Cumulative Ordinary Kriging interpolation model to forecast radioactive fallout, and its application to Chernobyl and Fukushima assessment: a new method and mini review.

The Cumulative Ordinary Kriging (COK) interpolation method has been proposed for the spatial prediction of atmospheric radioactive fallout in any given region. COK is built on the Ordinary Kriging and Cumulative Semivariogram methods and combines all their advantages to achieve statistically significant results. It is verified in this paper the reliability of the results from COK with other well-known Modified Shepard's Method (MSM), Inverse Distance Square (INDSQ), Polynomial Regression (PR), Natural Neighbour (NN), Radial Basis (RB), and Kriging Method interpolation methods. The model is tested in detail and in every possible way in two and three dimensions and applied to real-time Cs-134 and Cs-137 radioactive fallout data from the Chernobyl and Fukushima reactor accidents by combining both experimental and theoretical results. The results obtained from the applications for all interpolation methods are included in the supplementary materials section at the end of the article for the benefit of the readers. COK can also be used for spatial modelling of any particle at micro or macro scale. It can contribute significantly to environmental quality, ecological, and human health.

Assessment of residual radionuclide levels at the Bokak and Bikar Atolls in the northern Marshall Islands.

The Bikar and Bokak Atolls, located in the northern Marshall Islands, are extremely isolated and consist of pristine marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Both atolls may have experienced significant radioactive deposition following the nuclear weapon testing conducted at Bikini and Enewetak proving grounds. Here we report activity concentrations of artificial radionuclides (239Pu, 240Pu, 241Pu, 241Am, 137Cs and 90Sr) in marine and terrestrial samples collected from Bikar and Bokak Atolls. Artificial radionuclides in soil from the Majuro Atoll are also reported and form a radiological baseline against which the levels at the other atolls can be compared. We observed low levels of artificial radionuclides in soil from Majuro and Bokak, but significantly higher levels in soil from Bikar. The residual radioactivity in the Bikar environment is comparable to the levels previously reported for other nearby atolls, including Taka and Utrik, but lower than for Rongerik, Rongelap, Bikini and Enewetak. An analysis of 240Pu/239Pu isotope ratios and estimations of the dates of contamination from 241Am/241Pu activity ratios both indicated that the Bikar Atoll was contaminated mainly by radioactive fallout from the Castle Bravo test in 1954. We compare the results of our measurements at Bikar and Bokak to data from other atolls in the Marshall Islands and to regions of the world affected by both global and regional fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing and nuclear accidents.

Maximizing avertable doses with a minimum amount of waste for remediation of land areas around typical single family houses after radioactive fallout based on Monte Carlo simulations.

The uncontrolled release of long-lived radioactive substances from nuclear accidents can contaminate inhabited land areas. The removal of topsoil is an important method for reducing future radiation exposure but can also generate a large amount of waste that needs safe disposal. To the best of our knowledge, previous studies have determined the optimal depth of topsoil removal but not the size of the area designated for this measure. For this purpose, this study performed Monte Carlo simulations of hypothetical 137Cs surface contamination on various ground areas in a typical northern European suburban area. The goal was to study the size of the areas needed and amount of waste generated to achieve a certain relative and absolute dose reduction. The results showed that removing the topsoil from areas larger than 3000 m2 around the houses in the study neighbourhood results in only marginal reduction in radiation exposure. If, on average, 5 cm of topsoil is removed over 3000 m2, then 150 m3 of waste would be generated. However, in this scenario adjacent properties benefit from each other's decontamination, leading to a smaller amount of waste for a given reduction in future radiation exposure per inhabitant of these dwellings. Additionally, it was shown that topsoil removal over limited areas has a higher impact on the absolute dose reduction at an observation point inside or outside the houses with higher initial dose.

Preliminary Dose Assessment for Emergency Response Exercise Using Unsealed Radioactive Contamination.

A preliminary dose assessment for an emergency response exercise using unsealed radioactive sources was performed based on conservative calculation methods. The assessment was broken into four parts: activation, distribution, exercise participation, and post-exercise monitoring. The computer code MicroShield was used to determine external exposure from the source during and after distribution. Internal exposure via inhalation and ingestion was estimated by assuming fractional intakes of activity and converting to dose using annual limits on intake and dose coefficients. It was determined from the dose assessment that a radionuclide-dependent range of 37 MBq to 1.5 GBq can be used to achieve detectable dose rates during the exercise without exceeding assumed administrative dose limits. Of the identified radionuclides, Tc results in the lowest dose and is recommended from a radiological safety standpoint. However, the choice of which radionuclide and what activity to use for an exercise should be made based on budget and the logistics of the actual exercise.

History of Dose, Risk, and Compensation Assessments for US Veterans of the 1966 Plutonium Cleanup in Palomares, Spain.

In 1966, about 1,600 US military men-mostly Air Force-participated in a cleanup of plutonium dispersed from two nuclear bombs in Palomares, Spain. As a base for future analyses, we provide a history of the Palomares incident, including the dosimetry and risk analyses carried out to date and the compensation assessments made for veterans. By law, compensation for illnesses attributed to ionizing radiation is based on maximum estimated doses and standard risk coefficients, with considerable benefit of the doubt given to claimants when there is uncertainty. In the Palomares case, alpha activity in urine fell far faster than predicted by plutonium biokinetic excretion models used at the time. Most of the measurements were taken on-site but were disqualified on the grounds that they were "unreasonably high" and because there was a possibility of environmental contamination. Until the end of 2013, the Air Force used low dose estimates derived from environmental measurements carried out well after the cleanup. After these estimates were questioned by Congress, the Air Force adopted higher dose estimates based on plutonium concentration measurements in urine samples collected from 26 veterans after they left Palomares. The Air Force assumed that all other cleanup veterans received lower doses and therefore assigned to them maximum organ doses based on the individual among the 26 with the lowest urine measurements. These resulting maximum organ doses appear to be sufficient to justify compensation to all Palomares veterans with lung and bone cancer and early-onset liver cancer and leukemia but not other radiogenic cancers.

Reconstructing the deposition environment and long-term fate of Chernobyl 137Cs at the floodplain scale through mobile gamma spectrometry.

Cs-137 is considered to be the most significant anthropogenic contributor to human dose and presents a particularly difficult remediation challenge after a dispersal following nuclear incident. The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant meltdown in April 1986 represents the largest nuclear accident in history and released over 80 PBq of 137Cs into the environment. As a result, much of the land in close proximity to Chernobyl, which includes the Polessie State Radioecology Reserve in Belarus, remains highly contaminated with 137Cs to such an extent they remain uninhabitable. Whilst there is a broad scale understanding of the depositional patterns within and beyond the exclusion zone, detailed mapping of the distribution is often limited. New developments in mobile gamma spectrometry provide the opportunity to map the fallout of 137Cs and begin to reconstruct the depositional environment and the long-term behaviour of 137Cs in the environment. Here, full gamma spectrum analysis using algorithms based on the peak-valley ratio derived from Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the total 137Cs deposition and its depth distribution in the soil. The results revealed a pattern of 137Cs distribution consistent with the deposition occurring at a time of flooding, which is validated by review of satellite imagery acquired at similar times of the year. The results were also consistent with systematic burial of the fallout 137Cs by annual flooding events. These results were validated by sediment cores collected along a transect across the flood plain. The true merit of the approach was confirmed by exposing new insights into the spatial distribution and long term fate of 137Cs across the floodplain. Such systematic patterns of behaviour are likely to be fundamental to the understanding of the radioecological behaviour of 137Cs whilst also providing a tracer for quantifying the ecological controls on sediment movement and deposition at a landscape scale.

Development and assessment of a simple ecological model (TRIPS) for forests contaminated by radiocesium fallout.

The management of vast forested zones contaminated by radiocesium (rCs) following the Chernobyl and Fukushima fallout is of great social and economic concern in affected areas and requires appropriate dynamic models as predictive or questioning tools. Generally, the existing radio-ecological models need less fragmented data and more ecological realism in their quantitative description of the rCs cycling processes. The model TRIPS ("Transfer of Radionuclide In Perennial vegetation Systems") developed in this study privileged an integrated approach which makes the best use of mass balance studies and available explicit experimental data for Scots pine stands. A main challenge was the differentiation and calibration of foliar absorption as well as root uptake in order to well represent the rCs biocycling. The general dynamics of rCs partitioning was simulated with a relatively good precision against an independent series of observed values. In our scenario the rCs biological cycling enters a steady-state about 15 years after the atmospheric deposits. At that time, the simulations showed an equivalent contribution of foliage and root uptake to the tree contamination. But the root uptake seems not sufficient to compensate the activity decline in the tree. The initial foliar uptake and subsequent internal transfers were confirmed to have a great possible impact on the phasing of tree contamination. An extra finding concerns the roots system acting as a buffer in the early period. The TRIPS model is particularly useful in cases where site-specific integrated datasets are available, but it could also be used with adequate caution to generic sites. This development paves the way for simplification or integration of new modules, as well as for a larger number of other applications for the Chernobyl or Fukushima forests once the appropriate data become available. According to the sensitivity analysis that involves in particular reliable estimates of net foliar uptake as well as root uptake not disconnected from rCs exchange reactions in soil.

Comparison of experimental and calculated shielding factors for modular buildings in a radioactive fallout scenario.

Experimentally and theoretically determined shielding factors for a common light construction dwelling type were obtained and compared. Sources of the gamma-emitting radionuclides 60Co and 137Cs were positioned around and on top of a modular building to represent homogeneous fallout. The modular building used was a standard prefabricated structure obtained from a commercial manufacturer. Four reference positions for the gamma radiation detectors were used inside the building. Theoretical dose rate calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo code MCNP6, and additional calculations were performed that compared the shielding factor for 137Cs and 134Cs. This work demonstrated the applicability of using MCNP6 for theoretical calculations of radioactive fallout scenarios. Furthermore, the work showed that the shielding effect for modular buildings is almost the same for 134Cs as for 137Cs.

Radioactive contamination of the soil-plant cover at certain locations of Primorsky Krai, Sakhalin Island and Kamchatka Peninsula: Assessment of the Fukushima fallout.

The contamination densities of soil-plant cover at certain locations within the Primorsky Krai, Sakhalin Island and Kamchatka Peninsula attributable to 90Sr, 137Cs and 239,240Pu were 500-1390 Bq m-2, 980-2300 Bq m-2 and 37-74 Bq m-2, respectively. These values do not exceed average global background levels, typical for mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The spatial distribution of radionuclides depends on the climatic conditions of the region. A positive dependence of the 90Sr and 137Cs contamination densities, as well as additional 137Cs from NPP "Fukushima" in the soil, was determined based on the sum of annual atmospheric precipitation within the study areas. No trends in the spatial distribution of Pu isotopes were observed. The 137Cs contribution from the "Fukushima" NPP constitutes 11-300 Bq m-2 in the Primorsky Krai, Sakhalin Island and at the Kamchatka peninsula, i.e., 1-22% of the total amount of radionuclides in the soil. The contribution of this radionuclide to the contamination of moss-lichen vegetation ranged from 7 to 42%.

Uncertainty assessment method for the Cs-137 fallout inventory and penetration depth.

Within the presented study, soil samples were collected in year 2007 at 20 different locations of the Greek terrain, both from the surface and also from depths down to 26 cm. Sampling locations were selected primarily from areas where high levels of 137Cs deposition after the Chernobyl accident had already been identified by the Nuclear Engineering Laboratory of the National Technical University of Athens during and after the year of 1986. At one location of relatively higher deposition, soil core samples were collected following a 60 m by 60 m Cartesian grid with a 20 m node-to-node distance. Single or pair core samples were also collected from the remaining 19 locations. Sample measurements and analysis were used to estimate 137Cs inventory and the corresponding depth migration, twenty years after the deposition on Greek terrain. Based on these data, the uncertainty components of the whole sampling-to-results procedure were investigated. A cause-and-effect assessment process was used to apply the law of error propagation and demonstrate that the dominating significant component of the combined uncertainty is that due to the spatial variability of the contemporary (2007) 137Cs inventory. A secondary, yet also significant component was identified to be the activity measurement process itself. Other less-significant uncertainty parameters were sampling methods, the variation in the soil field density with depth and the preparation of samples for measurement. The sampling grid experiment allowed for the quantitative evaluation of the uncertainty due to spatial variability, also by the assistance of the semivariance analysis. Denser, optimized grid could return more accurate values for this component but with a significantly elevated laboratory cost, in terms of both, human and material resources. Using the hereby collected data and for the case of a single core soil sampling using a well-defined sampling methodology quality assurance, the uncertainty component due to spatial variability was evaluated to about 19% for the 137Cs inventory and up to 34% for the 137Cs penetration depth. Based on the presented results and also on related literature, it is argued that such high uncertainties should be anticipated for single core samplings conducted using similar methodology and employed as 137Cs inventory and penetration depth estimators.

Long-term assessment of contaminated articles from the Chernobyl reactor.

The Chernobyl accident caused a release of radioactive materials from the reactor into the environment. This event contaminated people, their surroundings and their personal property, especially in the zone around the reactor. Among the affected individuals were British students who were studying in Minsk and Kiev at the time of the Chernobyl accident. These students were exposed to external and internal radiation, and the individuals' articles of clothing were contaminated. The primary objective of this study was to analyze a sample of this contaminated clothing 20 years after the accident using three different detectors, namely, a BP4/4C scintillation detector, a Min-Con Geiger-Müller tube detector and a high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The clothing articles were initially assessed and found not to be significantly contaminated. However, there were several hot spots of contamination in various regions of the articles. The net count rates for these hot spots were in the range of 10.00 ± 3.16 c/s to 41.00 ± 6.40 c/s when the BP4/4C scintillation detector was used. The HPGe detector was used to identify the radionuclides present in the clothing, and the results indicated that the only active radionuclide was (137)Cs because of this isotope's long half-life.

Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan.

Lightweight aerial vehicles for monitoring, assessment and mapping of radiation anomalies.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) incident released a significant mass of radioactive material into the atmosphere. An estimated 22% of this material fell out over land following the incident. Immediately following the disaster, there was a severe lack of information not only pertaining to the identity of the radioactive material released, but also its distribution as fallout in the surrounding regions. Indeed, emergency aid groups including the UN did not have sufficient location specific radiation data to accurately assign exclusion and evacuation zones surrounding the plant in the days and weeks following the incident. A newly developed instrument to provide rapid and high spatial resolution assessment of radionuclide contamination in the environment is presented. The device consists of a low cost, lightweight, unmanned aerial platform with a microcontroller and integrated gamma spectrometer, GPS and LIDAR. We demonstrate that with this instrument it is possible to rapidly and remotely detect ground-based radiation anomalies with a high spatial resolution (<1 m). Critically, as the device is remotely operated, the user is removed from any unnecessary or unforeseen exposure to elevated levels of radiation.

Assessment of radiation doses in the UK from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear accident.

PHE has undertaken a simple dose assessment for members of the public living in the UK at the time of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in March 2011. PHE reported that there was no public health risk to the UK from the release of material from the accident in a statement made on 29 March 2013. This assessment confirms the initial estimate of the doses which were about the same as a person in the UK would receive in an hour from natural background.

Suitability of 239+240Pu and 137Cs as tracers for soil erosion assessment in mountain grasslands.

Anthropogenic radionuclides have been distributed globally due to nuclear weapons testing, nuclear accidents, nuclear weapons fabrication, and nuclear fuel reprocessing. While the negative consequences of this radioactive contamination are self-evident, the ubiquitous fallout radionuclides (FRNs) distribution form the basis for the use as tracers in ecological studies, namely for soil erosion assessment. Soil erosion is a major threat to mountain ecosystems worldwide. We compare the suitability of the anthropogenic FRNs, 137Cs and 239+240Pu as soil erosion tracers in two alpine valleys of Switzerland (Urseren Valley, Canton Uri, Central Swiss Alps and Val Piora, Ticino, Southern Alps). We sampled reference and potentially erosive sites in transects along both valleys. 137Cs measurements of soil samples were performed with a Li-drifted Germanium detector and 239+240Pu with ICP-MS. Our data indicates a heterogeneous deposition of the 137Cs, since most of the fallout origins from the Chernobyl April/May 1986 accident, when large parts of the European Alps were still snow-covered. In contrast, 239+240Pu fallout originated mainly from 1950s to 1960s atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, resulting in a more homogenous distribution and thus seems to be a more suitable tracer in mountainous grasslands. Soil erosion assessment using 239+240Pu as a tracer pointed to a huge dynamic and high heterogeneity of erosive processes (between sedimentation of 1.9 and 7 t ha(-1) yr(-1) and erosion of 0.2-16.4 t ha(-1) yr(-1) in the Urseren Valley and sedimentation of 0.4-20.3 t ha(-1) yr(-1) and erosion of 0.1-16.4 t ha(-1) yr(-1) at Val Piora). Our study represents a novel and successful application of 239+240Pu as a tracer of soil erosion in a mountain environment.

Early in situ measurement of radioactive fallout in Fukushima city due to Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.

Using a high-purity germanium detector, both indoor and outdoor radionuclides that had deposited 1.5 d after the radioactive fallout events in the city of Fukushima were experimentally measured. Eleven artificial ((131)I, (132)I, (134)Cs, (136)Cs, (137)Cs, (129)Te, (129m)Te, (131m)Te, (132)Te, (140)La and (99m)Tc) and 5 natural radionuclides were identified. Total air kerma rates were mainly due to (132)I, (134)Cs and (136)Cs from 4 to 6 µGy/h at a 7.5-cm height from the ground. Radioactive contamination on the ground was contributed by (132)I and (132)Te, from 330 to 420 Bq/cm(2). In a worst-case scenario, the maximum skin dose rates were estimated to be from 520 to 670 µGy/h. Effective dose rates were evaluated to be 10 to 15 µSv/h and reached 17.9 µSv/h at 4 a.m. on 16 March. In the effective dose rates, (132)I, (134)Cs and (132)Te were the main contributors. Our measurements are useful for estimating dose levels in the public in the city of Fukushima during the days after radioactive fallout contamination.

Measures against increased environmental radiation dose by the TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident in some local governments in the Tokyo metropolitan area: focusing on examples of both Kashiwa and Nagareyama cities in Chiba prefecture.

The accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant of Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (TEPCO) after the great east Japan earthquake (11 March 2011) elevated the background level of environmental radiation in Eastern Japan. Around the Tokyo metropolitan area, especially around Kashiwa and Nagareyama cities, the ambient dose equivalent rate has been significantly increased after the accident. Responding to strong requests from citizens, the local governments started to monitor the ambient dose equivalent rate precisely and officially, about 3 months after the accident had occurred. The two cities in cooperation with each other also organised a local forum supported by three radiation specialists. In this article, the activities of the local governments are introduced, with main focus on radiation monitoring and measurements. Topics are standardisation of environmental radiation measurements for ambient dose rate, dose mapping activity, investigation of foodstuff and drinking water, lending survey meters to citizens, etc. Based on the data and facts mainly gained by radiation monitoring, risk management and relating activity have been organised. 'Small consultation meetings in kindergartens', 'health consultation service for citizens', 'education meeting on radiation protection for teachers, medical staffs, local government staffs, and leaders of active volunteer parties' and 'decontamination activity', etc. are present key activities of the risk management and restoration around the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Evaluation of internal contamination levels after a radiological dispersal device incident using portal monitors.

Following a radioactive dispersal device (RDD) incident, it may be necessary to evaluate the internal contamination levels of a large number of potentially affected individuals to determine if immediate medical follow-up is necessary. Since the current laboratory capacity to screen for internal contamination is limited, rapid field screening methods can be useful in prioritising individuals. This study evaluated the suitability of a radiation portal monitor for such screening. A model of the portal monitor was created for use with models of six anthropomorphic phantoms in Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Code Version 5 (MCNP) X-5 Monte Carlo Team (MCNP-A General Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport Code Version 5. LA-CP-03-0245. Vol. 2. Los Alamos National Laboratory, 2004.). The count rates of the portal monitor were simulated for inhalation and ingestion of likely radionuclides from an RDD for each of the phantoms. The time-dependant organ concentrations of the radionuclides were determined using Dose and Risk Calculation Software Eckerman, Leggett, Cristy, Nelson, Ryman, Sjoreen and Ward (Dose and Risk Calculation Software Ver. 8.4. ORNL/TM-2001/190. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2006.). Portal monitor count rates corresponding to a committed effective dose E(50) of 10 mSv are reported.

An assessment of radiation doses at an educational institution 57.8 km away from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant 1 month after the nuclear accident.

OBJECTIVES: On 11 March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred. Due to this earthquake and subsequent tsunami, malfunctions occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Radioactive material even reached the investigated educational institution despite being 57.8 km away from the power station. With the goal of ensuring the safety of our students, we decided to carry out a risk assessment of the premises of this educational institution by measuring radiation doses at certain locations, making it possible to calculate estimated radiation accumulation. METHODS: Systematic sampling was carried out at measurement points spaced at regular intervals for a total of 24 indoor and outdoor areas, with 137 measurements at heights of 1 cm and 100 cm above the ground surface. Radiation survey meters were used to measure environmental radiation doses. RESULTS: Radiation dose rates and count rates were higher outdoors than indoors, and higher 1 cm above the ground surface than at 100 cm. Radiation doses 1 cm above the ground surface were higher on grass and moss than on asphalt and soil. The estimated radiation exposure for a student spending an average of 11 h on site at this educational institution was 9.80 µSv. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental radiation doses at our educational institution 57.8 km away from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant 1 month after the accident were lower than the national regulation dose for schools (3.8 µSv/h) at most points. Differences in radiation doses depending on outdoor surface properties are important to note for risk reduction.

Biomonitoring fallout 137Cs in resident and migratory fishes collected along the southern coast of India and assessment of dose.

The globally distributed fallout radionuclide (137)Cs was monitored in 25 resident and 22 migratory fish species collected from some regions of west and east coast of southern India to establish a baseline data. The samples were collected during June 2008 to June 2009. Higher level of (137)Cs was noted in planktivorous fishes and lower level in herbivores. A significant variation in (137)Cs was observed between fishes with different feeding habits and different migratory pattern. Oceanodromic migratory fishes displayed higher cesium levels than other migratory types. Similarly, migratory fishes displayed higher (137)Cs concentration compared to resident fishes. The overall range of (137)Cs varied from 0.06 to 0.3 Bq/kg in fishes. The biological concentration varied from 55 to 250. The average external dose rate to fishes was calculated to be 2.7 × 10(-7) µGy/h, while the internal dose rate varied from 8.50 × 10(-6) to 5.27 × 10(-5) µGy/h. The hazard quotient for fishes was found to be less than 1. The average intake of (137)Cs via fishes to the public was calculated to be 3.5 Bq/year and subsequently the committed effective dose was 0.05 µSv/year. The data obtained were less than global average and comparable to those of many regions.