Mathematical models and analysis tools for risk assessment of unnatural epidemics: a scoping review.

Predicting, issuing early warnings, and assessing risks associated with unnatural epidemics (UEs) present significant challenges. These tasks also represent key areas of focus within the field of prevention and control research for UEs. A scoping review was conducted using databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase, from inception to 31 December 2023. Sixty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. Two types of models (data-driven and mechanistic-based models) and a class of analysis tools for risk assessment of UEs were identified. The validation part of models involved calibration, improvement, and comparison. Three surveillance systems (event-based, indicator-based, and hybrid) were reported for monitoring UEs. In the current study, mathematical models and analysis tools suggest a distinction between natural epidemics and UEs in selecting model parameters and warning thresholds. Future research should consider combining a mechanistic-based model with a data-driven model and learning to pursue time-varying, high-precision risk assessment capabilities.

To Be Frail or Not to Be Frail: This Is the Question-A Critical Narrative Review of Frailty.

Many factors have contributed to rendering frailty an emerging, relevant, and very popular concept. First, many pandemics that have affected humanity in history, including COVID-19, most recently, have had more severe effects on frail people compared to non-frail ones. Second, the increase in human life expectancy observed in many developed countries, including Italy has led to a rise in the percentage of the older population that is more likely to be frail, which is why frailty is much a more common concern among geriatricians compared to other the various health-care professionals. Third, the stratification of people according to the occurrence and the degree of frailty allows healthcare decision makers to adequately plan for the allocation of available human professional and economic resources. Since frailty is considered to be fully preventable, there are relevant consequences in terms of potential benefits both in terms of the clinical outcome and healthcare costs. Frailty is becoming a popular, pervasive, and almost omnipresent concept in many different contexts, including clinical medicine, physical health, lifestyle behavior, mental health, health policy, and socio-economic planning sciences. The emergence of the new "science of frailty" has been recently acknowledged. However, there is still debate on the exact definition of frailty, the pathogenic mechanisms involved, the most appropriate method to assess frailty, and consequently, who should be considered frail. This narrative review aims to analyze frailty from many different aspects and points of view, with a special focus on the proposed pathogenic mechanisms, the various factors that have been considered in the assessment of frailty, and the emerging role of biomarkers in the early recognition of frailty, particularly on the role of mitochondria. According to the extensive literature on this topic, it is clear that frailty is a very complex syndrome, involving many different domains and affecting multiple physiological systems. Therefore, its management should be directed towards a comprehensive and multifaceted holistic approach and a personalized intervention strategy to slow down its progression or even to completely reverse the course of this condition.

Economic sanctions and spread of infectious diseases.

Economic sanctions can induce economic crises and compromise the determinants of health. In the literature, economic crises have been found to increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks. Presumably, sanctions can increase the risk of infectious disease spreads, indirectly. However, non-economic factors can fuel the adverse impact of sanctions, including political consequences of sanctions and civil war. We performed a systematic literature review of articles in Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and the grey literature to assess empirically the impact of economic sanctions on the spread of infectious diseases within and beyond the borders of sanctioned countries. Our review did not identify any study meeting our inclusion criteria. Most of the studies did not control for major socio-political events, particularly armed conflicts in the sanctioned countries. This discovery underscores a notable gap in the examination of the impact of economic sanctions on the propagation of infectious diseases, presenting a threat to global health. Using the social-ecological model, we hypothesize how the economic crisis resulting from economic sanctions affects determinants of health, increases the risk of the spread of infectious diseases and hinders the response capacity of health systems.

Socioeconomic disadvantage and engagement with digital contact tracing for COVID-19 in Western Sydney: A secondary analysis of surveillance data.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 outcomes were highly inequitably distributed in Australia and worldwide. The digitalisation of public health interventions offers resource-efficiency and increased capacity for pandemic responses, but risks excluding the elderly and disadvantaged, reinforcing existing inequalities. Despite this, there has been little evaluation of the determinants of uptake of digital contact tracing. This paper describes the use of digital contact tracing for COVID-19 in a population in metropolitan Sydney and the determinants of engagement in this population. METHODS: Routinely collected surveillance data for residents of Western Sydney Local Health District, returning a positive SARS-CoV-2 result between 1st August 2021 and 12th February 2022, were extracted including responses to a digital contact tracing questionnaire. Individual records were linked to area-level socioeconomic indices of disadvantage. Descriptive analyses explored characteristics of non-responders and geospatial variation. Logistic regression was undertaken to evaluate the effect of age, sex and socioeconomic disadvantage on the odds of response. RESULTS: Of the 133 055 individuals included, 130 645 (98%) were issued a digital contact tracing questionnaire, and 106 432 (81%) responded. Odds of responding were lower in males (odds ratio: 0.79), individuals aged 80+ (odds ratio: 0.17) and the most disadvantaged communities (odds ratio: 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Digital data collection for contact tracing was a scalable and efficient tool in the context of the Western Sydney Local Health District COVID-19 response. However, older people and individuals in disadvantaged communities were less likely to engage. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Responses to future pandemics should leverage the resource-efficiency of digital interventions but should avoid compounding existing health inequalities.

Historical microbiology: researching past bioevents by integrating scholarship (re)sources with paleomicrobiology assets.

The analysis of past epidemics and pandemics, either spontaneous or of human origin, may revise the physical history of microbiota and create a temporal context in our understanding regarding pathogen attributes like virulence, evolution, transmission and disease dynamics. The data of high-tech scientific methods seem reliable, but their interpretation may still be biased when tackling events of the distant past. Such endeavors should be adjusted to other cognitive resources including historical accounts reporting the events of interest and references in alien medical cultures and terminologies; the latter may contextualize them differently from current practices. Thus 'historical microbiology' emerges. Validating such resources requires utmost care, as these may be susceptible to different biases regarding the interpretation of facts and phenomena; biases partly due to methodological limitations.

Bacteria and viruses have always impacted humankind. They do this directly by causing illness or indirectly by destroying crops and threatening livestock. We can learn a lot by studying disease events of the past ­ for example, we can see how bacteria and viruses have changed over time and predict how they might change in the future. This knowledge could be important to understanding present disease events and predicting future ones. In this review, we propose the concept of 'historical microbiology', which encourages collaboration between scientists, doctors, historians and linguists to provide historical, linguistic and cultural context to our scientific understanding of diseases of the past.

The Surviral Epidemiological Early Warning System Tyrol Dashboard - System, Functionality and Findings.

BACKGROUND: Dashboards provide a good retrospective view of the development of the disease. Yet, current COVID-related dashboards typically lack the capability to predict future trends. However, this is important for health policy makers and health care providers in order to adopt meaningful containment strategies. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to present the Surviral dashboard, which allows the effective monitoring of infectious disease dynamics. METHODS: The presented dashboard comprises a wide range of information, including retrospective and prognostic data based on an agent-based simulation framework. It served as the basis for informed decision-making and planning of disease control strategies within the federal state of Tyrol. RESULTS: By visualizing the information in an understandable format, the dashboard provided a comprehensive overview of the COVID-19 situation in Tyrol and allowed for the identification of trends and patterns. CONCLUSION: The presented dashboard is a valuable tool for managing pandemics such as COVID-19. It provides a convenient and efficient way to monitor the spread of a disease and identify potential areas for intervention.

PrEP Intervention in the Mitigation of HIV/AIDS Epidemics in China via a Data-Validated Age-Structured Model.

Antiretroviral-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) treatment offers a new opportunity for protecting humans against HIV and disrupting current HIV prevention systems. However, implementing this preventive measure has been difficult due to its high cost. In this paper, we propose an age-structured model that incorporates infection ages, HAART (highly active antiretroviral therapy), and PrEP intervention. We investigate the qualitative behavior of the model and find a threshold parameter (the basic reproduction number) that determines the asymptotic stability of equilibria. We validate the model and estimate the parameters by confronting the actual HIV/AIDS data from 2004 to 2018 in China using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method. Furthermore, we investigate the PrEP intervention strategy by using incremental cost-effectiveness and average cost-effectiveness. Our work suggests that PrEP intervention based on the infection characteristics of different age groups can be an effective strategy to eradicate HIV/AIDS epidemics in China.

Overlooked sex and gender aspects of emerging infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons learned from COVID-19 to move towards health equity in pandemic response.

Sex and gender issues are especially important in emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) but are routinely overlooked despite data and practice. Each of these have an effect either directly, via the effects on vulnerability to infectious diseases, exposures to infectious pathogens, and responses to illness, and indirectly through effects on disease prevention and control programs. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the viral agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has underscored the importance of understanding the sex and gender impacts on pandemics. This review takes a broader looks at how sex and gender impact vulnerability, exposure risk, and treatment and response that affect incidence, duration, severity, morbidity, mortality, and disability of EIDs. And although EID epidemic and pandemic plans need to be "pro-women", they need to be broader and include all sex and gender factors. Incorporation of these factors are a priority at the local, national, and global policy levels to fulfil the gaps in scientific research, public health intervention programs and pharmaceutical service strengthening to reduce emerging disease inequities in the population during pandemics and epidemics. A failure to do so creates acceptance of the inequities and infringes on fairness and human rights norms.

Prediction of airborne pollen and sub-pollen particles for thunderstorm asthma outbreaks assessment.

When exposed to convective thunderstorm conditions, pollen grains can rupture and release large numbers of allergenic sub-pollen particles (SPPs). These sub-pollen particles easily enter deep into human lungs, causing an asthmatic response named thunderstorm asthma (TA). Up to now, efforts to numerically predict the airborne SPP process and to forecast the occurrence of TAs are unsatisfactory. To overcome this problem, we have developed a physically-based pollen model (DREAM-POLL) with parameterized formation of airborne SPPs caused by convective atmospheric conditions. We ran the model over the Southern Australian grass fields for 2010 and 2016 pollen seasons when four largest decadal TA epidemics happened in Melbourne. One of these TA events (in November 2016) was the worldwide most extreme one which resulted to nine deaths and hundreds of hospital patient presentations. By executing the model on a day-by-day basis in a hindcast real-time mode we predicted SPP peaks exclusively only when the four major TA outbreaks happened, thus achieving a high forecasting success rate. The proposed modelling system can be easily implemented for other geographical domains and for different pollen types.

Tudo pela hora da morte! História, epidemias e desigualdades / Everything for an arm and a leg! History, epidemics, and inequalities

Resumo Assentado na interlocução entre os campos da História e da Saúde Coletiva e provocado pela historicidade do tempo presente, este artigo propõe avanços epistêmicos na discussão sobre o término das epidemias. Para tanto, se vale de operação historiográfica em vasto corpo documental, para apontar os impactos decorrentes da Gripe Espanhola de 1918 em Botucatu, cidade do interior paulista, na perspectiva do aprofundamento das desigualdades presentes nesta localidade nas décadas subsequentes à epidemia. Conclui apontando que, para além dos efeitos imediatos provocados pelo fenômeno epidêmico, ao arrefecer na dimensão biológica, a epidemia de Gripe Espanhola seguiu seu curso, alterando condicionantes sociais e culturais, bem como incidindo sobre estruturas sócio-históricas e em nossa corporeidade, tornando-se acontecimento histórico de longa duração. Desta forma, pode-se depreender que a compreensão das forças históricas que operam nos avanços e recuos em Saúde Coletiva podem alavancar enfrentamentos concretos às iniquidades, junto à retomada de um projeto civilizatório de transformação social no país, assentado na democracia, na justiça social e na defesa radical da vida.

Abstract Based on the dialogue between the fields of History and Public Health and provoked by the historicity of the present time, this article proposes epistemic advances in the discussion about the end of epidemics. To that end, it uses a historiographical operation in a vast body of documents, to point out the impacts resulting from the Spanish Flu of 1918 in Botucatu, a city in the interior of São Paulo, from the perspective of the deepening of inequalities in this locality in the decades following the epidemic. It concludes by pointing out that, in addition to the immediate effects caused by the epidemic phenomenon, when the Spanish Flu epidemic cooled down in the biological dimension, it followed its course, altering social and cultural conditions and affecting socio-historical structures and our corporeality, becoming a long-term historical event. Thus, we can infer that understanding the historical forces that operate in the advances and setbacks in Public Health can leverage concrete confrontations with inequities, along with the resumption of a civilizing project of social transformation in the country, based on democracy, social justice, and the radical defense of life.

A epidemia da dengue no Estado do Rio de Janeiro e as ações assistenciais como estratégia para gestão de risco de desastres: estudo de caso / The dengue epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro and assistance actions as a strategy for disaster risk management: a case study

Epidemias de dengue e as estratégias de preparação adequadas para enfrentá-las têm sido um desafio constante. A partir do estudo do modelo assistencial desenvolvido em 2008 no Rio de Janeiro, buscou-se compreender as intervenções que abrandaram seus efeitos, e assim (re)pensar os planos de contingência e outras ações de gestão de risco de desastres. O objetivo geral foi sintetizar evidências a partir do modelo assistencial implementado, para sustentar o desenvolvimento de planos de contingência frente à epidemia de dengue, voltados a atenção à saúde. Com objetivos específicos de: Descrever os desafios para a resposta à epidemia de dengue no estado do Rio de Janeiro. Analisar o modelo assistencial desenvolvido para resposta à epidemia de dengue. Discutir as ações de gestão de risco de desastres, voltadas para a resposta a epidemias de dengue. O método foi Estudo de caso único, e qualitativo e com fontes de evidência de entrevistas semiestruturadas, documentos da imprensa não oficial (jornais) e oficial, documentos administrativos, arquivos através dos TabNet, documentos iconográficos e documentos do acervo da pesquisadora e fontes de informação técnico-científica de bases de dados. Para tratar os dados utilizou-se o software Iramuteq®, análise documental e seleção de estudos por Revisão Sistemática. Epidemias de dengue, na dependência de sua magnitude, das vulnerabilidades socioeconômicas e ambientais, da infestação vetorial, da circulação viral e da capacidade de resposta local, têm potencial para conturbar as rotinas dos serviços de saúde. Os desafios trazem a necessidade de adoção de ações de gestão de risco de desastres, que se desdobram em resiliência social. A análise do modelo assistencial descortinou as ações para a reorganização assistencial, sua possível reprodução em outras epidemias e sua adoção nos planos de contingência, importante ferramenta de planejamento, que congrega os esforços e contribuições dos entes públicos e privados, além da participação popular. A atenção à saúde nas epidemias, parte da organização da rede básica, apoiada por políticas públicas e planos de contingência, protagonizados pelos gestores públicos, construídos com a participação da sociedade e dos diversos setores públicos e privados e conduzidos pelo setor saúde.

Dengue epidemics and adequate preparedness strategies to face them have been a constant challenge. From the study of the care model developed in 2008 in Rio de Janeiro, we sought to understand the interventions that mitigated its effects, and thus (re)think contingency plans and other disaster risk management actions. The general objective was to synthesize evidence from the implemented care model, to support the development of contingency plans against the dengue epidemic, aimed at health care. With specific objectives to: Describe the challenges for the response to the dengue epidemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro. To analyze the care model developed to respond to the dengue epidemic. Discuss disaster risk management actions aimed at responding to dengue epidemics. The method was a single case study, qualitative and with sources of evidence from semi-structured interviews, documents from the unofficial (newspapers) and official press, administrative documents, files through TabNet, iconographic documents from the researcher's collection and sources of information technical-scientific databases. To treat the data, the Iramuteq® software, document analysis and selection of studies by Systematic Review were used. Dengue epidemics, depending on their magnitude, socioeconomic and environmental vulnerabilities, vector infestation, viral circulation and local response capacity, have the potential to disrupt the routines of health services. The challenges bring the need to adopt disaster risk management actions, which result in social resilience. The analysis of the care model revealed actions for care reorganization, its possible reproduction in other epidemics and its adoption in contingency plans, an important planning tool that brings together the efforts and contributions of public and private entities, in addition to popular participation. Health care in epidemics, part of the organization of the basic network, supported by public policies and contingency plans, led by public managers, built with the participation of society and the various public and private sectors and conducted by the health sector.

Las epidemias de dengue y las estrategias adecuadas de preparación para enfrentarlas han sido un desafío constante. A partir del estudio del modelo de atención desarrollado en 2008 en Río de Janeiro, buscamos comprender las intervenciones que mitigaron sus efectos, y así (re)pensar los planes de contingencia y otras acciones de gestión del riesgo de desastres. El objetivo general fue sintetizar evidencias del modelo de atención implementado, para sustentar el desarrollo de planes de contingencia frente a la epidemia de dengue, dirigidos a la atención en salud. Con objetivos específicos: Describir los desafíos para la respuesta a la epidemia de dengue en el estado de Río de Janeiro. Analizar el modelo de atención desarrollado para responder a la epidemia de dengue. Discutir las acciones de gestión del riesgo de desastres destinadas a responder a las epidemias de dengue. El método fue un estudio de caso único, cualitativo y con fuentes de evidencia de entrevistas semiestructuradas, documentos de la prensa no oficial (periódicos) y oficial, documentos administrativos, archivos a través de TabNet, documentos iconográficos y administrativos de la colección del investigador y fuentes de información técnico- bases de datos científicas. Para el tratamiento de los datos se utilizó el software Iramuteq®, análisis de documentos y selección de estudios por Revisión Sistemática. Las epidemias de dengue, dependiendo de su magnitud, vulnerabilidades socioeconómicas y ambientales, infestación de vectores, circulación viral y capacidad de respuesta local, tienen el potencial de perturbar las rutinas de los servicios de salud. Los desafíos traen consigo la necesidad de adoptar acciones de gestión del riesgo de desastres, que resulten en resiliencia social. El análisis del modelo de atención reveló acciones para la reorganización de la atención, su posible reproducción en otras epidemias y su adopción en planes de contingencia, una importante herramienta de planificación que reúne esfuerzos y contribuciones de entidades públicas y privadas, además de la participación popular. La atención en salud en epidemias, parte de la organización de la red básica, sustentada en políticas públicas y planes de contingencia, liderada por gestores públicos, construida con la participación de la sociedad y de los diversos sectores público y privado y conducida por el sector salud.

Patient allocation method in major epidemics under the situation of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment.

OBJECTIVES: Patients are classified according to the severity of their condition and graded according to the diagnosis and treatment capacity of medical institutions. This study aims to correctly assign patients to medical institutions for treatment and develop patient allocation and medical resource expansion schemes among hospitals in the medical network. METHODS: Illness severity, hospital level, allocation matching benefit, distance traveled, and emergency medical resource fairness were considered. A multi-objective planning method was used to construct a patient allocation model during major epidemics. A simulation study was carried out in two scenarios to test the proposed method. RESULTS: (1) The single-objective model obtains an unbalanced solution in contrast to the multi-objective model. The proposed model considers multi-objective problems and balances the degree of patient allocation matching, distance traveled, and fairness. (2) The non-hierarchical model has crowded resources, and the hierarchical model assigns patients to matched medical institutions. (3) In the "demand exceeds supply" situation, the patient allocation model identified additional resources needed by each hospital. CONCLUSION: Results verify the maneuverability and effectiveness of the proposed model. It can generate schemes for specific patient allocation and medical resource amplification and can serve as a quantitative decision-making tool in the context of major epidemics.

Evolving trend change during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused unimaginable damage to public health and socio-economic structures worldwide; thus, an epidemiological depiction of the global evolving trends of this disease is necessary. As of March 31, 2022, the number of cases increased gradually over the four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating the need for continuous countermeasures. The highest total cases per million and total deaths per million were observed in Europe (240,656.542) and South America (2,912.229), despite these developed countries having higher vaccination rates than other continents, such as Africa. In contrast, the lowest of the above two indices were found in undeveloped African countries, which had the lowest number of vaccinations. These data indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic is positively related to the socio-economic development level; meanwhile, the data suggest that the vaccine currently used in these continents cannot completely prevent the spread of COVID-19. Thus, rethinking the feasibility of a single vaccine to control the disease is needed. Although the number of cases in the fourth wave increased exponentially compared to those of the first wave, ~43.1% of deaths were observed during the first wave. This was not only closely linked to multiple factors, including the inadequate preparation for the initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the gradual reduction in the severity of additional variants, and the protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but this also indicated the change in the main driving dynamic in the fourth wave. Moreover, at least 12 variants were observed globally, showing a clear spatiotemporal profile, which provides the best explanation for the presence of the four waves of the pandemic. Furthermore, there was a clear shift in the trend from multiple variants driving the spread of disease in the early stage of the pandemic to a single Omicron lineage predominating in the fourth wave. These data suggest that the Omicron variant has an advantage in transmissibility over other contemporary co-circulating variants, demonstrating that monitoring new variants is key to reducing further spread. We recommend that public health measures, along with vaccination and testing, are continually implemented to stop the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mobilizing COVID-19 level public health interventions for climate breakdown is necessary.

The COVID-19 pandemic has proven that extraordinary public health measures can pivot every aspect of society. Norms, politics, economics, and business practices rapidly responded to coordinated simultaneous policies worldwide. This begs the question of why such advancements have not yet been similarly executed to reduce the short- and long-term morbidity and mortality due to environmental destruction and climate change. This article reviews various reasons explaining the discrepancy between the policies of these two health threats, using a terror management theory lens. Exploring how anthropogenic climate change potentiated the contagion and outcomes of COVID-19, the environmental determinants of health deserve increased attention in public discourse. The industry-driven response to COVID-19 also has exacerbated preexisting health inequalities and vulnerabilities, suggesting that a just transition for climate change must not repeat some of the same mistakes taken in global pandemic measures. Finally, addressing emergency health harms in ways that create increased environmental health harms is deemed iatrogenic, displacing rather than truly treating disease. Thus, a planetary health model focused on multisolving health issues is recommended for the basis of addressing COVID-19 and other health disasters.

Historia en tiempos pandémicos: covid-19 en Latinoamérica / History in pandemic times: covid-19 in Latin America

Resumen Teniendo como marco la trágica presencia de covid-19, historiadores de México, Argentina y Brasil realizan reflexiones en este texto sobre el contexto de la pandemia, así como su relación con precariedades sanitarias institucionales, estigmas persistentes y desigualdades sociales pasadas. Sus intervenciones son un registro preliminar del impacto de la pandemia en sus países. Están basadas en intervenciones presentadas en la mesa "História em tempos pandêmicos: reflexões sobre um ano de crises", realizada en junio de 2021, moderada por Marcos Cueto y organizada por el Departamento de Pesquisa em História das Ciências e da Saúde de la Casa de Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz.

Abstract Having as a framework the tragic presence of covid-19, historians from Mexico, Argentina and Brazil reflect in this text on the context of the pandemic as well as its relationship with institutional sanitary precariousness, persistent stigmas and past social inequalities. Their interventions are a preliminary record of the impact of the pandemic on their countries. They are based on interventions presented at the session "História em tempos pandêmicos: reflexões sobre um ano de crises", held in June 2021, moderated by Marcos Cueto and organized by the Departamento de Pesquisa em História das Ciências e da Saúde of the Casa de Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz.

[Overwhelming Differences at the Expense of Many Small Details]. / Eindeutige Unterschiede auf Kosten vieler kleiner Details.

McCoy's comparative study focuses on the different styles and reasonings by which the United States and Great Britain responded and continue to respond to epidemics. While disease control in Britain focused on the environment, comparatively later efforts in the United States concentrated on quarantine and control of the infected. Drawing on the concept of path dependence, McCoy argues for the continuing importance of the historical factors surrounding the emergence of the first disease control structures. In doing so, he considers the centralisation of the state, a coherent theory of disease, pressures of civil society, and the idea of the population as a social body to be crucial. However, his pleasantly lucid study inevitably omits some important research areas and questions.

Assessment of genotyping markers in the molecular characterization of a population of clinical isolates of Fusarium in Colombia. / Evaluación de marcadores de genotipificación en la caracterización molecular de una población de aislamientos clínicos de Fusarium en Colombia

INTRODUCTION: Fusarium is a very heterogeneous group of fungi, difficult to classify, with a wide range of living styles, acting as saprophytes, parasites of plants, or pathogens for humans and animals. Prevalence of clinical fusariosis and lack of effective treatments have increased the interest in the precise diagnosis, which implies a molecular characterization of Fusarium populations. OBJECTIVE: We compared different genotyping markers in their assessment of the genetic variability and molecular identification of clinical isolates of Fusarium. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated the performance of the fingerprinting produced by two random primers: M13, which amplifies a minisatellite sequence, and (GACA)4, which corresponds to a simple repetitive DNA sequence. Using the Hunter Gaston Discriminatory Index (HGDI), an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), and a Mantel test, the resolution of these markers was compared to the reference sequencing-based and PCR genotyping methods. RESULTS: The highest HGDI value was associated with the M13 marker followed by (GACA)4. AMOVA and the Mantel tests supported a strong correlation between the M13 classification and the reference method given by the partial sequencing of the transcription elongation factor 1-alpha (TEF1-α) and rDNA 28S. CONCLUSION: The strong correlation between the M13 classification and the sequencingbased reference together with its higher resolution demonstrates its adequacy for the characterization of Fusarium populations.

Avaliação da incidência e da cobertura vacinal contra o sarampo no Brasil no período de 2013 a 2018 / Assessment of incidence and coverage of measles vaccination in Brazil between 2013 and 2018

Introdução: Sarampo é uma doença exantemática infecciosa febril aguda, de transmissão respiratória, prevenível através da imunização. Recentes surtos e epidemias dessa doença ao redor do mundo e no Brasil chamam atenção. Parte do problema talvez se deva às baixas taxas de cobertura vacinal da população, causadas por diversos motivos. Objetivo: Avaliar o número de casos confirmados de sarampo e a cobertura vacinal contra o sarampo, no Brasil, no período de 2013 a 2018. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo observacional do tipo ecológico. A população foi composta por residentes no Brasil que tiveram confirmação para o sarampo, tendo como fonte de registro o sistema TABNET/DATASUS, BNS/SVS/MS, e Informe do Ministério da Saúde. Para determinar as coberturas vacinais, utilizou-se a população que tenha sido vacinada pelas vacinas tríplice viral dose 1, tríplice viral dose 2 e tetra viral, tendo como fonte de registro o sistema PNI/DATASUS. Resultados: Evidenciou-se que houve 10.971 casos de sarampo no período analisado, sendo 93,64% referentes ao ano de 2018. A Região Norte foi responsável por 92,97% de todos os casos. Houve significância estatística em relação ao tempo e evento na Região Nordeste, com valor de p de 0,032, e no estado do Mato Grosso, com valor de p de 0,041. Em relação à cobertura vacinal, viu-se que há uma tendência de queda ocorrendo nos últimos anos em todas as regiões do país. Conclusão: Observou-se queda na cobertura vacinal contra o sarampo, e, como consequência, aumento do número de casos da doença nos últimos anos.

Introduction: Measles is an acute febrile exanthematous infectious disease of respiratory transmission and preventable through vaccination. Recent outbreaks and epidemics of this disease have attracted attention worldwide and in Brazil. Part of this problem may be due to a low vaccination coverage in the population, which is caused by various reasons. Objective: To assess the number of confirmed cases of measles and the coverage of measles vaccination in Brazil between 2013 and 2018. Methods: This is an observational ecological study. The population comprised people residing in Brazil who had a confirmed measles diagnosis according to the TABNET/DATASUS and BNS/SVS/MS records, as well as reports by the Ministry of Health; vaccination coverage was determined as the population who received the following vaccines according to the PNI/DATASUS system: MMR first dose, MMR second dose, and MMRV. Results: There were 10,971 cases of measles in the analyzed period, of which 93.64% were reported in 2018. The North region was responsible for 92.97% of all cases. Time and events were significantly correlated in the Northeast region, with a p-value of 0.032, and in the state of Mato Grosso, with a p-value of 0.041. Regarding vaccination coverage, a decreasing trend was seen for recent years in all regions of the country. Conclusion: We observed a decrease in the coverage of measles vaccination and a consequent increase in the number of cases of this disease in recent years.

A pilot study using financial transactions' spatial information to define high-risk neighborhoods and distribution pattern of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Development of surveillance systems based on big data sources with spatial information is necessitated more than ever during this pandemic. Here, we present our pilot results of a new technique for the incorporation of spatial information of transactions and a vital registry of COVID-19 to evaluate the disease spread. METHODS: We merged two databases of laboratory-confirmed national COVID-19 registry of Iran and financial transactions of point-of-sale devices from February to March 2020 as our training data sources. Spatial information was used for the visualization of maps and movements of sick individuals. We used the point-of-sale devices-related guild to check for the dynamics of financial transactions and effectiveness of quarantines. FINDINGS: In the study period, 174,428 confirmed cases were in the COVID-19 registry with accompanying transactions information. In total, 13,924,982 financial transactions were performed by them, with a mean of 1.2 per day for each person. All guilds had a decreasing pattern of "risky" transactions except for grocery stores and pharmacies. The latter showed a decreasing pattern by impose of lockdowns. Different cities were the hotspot of disease transmission as many "high-risk" transactions were performed in them, among which Tehran (mainly its central neighborhoods) and southern cities of Lake Urmia predominated. Lockdowns indicated that the disease gradually became less transmissible. INTERPRETATION: Financial transactions can be readily used for epidemics surveillance. Semi real-time results of such iterations can be informative for policy makers, guild owners, and general population to prepare safer commuting and merchandise spaces.

Epidemics, pandemics and income inequality.

The novel coronavirus is part of a series of infectious disease outbreaks that include: Ebola, Avian influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, and Influenza A. This paper addresses the question of how do these epidemics and pandemics affect income inequality in countries around the world during the first two decades of this century. To achieve its objective, the paper develops a model that indicates a positive association between these health crises and income inequality. To empirically test our theoretical predictions, the paper explores the effect on the Gini coefficient of a dummy variable that indicates the occurrence of an epidemic or a pandemic in a country in a given year and the number of deaths per 100,000. To properly address potential endogeneity, we implement a Three-Stage-Least Squares technique. The estimation shows that the number of deaths per 100,000 population variable has a statistically significant positive effect on the Gini coefficient, especially when we incorporate COVID-19 data. This suggests that not only the occurrence, but also the health consequences of COVID-19 have a significant and economically important effect on income inequality. BACKGROUND: The purpose of the study is to examine the effect of epidemics and pandemics on income inequality. This has important implications as the outcome of this study can guide policymakers into implementing policies that can mitigate the economic consequences of these health crises. METHODS: The study is a cross country analysis using fixed effects estimation. To address potential endogeneity and determine causality, the paper uses the Three-Stage-Least-Squares estimation. RESULTS: The paper finds that the number of epidemic deaths per 100,000 population variable has a statistically significant positive effect on the Gini coefficient, especially when we incorporate COVID-19 data. CONCLUSIONS: The paper finds that it is not only the occurrence of an epidemic, captured by the epidemics dummy variable, but also the health consequences, captured by the number of deaths per 100,000 population, that have a significant effect on income inequality. This is especially the case when we incorporate COVID-19 in our analysis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not Applicable.