Global burden of liver cirrhosis 1990-2019 and 20 years forecast: results from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis is a disease that imposes a heavy burden worldwide, but its incidence varies widely by region. Therefore, we analysed data on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990-2019 and projected the disease development from 2019-2039. METHODS: Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the public Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rate (ASR) of cirrhosis in different regions were calculated. The estimates of risk factor exposure were summarized, and the proportion of causes and risk factors of liver cirrhosis and their relationship with the human development index (HDI) and socio-demographic index (SDI) were analysed. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in 2019-2039 were predicted using Nordpred and BAPC models. RESULTS: Globally, the ASR of cirrhosis incidence decreased by 0.05% per year from 25.7/100,000 in 1990 to 25.3/100,000 in 2019. The mortality risk associated with cirrhosis is notably lower in females than in males (13 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000). The leading cause of cirrhosis shifted from hepatitis B to C. Globally, alcohol use increased by 14%. In line, alcohol use contributed to 49.3% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 48.4% of global deaths from liver cirrhosis. Countries with a low ASR in 1990 experienced a faster increase in cirrhosis, whereas in 2019, the opposite was observed. In countries with high SDI, the ASR of cirrhosis is generally lower. Finally, projections indicate that the number and incidence of cirrhosis will persistently rise from 2019-2039. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis poses an increasing health burden. Given the changing etiology, there is an imperative to strengthen the prevention of hepatitis C and alcohol consumption, to achieve early reduce the incidence of cirrhosis.

This study is an updated assessment of liver cirrhosis prevalence trends in 204 countries worldwide and the first to project trends over the next 20 years.The disease burden of cirrhosis is still increasing, and despite the decline in ASR, the number and prevalence of cirrhosis will continue to increase over the next two decades after 2019.It is alarming that the global surge in alcohol use is accompanied by an increase in DALYs and deaths due to liver cirrhosis.Liver cirrhosis remains a noteworthy public health event, and our study can further guide the development of national healthcare policies and the implementation of related interventions.

Socioeconomic status and health disparities drive differences in accelerometer-derived physical activity in fatty liver disease and significant fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The cornerstone of clinical management of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are lifestyle changes such as increasing physical activity (PA) aimed at improving cardiometabolic risk. To inform NAFLD prevention and treatment guidelines we aimed to: (i) quantify the role of PA on lowering the risk for NAFLD and fibrosis; (ii) characterize NAFLD and fibrosis association with PA in the context of socioeconomic environment. METHODS: A sample of 2648 participants from the NHANES 2003-2006 was selected to develop survey weighted multivariable logistic regression models for predicting NAFLD and significant fibrosis, diagnosed non-invasively via fatty liver index (FLI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. The PA measures were obtained from a hip-worn accelerometer. RESULTS: The predictive model for NAFLD showed AUC of 0.687 and a decrease of 43% in NAFLD risk with moderate vigorous PA (MVPA) (OR = 0.569, p < 0.001). The predictive model for fibrosis had AUC of 0.755 and there was a 48% and a 70% decrease in significant fibrosis risk with MVPA (OR = 0.518, p = 0.022) and total log activity count (TLAC) (OR = 0.296, p = 0.017), respectively. Participants with NAFLD and NAFLD with fibrosis engage in declining PA. Despite having jobs with higher level of PA and participating in more moderate-to-vigorous PA, a larger proportion of Hispanics participants had NAFLD and significant fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate the role of PA as a protective factor against the presence of NAFLD and significant fibrosis. Protective levels of PA in NAFLD differ by races.

Epidemiology of acute hepatitis C and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

Background: The current study uniquely focuses on the global incidence and temporal trends of acute hepatitis C (AHC) and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) from 1990-2019. The risk of vertical transmission and adverse perinatal outcomes associated with HCV infection underscores the importance of prioritising these women in HCV prevention efforts. Methods: Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data, we calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and assessed temporal trends via the average annual percent change from joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort model was employed to understand further the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Results: Over the 30 years, global incidences of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women increased by 46.45 and 72.74%, respectively. The ASIR of AHC was highest in low sociodemographic index regions but showed a declining trend. Conversely, the ASIR of HCV-related cirrhosis displayed unfavourable trends in low, low-middle, and high sociodemographic index regions. Special attention is necessary for sub-Saharan Africa, high-income North America, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia due to their high incidence rates or increasing trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis. Notably, the age-period-cohort model suggests a recent resurgence in AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis risk. Conclusions: The current study is the first to thoroughly evaluate the trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis among reproductive-age women, shedding light on previously unexplored aspects of HCV epidemiology. Our findings identify critical areas where health care systems must adapt to the changing dynamics of HCV infection. The detailed stratification by region and nation further enables the development of localised prevention and treatment strategies.

Burden, Outcome, and Comorbidities of Extrahepatic Manifestations in Hepatitis B Virus Infections.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections affect approximately 296 million people around the world, and the prevalence of any past or present HBV infection during the years 2015-2018 was as high as 4.3%. Acute HBV infection often presents with nonspecific symptoms and is usually self-limited, but 5% of patients can have persistent infections leading to chronic HBV infection and the risk of turning into chronic HBV infection is significantly higher in babies with vertical transmission (95%). Patients with chronic HBV infection are usually asymptomatic, but 15 to 40% of chronic HBV carriers develop cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition to liver-related disorders, HBV is also associated with several extrahepatic complications, including glomerulonephritis, cryoglobulinemia, neurologic disorders, psychological manifestations, polyarthritis, and dermatologic disorders. Making the diagnosis of HBV can be challenging since patients with chronic infections can remain symptom-free for decades before developing cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, and patients with acute HBV infection may have only mild, nonspecific symptoms. Therefore, understanding how this virus causes extrahepatic complications can help clinicians consider this possibility in patients with diverse symptom presentations. The pathophysiology of these extrahepatic disorders likely involves immune-related tissue injury following immune complex formation and inflammatory cascades. In some cases, direct viral infection of extrahepatic tissue may cause a clinical syndrome. Currently, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommends treatment of chronic HBV infections with interferon therapy and/or nucleos(t)ide analogs, and this treatment has been reported to improve some extrahepatic disorders in some patients with chronic HBV infection. These extrahepatic complications have a significant role in disease outcomes and increase medical costs, morbidity, and mortality. Therefore, understanding the frequency and pathogenesis of these extrahepatic complications provides important information for both specialists and nonspecialists and may help clinicians identify patients at an earlier stage of their infection.

The Health Care Burden of Hepatic Encephalopathy.

Hepatic encephalopathy-a common and debilitating complication of cirrhosis-results in major health care burden on both patients and caregivers through direct and indirect costs. In addition to risk of falls, inability to work and drive, patients with hepatic encephalopathy often require hospital admission (and often readmission), and many require subacute care following hospitalization. The costs and psychological impact of liver transplantation often ensue. As the prevalence of chronic liver disease increases throughout the United States, the health care burden of hepatic encephalopathy will continue to grow.

Increasing prevalence of cirrhosis among insured adults in the United States, 2012-2018.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease that is known as a "silent killer" and its true prevalence is difficult to describe. It is imperative to accurately characterize the prevalence of cirrhosis because of its increasing healthcare burden. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, trends in cirrhosis prevalence were evaluated using administrative data from one of the largest national health insurance providers in the US. (2011-2018). Enrolled adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis defined by ICD-9 and ICD-10 were included in the study. The primary outcome measured in the study was the prevalence of cirrhosis 2011-2018. RESULTS: Among the 371,482 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 62.2 (±13.7) years; 53.3% had commercial insurance and 46.4% had Medicare Advantage. The most frequent cirrhosis etiologies were alcohol-related (26.0%), NASH (20.9%) and HCV (20.0%). Mean time of follow-up was 725 (±732.3) days. The observed cirrhosis prevalence was 0.71% in 2018, a 2-fold increase from 2012 (0.34%). The highest prevalence observed was among patients with Medicare Advantage insurance (1.67%) in 2018. Prevalence increased in each US. state, with Southern states having the most rapid rise (2.3-fold). The most significant increases were observed in patients with NASH (3.9-fold) and alcohol-related (2-fold) cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Between 2012-2018, the prevalence of liver cirrhosis doubled among insured patients. Alcohol-related and NASH cirrhosis were the most significant contributors to this increase. Patients living in the South, and those insured by Medicare Advantage also have disproportionately higher prevalence of cirrhosis. Public health interventions are important to mitigate this concerning trajectory of strain to the health system.

Global burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by specific etiologies from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases between 1990 and 2019, considering five etiologies (hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol use, NAFLD and other causes), age, gender, and sociodemographic index (SDI). METHODS: Data on liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases accounted for 1,472,011 (95% UI 1,374,608-1,578,731) deaths worldwide, compared to 1,012,975 (948,941-1,073,877) deaths in 1990. Despite an increase in absolute deaths, the age-standardized death rate declined from 24.43 (22.93-25.73) per 100,000 population in 1990 to 18.00 (19.31-16.80) per 100,000 population in 2019. Eastern sub-Saharan Africa exhibited the highest age-standardized death rate (44.15 [38.47-51.91] per 100,000 population), while Australasia had the lowest rate (5.48 [5.05-5.93] deaths per 100,000 population in 2019). The age-standardized incidence rate of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases attributed to hepatitis B virus has declined since 1990, but incidence rates for other etiologies have increased. Age-standardized death and DALYs rates progressively decreased with higher SDI across different GBD regions and countries. Mortality due to liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased with age in 2019, and the death rate among males was estimated 1.51 times higher than that among females globally. CONCLUSION: Liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases continues to pose a significant global public health challenge. Effective disease control, prevention, and treatment strategies should account for variations in risk factors, age, gender, and regional disparities.

[Analysis and prediction of disease burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2030].

Objective: To comprehensively understand the disease burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2019, as well as to predict the trends in disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Methods: The analysis utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019 (GBD2019). Key indicators such as incidence rate, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability were selected to describe the disease burden of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to depict the temporal trends in disease burden. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was constructed using R software to predict the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China from 2020 to 2030. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in China showed an upward trend, with an EAPC of 0.31% (95%CI: 0.10%-0.52%). However, the DALY declined, with an EAPC of -2.81% (95%CI: -2.92% - -2.70%). The ASMR showed a downward trend, with an EAPC of -2.55% (95%CI: -2.66% - -2.45%). The highest incidence of cirrhosis of liver caused by alcohol and other chronic liver diseases was reported in the age group of 35-49 years, while the ASMR increased gradually with age, with a significant rise after the age of 30. The age-standardized DALY rate peaked between the ages of 55 and 64. The disease burden indicators for males were consistently higher than those for females during the same period. According to the predictions of the BAPC model, from 2020 to 2030, the ASIR for cirrhosis of liver caused by alcohol and other chronic liver diseases in the entire population of China was projected to increase from 3.45/100 000 in 2020 to 3.78/100 000 in 2030, a growth of 9.57%. Conversely, the ASMR was expected to decrease from 1.45/100 000 in 2020 to 1.24/100 000 in 2030, a reduction of 14.48%. Conclusions: The disease burden of cirrhosis of liver caused by alcohol and other chronic liver diseases remained serious in China, especially in men and the middle-aged to elderly population. There is a pressing need to prioritize attention and resources towards these groups. Despite the projected decrease in ASMR, the ASIR continued to rise and is expected to persist in its upward trend until 2030.

Societal costs and survival of patients with biopsy-verified non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: Danish nationwide register-based study.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Studies on the societal burden of patients with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are sparse. This study examined this question, comparing NAFLD with matched reference groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nationwide Danish healthcare registers were used to include all patients (≥18 years) diagnosed with biopsy-verified NAFLD (1997-2021). Patients were classified as having simple steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with or without cirrhosis, and all matched with liver-disease free reference groups. Healthcare costs and labour market outcomes were compared from 5 years before to 11 years after diagnosis. Patients were followed for 25 years to analyse risk of disability insurance and death. RESULTS: 3,712 patients with biopsy-verified NASH (n = 1,030), simple steatosis (n = 1,540) or cirrhosis (n = 1,142) were identified. The average total costs in the year leading up to diagnosis was 4.1-fold higher for NASH patients than the reference group (EUR 6,318), 6.2-fold higher for cirrhosis patients and 3.1-fold higher for simple steatosis patients. In NASH, outpatient hospital contacts were responsible for 49 % of the excess costs (EUR 3,121). NASH patients had statistically significantly lower income than their reference group as early as five years before diagnosis until nine years after diagnosis, and markedly higher risk of becoming disability insurance recipients (HR: 4.37; 95 % CI: 3.17-6.02) and of death (HR: 2.42; 95 % CI: 1.80-3.25). CONCLUSIONS: NASH, simple steatosis and cirrhosis are all associated with substantial costs for the individual and the society with excess healthcare costs and poorer labour market outcomes.

Assessing the impact of comorbid type 2 diabetes mellitus on the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: China bears a high burden of both hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). T2DM accelerates the progression of liver disease among individuals infected with HBV. This study aims to assess the excess disease burden caused by comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals in China. METHODS: We estimated the disease burden of HBV and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030 using individual-based Markov models. The baseline population consisted of 93 million HBV-infected individuals derived from the 2006 National Serological Epidemiological Survey. We developed two models: one incorporated the impact of T2DM on the disease progression of HBV infection, while the other did not consider the impact of T2DM. By comparing the outcomes between these two models, we estimated the excess disease burden attributable to comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals. RESULTS: The incidence of severe HBV complications, including cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related deaths, exhibited an increasing trend from 2006 to 2030 among the Chinese HBV-infected population. Comorbid T2DM increased the annual incidence and cumulative cases of severe HBV complications. From 2006 to 2022, comorbid T2DM caused 791,000 (11.41%), 244,000 (9.27%), 377,000 (8.78%), and 796,000 (12.19%) excess cases of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related deaths, respectively. From 2023 to 2030, comorbid T2DM is projected to result in an 8.69% excess in severe HBV complications and an 8.95% increase in liver-related deaths. Among individuals aged 60 and older at baseline, comorbid T2DM led to a 21.68% excess in severe HBV complications and a 28.70% increase in liver-related deaths from 2006 to 2022, with projections indicating a further 20.76% increase in severe HBV complications and an 18.31% rise in liver-related deaths over the next seven years. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbid T2DM imposes a substantial disease burden on individuals with HBV infection in China. Healthcare providers and health policymakers should develop and implement tailored strategies for the effective management and control of T2DM in individuals with HBV infection.

Analysis of primary care electronic health record data of people living with hepatitis B virus: infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk associated with socio-economic deprivation.

OBJECTIVES: We set out to characterise chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the primary care population in England and investigate risk factors for progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We identified 8039 individuals with CHB in individuals aged ≥18 years between 1999 and 2019 in the English primary care database QResearch. HCC risk factors were investigated using Cox proportional hazards modelling. RESULTS: Most of those with a record of CHB were males (60%) of non-White ethnicity (>70%), and a high proportion were in the most deprived Townsend deprivation quintile (44%). Among 7029 individuals with longitudinal data, 161 HCC cases occurred. Increased HCC hazards were significantly associated with male sex (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.92-5.23), in the fifth deprivation quintile as compared to the third quintile (aHR 1.69, 95% CI 1.01-2.84), with older age (for age groups 56-65 and ≥66 years, compared to 26-35 years, aHRs 2.82 [95% CI 1.45-5.46] and 3.76 [95% CI 1.79-7.9], respectively), Caribbean ethnicity (aHR 3.32, 95% CI 1.43-7.71, compared to White ethnicity), ascites (aHR 3.15, 95% CI 1.30-7.67), cirrhosis (aHR 6.55, 95% CI 4.57-9.38) and peptic ulcer disease (aHR 2.26, 95% CI 1.45-3.51). CONCLUSIONS: Targeting interventions and HCC surveillance at vulnerable groups is essential to improve CHB outcomes and to support progress towards international goals for the elimination of hepatitis infection as a public health threat.

The clinical and financial burden of nonhepatocellular carcinoma focal lesions detected during the surveillance of patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HCC surveillance is challenged by the detection of hepatic focal lesions (HFLs) of other types. This study aimed to describe the incidence, characteristics, outcomes, and costs of non-HCC HFL detected during surveillance. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively analyzed nonstandardized workup performed in French patients included in HCC surveillance programs recruited in 57 French tertiary centers (ANRS CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts, HCC 2000 trial). The overall cost of workup was evaluated, with an estimation of an average cost per patient for the entire population and per lesion detected. A total of 3295 patients were followed up for 59.8 months, 391 (11.9%) patients developed HCCs (5-year incidence: 12.1%), and 633 (19.2%) developed non-HCC HFLs (5-year incidence: 21.8%). Characterization of non-HCC HFL required a median additional of 0.7 exams per year. A total of 11.8% of non-HCC HFLs were not confirmed on recall procedures, and 19.6% of non-HCC HFLs remained undetermined. A definite diagnosis of benign liver lesions was made in 65.1%, and malignant tumors were diagnosed in 3.5%. The survival of patients with benign or undetermined non-HCC HFL was similar to that of patients who never developed any HFL (5-year survival 92% vs. 88%, p = 0.07). The average cost of the diagnostic workup was 1087€ for non-HCC HFL and €1572 for HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Non-HCC HFLs are frequently detected in patients with cirrhosis, and do not impact prognosis, but trigger substantial costs. This burden must be considered in cost-effectiveness analyses of future personalized surveillance strategies.

A prospective study on the prevalence of MASLD in people with type-2 diabetes in the community. Cost effectiveness of screening strategies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: As screening for the liver disease and risk-stratification pathways are not established in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we evaluated the diagnostic performance and the cost-utility of different screening strategies for MASLD in the community. METHODS: Consecutive patients with T2DM from primary care underwent screening for liver diseases, ultrasound, ELF score and transient elastography (TE). Five strategies were compared to the standard of care: ultrasound plus abnormal liver function tests (LFTs), Fibrosis score-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score, Enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF) and TE. Standard of care was defined as abnormal LFTs prompting referral to hospital. A Markov model was built based on the fibrosis stage, defined by TE. We generated the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Of 300 patients, 287 were included: 64% (186) had MASLD and 10% (28) had other causes of liver disease. Patients with significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis due to MASLD were 17% (50/287), 11% (31/287) and 3% (8/287), respectively. Among those with significant fibrosis classified by LSM≥8.1 kPa, false negatives were 54% from ELF and 38% from FIB-4. On multivariate analysis, waist circumference, BMI, AST levels and education rank were independent predictors of significant and advanced fibrosis. All the screening strategies were associated with QALY gains, with TE (148.73 years) having the most substantial gains, followed by FIB-4 (134.07 years), ELF (131.68 years) and NAFLD fibrosis score (121.25 years). In the cost-utility analysis, ICER was £2480/QALY for TE, £2541.24/QALY for ELF and £2059.98/QALY for FIB-4. CONCLUSION: Screening for MASLD in the diabetic population in primary care is cost-effective and should become part of a holistic assessment. However, traditional screening strategies, including FIB-4 and ELF, underestimate the presence of significant liver disease in this setting.

Assessment of TLL1 variant and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Latin Americans and Europeans.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Tolloid like protein 1 (TLL1) rs17047200 has been reported to be associated with HCC development and liver fibrosis. However, to our knowledge, no studies have been performed on Latin Americans and comparative differences between TLL1 rs17047200 in HCC patients from Latin America and Europe are undefined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis was performed on Latin American and European individuals. We analyzed TLL1 rs17047200 on DNA from 1194 individuals, including 420 patients with HCC (86.0 % cirrhotics) and 774 without HCC (65.9 % cirrhotics). RESULTS: TLL1 rs17047200 genotype AT/TT was not associated with HCC development in Latin Americans (OR: 0.699, 95 %CI 0.456-1.072, p = 0.101) or Europeans (OR: 0.736, 95 %CI 0.447-1.211, p = 0.228). TLL1 AT/TT was not correlated with fibrosis stages among metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients from Latin America (OR: 0.975, 95 %CI 0.496-1.918, p = 0.941). Among Europeans, alcohol-related HCC had lower TLL1 AT/TT frequencies than cirrhosis (18.3 % versus 42.3 %, OR: 0.273, 95 %CI 0.096-0.773, p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that the TLL1 rs17047200 AT/TT genotype is a risk factor for HCC development in Latin Americans or Europeans. A larger study integrating ethnic and etiology backgrounds is needed to determine the importance of the TLL1 SNP in HCC development.

Mortality Increased Among Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis Before and Following Different Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted patient care and worsened the morbidity and mortality of some chronic diseases. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalizations and outcomes in patients with cirrhosis both before and during different time periods of the pandemic has not been evaluated. AIMS: Describe characteristics of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and evaluate inpatient mortality and 30-day readmission before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Retrospective single-center cohort study of all hospitalized patients with cirrhosis from 2018 to 2022. Time periods within the COVID-19 pandemic were defined using reference data from the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control. Adjusted odds ratios from logistic regression were used to assess differences between periods. RESULTS: 33,926 unique hospitalizations were identified. Most patients were over age 60 years across all time periods of the pandemic. More Hispanic patients were hospitalized during COVID-19 than before COVID-19. Medicare and Medicaid are utilized less frequently during COVID-19 than before COVID-19. After controlling for age and gender, inpatient mortality was significantly higher during all COVID-19 periods except Omicron compared to before COVID-19. The odds of experiencing a 30-day readmission were 1.2 times higher in the pre-vaccination period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. CONCLUSION: Inpatient mortality among patients with cirrhosis has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to before COVID-19. Although COVID-19 infection may have had a small direct pathologic effect on the natural history of cirrhotic liver disease, it is more likely that other factors are impacting this population.

Global Epidemiology of Cirrhosis: Changing Etiological Basis and Comparable Burden of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis between Males and Females.

INTRODUCTION: The etiology of liver diseases has changed significantly, but its impact on the comparative burden of cirrhosis between males and females is unclear. We estimated sex differences in the burden of cirrhosis across 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019. METHODS: We analyzed temporal trends in the burden of cirrhosis using the methodology framework of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. We estimated annual frequencies and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cirrhosis incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by sex, region, country, and etiology. RESULTS: In 2019, the frequency of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs due to cirrhosis was 1,206,125, 969,068, and 31,781,079 in males versus 845,429, 502,944, and 14,408,336 in females, respectively. From 2010 to 2019, the frequency of cirrhosis deaths increased by 9% in males and 12% in females. Incidence ASRs remained stable in males but increased in females, while death ASRs declined in both. Death ASRs for both sexes declined in all regions, except in the Americas where they remained stable. In 2019, alcohol was the leading cause of cirrhosis deaths in males, and hepatitis C in females. Death ASRs declined for all etiologies in both sexes, except in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The ratio of female-to-male incidence ASRs in 2019 was lowest in alcohol(0.5), and highest in NASH(1.3), while the ratio of female-to-male death ASRs was lowest in alcohol(0.3) and highest in NASH(0.8). CONCLUSION: The global burden of cirrhosis is higher in males. However, incidence and death ASRs from NASH cirrhosis in females are comparable to that of males.

Limited access to liver transplantation and TIPS despite high mortality, healthcare resource use and costs of cirrhosis in Germany.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Data on number of patients with cirrhosis in Germany are limited. We therefore aimed to estimate prevalence, comorbidities, mortality, utilization of healthcare resources and costs of patients with cirrhosis and incidence of decompensation of cirrhosis in Germany. METHODS: This longitudinal observational study was based on an anonymized representative claims database including 4.9 million persons insured by a statutory health insurance (SHI) between 2015-2020. Patients with decompensated and compensated cirrhosis were selected via diagnostic ICD codes and followed for 2 years. RESULTS: Prevalence of cirrhosis in 2015 was 250/100 000, resulting in 201 747 (95% CI: 197 540-206 040) patients extrapolated to the German population. Out of all patients with compensated cirrhosis in 2015 who did not deceased, 16.0% developed a decompensation within 3 years. Overall, 978 patients (Ø-age: 68 years; 60% male) were included in the decompensated, and 5135 patients (Ø-age: 66 years; 59% male) in the compensated cirrhosis cohort. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis had a higher burden of comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index 7.3 vs. 4.4) and 3 times higher costs per quarter (7172 € vs. 2213 €) than patients with compensated cirrhosis. 1-year mortality after decompensation was 51% compared to 8% in compensated cirrhosis. Of note, only few patients with decompensated cirrhosis received a liver transplantation or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) (1% and 5%). CONCLUSION: Patients with cirrhosis have a high healthcare burden in especially decompensated stage. Accordingly, 1-year mortality of decompensated cirrhosis in Germany is high. Despite high health resource utilization, only few patients have access to liver transplantation or TIPS.

Hepatitis B and C in Europe: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period. FINDINGS: In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19·10]) and mortality rate (-33·19% [-37·82 to -28·13]) of HBV-related cirrhosis also decreased in this time period. The age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis C decreased by 3·24% (1·17 to 5·02) and its age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 35·73% (23·48 to 47·75) between 2010 and 2019; the age-standardised prevalence rate (-6·37% [-8·11 to -4·32]), incidence rate (-5·87% [-11·24 to -1·01]), and mortality rate (-11·11% [-16·54 to -5·53]) of HCV-related cirrhosis also decreased. No significant changes were observed in age-standardised rates of HBV-related and HCV-related liver cancer, although we observed a significant increase in numbers of cases of HCV-related liver cancer across all ages between 2010 and 2019 (16·41% [2·81 to 30·91] increase in prevalent cases). Substantial reductions in DALYs since 2010 were estimated for acute hepatitis B (-27·82% [-36·92 to -20·24]), acute hepatitis C (-27·07% [-15·97 to -39·34]), and HBV-related cirrhosis (-30·70% [-35·75 to -25·03]). A moderate reduction in DALYs was estimated for HCV-related cirrhosis (-6·19% [-0·19 to -12·57]). Only HCV-related liver cancer showed a significant increase in DALYs (10·37% [4·81-16·63]). Changes in age-standardised DALY rates closely resembled those observed for overall DALY counts, except for HCV-liver related cancer (-2·84% [-7·75 to 2·63]). INTERPRETATION: Although decreases in some HBV-related and HCV-related diseases were estimated between 2010 and 2019, HBV-related and HCV-related diseases are still associated with a high burden, highlighting the need for more intensive and coordinated interventions within European countries to reach the goal of elimination by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nonalcoholic liver disease: Epidemiology, risk factors, natural history, and management strategies.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is now the most common chronic liver disease worldwide and a leading indication for liver transplantation in the United States. NAFLD encompasses a heterogeneous clinicopathologic spectrum, ranging from nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and progressive fibrosis, which can lead to end-stage liver disease including cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer. Predictive models suggest that over 100 million adults in the United States will have NAFLD by 2030, representing over a third of the population. In this manuscript, we provide an overview of NAFLD risk factors, natural history (including hepatic and extra-hepatic outcomes), diagnosis, and current management strategies.

Incidence and Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhosis: The Multicenter Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy (HEDS) Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy. We aimed to prospectively determine the incidence and risk factors of HCC in a U.S. METHODS: The multicenter Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy study of the National Institutes of Health prospectively enrolled patients with cirrhosis who underwent standard surveillance for HCC. Demographics, medical and family history, etiology of liver disease, and clinical features were evaluated for associations with HCC. RESULTS: Between April 10, 2013 and December 31, 2021, 1723 patients were enrolled and confirmed eligible. During median follow-up of 2.2 years (range, 0-8.7 years), there were 109 incident cases of HCC for an incidence rate of 2.4 per 100 person-years: 88 (81%) patients with very early/early Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage (0, A), 20 (18%) intermediate stage (B), and 1 (1%) unknown stage. Risk factor analyses were restricted to 1325 patients, including 95 incident HCC, with at least 6 months of follow-up. The majority were men (53.2%), obese or severely obese (median body mass index, 30.2 kg/m2), and white (86.3%); 42.0% had history of hepatitis C virus infection, 20.7% had alcoholic liver disease, and 24.9% had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Fourteen risk factors for HCC were significant (P < .05) in univariate analyses, and a multivariate subset was selected using stepwise logistic regression. The multivariate subset contained gender (P < .001; male; odds ratio [OR], 2.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54-4.07), years with cirrhosis (P = .004; OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.1), family history of liver cancer (P = .02; yes; OR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.11-5.86), age (per 5 years; P = .02; OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.03-1.33), obesity (P = .02; yes; OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.08-2.73), aspartate aminotransferase (log(1+AST); P = .06; OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.97-2.42), alpha-fetoprotein (log(1+AFP); P = .07; OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.97-1.77), and albumin (P = .10; OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.46-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: Thus far, this is the largest prospective and geographically diverse study of a U.S. cohort of patients with cirrhosis that validates known risk factors for HCC (gender, age, obesity, years with cirrhosis, family history of liver cancer, baseline AFP, albumin, and AST). The incidence of HCC was 2.4% per 100 person-years.