Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. OBJECTIVE: We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. METHODS: We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. RESULTS: Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. CONCLUSION: We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Late cardiac assessment in children diagnosed with post-streptococcal reactive arthritis: a long term study.

OBJECTIVES: Unlike rheumatic fever (RF), the association of post-streptococcal reactive arthritis (PSRA) and carditis is controversial. The American Heart Association recommends anti-streptococcal prophylaxis for PSRA for one year, repeating echocardiogram and discontinuation of prophylaxis if normal. In this study the possibility of late cardiac involvement was investigated in a cohort of children with PSRA. METHODS: Children diagnosed with PSRA and followed at the Paediatric Rheumatology Units at two medical centres in Israel had echocardiography carried out by a paediatric cardiologist, at least 1 year following diagnosis. RESULTS: 146 patients with PSRA met the study criteria. Of these, 69 had undergone echocardiography 1-6.9 years (mean 3.6 years ± 1.5 years) after diagnosis. All had normal major parameters. Twenty (29.0%) patients had minimal cardiac findings, including 5 (7.2%) mild mitral insufficiency, 12 (17.4%) minimal mitral insufficiency, 2 (2.9%) mild tricuspid insufficiency and one patient (1.4%) had very mild, aortic insufficiency. Of the 77 patients who did not have echocardiography, 31 were randomly excluded from the initial study list, 26 refused to undergo echocardiography, and 20 were lost to follow-up. All were asymptomatic according to their medical record or telephone questionnaire. There were no significant differences in clinical or demographic data between those with or without echocardiography. CONCLUSIONS: No late cardiac involvement was found in our paediatric PSRA patients. Therefore, different approaches to antibiotic prophylaxis for PSRA and ARF are probably suggested. A prospective, controlled study is needed to definitively assess the necessity of prophylaxis in PSRA.

[Clinical and epidemiological analysis hospitalization indicators Ministry's of Defense of Ukraine servicemen with reactive arthritis].

Our researches showed high occurrence of the reactive arthritises among servicemen Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and improvement of the treatment outcomes of this patients during the last years.

Incidence and prevalence of juvenile arthritis in an urban population of southern Germany: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the incidence and prevalence of juvenile arthritis in a German urban population. METHODS: All 766 paediatricians, orthopaedists, and rheumatologists working in practices or outpatient clinics in 12 south German towns were asked to report all patients who consulted them for juvenile arthritis during the year 1995. Patients with continuing symptoms were followed up for 9-12 months to obtain a final diagnosis. Extended measures of quality control were taken to control for known biases. RESULTS: Of 457 reported cases, 294 were diagnosed with para-/postinfectious arthritis (PPA), 78 with juvenile chronic arthritis (JCA), and 18 with other forms of arthritis. Half of the PPA cases were classified as transient synovitis of the hip (SH). For JCA the reported annual incidence was 6.6 and the prevalence 14.8 per 100 000 subjects under 16 years of age. For PPA the reported incidence was 76 and the prevalence 4.4 per 100 000 subjects under 16. The incidence of rheumatic fever was clearly below 1 per 100 000 people under 16. A correction model was used to control for known biases and to adjust the estimates accordingly. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this first prospective study on the incidence and prevalence of juvenile arthritis in Germany are consistent with a retrospective study performed in the Berlin area. Based on these results it was estimated that the annual frequency of juvenile arthritis in Germany is as follows: 750-900 incident JCA cases, 21 000 incident SH cases, and 21 000 incidence cases of other forms of PPA a year. The number of incidence cases of rheumatic fever is expected to be markedly lower than 150 a year. The total prevalence is expected to be 3600-4350 JCA cases, 2250-3000 SH cases, and the same number of other forms of PPA.

The national database of the German Collaborative Arthritis Centres: I. Structure, aims, and patients.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the aims, principles, and content of the German rheumatological database and to present data on patient mix and healthcare provision for the year 1998. METHODS: The German rheumatological database contains clinical and patient derived data of the outpatients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases seen at one of the 24 collaborative arthritis centres. The case mix, institutional context, and demographic features of 25 653 patients from the year 1998 were analysed. RESULTS: 51% of the patients had rheumatoid arthritis, 23% seronegative spondyloarthropathies, including ankylosing spondylitis, psoriatic arthritis, and reactive arthritis, and 19% had vasculitis, including SLE (5%). The distribution of the age at onset of patients with RA with < or = 2 years' disease duration was comparable with recent incidence data from population studies. The case mix differed between university departments and rheumatology hospitals as well as individual practices. 65% of the male and 46% of the female patients at ages 18-60 were still in gainful employment, the rates of employment were 14% below the population rates for women, and 11% below those for men. 62% of all patients had seen a rheumatologist within the first year of disease, 73% within the first two years. Ankylosing spondylitis was seen in rheumatological care much later than all other diseases (only 39% within the first year). The mean number of contacts with a rheumatologist was five a year; rheumatologists in individual practices saw their patients seven times a year on the average. Together with visits to the non-specialist doctor mainly treating the patient, the mean number of visits to the doctor for a rheumatic condition was 20 a year. CONCLUSION: Large databases like this one give information about the patient case mix in different healthcare settings, about treatment practice, and about the consequences of disease. Patients treated in specialised rheumatology units in Germany are referred earlier than in the past, which probably reflects better regional cooperation due to the implementation of arthritis centres. University departments and outpatient clinics of rheumatology hospitals contribute considerably to the specialised care of patients with arthritis and connective tissue diseases.

Epidemiologic aspects, clinical features, and management of ankylosing spondylitis and reactive arthritis.

The generally reported prevalence of 0.1% to 0.2% for ankylosing spondylitis in the white population is probably too low, because it is based almost entirely on hospital records. The incidence and clinical presentation of ankylosing spondylitis have not changed during the past few decades. For reactive arthritis, the list of microbes recognized as triggering agents is continuously increasing. Reactive arthritis is divided into urogenic, enterogenic, respiratory tract-associated, and idiopathic arthritides. In addition, several microbial diseases may be accompanied by reactive arthritis, even though the identity of the causative agent is not always known. In the diagnosis of the spondyloarthropathies, definite progress has been made in developing classification criteria. Intensive research is going on to evaluate new therapies, with special attention to the use of antimicrobial agents for the treatment of reactive arthritis.