RESUMO
Background: A prediction model for graft survival including donor and recipient characteristics could help clinical decision-making and optimize outcomes. The aim of this study was to develop a risk assessment tool for graft survival based on essential pre-transplantation parameters. Methods: The data originated from the national Dutch registry (NOTR; Nederlandse OrgaanTransplantatie Registratie). A multivariable binary logistic model was used to predict graft survival, corrected for the transplantation era and time after transplantation. Subsequently, a prediction score was calculated from the ß-coefficients. For internal validation, derivation (80%) and validation (20%) cohorts were defined. Model performance was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration plots. Results: In total, 1428 transplantations were performed. Ten-year graft survival was 42% for transplantations before 1990, which has improved to the current value of 92%. Over time, significantly more living and pre-emptive transplantations have been performed and overall donor age has increased (P < .05).The prediction model included 71 829 observations of 554 transplantations between 1990 and 2021. Other variables incorporated in the model were recipient age, re-transplantation, number of human leucocyte antigen (HLA) mismatches and cause of kidney failure. The predictive capacity of this model had AUCs of 0.89, 0.79, 0.76 and 0.74 after 1, 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively (P < .01). Calibration plots showed an excellent fit. Conclusions: This pediatric pre-transplantation risk assessment tool exhibits good performance for predicting graft survival within the Dutch pediatric population. This model might support decision-making regarding donor selection to optimize graft outcomes. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05388955.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Parental donor kidney transplantation is the most common treatment option for children and adolescents with kidney failure. Emerging data from observational studies have reported improved short- and medium-term allograft outcomes in recipients of paternal compared to maternal donors. The INCEPTION study aims to identify potential differences in immunological compatibility between maternal and paternal donor kidneys and ascertain how this affects kidney allograft outcomes in children and adolescents with kidney failure. METHODS: This longitudinal observational study will recruit kidney transplant recipients aged ≤18 years who have received a parental donor kidney transplant across 4 countries (Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the Netherlands) between 1990 and 2020. High resolution human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing of both recipients and corresponding parental donors will be undertaken, to provide an in-depth assessment of immunological compatibility. The primary outcome is a composite of de novo donor-specific anti-HLA antibody (DSA), biopsy-proven acute rejection or allograft loss up to 60-months post-transplantation. Secondary outcomes are de novo DSA, biopsy-proven acute rejection, acute or chronic antibody mediated rejection or Chronic Allograft Damage Index (CADI) score of > 1 on allograft biopsy post-transplant, allograft function, proteinuria and allograft loss. Using principal component analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling, we will determine the associations between defined sets of immunological and clinical parameters that may identify risk stratification for the primary and secondary outcome measures among young people accepting a parental donor kidney for transplantation. This study design will allow us to specifically investigate the relative importance of accepting a maternal compared to paternal donor, for families deciding on the best option for donation. DISCUSSION: The INCEPTION study findings will explore potentially differential immunological risks of maternal and paternal donor kidneys for transplantation among children and adolescents. Our study will provide the evidence base underpinning the selection of parental donor in order to achieve the best projected long-term kidney transplant and overall health outcomes for children and adolescents, a recognized vulnerable population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The INCEPTION study has been registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, with the trial registration number of ACTRN12620000911998 (14th September 2020).