The needle and the damage done: Deaths of despair, economic precarity, and the white working-class.

Economic insecurity has grown in the United States since the 1970s impacting all segments of the working-class, including previously insulated sub-groups such as non-Hispanic whites. Moreover, the white working-class has experienced a surge in socio-cultural isolation, and disengagement with societal institutions. This analysis focuses on the health consequences of these developments, with a particular emphasis on the rising "deaths of despair" (suicide, drug poisoning, alcohol related). These deaths have been increasing since the mid-1990s and, at least until recently, tended to be clustered amongst whites without a four-year college degree. Various competing explanations have been put forth, emphasizing distinct factors such as material conditions, socio-cultural dynamics, and accessibility to opioids. Using a series of linear models this analysis examines the county-level association between economic precarity, white working-class population size, opioid accessibility, and deaths of despair. Results affirm the net effect of each predictor and illuminate an interactive relationship between opioid accessibility and precarity, as well as an interactive relationship between all three predictors. By undertaking an interdisciplinary synthesis of existing research, this study contributes to the understanding of the social determinants of mortality while providing crucial insights into an ongoing crisis in contemporary America.

Trends in "Deaths of Despair" Among Working-Aged White and Black Americans, 1990-2017.

Life expectancy for US White men and women declined between 2013 and 2017. Initial explanations for the decline focused on increases in "deaths of despair" (i.e., deaths from suicide, drug use, and alcohol use), which have been interpreted as a cohort-based phenomenon afflicting middle-aged White Americans. There has been less attention on Black mortality trends from these same causes, and whether the trends are similar or different by cohort and period. We complement existing research and contend that recent mortality trends in both the US Black and White populations most likely reflect period-based exposures to 1) the US opioid epidemic and 2) the Great Recession. We analyzed cause-specific mortality trends in the United States for deaths from suicide, drug use, and alcohol use among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White Americans, aged 20-64 years, over 1990-2017. We employed sex-, race-, and cause-of-death-stratified Poisson rate models and age-period-cohort models to compare mortality trends. Results indicate that rising "deaths of despair" for both Black and White Americans are overwhelmingly driven by period-based increases in drug-related deaths since the late 1990s. Further, deaths related to alcohol use and suicide among both White and Black Americans changed during the Great Recession, despite some racial differences across cohorts.

Suicide mortality risk in a cohort of individuals treated for alcohol, heroin or cocaine abuse: Results of a follow-up study.

Cohort study. This follow-up study (from 1975 to 2016) was aimed to estimate the mortality risk for suicide in a cohort of patients presenting to a public treatment centre for addiction (SERD) with Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD), Heroin Use Disorder - HUD or Cocaine Use Disorder (CUD), also relating to their access to a Mental Heath Service. Crude Mortality Rates for suicide were higher for patients with AUDs, for men and subjects 45-64 years old. Hanging was the main cause of suicide death. We highlight an increase in mortality in the period 2009-2012, which coincides with the economic recession, and in the year of first contact with a SERD. The Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) were 4.9, higher among females than males. From the multivariate analysis, a higher risk for patients that were separated or divorced was observed. The results of our study provide some guidance on the features of subjects at greatest risk of death from suicide, which may be useful in reducing and preventing suicide and gaining a better clinical management of patients with SUDs.

Socio-economic differences in all-cause mortality in people with alcohol use disorder: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: While alcohol-attributable mortality rates are higher in low socio-economic status (SES) groups, less is known about SES differences in all-cause mortality in alcohol use disorder (AUD). The aim of this study was to explore whether there are SES differences in people with AUD, regarding (i) treatment admission, (ii) all-cause mortality risk and (iii) relative mortality risk. DESIGN AND SETTING: A prospective cohort study in Norway, follow-up period from 2009-10 to 2013. Data on SES and mortality were obtained through linkages to national registries, using national unique ID numbers. PARTICIPANTS: AUD patients (age 20+) admitted to treatment in 2009-10 (n = 11 726) and age and gender frequency-matched controls from the general population (n = 12 055). MEASUREMENTS: The SES indicator was education level (low, intermediate and high). Mortality was calculated as deaths per 1000 person-years during the 4-year observation period. FINDINGS: Admission to AUD treatment was elevated in the low compared with the high SES categories (OR = 3.31, 95% CI = 3.09, 3.55). Among AUD patients, mortality risk was elevated in the low SES category (HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.04, 1.45). Relative mortality risk from AUD was significantly higher in the high SES (HR = 8.65, 95% CI = 6.16, 12.14) compared with the low SES categories (HR = 3.29, 95% CI = 2.61, 4.15). CONCLUSION: Admission to treatment for alcohol use disorders in Norway appears to decrease with increasing socio-economic status, and relative mortality risk from alcohol use disorder appears to increase with increasing socio-economic status.

How many alcohol-attributable deaths and hospital admissions could be prevented by alternative pricing and taxation policies? Modelling impacts on alcohol consumption, revenues and related harms in Canada. / Réduction des décès et des hospitalisations dus à l'alcool grâce à des politiques fiscales et d'établissement des prix différentes? Modélisation des effets sur la consommation d'alcool, les revenus et les méfaits liés à l'alcool au Canada.

INTRODUCTION: In 2017, Canada increased alcohol excise taxes for the first time in over three decades. In this article, we describe a model to estimate various effects of additional tax and price policies that are predicted to improve health outcomes. METHODS: We obtained alcohol sales and taxation data for 2016/17 for all Canadian jurisdictions from Statistics Canada and product-level sales data for British Columbia. We modelled effects of alternative price and tax policies - revenue-neutral taxes, inflation-adjusted taxes and minimum unit prices (MUPs) - on consumption, revenues and harms. We used published price elasticities to estimate impacts on consumption and revenue and the International Model for Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP) to estimate impacts on alcohol-attributable mortality and morbidity. RESULTS: Other things being equal, revenue-neutral alcohol volumetric taxes (AVT) would have minimal influence on overall alcohol consumption and related harms. Inflation-adjusted AVT would result in 3.83% less consumption, 329 fewer deaths and 3762 fewer hospital admissions. A MUP of $1.75 per standard drink (equal to 17.05mL ethanol) would have reduced consumption by 8.68% in 2016, which in turn would have reduced the number of deaths by 732 and the number of hospitalizations by 8329 that year. Indexing alcohol excise taxes between 1991/92 and 2016/17 would have resulted in the federal government gaining approximately $10.97 billion. We estimated this could have prevented 4000-5400 deaths and 43 000-56 000 hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: Improved public health outcomes would be made possible by (1) increasing alcohol excise tax rates across all beverages to compensate for past failures to index rates, and (2) setting a MUP of at least $1.75 per standard drink. While reducing alcohol-caused harms, these tax policies would have the added benefit of increasing federal government revenues.

Assessing the contribution of alcohol-specific causes to socio-economic inequalities in mortality in England and Wales 2001-16.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: When measuring inequalities in health, public health and addiction research has tended to focus on differences in average life-span between socio-economic groups. This does not account for the extent to which age of death varies between individuals within socio-economic groups or whether this variation differs between groups. This study assesses (1) socio-economic inequalities in both average life-span and variation in age at death, (2) the extent to which these inequalities can be attributed to alcohol-specific causes (i.e. those attributable only to alcohol) and (3) how this contribution has changed over time. DESIGN: Cause-deleted life table analysis of national mortality records. SETTING: England and Wales, 2001-16. CASES: All-cause and alcohol-specific deaths for all adults aged 18+, stratified by sex, age and quintiles of the index of multiple deprivation (IMD). MEASUREMENTS: Life expectancy at age 18 yearss and standard deviation in age at death within IMD quintiles and the contribution of alcohol to overall differences in both measures between the highest and lowest IMD quintiles by comparing observed and cause-deleted inequality 'gaps'. FINDINGS: In 2016, alcohol-specific causes reduced life expectancy for men and women by 0.26 and 0.14 years, respectively, and increased the standard deviation in age at death. These causes also increased the inequality gap in life expectancy by 0.33 years for men and 0.17 years for women, and variation in age at death by 0.14 years and 0.13 years, respectively. For both measures, the contribution of alcohol to mortality inequalities rose after 2001 and subsequently fell back. For women, alcohol accounted for 3.6% of inequality in age at death and 6.0% of life-span uncertainty, suggesting that using only the former may underestimate alcohol-induced inequalities. There was no comparable difference for men. CONCLUSIONS: Deaths from alcohol-specific causes increase inequalities in both life expectancy and variation in age of death between socio-economic groups. Using both measures can provide a fuller picture of overall inequalities in health.

Changes in drug and alcohol-related mortality by educational status during the 2008-2011 economic crisis: Results from a Spanish longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to assess changes in drug- and alcohol-related mortality by educational attainment during the last financial crisis in Spain. METHODS: Data came from the 2001 Census Longitudinal Study. We included 22.2 million residents in Spain aged ≥35 at census date followed-up until December 2011. Outcomes were drug-related mortality (DRM) and deaths directly attributable to alcohol (DDA). Mortality risks before and during the crisis were assessed using age-standardized rates and educational inequalities by estimating age-adjusted Rate Ratios (RR) and Relative Indexes of inequality (RII) between educational groups. RESULTS: During the first four year of the crisis, DRM and DDA in men and women increased in all educational subgroups except for DRM in men with tertiary studies (-15%). The increase in mortality was larger in those with higher educational status, with women with tertiary studies experiencing the largest increases in DRM (+100%) and DDA (+114%). Mortality risks for both outcomes followed an educational gradient before and during the crisis in men and women, with those with primary studies being at higher risk. Absolute and relative measures of inequality decreased during the crisis, except for DRM in men. CONCLUSIONS: DRM and DDA follow an inverse educational gradient, with those with primary studies being at higher risk. During the last financial crisis, DRM decreased only in men with tertiary studies, with DRM and DDA increasing in all other groups. The increase was larger in those with higher educational status, reducing inequalities in all groups except of DRM in men.

Production Losses Associated with Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in the European Union.

The economic aspects of alcohol misuse are attracting increasing attention from policy makers and researchers but the evidence on the economic burden of this substance is hardly comparable internationally. This study aims to overcome this problem by estimating production losses (indirect costs) associated with alcohol-attributable mortality in 28 European Union (EU) countries in the year 2016. This study applies the prevalence-based top-down approach, societal perspective and human capital method to sex- and age-specific data on alcohol-related mortality at working age. The alcohol-attributable mortality data was taken from estimates based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Uniform data on labor and economic measures from the Eurostat database was used. The total production losses associated with alcohol-related deaths in the EU in 2016 were €32.1 billion. The per capita costs (share of costs in gross domestic product (GDP)) were €62.88 (0.215%) for the whole EU and ranged from €17.29 (0.062%) in Malta to €192.93 (0.875%) in Lithuania. On average, 81% of the losses were associated with male deaths and mortality among those aged 50-54 years generated the highest burden. Because alcohol is a major avoidable factor for mortality, public health community actions aimed at limiting this substance misuse might not only decrease the health burden but also contribute to the economic welfare of European societies.

Historical Persistence of Alcohol-Induced Mortality in the Russian Federations: Legacy of Early Industrialization.

AIMS: The study aims to investigate insofar regional differences in alcohol-induced mortality in Russia, which emerged during the early industrialization of the country, persisted over a prolonged period of time (from late nineteenth to early twenty-first century), surviving fundamental political and social changes Russia experienced. METHODS: Multivariate regression models with historical and contemporary data on alcohol-induced mortality in Russian regions were estimated to document the persistence of spatial patterns of mortality, as well as to identify the possible mediating variables. Numerous robustness checks were used to corroborate the results. RESULTS: Alcohol-induced male mortality in Russian regions in 1880s-1890s is significantly and strongly correlated with male mortality due to accidental alcohol poisoning in Russian regions in 2010-2012. For female mortality, no robust correlation was established. The results for male mortality do not change if one controls for a variety of other determinants of alcohol-induced mortality and are not driven by outlier regions. Consumption of strong alcohol (in particular vodka) appears to be the mediator variable explaining this persistence. CONCLUSIONS: Hazardous drinking behavioral patterns, once they emerge and crystalize during the periods of fragmentation of the traditional society and the early onsets of modernization and urbanization, can be extremely persistent. Even highly intrusive policy interventions at a later stage (like those of the Soviet government) may turn out to be insufficient to change the path-dependent outcomes.

Eliciting Health State Utilities Using Paired-Gamble Methods: The Role of the Starting Point.

BACKGROUND: Paired-gamble methods have been proposed to avoid the "certainty effect" associated with standard gamble methods. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the role of starting-point effects in paired-gamble methods. In particular, it examines how the utilities so derived vary as a function of the probabilities of the stimulus lottery. METHODS: A sample of 455 members of the Spanish general population valued 9 health states via face-to-face interviews. Subjects were randomly placed into 3 subgroups, which differed in terms of the stimulus gamble's probability. Nonparametric tests and an interval regression model were used to test if utilities change when the probability distribution is modified. RESULTS: Nonparametric tests showed that the probability of a health state being considered worse than death did not differ among subgroups. Nevertheless, changes in the stimulus gamble did produce significant differences in the distribution of utilities: the higher the probability of full health in the stimulus, the higher the utility elicited. Regression estimates support the existence of starting-point effects when the utilities are obtained under expected utility. According to the prospect theory, the conclusions depend on the reference point considered. When the reference points used are death or the health state evaluated, we observe differences among these groups. Nevertheless, when full health is used, these differences disappear. CONCLUSION: This research suggests that paired-gamble methods may also be susceptible to starting-point effects. Yet the differences are small, and they disappear when the data are analyzed using prospect theory with full health as the reference point.

Purchases of prescription drugs before an alcohol-related death: A ten-year follow-up study using linked routine data.

BACKGROUND: Physician's intention to prescribe drugs could potentially be used to improve targeting of alcohol interventions and enhanced disease management to patients with a high risk of severe alcohol-related harm within outpatient settings. METHODS: Comparison of ten-year incidence trajectories of 13.8 million reimbursed purchases of prescription drugs among 303,057 Finnish men and women of whom 7490 ultimately died due to alcohol-related causes (Alc+), 14,954 died without alcohol involvement (Alc-), and 280,613 survived until the end of 2007. RESULTS: 5-10 years before death, 88% of the persons with an Alc+ death had received prescription medication, and over two-thirds (69%) had at least one reimbursed purchase of drugs for the alimentary tract and metabolism, the cardiovascular system, or the nervous system. Among persons with an Alc+ death, the incidence rate (IR) for purchases of hypnotics, and sedatives was 1.38 times higher (95% confidence interval (CI):1.32,1.44) compared to those with an Alc- death, and 4.07 times higher (95%CI:3.92,4.22) compared to survivors; and the IR for purchases of anxiolytics was 1.40 times higher (95%CI:1.34,1.47) compared to those with an Alc- death, and 3.61 times higher (95%CI:3.48,3.78) compared to survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Using physician's intention to prescribe drugs affecting the alimentary tract and metabolism, cardiovascular system and nervous system could potentially be used to flag patients who might benefit from screening, targeted interventions or enhanced disease management. In particular, patients who are to be prescribed anxiolytics, hypnotics, and sedatives, and antidepressants may benefit from enhanced interventions targeted to problem drinking.

The burden of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality in Ottawa, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Alcohol-related morbidity and mortality are significant public health issues. The purpose of this study was to describe the prevalence and trends over time of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related morbidity and mortality; and public attitudes of alcohol use impacts on families and the community in Ottawa, Canada. METHODS: Prevalence (2013-2014) and trends (2000-2001 to 2013-2014) of alcohol use were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey. Data on paramedic responses (2015), emergency department (ED) visits (2013-2015), hospitalizations (2013-2015) and deaths (2007-2011) were used to quantify the acute and chronic health effects of alcohol in Ottawa. Qualitative data were obtained from the "Have Your Say" alcohol survey, an online survey of public attitudes on alcohol conducted in 2016. RESULTS: In 2013-2014, an estimated 595,300 (83%) Ottawa adults 19 years and older drank alcohol, 42% reported binge drinking in the past year. Heavy drinking increased from 15% in 2000-2001 to 20% in 2013-2014. In 2015, the Ottawa Paramedic Service responded to 2,060 calls directly attributable to alcohol. Between 2013 and 2015, there were an average of 6,100 ED visits and 1,270 hospitalizations per year due to alcohol. Annually, alcohol use results in at least 140 deaths in Ottawa. Men have higher rates of alcohol-attributable paramedic responses, ED visits, hospitalizations and deaths than women, and young adults have higher rates of alcohol-attributable paramedic responses. Qualitative data of public attitudes indicate that alcohol misuse has greater repercussions not only on those who drink, but also on the family and community. CONCLUSIONS: Results highlight the need for healthy public policy intended to encourage a culture of drinking in moderation in Ottawa to support lower risk alcohol use, particularly among men and young adults.

Heterogeneous Costs of Alcohol and Drug Problems Across Cities and Counties in California.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of economic and social costs related to alcohol and other drug (AOD) use and abuse are usually made at state and national levels. Ecological analyses demonstrate, however, that substantial variations exist in the incidence and prevalence of AOD use and problems including impaired driving, violence, and chronic disease between smaller geopolitical units like counties and cities. This study examines the ranges of these costs across counties and cities in California. METHODS: We used estimates of the incidence and prevalence of AOD use, abuse, and related problems to calculate costs in 2010 dollars for all 58 counties and an ecological sample of 50 cities with populations between 50,000 and 500,000 persons in California. The estimates were built from archival and public-use survey data collected at state, county, and city levels over the years from 2009 to 2010. RESULTS: Costs related to alcohol use and related problems exceeded those related to illegal drugs across all counties and most cities in the study. Substantial heterogeneities in costs were observed between cities within counties. CONCLUSIONS: AOD costs are heterogeneously distributed across counties and cities, reflecting the degree to which different populations are engaged in use and abuse across the state. These findings provide a strong argument for the distribution of treatment and prevention resources proportional to need.

Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Young people's health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young people's health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories. FINDINGS: The leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs. INTERPRETATION: Our findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young people's health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Contribution of excessive alcohol consumption to deaths and years of potential life lost in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Excessive alcohol consumption is a leading cause of premature mortality in the United States. The objectives of this study were to update national estimates of alcohol-attributable deaths (AAD) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the United States, calculate age-adjusted rates of AAD and YPLL in states, assess the contribution of AAD and YPLL to total deaths and YPLL among working-age adults, and estimate the number of deaths and YPLL among those younger than 21 years. METHODS: We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Alcohol-Related Disease Impact application for 2006-2010 to estimate total AAD and YPLL across 54 conditions for the United States, by sex and age. AAD and YPLL rates and the proportion of total deaths that were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption among working-age adults (20-64 y) were calculated for the United States and for individual states. RESULTS: From 2006 through 2010, an annual average of 87,798 (27.9/100,000 population) AAD and 2.5 million (831.6/100,000) YPLL occurred in the United States. Age-adjusted state AAD rates ranged from 51.2/100,000 in New Mexico to 19.1/100,000 in New Jersey. Among working-age adults, 9.8% of all deaths in the United States during this period were attributable to excessive drinking, and 69% of all AAD involved working-age adults. CONCLUSIONS: Excessive drinking accounted for 1 in 10 deaths among working-age adults in the United States. AAD rates vary across states, but excessive drinking remains a leading cause of premature mortality nationwide. Strategies recommended by the Community Preventive Services Task Force can help reduce excessive drinking and harms related to it.

The potential impact of increased treatment rates for alcohol dependence in the United Kingdom in 2004.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption has been linked to a considerable burden of disease in the United Kingdom (UK), with most of this burden due to heavy drinking and Alcohol Dependence (AD). However, AD is undertreated in the UK, with only 8% of those individuals with AD being treated in England and only 6% of those individuals with AD being treated in Scotland. Thus, the objective of this paper is to quantify the deaths that would have been avoided in the UK in 2004 if the treatment rate for AD had been increased. METHODS: Data on the prevalence of AD, alcohol consumption, and mortality were obtained from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey, the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, and the 2004 Global Burden of Disease study respectively. Data on the effectiveness of pharmacological treatment and Motivational Interviewing/Cognitive Behavioural Therapy were obtained from Cochrane reviews and meta-analyses. Simulations were used to model the number of deaths under different treatment scenarios. Sensitivity analyses were performed to model the effects of Brief Interventions and to examine the effect of using AD prevalence data obtained from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. RESULTS: In the UK, 320 female and 1,385 male deaths would have been avoided if treatment coverage of pharmacological treatment had been increased to 20%. This decrease in the number of deaths represents 7.9% of all alcohol-attributable deaths (7.0% of all alcohol-attributable deaths for women and 8.1% of all alcohol-attributable deaths for men). If we used lower AD prevalence rates obtained from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, then treatment coverage of pharmacological treatment in hospitals for 20% of the population with AD would have resulted in the avoidance of 529 deaths in 2004 (99 deaths avoided for women and 430 deaths avoided for men). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing AD treatment in the UK would have led to a large number of deaths being avoided in 2004. Increased AD treatment rates not only impact mortality but also impact upon the large burden of disability and morbidity attributable to AD, as well as the associated social and economic burdens.