Quantifying cost of disease in livestock: a new metric for the Global Burden of Animal Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Increasing awareness of the environmental and public health impacts of expanding and intensifying animal-based food and farming systems creates discord, with the reliance of much of the world's population on animals for livelihoods and essential nutrition. Increasing the efficiency of food production through improved animal health has been identified as a step towards minimising these negative effects without compromising global food security. The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) programme aims to provide data and analytical methods to support positive change in animal health across all livestock and aquaculture animal populations. METHODS: In this study, we present a metric that begins the process of disease burden estimation by converting the physical consequences of disease on animal performance to farm-level costs of disease, and calculates a metric termed the Animal Health Loss Envelope (AHLE) via comparison between the status quo and a disease-free ideal. An example calculation of the AHLE metric for meat production from broiler chickens is provided. FINDINGS: The AHLE presents the direct financial costs of disease at farm-level for all causes by estimating losses and expenditure in a given farming system. The general specification of the model measures productivity change at farm-level and provides an upper bound on productivity change in the absence of disease. On its own, it gives an indication of the scale of total disease cost at farm-level. INTERPRETATION: The AHLE is an essential stepping stone within the GBADs programme because it connects the physical performance of animals in farming systems under different environmental and management conditions and different health states to farm economics. Moving forward, AHLE results will be an important step in calculating the wider monetary consequences of changes in animal health as part of the GBADs programme. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

Decomposing difference in the kidney cancer burden measures between 1990 and 2019 based on the global burden of disease study.

The kidney cancer (KC) burden measures have changed dramatically in recent years due to changes in exposure to the determinants over time. We aimed to decompose the difference in the KC burden measures between 1990 and 2019. This ecological study included data on the KC burden measures as well as socio-demographic index (SDI), behavioral, dietary, and metabolic risk factors from the global burden of disease study. Non-linear multivariate decomposition analysis was applied to decompose the difference in the burden of KC. Globally, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of KC increased from 2.88 to 4.37, from 1.70 to 2.16, and from 46.13 to 54.96 per 100,000 people between 1990 and 2019, respectively. The global burden of KC was more concentrated in developed countries. From 1990 to 2019, the burden of KC has increased the most in Eastern European countries. More than 70% of the difference in the KC burden measures between 1990 and 2019 was due to changes in exposure to the risk factors over time. The SDI, high body mass index (BMI), and alcohol use had the greatest contribution to the difference in the KC burden measures. Changes in characteristics over time, including SDI, high BMI, and alcohol consumption, appear to be important in the evolving landscape of KC worldwide. This finding may help policymakers design policies and implement prevention programs to control and manage KC.

Epidemiological patterns of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes from 1990-2019.

Background: This study investigates the burden of chronic kidney disease attributed to type 2 diabetes (CKD-T2D) across different geographical locations and time periods from 1990 to 2019. A total of 204 countries and regions are included in the analysis, with consideration given to their socio-demographic indexes (SDI). The aim is to examine both spatial and temporal variations in CKD-T2D burden. Methods: This research utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study to evaluate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) associated with CKD-T2D. Results: Since 1990, there has been a noticeable increase of CKD age-standardized rates due to T2D, with an EAPCs of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63 to 0.66) for ASIR and an EAPC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.8 to 1.05) for age-standardized DALYs rate. Among these regions, Andean Latin America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D incidence [EAPC: 2.23 (95% CI: 2.11 to 2.34) and North America showed a significant increase in CKD-T2D DALYs [EAPC: 2.73 (95% CI: 2.39 to 3.07)]. The burden was higher in male and increased across all age groups, peaking at 60-79 years. Furthermore, there was a clear correlation between SDI and age-standardized rates, with regions categorized as middle SDI and High SDI experiencing a significant rise in burden. Conclusion: The global burden of CKD-T2D has significantly risen since 1990, especially among males aged 60-79 years and in regions with middle SDI. It is imperative to implement strategic interventions to effectively address this escalating health challenge.

Global Burden of Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias Attributed to High Fasting Plasma Glucose from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias have grown rapidly over the decades, and high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) was one of the well-established risk factors. It is urgently needed to estimate the global burden of AD and other dementias attributable to high fasting plasma glucose between regions, countries, age groups, and sexes to inform development of effective primary disease prevention strategies and intervention policies. METHODS: The burden of AD and other dementias attributable to HFPG was estimated based on a modeling strategy using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 dataset. The disease burden and time trend globally and by region, country, development level, age group, and sex were evaluated. RESULTS: The number of AD and other dementias-related deaths attributable to HFPG increased from 42,998.23 (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 4459.86-163,455.78, the year of 1990) to 159,244.53 deaths (95% UI 18,385.23-583,514.15, the year of 2019). The age-standardized death rate increased from 1.69 (95% UI 0.18-6.54) in 1990 to 2.24 (95% UI 0.26-8.24) in 2019. The burden was higher in more developed regions. The burden in women was double that in men, that HFPG-attributable AD and other dementias caused 99,812.79 deaths (95% UI 9005.67-387,160.60) in women and 59,431.74 deaths (95% UI 5439.02-214,819.23) in men, with age-standardized death rate of 2.27 (95% UI 0.20-8.79) per 100,000 population in women and 2.20 (95% UI 0.20-8.00) in men. CONCLUSION: Findings from the current study emphasizes the urgent requirement for targeted interventions in high-development regions, as well as the importance of proactive measures in middle-development countries in protection of AD and other dementias. The gender disparity necessitates the integration of gender-specific considerations in targeted approaches in prevention of AD and other dementias.

Global burden of liver cirrhosis 1990-2019 and 20 years forecast: results from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis is a disease that imposes a heavy burden worldwide, but its incidence varies widely by region. Therefore, we analysed data on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990-2019 and projected the disease development from 2019-2039. METHODS: Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the public Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rate (ASR) of cirrhosis in different regions were calculated. The estimates of risk factor exposure were summarized, and the proportion of causes and risk factors of liver cirrhosis and their relationship with the human development index (HDI) and socio-demographic index (SDI) were analysed. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in 2019-2039 were predicted using Nordpred and BAPC models. RESULTS: Globally, the ASR of cirrhosis incidence decreased by 0.05% per year from 25.7/100,000 in 1990 to 25.3/100,000 in 2019. The mortality risk associated with cirrhosis is notably lower in females than in males (13 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000). The leading cause of cirrhosis shifted from hepatitis B to C. Globally, alcohol use increased by 14%. In line, alcohol use contributed to 49.3% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 48.4% of global deaths from liver cirrhosis. Countries with a low ASR in 1990 experienced a faster increase in cirrhosis, whereas in 2019, the opposite was observed. In countries with high SDI, the ASR of cirrhosis is generally lower. Finally, projections indicate that the number and incidence of cirrhosis will persistently rise from 2019-2039. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis poses an increasing health burden. Given the changing etiology, there is an imperative to strengthen the prevention of hepatitis C and alcohol consumption, to achieve early reduce the incidence of cirrhosis.

This study is an updated assessment of liver cirrhosis prevalence trends in 204 countries worldwide and the first to project trends over the next 20 years.The disease burden of cirrhosis is still increasing, and despite the decline in ASR, the number and prevalence of cirrhosis will continue to increase over the next two decades after 2019.It is alarming that the global surge in alcohol use is accompanied by an increase in DALYs and deaths due to liver cirrhosis.Liver cirrhosis remains a noteworthy public health event, and our study can further guide the development of national healthcare policies and the implementation of related interventions.

Global burden and economic impact of vaccine-preventable cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Infections are responsible for approximately 13% of cancer cases worldwide and many of these infections can be prevented by vaccination. Human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) are among the most common infections that cause cancer deaths globally, despite effective prophylactic vaccines being available. This analysis aims to estimate the global burden and economic impact of vaccine-preventable cancer mortality across World Health Organization (WHO) regions. METHODS: The number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) due to five different vaccine-preventable cancer forms (oral cavity, liver, laryngeal, cervical, and oropharyngeal cancer) in each of the WHO regions (African, Eastern Mediterranean, European, the Americas, South-East Asia Pacific, and Western Pacific) were obtained from the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation global burden of disease dataset. Vaccine-preventable mortality was estimated considering the fraction attributable to infection, to estimate the number of deaths and YLL potentially preventable through vaccination. Data from the World Bank on GDP per capita were used to estimate the value of YLL (VYLL). The robustness of these results was explored with sensitivity analysis. Given that several Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) vaccines are in development, but not yet available, the impact of a potential vaccine for EBV was evaluated in a scenario analysis. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 465,740 potentially vaccine-preventable cancer deaths and 14,171,397 YLL across all WHO regions. The estimated economic impact due to this mortality was $106.3 billion globally. The sensitivity analysis calculated a range of 403,025-582,773 deaths and a range in productivity cost of $78.8-129.0 billion. In the scenario analysis EBV-related cancer mortality increased the global burden by 159,723 deaths and $32.4 billion. CONCLUSION: Overall, the findings from this analysis illustrate the high economic impact of premature cancer mortality that could be potentially preventable by vaccination which may assist decision-makers in allocating limited resources among competing priorities. Improved implementation and increased vaccination coverage of HPV and HBV should be prioritized to decrease this burden.

Disability and costs of IHD attributable to the consumption of trans-fatty acids in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the disability and costs of the Brazilian Unified Health System for IHD attributable to trans-fatty acid (TFA) consumption in 2019. DESIGN: This ecological study used secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to estimate the years lived with disability from IHD attributable to TFA in Brazil in 2019. Data on direct costs (purchasing power parity: 1 Int$ = R$ 2·280) were obtained from the Hospital and Ambulatory Information Systems of the Brazilian Unified Health System. Moreover, the total costs in each state were divided by the resident population in 2019 and multiplied by 10 000 inhabitants. The relationship between the socio-demographic index, disease and economic burden was investigated. SETTING: Brazil and its twenty-seven states. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥ 25 years of both sexes. RESULTS: IHD attributable to TFA consumption resulted in 11 165 years lived with disability (95 % uncertainty interval 932­18 462) in 2019 in Brazil. A total of Int$ 54 546 227 (95 % uncertainty interval 4 505 792­85 561 810) was spent in the Brazilian Unified Health System in 2019 due to IHD attributable to TFA, with the highest costs of hospitalisations, for males and individuals aged ≥ 50 years or over. The highest costs were observed in Sergipe (Int$ 6508/10 000; 95 % uncertainty interval 576­10 265), followed by the two states from the South. Overall, as the socio-demographic index increases, expenditures increase. CONCLUSIONS: TFA consumption results in a high disease and economic IHD burden in Brazil, reinforcing the need for more effective health policies, such as industrial TFA elimination, following the international agenda.

Differences across the lifespan between females and males in the top 20 causes of disease burden globally: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Sex and gender shape health. There is a growing body of evidence focused on comprehensively and systematically examining the magnitude, persistence, and nature of differences in health between females and males. Here, we aimed to quantify differences in the leading causes of disease burden between females and males across ages and geographies. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to compare disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for females and males for the 20 leading causes of disease burden for individuals older than 10 years at the global level and across seven world regions, between 1990 and 2021. We present absolute and relative differences in the cause-specific DALY rates between females and males. FINDINGS: Globally, females had a higher burden of morbidity-driven conditions with the largest differences in DALYs for low back pain (with 478·5 [95% uncertainty interval 346·3-632·8] more DALYs per 100 000 individuals among females than males), depressive disorders (348·3 [241·3-471·0]), and headache disorders (332·9 [48·3-731·9]), whereas males had higher DALY rates for mortality-driven conditions with the largest differences in DALYs for COVID-19 (with 1767·8 [1581·1-1943·5] more DALYs per 100 000 among males than females), road injuries (1012·2 [934·1-1092·9]), and ischaemic heart disease (1611·8 [1405·0-1856·3]). The differences between sexes became larger over age and remained consistent over time for all conditions except HIV/AIDS. The largest difference in HIV/AIDS was observed among those aged 25-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa with 1724·8 (918·8-2613·7) more DALYs per 100 000 among females than males. INTERPRETATION: The notable health differences between females and males point to an urgent need for policies to be based on sex-specific and age-specific data. It is also important to continue promoting gender-sensitive research, and ultimately, implement interventions that not only reduce the burden of disease but also achieve greater health equity. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Infective Endocarditis in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990‒2019: Updates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Infective endocarditis (IE), a severe and economically impactful condition, lacks substantial epidemiological data in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. This study focused on analyzing the trends and burden of IE in NAME from 1990 to 2019, taking into account factors like age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI). METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease data from 1990 to 2019 was retrieved from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) website. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized rates (ASR) for IE incidence increased by 59%, and prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) rose by 12% and 9%, respectively, while the ASRs for deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLLs) saw reductions of 22%, 34%, and 34% in the NAME region. Death rates among children under five declined by 72%. Gender and the SDI did not significantly influence these changes. Saudi Arabia witnessed the most significant increase in ASR of IE incidence since 1990, while Turkey had the highest rates in 2019. The year 2019 also saw the highest death rate among those aged 70 and over, with over 91000 DALYs from IE. DALYs decreased by 71.5% for children under five from 1990 to 2019 but remained stable for individuals in their seventies. Jordan showed the most notable decrease in ASRs for deaths, DALYs, and YLLs among children under five. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the changing epidemiology of IE in the NAME region, recommending the establishment of multidisciplinary IE registries, antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines for healthcare-associated IE, and strategies to control antimicrobial resistance as key mitigation measures.

Global burden and prediction study of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with China.

Background: China has the highest number of new cancer cases and deaths globally. Due to particularly low scores in health care quality for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), the country's cSCC burden requires greater awareness. Consequently, we aimed to evaluate and predict the trend of the cSCC burden globally and in China from 1990 to 2030. Methods: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, which provided estimates of the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of cSCC from 1990 to 2019. We set up joint-point analyses and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict the disease burden of cSCC up to 2030. Results: In 2019, China reported age-standardised rates of cSCC prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of 2.54, 2.12, 0.88, and 16.76 per 100 000 population, respectively. The country's prevalence and incidence rates from 1990 to 2019 were lower than the global levels, but its mortality and DALY rates were higher. The age-standardised rates were higher for males, and the disease burden increased with each age group globally and in China. Moreover, the average annual percentage change showed all indicators were growing faster than the global levels. According to the BAPC model, there will be an upward trend in the prevalence and incidence globally and in China between 2020 and 2030, with a decrease in mortality and DALYs. Conclusions: We observed an upward trend in the cSCC burden over the past 30 years in China. Prevalence and incidence are expected to continue at a higher rate than the global average in the next decade, while mortality and DALYs are predicted to decrease. As the Chinese population ages, efforts toward managing and preventing cSCC should be targeted towards the elderly population.

Prevalence trends of anemia impairment in adolescents and young adults with HIV/AIDS.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is a common complication of HIV/AIDS, particularly in adolescents and young adults across various countries and regions. However, little is known about the changing prevalence trends of anemia impairment in this population over time. METHODS: Data on anemia in adolescents and young adults with HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease. Prevalence was calculated by gender, region, and country for individuals aged 10-24, and trends were measured using estimating annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: Globally, the prevalence of adolescents and young adults with HIV/AIDS increased from 103.95 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 203.78 in 2019. However, anemia impairment has decreased over the past three decades, with a global percentage decreasing from 70.6% in 1990 to 34.7% in 2019, mainly presenting as mild to moderate anemia and significantly higher in females than males. The largest decreases were observed in Central Sub-Saharan Africa, North America, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, with EAPCs of -2.8, -2.34, and -2.17, respectively. Tajikistan (78.76%) and Madagascar (74.65%) had the highest anemia impairment percentage in 2019, while China (16.61%) and Iceland (13.73%) had the lowest. Anemia impairment was closely related to sociodemographic index (SDI) levels, with a high proportion of impairment in low SDI regions but a stable decreasing trend (EAPC = -0.37). CONCLUSION: Continued anemia monitoring and management are crucial for patients with HIV, especially in high-prevalence regions and among females. Public health policies and interventions can improve the quality of life and reduce morbidity and mortality.

Cuantificación de la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica en América Latina: una epidemia invisibilizada / Quantification of the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin America: an invisible epidemic / Quantificação da carga da doença renal crônica na América Latina: uma epidemia invisível

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. 1) Describir la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica en países de América Latina entre 1990 y 2019 y, 2) Estimar la correlación entre los años de vida saludables perdidos (AVISA) con el índice sociodemográfico y el índice de acceso y calidad de salud. Métodos. Análisis secundario y ecológico, basado en el Estudio de la Carga Global de Enfermedades, Lesiones y Factores de Riesgo 2019. Se reportaron las tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad, años perdidos por muertes prematuras (APMP), años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD) y AVISA por enfermedad renal crónica para 1990, 2005 y 2019. La información se desagregó por países, sexo, grupos etarios y subcausas. Resultados. Entre 1990 y 2019, la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica aumentó considerablemente en los países de América Latina, convirtiéndose en una de las principales causas de mortalidad y de AVISA. La tasa estandarizada de AVISA por enfermedad renal crónica se debió, en gran medida, al peso de las muertes prematuras más que a la discapacidad. En 2019, Nicaragua, El Salvador, México y Guatemala se destacaron por tener las tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad por enfermedad renal crónica y de AVISA más elevadas, mientras que Uruguay presentó las más bajas. Conclusiones. La enfermedad renal crónica es una epidemia invisibilizada que representa una carga excesiva, en mortalidad y AVISA, para los países de América Latina. Es indispensable aunar esfuerzos regionales para enfrentar la enfermedad, además de impulsar acciones locales que atiendan las particularidades de cada país.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. 1) Describe the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin American countries between 1990 and 2019; and 2) Estimate the correlation between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the Sociodemogra- phic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Methods. Secondary and ecological analysis, based on the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. Standardized mortality rates, years of life lost to due to premature death (YLLs),years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLDs) and DALYs due to chronic kidney disease were reported for 1990, 2005, and 2019. Information was disaggregated by country, sex, age group, and sub-cause. Results. Between 1990 and 2019, the burden of chronic kidney disease increased considerably in Latin Ame- rican countries, becoming one of the main causes of mortality and DALYs. The standardized rate of DALYs for chronic kidney disease was largely due to the weight of premature deaths rather than disability. In 2019, Nica- ragua, El Salvador, Mexico, and Guatemala had the highest standardized mortality rates for chronic kidney disease and DALYs, while Uruguay had the lowest. Conclusions. Chronic kidney disease is an invisible epidemic that places an excessive burden in terms of mortality and DALYs on Latin American countries. It is essential to join forces to tackle the disease in the region, and promote local actions that address the particularities of each country.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. 1) Descrever a carga da doença renal crônica nos países da América Latina entre 1990 e 2019 e 2) estimar a correlação entre os anos de vida saudável perdidos (AVISA), o índice sociodemográfico e o índice de acesso e qualidade da saúde. Métodos. Análise secundária e ecológica, baseada no estudo Carga Global de Doenças, Lesões e Fatores de Risco 2019 (GBD). Foram informadas taxas de mortalidade padronizadas, anos de vida perdidos por morte prematura (AVP) por morte prematura, anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (AVAI) e AVISA devido a doença renal crônica de 1990, 2005 e 2019. Os dados foram desagregados por país, sexo, faixas etárias e causas subjacentes. Resultados. Entre 1990 e 2019, a carga de doença renal crônica aumentou consideravelmente nos países da América Latina, tornando-se uma das principais causas de mortalidade e de AVISA. A taxa padronizada de AVISA devido à doença renal crônica foi influenciada em grande parte pelo peso das mortes prematuras, e não da incapacidade. Em 2019, Nicarágua, El Salvador, México e Guatemala se destacaram por terem as maiores taxas padronizadas de mortalidade por doença renal crônica e AVISA, ao passo que Uruguai teve as menores taxas. Conclusões. A doença renal crônica é uma epidemia invisível, que representa uma carga excessiva em ter- mos de mortalidade e de AVISA para os países da América Latina. É essencial unir esforços na região para combater a doença, além de promover ações locais que atendam às particularidades de cada país.

Burden of Stroke Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories: A Population-Based Study, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature needs more attention with dramatic climate change. The aim of this study was to estimate the global burden and distribution characteristics of the burden. METHODS: In this ecological study, we collected data from the Climate Research Unit Gridded Time Series, the World Bank databases, and the Global Burden of Diseases study to estimate the distribution of burden. We used the joinpoint model, decomposition analysis, age-period-cohort model, panel data analysis, and health inequality analysis to assess the different types of stroke burden attributable to different climatic conditions. RESULTS: The burden of stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature continued to grow, and aging was a key factor in this increase. In 2019, 521,031 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 402,433-663,996) deaths and 9,423,649 (95% UI 7,207,660-12,055,172) disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] attributable to stroke due to nonoptimal temperature were recorded globally. Globally, men (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] 7.70, 95% UI 5.80-9.73; age-standardized DALY rate [ASDR] 139.69, 95% UI 102.96-178.54 in 2019) had a heavier burden than women (ASMR 5.89, 95% UI 4.50-7.60; ASDR 96.02, 95% UI 72.62-123.85 in 2019). Central Asia (ASMR 18.12, 95% UI 13.40-24.53; ASDR 327.35, 95% UI 240.24-440.61 in 2019) had the heaviest burden at the regional level. In the national level, North Macedonia (ASMR 32.97, 95% UI 20.57-47.44 in 2019) and Mongolia (ASDR 568.54, 95% UI 242.03-1,031.14 in 2019) had the highest ASMR/ASDR, respectively. Low temperature currently contributes to the main burden (deaths 474,002, 95% UI 355,077-606,537; DALYs 8,357,198, 95% UI 6,186,217-10,801,911 attributable to low temperature vs deaths 48,030, 95% UI 5,630-104,370; DALYs 1,089,329, 95% UI 112,690-2,375,345 attributable to high temperature in 2019). However, the burden due to high temperature has increased rapidly, especially among people aged older than 10 years, and was disproportionately concentrated in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as Africa. In addition, the rapid increase in the stroke burden due to high temperature in Central Asia also requires special attention. DISCUSSION: This is the first study to assess the global stroke burden attributed to nonoptimal temperature. The dramatic increase in the burden due to high temperature requires special attention, especially in low-SDI countries.

Unlocking the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.

Red meat consumption is associated with an elevated risk of mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In contrast, forage fish, as highly nutritious, environmentally friendly, affordable, and the most abundant fish species in the ocean, are receiving increasing interest from a global food system perspective. However, little research has examined the impact of replacing red meat with forage fish in the global diet on diet-related NCDs. METHODS: We based our study on datasets of red meat projections in 2050 for 137 countries and forage fish catches. We replaced the red meat consumption in each country with forage fish (from marine habitats), without exceeding the potential supply of forage fish. We used a comparative risk assessment framework to investigate how such substitutions could reduce the global burden of diet-related NCDs in adults. RESULTS: The results of our study show that forage fish may replace only a fraction (approximately 8%) of the world's red meat due to its limited supply, but it may increase global daily per capita fish consumption close to the recommended level. Such a substitution could avoid 0.5-0.75 million deaths and 8-15 million disability-adjusted life years, concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Forage fish as an alternative to red meat could double (or more) the number of deaths that could be avoided by simply reducing red meat consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that forage fish is a promising alternative to red meat. Policies targeting the allocation of forage fish to regions where they are needed, such as the Global South, could be more effective in maximising the potential of forage fish to reduce the global burden of disease.

Spatial-temporal trends in leprosy burden and its associations with socioeconomic and physical geographic factors: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of our study was to assess the multiscalar changes in leprosy burden and its associated risk factors over the last three decades. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted an in-depth examination of leprosy's spatial-temporal trends at multiple geographical scale (global, regional, and national), utilizing information from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). METHODS: Incidence and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leprosy were determined, with countries categorized based on leprosy incidence changes. We examined socioeconomic and physical geography influences on leprosy incidence via Spearman correlation analysis, using ternary phase diagrams to reveal the synergetic effects on leprosy occurrence. RESULTS: Globally, incident cases of leprosy decreased by 27.86% from 1990 to 2019, with a reduction in ASIR (EAPC = -2.53), yet trends were not homogeneous across regions. ASIR and EAPC correlated positively with sociodemographic index (SDI), and an ASIR growth appeared in high SDI region (EAPC = 3.07). Leprosy burden was chiefly distributed in Tropical Latin America, Oceania, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Negative correlations were detected between the incidence of leprosy and factors of SDI, GDP per capita, urban population to total population, and precipitation, whereas the number of refugee population, temperature, and elevation showed opposite positive results. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a global decline in leprosy over the past three decades, the disparities of disease occurrence at regional and national scales still persisted. Socioeconomic and physical geographic factors posed an obvious influence on the transmission risk of leprosy. The persistence and regional fluctuations of leprosy incidence necessitate the ongoing dynamic and multilayered control strategies worldwide in combating this ancient disease.

Global burden of rheumatoid arthritis among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years: A trend analysis study from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: In recent decades, there has been a global increase in the burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) among adolescents and young adults (AYAs), making it a significant public health issue. However, our understanding of the disease burden, harm, and influencing factors of RA in this population remains insufficient. This study aimed to assess the trends in RA burden among AYAs aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: Incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate per 100,000 population, as well as average annual percentage changes (AAPCs), of RA among individuals aged 10-24 years were reported globally, regionally, and nationally based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These global trends were further analyzed by age, sex, and Sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine the year in which the most significant changes in global trends occurred. RESULTS: Globally, the incidence of RA among AYAs increased from 4.98 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 5.41 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an AAPCs of 0.29 (95%CI: 0.26, 0.32, p < 0.001). The most significant increase occurred in 2000, while the most significant decrease occurred in 2014. The prevalence increased from 34.11 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 36.34 per 100,000 population in 2019, with an AAPCs of 0.22 (95%CI: 0.19, 0.24, p<0.001); The most significant increase was observed in 2000, and the most significant decrease occurred in 2014. DALYs rate with RA were 5.96 per 100,000 population in 1990 and 5.79 per 100,000 population in 2019 for AYAs, with an average decrease of 0.1 years per year (AAPCs = -0.1, 95%CI: -0.2, -0.01, p = 0.04). In terms of gender, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate were higher for females compared to males during the same period. Regarding age, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate increased with increasing age. Based on the SDI quintile, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate of RA were highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI from 1990 to 2019. However, the relationship between incidence and SDI is non-linear. In terms of regions, Tropical Latin America exhibited the highest incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate, while Andean Latin America experienced the most rapid increase in incidence and prevalence. Southern Latin America saw the fastest growth in DALYs rate, whereas Southern Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed the most significant decline. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the study revealed an overall increase in the incidence and prevalence of RA among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) over the past three decades, while DALYs rate remained relatively stable. Furthermore, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rate of RA were found to increase with age. Fortunately, recent proactive preventive measures and treatment methods have shown promising results. Moving forward, it is crucial to prioritize the female population and AYAs patients in order to further alleviate the global burden of RA.

Analysis and prediction of central nervous system tumor burden in China during 1990-2030.

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors, due to their unique locations, pose a serious threat to human health and present challenges to modern medicine. These tumors exhibit notable epidemiological characteristics across various ethnicities, regions, and age groups. This study investigated the trend of disease burden of CNS tumors in China from 1990-2019 and predicted the incidence and death rate from 2020-2030. Employing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we utilized key indicators to scrutinize the disease burden associated with CNS tumors in China. The analysis employed the Joinpoint model to track the trend in disease burden, calculating both the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, the Matlab software facilitated the creation of a gray model to forecast the incidence and death rate of CNS tumors in China spanning from 2020 to 2030." In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CNS tumors in China were among the high level in the world. The standardized prevalence rate and DALYs of CNS tumors in China residents showed a stable fluctuation trend with age; however, age-standardized death and incidence rate demonstrated a generally upward trend with age. In China, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of males were lower than those for female residents, while the age-standardized death rate and DALYs among males surpassed those of females. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of CNS tumors in China exhibited an increasing trend. The age-standardized death rate and DALYs showed a contrasting trend. According to the gray model's prediction, incidence rate of CNS tumors would continue rising while the death rate is expected to decline in China from 2020-2023. The burden of CNS tumors in China has shown an upward trajectory, posing significant challenges to their treatment. It is necessary to pay attention to tertiary prevention, start from the perspective of high-risk groups and high-risk factors to reduce the burden of disease, and achieve "early detection, early diagnosis, and early treatment".

Global, regional, and national burden of blindness and vision loss attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019, and forecasts to 2030: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AIMS: To systematically clarify the spatiotemporal trends, and age-sex-specific blindness and vision loss (BVL) burden due to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) from 1990 to 2019, and project this burden over the next decade. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We obtained the number and rate of years lived with disability (YLDs) for the BVL burden attributable to HFPG by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and location between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trends of HFPG-attributable BVL burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the HFPG-attributable BVL burden. RESULTS: In 2019, the global number and age-standardized rate (ASR) for YLDs of BVL attributable to HFPG were 673.13 (95% UI: 159.52 to 1565.34) thousand and 8.44 (95% UI: 2.00 to 19.63) per 100,000 people, respectively. The highest burdens were found in Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and the BVL burden due to HFPG was higher in the elderly and lower SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASR of HFPG-attributable BVL gradually increased with AAPC (95% CI) being 0.80 (0.74 to 0.86). In addition, the HFPG-attributable BVL burden will slightly increase in the future decade. CONCLUSIONS: The HFPG remains the important cause of BVL worldwide, placing a substantial disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized burden of BVL due to HFPG increased, and will consistently increase in the future decade, particularly in the elderly and in regions with middle SDI or below.

Burden of neck pain in general population of China, 1990-2019: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Neck pain has become very common in China and has greatly affected individuals, families, and society in general. In this study, we aimed to report on the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) caused by neck pain in the general population of China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) study to estimate the number and age standardised rates per 100 000 population of neck pain point prevalence, annual incidence, and YLDs in 33 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions of China, stratified by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. We then compared these estimates with other G20 countries. Results: There were 6.80 × 107 patients with neck pain in 2019, presenting an increase from 3.79 × 107 in 1990. Likewise, the national age-standardised point prevalence increased slightly from 3.53% in 1990 to 3.57% in 2019. The YLDs increased by 78.08%, from 3814 × 103 in 1990 to 6792 × 103 in 2019. The age-standardised YLDs rate increased 1.50% from 352.84 in 1990 to 358.10 in 2019. The point prevalence of neck pain in 2019 was higher in females compared with males. These estimates were all above the global average level and increased more rapidly among G20 countries from 1990 to 2019. We generally observed a positive association between age-standardised YLD rates for neck pain and SDI, suggesting the burden is higher at higher sociodemographic indices. Conclusions: Neck pain is a serious public health problem in the general population in China, especially in its central and western regions, with an overall increasing trend in the last three decades. This is possibly related to changes of people's lifestyles and work patterns due to improvements in societal well-being and technology. Raising awareness of risk factors for neck pain in the general population and establishing effective preventive and treatment strategies could help reduce the future burden of neck disorders.