Provider-led community antiretroviral therapy distribution in Malawi: Retrospective cohort study of retention, viral load suppression and costs.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes of community antiretroviral therapy (ART) distribution (CAD), in which provider-led ART teams deliver integrated HIV services at health posts in communities, have been mixed in sub-Saharan African countries. CAD outcomes and costs relative to facility-based care have not been reported from Malawi. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in two Malawian districts (Lilongwe and Chikwawa districts), comparing CAD with facility-based ART care. We selected an equal number of clients in CAD and facility-based care who were aged >13 years, had an undetectable viral load (VL) result in the last year and were stable on first-line ART for ≥1 year. We compared retention in care (alive and no period of ≥60 days without ART) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression and maintenance of VL suppression (<1,000 copies/mL) during follow-up using logistic regression. We also compared costs (in US$) from the health system and client perspectives for the two models of care. Data were collected in October and November 2020. RESULTS: 700 ART clients (350 CAD, 350 facility-based) were included. The median age was 43 years (IQR 36-51), median duration on ART was 7 years (IQR 4-9), and 75% were female. Retention in care did not differ significantly between clients in CAD (89.4% retained) and facility-based care (89.3%), p = 0.95. No significant difference in maintenance of VL suppression were observed between CAD and facility-based care (aOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 0.47-3.20, p = 0.70). CAD resulted in slightly higher health system costs than facility-based care: $118/year vs. $108/year per person accessing care; and $133/year vs. $122/year per person retained in care. CAD decreased individual client costs compared to facility-based care: $3.20/year vs. $11.40/year per person accessing care; and $3.60/year vs. $12.90/year per person retained in care. CONCLUSION: Clients in provider-led CAD care in Malawi had very good retention in care and VL suppression outcomes, similar to clients receiving facility-based care. While health system costs were somewhat higher with CAD, costs for clients were reduced substantially. More research is needed to understand the impact of other differentiated service delivery models on costs for the health system and clients.

Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended by WHO as an additional option for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, but there is concern that its introduction could lead to an increase in integrase-inhibitor resistance undermining treatment programmes that rely on dolutegravir. We aimed to project the health benefits and risks of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: With HIV Synthesis, an individual-based HIV model, we simulated 1000 setting-scenarios reflecting both variability and uncertainty about HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and compared outcomes for each with and without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction. PrEP use is assumed to be risk-informed and to be used only in 3-month periods (the time step for the model) when having condomless sex. We consider three groups at risk of integrase-inhibitor resistance emergence: people who start cabotegravir-PrEP after (unknowingly) being infected with HIV, those who seroconvert while on PrEP, and those with HIV who have residual cabotegravir drugs concentrations during the early tail period after recently stopping PrEP. We projected the outcomes of policies of cabotegravir-PrEP introduction and of no introduction in 2022 across 50 years. In 50% of setting-scenarios we considered that more sensitive nucleic-acid-based HIV diagnostic testing (NAT), rather than regular antibody-based HIV rapid testing, might be used to reduce resistance risk. For cost-effectiveness analysis we assumed in our base case a cost of cabotegravir-PrEP drug to be similar to oral PrEP, resulting in a total annual cost of USD$144 per year ($114 per year and $264 per year considered in sensitivity analyses), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life years averted, and a discount rate of 3% per year. FINDINGS: Reflecting our assumptions on the appeal of cabotegravir-PrEP, its introduction is predicted to lead to a substantial increase in PrEP use with approximately 2·6% of the adult population (and 46% of those with a current indication for PrEP) receiving PrEP compared with 1·5% (28%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction across 20 years. As a result, HIV incidence is expected to be lower by 29% (90% range across setting-scenarios 6-52%) across the same period compared with no introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP. In people initiating antiretroviral therapy, the proportion with integrase-inhibitor resistance after 20 years is projected to be 1·7% (0-6·4%) without cabotegravir-PrEP introduction but 13·1% (4·1-30·9%) with. Cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is predicted to lower the proportion of all people on antiretroviral therapy with viral loads less than 1000 copies per mL by 0·9% (-2·5% to 0·3%) at 20 years. For an adult population of 10 million an overall decrease in number of AIDS deaths of about 4540 per year (-13 000 to -300) across 50 years is predicted, with little discernible benefit with NAT when compared with standard antibody-based rapid testing. AIDS deaths are predicted to be averted with cabotegravir-PrEP introduction in 99% of setting-scenarios. Across the 50-year time horizon, overall HIV programme costs are predicted to be similar regardless of whether cabotegravir-PrEP is introduced (total mean discounted annual HIV programme costs per year across 50 years is $151·3 million vs $150·7 million), assuming the use of standard antibody testing. With antibody-based rapid HIV testing, the introduction of cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective under an assumed threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life year averted in 82% of setting-scenarios at the cost of $144 per year, in 52% at $264, and in 87% at $114. INTERPRETATION: Despite leading to increases in integrase-inhibitor drug resistance, cabotegravir-PrEP introduction is likely to reduce AIDS deaths in addition to HIV incidence. Long-acting cabotegravir-PrEP is predicted to be cost-effective if delivered at similar cost to oral PrEP with antibody-based rapid HIV testing. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

Regression discontinuity analysis demonstrated varied effect of Treat-All on CD4 testing among Southern African countries.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether Treat-All policy impacted laboratory testing practices of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in Southern Africa. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used HIV cohort data from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe in a regression discontinuity design to estimate changes in pre-ART CD4 testing and viral load monitoring following national Treat-all adoption that occurred during 2016 to 2017. This study included more than 230,000 ART-naïve people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged five years or older who started ART within two years of national Treat-All adoption. RESULTS: We found pre-ART CD4 testing decreased following adoption of Treat-All recommendations in Malawi (-21.4 percentage points (pp), 95% confidence interval, CI: -26.8, -16.0) and in Mozambique (-8.8pp, 95% CI: -14.9, -2.8), but increased in Zambia (+2.7pp, 95% CI: +0.4, +5.1). Treat-All policy had no effect on viral load monitoring, except among females in South Africa (+7.1pp, 95% CI: +1.1, +13.0). CONCLUSION: Treat-All policy expanded ART eligibility, but led to reductions in pre-ART CD4 testing in some countries that may weaken advanced HIV disease management. Continued and expanded support of CD4 and viral load laboratory capacity is needed to further improve treatment successes and allow for uniform evaluation of ART implementation across Southern Africa.

Cost-per-diagnosis as a metric for monitoring cost-effectiveness of HIV testing programmes in low-income settings in southern Africa: health economic and modelling analysis.

INTRODUCTION: As prevalence of undiagnosed HIV declines, it is unclear whether testing programmes will be cost-effective. To guide their HIV testing programmes, countries require appropriate metrics that can be measured. The cost-per-diagnosis is potentially a useful metric. METHODS: We simulated a series of setting-scenarios for adult HIV epidemics and ART programmes typical of settings in southern Africa using an individual-based model and projected forward from 2018 under two policies: (i) a minimum package of "core" testing (i.e. testing in pregnant women, for diagnosis of symptoms, in sex workers, and in men coming forward for circumcision) is conducted, and (ii) core-testing as above plus additional testing beyond this ("additional-testing"), for which we specify different rates of testing and various degrees to which those with HIV are more likely to test than those without HIV. We also considered a plausible range of unit test costs. The aim was to assess the relationship between cost-per-diagnosis and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the additional-testing policy. The discount rate used in the base case was 3% per annum (costs in 2018 U.S. dollars). RESULTS: There was a strong graded relationship between the cost-per-diagnosis and the ICER. Overall, the ICER was below $500 per-DALY-averted (the cost-effectiveness threshold used in primary analysis) so long as the cost-per-diagnosis was below $315. This threshold cost-per-diagnosis was similar according to epidemic and programmatic features including the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV, the HIV incidence and a measure of HIV programme quality (the proportion of HIV diagnosed people having a viral load <1000 copies/mL). However, restricting to women, additional-testing did not appear cost-effective even at a cost-per-diagnosis of below $50, while restricting to men additional-testing was cost-effective up to a cost-per-diagnosis of $585. The threshold cost per diagnosis for testing in men to be cost-effective fell to $256 when the cost-effectiveness threshold was $300 instead of $500, and to $81 when considering a discount rate of 10% per annum. CONCLUSIONS: For testing programmes in low-income settings in southern African there is an extremely strong relationship between the cost-per-diagnosis and the cost-per-DALY averted, indicating that the cost-per-diagnosis can be used to monitor the cost-effectiveness of testing programmes.

Cost-effectiveness of urine-based tuberculosis screening in hospitalised patients with HIV in Africa: a microsimulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Testing urine improves the number of tuberculosis diagnoses made among patients in hospital with HIV. In conjunction with the two-country randomised Rapid Urine-based Screening for Tuberculosis to Reduce AIDS-related Mortality in Hospitalised Patients in Africa (STAMP) trial, we used a microsimulation model to estimate the effects on clinical outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of adding urine-based tuberculosis screening to sputum screening for hospitalised patients with HIV. METHODS: We compared two tuberculosis screening strategies used irrespective of symptoms among hospitalised patients with HIV in Malawi and South Africa: a GeneXpert assay (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) for Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance (Xpert) in sputum samples (standard of care) versus sputum Xpert combined with a lateral flow assay for M tuberculosis lipoarabinomannan in urine (Determine TB-LAM Ag test, Abbott, Waltham, MA, USA [formerly Alere]; TB-LAM) and concentrated urine Xpert (intervention). A cohort of simulated patients was modelled using selected characteristics of participants, tuberculosis diagnostic yields, and use of hospital resources in the STAMP trial. We calibrated 2-month model outputs to the STAMP trial results and projected clinical and economic outcomes at 2 years, 5 years, and over a lifetime. We judged the intervention to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was less than US$750/year of life saved (YLS) in Malawi and $940/YLS in South Africa. A modified intervention of adding only TB-LAM to the standard of care was also evaluated. We did a budget impact analysis of countrywide implementation of the intervention. FINDINGS: The intervention increased life expectancy by 0·5-1·2 years and was cost-effective, with an ICER of $450/YLS in Malawi and $840/YLS in South Africa. The ICERs decreased over time. At lifetime horizon, the intervention remained cost-effective under nearly all modelled assumptions. The modified intervention was at least as cost-effective as the intervention (ICERs $420/YLS in Malawi and $810/YLS in South Africa). Over 5 years, the intervention would save around 51 000 years of life in Malawi and around 171 000 years of life in South Africa. Health-care expenditure for screened individuals was estimated to increase by $37 million (10·8%) and $261 million (2·8%), respectively. INTERPRETATION: Urine-based tuberculosis screening of all hospitalised patients with HIV could increase life expectancy and be cost-effective in resource-limited settings. Urine TB-LAM is especially attractive because of high incremental diagnostic yield and low additional cost compared with sputum Xpert, making a compelling case for expanding its use to all hospitalised patients with HIV in areas with high HIV burden and endemic tuberculosis. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health, Royal College of Physicians, Massachusetts General Hospital.

A targeted approach for routine viral load monitoring in Malawian adults on antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: WHO recommends HIV viral load (VL) testing 6 months after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and every 12 months thereafter, but cost prohibits routine, universal VL testing in many developing countries. We sought to devise a targeted approach to routine VL monitoring that could reduce cost and identify those at low risk for virologic failure (VF). METHODS: We analysed screening data from a clinical trial enrolling adults on ART in Malawi. We identified risk factors associated with VF and employed the Knill-Jones method to assign summary score identifying persons at lower risk for VF. RESULTS: Among 957 adults, prevalence of VF was 9.4%. Factors independently associated with VF included age <38 years (OR 3.44, 95% CI 2.01-5.89), ART duration >2.5 years (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.79-4.96), ART adherence <95% (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.06-2.94), CD4 count <200 cells/µl (OR 5.94, 95% CI 3.27-10.78), haemoglobin <13 g/dl (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.70-4.50) and CD8 count >885 cells/µl (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.28-3.44). Our VF prediction summary score included all factors above except CD8 count and was fairly accurate with validated area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76. Implementation could reduce VL testing by 65%. CONCLUSION: A simple score incorporating age, ART duration and adherence, and CD4 count can accurately identify adults at low risk for VF in a sub-Saharan African setting. In areas with high ART utilisation and limited VL testing capacity, a targeted approach could optimise routine VL monitoring while identifying adults in need of alternate ART regimens.

Assessment of second-line antiretroviral regimens for HIV therapy in Africa.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and toxic effects of nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) are uncertain when these agents are used with a protease inhibitor in second-line therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in resource-limited settings. Removing the NRTIs or replacing them with raltegravir may provide a benefit. METHODS: In this open-label trial in sub-Saharan Africa, we randomly assigned 1277 adults and adolescents with HIV infection and first-line treatment failure to receive a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (lopinavir-ritonavir) plus clinician-selected NRTIs (NRTI group, 426 patients), a protease inhibitor plus raltegravir in a superiority comparison (raltegravir group, 433 patients), or protease-inhibitor monotherapy after 12 weeks of induction therapy with raltegravir in a noninferiority comparison (monotherapy group, 418 patients). The primary composite end point, good HIV disease control, was defined as survival with no new World Health Organization stage 4 events, a CD4+ count of more than 250 cells per cubic millimeter, and a viral load of less than 10,000 copies per milliliter or 10,000 copies or more with no protease resistance mutations at week 96 and was analyzed with the use of imputation of data (≤4%). RESULTS: Good HIV disease control was achieved in 60% of the patients (mean, 255 patients) in the NRTI group, 64% of the patients (mean, 277) in the raltegravir group (P=0.21 for the comparison with the NRTI group; superiority of raltegravir not shown), and 55% of the patients (mean, 232) in the monotherapy group (noninferiority of monotherapy not shown, based on a 10-percentage-point margin). There was no significant difference in rates of grade 3 or 4 adverse events among the three groups (P=0.82). The viral load was less than 400 copies per milliliter in 86% of patients in the NRTI group, 86% in the raltegravir group (P=0.97), and 61% in the monotherapy group (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: When given with a protease inhibitor in second-line therapy, NRTIs retained substantial virologic activity without evidence of increased toxicity, and there was no advantage to replacing them with raltegravir. Virologic control was inferior with protease-inhibitor monotherapy. (Funded by European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership and others; EARNEST Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN37737787, and ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00988039.).

Longitudinal lactate levels from routine point-of-care monitoring in adult Malawian antiretroviral therapy patients: associations with stavudine toxicities.

INTRODUCTION: Stavudine is still widely used in under-resourced settings such as Malawi due to its low price. It frequently causes peripheral neuropathy and lipodystrophy and increases the risk of lactic acidosis and other high lactate syndromes. METHODS: We studied the association of longitudinal lactate levels, obtained by routine, 3-monthly point-of-care monitoring, with peripheral neuropathy, lipodystrophy and high lactate syndromes in adult Malawians who were in the second year of stavudine containing antiretroviral therapy (ART). RESULTS: Point-of-care lactate measurements were feasible in a busy urban ART clinic. Of 1170 lactate levels collected from 253 patients over the course of one year, 487 (41.8%) were elevated (>2.2mg/dl), 58 (5.0%) were highly elevated (>3.5mg/dl). At least one elevated lactate level occurred in 210 (83.0%) of patients and sustained hyperlactatemia in 65 (26.4%). In random effects analyses lipodystrophy and peripheral neuropathy were associated with higher lactate levels. Only five patients developed high lactate syndromes (one lactic acidosis) of whom no preceding lactate measurements were available because events had started before enrolment. Lactate levels significantly decreased over time and no high lactate syndromes were observed after the 15th month on ART. CONCLUSION: Lipodystrophy and peripheral neuropathy were associated with higher lactate levels. Lactate levels decreased over time, coinciding with absence of new high lactate syndromes after the 15th month on ART.

Applying lessons learnt from the 'DOTS' Tuberculosis Model to monitoring and evaluating persons with diabetes mellitus in Blantyre, Malawi.

The global burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) is immense and predicted to reach 438 million by 2030, with 80% of the cases being in the developing world. The management of chronic non-communicable diseases like DM is poor in most resource-limited settings, and the 'directly observed therapy, short course' (DOTS) framework for tuberculosis control has been proposed as a feasible way to improve this situation. In late 2009, aspects of the DOTS model were applied to the management of persons with DM in the diabetes clinic in Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi, and a point-of-care electronic medical record system was set up to support and monitor patients in care. This is the first quarterly and cumulative report of persons with DM registered for care stratified by treatment outcomes, complications and medication history up to 31 December 2010. There were 170 new patients registered between October and December 2010, with 1864 ever registered by 31 December 2010. Most patients were alive and in care; 3 died, 53 defaulted and 3 transferred out. Of those on oral hypoglycaemic agents, metformin was most commonly used. Complications were common. The monitoring and evaluation will be further refined, and at the same time, the systems developed in Blantyre will be expanded to other parts of the country.

Diagnosis and management of antiretroviral-therapy failure in resource-limited settings in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges and perspectives.

Despite the enormous progress made in scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, many challenges remain, not least of which are the identification and management of patients who have failed first-line therapy. Less than 3% of patients are receiving second-line treatment at present, whereas 15-25% of patients have detectable viral loads 12 months or more into treatment, of whom a substantial proportion might have virological failure. We discuss the reasons why virological ART failure is likely to be under-diagnosed in the routine health system, and address the current difficulties with standard recommended second-line ART regimens. The development of new diagnostic tools for ART failure, in particular a point-of-care HIV viral-load test, combined with simple and inexpensive second-line therapy, such as boosted protease-inhibitor monotherapy, could revolutionise the management of ART failure in resource-limited settings.

Supplementary feeding in the care of the wasted HIV infected patient.

Wasting and food insecurity are commonly seen in patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, and supplementary feeding is often offered in conjunction with ART. Evidence for the effectiveness of such supplementary feeding is scant. A randomised, investigator-blinded, controlled clinical trial of two types of supplementary food, corn/soy blended flour and a ready-to-use peanut butter-based lipid paste, in wasted adults in Blantyre, Malawi is described and the results summarised. A historical control group who did not receive supplementary food is described as well. Provision of about half of the daily energy requirement as a supplementary food for 14 weeks resulted in more rapid restoration of a normal BMI; and the energy-dense, ready-to-use paste was associated with more rapid weight gain than the blended flour. Survival was similar among the 3 groups. The strong association between lower BMI and survival indirectly suggests that there may well be clinical benefit from supplementary feeding in this population. No differences were seen in ART adherence or quality of life with more rapid restoration of BMI. Further research is urgently needed concerning the widespread practice of supplementary feeding in HIV/AIDS care to most effectively utilize this intervention.

Can the initial success of the Malawi ART scale-up programme be sustained? The example of Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre.

The antiretroviral therapy clinic of Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), Blantyre, Malawi was established as a fee-paying clinic in 2000. In 2004 a successful transition to free-of-charge antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision was made with the introduction of the national ART scale-up programme. Despite the human resource crisis in the healthcare system, remarkable improvements in quantity and quality of care, a reduction of defaulters, favourable ART outcomes and better access to ART for the poor, women and children were achieved. A number of challenges need to be overcome to sustain the initial success of the national ART scale-up programme in QECH, the most important being the shortage of ART staff in relation to the ever-expanding patient population.

Diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of a simplified low cost method of counting CD4 cells with flow cytometry in Malawi: diagnostic accuracy study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of a simplified low cost method for measuring absolute and percentage CD4 counts with flow cytometry. DESIGN: A CD4 counting method (Blantyre count) using a CD4 and CD45 antibody combination with reduced blood and reagent volumes. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed by measuring agreement of the index test with two other assays (TruCount and FACSCount). Clinical utility was investigated by comparing CD4 counts with the new assay with WHO clinical staging in patients with HIV. SETTING: Research laboratories and antiretroviral therapy clinic at a medical school and large government hospital in southern Malawi. PARTICIPANTS: Assay comparisons were performed on consecutive blood samples sent for CD4 counting from 129 patients with HIV. Comparison of CD4 count with staging was conducted on 253 consecutive new patients attending the antiretroviral therapy clinic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Limits of agreement with 95% confidence intervals between index test and reference standards. RESULTS: The limits of agreement for Blantyre count and TruCount were excellent (cell count -48.9 to 27.0 x10(9)/l for absolute counts in the CD4 range <400x10(9)/l and -2.42% to 2.37% for CD4 percentage). The assay was affordable with reagent costs per test of $0.44 ( pound0.22, euro0.33) for both absolute count and CD4 percentage, and $0.11 for CD4 percentage alone. Of 193 patients with clinical stage I or II disease, who were ineligible for antiretroviral therapy by clinical staging criteria, 73 (38%) had CD4 counts <200x10(9)/l. By contrast, 12 (20%) of 60 patients with stage III or IV disease had CD4 counts >350x10(9)/l. CONCLUSIONS: This simplified method of counting CD4 cells with flow cytometry has good agreement with established commercial assays, is affordable for routine clinical use in Africa, and could improve clinical decision making in patients with HIV.

Evaluation of antiretroviral therapy results in a resource-poor setting in Blantyre, Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate treatment results of the paying antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic of Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, a large public and teaching hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. The only ART was a fixed drug combination of stavudine, lamivudine and nevirapine. METHODS: Cross sectional study with interviews, laboratory tests (CD4 count, viral load, nevirapine plasma levels, transaminases) and data extraction from files. RESULTS: A total of 422 (59%) of the patients who started ART since 2000 were lost to follow-up. The 176 patients enrolled in the study had good virological and excellent clinical treatment results. The most common side effect was peripheral neuropathy. Nevirapine plasma levels were remarkably high and associated with successful virological treatment results. Two simple adherence questions pertaining to the use of medication in the previous 8 days corresponded well with nevirapine levels. The most important reasons for non-adherence were shortage of drugs in the hospital pharmacy and personal financial constraints. CONCLUSIONS: (1) Many patients were lost to follow-up. (2) High nevirapine levels contributed to good therapy results in those studied. (3) Simple adherence questions predicted subtherapeutic nevirapine levels. (4) Antiretroviral drug supply needs to be uninterrupted and free of charge, to prevent avoidable non-adherence.