Predicting prolonged postoperative length of stay risk in patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery: Development and assessment of a novel predictive nomogram.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop and internally validate a prediction nomogram model in patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery. Methods: A total of 310 patients undergoing lumbar fusion surgery were reviewed, and the median and quartile interval were used to describe postoperative length of stay (PLOS). Patients with PLOS > P75 were defined as prolonged PLOS. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to filter variables for building the prolonged PLOS risk model. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a predictive model using the variables selected in the LASSO regression model. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the predicting model was calculated and significant test was performed. The Kappa consistency test between the predictive model and the actual diagnosis was performed. Discrimination, calibration, and the clinical usefulness of the predicting model were assessed using the C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was assessed using the bootstrapping validation. Results: According to the interquartile range of PLOS in a total of 310 patients, the PLOS of 235 patients was ≤P75 (7 days) (normal PLOS), and the PLOS of 75 patients was > P75 (prolonged PLOS). The LASSO selected predictors that were used to build the prediction nomogram included BMI, diabetes, hypertension, duration of surgery, duration of anesthesia, anesthesia type, intraoperative blood loss, sufentanil for postoperative analgesia, and postoperative complication. The model displayed good discrimination with an AUC value of 0.807 (95% CI: 0.758-0.849, P < 0.001), a Kappa value of 0.5186 (cutoff value, 0.2445, P < 0.001), and good calibration. A high C-index value of 0.776 could still be reached in the interval validation. Decision curve analysis showed that the prolonged PLOS nomogram was clinically useful when intervention was decided at the prolonged PLOS possibility threshold of 3%. Conclusions: This study developed a novel nomogram with a relatively good accuracy to help clinicians access the risk of prolonged PLOS in lumbar fusion surgery patients. By an estimate of individual risk, surgeons and anesthesiologists may shorten PLOS and accelerate postoperative recovery of lumbar fusion surgery through more accurate individualized treatment.

Rehabilitation following lumbar fusion surgery (REFS) a randomised controlled feasibility study.

PURPOSE: Following lumbar fusion surgery (LFS), 40% of patients are unsure/dissatisfied with their outcome. A prospective, single-centre, randomised, controlled trial was conducted to evaluate the feasibility (including clinical and economic impact) of a theoretically informed rehabilitation programme following LFS (REFS). METHODS: REFS was informed by an explicit theoretical framework and consisted of 10 consecutive weekly group rehabilitation sessions (education, low-tech cardiovascular, limb and spine strengthening exercises, and peer support). Participants were randomised to REFS or 'usual care.' Primary feasibility outcomes included recruitment and engagement. Secondary outcomes, collected preoperatively and 3, 6, and 12  months postoperatively, comprised the Oswestry disability index, European Quality of Life 5 dimensions score, pain self-efficacy questionnaire, hospital anxiety and depression scale and the aggregated functional performance time. Economic impact was evaluated with the Client Services Receipt Inventory. RESULTS: Fifty-two of 58 eligible participants were recruited, and engagement with REFS was > 95%. REFS participants achieved a clinically meaningful reduction in unadjusted mean short-term disability (- 13.27 ± 13.46), which was not observed in the 'usual care' group (- 2.42 ± 12.33). This was maintained in the longer term (- 14.72% ± 13.34 vs - 7.57 ± 13.91). Multilevel regression analyses, adjusted for body mass index, baseline depression, and smoking status reported a statistically significant short-term improvement in disability (p = 0.014) and pain self-efficacy (p = 0.007). REFS costs £275 per participant. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that REFS is feasible and potentially affordable for delivery in the National Health Service. It is associated with a clinically meaningful impact. A multicentre randomised controlled study to further elucidate these results is warranted. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.

Determinants of work disability following lumbar spine decompression surgery.

AIMS: Scientific knowledge about risk factors for work disability in terms of long-term sickness absence and disability pension following lumbar spine decompression surgery remains insufficient. This study aimed to investigate the associations between socio-demographic, work-related, and medical characteristics with subsequent long-term sickness absence (>90 days) and disability pension for individuals who underwent lumbar spine decompression surgery. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of all individuals aged 19-60 years with diagnosed dorsopathies, who underwent lumbar spine decompression surgery 2008-10 in Sweden ( n=7373) was performed. Univariate and multivariate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals regarding long-term sickness absence and disability pension with a 3-year follow-up period were estimated by Cox proportional regression. RESULTS: Low educational level, being a non-European immigrant and preoperative sickness absence were risk factors for both long-term sickness absence and disability pension (hazard ratios: 1.2-3.8). Female sex was a risk factor for long-term sickness absence (hazard ratios: 1.3) whereas age >44 years and being a Nordic immigrant were risk factors for disability pension (hazard ratios: 1.9-2.6). Medical factors as common mental disorders, other mental disorders, prescribed psychiatric medication and somatic comorbidity were risk factors for both long-term sickness absence and disability pension (hazard ratios: 1.2-3.4). A simultaneous lumbar fusion surgery and high preoperative pain severity were risk factors for long-term sickness absence (hazard ratios 1.2-1.8). CONCLUSIONS: To prevent long-term work disability after lumbar spine decompression surgery, specific focus is required on older and female patients, those with mental or somatic comorbidities, high levels of preoperative pain or sickness absence, with a simultaneous lumbar fusion surgery, a low educational level or a non-European immigrant background.

Factors associated with lumbar fusion surgery: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study is to identify the demographic and payer factors that are associated with lumbar fusion surgery. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted utilizing a population of 38,092 patients from the 2010 Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA), USA hospital discharge data. The case population included 16,236 records with any of five ICD-9-CM principal procedure codes for initial lumbar fusion. The control group was comprised of 21,856 patients who were admitted for the same principal diagnoses as the cases, but who did not have initial fusion surgery. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association of age, gender, race and principal payer type with initial lumbar fusions. The interaction between age and payer was also examined, as payer type may moderate the association between age and lumbar fusion surgery. RESULTS: Gender, race, principal payer and age were all found to be significantly associated with lumbar fusion surgery. The interaction of payer and age was also found to be significant. Being female was significantly associated with having a fusion (OR = 1.11, 95 % CI 1.07-1.16). The association between age and receiving surgery was greatest for the less than 20 age group (OR = 10.43, 95 % CI 8.74-12.45). Employees and dependents of Federal government agencies (Tricare, etc.) and patients with commercial insurance were significantly associated with surgery (OR = 1.48, 95 % CI 1.29-1.70 and OR = 1.12, 95 % CI 1.04-1.20, respectively). Patients insured through Medicaid (a social health care program for those with low incomes and limited resources), and the uninsured were negatively associated with surgery (OR = 0.53, 95 % CI 0.47-0.60 and OR = 0.52, 95 % CI 0.46-0.58, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar fusion surgery is not recommended in clinical practice guidelines for the top four principal diagnoses in this study. Yet, patients covered by certain types of insurance were found to be significantly associated with fusion surgery.

Economic Effects of Anti-Depressant Usage on Elective Lumbar Fusion Surgery.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested, although not proven, that presence of concomitant psychiatric disorders may increase the inpatient costs for patients undergoing elective surgery. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that elective lumbar fusion surgery is more costly in patients with under treatment for depression. METHODS: This is a retrospective case-control study of 142 patients who underwent elective lumbar fusion. Of those 142 patients, 41 patients were chronically using an antidepressant medication that considered as a "study group", and 101 patients were not taking an antidepressant medication that considered as a "control group". Data was collected for this cohort regarding antidepressant usage patient demographics, length of stay (LOS), age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index scores and cost. Costs were compared between those with a concomitant antidepressant usage and those without antidepressant usage using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Patients using antidepressants and those with no history of antidepressant usage were similar in terms of gender, age and number of operative levels. The LOS demonstrated a non-significant trend towards longer stays in those using anti-depressants. Total charges, payments, variable costs and fixed costs were all higher in the antidepressant group but none of the differences reached statistical significance. Using Total Charges as the dependent variable, gender and having psychiatric comorbidities were retained independent variables. Use of an antidepressant was independently predictive of a 36% increase in Total Charges. Antidepressant usage as an independent variable also conferred a 22% increase in cost and predictive of a 19% increase in Fixed Cost. Male gender was predictive of a 30% increase in Total Charges. CONCLUSION: This study suggests use of antidepressant in patients who undergo elective spine fusion compared with control group is associated with increasing total cost and length of hospitalization, although none of the differences reached statistical significance.