RESUMO
This paper discusses the concentration characteristics of PM2.5, as well as its relationship with meteorological factors in autumn and winter (from September to the following February), from 2013 to 2018 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. The accuracy and uncertainty of the air quality forecast models NAQPMS(nested air quality prediction modeling system), CMAQ(community multiscale air quality modeling system), and CAMx (comprehensive air quality model with extensions) were analyzed based on the model-predicted and measured PM2.5 concentration in autumn and winter from 2015 to 2018. The accuracy of NAQPMS, CMAQ, and CAMx during typical heavy air pollution was also tested. Moreover, methods to improve the accuracy of the model forecast were discussed. The results showed that the mean concentrations of PM2.5 in the BTH region were 122, 98, 82, 99, and 65 µg·m-3 in the five autumn and winter periods, respectively. When the air quality index (AQI) exceeded 150 during each autumn and winter, it reached 229, 198, 210, 204, and 180 µg·m-3, respectively. There were 64 occurrences of heavy regional PM2.5 air pollution in autumn and winter from 2013 to 2018. The average duration was longest in the 2013 to 2014 period, and shortest in the 2017 to 2018 period. The peak concentration and average concentration of PM2.5 decreased year on year, except for the period from 2016 to 2017. In autumn and winter, PM2.5 concentration had a relatively close relationship with relative humidity, wind and sunshine duration, compared with a weak relationship with temperature and air pressure. Regional heavy air pollution always happened under the condition of low wind speed(less than 2 m·s-1),higher relative humidity(greater than 65%),and southwest and northeast wind direction. In addition, the heavy air pollution of PM2.5 in BTH in autumn and winter can be effectively forecasted by NAQPMS, CMAQ, and CAMx. The predicted and measured PM2.5 concentration showed a close relationship. The models performed well in forecasting Zhangjiakou, Chengde, and Qinhuangdao, but by contrast overestimated in Tangshan, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Beijing, and Tianjin. The uncertainty of emission sources, measured and predicted meteorological data, and the atmospheric chemical reaction mechanism may be the main reasons for the overestimate.
RESUMO
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the predominant risk factor for chronic hepatitis B (CHB), liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, genome-wide association studies have identified human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DP polymorphisms (rs3077 and rs9277535) as a new chronic HBV infection susceptibility locus. Since then, the relationship between HLA-DP polymorphisms and various outcomes of HBV infection has been reported. However, the results have been inconclusive. To derive a more precise estimation of the relationship between HLA-DP polymorphisms and various outcomes of HBV infection, a meta-analysis of 62,050 subjects from 29 case-control studies was performed. We found that rs3077 and rs9277535 in HLA-DP significantly decreased HBV infection risks and increased HBV clearance possibility in a dose-dependent manner. In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, study design and sample size, significant associations were found for these polymorphisms in almost all comparisons. Meanwhile, haplotype analyses of the two polymorphisms revealed a significant association between the combination of these alleles and HBV infection outcomes. However, no significant results were observed in HCC development. Our results further confirm that genetic variants in the HLA-DP locus are strongly associated with reduced HBV infection and increased the likelihood of spontaneous viral clearance.