A Living Lab approach to understanding dairy farmers' technology and data needs to improve herd health: Focus groups from 6 European countries.

For successful development and adoption of technology on dairy farms, farmers need to be included in the innovation process. However, the design of agricultural technologies usually takes a top-down approach with little involvement of end-users at the early stages. Living Labs offer a methodology that involve end-users throughout the development process and emphasize the importance of understanding users' needs. Currently, exploration of dairy farmers' technology needs has been limited to specific types of technology (e.g., smartphone apps) and adult cattle. The aim of this study was to use a Living Lab approach to identify dairy farmers' data and technology needs to improve herd health and inform innovation development. We conducted 18 focus groups with a total of 80 dairy farmers from Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Data were analyzed using Template Analysis, and 6 themes were generated representing the fundamental needs of autonomy, comfort, competence, community and relatedness, purpose, and security. Farmers favored technologies that provided them with convenience, facilitated their knowledge and understanding of problems on farm, and allowed them to be self-reliant. Issues with data sharing and accessibility and usability of software were barriers to technology use. Furthermore, farmers were facing problems around recruitment and management of labor and needed ways to reduce stress. Controlling aspects of the barn environment, such as air quality, hygiene, and stocking density, were particular concerns in relation to youngstock management. Overall, the findings suggest that developers of farm technologies may want to include farmers in the design process to ensure a positive user experience and improve accessibility. The needs identified in this study can be used as a framework when designing farm technologies to strengthen need satisfaction and reduce any potential harm toward needs.

Output-based assessment of herd-level freedom from infection in endemic situations: Application of a Bayesian Hidden Markov model.

Countries have implemented control programmes (CPs) for cattle diseases such as bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) that are tailored to each country-specific situation. Practical methods are needed to assess the output of these CPs in terms of the confidence of freedom from infection that is achieved. As part of the STOC free project, a Bayesian Hidden Markov model was developed, called STOC free model, to estimate the probability of infection at herd-level. In the current study, the STOC free model was applied to BVDV field data in four study regions, from CPs based on ear notch samples. The aim of this study was to estimate the probability of herd-level freedom from BVDV in regions that are not (yet) free. We additionally evaluated the sensitivity of the parameter estimates and predicted probabilities of freedom to the prior distributions for the different model parameters. First, default priors were used in the model to enable comparison of model outputs between study regions. Thereafter, country-specific priors based on expert opinion or historical data were used in the model, to study the influence of the priors on the results and to obtain country-specific estimates. The STOC free model calculates a posterior value for the model parameters (e.g. herd-level test sensitivity and specificity, probability of introduction of infection) and a predicted probability of infection. The probability of freedom from infection was computed as one minus the probability of infection. For dairy herds that were considered free from infection within their own CP, the predicted probabilities of freedom were very high for all study regions ranging from 0.98 to 1.00, regardless of the use of default or country-specific priors. The priors did have more influence on two of the model parameters, herd-level sensitivity and the probability of remaining infected, due to the low prevalence and incidence of BVDV in the study regions. The advantage of STOC free model compared to scenario tree modelling, the reference method, is that actual data from the CP can be used and estimates are easily updated when new data becomes available.

Monitoring udder health on routinely collected census data: Evaluating the short- to mid-term consequences of implementing selective dry cow treatment.

In 2013, the preventive use of antimicrobials in Dutch livestock was prohibited, including a ban on the blanket application of antimicrobial dry cow treatment (BDCT). Since then, selective dry cow treatment (SDCT) has become the standard approach. In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of the ban on BDCT and the extent of the subsequent adoption of SDCT on antimicrobial usage (AMU) and udder health on Dutch dairy farms. In the Dutch cattle health surveillance system, AMU for dry cow treatment (AMUDCT), AMU for intramammary treatment at any point in time (AMUIMM), and udder health indicators are routinely and continuously monitored. This provided the opportunity to study associations among SDCT, udder health, and AMU on census data of approximately 17,000 dairy herds, with about 1.67 million cows in total (>2 yr old) at one moment in time in the period from 2013 until 2017. Six udder health parameters were evaluated using multivariable population-averaged generalized estimating equation models. The year in which the ban on BDCT was introduced (2013) was compared with the period thereafter (2014-2017). Additionally, AMUIMM and AMUDCT were included as independent variables to evaluate whether the extent to which SDCT was implemented on the herd level was associated with udder health. Demographic parameters were included as potential confounders. Since the ban on BDCT, overall declines of 63% in AMUDCT and 15% in AMUIMM were observed. The raw data show an improvement in 5 out of 6 evaluated udder health parameters between 2013 and 2017. Nevertheless, the multivariable model results showed that the period since the ban on BDCT was associated with a small but significant increase in the percentage of cows with high somatic cell count (HSCC) and new HSCC (+0.41% and +0.06%, respectively). Additionally, the probability of belonging to the group of herds with more than 25% of primiparous cows having HSCC during the start of lactation increased slightly, associated with the period after which BDCT was banned (odds ratio = 1.08). The probability of belonging to the group of herds with more than 25% cows having a persistent HSCC during the dry period was not affected and bulk milk somatic cell count showed a slight but significant reduction. The only udder health parameter that notably worsened during the study period was the probability of belonging to the group of herds with more than 25% of multiparous cows with a new HSCC after the dry period, during the start of lactation (odds ratio = 1.23). In herds where the farmer decided not to apply any dry cow therapy (≈20% of all herds), all udder health parameters were poorer compared with herds in which dry cow therapy was applied to some extent. The ban on BDCT and implementation of SDCT in the Netherlands was associated with a considerable reduction in AMU without a major impairment in udder health at the national level. Although negative effects of changed dry cow management were observed in some herds, we conclude that SDCT can be introduced without substantial negative effects on udder health.

Effectiveness and Cost Efficiency of Different Surveillance Components for Proving Freedom and Early Detection of Disease: Bluetongue Serotype 8 in Cattle as Case Study for Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

Quick detection and recovery of country's freedom status remain a constant challenge in animal health surveillance. The efficacy and cost efficiency of different surveillance components in proving the absence of infection or (early) detection of bluetongue serotype 8 in cattle populations within different countries (the Netherlands, France, Belgium) using surveillance data from years 2006 and 2007 were investigated using an adapted scenario tree model approach. First, surveillance components (sentinel, yearly cross-sectional and passive clinical reporting) within each country were evaluated in terms of efficacy for substantiating freedom of infection. Yearly cross-sectional survey and passive clinical reporting performed well within each country with sensitivity of detection values ranging around 0.99. The sentinel component had a sensitivity of detection around 0.7. Secondly, how effective the components were for (early) detection of bluetongue serotype 8 and whether syndromic surveillance on reproductive performance, milk production and mortality data available from the Netherlands and Belgium could be of added value were evaluated. Epidemic curves were used to estimate the timeliness of detection. Sensitivity analysis revealed that expected within-herd prevalence and number of herds processed were the most influential parameters for proving freedom and early detection. Looking at the assumed direct costs, although total costs were low for sentinel and passive clinical surveillance components, passive clinical surveillance together with syndromic surveillance (based on reproductive performance data) turned out most cost-efficient for the detection of bluetongue serotype 8. To conclude, for emerging or re-emerging vectorborne disease that behaves such as bluetongue serotype 8, it is recommended to use passive clinical and syndromic surveillance as early detection systems for maximum cost efficiency and sensitivity. Once an infection is detected and eradicated, cross-sectional screening for substantiating freedom of infection and sentinel for monitoring the disease evolution are recommended.

Surveillance of cattle health in the Netherlands: Monitoring trends and developments using routinely collected cattle census data.

Since 2002, a national cattle health surveillance system (CHSS) is in place that consists of several surveillance components. The CHSS combines enhanced passive reporting, diagnostic and post-mortem examinations, random surveys for prevalence estimation of endemic diseases and quarterly data analysis. The aim of the data-analysis component, which is called the Trend Analysis Surveillance Component (TASC), is to monitor trends and developments in cattle health using routine census data. The challenges that were faced during the development of TASC and the merits of this surveillance component are discussed, which might be of help to those who want to develop a monitoring and surveillance system that includes data analysis. When TASC was developed, there were process-oriented challenges and analytical related issues that had to be solved. Process-oriented challenges involved data availability, confidentiality, quality, uniformity and economic value of the data. Analytical issues involved data validation, aggregation and modeling. Eventually, the results had to provide information on cattle health that was intuitive to the stakeholders and that could support decision making. Within TASC, both quarterly analysis on census data and, on demand, additional in-depth analysis are performed. The key monitoring indicators that are analyzed as part of TASC all relate to cattle health and involve parameters such as mortality, fertility, udder health and antimicrobial usage. Population-Averaged Generalized Estimating Equations, with the appropriate distribution (i.e. Gaussian, Poisson, Negative Binomial or Binomial) and link function (independent, log or logit), are used for analysis. Both trends in time and associations between cattle health indicators and potential confounders are monitored, discussed and reported to the stakeholders on a quarterly level. The flexibility of the in-depth analyses provides the possibility to conduct additional analyses when anomalies in trends of cattle health occur or when developments in the cattle industry need further investigation. In addition, part of the budget for the in-depth analysis can also be used to improve the models or add new data sources. The TASC provides insight in cattle health parameters, it visualizes trends in time, can be used to support or nuance signals that are detected in one of the other surveillance components and can provide warnings or initiate changes in policy when unfavorable trends occur.

Effect of different scenarios for selective dry-cow therapy on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics.

The goal of dry-cow therapy (DCT) is to reduce the prevalence of intramammary infections (IMI) by eliminating existing IMI at drying off and preventing new IMI from occurring during the dry period. Due to public health concerns, however, preventive use of antimicrobials has become questionable. In this study, we evaluated the effects of 8 scenarios for selecting animals for DCT, taking into account variation in parity and cow-level somatic cell count (SCC) at drying off. The aim of this study was to evaluate udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics at the herd level when using different scenarios for selecting cows for DCT. To enable calculation and comparison of the effects of different scenarios to select cows for DCT in an "average" herd, we created an example herd, with a virtual herd size of 100 dairy cows to be calving during a year. Udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics were evaluated during the dry period and the first 100 d in lactation, the period during which the greatest effect of DCT is expected. This leads to an estimated 13,551 cow-days at risk during a year in a 100-cow dairy herd. In addition to a blanket DCT (BDCT) scenario, we developed 7 scenarios to select cows for DCT based on SCC. The scenarios covered a range of possible approaches to select low-SCC cows for DCT, all based on cow-level SCC thresholds on the last milk recording before drying off. The incidence rate of clinical mastitis in the example herd varied from 11.6 to 14.5 cases of clinical mastitis per 10,000 cow-days at risk in the different scenarios, and the prevalence of subclinical mastitis varied from 38.8% in scenario 1 (BDCT) to 48.3% in scenario 8. Total antimicrobial usage for DCT and clinical mastitis treatment varied over the scenarios from 1.27 (scenario 8) to 3.15 animal daily dosages (BDCT), leading to a maximum reduction in antimicrobial usage of 60% for scenario 8 compared with BDCT. The total costs for each of the scenarios showed little variation, varying from €4,893 for scenario 5 to €5,383 for scenario 8. The effect of selective DCT compared with BDCT on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics is influenced by the SCC criteria used to select cows for DCT. Scenario 2 resulted in the lowest increases in clinical and subclinical mastitis compared with BDCT. The greatest reduction in antimicrobial usage was achieved under scenario 8. From an economic perspective, lowest costs were achieved with scenario 5. Drying off dairy cows with antimicrobials has an effect on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics.

Evaluation of the epidemiological and economic consequences of control scenarios for bovine viral diarrhea virus in dairy herds.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an important endemic infection. However, no information was available on whether it would be economically beneficial to implement a national control program in the Netherlands. Therefore, a stochastic simulation model was developed in which control scenarios were added to compare the epidemiological and economic consequences of BVDV control in Dutch dairy herds in the next 10 yr. In the epidemiological part of the model, herds could be classified as susceptible, infectious, recovered, or vaccinated. The outputs of the epidemiological module served as input for the economic module. Net costs that could be attributed to bovine viral diarrhea consisted of production losses, costs for testing, and culling persistently infected cattle in the present voluntary Dutch BVDV control program and costs for vaccination. Four different control scenarios were simulated, involving testing and culling of persistently infected (based on serum or ear-notch testing), and monitoring BVDV statuses and vaccination and were derived from BVDV control programs that are currently executed in Europe. The costs and benefits of BVDV control in the current situation and in each of the simulated control scenarios were evaluated assuming an annual discount rate of 2%. The model estimated a mean BVDV herd prevalence of 18.0% in 2014 and showed a slightly decreasing prevalence over time. The outputs seemed realistic for the present situation in the Netherlands when compared with actual survey data. The average annual net costs associated with bovine viral diarrhea were estimated at €27.8 million for the dairy industry. Two control scenarios were beneficial in controlling BVDV during the study period (between 2015 and 2025). In the scenario where tracing and removing of PI animals and monitoring of the subsequent status was obligatory, the benefit to cost (B/C) ratio was 1.5 (€1.5 benefit for each invested euro). In the scenario in which the BVDV status of all herds was determined, followed by voluntary measures before control measures became obligatory, the B/C ratio was 1.1. The B/C ratio of the scenarios included could be even higher when it was assumed that nondairy herds participated in the control program as well. The model provided the opportunity to compare the effect of voluntary and mandatory control scenarios on the BVDV prevalence and costs and benefits relative to the current situation in the Netherlands. The model was used to support policy makers in their decisions about a BVDV control program.

Schmallenberg virus in Dutch dairy herds: potential risk factors for high within-herd seroprevalence and malformations in calves, and its impact on productivity.

In November 2011, the new orthobunyavirus Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was identified in dairy cows that had induced fever, drop in milk production and diarrhoea in the Netherlands (Muskens et al., 2012. Tijdschrift voor Diergeneeskunde 137, 112-115) and a drop in milk production in cows in Northwestern Germany (Hoffmann et al., 2012. Emerging Infectious Diseases 18 (3), 469-472), in August/September 2011. This study aimed at quantifying risk factors for high within-herd prevalence of SBV and SBV-induced malformations in newborn calves in dairy herds in the Netherlands. Additionally, the within-herd impact of SBV infection on mortality rates and milk production was estimated. A case-control design was used, including 75 clinically affected case herds and 74 control herds. Control herds were selected based on absence of malformations in newborn calves and anomalies in reproductive performance. SBV-specific within-herd seroprevalences were estimated. Risk factors for high within-herd SBV seroprevalence (>50%) and the probability of malformed newborn calves in a herd were quantified. In addition, within-herd impact of SBV with regard to milk production and mortality was estimated. Animal-level seroprevalence was 84.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 70.8-92.3) in case herds and 75.8% (95% CI: 67.5-82.5) in control herds. Control herds that were completely free from SBV were not present in the study. Herds that were grazed in 2011 had an increased odds (OR 9.9; 95% CI: 2.4-41.2)) of a high seroprevalence (>50%) compared to herds that were kept indoors. Also, when grazing was applied in 2011, the odds of malformations in newborn calves tended to be 2.6 times higher compared to herds in which cattle were kept indoors. Incidence of malformations in newborn calves at herd level was associated with both within-herd seroprevalence and clinical expression of the disease in adult cattle. The rate of vertical transmission of SBV to the fetus once a dam gets infected seemed low. A total of 146 stillborn or malformed calves were submitted by 65 farmers during the study period, of which 19 were diagnosed as SBV-positive based on pathological investigation and/or RT-qPCR testing of brain tissue. Based on these results combined with calving data from these herds we roughly estimated that at least 0.5% of the calves born between February and September 2012 have been infected by SBV. A drop in milk production was observed between the end of August 2011 and the first half of September (week 35-36), indicating the acute phase of the epidemic. During a 4-week period in which SBV infection was expected to have occurred, the total loss in milk production in affected dairy herds was around 30-51 kg per cow. SBV had no or limited impact on mortality rates which was as expected given the relatively mild expression of SBV in adult cows and the low incidence of malformations in newborn calves.

Improving bovine udder health: a national mastitis control program in the Netherlands.

Because of increasing bulk milk somatic cell counts and continuous clinical mastitis problems in a substantial number of herds, a national mastitis control program was started in 2005 to improve udder health in the Netherlands. The program started with founding the Dutch Udder Health Centre (UGCN), which had the task to coordinate the program. The program consisted of 2 parts: a research part and a knowledge-transfer part, which were integrated as much as possible. The knowledge-transfer part comprised 2 communication strategies: a central and a peripheral approach. The central approach was based on educating farmers using comprehensive science-based and rational argumentation about mastitis prevention and included on-farm study group meetings. Comprehensive education materials were developed for farmers that were internally motivated to improve udder health. In the peripheral approach it was tried to motivate farmers to implement certain management measures using nontechnical arguments. Mass media campaigns were used that focused on one single aspect of mastitis prevention. These communication strategies, as well as an integrated approach between various stakeholders and different scientific disciplines were used to reach as many farmers as possible. It should be noted that, because this intervention took place at a national level, no control group was available, as it would be impossible to isolate farmers from all forms of communication for 5 years. Based on several studies executed during and after the program, however, the results suggest that udder health seemed to have improved on a national level during the course of the program from 2005 to 2010. Within a cohort of dairy herds monitored during the program, the prevalence of subclinical mastitis did not change significantly (23.0 in 2004 vs. 22.2 in 2009). The incidence rate of clinical mastitis, however, decreased significantly, from 33.5 to 28.1 quarter cases per 100 cow years at risk. The most important elements of the farmers' mindset toward mastitis control also changed favorably. The simulated costs of mastitis per farm were reduced compared with a situation in which the mastitis would not have changed, with € 400 per year. When this amount is extrapolated to all Dutch farms, the sector as a whole reduced the total costs of mastitis by € 8 million per year. It is difficult to assign the improved udder health completely to the efforts of the program due to the lack of a control group. Nevertheless, investing € 8 million by the Dutch dairy industry in a 5-yr national mastitis control program likely improved udder health and seemed to pay for itself financially.

Lungworm outbreaks in adult dairy cows: estimating economic losses and lessons to be learned.

Two lungworm outbreaks in dairy herds were investigated in order to estimate the resulting economic costs. On the two farms, with 110 and 95 cows, total costs were estimated at €159 and €167 per cow, respectively. Overall, milk production reduced by 15 to 20 per cent during the outbreaks. Five cows died on one farm, while on the other farm seven cows died as a result of the lungworm outbreak. On one farm, 51.7 per cent of the total costs was due to reduced milk production and 33.1 per cent was due to disposal of dead animals. On the other farm, it was 36.3 and 50.9 per cent, respectively. The remaining 13 to 15 per cent of the total costs were due to extra inseminations, laboratory diagnosis and treatments. The history and development of the outbreaks are described. One lesson from these outbreaks is that recognising that potentially lungworm-naïve animals are to be introduced into the adult herd allows for timely measures (for example, vaccination) to prevent a lungworm outbreak.

Bioeconomic modeling of lactational antimicrobial treatment of new bovine subclinical intramammary infections caused by contagious pathogens.

This study determined the direct and indirect epidemiologic and economic effects of lactational treatment of new bovine subclinical intramammary infections (IMI) caused by contagious pathogens using an existing bioeconomic model. The dynamic and stochastic model simulated the dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and Escherichia coli during lactation and the dry period in a 100-cow dairy herd during 1 quota year. Input parameters on cure were obtained from recent Dutch field data. The costs of clinical IMI, subclinical IMI, and intervention were calculated into the combined total annual net costs of IMI per herd. The cost effectiveness of 4 scenarios with lactational intervention was determined; scenarios included no intervention, treatment after 1 mo of infection, treatment after 2 mo of infection, and treatment after 1 mo of infection and culling of uncured cows after 2 mo of infection. Model behavior was observed for variation in parameter input values. Compared with no lactational intervention, lactational intervention of new subclinical IMI resulted in fewer clinical flare ups, less transmission within the herd, and much lower combined total annual net costs of IMI in dairy herds. Antimicrobial treatment of IMI after 1 mo of infection and culling of uncured cows after 2 mo of infection resulted in the lowest costs, whereas treatment after 2 mo of infection was associated with the highest costs between the scenarios with intervention. Changing the probability of cure resulted in a nonlinear change in the cumulative incidence of IMI cases and associated costs. Lactational treatment was able to prevent IMI epidemics in dairy herds at high transmission rates of Strep. uberis, Strep. dysgalactiae, and E. coli. Lactational treatment did not limit the spread of Staph. aureus at high transmission rates, although the associated costs were lower compared with no intervention. To improve udder health in a dairy herd, lactational treatment of contagious subclinical IMI must therefore be preceded by management measures that lower the transmission rate. Lactational treatment of environmental subclinical IMI seemed less cost effective. Detection of subclinical IMI needs improvement to be able to most effectively treat subclinical IMI caused by contagious pathogens during lactation.

Economic and epidemiological evaluation of Salmonella control in Dutch dairy herds.

This paper presents an analysis of a Salmonella control program for Dutch dairy herds. Salmonella control strategies were evaluated using a computer-based model consisting of an epidemiological module and an economics module. The epidemiological module is a state transition model of the infectivity of a herd, with the unit of analysis being the individual farm. The probability of a herd going from one state in the model to another state was derived from biological characteristics of Salmonella infections in dairy herds, and the presence or absence of risk factors. The economics module was based on partial budgeting. Control measures were modeled as influencing the risk factors. Amongst the measures considered were the prohibition of transporting potentially infectious animals and manure to farms, the culling of chronically infected animals, and herd management measures such as separate housing of groups of animal that differ in age. Alternative strategies, both compulsory and obligatory, were defined and evaluated concerning the reduction of prevalence of infected herds, the cost of a strategy, and cost-effectiveness. Results of the model suggested that a compulsory control strategy which included culling chronically infected animals and prohibiting the transport of potentially infected animals reduces the prevalence of Salmonella positive herds considerably, and was most cost-effective. Adding hygienic measures and a ban on the transport of animal manure further reduces prevalence, but only slightly, and with substantially more costs.

Seroprevalence of bluetongue serotype 8 in cattle in the Netherlands in spring 2007, and its consequences.

A cross-sectional study was carried out in spring 2007, at the end of the first bluetongue outbreak season, to determine the geographical spread of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (btv-8) infection in cattle in the Netherlands and the consequences for some production parameters. Blood samples from cattle submitted to the laboratory of the Dutch Animal Health Service for other voluntary and obligatory health programmes were tested serologically for btv-8. In total, 37,073 samples were tested and 659 (1.78 per cent) were seropositive. The samples came from 5436 herds, of which 45 per cent of herds had only one sample submitted from them. The prevalence was highest in the south of the country, where the outbreak had started, and decreased towards the north. In 340 herds more than 50 per cent of cattle were tested, of which 156 herds were located in infected compartments, and in 37 of these herds (10.9 per cent) at least one positive cow was detected. The average within-herd prevalence in the 37 herds was 39.3 per cent: 2.2 per cent in 11 dairy herds, 68.4 per cent in 20 small-scale herds and 14 per cent in four suckler cow herds. The prevalence differed significantly between herd types but did not show a geographical trend. The average net return for milk production amounted to euro2417/cow/year and it decreased significantly on average by euro48/cow/year in the bluetongue-infected dairy herds during the bluetongue period. On the small-scale farms, the incidence of mortality increased by 3.2 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 1.2 to 9.1) times in the infected herds during the bluetongue period, but the voluntary culling rate decreased by a factor of 2.3 (95 per cent CI 1.1 to 4.8).

Pooled fecal culture sampling for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis at different herd sizes and prevalence.

A stochastic spreadsheet model was developed to obtain estimates of the costs of whole herd testing on dairy farms for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) with pooled fecal samples. The optimal pool size was investigated for 2 scenarios, prevalence (a low-prevalence herd [< or = 5%] and a high-prevalence herd [> 5%]) and for different herd sizes (100-, 250-, 500- and 1,000-cow herds). All adult animals in the herd were sampled, and the samples of the individuals were divided into equal sized pools. When a pool tested positive, the manure samples of the animals in the pool were tested individually. The individual samples from a negative pool were assumed negative and not tested individually. Distributions were used to model the uncertainty about the sensitivity of the fecal culture at farm level and Map prevalence. The model randomly allocated a disease status to the cows (not shedding, low Map shedder, moderate Map shedder, and heavy Map shedder) on the basis of the expected prevalence in the herd. Pooling was not efficient in 100-cow and 250-cow herds with low prevalence because the probability to detect a map infection in these herds became poor (53% and 88%) when samples were pooled. When samples were pooled in larger herds, the probability to detect at least 1 (moderate to heavy) shedder was > 90%. The cost reduction as a result of pooling varied from 43% in a 100-cow herd with a high prevalence to 71% in a 1,000-cow herd with a low prevalence. The optimal pool size increased with increasing herd size and varied from 3 for a 500-cow herd with a low prevalence to 5 for a 1,000-cow herd with a high prevalence.

An economic model for on-farm decision support of management to prevent infectious disease introduction into dairy farms.

A more-closed farming system can be a good starting point for eradication of infectious diseases from within a herd. The economic implications of a more-closed farming system will not always be obvious to farmers. The management decisions are related to different parts of the farm and are farm-specific. To support these decisions, a model was developed of the economic consequences of a more-closed system (a simple static and deterministic design was used). The risk factors in the model were based solely on bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1) but losses due to introduction of BVDV, L. hardjo, and S. dublin were added to the model. The model was verified and partly validated and a sensitivity analysis was done. The cost to one 55-cow dairy farm that refrained from purchasing cattle, provided protective clothing to professional visitors and a temporary employee, and built and maintained a double fence around 6 ha of land to prevent over-the-fence contacts was Dfl. 4495 over 5 years. The probability of disease introduction was decreased by 74%. The prevented losses for disease introduction amounted to Dfl. 7033 over 5 years (net benefits of Dfl. 2538 over 5 years).A more-closed system would be still beneficial when a sanitary barrier was used instead of just protective clothing, when the probability of introduction of infectious diseases was decreased, and when odds ratios in the model were replaced by more-conservative relative risks. The benefits became negative when a farm had to build and maintain a double fence around 12 ha instead of 6 ha, when the probability of introduction of all diseases was decreased by 50%, and when the estimations were based solely on BHV1.

[Risk and economics of disease introduction to dairy farms]. / Risico en economie van insleep van ziekten op melkveebedrijven.

A more closed farming system will enhance the success of disease eradication programmes, because the introduction or re-introduction of infectious diseases is less likely. The objective of the study was to obtain input for the development of an on-farm decision support model to calculate the economic consequences of a more closed farming system. The input was based on bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV1), since there were numerous data on this disease, but a more closed farming system will prevent introduction of other diseases as well (i.e. bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV), L. hardjo, and S. dublin). Direct animal contacts, such as purchase of cattle, participation in cattle shows, and cattle that escape and mingle with other cattle, were found to be important risk factors for the introduction of BHV1. Furthermore, the use of protective farm clothing was found to be an important preventive factor. The effect of an IBR outbreak at an IBR-free farm on milk production caused limited losses of on average 0.9 kg per cow per day during 9 weeks, but the variability was high (95% CI 0-2 kg). Nine percent of Dutch IBR-free dairy farms that were also at risk for BVDV, L. hardjo or S. dublin had one introduction per year of one of these four diseases. All these results were incorporated in the economic model. Management measures to reduce the probability of introduction of BHV1, the costs of these measures, and the risk reduction after these measures were obtained from other sources. The calculations showed that the implementation of a more closed system will be profitable for most farms. The profitability will increase when a farm is at risk for more diseases, but will decrease when farms are limited in their facilities to rear replacement heifers or when a large proportion of pasture adjoins pasture of other cattle farms.

[Introduction of BHV1 on dairy farms. Risk assessment by cattle farmers and veterinarians]. / Insleep van IBR op melkveebedrijven. De beoordeling van de risico's van veehouders en dierenartsen.

A study is being carried out at Wageningen Agricultural University together with, among others, the Animal Health Service to determine the possibilities and economic consequences of a more closed farming system for (Dutch) dairy farms. Three identical workshops, held in the evening, were organized as part of the study. The opinion of farmers and their veterinarians on the importance of risk factors for the introduction of diseases on a farm was determined, using Bovine Herpes Virus type 1 (BHV1) as an example. In total, 27 farmers and 13 veterinarians participated in the workshops and completed a computerized questionnaire that was based on Adapted Conjoint Analysis (ACA). The results of the farmers and veterinarians were compared. Both farmers and veterinarians seemed well aware of the risk of direct animal contacts for introduction of BHV1. Farmers thought visitors to be of more risk than veterinarians. By making use of information obtained from the ACA workshops, it will be possible to improve the advice given to different groups in the dairy sector.

Cost-benefit analysis of vaccination against paratuberculosis in dairy cattle.

Paratuberculosis is an infectious and incurable disease which causes considerable economic losses in dairy cattle, due mainly to premature disposal and losses of milk production. In 1984 the Animal Health Service North-Netherlands started a vaccination trial in which young calves were vaccinated once, to test whether vaccination reduced the production losses and whether the overall costs of vaccination were outweighed by the benefits. Vaccination against paratuberculosis reduced the number of clinically infected animals by almost 90 per cent. It also reduced the numbers of subclinically infected animals and animals with a positive histological and/or bacteriological test result. Although vaccination did not prevent losses in milk production, it reduced the infection pressure and the clinical signs of the disease. Partial budgeting showed that vaccination against paratuberculosis was highly profitable. The costs of vaccination were US$15 per cow and the benefits (total returns minus costs) were US$142 per cow.