The impact of geopolitical risk, institutional governance and green finance on attaining net-zero carbon emission.

This research investigates the impact of geopolitical risk, institutional governance and green finance on environmental outcomes, specifically focusing on carbon emissions and ecological footprint. Utilizing the dynamic CS-ARDL method and aggregated mean group analysis on a panel dataset covering 21 nations from 2000 to 2021, our findings reveal that heightened geopolitical risk leads to both short and long run increases in carbon emissions and the ecological footprint. Our study finds both a direct as well as indirect connection between governance, green finance and environmental outcomes in both the short and long run, highlighting the nuanced impact of governance on the formulation of environmental policies and regulatory frameworks. The results emphasize the need for targeted strategies, including focused investments and incentives for sustainable finance, particularly in conflict-affected regions. Furthermore, our research underscores the enduring impact of historical events, such as wars, on contemporary environmental indicators, emphasizing the importance of proactive conflict prevention measures. Our research suggests that policymakers should adopt comprehensive strategies that prioritize emission reduction during short-run spikes in geopolitical risk while maintaining a steadfast commitment to long-run sustainability.

Financial globalization and economic growth amid geopolitical risk: A study on China-Russia far East federal district.

Geopolitics, natural resource efficiency and financial globalization have arisen as a new concept for low CO2 to achieve sustainable economic growth (EG). Therefore, developed and developing economies focus on Geopolitics risk (GPR), natural resource (NRS) efficiency and financial globalization (FG) to cope with CO2 neutrality targets. In order to understand the elements that contribute to achieving CO2 neutrality, this study sought to establish a relevant connection between geopolitics, the efficiency of NRS, financial globalization (FNG), and economic growth. For the abovementioned objectives, modern econometric methods, such as the canonical cointegration, CS-FGLS and GMM were adopted to evaluate the China-Russia Far East dataset between 1990 and 2022. In order to achieve CO2 neutrality in the long run, the study's elements are crucial, according to the results. In addition, GMM shows that each of the parameters affects CO2 neutrality. As a result, the ecological Kuznets curve rules the economic landscape, and long-term CO2 neutrality is greatly facilitated by geopolitics, efficient use of natural resources, financial globalization, and economic growth. Consequently, numerous domains necessitate far-reaching and revolutionary policy changes, such as economic integration to mitigate geopolitical risk, effective management of natural resources, efficient financial systems, and sustainable technology.

Assessing the impact of geopolitical, economic, and institutional factors on China's environmental management in the Russian-Ukraine conflicting era.

In contemporary times, geopolitical risk, and natural resources prices are susceptible due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. In the meantime, emerging economies are struggling to explore the factors that could reduce ecological challenges and enhance environmental management. This research aims to analyze several economic, environmental, political, and institutional variables to ascertain their influence on greenhouse gas emissions in China. Covering the latest period from 1990 to 2022, various time series tests, including normality, stationarity, and cointegration tests. The results confirm that the variables studied have a stable pattern over time and are connected in the long run. The non-normal distribution of variables leads to opt novel moment quantile regression, where the results are tested for robustness via parametric approaches. The empirical results asserted that economic growth, natural resource prices, and trade significantly enhance ecological challenges (emissions). However, globalization, geopolitical risk, and institutional quality significantly reduce such environmental challenges. The results are robust, and both unidirectional and bidirectional causal associations confirm the importance of these variables in environmental management. Based on the results, this study recommends engagement in environmentally-friendly trading, investment in clean and green energy, and strengthening institutional quality for the region's environmental recovery.

Shaping a greener future: The role of geopolitical risk, renewable energy and financial development on environmental sustainability using the LCC hypothesis.

The recent progress report of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2023 highlighted the extreme reactions of environmental degradation. This report also shows that the current efforts for achieving environmental sustainability (SDG 13) are inadequate and a comprehensive policy agenda is needed. However, the present literature has highlighted several determinants of environmental degradation but the influence of geopolitical risk on environmental quality (EQ) is relatively ignored. To fill this research gap and propose a inclusive policy structure for achieving the sustainable development goals. This study is the earliest attempt that delve into the effects o of geopolitical risk (GPR), financial development (FD), and renewable energy consumption (REC) on load capacity factor (LCF) under the framework of load capacity curve (LCC) hypothesis for selected Asian countries during 1990-2020. In this regard, we use several preliminary sensitivity tests to check the features and reliability of the dataset. Similarly, we use panel quantile regression for investigating long-run relationships. The factual results affirm the existence of the LCC hypothesis in selected Asian countries. Our findings also show that geopolitical risk reduces environmental quality whereas financial development and REC increase environmental quality. Drawing from the empirical findings, this study suggests a holistic policy approach for achieving the targets of SDG 13 (climate change).

Geopolitical risk, financial development, and renewable energy consumption: empirical evidence from selected industrial economies.

The rapid rise in climate and ecological challenges have allowed policymakers to introduce stringent environmental policies. In addition, financial limitations may pose challenges for countries looking to green energy investments as energy transition is associated with geopolitical risks that could create uncertainty and dissuade green energy investments. The current study uses PTR and PSTR as econometric strategy to investigate how geopolitical risks and financial development indicators influence energy transition in selected industrial economies. Our findings indicate a non-linear DCPB-RE relationship with a threshold equal to 39.361 in PTR model and 35.605 and 122.35 in PSTR model. Additionally, when the threshold was estimated above, financial development indicators and geopolitical risk positively impacts renewable energy. This confirms that these economies operate within a geopolitical context, with the objective of investing more in clean energy. We report novel policy suggestion to encourage policymakers promoting energy transition and advance the sustainable financing development and ecological sustainability.

Energy transition and environmental stability prospects for OECD economies: The prominence role of environmental governance, and economic complexity: Does the geopolitical risk matter?

The global increase in temperature and climate change signals the need for humanity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adopt eco-friendly lifestyles. The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in the UAE emphasized this, urging nations to commit to the Paris Agreement and pursue a greener, carbon-free future. In recent decades, climate change has become a critical issue, primarily because of the extensive use of fossil fuels and conventional energy resources. Economic growth has led to an increase in energy consumption and widespread environmental damage. The present study empirically explores whether any changes in environmental governance, economic complexity, geopolitical risk, and the interaction term influence energy transition and environmental stability in OECD economies over the period 1990-2021. Novel econometric methods, including Westerlund co-integration and the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), are employed to address complexities such as cross-sectional dependency and panel causality. The key findings from the MMQR technique showed a positive link between environmental governance and economic complexity in driving sustainable energy transitions, thus bolstering environmental resilience in OECD countries. However, economic complexity counterbalances environmental stability. Significantly, geopolitical risk acts as a moderating variable, enhancing the effects of governance and complexity on sustainable energy practices and environmental stability. Based on these insights, this study recommends strategic initiatives, including investment in eco-friendly technologies, to fast-track the shift to clean energy and strengthen environmental resilience in OECD countries. These strategies align with the broader objectives of global sustainable development, offering a path towards a greener and more sustainable future.

Exploring the nexus between fiscal decentralization and ecological sustainability: a fresh perspective from the moderating role of geopolitical risk and updated international evidence.

Fiscal decentralization has been long employed to enhance the utilization of financial resources for sustainable development. Nevertheless, its effectiveness in limiting ecological degradation is ambiguous, especially when a country faces geopolitical risks. Different from previous works which separately examine the impacts of either fiscal decentralization or geopolitical risks on ecological sustainability, this research examines the moderating role of geopolitical risks on the non-linear relationship between fiscal decentralization and ecological footprints across different levels of environmental condition. An advanced panel quantile regression is applied to a sample of 23 advanced and emerging market economies from 1990 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that the nexus between revenue decentralization and ecological footprint follows an inverted U-shaped pattern at the 20th to 60th quantiles of ecological footprint. Meanwhile, the linkage between expenditure and ecological footprint reflects a U-shaped pattern across all quantiles. Notably, geopolitical risk strongly moderates the connection between fiscal decentralization and ecological footprint with the role being stronger in the case of revenue decentralization. This research provides valuable implementations to tailor policies for transferring revenue and expenditure responsibilities to sub-governmental bodies towards sustainability targets based on their current ecological conditions and contexts of geopolitical instability.

Navigating the nexus: Geopolitical risk, fossil energy prices, and European utility stock returns - Implications for environmental management and energy security in a conflict-ridden global landscape.

This study employs a TPV-VAR analysis method to explore the linkage between GPR, fossil energy prices, and utility stock returns across 16 European countries from August 2009 to April 2023. Our findings reveal variations over time in how GPR influences the prices of fossil energy and utility stock returns. GPR significantly influences stock returns in the short term (1 month), with prolonged effects observed during major geopolitical incidents, while showing no significance in the medium (6 months) and long term (12 months). Further, the Russia-Ukraine War had a more pronounced impact on fossil energy prices and utility stock returns compared with the Arab Spring and Brexit. Finally, GPR shocks exhibit heterogeneous effects on different fossil energy types, with oil prices being more affected than coal and gas prices. Energy prices act as a channel through which GPR influences utility stock returns. This study elucidates the linkage between GPR, prices of fossil energy, and stock returns, offering valuable perspectives for governments and investment decision-makers into risk management.

From brown to green: are Asian economies on the right path? Assessing the role of green innovations and geopolitical risk on environmental quality.

Preserving the sustainability of the natural environment has emerged as a critical focus on policy agendas worldwide. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between environmental quality and key determinants, focusing on geopolitical risk (GPR), green innovations (GI), economic growth, FDI, renewable energy consumption, and urbanization. Dataset is used for the time period of 1990-2020 across selected Asian economies including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea. Using load capacity factor (LCF) as a comprehensive proxy for environmental quality, the research utilizes panel quantile regression (QR) to provide empirical outcomes. Results of panel QR method reveal a negative impact of economic growth and GPR on LCF. On the other hand, green innovation, FDI, and renewable energy are found as supportive factors to boost environmental quality. In addition, urbanization also shows positive linkage with LCF. The application of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) further validates the robustness of the findings. Adoption of green innovations, practicing sustainable growth patterns, transition toward cleaner energy practices, and integrated urban planning are advocated to enhance environmental quality among Asian nations. Based on empirical findings study suggests comprehensive policy measures that can help in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) including SDG-7 (energy efficiency), SDG-8 (sustainable economic growth), SDG-11 (sustainable cities), and SDG-13 (climate action) among Asian countries.

Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis of Carbon Emissions: Exploring the Impact of Geopolitical Risks, Natural Resource Rents, Corrupt Governance, and Energy Intensity.

The global imperative to mitigate carbon emissions for sustainable development has spurred extensive research into economic, social, and energy-related factors. However, prior studies present a complex landscape, yielding mixed conclusions regarding the influence of geopolitical risk, natural resource rents, corrupt governance, and energy intensity. To untangle this ambiguity, we construct a research model grounded in the Environmental Kuznets Curve, employing panel data from 38 countries spanning 2002 to 2020. Employing panel quantile regression models, we directly assess the impact of identified factors. Our findings affirm the alignment between economic growth and carbon emissions, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Notably, increased geopolitical risk and energy intensity correlate with heightened carbon emissions over time, while corruption governance and natural resource rents exhibit a mitigating effect. Additionally, our study explores the indirect impact of these factors using a panel threshold regression model. Results indicate a diminishing influence of economic growth on carbon emissions. Intriguingly, natural resource rents initially curtail, then amplify the connection between economic growth and carbon emissions. Conversely, rising energy intensity magnifies the relationship between economic expansion and carbon emissions.

The dampening effect of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the linkage between economic complexity and environmental degradation in the G-20.

The question remains whether high geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty will have a dampening or enhancing effect on pollution factors. In this regard, the study empirically investigates the effects of economic complexity, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental pollution for G-20 countries from 1997 to 2018. The long-term coefficient estimates, derived from the FMOLS estimator, support the inverted U-shaped EKC linkages between economic complexity and ecological footprint, carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, over the long term, geopolitical risks, renewable energy use, and the interaction between economic complexity and policy uncertainty have a positive impact on environmental quality in the G-20 economies. Conversely, economic growth and the interaction between economic complexity and geopolitical risk are negatively associated with environmental quality. Additionally, economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on ecological footprint carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, causality results revealed that explanatory variables are the cause of environmental pollution indicators. Hence, in order to advance environmental quality in these nations, precautions must be taken to mitigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty and boost the accessibility of renewable energy sources. Additionally, while not advised as a policy measure, the feasible economic fallout of geopolitical risk should also be considered.

The macroeconomics of near zero growth of GDP in a world of geopolitical risks and conflicts.

This paper offers an analysis of the macroeconomic conditions for near zero economic growth based on a demand-led growth model, and their implications in terms of paid employment, government finances, and the rate of profit. The main finding of the paper is that a level of net investment compatible with near zero growth would lead to a lower level of paid employment in terms of total hours worked. The effects on the distribution of work and the unemployment level would depend on changes to working time, whether in terms of average hours worked per annum, ages of entry into, and exit from, the work force. Furthermore, changes in working time would be achieved through social actions and legislation, rather than market mechanisms. A government budget deficit may well be required to underpin full employment and capacity utilisation, though there may be long-term limits on the use of budget deficits in a near zero growth context. Finally, a near zero growth rate would also mean a substantial lower rate of profit than hitherto. The implementation of these theoretical conditions require a level of cooperation between and within countries, which is much more difficult to reach in the presence of geopolitical risks and conflicts. Yet, there is no country secure from geopolitical risks and conflicts without an ecologically sustainable use of the natural resources. The theoretical conditions discussed in this paper could serve as "condiciones sine quibus non" to ecological sustainability, while navigating the complexities and uncertainties caused by the on-going conflicts and heightened geopolitical risks.

Financial development, resource richness, eco-innovation, and sustainable development: Does geopolitical risk matter?

Financial development and geopolitical risks can significantly affect sustainable development. However, the roles of these factors in sustainable development are rarely investigated. Thus, this study takes into account the role of geopolitical risk while exploring the effects of financial development, natural resource rents, and eco-innovation on sustainable development in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. To this end, yearly data from 1990 to 2019 is analyzed using advanced econometric tests. The Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) results indicate that financial development and eco-innovation are significantly and positively related to sustainable development. Natural resource rents have a detrimental impact on sustainable development which confirms the presence of the resource curse hypothesis in OECD countries. Furthermore, the results revealed that controlling geopolitical risk is useful in fostering sustainable development. Lastly, the panel Granger causality test unveiled one-way causality from financial development, eco-innovation, natural resource rents, and geopolitical risk to sustainable development. Moreover, causalities are found from geopolitical risk to financial development, eco-innovation and natural resources. These findings suggest that OECD countries should prioritize financial development and eco-innovation policies for sustainable development while mitigating the negative effects of natural resource rents. The geopolitical risk can harm sustainable development, so policymakers should promote international cooperation and risk-sharing.

Geopolitical risk and ecological efficiency: A combination approach based on super-efficiency-DEA and extended-STIRPAT models.

Increased geopolitical risks are impacting the sustainable development of the ecological environment. To better understand the impact of geopolitical risk on ecological sustainability, this study develops a research framework for the impact of geopolitical risk on ecological efficiency. (i) Measuring ecological efficiency by data envelopment analysis. (ii) Examining the relationship between geopolitical risks and ecological efficiency using the extended STIRPAT. (iii) Heterogeneity analysis and mediation test were used to further explore the impact mechanism of geopolitical risks. The research results show that: (i) There are obvious differences in the ecological efficiency of countries with different income levels. The ecological efficiency of countries with higher income levels is generally higher, while the ecological efficiency of countries with lower income levels is lower. (ii) Geopolitical risks reduce ecological efficiency, which is bad for ecosystem sustainability. (iii) The magnitude of the adverse impact of geopolitical risks on ecological efficiency is different among different income groups. The negative impact of geopolitical risk on eco-efficiency is worse in high-income countries than in low-income countries.

Navigating the interconnected risks in currency valuation: unveiling the role of climate policy uncertainty.

Given the significance of fostering sustainable climate conditions for long-term economic stability and financial resilience, this study probes the connection between climate-related policy ambiguity and its implications for currency valuation. In doing so, the current study investigates the interconnected effects of climate policy on economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk with the currency valuation in ASEAN countries. Employing wavelet coherence analysis and partial wavelet coherence analysis, the paper highlights the complex relationships among these factors and their implications for exchange rate fluctuations. Using data from 2000 to 2022, the findings reveal that climate policy uncertainty is an important driver of exchange rate movements, amplifying the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Furthermore, the study identifies a vicious cycle between climate policy uncertainty and exchange rates, potentially impacting the region's macroeconomic stability and long-term economic growth. The study presents several policy recommendations to address economic and climate policy uncertainties comprehensively based on the findings. These recommendations include establishing national frameworks for climate risk management, enhancing policy credibility and macroeconomic stability, and promoting regional integration to mitigate the influence of geopolitical risk on exchange rates.

Does geopolitical risk hinder sustainable development goals? Evidence from a panel analysis.

This paper is likely the first attempt to empirically investigate the direct effect of geopolitical risk on sustainable development goals (SDGs). We employ a newly developed SDG index along with its 17 sub-indices from the United Nations to capture various aspects of sustainable development. On a panel sample covering 41 countries from 2015 to 2021, we find that elevated geopolitical tensions can hinder the progress towards achieving sustainable development goals. This result is robust to various model specifications and estimation approaches. Further analyses show that the two dimensions affected are Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG8) and Climate Action (SDG13). Heterogeneity test finds that the negative effect of geopolitical risks is only present in countries highly dependent on natural resources. More importantly, improvements in institutional quality could partially offset the detrimental effect of geopolitical risks on sustainable development goals. Therefore, this study provides important implications for policymakers in devising measures to maintain the progress to achieve SDGs in the era of rising global uncertainties.

Conditional effects of local and global risk factors on the co-movements between economic growth and inflation: Insights into G8 economies.

World economies have experienced rise in uncertainties which has caused misalignments in the already existing nexus between inflation and economic growth. In addition to this, the presence of nonlinearities, asymmetry, heterogeneity, and structural shocks in time series data concerning substantial fluctuations that span systemic crises have rendered time and/or frequency connectedness worthy of investigation. Due to limited studies in this regard, the authors investigated the risk synchronisation among Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Geopolitical Risk with insights from G8 countries. To achieve the study's purpose, estimation techniques employed included the wavelet approaches (bi-wavelet and partial wavelet), and the wavelet multiple as well as the DCC-GARCH Connectedness approach as robustness. A sample period from January 1997 to August 2021 restricted by consistent data availability was considered. It was discovered that most G8 nations have a comparable relationship between their GDP and CPI. Additionally, significant co-movements between the G8 nations' GDP and CPI straddle crises. Furthermore, the relationship between Russia's GDP and CPI was significantly conditionally influenced by geopolitical risk factors. Own country economic policy uncertainty was the main source of shocks for nations like Canada, France, and the US, whereas, in Germany, Italy, and the UK, Global EPU was a crucial conduit for reducing the lead-lag relationship between GDP and CPI. Outcomes from this study imply that uncertainties pose a more persistent and dynamic challenge to the G8 countries' efforts to achieve sustained economic growth, lessen the negative effects of inflation and deflation, and improve national and regional economic integration.

Geopolitical risk and green outward foreign direct investment location choice: evidence from Chinese listed companies.

Green outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has become an important driving force for sustainable economic and environmental development. However, increasing geopolitical risks (GPR) pose a critical obstacle to the green OFDI of multinational enterprises. Drawing upon international production eclectic theory, we explore the impact of GPR on the green OFDI of Chinese enterprises and discuss the moderating role of firms' green technological and political capabilities including different moderating effects of these types of capabilities in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and non-BRI countries. Using the BvD Cross-border Investment database and annual reports of Chinese A-listed companies, we constructed a unique micro-firm overseas green project dataset in 2013-2020. Negative binomial models were used for empirical testing. The GPR has a significant negative impact on Chinese enterprises' green OFDI location choices. The impact intensity varies with the firms' green technological and political capabilities. In addition, compared with non-BRI countries, the role of firms' green technological capability in BRI countries is stronger, while firms' political capability is not significant. These findings expand research on the relationship between GPR and green development by emphasizing the differential impact of GPR on enterprises' green OFDI location choices under different firm capabilities and bilateral country relations.

How economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk affect environmental pollution: does renewable energy consumption matter?

Climate change traps heat, affecting various species in previously dry areas. Climate change brought on by emissions of greenhouse gases exacerbates problems such as severe storms, earthquakes, epidemics, and food distribution. The group of developed and developing countries, the world's biggest carbon emitters and most significant economies, is expertly planning to lessen its environmental challenges and contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 13 set by the United Nations. This study uses the novel econometric methodologies of the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator, the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator, and the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) estimate to examine the influence of economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption, geopolitical risk, non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on ecological footprint from 2000 to 2021. The results reveal that the variables are co-integrated; REC reduces carbon emissions, EPU, geopolitical risk, and economic growth contribute to increasing carbon emissions, while urbanization improves carbon emission. Finally, the results suggest that the developed and developing economies can progress toward SDGs 7 and 13 by using renewable energy, lowering the geopolitical risk, effectively handling policy uncertainty, and reducing urbanization.

The effect of geopolitical risk on carbon emissions: influence mechanisms and heterogeneity analyzed using evidence from China.

To meet the goals of reducing adverse effects, continuing economic transformation, and achieving sustainable development, it is necessary to understand the impact mechanism and heterogeneous effects of geopolitical risk on carbon emissions. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China gathered between 2003 and 2019, we show that (1) geopolitical risk significantly contributes to the growth of carbon emissions, as does non-renewable energy consumption, trade, and economic growth, but that technological progress, industrial structure upgrading, and marketization inhibit the growth of carbon emissions; (2) geopolitical risk inhibits carbon emissions by suppressing non-renewable energy consumption and trade, and promoting technological progress; and (3) geopolitical risk has heterogeneous effects on carbon emissions in different quartiles. In the lower quartiles (i.e., groups with lower emission levels), geopolitical risk suppresses carbon emissions, while in higher quartiles (i.e., groups with higher emission levels), geopolitical risk promotes carbon emissions. As growing geopolitical risk and carbon emissions are now common problems for all countries, this study serves as a valuable reference not only for China, but for every member of the global community seeking to mitigate geopolitical risk shocks and achieve carbon emission reduction targets.