence to inform health decision making. METHODS: We performed an economic evaluation from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system using a partitioned survival model with three mutually exclusive health states: progression free, post-progression, and death. Efficacy data were obtained from the ORIENT-32 clinical trial and extrapolated to the lifetime horizon. Cost and utility values were derived from published studies and online price databases. The primary outcomes of the model were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were carried out to verify the robustness of the model results. RESULTS: Compared with sorafenib, sintilimab plus bevacizumab incurred a higher lifetime cost ($33,766 vs. $23,294) and yielded more QALYs (1.428 vs. 0.928 QALYs). The ICER for sintilimab plus bevacizumab was $20,968/QALY and lower than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $33,592. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that ICER values were most sensitive to the subsequent treatment cost of the sorafenib group after progression and the price of bevacizumab. In the scenario analysis, the ICER was $4191/QALY when a 7.5 mg/kg dose of bevacizumab was applied in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with sorafenib, the sintilimab plus bevacizumab combination is likely to be a cost-effective option for patients with unresectable HCC in China.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vedolizumab Compared With Infliximab in Anti-TNF-α-Naïve Patients With Moderate-to-Severe Ulcerative Colitis in China.

Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of vedolizumab vs. infliximab in the treatment of anti-tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α)-naïve patients with moderate-to-severe active ulcerative colitis (UC) in China. Methods: The costs and effectiveness of vedolizumab and infliximab in the treatment of anti-TNF-α naïve patients with moderate-to-severe active UC were compared using a hybrid decision tree model and a Markov model. From the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system, this study simulated the lifetime health benefits [quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] and costs (USD) for patients with UC from the induction phase to the maintenance phase, with an annual discount rate of 5%. The clinical efficacy and transition probability data were based on a previously published network meta-analysis. The health utility, surgical risk, biologic drug discontinuation rate, and mortality were derived from previous literature and the Chinese statistical yearbook. The cost data were based on China's drug purchase and biding platform and the results of a survey sent to clinicians in 18 tertiary hospitals. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) were performed to validate the robustness of the models' assumptions and specific parameter estimates. Results: The results of the base-case analyses showed that compared with infliximab, vedolizumab led to a gain of 0.25 QALYs (9.56 vs. 9.31 QALYs) and was less expensive by $7,349 ($180,138 vs. 187,487), indicating that the use of vedolizumab was a dominant strategy. The results of one-way sensitivity analyses suggested that the annual discount rate and health-state costs had the greatest impact, but the results were otherwise consistent with those of the base-case analyses. The PSAs suggested that vedolizumab had a 98.6% probability of being effective at a threshold of 3 times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in China in 2020. Conclusion: Compared with infliximab, vedolizumab appears to be a more cost-effective option in the treatment of anti-TNF-α naïve adult patients with moderate-to-severe, active UC in China.

Economic Burden of Major Diseases in China in 2013.

Studies on the economic burden of disease (EBD) can estimate the social benefits of preventing or curing disease. The majority of studies focus on the economic burden of a single or regional disease; however, holistic or national research is rare in China. Estimating the national EBD can provide evidence for policy makers. We used the top-down method to assess the economic burden of 30 types of diseases between urban and rural areas in China. The two-step model was used to evaluate the direct economic burden of disease (DEBD), while the human capital method was used to assess the indirect economic burden of disease (IEBD). The total economic burden of 30 types of diseases in China was between $13.39 and 803.00 billion in 2013. The average total economic burden of disease (TEBD) in cities was $81.39 billion, while diseases in villages accounted for $50.26 billion. The range of direct and indirect EBD was $5.77-494.52 billion, and the range in urban areas was $0.61-20.34 billion. The direct and indirect EBD in rural areas accounted for $5.88-277.76 billion and $0.59-11.39 billion, respectively. There was a large difference between the economic burden of different diseases. The economic burden of urban diseases was more significant than the burden for the rural. The top five most economically burdensome diseases were myocardial infarction coronary artery bypass, acute myocardial infarction, cerebral hemorrhage, acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding and acute appendicitis.

A modifiable risk factors atlas of lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: There has been no study systematically assessing the causal effects of putative modifiable risk factors on lung cancer. In this study, we aimed to construct a modifiable risk factors atlas of lung cancer by using the two-sample Mendelian randomization framework. METHODS: We included 46 modifiable risk factors identified in previous studies. Traits with p-value smaller than 0.05 were considered as suggestive risk factors. While the Bonferroni corrected p-value for significant risk factors was set to be 8.33 × 10-4 . RESULTS: In this two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis, we found that higher socioeconomic status was significantly correlated with lower risk of lung cancer, including years of schooling, college or university degree, and household income. While cigarettes smoked per day, time spent watching TV, polyunsaturated fatty acids, docosapentaenoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, and arachidonic acid in blood were significantly associated with higher risk of lung cancer. Suggestive risk factors for lung cancer were found to be serum vitamin A1, copper in blood, docosahexaenoic acid in blood, and body fat percentage. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided the first Mendelian randomization assessment of the causality between previously reported risk factors and lung cancer risk. Several modifiable targets, concerning socioeconomic status, lifestyle, dietary, and obesity, should be taken into consideration for the development of primary prevention strategies for lung cancer.

Cost-Effectiveness of Vedolizumab in the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Crohn's Disease in China.

INTRODUCTION: To compare the cost-effectiveness of vedolizumab with that of conventional therapy in patients with moderate-to-severe active Crohn's disease (CD) in China. METHODS: A decision tree and Markov model were built to predict the lifetime cost and health outcomes in the induction phase and maintenance phase of vedolizumab treatment and conventional therapy (a combination of corticosteroids, immunosuppressants, and aminosalicylates) in adult patients with moderate-to-severe active CD from the perspective of China's healthcare system. Clinical efficacy and health utility were derived from the GEMINI 2 and GEMINI 3 trials and published literature. Costs were mainly obtained from clinical physician surveys in China and are presented in 2020 US dollars. Health outcomes (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) and costs were discounted at an annual rate of 5%. The incremental cost per QALY gained was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of the two treatments. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) were performed to test the robustness of the model. RESULTS: The model predicted more QALYs (9.92 vs 9.00 QALYs) and lower incurred costs ($288,284 vs $309,680) in vedolizumab than in conventional therapy in a mixed population (anti-TNF-naïve and anti-TNF-failure populations) over a lifetime horizon in the base-case analysis. Similar results were observed in the anti-TNF-naïve and anti-TNF-failure subgroups of patients with CD. One-way sensitivity analysis results suggested that health state cost was the most influential factor in the model. The PSA results supported the dominance of vedolizumab in the base-case analysis. CONCLUSION: Vedolizumab appears to be a cost-effective strategy option in the treatment of adult patients with moderate-to-severe active CD in China in both anti-TNF-naïve and anti-TNF-failure populations.

Using Published Health Utilities in Cost-Utility Analyses: Discrepancies and Issues in Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Health utilities are commonly used as quality weights to calculate quality-adjusted life years in cost-utility analysis (CUA). However, if published health utilities are not properly used, the credibility of CUA could be affected. OBJECTIVES: To identify discrepancies in using published health utilities in CUAs for cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: CVD CUAs in the Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry that reported health utilities were included in the analysis. References cited for health utilities in these CUAs were reviewed to identify the original health utility studies. The description and value of health utilities used in the CUA were compared with those reported in the original utility studies. Logistic regression was used to identify the factors that can predict the discrepancy. RESULTS: A total of 585 eligible CUAs published between 1977 and 2016 were identified and reviewed. Of these studies, 74.5% were published between 2007 and 2016. 442 CUAs that used a total of 2235 health utilities published in 203 original utility studies were included for the comparison. As compared with those utilities originally reported, only 596 (26.7%) health utilities had the same description and value, whereas 991 health utilities (44.3%) differed in both description and value. Of 1290 health utilities with a different description, 69.1% were due to different severity or disease. No explanation or justification was provided for 1171 (87.4%) of 1340 health utilities with different value. CONCLUSIONS: There are concerning discrepancies in using published health utilities for CVD CUAs. Given the important role health utilities play in CUAs, authors of CUAs should always refer to the original studies for health utilities and be transparent about how published health utilities are selected and incorporated into CUAs.

Spatial and vertical distribution, composition profiles, sources, and ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon residues in the sediments of an urban tributary: A case study of the Songgang River, Shenzhen, China.

In this study, the Songgang River (SR) was selected as a typical tributary that is heavily polluted by rapid urbanization and industrialization. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) distribution at five representative sampling sites from different urban functional areas was studied. The chemical and physical properties and spatial and vertical distribution of PAHs in sediments were investigated. PAH source identification and the ecological risks of the sediments were evaluated. The results suggested that the industrial zone and dense residential and commercial areas were the most contaminated areas of the SR, as the chemical and physical properties of total organic carbon content in sediments was the highest at the dense residential and commercial areas (0.1-4.5%); however, the acid volatile sulfide, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus contents were the highest in the industrial zone, with ranges of 700.0-1618.4 mg/kg dw, 22.4-3543.9 mg/kg dw, and 82.3-4550.7 mg/kg dw, respectively. The spatial distribution of residual PAHs in the sediment cores showed a wide variation among different urban functional areas, and the vertical characterization (0-300 cm) depicted a significant decreasing trend with depth and with an abrupt increase at 180 cm. The concentration of ∑16 PAHs ranged from 208.7 to 7709.8 ng/g dw, with the highest concentrations obtained in the industrial zone. The low molecular weight-PAHs (153-6720 ng/g dw) were predominant in the sediments. Furthermore, there were combined sources (biomass burning: 40.3%; fossil fuel combustion: 25.5%; mixed source: 21.5%; oil pollution: 12.7%) and a long term accumulation effect, with anthropogenic activities and industrial pollution as the major contributing sources. The concentrations of Nap, Acy, Ace, Flu, and Ant exceeded the lower limit of the sediment quality criteria, and higher toxic equivalent concentration values of the total carcinogenic PAHs were observed nearby the midstream of the SR, which may cause adverse biological effects and implies a need for regular monitoring.