Seafloor primary production in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Phytoplankton and sea ice algae are traditionally considered to be the main primary producers in the Arctic Ocean. In this Perspective, we explore the importance of benthic primary producers (BPPs) encompassing microalgae, macroalgae, and seagrasses, which represent a poorly quantified source of Arctic marine primary production. Despite scarce observations, models predict that BPPs are widespread, colonizing ~3 million km2 of the extensive Arctic coastal and shelf seas. Using a synthesis of published data and a novel model, we estimate that BPPs currently contribute ~77 Tg C y-1 of primary production to the Arctic, equivalent to ~20 to 35% of annual phytoplankton production. Macroalgae contribute ~43 Tg C y-1, seagrasses contribute ~23 Tg C y-1, and microalgae-dominated shelf habitats contribute ~11 to 16 Tg C y-1. Since 2003, the Arctic seafloor area exposed to sunlight has increased by ~47,000 km2 y-1, expanding the realm of BPPs in a warming Arctic. Increased macrophyte abundance and productivity is expected along Arctic coastlines with continued ocean warming and sea ice loss. However, microalgal benthic primary production has increased in only a few shelf regions despite substantial sea ice loss over the past 20 y, as higher solar irradiance in the ice-free ocean is counterbalanced by reduced water transparency. This suggests complex impacts of climate change on Arctic light availability and marine primary production. Despite significant knowledge gaps on Arctic BPPs, their widespread presence and obvious contribution to coastal and shelf ecosystem production call for further investigation and for their inclusion in Arctic ecosystem models and carbon budgets.

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

Climate change is influencing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

A comprehensive satellite-based assessment across the Pacific Arctic Distributed Biological Observatory shows widespread late-season sea surface warming and sea ice declines with significant influences on primary productivity.

Massive declines in sea ice cover and widespread warming seawaters across the Pacific Arctic region over the past several decades have resulted in profound shifts in marine ecosystems that have cascaded throughout all trophic levels. The Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) provides sampling infrastructure for a latitudinal gradient of biological "hotspot" regions across the Pacific Arctic region, with eight sites spanning the northern Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. The purpose of this study is two-fold: (a) to provide an assessment of satellite-based environmental variables for the eight DBO sites (including sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration, annual sea ice persistence and the timing of sea ice breakup/formation, chlorophyll-a concentrations, primary productivity, and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR)) as well as their trends across the 2003-2020 time period; and (b) to assess the importance of sea ice presence/open water for influencing primary productivity across the region and for the eight DBO sites in particular. While we observe significant trends in SST, sea ice, and chlorophyll-a/primary productivity throughout the year, the most significant and synoptic trends for the DBO sites have been those during late summer and autumn (warming SST during October/November, later shifts in the timing of sea ice formation, and increases in chlorophyll-a/primary productivity during August/September). Those DBO sites where significant increases in annual primary productivity over the 2003-2020 time period have been observed include DBO1 in the Bering Sea (37.7 g C/m2/year/decade), DBO3 in the Chukchi Sea (48.0 g C/m2/year/decade), and DBO8 in the Beaufort Sea (38.8 g C/m2/year/decade). The length of the open water season explains the variance of annual primary productivity most strongly for sites DBO3 (74%), DBO4 in the Chukchi Sea (79%), and DBO6 in the Beaufort Sea (78%), with DBO3 influenced most strongly with each day of additional increased open water (3.8 g C/m2/year per day). These synoptic satellite-based observations across the suite of DBO sites will provide the legacy groundwork necessary to track additional and inevitable future physical and biological change across the region in response to ongoing climate warming.

[Characteristics of climate change and its impacts on water resources in Qilian Mountains, China]. / ç¥è¿žå±±æ°”å€™å˜åŒ–ç‰¹å¾åŠå ¶å¯¹æ°´èµ„æºçš„å½±å“.

Qilian Mountains, is an important ecological function area, an important ecological security barrier, the river runoff region in Northwest China, as well as a sensitive area to global climate change and fragile area of ecological environment. The ecological environment in this area played an important role in the economic development of Northwest China. Based on the observation data of temperature and precipitation in Qilian Mountains, MOD10A2 snow products and the flow data of Shiyang River, Heihe River and Shule River, we systematically analyzed the characteristics of climate change from 1961 to 2020, and the impacts of climate change on water resources under the scenario of climate warming. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2020, the annual average temperature increased significantly, with the rate reaching 0.39 ℃·(10 a)-1. The warming rate was the highest in the western part of Qilian Mountains, followed by the middle and eastern regions. The warming trend was the strongest in winter and the lowest in spring. The average temperature changed abruptly in 1997. The annual average precipitation increased with flucturation, with a rate of 10 mm·(10 a)-1, which increased most obviously in the middle of Qilian Mountains. After 2004, it entered a rainy period, with a warm and humid trend. The precipitation in the four seasons showed an increasing trend and the increase of precipitation in summer contributed the most to the annual precipitation. Annual precipitation was dominated by interannual scale change, and the contribution rate of 2.8-year was approximately 64.3%. The snow cover of Qilian Mountains was obviously affected by temperature and snowfall, which was negatively correlated with summer temperature and positively correlated with snowfall. From 2016 to 2020, the temperature increase had slowed down in Qilian Mountains, the snowfall had increased, and the snow cover tended to increase. After 2000, the temperature and precipitation increased more obviously, the meltwater from glacier and snow increased, the mountainous runoff of Shiyang River, Heihe River and Shule River had an increasing trend. Our findings are of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization and coping with climate change in Qilian Mountains.

Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) could contribute metres to global sea level rise (SLR) in the long run. We couple models of AIS melting due to rising temperatures, SLR, and economic impacts of SLR on coastlines worldwide. We report SLR projections close to the latest literature. Coastal impacts of AIS melting are very heterogeneous: they are large as a share of GDP in one to two dozen countries, primarily Small Island Developing States. Costs can be reduced dramatically by economically efficient, proactive coastal planning: relative to a no adaptation scenario, optimal adaptation reduces total costs by roughly an order of magnitude. AIS melting increases the social cost of carbon by an expected 7% on low to medium emissions scenarios and with moderate discounting. There is a tail risk of very large increases in the social cost of carbon, particularly on a high emissions scenario.

Polar amplification comparison among Earth's three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature.

The polar amplification (PA) has become the focus of climate change. However, there are seldom comparisons of amplification among Earth's three poles of Arctic (latitude higher than 60 °N), Antarctica (Antarctic Ice Sheet) and the Third Pole (the High Mountain Asia with the elevation higher than 4000 m) under different socioeconomic scenarios. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, two types of PA index (PAI) have been defined to quantify the PA intensity and variations, and PAI1/PAI2 is defined as the ratio of the absolute value of surface air temperature linear trend over Earth's three poles and that for global mean/over other regions except Earth's three poles. Arctic warms fastest in winter and weakest in summer, followed by the Third Pole, and Antarctica warms least. The similar phenomenon proceeds when global warming of 1.5-2.0 °C, and 2.0-3.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. After removing the Earth's three poles self-influence, all the PAI2s increase much more obviously relative to the PAI1s, especially the Antarctic PAI. Earth's three poles warm faster than the other regions. With the forcing increasing, PA accelerates much more over Antarctica and the Third Pole, but becomes weaker over Arctic. This demonstrates that future warming rate might make a large difference among Earth's three poles under different scenarios.

Assessment of snout analysis of Himalayan glaciers: impact studies on Pindari, Kafni, Sundardhunga, and Baljuri base camp glaciers.

There are several causes for the increasing rate of deglaciation, such as global warming, increase in the concentration of black carbon, and extensive use of fossil fuels which causes the change in the overall climate system and shifting glacier ecosystem. This study was conducted on Pindari valley glaciers part of lesser Himalaya in Uttarakhand. This study investigates to (1) monitor and map change in the frontal length or the snout region of a glacier that can be studied with the help of remote sensing techniques and (2) evaluate the decadal and annual retreat rate of the glacier from 1972 to 2018. The study applies both the maximum likelihood classifier and NDSI spectral indices based classification for extracting the glacier region for different periods. This study reveals a significant amount of retreats taking place in the selected glaciers, Pindari, Sundardhunga, Kafni, and Baljuri base camp glaciers, from 1972 to 2018 as 1719.95 m, 1751.21 m, 1057.01 m, and 810.78 m, respectively. The highest amount of change is noticed in Pindari and Sundardhunga glaciers, higher than ~ 1700 m. The study analyses temporal variation of the annual and decadal retreat rate in the Pindari valley glaciers, which would be helpful for the further study of the other glaciers.

Application of "OTSU"-an image segmentation method for differentiation of snow and ice regions of glaciers and assessment of mass budget in Chandra basin, Western Himalaya using Remote Sensing and GIS techniques.

In this study, an image segmentation algorithm ("OTSU") is applied for differentiation of snow/ice regions followed by interpretation of snowlines and estimation of mass budget of glaciers in Chandra basin, Western Himalaya, India between 2014 and 2020. The observations strongly suggest that the OTSU method can be used to differentiate the snow and ice regions on a glacier accurately from any satellite image, irrespective of the sensor characteristics. Also, this method suits well to delineate the snowlines for large sample of glaciers, other than the manual interpretation and semi-automated methods. The estimates of mass budget of the glaciers are observed varying from - 1.20 ± 0.51 m w.e to almost 0.64 ± 0.51 m w.e, with a total loss of - 61.91 ± 6.70 m w.e of ice mass at basin scale during the observation period. Based on this study, it is highly recommended the application of OTSU method for the differentiation of snow/ice zones of glaciers and snowline demarcation at a large spatial scale in the harsh weather rugged terrain of the Western Himalaya.

Quantitative assessment of two oil-in-ice surface drift algorithms.

The ongoing reduction in extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic might result in an increase of oil spill risk due to the expansion of shipping activity and oil exploration shift towards higher latitudes. This work assessed the response of two oil-in-ice surface drift models implemented in an open-source Lagrangian framework. By considering two numerical modeling experiments, our main finding indicates that the drift models provide fairly similar outputs when forced by the same input. It was also found that using higher resolution ice-ocean model does not imply better results. We highlight the role of sea ice in the spread, direction and distance traveled by the oil. The skill metric seems to be sensitive to the drift location, and drift model re-initialization is required to avoid forecast deterioration and ensure the accurate tracking of oil slicks in real operations.

A stochastic approach for the assessment of suspended sediment concentration at the Upper Rhone River basin, Switzerland.

This study addresses the link between suspended sediment concentration, precipitation, streamflow, and direct runoff components. This is important since suspended sediment concentration in the streamflow has invaluable importance in the management of the river basin. For this, the daily streamflow time series in five consecutive stations at Upper Rhone River Basin, a relatively large basin in the Alpine region of Switzerland, daily precipitation at one station, and the twice a week suspended sediment concentration records at the most downstream station between January 1981 and October 2020 are used. Initially, the base flow and the direct runoff associated with streamflow time series are obtained using the sliding interval method. Elasticity analyses between streamflow and suspended sediment concentration together with correlation, autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation, stationarity, and homogeneity are examined by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Pettitt's tests, respectively. Then, various stochastic scenarios are generated using the autoregressive moving average exogenous method (ARMAX). It is concluded that the precipitation and direct runoff have fewer effects on the suspended sediment concentration at downstream of the river. Hence, the cumulative effect of the glacier or snowmelt and channel erosion may exceed the effect of rain blown washouts on the suspended sediment concentration at the Port du Scex station. It is found that the ARMAX model results are satisfactory and can be suggested for further application.

Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: polar bears in the Chukchi Sea.

Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7-3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.

Revisiting the 24 year (1994-2018) record of glacier mass budget in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya: Overall response and controlling factors.

Glacier mass balance time-series measurements have immense importance in comprehending the overall regional hydrology and meteorology of the mountain systems. Such assessments are critical in the Indus River basin (compared to the Ganga and Brahmaputra), which besides having a significant contribution from the glaciers, also exhibits considerable heterogeneity in glacier response. Thus, to quantify this variability in glacier behavior and thereby develop a comprehensive understanding of the past as well as the future evolution of the glaciers, we reconstruct the annual surface mass balance records of 75 glaciers (size >1 km2) in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya for the period 1994-2018. We apply a remote sensing-based equilibrium line altitude-mass balance approach, supported by geodetic mass balance estimates (for 18 major glaciers) and limited field measurements. Our findings suggest a persistent negative mass balance of the glaciers (average: -0.69 ± 0.28 m w.e.a-1, cumulative: -16.56 m w.e), varying from -0.46 ± 0.27 (1997) to -0.79 ± 0.28 (2018) m w.e.a-1 during the study period. This overall mass loss coincides with an increased temperature (Tavg increased 0.5 °C; Tmin increased 0.27 °C; Tmax increased 0.06 °C) and reduced precipitation (by 4%) in the valley during 1994-2018, which shows the sensitivity of these glaciers to climate change. Within the Suru sub-basin, smaller, cleaner and high-altitude mountain glaciers of the Ladakh range have experienced greater mass loss (cumulative: -20.88 m w.e) compared to the Greater Himalayan range (cumulative: -13.44 m w.e). We observe latitudinal variability in mass loss in the Western Himalaya, with the highest mass loss rates in the Greater Himalayan Range (>-0.9 m w.e.a-1) and lowest in the Karakoram Range (<-0.1 m w.e.a-1), suggesting a transitional response of the Suru sub-basin glaciers (-0.69 m w.e.a-1). The overall regional picture suggests synchronicity in the mass loss pattern of western Himalayan glaciers, predominantly controlled by the climatic conditions. Meanwhile, the variability in their mass loss rates is attributed to the unique glacier characteristics.

Assessment of liquid and solid water storage in rock glaciers versus glacier ice in the Austrian Alps.

Rock glaciers are capable of storing water in solid (permafrost ice) as well as in liquid form (groundwater within the unfrozen base layer). The latter is relevant no matter the actual state of the rock glacier (intact, containing ice versus relict, no more ice present). A nation-wide comparison of the water equivalent of glacier ice within the Austrian Alps is conducted to evaluate the role of rock glaciers in the hydrological cycle at its current state and potentially in the future. Estimates of ice volumes and their uncertainties, especially related to thickness estimates of permafrost-ice bodies, are discussed in the light of available data and need to be seen as order-of-magnitude estimates. With intact rock glaciers covering almost 123 km2 and an assumed ice content of 40% within the permafrost body, ice volumes are estimated to be 0.93 Gigatons. This corresponds to 8.3% of the ice volume estimated for the most recent glacier inventory of the Austrian Alps. Thus, with the currently available data, a water equivalent ratio of ~1: 12 for rock glacier ice versus glacier ice is estimated. In addition to the solid water storage, the dynamic storage potential within rock glaciers in liquid form needs to be considered. While this volume is relatively small compared to the ice volume in glaciers and rock glaciers (ratio of ~1: 20), the time-scales of hydrological relevance (when they become runoff due to ice melt) are very different. This dynamic liquid water storage is replenishable and therefore available over shorter time scales (seasonal drainage pattern), and moreover relatively stable and may potentially even slightly increase as pore space becomes available due to increased melting of permafrost ice. In the light of climate warming and projected glacier recession, the relative hydrological importance of rock glaciers as water stores (in solid as well as in liquid form) in the European Alps is expected to increase and their storage-discharge patterns need to be accounted for in water management considerations.

Importance of seasonal sea ice in the western Arctic ocean to the Arctic and global microplastic budgets.

Arctic sea ice entraps microplastics (MP) from seawater and atmosphere and is recognized as sink and transport vector of MPs. However, ice-trapped fraction in the global MP budget, contribution of atmospheric input, and linkage among Arctic basins remain unclear. To assess them, we investigated the number- and mass-based data separated by size and shape geometry for MPs in sea ice, snow, and melt pond water from the western Arctic Ocean (WAO). A significant dependency of MP data on measured cutoff size and geometry was found. For the same size range and geometry, sea ice MPs in WAO ((11.4 ± 9.12) × 103 N m-3 for ≥ 100 µm) were within comparable levels with those in other Arctic basins, but showed closer similarity in polymer and shape compositions between WAO and Arctic Central Basin, indicating the strong linkage of the two basins by the Transpolar Drift. Our budgeting shows that a significant amount of plastic particles ((3.4 ± 2.6) × 1016 N; 280 ± 701 kilotons), which are missed from the global inventory, is trapped in WAO seasonal sea ice, with < 1% snowfall contribution. Our findings highlight that WAO ice zone may play a role as a sink of global MPs as well as a source of Arctic MPs.

Assessment of glacier status and its controlling parameters from 1990 to 2018 of Hunza Basin, Western Karakorum.

Ice masses and snow of Hunza River Basin (HRB) are an important primary source of fresh water and lifeline for downstream inhabitants. Changing climatic conditions seriously put an impact on these available ice and snow masses. These glaciers may affect downstream population by glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) and surge events due to climatic variation. So, monitoring of these glaciers and available ice masses is important. This research delivers an approach for dynamics of major glaciers of the Hunza River Basin. We delineated 27 major glaciers of HRB and examined their status by using Landsat (OLI, ETM+, ETM, TM), digital elevation model (DEM) over the period of 1990-2018. In 1990, the total area covered by these glaciers is about 2589.75 ± 86 km2 and about 2565.12 ± 68km2 in 2018. Our results revealed that from 2009 to 2015, glacier coverage of HRB advanced with a mean annual advance rate of 2.22 ± 0.1 km2 a-1. Conversely, from 1994 to 1999, the strongest reduction in glacier area with a mean rate of - 3.126 ± 0.3 km2 a-1 is recorded. The glaciers of HRB are relatively stable compared to Hindukush, Himalayan, and Tibetan Plateau region of the world. The steep slope glacier's retreat rate is more than that of gentle slope glaciers, and the glaciers below an elevation of 5000 m above sea level change significantly. Based on climate data from 1995 to 2018, HRB shows a decreasing trend in temperature and increasing precipitation. The glacier area's overall retreat is due to an increase in summer temperature while the glacier advancement is induced possibly by winter and autumn precipitation.

Expansion and hazard risk assessment of glacial lake Jialong Co in the central Himalayas by using an unmanned surface vessel and remote sensing.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe hazard in the Himalayas. Glacial lake expansion and the corresponding volume increase play major roles in GLOFs as well as climate change. Furthermore, mass movement and dam conditions play a major role in the GLOF initiation process. Recently, because of global warming, glacial lakes in the central Himalayas have been expanding rapidly. Owing to a lack of systematic assessment and meticulous field surveys, people living downstream are at great risk of GLOFs. Comprehensive investigations and assessment of the relationships among lake expansion, lake dam conditions, and GLOF risk are urgently needed. In this study, we surveyed Jialong Co, a typical end-moraine dammed lake in Poiqu River in the central Himalayas by using Landsat and Sentinel satellite images from the past 32 years, field work, and depth measurements using an unmanned surface vessel on August 28, 2020. The results showed that Jialong Co had experienced slow-quick-slow expansion, increasing in area from 0.13 ± 0.03 to 0.60 ± 0.02 km2. The lake bathymetric map revealed that the lake volume was (3.75 ± 0.38) × 107 m3 in 2020. Lake expansion occurred in the area from which the mother glacier retreated, indicating a close connection between the lake and its mother glacier and revealing that topography controlled the lake expansion process. Furthermore, thorough field work revealed that outlet dynamics and external water erosion are vulnerable elements in the disaster chain that initiate and affect the GLOF hazard of Jialong Co. Overall, this case study could help scholars understand the expansion mechanism of end-moraine dammed lakes and aid in hazard assessment of glacial lakes in the central Himalayas.

Assessment of current natural and anthropogenic radionuclide activity concentrations in the bottom sediments from the Barents Sea.

The article is devoted to the study of the activity values of natural radionuclides 40K, 232Th and 226Ra and technogenic radionuclide 137Cs in the bottom sediments of the Barents Sea, which is distinguished from the rest of the Arctic seas by the fact that the largest number of radiation objects are concentrated here. The activity levels of natural radionuclides were within the range of activity values corresponding to marine sediments around the world. The highest radionuclide activities were found within the deepwater shelf of the Barents Sea. The current level of activity of the technogenic radionuclide 137Cs is low and does not exceed 6.5 Bq·kg-1. However, due to global climatic changes, the secondary source of radiation pollution of the sea may be the Novaya Zemlya ice sheet, in which huge quantities of technogenic radionuclides were deposited during atmospheric tests of the 1950s and 1960s.

Remote assessment of the fate of phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean sea-ice zone.

In the Southern Ocean, large-scale phytoplankton blooms occur in open water and the sea-ice zone (SIZ). These blooms have a range of fates including physical advection, downward carbon export, or grazing. Here, we determine the magnitude, timing and spatial trends of the biogeochemical (export) and ecological (foodwebs) fates of phytoplankton, based on seven BGC-Argo floats spanning three years across the SIZ. We calculate loss terms using the production of chlorophyll-based on nitrate depletion-compared with measured chlorophyll. Export losses are estimated using conspicuous chlorophyll pulses at depth. By subtracting export losses, we calculate grazing-mediated losses. Herbivory accounts for ~90% of the annually-averaged losses (169 mg C m-2 d-1), and phytodetritus POC export comprises ~10%. Furthermore, export and grazing losses each exhibit distinctive seasonality captured by all floats spanning 60°S to 69°S. These similar trends reveal widespread patterns in phytoplankton fate throughout the Southern Ocean SIZ.