Polygenic risk-stratified screening for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in high-risk endemic areas of China: a cost-effectiveness study.

Background: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has an extremely high incidence rate in Southern China, resulting in a severe disease burden for the local population. Current EBV serologic screening is limited by false positives, and there is opportunity to integrate polygenic risk scores for personalized screening which may enhance cost-effectiveness and resource utilization. Methods: A Markov model was developed based on epidemiological and genetic data specific to endemic areas of China, and further compared polygenic risk-stratified screening [subjects with a 10-year absolute risk (AR) greater than a threshold risk underwent EBV serological screening] to age-based screening (EBV serological screening for all subjects). For each initial screening age (30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, and 65-69 years), a modeled cohort of 100,000 participants was screened until age 69, and then followed until age 79. Results: Among subjects aged 30 to 54 years, polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were more cost-effective than age-based screening strategies, and almost comprised the cost-effectiveness efficiency frontier. For men, screening strategies with a 1-year frequency and a 10-year absolute risk (AR) threshold of 0.7% or higher were cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below the willingness to pay (¥203,810, twice the local per capita GDP). Specifically, the strategies with a 10-year AR threshold of 0.7% or 0.8% are the most cost-effective strategies, with an ICER ranging from ¥159,752 to ¥201,738 compared to lower-cost non-dominated strategies on the cost-effectiveness frontiers. The optimal strategies have a higher probability (29.4-35.8%) of being cost-effective compared to other strategies on the frontier. Additionally, they reduce the need for nasopharyngoscopies by 5.1-27.7% compared to optimal age-based strategies. Likewise, for women aged 30-54 years, the optimal strategy with a 0.3% threshold showed similar results. Among subjects aged 55 to 69 years, age-based screening strategies were more cost-effective for men, while no screening may be preferred for women. Conclusion: Our economic evaluation found that the polygenic risk-stratified screening could improve the cost-effectiveness among individuals aged 30-54, providing valuable guidance for NPC prevention and control policies in endemic areas of China.

Host genetic variants, Epstein-Barr virus subtypes, and the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Assessment of interaction and mediation.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms are well-known risk factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the combined effects between HLA and EBV on the risk of NPC are unknown. We applied a causal inference framework to disentangle interaction and mediation effects between two host HLA SNPs, rs2860580 and rs2894207, and EBV variant 163364 with a population-based case-control study in NPC-endemic southern China. We discovered the strong interaction effects between the high-risk EBV subtype and both HLA SNPs on NPC risk (rs2860580, relative excess risk due to interaction [RERI] = 4.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.03-6.14; rs2894207, RERI = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.59-5.15), accounting for the majority of genetic risk effects. These results indicate that HLA genes and the high-risk EBV have joint effects on NPC risk. Prevention strategies targeting the high-risk EBV subtype would largely reduce NPC risk associated with EBV and host genetic susceptibility.

Liquid biopsy posttreatment surveillance in endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a cost-effective strategy to integrate circulating cell-free Epstein-Barr virus DNA.

BACKGROUND: The optimal posttreatment surveillance strategy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unclear. Circulating cell-free Epstein-Barr virus (cfEBV) DNA has been recognized as a promising biomarker to facilitate early detection of NPC recurrence. Therefore, we aim to determine whether integrating circulating cfEBV DNA into NPC follow-up is cost-effective. METHODS: For each stage of asymptomatic nonmetastatic NPC patients after complete remission to primary NPC treatment, we developed a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of the following surveillance strategies: routine follow-up strategy, i.e., (1) routine clinical physical examination; routine imaging strategies, including (2) routine magnetic resonance imaging plus computed tomography plus bone scintigraphy (MRI + CT + BS); and (3) routine 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT); cfEBV DNA-guided imaging strategies, including (4) cfEBV DNA-guided MRI + CT + BS and (5) cfEBV DNA-guided PET/CT. Clinical probabilities, utilities, and costs were derived from published studies or databases. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: For all disease stages, cfEBV DNA-guided imaging strategies demonstrated similar survival benefits but were considerably more economical than routine imaging strategies. They only required approximately one quarter of the number of imaging studies compared with routine imaging strategies to detect one recurrence. Specifically, cfEBV DNA-guided MRI + CT + BS was most cost-effective for stage II (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $57,308/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]) and stage III ($46,860/QALY) patients, while cfEBV DNA-guided PET/CT was most cost-effective for stage IV patients ($62,269/QALY). However, routine follow-up was adequate for stage I patients due to their low recurrence risk. CONCLUSIONS: The cfEBV DNA-guided imaging strategies are effective and cost-effective follow-up methods in NPC. These liquid biopsy-based strategies offer evidence-based, stage-specific surveillance modalities for clinicians and reduce disease burden for patients.