Global transboundary transmission path and risk of Mpox revealed with Least Cost Path model.

OBJECTIVES: The recent surge of Mpox outbreaks in multiple countries has garnered global attention. As of July 12, 2023, there have been 88,288 reported cases of Mpox worldwide. Although genetic variation was not found to be the cause of the epidemic outbreak, the reasons for its rapid spread remain unclear. METHODS: Using the niche method, this study identified high-risk regions for Mpox and determined that human factors are the primary contributors to global risks. To further investigate, a travel network resistance surface was created based on various modes of transportation and was combined with sea, airline, highway, and railway routes to construct the least cost path for human travel networks in different risk areas. RESULTS: The results indicated that high-risk regions for Mpox are mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, with large risk ranges and high-risk values. The least cost path revealed three primary transmission paths rely on developed transportation networks, including internal transmission in North America, Europe-Africa, and Europe-Asia-Africa. These findings suggest that human activities, facilitated by developed travel networks, remain the main contributing factor to the spread. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, based on the Mpox epidemic report, this study conducted risk prediction and driving factor analysis on Mpox. The research results indicate that human use of transportation for long-distance activities is a key factor leading to the rapid spread of the virus. Subsequently, we focused on studying the global transmission pathways of Mpox and revealed several transmission pathways with high global population migration rates by constructing the LCPs between different high-risk areas. This study also emphasizes the importance of applying early monitoring data of Mpox to model risk prediction in controlling emerging infectious diseases, providing a new perspective for controlling Mpox and similar diseases.

The past, present, and future of predator-prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm-endotherm niche overlap.

Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm-endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator-prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm-ectotherm pair typifying a predator-prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = -1.82%, 4.5 = -4.62%, 8.5 = -7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm-endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems.

Comparative multi-locus assessment of modern Asian newts ( Cynops, Paramesotriton, and Pachytriton: Salamandridae) in southern China suggests a shared biogeographic history.

Evolutionary biologists are always interested in deciphering the geographic context of diversification, therefore they introduced the concept of comparative phylogeography, which helps to identify common mechanisms that contribute to shared genetic structures among organisms from the same region. Here, we used multi-locus genetic data along with environmental data to investigate shared phylogeographic patterns among three Asian-endemic newt genera, Cynops, Paramesotriton and Pachytriton, which occurred in montane/submontane streams or ponds in southern China. Our 222 samples from 78 localities covered the entire range of the three genera and represented the largest dataset of this group to date. We reconstructed matrilineal genealogies from two protein-coding, mitochondrial genes, and gene network from two nuclear genes. We also estimated divergence times of major cladogenetic events and used occurrence data to evaluate niche difference and similarity between lineages. Our results revealed a common basal split in all three genera that corresponds to the separation of two geographic terrains of southern China. Those ancient divergence occurred during middle to late Miocene and likely correlate with paleoclimatic fluctuations caused by the uplift of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QTP). Particularly, the strengthening and weakening of Asian summer monsoons during the Miocene may have profoundly impacted southern China and led to repeatedly vicariance in those newts. However, despite differences in realized niches between lineages, there is no evidence for divergence of fundamental niches. Preservation of old newt matriline lineages in mountains of southern China suggests that the region acts as both museums and cradles of speciation. Based on those results, we advocate a multi-pronged protection strategy for newts in the three genera.

Assessment of drivers of spatial genetic variation of a ground-dwelling bird species and its implications for conservation.

In modern wildlife ecology, spatial population genetic methods are becoming increasingly applied. Especially for animal species in fragmented landscapes, preservation of gene flow becomes a high priority target in order to restore genetic diversity and prevent local extinction. Within Central Europe, the Alps represent the core distribution area of the black grouse, Lyrurus tetrix. At its easternmost Alpine range, events of subpopulation extinction have already been documented in the past decades. Molecular data combined with spatial analyses can help to assess landscape effects on genetic variation and therefore can be informative for conservation management. Here, we addressed whether the genetic pattern of the easternmost Alpine black grouse metapopulation system is driven by isolation by distance or isolation by resistance. Correlative ecological niche modeling was used to assess geographic distances and landscape resistances. We then applied regression-based approaches combined with population genetic analyses based on microsatellite data to disentangle effects of isolation by distance and isolation by resistance among individuals and subpopulations. Although population genetic analyses revealed overall low levels of genetic differentiation, the ecological niche modeling showed subpopulations to be clearly delimited by habitat structures. Spatial genetic variation could be attributed to effects of isolation by distance among individuals and isolation by resistance among subpopulations, yet unknown effects might factor in. The easternmost subpopulation was the most differentiated, and at the same time, immigration was not detected; hence, its long-term survival might be threatened. Our study provides valuable insights into the spatial genetic variation of this small-scale metapopulation system of Alpine black grouse.

An assessment of the impact of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc Pygathrix cinerea using an ecological niche model.

Climate change can have many negative impacts on wildlife species, and species with narrow distributions are more likely to be significantly affected. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling for species (MaxEnt software) as well as species occurrence data and climate variables to assess the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the grey-shanked douc-an endemic and rare primate species of Vietnam. We used climate data at the current time and two future times (2050 and 2070). Climate data were generated for two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, together with three climate models ACCESS1-0, GFDL-CM3, and MPI-ESM-LR. We predicted that the distribution of the grey-shanked douc would be sharply reduced by the effects of climate change. The species' suitable distribution range in the future tended to shift toward the center of their current range and to higher mountainous areas. A larger suitable area, in particular highly suitable areas to the north and west of its current potential distribution range, would become less suitable or even unsuitable in 2050 and 2070. Kon Cha Rang Nature Reserve and Kon Ka Kinh National Park should be given priority in conservation of the grey-shanked douc because they now support important populations of the species and are in the highly suitable area remaining for the species in the future. The establishment of a new protected area for grey-shanked douc conservation should be considered in Kon Plong District, Kom Tum Province, which will be the center of the species distribution range.

Potential high-quality growing tea regions in Ecuador: an alternative cash crop for Ecuadorian small landholders.

BACKGROUND: Agriculture is the main means of subsistence for most of the population in developing countries. Crops that can increase their value with in situ processing have a big impact on the small landholder's economics. Moreover, crops such as coffee and cocoa beans have been very important for Ecuadorian farmers. In this study, we wanted to analyze if the climatic conditions exist for growing high-quality tea in Ecuador and determine the areas that will be less affected by global climate change in the future. RESULTS: We used a GIS (geographic information systems) based analysis, together with ecological niche modeling to determine areas in Ecuador where Ceylon and Nilgiris tea varieties could be grown, which will maintain similar ecological conditions in the future, and have a high agricultural aptitude. In total, there are more than 150 000 ha in Ecuador that could be converted to high-quality tea plantations, most of them in the coastal provinces, with some specific areas in the Andean foothills. CONCLUSION: Ecuador has a significant amount of land with the potential to grow high-quality tea, with no significant ecological niche modifications due to climate change in the long-term future. Tea is a viable and potentially highly profitable crop for small landholders and should be considered by local stakeholders. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Identifying early modern human ecological niche expansions and associated cultural dynamics in the South African Middle Stone Age.

The archaeological record shows that typically human cultural traits emerged at different times, in different parts of the world, and among different hominin taxa. This pattern suggests that their emergence is the outcome of complex and nonlinear evolutionary trajectories, influenced by environmental, demographic, and social factors, that need to be understood and traced at regional scales. The application of predictive algorithms using archaeological and paleoenvironmental data allows one to estimate the ecological niches occupied by past human populations and identify niche changes through time, thus providing the possibility of investigating relationships between cultural innovations and possible niche shifts. By using such methods to examine two key southern Africa archaeological cultures, the Still Bay [76-71 thousand years before present (ka)] and the Howiesons Poort (HP; 66-59 ka), we identify a niche shift characterized by a significant expansion in the breadth of the HP ecological niche. This expansion is coincident with aridification occurring across Marine Isotope Stage 4 (ca. 72-60 ka) and especially pronounced at 60 ka. We argue that this niche shift was made possible by the development of a flexible technological system, reliant on composite tools and cultural transmission strategies based more on "product copying" rather than "process copying." These results counter the one niche/one human taxon equation. They indicate that what makes our cultures, and probably the cultures of other members of our lineage, unique is their flexibility and ability to produce innovations that allow a population to shift its ecological niche.