The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on health equity and financial protection in low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: One in two patients developing tuberculosis (TB) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) faces catastrophic household costs. We assessed the potential financial risk protection from introducing novel TB vaccines, and how health and economic benefits would be distributed across income quintiles. METHODS: We modelled the impact of introducing TB vaccines meeting the World Health Organization preferred product characteristics in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the distribution of health gains, patient costs and household financial vulnerability following introduction of an infant vaccine and separately for an adolescent/adult vaccine, compared with a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. Patient-incurred direct and indirect costs of TB disease exceeding 20% of annual household income were defined as catastrophic. RESULTS: Over 2028-2050, the health gains resulting from vaccine introduction were greatest in lower income quintiles, with the poorest 2 quintiles in each country accounting for 56% of total LMIC TB cases averted. Over this period, the infant vaccine was estimated to avert US$5.9 (95% uncertainty interval: US$5.3-6.5) billion in patient-incurred total costs, and the adolescent/adult vaccine was estimated to avert US$38.9 (US$36.6-41.5) billion. Additionally, 3.7 (3.3-4.1) million fewer households were projected to face catastrophic costs with the infant vaccine and 22.9 (21.4-24.5) million with the adolescent/adult vaccine, with 66% of gains accruing in the poorest 2 income quintiles. CONCLUSION: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would reduce income-based inequalities in the health and household economic outcomes of TB in LMICs.

Scaling Up TB Screening and TB Preventive Treatment Globally: Key Actions and Healthcare Service Costs.

The 2018 United Nations High-Level Meeting on Tuberculosis (UNHLM) set targets for case detection and TB preventive treatment (TPT) by 2022. However, by the start of 2022, about 13.7 million TB patients still needed to be detected and treated, and 21.8 million household contacts needed to be given TPT globally. To inform future target setting, we examined how the 2018 UNHLM targets could have been achieved using WHO-recommended interventions for TB detection and TPT in 33 high-TB burden countries in the final year of the period covered by the UNHLM targets. We used OneHealth-TIME model outputs combined with the unit cost of interventions to derive the total costs of health services. Our model estimated that, in order to achieve UNHLM targets, >45 million people attending health facilities with symptoms would have needed to be evaluated for TB. An additional 23.1 million people with HIV, 19.4 million household TB contacts, and 303 million individuals from high-risk groups would have required systematic screening for TB. The estimated total costs amounted to ~USD 6.7 billion, of which ~15% was required for passive case finding, ~10% for screening people with HIV, ~4% for screening household contacts, ~65% for screening other risk groups, and ~6% for providing TPT to household contacts. Significant mobilization of additional domestic and international investments in TB healthcare services will be needed to reach such targets in the future.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a "no-new-vaccine" counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. CONCLUSIONS: TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.

Advances in clinical trial design: Weaving tomorrow's TB treatments.

Christian Lienhardt and co-authors discuss the conclusions of the PLOS Medicine Collection on advances in clinical trial design for development of new tuberculosis treatments.

Rapid molecular TB diagnosis: evidence, policy making and global implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF.

If tuberculosis (TB) is to be eliminated as a global health problem in the foreseeable future, improved detection of patients, earlier diagnosis and timely identification of rifampicin resistance will be critical. New diagnostics released in recent years have improved this perspective but they require investments in laboratory infrastructure, biosafety and staff specialisation beyond the means of many resource-constrained settings where most patients live. Xpert MTB/RIF, a new assay employing automated nucleic acid amplification to detect Mycobacterium tuberculosis, as well as mutations that confer rifampicin resistance, holds the promise to largely overcome these operational challenges. In this article we position Xpert MTB/RIF in today's TB diagnostic landscape and describe its additional potential as an adjunct to surveillance and surveys, taking into account considerations of pricing and ethics. In what could serve as a model for the future formulation of new policy on diagnostics, we trace the unique process by which the World Health Organization consulted international expertise and systematically assessed published evidence and freshly emerging experience from the field ahead of its endorsement of the Xpert MTB/RIF technology in 2010, summarise subsequent research findings and guidance on who to test and how, and provide perspectives on scaling up the new technology.

Surveillance of anti-tuberculosis drug resistance in the world: an updated analysis, 2007-2010.

OBJECTIVE: To present a global update of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) and explore trends in 1994-2010. METHODS: Data on drug resistance among new and previously treated TB patients, as reported by countries to the World Health Organization, were analysed. Such data are collected through surveys of a representative sample of TB patients or surveillance systems based on routine drug susceptibility testing. Associations between multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and sex were explored through logistic regression. FINDINGS: In 2007-2010, 80 countries and 8 territories reported surveillance data. MDR-TB among new and previously treated cases was highest in the Russian Federation (Murmansk oblast, 28.9%) and the Republic of Moldova (65.1%), respectively. In three former Soviet Union countries and South Africa, more than 10% of the cases of MDR-TB were extensively drug-resistant. Globally, in 1994 to 2010 multidrug resistance was observed in 3.4% (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.9-5.0) of all new TB cases and in 19.8% (95% CI: 14.4-25.1) of previously treated TB cases. No overall associations between MDR-TB and HIV infection (odds ratio, OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 0.7-3.0) or sex (OR: 1.1; 95% CI: 0.8-1.4) were found. Between 1994 and 2010, MDR-TB rates in the general population increased in Botswana, Peru, the Republic of Korea and declined in Estonia, Latvia and the United States of America. CONCLUSION: The highest global rates of MDR-TB ever reported were documented in 2009 and 2010. Trends in MDR-TB are still unclear in most settings. Better surveillance or survey data are required, especially from Africa and India.

Challenges in estimating the total burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis.

The International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease/World Health Organization Global Project on Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Surveillance recently released the fourth global survey, which documents the highest burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) yet reported. The best estimate of the number of new cases of multidrug-resistant disease occurring in 2006 is close to half a million and the recent recognition of extensively drug-resistant TB underscores the need for expanded surveillance, especially in areas in which TB control programs have been compromised by an escalating burden of TB and HIV. We review current methods used for drug resistance surveillance and describe methodologic obstacles for estimating the true extent of the problem, particularly in settings where HIV/TB coinfection is common or where a substantial portion of TB cases are treated in the private sector. We highlight practical challenges to the validity of surveillance studies and discuss how additional investment in laboratory capacity, diagnostic technologies, and sentinel site surveillance can improve our ability to estimate of the burden of drug-resistant TB.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of PPM-DOTS for tuberculosis control: evidence from India.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost and cost-effectiveness of the Public-Private Mix DOTS (PPM-DOTS) strategy for tuberculosis (TB) control in India. METHODS: We collected data on the costs and effects of pilot PPM-DOTS projects in Delhi and Hyderabad using documentary data and interviews. The cost of PPM-DOTS was compared with public sector DOTS (i.e. DOTS delivered through public sector facilities only) and non-DOTS treatment in the private sector. Costs for 2002 in US$ were assessed for the public sector, private practitioners, and patients/attendants. Effectiveness was measured as the number of cases successfully treated. FINDINGS: The average cost per patient treated was US$ 111-123 for PPM-DOTS and public sector DOTS, and US$ 111-172 for non-DOTS treatment in the private sector. From the public sector's perspective, the cost per patient treated was lower in PPM-DOTS projects than in public sector DOTS programmes (US$ 24-33 versus US$ 63). DOTS implementation in either the public or private sectors improved treatment outcomes and substantially lowered costs incurred by patients and their attendants, compared to non-DOTS treatment in the private sector (US$ 50-60 for DOTS compared to over US$ 100 for non-DOTS). The average cost-effectiveness of PPM-DOTS and public sector DOTS was similar, at US$ 120-140 per patient successfully treated, compared to US$ 218-338 for non-DOTS private sector treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis showed that PPM-DOTS can improve effectiveness while also lowering costs. CONCLUSION: PPM-DOTS can be an affordable and cost-effective approach to improving TB control in India, and can substantially lower the economic burden of TB for patients.

Assessment of nephrotoxicity of high-cumulative dose of liposomal amphotericin B in a pediatric patient who underwent allogeneic bone marrow transplantation.

We describe a 9-yr-old boy who received the highest cumulative dose so far reported of liposomal amphotericin B. The patient underwent an allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) for adrenoleucodystrophy, after a conditioning regimen with busulfan, thiothepa and cyclophosphamide. Rabbit antithymoglobulin, cyclosporin and prednisone were used as prophylaxis against graft vs. host disease (GVHD). Post-transplant Epstein-Bar-virus-related lymphoma was diagnosed on day +68 and was treated with donor-derived lymphocytes. The patient developed a severe form of GVHD, and a progressive worsening of his neurological status because of progression of his underlying disease. Death from septic shock occurred 23 months after BMT. During prolonged hospitalization, 19,750 mg of liposomal amphotericin B, about 1000 mg/kg, were given for prophylactic or empirical therapeutic purposes without significant nephrotoxicity. This case suggests that liposomal amphotericin B is safe and well-tolerated even if is administered for long periods and a cumulative dose fivefold greater than the nephrotoxic threshold of amphotericin B deoxycholate is achieved.

Assessment of humoral immunity to poliomyelitis, tetanus, hepatitis B, measles, rubella, and mumps in children after chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of chemotherapy on humoral immunity to vaccine-preventable disease, the authors investigated the persistence of protective antibody titers in a group of patients who were alive and well after they were treated for pediatric malignancies. METHODS: Serum antibody levels were evaluated for polio, tetanus, hepatitis B, rubella, mumps, and measles in 192 children. The terms lack of immunity and loss of immunity, respectively, were used to describe the absence of immunity in patients who were tested only after chemotherapy and in patients who were tested both before and after chemotherapy and determined to have immunity before chemotherapy. RESULTS: Overall, the absence of a protective serum antibody titer for hepatitis B, measles, mumps, rubella, tetanus, and polio was detected in 46%, 25%, 26%, 24%, 14%, and 7% of patients, respectively. On univariate analysis, loss of antibodies against rubella, mumps, and tetanus was associated significantly with younger age (P < 0.001, P = 0.02, and P = 0.001, respectively), and loss of antibodies against measles was significantly associated with younger age and female gender (P = 0.0003 and P = 0.008, respectively). The administration of 59 booster vaccinations to 51 patients who had lost > or = 1 protective antibody titer resulted in an overall response rate of 93%. CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy induced different rates of loss of protective antibody titers depending on the type of vaccination administered. This finding may be responsible for the failure of vaccination programs for patients who have undergone chemotherapy. The administration of a booster dose after the completion of chemotherapy is a simple and cost-effective way to restore humoral immunity against most vaccine-preventable diseases.