US Spending on Personal Health Care and Public Health, 1996-2013.

Importance: US health care spending has continued to increase, and now accounts for more than 17% of the US economy. Despite the size and growth of this spending, little is known about how spending on each condition varies by age and across time. Objective: To systematically and comprehensively estimate US spending on personal health care and public health, according to condition, age and sex group, and type of care. Design and Setting: Government budgets, insurance claims, facility surveys, household surveys, and official US records from 1996 through 2013 were collected and combined. In total, 183 sources of data were used to estimate spending for 155 conditions (including cancer, which was disaggregated into 29 conditions). For each record, spending was extracted, along with the age and sex of the patient, and the type of care. Spending was adjusted to reflect the health condition treated, rather than the primary diagnosis. Exposures: Encounter with US health care system. Main Outcomes and Measures: National spending estimates stratified by condition, age and sex group, and type of care. Results: From 1996 through 2013, $30.1 trillion of personal health care spending was disaggregated by 155 conditions, age and sex group, and type of care. Among these 155 conditions, diabetes had the highest health care spending in 2013, with an estimated $101.4 billion (uncertainty interval [UI], $96.7 billion-$106.5 billion) in spending, including 57.6% (UI, 53.8%-62.1%) spent on pharmaceuticals and 23.5% (UI, 21.7%-25.7%) spent on ambulatory care. Ischemic heart disease accounted for the second-highest amount of health care spending in 2013, with estimated spending of $88.1 billion (UI, $82.7 billion-$92.9 billion), and low back and neck pain accounted for the third-highest amount, with estimated health care spending of $87.6 billion (UI, $67.5 billion-$94.1 billion). The conditions with the highest spending levels varied by age, sex, type of care, and year. Personal health care spending increased for 143 of the 155 conditions from 1996 through 2013. Spending on low back and neck pain and on diabetes increased the most over the 18 years, by an estimated $57.2 billion (UI, $47.4 billion-$64.4 billion) and $64.4 billion (UI, $57.8 billion-$70.7 billion), respectively. From 1996 through 2013, spending on emergency care and retail pharmaceuticals increased at the fastest rates (6.4% [UI, 6.4%-6.4%] and 5.6% [UI, 5.6%-5.6%] annual growth rate, respectively), which were higher than annual rates for spending on inpatient care (2.8% [UI, 2.8%-2.8%] and nursing facility care (2.5% [UI, 2.5%-2.5%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Modeled estimates of US spending on personal health care and public health showed substantial increases from 1996 through 2013; with spending on diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and low back and neck pain accounting for the highest amounts of spending by disease category. The rate of change in annual spending varied considerably among different conditions and types of care. This information may have implications for efforts to control US health care spending.

Systematic evaluation of personal genome services for Japanese individuals.

Disease risk prediction (DRP) is one of the most important challenges in personal genome research. Although many direct-to-consumer genetic test (DTC) companies have begun to offer personal genome services for DRP, there is still no consensus on what constitutes a gold-standard service. Here, we systematically evaluated the distributions of DRPs from three DTC companies, that is, 23andMe, Navigenics and deCODEme, for 22 diseases using three Japanese samples. We systematically quantified and analyzed the differences between each DTC company's DRPs. Our independency test showed that the overall prediction results were correlated with each other, but not perfectly matched; less than onethird mismatching of the opposite direction occurred in eight diseases. Moreover, we found that the differences could mainly be attributed to four factors: (1) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) selection, (2) average risk estimation, (3) the disease risk calculation algorithm and (4) ethnicity adjustment. In particular, only 7.1% of SNPs over 22 diseases were reviewed by all three companies. Therefore, development of a universal core SNPs list for non-Caucasian samples will be important for achieving better prediction capacity for Japanese samples. This systematic methodology provides useful insights for improving the capacity of DRPs in future personal genome services.

What really matters in cancer?: Putting people back into the heart of cancer policy.

Twenty-first century cancer is framed by the biomedical revolution. The cancer patient today enters a world dominated by the success and failures of biomedical science from gene to statistic. By any measure, bibliometric, financial, media profile or simply the lingua franca of everyday discourse about cancer, biomedicine occupies the majority of the cultural discourse around cancer. Yet the reality is that patients are people who are diagnosed, treated, survive and die with cancer in a world bounded by their personal and social experiences. Others they have known with the disease shape their values and concepts. The social determinants of cancer are of far greater importance in terms of prevention, treatment and care than is acknowledged in policy terms. In light of the demographic trend of a rapidly ageing population, increasing costs of healthcare and the urgent need to be able to deliver affordable cancer care set against the population's almost insatiable ability to absorb all types of healthcare, there is an urgent need to redress policy balance in terms of both understanding the social determinants of cancer and bringing new insights into evidence-based national cancer planning and delivery of services.

National health spending in 2011: overall growth remains low, but some payers and services show signs of acceleration.

In 2011 US health care spending grew 3.9 percent to reach $2.7 trillion, marking the third consecutive year of relatively slow growth. Growth in national health spending closely tracked growth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 and 2011, and health spending as a share of GDP remained stable from 2009 through 2011, at 17.9 percent. Even as growth in spending at the national level has remained stable, personal health care spending growth accelerated in 2011 (from 3.7 percent to 4.1 percent), in part because of faster growth in spending for prescription drugs and physician and clinical services. There were also divergent trends in spending growth in 2011 depending on the payment source: Medicaid spending growth slowed, while growth in Medicare, private health insurance, and out-of-pocket spending accelerated. Overall, there was relatively slow growth in incomes, jobs, and GDP in 2011, which raises questions about whether US health care spending will rebound over the next few years as it typically has after past economic downturns.

The microeconomics of personalized medicine: today's challenge and tomorrow's promise.

'Personalized medicine' promises to increase the quality of clinical care and, in some cases, decrease health-care costs. Despite this, only a handful of diagnostic tests have made it to market, with mixed success. Historically, the challenges in this field were scientific. However, as discussed in this article, with the maturation of the '-omics' sciences, it now seems that the major barriers are increasingly related to economics. Overcoming the poor microeconomic alignment of incentives among key stakeholders is therefore crucial to catalysing the further development and adoption of personalized medicine, and we propose several actions that could help achieve this goal.

The disruptive nature of personalized medicine technologies: implications for the health care system.

Genomics technologies, notwithstanding rising complexity and low productivity to date, once translated to clinical care, promise significantly improved outcomes through cost-effective interventions and prevention. But, along the way, every business model and every stakeholder group will be challenged to adapt to the disruptions that will arise as our health care system seeks to embrace those technologies. This paper identifies many of the key issues and stakeholders to be directly effected, including payers, providers, and suppliers. An even greater challenge faces public policy makers if these technologies are to be optimized. Many of these issues are raised as well. Finally, the point is made that the greatest barriers are not necessarily raised by stakeholders but rather arise from the deepening complexity of the science itself, requiring a long-term, large, and consistent research commitment from both the public and private sectors - a commitment made harder by the indisputable need to reform the current health care system.

Molecular imaging and personalized medicine: an uncertain future.

The Food and Drug Administration has described their view of the role that imaging will play in the approval, and perhaps postapproval, use of new therapeutic drugs. The therapeutic drug industry and regulatory authorities have turned to imaging to help them achieve better efficiency and efficacy. We must extend this initiative by demonstrating that molecular imaging can also improve the efficiency and efficacy of routine treatment with these same drugs. The role of molecular imaging in personalized medicine, using targeted drugs in oncology, is very attractive because of the regional information that it provides (in many cases, with a functional or dynamic component), which cannot be provided by in vitro methods ("regional proteomics"). There is great potential for molecular imaging to play a major role in selecting appropriate patients and providing early proof of response, which is critical to addressing the conflict between the high price of treatment and limited reimbursement budgets. This is a new venture in both molecular imaging and targeted drugs. However, there are various regulatory, financial, and practical barriers that must be overcome to achieve this aim, in addition to the normal scientific challenges of drug discovery. There is an urgent need to reduce the cost (i.e., time and money) of developing imaging agents for routine clinical use. The mismatch between the current regulations and personalized medicine includes molecular imaging and requires the engagement of the regulatory authorities to correct. Therapeutic companies must be engaged early in the development of new targeted drugs and molecular imaging agents to improve the fit between the two drug types. Clinical trials must be performed to generate data that not only shows the efficacy of imaging plus therapy in a medical sense, but also in a financial sense. Molecular imaging must be accepted as not just good science but also as central to routine patient management in the personalized medicine of the future.

Personal health systems and value creation mechanisms in occupational health care.

Personal Health Systems are believed to have great business potential among citizens, but they might reach also an important market in occupational health care. However, in reaching the occupational health care market, it is important to understand the value creation and value configuration mechanisms of this particular market. This paper also claims that in such a business-to-business market service integrators are needed to compose for the various customers specific offerings combing a tailored variety of products and services to suit their specific needs.

Some perspectives on affordable healthcare systems in China.

Consistent with the global population trend, China is becoming an aging society. Over one-fifth of the world's elderly population (aged 65 and over) lives in China. Statistics show that the elderly populace in China constitutes 8% of the total population in 2006 and the percentage will be tripled to become 24% in 2050. As a result, there is inevitably an increase in the prevalence of chronic disease that accounted for almost 80% of all deaths in China in 2005. On the other hand, from 1978 to 2003, the total expenditure on healthcare in China increased from 11.02 billion RMB up to 658.41 billion RMB, and in terms of GDP, it is an increase from 3.04% to 5.62%. The annual average increase (12.1%) in healthcare investment is therefore even higher than the annual rate of GDP increase (9.38%) during the last two decades. Meeting the long-term healthcare needs of this growing elderly population and escalating healthcare expenditure pose a grim challenge to the current Chinese healthcare system and the solvency of state budgets. In fact, the healthcare services in China have become less accessible since the early 1980s when its costs soared up. The rising costs have prevented many Chinese people from seeking early medical care. The phenomenon has created a wide disparity in seeking healthcare between urban and rural areas. These trends are of particular concern to the elderly, who have higher healthcare needs yet lesser means to afford the services. Furthermore, according to the 3rd National Health Service Survey, 79.1% of rural residents and 44.8% of urban citizens did not have any form of medical insurance. Such a low percentage of coverage of medical insurance indicates that many people may not be able to afford medical services when they suffer from severe diseases. Therefore, there is a great need of a more effective and low-cost healthcare system. A new system that can allow multi-level, multi-dimensional and standardized healthcare services for urban and rural citizens is proposed based on the development of miniaturized, integrated, networked, digitalized, and smart (MINDS) medical devices. Different from the traditional healthcare systems, the new one should bridge individuals and hospitals through a four-layer (PHCH) system structure: wearable intelligent sensors and devices for p-Healthcare system (PHS), home healthcare system (HHS), community healthcare system (CHS), and hospital health information system (H2IS). This four-layer structure should ensure people be monitored by the new system as closely as it can, resulting in the novel transformation of the function of healthcare systems from symptoms treatment to early risk detection and prevention. The new system is of particular importance to the cost reduction of healthcare services. It can reduce the chance of individual providers taking advantage of the provider-patient information asymmetry to prescribe unnecessary or inappropriate (but profitable) care. It also allows people to self-monitor their health conditions at their convenience in an attempt to lighten the workload of doctors and nurses. Moreover, more people can benefit from the new system with much lower medical insurance fees due to the reduced risk of developing severe diseases through regular, long-term and effective monitoring of citizens' health conditions nation-wide.

Implications of pharmacogenomics for drug development and clinical practice.

Pharmacogenomics is likely to be among the first clinical applications of the Human Genome Project and is certain to have an enormous impact on the clinical practice of medicine. Herein, we discuss the potential implications of pharmacogenomics on the drug development process, including drug safety, productivity, market segmentation, market expansion, differentiation, and personalized health care. We also review 3 challenges facing the translation of pharmacogenomics into clinical practice: dependence on information technology, limited health care financing, and the scientific uncertainty surrounding validation of specific applications of the technology. To our knowledge, there is currently no formal agenda to promote and cultivate innovation, to develop progressive information technology, or to obtain the financing that would be required to advance the use of pharmacogenomic technologies in patient care. Although the potential of these technologies is driving change in the development of clinical sciences, it remains to be seen which health care systems level needs will be addressed.

National and regional differences in preparation for future care needs: a comparison of the United States and Germany.

Planning for future care needs is likely to be influenced by both policy and culture. We compared attitudes regarding the usefulness of planning ahead for future care needs, processes of preparation for these needs (becoming aware of the risk of future care needs, gathering information about available options, deciding on preferences, concrete planning), and outcomes of preparation (e.g., knowledge about services) in 294 East German, 288 West German, and 590 American seniors. American respondents had higher preparation scores. Compared to the size of national differences, differences between East and West German seniors were generally smaller. East Germans made fewer decisions on preferences and engaged in less concrete planning. Most of the national and regional differences in preparation for future care needs were reduced or eliminated by controlling for differences in the perceived usefulness of planning.

The future of highly personalized health care.

We can surely lean well towards the optimistic in envisioning health care. In the world 10-25 years ahead of us. This optimism is based on rapid developments in genomics, the essential basis of molecular medicine, and on advances in computer power. At the time of writing this paper, the Human Genome Project was planned to have a working draft by 2000 and indeed completion was announced on June 26th from Washington. This paper describes the situation and vision at that time. Though there has been much subsequent more thought about the influence of genomics on healthcare, the aspirations and visions have not fundamentally changed from those of 2000, except for the greater attention to practical details that comes from increased confidence in the practicality of the vision.