Health Impact Assessment in protected areas: a proposal for urban contexts in Brazil.

The use of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in the establishment of an urban protected area can enhance the positive impacts and mitigate the negative impacts resulting from its implementation. Brazil hosts some of the most important biodiversity hotspots in the world and the HIA may benefit biodiversity and human health. These areas are commonly created without any preceding survey to assess their impacts on health. Protected areas located in urban zones are essential to maintain environmental balance and quality of life in cities. It promotes positive impacts on health, providing ecosystem services and salutogenic benefits. However, they can generate negative impacts such as the violation of human rights, property speculation, spread of vectorial diseases, and psychosocial stress. Based on the identification of the potential impacts of urban protected areas on health and best practices, this qualitative and exploratory study justifies the use of HIA in urban protected areas, especially in the Brazil, and indicates the main elements for the construction of a methodological approach to contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals and one of its alternatives, the Buen Vivir approach.

Current status and influencing factors of policy identification in health impact assessment: a case study of Zhejiang Province.

BACKGROUND: Health impact assessment (HIA) is a procedure, method and tool for evaluating the potential health impacts of policies, plans and construction projects, as well as the distribution of these impacts on population. Majority of international studies on health impact assessment have focussed on conceptual papers or case evaluations, neglecting participants' views on policies. METHODS: A semi-structured interview with 30 health impact assessment experts was employed in this study, and the Nvivo software was utilized to analyse factors that influence policy identification. Subsequently, a multi-stage stratified random sampling method was adopted to survey 655 pilot staff members involved in health impact assessment in Zhejiang Province. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the current status and identify the factors influencing policy identification. In addition, hierarchical linear regression analysis and structural equation modelling were employed to determine the relationship between policy identification and influencing factors. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences were found among participants in the level of identification of policies across three dimensions. The policy sentiment dimension had the highest score (4.137 ± 0.664), followed by policy cognition (4.075 ± 0.632) and policy evaluation (3.631 ± 0.797) dimensions. Subject trust had a positive impact on policy cognition (ß = 0.503, P < 0.001), policy sentiment (ß = 0.504, P < 0.001) and policy evaluation (ß = 0.465, P < 0.001). Procedural justice had a positive impact on policy sentiment (ß = 0.085, P < 0.01) and policy evaluation (ß = 0.084, P < 0.05), but not policy cognition (ß = 0.056, P > 0.05). Policy identification is influenced by age and average monthly salary among other factors. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of subjective trust and procedural justice in policy identification of health impact assessment. They provide valuable insights to developing interventions to overcome barriers to the implementation and enhancement of global identification of policies. Going forward, cross-sectoral synergies, enhanced international communication and training to increase participants' trust in the policy should be optimized to improve health impact assessment. Additional measures should be taken, such as ensuring seamless communication channels, embedding health impact assessment in administrative mechanisms, and establishing strong oversight and grievance mechanisms to improve fairness and transparency in the implementation and results of health impact assessment.

Model Choice for Quantitative Health Impact Assessment and Modelling: An Expert Consultation and Narrative Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Health impact assessment (HIA) is a widely used process that aims to identify the health impacts, positive or negative, of a policy or intervention that is not necessarily placed in the health sector. Most HIAs are done prospectively and aim to forecast expected health impacts under assumed policy implementation. HIAs may quantitatively and/ or qualitatively assess health impacts, with this study focusing on the former. A variety of quantitative modelling methods exist that are used for forecasting health impacts, however, they differ in application area, data requirements, assumptions, risk modelling, complexities, limitations, strengths, and comprehensibility. We reviewed relevant models, so as to provide public health researchers with considerations for HIA model choice. METHODS: Based on an HIA expert consultation, combined with a narrative literature review, we identified the most relevant models that can be used for health impact forecasting. We narratively and comparatively reviewed the models, according to their fields of application, their configuration and purposes, counterfactual scenarios, underlying assumptions, health risk modelling, limitations and strengths. RESULTS: Seven relevant models for health impacts forecasting were identified, consisting of (i) comparative risk assessment (CRA), (ii) time series analysis (TSA), (iii) compartmental models (CMs), (iv) structural models (SMs), (v) agent-based models (ABMs), (vi) microsimulations (MS), and (vii) artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML). These models represent a variety in approaches and vary in the fields of HIA application, complexity and comprehensibility. We provide a set of criteria for HIA model choice. Researchers must consider that model input assumptions match the available data and parameter structures, the available resources, and that model outputs match the research question, meet expectations and are comprehensible to end-users. CONCLUSION: The reviewed models have specific characteristics, related to available data and parameter structures, computational implementation, interpretation and comprehensibility, which the researcher should critically consider before HIA model choice.

The role of ecotoxicology in the health impact assessment: an innovative ecosystem approach for the protection of human health in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a procedure with the aim to protect the populations exposed to the impacts deriving from the establishment or upgrading of large industrial enterprises, i.e. large combustion plants (>300 MWth). In Italy a guideline for the HIA procedure has been published in compliance with the 2014/52/EU Directive on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requirements. Italian HIA procedure. An ecotoxicological approach has been included for the first time in the HIA procedure with the aim to detect toxic effects caused by unknown not-monitored contaminants or mixtures in the ecosystem components affected by the potential emissions, discharges and releases of large industrial enterprises. Ecotoxicology plays an important bridge role between environment and human health in the scoping and monitoring step of the HIA procedure with a key function of early warning system and screening. The aim of this paper is to present the Italian experience in the first three years of the application of the new approach, proposing recommendations on specific case studies. Conclusion and future perspective. 80% of enterprises, that applied HIA, have delivered a robust, integrated and detailed documentation in relation to the ecotoxicological assessment, this positive feedback will generate environmental and human health benefits to the areas where the plants are established.

Implementation of Health Impact Assessment in the Healthcare System of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

The Health Impact Assessment (hereinafter referred to as HIA) is an effective method for predicting potential health impacts from decisions. Little is known about the implementation of the HIA in the Republic of Kazakhstan (further, RK). In addition, the Russian language literature has not yet been reviewed in terms of HIA-related knowledge. By conducting a literature review of enabling factors, including Russian language literature, on the implementation of the HIA and studying governance systems in RK, we aim to suggest an implementation process to implement the HIA in RK. After careful analysis of the governance system, we suggest set up of a HIA support unit under the National Scientific Center for Health Development and discuss the possible benefits. The proposed center should guide the implementation of the HIA in RK.

Health impact assessment of local policies: methodology and tools.

The aim of this work was to design some tools and a procedure for performing the Health Impact Assessment of municipal policies. A working group made up of municipal and public health specialists from the Valencian Community (Spain) was set up. After reviewing the tools used in other contexts, the Fem Salut? questionnaire for the simplified Health Impact Assessment of regional policies was adapted for use at the local level. A pilot study was carried out in six municipalities and local initiatives promoted by different sectors were analysed. Two workshops were held per municipality (with specialists and with citizens) and participatory techniques were used to identify the possible impacts on the social determinants of health, the population groups more particularly affected and the proposals for improvement. The feasibility of the methodology and the difficulties involved in carrying it out were discussed. A procedure was defined for the Health Impact Assessment of local initiatives in six steps: Describe (the municipality and the project), Extract (screening phase), Co-produce (participatory workshops), Integrate (the scientific evidence with the qualitative information obtained), Disseminate (to politicians, specialists and community) and Evaluate (direct and indirect results) (DECIDE). A guide was developed to facilitate its application at the local level along with two complementary tools (a questionnaire and worksheets). The technical group rated the process as simple and flexible, as well as being easy to adapt to the characteristics of the municipality and project. In addition to the cross-sectoral approach, the incorporation of citizen participation in the process is an important added value.

Health impact assessment should be based on correct methods.

The methodology of health impact assessment (HIA), originally proposed by WHO, is widely used to predict the potential health effects in a community living in a place in which a new project (e.g., an industrial plant) will be implemented. One of the key quantities to calculate the impact (i.e., the number of attributable cases) is the baseline (i.e., before the project implementation) rate of selected diseases in the community. In a recent paper on this journal, this methodology has been challenged. Specifically, the use of baseline rate has been questioned, proposing to use only the fraction of the baseline rate due to the exposures related to the project, and not the rate due to all risk factors for the disease. In this commentary, we argue that the proposal is logically and epidemiologically unsound, and devoid of scientific motivation. The conclusion that the traditional approach overestimates the health impact should be rejected as based on flawed assumptions. On the contrary, the proposal may produce a (seriously biased) underestimation of attributable cases.

Health Impact Assessment: A Missed Opportunity for MCH Professionals in Their Quest to Address the Social Determinants of Health.

INTRODUCTION: Public health professionals, especially ones concerned with maternal and child health (MCH), need to engage in cross-sector collaborations to address social determinants of health. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) systematically brings public health perspectives into non-health decision-making contexts that influence social determinants. Alignment of MCH and HIA practice has not previously been documented. METHODS: An exploratory review of HIAs conducted in the United States considered several dimensions of MCH-HIA alignment and produced data to test the hypothesis that HIAs involving MCH stakeholders are more likely to address MCH populations and relevant measures. The review examined three key variables for each HIA: inclusion of MCH-focused stakeholders, level of focus on MCH populations, and presence of MCH-relevant content. RESULTS: Of the 424 HIAs included in the database of US HIAs, 350 were included in this review. Twenty-four percent (84) included MCH-focused stakeholders, and 42% (148) focused on MCH populations. Ninety percent (317) included metrics or content relevant to at least one Title V National Performance Measure (NPM). HIAs that clearly included MCH stakeholders had seven times the odds of including both a focus on MCH populations and at least one NPM-relevant topic compared to HIAs that did not clearly include MCH stakeholders (OR 6.98; 95% CI 3.99, 12.20). DISCUSSION: Despite low engagement of MCH stakeholders in HIAs, many still consider MCH populations and measures. Intentional engagement of MCH workforce in HIAs could ensure greater alignment with existing MCH priorities (such as addressing the social determinants of health and equity) in a given jurisdiction.

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Multiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario. We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends. The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses. This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

Opportunities for Closing the Gap in HIV Diagnosis, Treatment, and Viral Load Suppression in Children in Malawi: Results From a 2015-2016 Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Survey.

BACKGROUND: Control of the pediatric HIV epidemic is hampered by gaps in diagnosis and linkage to effective treatment. The 2015-2016 Malawi Population-based HIV impact assessment data were analyzed to identify gaps in pediatric HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral load suppression. METHODS: In half of the surveyed households, children ages ≥18 months to <15 years were tested using the national HIV rapid test algorithm. Children ≤18 months reactive by the initial rapid test underwent HIV total nucleic acid polymerase chain reaction confirmatory testing. Blood from HIV-positive children was tested for viral load (VL) and presence of antiretroviral drugs. HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment (ART) use were defined using guardian-reporting or antiretroviral detection. RESULTS: Of the 6166 children tested, 99 were HIV-positive for a prevalence of 1.5% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.1-1.9) and 8.0% (95% CI: 5.6-10.5) among HIV-exposed children. The prevalence of 1.5% was extrapolated to a national estimate of 119,501 (95% CI: 89,028-149,974) children living with HIV (CLHIV), of whom, 30.7% (95% CI: 20.3-41.1) were previously undiagnosed. Of the 69.3% diagnosed CLHIV, 86.1% (95% CI: 76.8-95.6) were on ART and 57.9% (95% CI: 41.4-74.4) of those on ART had suppressed VL (<1000 HIV RNA copies/mL). Among all CLHIV, irrespective of HIV diagnosis or ART use, 57.7% (95% CI: 45.0-70.5) had unsuppressed VL. CONCLUSIONS: Critical gaps in HIV diagnosis in children persist in Malawi. The large proportion of CLHIV with unsuppressed VL reflects gaps in diagnosis and need for more effective first- and second-line ART regimens and adherence interventions.

Urban transport infrastructure planning and the public interest: a public health perspective.

OBJECTIVE: Transport infrastructure impacts public health. WestConnex in Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), is Australia's largest and most expensive transport infrastructure project. Concerns about the motorway project resulted in a NSW parliamentary inquiry into the project's impacts. Submissions to the inquiry were analysed to investigate their emphasis on health impacts and the cost-benefit analysis underpinning the project's business case. STUDY TYPE: Quantitative content and qualitative thematic analysis. METHODS: There were 556 submissions made to the inquiry into the impact of the WestConnex project. The content of a random sample of 93 (20%) of the individual submissions was analysed to identify health concerns. A purposive sample of 81 submissions by named groups including political parties and organisations was analysed separately (15% of the total submissions). RESULTS: Most individual submissions (63%) mentioned at least one aspect of health. Air pollution and children's health were the most frequently mentioned health issues. In the purposive sample, most submissions (64%) concerned the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), including concerns that the health impacts were being underestimated and economic benefits overestimated in the CBA. CONCLUSIONS: This study on the WestConnex project demonstrates how health impacts require early consideration within business cases for urban infrastructure projects, and later during environmental impact assessment. Systems for communicating and involving the public in decision making need to be improved, alongside greater transparency in CBA early in the project planning cycle.

The price of precision: trade-offs between usability and validity in the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool for walking and cycling.

OBJECTIVES: The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. This article attempts to assess the effect of incorporating 'life-years' as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model and assess the effect on the tool's usability. STUDY DESIGN: This article is a methods paper, using simulation to estimate the effect of a methodological change to the HEAT 4.2 physical activity module. METHODS: We use the widely used WHO HEAT for walking and cycling as a case study. HEAT currently quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. We assess the effect of incorporating "duration of life gained" as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model without substantially affecting usability or increasing data requirements. RESULTS: Compared with the existing tool (HEAT version 4.2), which values premature deaths avoided, estimates derived by valuing life-years gained are more sensitive to the age of the population affected by an intervention, with results for older and younger age groups being markedly different between the two methods. This is likely to improve the precision of the tool, especially where it is applied to interventions that affect age groups differentially. The life-years method requires additional background data (obtained and used in this analysis) and minimal additional user inputs; however, this may also make the tool harder to explain to users. CONCLUSIONS: Methodological improvements in the precision of widely used tools, such as the HEAT, may also inadvertently reduce their practical usability. It is therefore important to consider the overall impact on the tool's value to stakeholders and explore ways of mitigating potential reductions in usability.

Avaliação da Qualidade de Vida da Pessoa com Deficiência: revisão sistemática da literatura / Assessment of the Quality of Life of People with Disabilities: A systematic review of the literature / Evaluación de la calidad de vida de las personas con discapacidad: una revisión sistemática de la literatura

Introdução: O conceito de Qualidade de Vida (QV) é referência central na produção do cuidado integral à saúde da Pessoa com Deficiência (PcD). Objetivo: Realizar a revisão sistemática da produção científica sobre QV de PcD, no período de 2009 a 2019. Método: Identificação de artigos mediante buscas simples e booleana pelos descritores - deficiência/pessoa com deficiência/disabled persons /persons with disabilities; avaliação/assessment/evaluation; qualidade de vida/quality of life; avaliação da qualidade de vida/assessment of quality of life, nas bases LILACS, SciELO, Cochrane Library, PubMed/MedLine e Google Acadêmico. Resultados: Atenderam aos critérios de seleção e foram submetidos à análise de conteúdo 19 estudos. Desses, 13 utilizaram os instrumentos criados pela OMS: dois WHOQOL-100 e sete sua versão abreviada o WHOQOL-bref; um WHOQOL-OLD - módulo complementar para avaliação de pessoas idosas; uma versão Stroke-Specific Quality of Life Scale - SSQOL - específica para pessoas com acidente vascular cerebral; um o WHOQOL-DIS - específico para PcD motora e intelectual e um estudo o WHODAS 2.0. Entre os restantes um estudo usou o SF-36; um Kidscreen; um GENCAT; um QoL-Q (QQV em português) e um PedsQL versão 4.0. Conclusão: Os instrumentos genéricos são os mais utilizados. Eles permitem comparações da QV da PcD com outras populações, mas não permitem a observação mais aprofundada de suas especificidades. Se o objetivo da pesquisa for obter informações sobre dimensões a serem preconizadas no cuidado em saúde da PcDs é recomendável que sejam utilizados instrumentos específicos, que destacam as dimensões física, psicológica/emocional, relações sociais e meio ambiente, além dos aspectos autonomia, autodeterminação, inclusão, direitos da PcD.

Introduction: The concept of quality of life (QOL) is a central reference when producing comprehensive health care for people with disabilities (PWD). Objective: To conduct a systematic review of the scientific production on the QOL of PWD from 2009 to 2019. Method: Identification of articles through simple and Boolean search with the descriptors: deficiência/pessoa com deficiência/disabled persons /persons with disabilities; avaliação/assessment/evaluation; qualidade de vida/quality of life; avaliação da qualidade de vida/assessment of the quality of life, in LILACS, SciELO, Cochrane Library, PubMed/MEDLINE, and Google Scholar. Results: A total of 19 studies met the selection criteria and were submitted to content analysis. Of these, 13 used instruments created by WHO: two used WHOQOL-100, and seven, its abbreviated version, WHOQOL-BREF; one, WHOQOL-OLD ­ add-on module to assess older adults; one, the Stroke-Specific Quality of Life Scale ­ SS-QOL ­ specific for people with a stroke; one, WHOQOL-DIS ­ specific for people with motor and intellectual disability; and one, WHODAS 2.0. Of the others, one study used the SF-36; one, Kidscreen; one, GENCAT; one QOL- Q; and one, PedsQL 4.0. Conclusion: The generic instruments are the most used. They allow for the comparison of QOL of PWD with that of other populations, though more in-depth observation of their specificities is not made possible. If the research aims to obtain information on dimensions to be recommended in the health care of PWD, they should use specific instruments, which highlight the physical, psychological/emotional, social relationships, and environmental dimensions, besides the autonomy, self-determination, inclusion, and rights of the PWD.

Introducción: El concepto de calidad de vida (QOL) es una referencia central en la producción de atención integral de salud para Personas con Discapacidad (PcD). Objetivo: llevar a cabo una revisión sistemática de la producción científica sobre la calidad de vida de las personas con discapacidad, en el período de 2009 a 2019. Método: identificación de artículos mediante búsquedas simples y booleanas por los descriptores - discapacidad/personas con discapacidad/personas con discapacidad; evaluación; qalidad de vida/qalidad de vida/evaluación de calidad de vida/ evaluación de qalidad de vida basada en LILACS, SciELO, Cochrane Library-, PubMed/MedLine y Google Scholar. Resultados: cumplieron con los criterios de selección y fueron enviados análisis de contenido 19 estudios. De estos, 13 utilizaron los instrumentos creados por la OMS: dos WHOQOL-100 y siete su versión abreviada WHOQOL-bref; uno WHOQOL-OLD - módulo complementario para evaluar a las personas mayores; uno la versión de la Escala de calidad de vida específica para el accidente cerebrovascular - SSQOL - específica para personas con accidente cerebrovascular; uno WHOQOL-DIS - específico para PwD motor e intelectual y uno WHODAS 2.0. Entre el resto se utilizaron: uno SF-36; uno pantalla para niños; uno GENCAT; uno QoL-Q (QQV en portugués) y uno PedsQL versión 4. Conclusión: Los instrumentos genéricos son los más utilizados. Permiten comparaciones de QoL de PcD con otras poblaciones, pero no permiten una observación más detallada de sus especificidades. Si el objetivo del estudio es obtener información sobre las dimensiones que se promoverán en la atención de la salud de las personas con discapacidad, se recomienda utilizar instrumentos específicos que resalten las dimensiones físicas, psicológicas / emocionales, de las relaciones sociales y del entorno, además de los aspectos de autonomía, autodeterminación , inclusión, derechos de PcD.

Anticipated health effects and proposed countermeasures following the immediate introduction of telework in response to the spread of COVID-19: The findings of a rapid health impact assessment in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: The health effects of telework, which was introduced extensively in the immediate context of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in Japan, on teleworkers, their families, and non-teleworkers, are unknown. Accordingly, we developed a rapid health impact assessment (HIA) to evaluate positive and negative health effects of telework on these groups and recommended easily implementable countermeasures. METHODS: Immediately after an emergency was declared in Japan, we implemented a rapid, five-step HIA. We screened and categorized health effects of telework for the three above-mentioned groups, extracting their content, directionality, and likelihood. Following a scoping exercise to determine the HIA's overall implementation, five experienced occupational health physicians appraised and prioritized the screened items and added new items. We outlined specific countermeasures and disseminated the results on our website. A short-term evaluation was conducted by three external occupational health physicians and three nurses. RESULTS: Following screening and appraisal, 59, 29, and 27 items were listed for teleworkers, non-teleworkers, and family members of teleworkers, respectively, covering work, lifestyle, disease and medical care, and home and community. Targeted countermeasures focused on the work environment, business management, communications, and lifestyles for teleworkers; safety and medical guidelines, work prioritization, and regular communication for non-teleworkers; and shared responsibilities within families and communication outside families for family members of teleworkers. CONCLUSION: The HIA's validity and the countermeasures' practical applicability were confirmed by the external evaluators. They can be easily applied and adapted across diverse industries to mitigate the wider negative effects of telework and enhance its positive effects.

Health impact assessment to predict the impact of tobacco price increases on COPD burden in Italy, England and Sweden.

Raising tobacco prices effectively reduces smoking, the main risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using the Health Impact Assessment tool "DYNAMO-HIA", this study quantified the reduction in COPD burden that would occur in Italy, England and Sweden over 40 years if tobacco prices were increased by 5%, 10% and 20% over current local prices, with larger increases considered in secondary analyses. A dynamic Markov-based multi-state simulation modelling approach estimated the effect of changes in smoking prevalence states and probabilities of transitioning between smoking states on future smoking prevalence, COPD burden and life expectancy in each country. Data inputs included demographics, smoking prevalences and behaviour and COPD burden from national data resources, large observational cohorts and datasets within DYNAMO-HIA. In the 20% price increase scenario, the cumulative number of COPD incident cases saved over 40 years was 479,059 and 479,302 in Italy and England (populous countries with higher smoking prevalences) and 83,694 in Sweden (smaller country with lower smoking prevalence). Gains in overall life expectancy ranged from 0.25 to 0.45 years for a 20 year-old. Increasing tobacco prices would reduce COPD burden and increase life expectancy through smoking behavior changes, with modest but important public health benefits observed in all three countries.

Assessment of Relative Asthma Risk in Populations Living Near Incineration Facilities in Seoul, Korea.

While incineration is among the most commonly used technologies for waste disposal, there is ongoing public concern regarding the adverse health impact. The aim of this study is thus to use health statistics to assess the relative risk of asthma-related hospitalization for those living in close proximity to incineration facilities. We also examine differences in asthma risk related to age demographics. The spatial relationship between incineration facilities and asthma-related hospital admissions in Seoul is analyzed for the period of 2009-2011 using the Rapid Inquiry Facility (RIF) and SaTScan software. The relative risk of asthma-related hospitalization decreased with increasing distance from incinerators, but increased among those living within a 2-km radius. The relative risks of asthma-related hospitalization were 1.13 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.17), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08-1.17), and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10-1.27) for all ages, those aged below 15 years, and those aged 65 years and older, respectively. This study is the first to observe an increased risk of asthma-related hospitalization in relation to a person's distance from an incinerator in Seoul, Korea. It is clear that asthma should be considered an adverse health outcome during health impact assessments of incineration plants.

Integrated Impact Assessment of Active Travel: Expanding the Scope of the Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for Walking and Cycling.

The World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling is a user-friendly web-based tool to assess the health impacts of active travel. HEAT, developed over 10 years ago, has been used by researchers, planners and policymakers alike in appraisals of walking and cycling policies at both national and more local scales. HEAT has undergone regular upgrades adopting the latest scientific evidence. This article presents the most recent upgrades of the tool. The health impacts of walking and/or cycling in a specified population are quantified in terms of premature deaths avoided (or caused). In addition to the calculation of benefits derived from physical activity, HEAT was recently expanded to include assessments of the burden associated with air pollution exposure and crash risks while walking or cycling. Further, the impacts on carbon emissions from mode shifts to active travel modes can now be assessed. The monetization of impacts using Value of Statistical Life and Social Costs of Carbon now uses country-specific values. As active travel inherently results in often substantial health benefits as well as not always negligible risks, assessments of active travel behavior or policies are incomplete without considering health implications. The recent developments of HEAT make it easier than ever to obtain ballpark estimates of health impacts and carbon emissions related to walking and cycling.

Process, Practice and Progress: A Case Study of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of Brexit in Wales.

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a systematic and flexible tool, which is advocated by the World Health Organisation as a method through which to consider the impact of policies on the health and well-being of a population, and the inequalities that may arise because of it. In 2018, the HIA support unit in Wales carried out a comprehensive and unique HIA on the impact of Brexit in Wales. The aims were to understand the differential impacts that Brexit would have on the health and well-being of the population and to provide evidence to inform decision makers across a range of public bodies. It followed a five-step process for HIA and utilised a wide range of evidence sources and health intelligence including both quantitative and qualitative evidence. This paper reflects on the process of carrying out the HIA and the methods used. It discusses the stages of the HIA, and shares the findings and reflections of implementation which will be beneficial to other HIA practitioners and policy makers. It does not concentrate on the findings of the HIA in detail, but focusses on what worked and any challenges encountered. It has been used to progress the practice of HIA in Wales and demonstrates the value of HIA as a method to inform and influence complex decisions.

Current and future burden of obesity in the Hungarian Roma population II. / Az elhízás jelenlegi és prognosztizált betegségterhe a magyarországi romák körében II.

INTRODUCTION: Population-specific obesity in different age groups and in the Roma population as well as the presence of noncommunicable diseases that are linked to obesity necessitate the development of ethnical-specific prevention and intervention programmes. AIM: Our goal is to model the effects on nutritional status of interventional programmes of different intensities carried out in various age groups of the Roma population. METHOD: We defined the effect of different public health interventions on the state of health of the Roma population by use of the Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment software. Two models of interventions were studied throughout our research: one that focuses on only one aspect of lifestyle changes; and one that includes radical prevention programmes that aim to change lifestyles as a whole and have an impact on nutritional status. RESULTS: Nearly 20% of Roma men and women are obese, and by 2070, one third of the Roma population will be overweight or obese without any public health intervention. Not even when the most efficient proceedings of the scientific literature are applied do prevention-intervention programmes of moderate-intensity offer a perceptible result about the incidence and prevalence of diseases linked to obesity. In the case of application of these programs, not more than a ten-person order of magnitude decrease can be achieved. This is not enough to prove a statistical detectability on the population level. Whereas, complex intervention programmes, based on a comprehensive transformation of lifestyle and food consumption patterns can present perceptible outcome primarily among the middle-aged and the elderly. CONCLUSION: The survey results direct attention to the fact that reducing the burden of disease in the Roma population caused by obesity is only to be achieved as a complex, all-councils act that requires resources much greater than what is available now. Orv Hetil. 2020; 161(27): 1137-1145.