Improving Stroke Risk Prediction in the General Population: A Comparative Assessment of Common Clinical Rules, a New Multimorbid Index, and Machine-Learning-Based Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: There are few large studies examining and predicting the diversified cardiovascular/noncardiovascular comorbidity relationships with stroke. We investigated stroke risks in a very large prospective cohort of patients with multimorbidity, using two common clinical rules, a clinical multimorbid index and a machine-learning (ML) approach, accounting for the complex relationships among variables, including the dynamic nature of changing risk factors. METHODS: We studied a prospective U.S. cohort of 3,435,224 patients from medical databases in a 2-year investigation. Stroke outcomes were examined in relationship to diverse multimorbid conditions, demographic variables, and other inputs, with ML accounting for the dynamic nature of changing multimorbidity risk factors, two clinical risk scores, and a clinical multimorbid index. RESULTS: Common clinical risk scores had moderate and comparable c indices with stroke outcomes in the training and external validation samples (validation-CHADS2: c index 0.812, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.808-0.815; CHA2DS2-VASc: c index 0.809, 95% CI 0.805-0.812). A clinical multimorbid index had higher discriminant validity values for both the training/external validation samples (validation: c index 0.850, 95% CI 0.847-0.853). The ML-based algorithms yielded the highest discriminant validity values for the gradient boosting/neural network logistic regression formulations with no significant differences among the ML approaches (validation for logistic regression: c index 0.866, 95% CI 0.856-0.876). Calibration of the ML-based formulation was satisfactory across a wide range of predicted probabilities. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that clinical utility for the ML-based formulation was better than that for the two current clinical rules and the newly developed multimorbid tool. Also, ML models and clinical stroke risk scores were more clinically useful than the "treat all" strategy. CONCLUSION: Complex relationships of various comorbidities uncovered using a ML approach for diverse (and dynamic) multimorbidity changes have major consequences for stroke risk prediction. This approach may facilitate automated approaches for dynamic risk stratification in the significant presence of multimorbidity, helping in the decision-making process for risk assessment and integrated/holistic management.

Temporal trend and attributable risk factors of stroke burden in China, 1990-2019: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the temporal trend of the disease burden of stroke and its attributable risk factors in China, especially at provincial levels, is important for effective prevention strategies and improvement. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is to investigate the disease burden of stroke and its risk factors at national and provincial levels in China from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Following the methodology in the GBD 2019, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of stroke cases in the Chinese population were estimated by sex, age, year, stroke subtypes (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage), and across 33 provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2019. Attributable mortality and DALYs of underlying risk factors were calculated by a comparative risk assessment. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·94 million (95% uncertainty interval 3·43-4·58) new stroke cases in China. The incidence rate of stroke increased by 86·0% (73·2-99·0) from 1990, reaching 276·7 (241·3-322·0) per 100 000 population in 2019. The age-standardised incidence rate declined by 9·3% (3·3-15·5) from 1990 to 2019. Among 28·76 million (25·60-32·21) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019, 24·18 million (20·80-27·87) were ischaemic stroke, 4·36 million (3·69-5·05) were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 1·58 million (1·32-1·91) were subarachnoid haemorrhage. The prevalence rate increased by 106·0% (93·7-118·8) and age-standardised prevalence rate increased by 13·2% (7·7-19·1) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, there were 2·19 million (1·89-2·51) deaths and 45·9 million (39·8-52·3) DALYs due to stroke. The mortality rate increased by 32·3% (8·6-59·0) from 1990 to 2019. Over the same period, the age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 39·8% (28·6-50·7) and the DALY rate decreased by 41·6% (30·7-50·9). High systolic blood pressure, ambient particulate matter pollution exposure, smoking, and diet high in sodium were four major risk factors for stroke burden in 2019. Moreover, we found marked differences of stroke burden and attributable risk factors across provinces in China from 1990 to 2019. INTERPRETATION: The disease burden of stroke is still severe in China, although the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates have decreased since 1990. The stroke burden in China might be reduced through blood pressure management, lifestyle interventions, and air pollution control. Moreover, because substantial heterogeneity of stroke burden existed in different provinces, improved health care is needed in provinces with heavy stroke burden. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China and Taikang Yicai Public Health and Epidemic Control Fund.

Automatic Grading of Stroke Symptoms for Rapid Assessment Using Optimized Machine Learning and 4-Limb Kinematics: Clinical Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Subtle abnormal motor signs are indications of serious neurological diseases. Although neurological deficits require fast initiation of treatment in a restricted time, it is difficult for nonspecialists to detect and objectively assess the symptoms. In the clinical environment, diagnoses and decisions are based on clinical grading methods, including the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score or the Medical Research Council (MRC) score, which have been used to measure motor weakness. Objective grading in various environments is necessitated for consistent agreement among patients, caregivers, paramedics, and medical staff to facilitate rapid diagnoses and dispatches to appropriate medical centers. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to develop an autonomous grading system for stroke patients. We investigated the feasibility of our new system to assess motor weakness and grade NIHSS and MRC scores of 4 limbs, similar to the clinical examinations performed by medical staff. METHODS: We implemented an automatic grading system composed of a measuring unit with wearable sensors and a grading unit with optimized machine learning. Inertial sensors were attached to measure subtle weaknesses caused by paralysis of upper and lower limbs. We collected 60 instances of data with kinematic features of motor disorders from neurological examination and demographic information of stroke patients with NIHSS 0 or 1 and MRC 7, 8, or 9 grades in a stroke unit. Training data with 240 instances were generated using a synthetic minority oversampling technique to complement the imbalanced number of data between classes and low number of training data. We trained 2 representative machine learning algorithms, an ensemble and a support vector machine (SVM), to implement auto-NIHSS and auto-MRC grading. The optimized algorithms performed a 5-fold cross-validation and were searched by Bayes optimization in 30 trials. The trained model was tested with the 60 original hold-out instances for performance evaluation in accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: The proposed system can grade NIHSS scores with an accuracy of 83.3% and an AUC of 0.912 using an optimized ensemble algorithm, and it can grade with an accuracy of 80.0% and an AUC of 0.860 using an optimized SVM algorithm. The auto-MRC grading achieved an accuracy of 76.7% and a mean AUC of 0.870 in SVM classification and an accuracy of 78.3% and a mean AUC of 0.877 in ensemble classification. CONCLUSIONS: The automatic grading system quantifies proximal weakness in real time and assesses symptoms through automatic grading. The pilot outcomes demonstrated the feasibility of remote monitoring of motor weakness caused by stroke. The system can facilitate consistent grading with instant assessment and expedite dispatches to appropriate hospitals and treatment initiation by sharing auto-MRC and auto-NIHSS scores between prehospital and hospital responses as an objective observation.

CT Angiography for Triage of Patients with Acute Minor Stroke: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

Background Minor stroke is common and may represent up to two-thirds of cases of acute ischemic stroke. The cost-effectiveness of CT angiography in patients with minor stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] score ≤6) is not well established. Purpose To evaluate cost-effectiveness of CT angiography in the detection of large-vessel occlusion (LVO) in patients with acute minor stroke (NIHSS score ≤6). Materials and Methods A Markov decision-analytic model with a societal perspective was constructed. Three different management strategies were evaluated: (a) no vascular imaging and best medical management, (b) CT angiography for all patients and immediate thrombectomy for LVO after intravenous thrombolysis, and (c) CT angiography for all and best medical management (including intravenous thrombolysis, with rescue thrombectomy for patients with LVO and neurologic deterioration). One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results Base-case calculation showed that CT angiography followed by immediate thrombectomy had the lowest cost ($346 007) and highest health benefits (9.26 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]). CT angiography followed by best medical management with possible rescue thrombectomy for patients with LVO had a slightly higher cost ($346 500) and lower health benefits (9.09 QALYs). No vascular imaging had the highest cost and lowest health benefits. The difference in health benefits compared with the CT angiography and immediate thrombectomy strategy was 0.39 QALY, which corresponds to 142 days in perfect health per patient. The conclusion was robust in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. CT angiography was cost-effective when the probability of LVO was greater than 0.16% in patients with acute minor stroke. The net monetary benefit of performing CT angiography was higher in younger patients ($68 950 difference between CT angiography followed by immediate thrombectomy and no vascular imaging in 55-year-old patients compared with $20 931 in 85-year-old patients). Conclusion Screening for large-vessel occlusion with CT angiography in patients with acute minor stroke is cost-effective and associated with improved health outcomes. Undetected large-vessel occlusion in the absence of vascular imaging results in worse health outcomes and higher costs. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Utilization of Rehabilitation Services in Stroke: A Study Utilizing the Health and Retirement Study With Linked Medicare Claims Data.

OBJECTIVES: To describe Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who used poststroke rehabilitation services and identified the strongest predictors of utilization after the initial stroke care episode. DESIGN: Pooled, cross-sectional design using data from 1998 to 2010 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) with linked Medicare claims data. SETTING: NA. PARTICIPANTS: Stroke survivors who were Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries and participated in the HRS were included (N=515). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Utilization of rehabilitation services up to 10 years poststroke was the primary outcome with logistic regression used to predict utilization. Covariates included demographic factors, baseline functional status, health conditions, personal lifestyle factors, and social support. RESULTS: Rehabilitation service utilization was 21.6%, 6.8%, 15.8%, 16.5%, and <16% in years 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10, respectively. Age was the primary factor predicting use of rehabilitation in the first 10 years poststroke (odds ratio: 1.14; P=.001). Recurrent stroke (odds ratio: 1.64; P=.051) was also significantly associated with utilization, whereas unspecified incident stroke at incident trended toward significance (odds ratio: 2.17; P=.077). None of the other factors was a significant predictor of participation in rehabilitation services in this period. CONCLUSION: A small number of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who are stroke survivors utilize rehabilitation services in the first 10 years poststroke. Of those who do, age is the primary driver of utilization. We analyzed a multitude of factors that might influence utilization, but other factors not available in these data also need to be explored.

Assessment of the Role of Carotid Atherosclerosis in the Association Between Major Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Ischemic Stroke Subtypes.

Importance: A better understanding of the role of atherosclerosis in the development of ischemic stroke subtypes could help to improve strategies for prevention of stroke worldwide. Objective: To assess the role of carotid atherosclerosis in the association between major cardiovascular risk factors and ischemic stroke subtypes. Design, Setting, and Participants: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study was conducted in the general population of 5 urban and 5 rural areas in China, with a baseline survey obtained between June 2004 and July 2008. A random sample of 23 973 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease at enrollment who had carotid artery ultrasonographic measurements recorded at a resurvey from September 2013 to June 2014 were included. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2016, to April 10, 2019. Exposures: Major cardiovascular risk factors (ie, blood pressure [BP], blood lipid levels, smoking, and diabetes). Main Outcomes and Measures: Carotid ultrasonographic measures of plaque burden (derived from number and maximum size of carotid artery plaques at resurvey) and first ischemic stroke during follow-up (n = 952), with subtyping (data release, August 2018) as lacunar (n = 263), probable large artery (n = 193), probable cardioembolic (n = 66), or unconfirmed (n = 430). Associations between cardiovascular risk factors, carotid plaque burden, and ischemic stroke subtypes were adjusted for age, sex, and geographic area. Results: The 23 973 participants in the study had a mean (SD) age of 50.6 (10.0) years, and 14 833 (61.9%) were women. Systolic BP had a stronger association (odds ratio [OR] per SD, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.42-1.61) than plaque burden (OR per SD, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.26-1.44) with ischemic stroke, and the associations of systolic BP with each subtype of ischemic stroke were modestly attenuated by adjustment for plaque burden. After adjustment for BP, plaque burden had a stronger association with probable large artery stroke (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.24-1.63) than with lacunar stroke (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.10-1.43) but was not associated with probable cardioembolic stroke (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.83-1.36). Conclusions and Relevance: Although BP was an important risk factor for all ischemic stroke subtypes, carotid atherosclerosis was an important risk factor only for large artery and lacunar strokes, suggesting that drug treatments targeting atherosclerosis may reduce the risk of stroke subtypes to different extents.

Can I Send This Patient with Stroke Home? Strategies Managing Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Stroke in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: While transient ischemic attack and minor stroke (TIAMS) are common conditions evaluated in the emergency department (ED), there is controversy regarding the most effective and efficient strategies for managing them in the ED. Some patients are discharged after evaluation in the ED and cared for in the outpatient setting, while others remain in an observation unit without being admitted or discharged, and others experience prolonged and potentially costly inpatient admissions. OBJECTIVE OF THE REVIEW: The goal of this clinical review was to summarize and present recommendations regarding the disposition of TIAMS patients in the ED (e.g., admission vs. discharge). DISCUSSION: An estimated 250,000 to 300,000 TIA events occur each year in the United States, with an estimated near-term risk of subsequent stroke ranging from 3.5% to 10% at 2 days, rising to 17% by 90 days. While popular and easy to use, reliance solely on risk-stratification tools, such as the ABCD2, should not be used to determine whether TIAMS patients can be discharged safely. Additional vascular imaging and advanced brain imaging may improve prediction of short-term neurologic risk. We also review various disposition strategies (e.g., inpatient vs. outpatient/ED observation units) with regard to their association with neurologic outcomes, such as 30-day or 90-day stroke recurrence or new stroke, in addition to other outcomes, such as hospital length of stay and health care costs. CONCLUSIONS: Discharge from the ED for rapid outpatient follow-up may be a safe and effective strategy for some forms of minor stroke without disabling deficit and TIA patients after careful evaluation and initial ED workup. Future research on such strategies has the potential to improve neurologic and overall patient outcomes and reduce hospital costs and ED length of stay.

Timely access to inpatient rehabilitation after stroke: a qualitative study of perceived barriers and potential solutions in Ontario, Canada.

PURPOSE: Stroke units have been established as best practice care, in part because they offer timely initiation of rehabilitation. Experts in Ontario, Canada recommend that eligible patients be transferred to inpatient rehabilitation (on average) by day 5 after ischemic stroke and day 7 after a hemorrhagic stroke. This study explores perceived barriers to implementation of these recommendations and potential solutions. METHOD: Exploratory focus groups were held with stakeholders from five geographically diverse regions across Ontario between September 2011 and January 2012. Participants were asked to consider the recommendations, list perceived barriers and to collectively discuss potential solutions. Data analysis included coding of transcribed data, sorting material to identify themes and confronting themes with a formalized body of knowledge. RESULTS: Barriers identified by participants fell into three categories: patient-centered, clinician-focused and resource or system based, within these, specific challenges included managing patients' medical and emotional readiness for rehabilitation, timely completion of medical tests, staff comfort in discharging patients, dedicated transportation and funding-related concerns. CONCLUSIONS: The structure of Ontario's health care system presents challenges to early transfer of stroke patients to inpatient rehabilitation, yet the stakeholders consulted in this study felt that these could be addressed with proper planning, improved coordination and targeted investment. Implications for rehabilitation Stroke units are a well-established best practice in stroke care and timely access to rehabilitation is a key component of their effectiveness. Stroke experts in Ontario, Canada recommend transfer of suitable patients to inpatient rehabilitation on day 5 and day 7, on average, after ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively. Stakeholders report that meeting these targets may require some adjustments to local processes of care, many of which can be achieved with little to no financial investment.

[Severity assessment strategies based on administrative data using stroke as an example]. / Möglichkeiten zur Einschätzung des Schweregrades einer Erkrankung auf der Basis von Routinedaten am Beispiel des Schlaganfalls.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Information on disease severity is relevant for many studies with claims data in health service research, but only limited information is available in routine data. Stroke serves as an example to analyse whether the combination of different information in claims data can provide insight into the severity of a disease. METHOD: As a first step, a literature search was conducted. Strategies to assess the severity of a disease by means of routine data were examined with regard to approval and applicability to German sickness fund data. In order to apply and extend the identified procedures, the statutory health insurance sample AOK Hessen/KV Hessen (VSH) served as data source. It is an 18.75 % random sample of persons insured by the AOK Hessen, with 2013 being the most recent year. Stroke patients were identified by the ICD-10 GM code I63 and I64. Patients with said diagnoses being coded as a hospital discharge diagnosis in 2012 were included due to an acute event in 2012 (n=944). The follow-up time was one year. RESULTS: Ten studies covering seven different methods to assess stroke severity were identified. Codes for coma (4.2 % of stroke patients in the SHI sample) as well as coma and/or the application of a PEG tube (9.8 % of the stroke patients) were applied as a proxy for disease severity of acute cases. Taking age, sex and comorbidity into consideration, patients in a coma show a significantly increased risk of mortality compared to those without coma. Three operationalisations were chosen as possible proxies for disease severity of stroke in the further course of disease: i) sequelae (hemiplegia, neurological neglect), ii) duration of the index inpatient stay, and iii) nursing care/ care level 3 for the first time after stroke. The latter proxy has the highest explanatory value for SHI costs. CONCLUSION: The studies identified use many variables mainly based on hospital information in order to describe disease severity. With the exception of coma, these proxies were neither validated nor did the authors provide more detailed grounds for their use. An identified score for stroke severity could not be applied to SHI data. To develop a comparable score requires a linkage of clinical and administrative data. Since routine data include information from all sectors of care, it should be explored whether these data (for example, the patients' care needs) are suitable to assess disease severity. For validation, separate databases and, optimally, primary patient data are necessary.

Incidence, Management and Short-Term Outcome of Stroke in a General Population of 1.4 Million Japanese　- Shiga Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND: This study determined the current status of the incidence, management, and prognosis of stroke in Japan using a population-based stroke registry.Methods and Results:Shiga Stroke Registry is an ongoing population-based registry that covers approximately 1.4 million residents of Shiga Prefecture. Cases of acute stroke were identified using standard definitions through surveillance of both all acute-care hospitals with neurology/neurosurgery facilities and death certificates in 2011. A total of 2,956 stroke cases and 2,176 first-ever stroke cases were identified. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate for first-ever stroke using the 2013 European Standard Population as standard was per 100,000 person-years: 91.3 for ischemic stroke, 36.4 for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 13.7 for subarachnoid hemorrhage. It was estimated that approximately 220,000 new strokes occurred in 2011 in Japan. Among the 2,956 cases, most stroke patients underwent neuroimaging, 268 received surgical or endovascular treatment, and 2,158 had rehabilitation therapy; 78 patients received intravenous thrombolysis. A total of 1,846 stroke patients had died or were dependent at hospital discharge, and 390 died within 28 days of onset. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence rates of stroke by subtypes were clarified and the total number of new strokes in Japan was estimated. More than half of stroke patients die or become dependent after a stroke. This study re-emphasized the importance of public health measures in reducing the burden of stroke in Japan.

Impact of financial incentives for inter-provider care coordination on health-care resource utilization among elderly acute stroke patients.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of inter-provider care coordination on health-care resource utilization among elderly acute stroke patients. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study using health-care insurance claims data. SETTING: Claims data of the Fukuoka Prefecture Wide-Area Association of Latter-Stage Elderly Healthcare. PARTICIPANTS: About, 6409 patients aged 75 years or older admitted for acute stroke and moved to rehabilitation wards from 1 April 2010 to 30 September 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Lengths of stay (LOS) and total charge (TC) were evaluated according to three groups of care pathways (coordinated care, integrated care and other pathways). RESULTS: Compared with the other care pathway, the coordinated care groups had significantly shorter LOS of 2.0 days in acute ischemic stroke care; they had 2.5 days shorter LOS in hemorrhagic stroke care. However, there were no significant differences in rehabilitation care LOS and TC. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a payment system for care coordination is inappropriate since it was not associated with a reduction in overall health-care resource utilization. Further, health-care system reform is necessary to improve care continuity across multiple health-care institutions in Japan.

Assessment of the Predictive Validity of Etiologic Stroke Classification.

Importance: The ability of present-day etiologic stroke classification systems to generate subtypes with discrete stroke characteristics is not known. Objective: To test the hypothesis that etiologic stroke subtyping identifies different disease processes that can be recognized through their different clinical courses. Design, Setting, and Participants: We performed a head-to-head evaluation of the ability of the Causative Classification of Stroke (CCS), Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST), and ASCO (A for atherosclerosis, S for small-vessel disease, C for cardiac source, and O for other cause) classification systems to generate etiologic subtypes with different clinical, imaging, and prognostic characteristics in 1816 patients with ischemic stroke. This study included 2 cohorts recruited at separate periods; the first cohort was recruited between April 2003 and June 2006 and the second between June 2009 and December 2011. Data analysis was performed between June 2014 and May 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: Separate teams of stroke-trained neurologists performed CCS, TOAST, and ASCO classifications based on information available at the time of hospital discharge. We assessed the association between etiologic subtypes and stroke characteristics by computing receiver operating characteristic curves for binary variables (90-day stroke recurrence and 90-day mortality) and by calculating the ratio of between-category to within-category variability from the analysis of variance for continuous variables (admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and acute infarct volume). Results: Among the 1816 patients included, the median age was 70 years (interquartile range, 58-80 years) (830 women [46%]). The classification systems differed in their ability to assign stroke etiologies into known subtypes; the size of the undetermined category was 33% by CCS, 53% by TOAST, and 42% by ASCO (P < .001 for all binary comparisons). All systems provided significant discrimination for the validation variables tested. For the primary validation variable (90-day recurrence), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.75) for CCS, 0.61 (95% CI, 0.56-0.67) for TOAST, and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60-0.71) for ASCO (P = .01 for CCS vs ASCO; P < .001 for CCS vs TOAST; P = .13 for ASCO vs TOAST). The classification systems exhibited similar discrimination for 90-day mortality. For admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and acute infarct volume, CCS generated more distinct subtypes with higher between-category to within-category variability than TOAST and ASCO. Conclusions and Relevance: Our findings suggest that the major etiologic stroke subtypes are distinct categories with different stroke characteristics irrespective of the classification system used to identify them. We further show that CCS generates discrete etiologic categories with more diverse clinical, imaging, and prognostic characteristics than either TOAST or ASCO.

Difference of hospital charges for stroke inpatients between hospitals with different levels and therapeutic modes in Beijing, China.

OBJECTIVES: The present study analyzed the hospital charges for stroke patients in China and determined the factors associated with hospital costs. METHODS: Medical records of hospitalized patients with a primary diagnosis of acute stroke were collected from 121 hospitals in Beijing (2012). Distribution characteristics of hospital charges for different stroke types, hospital levels and types were studied. Factors influencing total hospital charges were analyzed. RESULTS: 60.8% of the 94 906 stroke patients were male and the mean age of these patients was 66.5 ± 13.2 years. The median length of hospital stay (LOHS) for these patients was 14 d (interquartile range, IQR 9-19). The mean hospital charge per patient was 19 270 Chinese Yuan. Forty-five percent of these charges were for medicine, 18% for laboratory and examination, 16% for material, 15% for therapy, 5% for service and 1% for blood product. The mean hospital charge for patients suffering from hemorrhagic stroke was significantly more than ischemic stroke (34 937 vs. 17 049, p < 0.001), and was significantly more for Level 3 than Level 2 hospitals (23 762 vs. 14 554, p < 0.001). LOHS, hospital level and stroke severity were key determinants of the hospital charge. CONCLUSIONS: Though hospital charges for stroke patients in China were low, it brought a heavy economic burden for the larger stroke population. Medicine accounted for the largest percentage of hospital charges in China. LOHS emerged to be the main predictor of the cost. Decreasing medicine charge and LOHS might be strategies to decrease hospital charges and reduce economic burden of stroke in China.

Association of the ASCO classification with the executive function subscores of the Montreal cognitive assessment in patients with postischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: The ASCO classification can evaluate the etiology and mechanisms of ischemic stroke more comprehensively and systematically than conventional stroke classification systems such as Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST). Simultaneously, risk factors for cognitive impairment such as arterial sclerosis, leukoaraiosis, and atrial fibrillation can also be gathered and graded using the ASCO classification. METHODS: Sixty patients with postischemic stroke underwent cognitive testing, including testing by the Japanese version of the Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA-J) and the mini-mental state examination (MMSE). Ischemic strokes were categorized and graded by the ASCO classification. In this phenotype-based classification, every patient is characterized by the A-S-C-O system (A for Atherosclerosis, S for Small vessel disease, C for Cardiac source, and O for Other cause). Each of the 4 phenotypes is graded 0, 1, 2, or 3, according to severity. The conventional TOAST classification was also applied. Correlations between individual MoCA-J/MMSE scores and the ASCO scores were assessed. RESULTS: The total score of the ASCO classification significantly correlated with the total scores of MoCA-J and MMSE. This correlation was more apparent in MoCA-J than in MMSE, because MoCA-J scores were normally distributed, whereas MMSE scores were skewed toward the higher end of the range (ceiling effect). Results for individual subtests of MoCA-J and MMSE indicated that cognitive function for visuoexecutive, calculation, abstraction, and remote recall significantly correlated with ASCO score. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the ASCO phenotypic classification of stroke is useful not only for assessing the etiology of ischemic stroke but also for predicting cognitive decline after ischemic stroke.

The one-year attributable cost of post-stroke dysphagia.

With the recent emphasis on evidence-based practice and healthcare reform, understanding the cost of dysphagia management has never been more important. It is helpful for clinicians to understand and objectively report the costs associated with dysphagia when they advocate for their services in this economy. Having carefully estimated cost of illness, inputs are needed for cost-effectiveness analyses that help support the value of treatments. This study sought to address this issue by examining the 1-year cost associated with a diagnosis of dysphagia post-stroke in South Carolina. Furthermore, this study investigated whether ethnicity and residence differences exist in the cost of dysphagia post-stroke. Data on 3,200 patients in the South Carolina Medicare database from 2004 who had ICD-9 codes for ischemic stroke, 434 and 436, were retrospectively included in this study. Differences between persons with and without dysphagia post-stroke were compared with respect to age, gender, ethnicity, mortality, length of stay, comorbidity, rurality, discharge disposition, and cost to Medicare. Univariate analyses and a gamma-distributed generalized linear multivariable model with a log link function were completed. We found that the 1-year cost to Medicare for persons with dysphagia post ischemic stroke was $4,510 higher than that for persons without dysphagia post ischemic stroke when controlling for age, comorbidities, ethnicity, and proportion of time alive. Univariate analysis revealed that rurality, ethnicity, and gender were not statistically significantly different in comparisons of individuals with or without dysphagia post-stroke. Post-stroke dysphagia significantly increases post-stroke medical expenses. Understanding the expenditures associated with post-stroke dysphagia is helpful for optimal allocation and use of resources. Such information is needed to conduct cost-effectiveness studies.

The Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR): predictive validity in inpatient stroke rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate relative accuracy of a newly developed Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR) for classifying fallers and non-fallers, compared with a health system fall risk screening tool, the Fall Harm Risk Screen. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective quality improvement study conducted at an inpatient stroke rehabilitation unit at a large urban university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Patients admitted for inpatient stroke rehabilitation (N = 419) with imaging or clinical evidence of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, between 1 August 2009 and 31 July 2010. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves of both scales' classifications, based on fall risk score completed upon admission to inpatient stroke rehabilitation. RESULTS: A total of 68 (16%) participants fell at least once. The SAFR was significantly more accurate than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (p < 0.001), with area under the curve of 0.73, positive predictive value of 0.29, and negative predictive value of 0.94. For the Fall Harm Risk Screen, area under the curve was 0.56, positive predictive value was 0.19, and negative predictive value was 0.86. Sensitivity and specificity of the SAFR (0.78 and 0.63, respectively) was higher than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (0.57 and 0.48, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: An evidence-derived, population-specific fall risk assessment may more accurately predict fallers than a general fall risk screen for stroke rehabilitation patients. While the SAFR improves upon the accuracy of a general assessment tool, additional refinement may be warranted.

The incidence of stroke by socioeconomic status, age, sex, and stroke subtype: a nationwide study in Korea.

OBJECTIVES: To date, studies have not comprehensively demonstrated the relationship between stroke incidence and socioeconomic status. This study investigated stroke incidence by household income level in conjunction with age, sex, and stroke subtype in Korea. METHODS: Contributions by the head of household were used as the basis for income levels. Household income levels for 21 766 036 people were classified into 6 groups. The stroke incidences were calculated by household income level, both overall within income categories and further by age group, sex, and stroke subtype. To present the inequalities among the six ranked groups in a single value, the slope index of inequality and relative index of inequality were calculated. RESULTS: In 2005, 57 690 people were first-time stroke patients. The incidences of total stroke for males and females increased as the income level decreased. The incidences of stroke increased as the income level decreased in those 74 years old and under, whereas there was no difference by income levels in those 75 and over. Intracerebral hemorrhage for the males represented the highest inequality among stroke subtypes. Incidences of subarachnoid hemorrhage did not differ by income levels. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of stroke increases as the income level decreases, but it differs according to sex, age, and stroke subtype. The difference in the relative incidence is large for male intracerebral hemorrhage, whereas the difference in the absolute incidence is large for male ischemic stroke.

Functional recovery at 3 months in stroke patients not receiving thrombolytic therapy: the comparison between patients arriving earlier and later than 4.5 hours.

BACKGROUND: We aim to study the recovery of functional abilities of stroke patients who did not receive recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) after treatment for 3 months comparing patients who arrived at a hospital within 4.5 hours and those who arrived after 4.5 hours of symptom onset. Also, we investigated the predictors of the functional recovery and the quality of life (QOL) at 3 months after stroke. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Data were collected by interviewing the stroke patients and caregivers twice on Day 1 and at 3 months after the stroke onset. We collected the demographic data, Modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Barthel Index, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and World Health Organization Quality of Life-Bref-Thai (WHOQOL-Bref-Thai). RESULTS: Eighty-eight and 85 patients arrived at a hospital within 4.5 and after 4.5 hours respectively. At 3 months after treatment, the recovery of stroke patients as assessed by mRS, Barthel Index, and the QOL in both groups did not differ significantly (P > .05). Approximately 80% in both groups had good QOL. Both groups of patients had a similar low stroke awareness and knowledge in terms of risk factors (P = .825) and care of stroke patients (P = .562). Four variables that significantly predicted the improvement of the mRS score at 3 months after treatment were age 60 years and younger, premorbid self-care ability, the NIHSS score of 14 or less and Day 1 mRS score. CONCLUSION: Stroke patients arriving at the hospital within and after 4.5 hours of the onset who did not receive the rtPA did not have significant differences in the functional outcomes and quality of life at 3 months. However, the eligibility for rtPA is not known before arriving at the hospital so that the necessity of seeking medical treatment as quickly as possible is still warranted. Increasing effective public awareness regarding stroke risk factors and care should be implemented.

Incidence and trends of stroke and its subtypes in Changsha, China from 2005 to 2011.

During the 1990s no significant changes were found for the high incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) in Changsha, in contrast to the increase observed in Beijing and Shanghai. However, the epidemiological patterns of stroke may change with economic development. This study aimed to examine the characteristics of stroke incidence transition in Changsha from 2005 to 2011. In 2007 two communities with a registered population of about 100,000 were selected and data from stroke patients who presented between 2005 and 2007 were retrospectively collected from January to June 2008. From January to December 2007 a stroke surveillance network was established and stroke patients who presented between 2008 and 2011 were prospectively registered. From 2005 to 2011 the mean annual age-adjusted incidence of first-ever stroke was 168.5/100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 159.0-178.0/100,000), with 189.3/100,000 (95% CI 175.1-178.0/100,000) for men and 148.7/100,000 (95% CI 136.0-161.4/100,000) for women. The mean annual age-adjusted incidence of IS, intracranial hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage was 72.6/100,000 (95% CI 66.3-78.9/100,000), 85.1/100,000 (95% CI 78.3-91.9/100,000) and 9.4/100,000 (95% CI 7.1-11.7/100,000), respectively. During the study period, the age-adjusted incidence of stroke increased at an annual rate of 3.7% (p=0.001); at 4.2% for men (p=0.001) and 3.1% for women (p=0.026). The age-adjusted incidence of IS increased at an annual rate of 3.5% (p=0.003) but no significant changes were seen for hemorrhagic stroke. Characteristics of stroke incidence transition may reflect underlying changes in risk factors and there is an urgent need to identify these factors and launch appropriate public health campaigns.

Trends in stroke survival incidence rates in older Australians in the new millennium and forecasts into the future.

AIMS: The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051. METHODS: Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i) demographic changes and (ii) assuming changing of both incidence rates and demography. RESULTS: In the ACT in the first decade of the 21st century, the absolute numbers and age-adjusted standardized incidence rates of stroke survivors (measured as a function of age and period) increased among both men and women aged 60 years or older. The trend toward increased survival rates in both sexes was driven mainly by population aging, whereas the effect of stroke year was more pronounced in men compared with women. The absolute NSS (and the financial burden to the society) in Australia is predicted to increase by 35.5%-59.3% in 2021 compared with 2011 and by 1.6- to 4.6-fold in 2051 if current only demographic (first number) or both demographic and incidence trends (second number) continue. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates favorable trends in stroke survivor rates in Australia in the first decade of the new millennium and projects in the foreseeable future significant increases in the absolute numbers of older stroke survivors, especially among those aged 70 years or older and men.