The estimated future disease burden of hepatitis C virus in the Netherlands with different treatment paradigms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Netherlands is low (anti-HCV prevalence 0.22%). All-oral treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is tolerable and effective but expensive. Our analysis projected the future HCV-related disease burden in the Netherlands by applying different treatment scenarios. METHODS: Using a modelling approach, the size of the HCV-viraemic population in the Netherlands in 2014 was estimated using available data and expert consensus. The base scenario (based on the current Dutch situation) and different treatment scenarios (with increased efficacy, treatment uptake, and diagnoses) were modelled and the future HCV disease burden was predicted for each scenario. RESULTS: The estimated number of individuals with viraemic HCV infection in the Netherlands in 2014 was 19,200 (prevalence 0.12%). By 2030, this number is projected to decrease by 4 5% in the base scenario and by 85% if the number of treated patients increases. Furthermore, the number of individuals with hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths is estimated to decrease by 19% and 27%, respectively, in the base scenario, but may both be further decreased by 68% when focusing on treatment of HCV patients with a fibrosis stage of ≥ F2. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial reduction in HCV-related disease burden is possible with increases in treatment uptake as the efficacy of current therapies is high. Further reduction of HCV-related disease burden may be achieved through increases in diagnosis and preventative measures. These results might inform the further development of effective disease management strategies in the Netherlands.

Point Shear Wave Elastography by Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Quantification in Comparison to Transient Elastography for the Noninvasive Assessment of Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C: A Prospective International Multicenter Study.

PURPOSE: The aim of the present prospective European multicenter study was to demonstrate the non-inferiority of point shear wave elastography (pSWE) compared to transient elastography (TE) for the assessment of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 241 patients with chronic hepatitis C were prospectively enrolled at 7 European study sites and received pSWE, TE and blood tests. Liver biopsy was performed with histological staging by a central pathologist. In addition, for inclusion of cirrhotic patients, a maximum of 10 % of patients with overt liver cirrhosis confirmed by imaging methods were allowed by protocol (n = 24). RESULTS: Owing to slower than expected recruitment due to a reduction of liver biopsies, the study was closed after 4 years before the target enrollment of 433 patients with 235 patients in the 'intention to diagnose' analysis and 182 patients in the 'per protocol' analysis. Therefore, the non-inferiority margin was enhanced to 0.075 but non-inferiority of pSWE could not be proven. However, Paired comparison of the diagnostic accuracy of pSWE and TE revealed no significant difference between the two methods in the 'intention to diagnose' and 'per protocol' analysis (0.81 vs. 0.85 for F ≥ 2, p = 0.15; 0.88 vs. 0.92 for F ≥ 3, p = 0.11; 0.89 vs. 0.94 for F = 4, p = 0.19). Measurement failure was significantly higher for TE than for pSWE (p = 0.030). CONCLUSION: Non-inferiority of pSWE compared to TE could not be shown. However, the diagnostic accuracy of pSWE and TE was comparable for the noninvasive staging of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection disease burden - volume 2.

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 2.

Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Acoustic radiation force impulse imaging for non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

Acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging is a novel ultrasound-based elastography method that is integrated in a conventional ultrasound machine. It might provide an alternative method to transient elastography for the noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis. While previous studies have shown comparable diagnostic accuracy of ARFI to transient elastography in chronic hepatitis C, the aim of the present prospective multicenter study was to evaluate ARFI for the assessment of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B. ARFI imaging involves the mechanical excitation of tissue using short-duration acoustic pulses to generate localized displacements in tissue. The displacements result in shear-wave propagation which is tracked using ultrasonic, correlation-based methods and recorded in m/s. In the present international prospective study, patients infected with chronic hepatitis B received ARFI imaging, blood tests and if available transient elastography. The results were compared to liver biopsy as reference method analysed by a central pathologist. In 92 of 114 patients, a comparison of ARFI with transient elastography was possible. ARFI imaging and transient elastography correlated significantly with histological fibrosis stage. The diagnostic accuracy expressed as areas under ROC curves for ARFI imaging and transient elastography was 0.75 and 0.83 for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2), 0.93 and 0.94 for the diagnosis of severe fibrosis (F ≥ 3), and 0.97 and 0.93 for the diagnosis of liver cirrhosis, respectively. No significant difference was found between ARFI and transient elastography. ARFI imaging is a reliable ultrasound-based method for the assessment of advanced stages of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

Significant liver damage in patients with bleeding disorders and chronic hepatitis C: non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis using transient elastography.

BACKGROUND: Many patients with bleeding disorders have been infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), mainly with genotype 1. Antiviral treatment is only effective in 50% of these patients and is often accompanied by serious side effects. Consequently, careful selection of patients for treatment is warranted. Liver biopsies are generally not performed in these patients because of increased bleeding risk and high costs. We therefore assessed liver fibrosis and cirrhosis non-invasively using liver stiffness measurement (LSM). METHODS: We enrolled 124 patients with bleeding disorders and chronic hepatitis C. Liver fibrosis was assessed by LSM using Fibroscan. In order to assess the validity of LSM in our hands, a separate group of 63 patients without bleeding disorders infected with HCV were evaluated with both LSM and biopsy. RESULTS: In the validation study, liver elasticity was highly correlated with histological fibrosis stage (correlations coefficient 0.73, P < 0.001). Based on LSM, 18% of patients with bleeding disorders and chronic hepatitis C had severe fibrosis, and 17% had cirrhosis after 34 years of infection (range 14-40). However, the prevalence of cirrhosis based on laboratory and ultrasonographic findings was only 7%. Independent risk factors for an increase in LSM were older age at infection, higher body mass index, presence of viral co-infection, and male gender. Fifteen out of 59 patients (25%) with an apparent indication for treatment (significant fibrosis by LSM) agreed to start antiviral therapy within 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: We found an unexpected high number of patients with significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with bleeding disorders and hepatitis C detected by LSM, with considerable impact on the management of the disease.

Dynamic decision analysis to determine optimal treatment duration in chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for stopping treatment of chronic hepatitis C are based on hepatitis C ribonucleic acid measurements at 12 and 24 weeks. AIM: To explore an alternative approach for making individualized recommendations about treatment duration, based on simple alanine aminotransferase tests and on cost-per-cure. METHODS: We analysed individual patient data from 13 randomized, controlled trials with interferon alone or combined with ribavirin. Using multiple logistic regression, we built a model that estimated the probability of sustained virological response for treatment durations of 24 and 48 weeks. Decisions to prolong treatment were based on an increase in probability of sustained virological response. If the increase was 10%, the cost-per-cure became decisive with a limit of 50,000. RESULTS: Noncirrhotics with genotype 2 or 3 did not benefit when treatment was continued beyond 24 weeks. Sustained virological response rates in cirrhotic patients increased by 14-47% if treatment was continued up to 48 weeks. In noncirrhotic genotype 1 or 4 patients who had elevated alanine aminotransferase levels at week 4, the probability of sustained virological response increased by <10% if treatment was continued up to 48 weeks; the cost-per-cure for these patients would exceed 50,000. CONCLUSION: The dynamics of alanine aminotransferase levels and cost-per-cure provides a useful alternative to determine the duration of therapy in chronic hepatitis C.