Minimizing Population Health Loss in Times of Scarce Surgical Capacity During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Crisis and Beyond: A Modeling Study.

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 has put unprecedented pressure on healthcare systems worldwide, leading to a reduction of the available healthcare capacity. Our objective was to develop a decision model to estimate the impact of postponing semielective surgical procedures on health, to support prioritization of care from a utilitarian perspective. METHODS: A cohort state-transition model was developed and applied to 43 semielective nonpediatric surgical procedures commonly performed in academic hospitals. Scenarios of delaying surgery from 2 weeks were compared with delaying up to 1 year and no surgery at all. Model parameters were based on registries, scientific literature, and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease study. For each surgical procedure, the model estimated the average expected disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per month of delay. RESULTS: Given the best available evidence, the 2 surgical procedures associated with most DALYs owing to delay were bypass surgery for Fontaine III/IV peripheral arterial disease (0.23 DALY/month, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13-0.36) and transaortic valve implantation (0.15 DALY/month, 95% CI: 0.09-0.24). The 2 surgical procedures with the least DALYs were placing a shunt for dialysis (0.01, 95% CI: 0.005-0.01) and thyroid carcinoma resection (0.01, 95% CI: 0.01-0.02). CONCLUSION: Expected health loss owing to surgical delay can be objectively calculated with our decision model based on best available evidence, which can guide prioritization of surgical procedures to minimize population health loss in times of scarcity. The model results should be placed in the context of different ethical perspectives and combined with capacity management tools to facilitate large-scale implementation.

The Possible Impact of Aortic Stiffness on Quality of Late Life: An Exploratory Study.

PURPOSE: Aortic stiffness (AS) is associated with cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in the older population. AS might also influence the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) as a result of the negative effects of AS on cognitive and physical morbidity. We aimed to investigate the possible association between AS and HRQOL in people aged 75 years and over. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study was part of the SCOPE study, an international multicenter cohort observational study. The indicators for AS were aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) and central pulse pressure (cPP). HRQOL was assessed using the EQ-5D index and the EQ-5D visual analog scale (VAS). ANCOVA and multivariate regression models were used to investigate possible associations. RESULTS: We included 280 Dutch participants of the SCOPE study. Median age was 79 years (IQR 76-83) and 42.1% were women. Participants reporting any problem on the EQ-5D index (n=214) had higher values of aPWV (12.6 vs 12.2 m/s, p = 0.024) than participants not experiencing any problem (n=66) and comparable values of cPP (44.4 vs 42.0 mmHg, p = 0.119). Estimates only slightly changed after adjustments. No association was found between indicators of AS and EQ-5D VAS. CONCLUSION: Aortic stiffness was associated with impaired quality of late life. This association could be mediated by subclinical vascular pathology affecting mental and physical health.

Medically unexplained physical symptoms in patients visiting the emergency department: an international multicentre retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the incidence and characteristics of patients presenting with physical symptoms that remain medically unexplained at the emergency department (ED). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective chart study was carried out in three hospitals in The Netherlands and Belgium. All patients (age > 18 years) visiting the ED in 4 selected weeks in 2013 at the Erasmus University Medical Center (Erasmus MC) in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and 1 selected week in 2013 at the Haaglanden Medical Center, Westeinde HMC in The Hague, The Netherlands, and the University Hospital Ghent (UZG), Belgium, were included. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. RESULTS: A total of 2869 patients (Erasmus MC 1674, HMC 691, UZG 504) were included. Medically unexplained physical symptoms in the emergency department (EDMUPS) were present in 13.4% of all ED visits (Erasmus MC 12.5%, HMC 18.7%, UZG 9.1%). No EDMUPS were identified in trauma patients. When excluding trauma patients, EDMUPS were present in 18.5% (Erasmus MC 16.8%, HMC 26.5%, UZG 13.3%) of the visits. The characteristics of patients with and without EDMUPS differed significantly; patients with EDMUPS were more often younger, female, self-referred, frequent visitors, were prescribed less medication and more often had a psychiatric disease. Dutch and Belgian Hospital differed in the distribution of patients in triage categories and in the incidence of psychiatric illnesses. CONCLUSION: Physical symptoms remain unexplained in a significant number of patients at the time of ED assessment.

Assessing the assessment in emergency care training.

OBJECTIVE: Each year over 1.5 million health care professionals attend emergency care courses. Despite high stakes for patients and extensive resources involved, little evidence exists on the quality of assessment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of commonly used formats in assessing emergency care skills. METHODS: Residents were assessed at the end of a 2-week emergency course; a subgroup was videotaped. Psychometric analyses were conducted to assess the validity and inter-rater reliability of the assessment instrument, which included a checklist, a 9-item competency scale and a global performance scale. RESULTS: A group of 144 residents and 12 raters participated in the study; 22 residents were videotaped and re-assessed by 8 raters. The checklists showed limited validity and poor inter-rater reliability for the dimensions "correct" and "timely" (ICC = .30 and.39 resp.). The competency scale had good construct validity, consisting of a clinical and a communication subscale. The internal consistency of the (sub)scales was high (α = .93/.91/.86). The inter-rater reliability was moderate for the clinical competency subscale (.49) and the global performance scale (.50), but poor for the communication subscale (.27). A generalizability study showed that for a reliable assessment 5-13 raters are needed when using checklists, and four when using the clinical competency scale or the global performance scale. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows poor validity and reliability for assessing emergency skills with checklists but good validity and moderate reliability with clinical competency or global performance scales. Involving more raters can improve the reliability substantially. Recommendations are made to improve this high stakes skill assessment.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide testing in the emergency department: beneficial effects on hospitalization, costs, and outcome.

BACKGROUND: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is an established biomarker for heart failure. Assessment of this biomarker in patients with acute dyspnea presenting to the emergency department (ED) may aid diagnostic decision-making, resulting in improved patient care and reduced costs. METHODS: In a prospective clinical trial, patients presenting with acute dyspnea to the ED of the Erasmus Medical College, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, were randomized for either rapid measurement or no measurement of NT-proBNP. For ruling out heart failure, cutoff values of 93 pg/mL in male and 144 pg/mL in female patients were used, and for ruling in heart failure, a cutoff value of 1,017 pg/mL was used. Time to discharge from the hospital and costs related to hospital admission were primary end points. Bootstrap analysis was used for comparison of costs and 30-day mortality between the NT-proBNP and control group. RESULTS: A total of 477 patients (54% male) was enrolled. The mean age was 59 years, with 44% of patients having a history of cardiac disease. Median time to discharge from the hospital was 1.9 days (interquartile range [IQR], 0.12-8.4 days) in the NT-proBNP group (n = 241) compared with 3.9 days (IQR, 0.16-11.0 days) in the control group (n = 236) (P = .04). Introduction of NT-proBNP testing resulted in a trend toward reduction in costs related to hospital admission and diagnostic investigations of $1,364 per patient (95% CI $-246 to $3,215), whereas 30-day mortality was similar (15 patients in the NT-proBNP and 18 patients in the control group). CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of NT-proBNP testing for heart failure in the ED setting reduces the time to discharge and is associated with a trend toward cost reduction.