Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

The Emerging Role of Glucagon-like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists for the Management of NAFLD.

CONTEXT: The burden of cirrhosis from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is reaching epidemic proportions in the United States. This calls for greater awareness among endocrinologists, who often see but may miss the diagnosis in adults with obesity or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) who are at the highest risk. At the same time, recent studies suggest that glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) are beneficial vs nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in this population. This minireview aims to assist endocrinologists to recognize the condition and recent work on the role of GLP-1RAs in NAFLD/NASH. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Evidence from observational studies, randomized controlled trials, and meta-analyses. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Endocrinologists should lead multidisciplinary teams to implement recent consensus statements on NAFLD that call for screening and treatment of clinically significant fibrosis to prevent cirrhosis, especially in the high-risk groups (ie, people with obesity, prediabetes, or T2D). With no US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved agents, weight loss is central to successful management, with pharmacological treatment options limited today to vitamin E (in people without T2D) and diabetes medications that reverse steatohepatitis, such as pioglitazone or GLP-1RA. Recently, the benefit of GLP-1RAs in NAFLD, suggested from earlier trials, has been confirmed in adults with biopsy-proven NASH. In 2021, the FDA also approved semaglutide for obesity management. CONCLUSION: A paradigm change is developing between the endocrinologist's greater awareness about their critical role to curve the epidemic of NAFLD and new clinical care pathways that include a broader use of GLP-1RAs in the management of these complex patients.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of universal hepatitis C screening in all United States pregnancies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal screening for HCV among all pregnant women in the United States. METHODS: We designed a decision-analytic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and outcomes associated with universal HCV screening in pregnancy compared to no screening. A theoretical cohort of 3.9 million women, the approximate number of annual live births in the United States was used. Outcomes included hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, liver transplant and death, in addition to cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Model inputs were derived from the literature and the willingness-to-pay threshold was $100,000 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the results. RESULTS: In a theoretical cohort of 3.9 million women, universal HCV screening resulted in 3003 fewer cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 1484 fewer decompensated cirrhosis, 46 fewer liver transplants and 2665 fewer deaths from HCV when compared to no screening. Universal HCV screening was found to be the dominant strategy, meaning it resulted in lower costs and higher QALYs. Sensitivity analyses showed our model was robust over a wide range of assumptions. CONCLUSION: Among pregnant women in the United States, universal HCV screening is cost effective compared with no screening.

Modelling the cost effectiveness of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk stratification strategies in the community setting.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent worldwide. Identifying high-risk patients is critical to best utilize limited health care resources. We established a community-based care pathway using 2D ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) to identify high risk patients with NAFLD. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of various non-invasive strategies to correctly identify high-risk patients. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was created using a payer's perspective for a hypothetical patient with NAFLD. FIB-4 [≥1.3], NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) [≥-1.455], SWE [≥8 kPa], transient elastography (TE) [≥8 kPa], and sequential strategies with FIB-4 or NFS followed by either SWE or TE were compared to identify patients with either significant (≥F2) or advanced fibrosis (≥F3). Model inputs were obtained from local data and published literature. The cost/correct diagnosis of advanced NAFLD was obtained and univariate sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS: For ≥F2 fibrosis, FIB-4/SWE cost $148.75/correct diagnosis while SWE cost $276.42/correct diagnosis, identifying 84% of patients correctly. For ≥F3 fibrosis, using FIB-4/SWE correctly identified 92% of diagnoses and dominated all other strategies. The ranking of strategies was unchanged when stratified by normal or abnormal ALT. For ≥F3 fibrosis, the cost/correct diagnosis was less in the normal ALT group. CONCLUSIONS: SWE based strategies were the most cost effective for diagnosing ≥F2 fibrosis. For ≥F3 fibrosis, FIB-4 followed by SWE was the most effective and least costly strategy. Further evaluation of the timing of repeating non-invasive strategies are required to enhance the cost-effective management of NAFLD.

Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C in Young Children Reduces Adverse Outcomes and Is Cost-Effective Compared with Deferring Treatment to Adulthood.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating young children with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) with new direct-acting antivirals. STUDY DESIGN: A state-transition model of chronic HCV was developed to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing treatment at age 6 years vs delaying treatment until age 18 years. Model inputs were derived from recently conducted systematic reviews, published literature, and government statistics. Medical care costs were obtained from linked population level laboratory and administrative data (Ontario, Canada). Outcomes are expressed in expected quality-adjusted life-years and costs (CAD$). Analysis included a base-case to estimate the expected value and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of uncertainty of the model inputs. RESULTS: After 20 years, treating 10 000 children early would prevent 330 cases of cirrhosis, 18 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 48 liver-related deaths. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of early treatment compared to delayed treatment was approximately $12 690/quality-adjusted life-years gained and considered cost-effective. Model results were robust to variation in fibrosis progression rates, disease state-based costs, treatment costs, and utilities. CONCLUSIONS: Delaying treatment until age 18 years results in an increased lifetime risk of late-stage liver complications. Early treatment in children is cost effective. Our work supports clinical and health policies that broaden HCV treatment access to young children.

Innovative strategies for reducing the burden of chronic liver disease.

Alcohol consumption is increasing in the UK, bringing an increased incidence of cirrhosis, which in turn can lead to hepatic encephalopathy. This complication of cirrhosis can be devastating for patients and their families, and incurs a large health economic burden to the NHS. Cirrhosis is, of course, preventable. As disease prevention is at the heart of the NHS Long Term Plan, it can be used as the basis of a 10-year plan to avoid the complications of chronic liver disease.

Hepatitis C Management at Federally Qualified Health Centers during the Opioid Epidemic: A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

BACKGROUND: The opioid epidemic has been associated with an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. Federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) have a high burden of hepatitis C disease and could serve as venues to enhance testing and treatment. METHODS: We estimated clinical outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C testing and treatment at US FQHCs using individual-based simulation modeling. We used individual-level data from 57 FQHCs to model 9 strategies, including permutations of HCV antibody testing modality, person initiating testing, and testing approach. Outcomes included life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), hepatitis C cases identified, treated and cured; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Compared with current practice (risk-based with laboratory-based testing), routine rapid point-of-care testing initiated and performed by a counselor identified 68% more cases after (nonreflex) RNA testing in the first month of the intervention and led to a 17% reduction in cirrhosis cases and a 22% reduction in liver deaths among those with cirrhosis over a lifetime. Routine rapid testing initiated by a counselor or a clinician provided better outcomes at either lower total cost or at lower cost per QALY gained, when compared with all other strategies. Findings were most influenced by the proportion of patients informed of their anti-HCV test results. CONCLUSIONS: Routine anti-HCV testing followed by prompt RNA testing for positives is recommended at FQHCs to identify infections. If using dedicated staff or point-of-care testing is not feasible, then measures to improve immediate patient knowledge of antibody status should be considered.

The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. FINDINGS: In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27-1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000-518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3-2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8-2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2-22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8-18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8-38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8-10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3-4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4-133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3-10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. INTERPRETATION: Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A cross-sectional study of the public health response to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in Europe.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing public health problem worldwide and has become an important field of biomedical inquiry. We aimed to determine whether European countries have mounted an adequate public health response to NAFLD and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). METHODS: In 2018 and 2019, NAFLD experts in 29 European countries completed an English-language survey on policies, guidelines, awareness, monitoring, diagnosis and clinical assessment in their country. The data were compiled, quality checked against existing official documents and reported descriptively. RESULTS: None of the 29 participating countries had written strategies or action plans for NAFLD. Two countries (7%) had mentions of NAFLD or NASH in related existing strategies (obesity and alcohol). Ten (34%) reported having national clinical guidelines specifically addressing NAFLD and, upon diagnosis, all included recommendations for the assessment of diabetes and liver cirrhosis. Eleven countries (38%) recommended screening for NAFLD in all patients with either diabetes, obesity and/or metabolic syndrome. Five countries (17%) had referral algorithms for follow-up and specialist referral in primary care, and 7 (24%) reported structured lifestyle programmes aimed at NAFLD. Seven (24%) had funded awareness campaigns that specifically included prevention of liver disease. Four countries (14%) reported having civil society groups which address NAFLD and 3 countries (10%) had national registries that include NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: We found that a comprehensive public health response to NAFLD is lacking in the surveyed European countries. This includes policy in the form of a strategy, clinical guidelines, awareness campaigns, civil society involvement, and health systems organisation, including registries. LAY SUMMARY: We conducted a survey on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease with experts in European countries, coupled with data extracted from official documents on policies, clinical guidelines, awareness, and monitoring. We found a general lack of national policies, awareness campaigns and civil society involvement, and few epidemiological registries.

Decentralized care with generic direct-acting antivirals in the management of chronic hepatitis C in a public health care setting.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus antibody in Punjab, India is 3.6%, with 728,000 people estimated to have viremic chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The Mukh-Mantri Punjab Hepatitis C Relief Fund, launched on 18th June 2016, provides no-cost generic direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) with sofosbuvir + ledipasvir ±â€¯ribavirin or sofosbuvir + daclatasvir ±â€¯ribavirin with the goal of eliminating CHC from Punjab. We assessed the safety and efficacy of decentralized treatment of CHC in a public health care setting. METHODS: Primary care providers from 3 university and 22 district hospitals were trained to provide algorithm-based DAA treatment and supervised by telehealth clinics conducted fortnightly. The diagnosis of cirrhosis was based on clinical and radiological evidence, including aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI ≥2.0) and FIB-4 score (>3.25), or on liver stiffness measurement ≥12.5 kPa on Fibroscan®. RESULTS: We enrolled 48,088 individuals with CHC (63.8% male; mean age 42.1 years; 80.5% rural; 14.8% compensated cirrhosis; 69.9% genotype [GT] 3) between 18th June 2016 to 31st July 2018. While 36,250 (75.4%) patients completed treatment, 5,497 (11.4%) had treatment interruptions and 6,341 (13.2%) patients are currently ongoing treatment. Sustained virological response at 12 weeks after treatment completion (SVR12) was achieved in 91.6% of patients per protocol, 67.6% in intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis, where all interruptions were treated as failures, and 91.2% in a modified ITT analysis where all patients with successful SVR12 in the interruptions arm were included as cured. SVR12 rates in patients with and without cirrhosis and GT3 versus non-GT3 were comparable. The SVR12 rate was 84.4% in patients who had treatment interruptions. CONCLUSION: Decentralized care of patients with CHC using generic all-oral DAA regimens is safe and effective regardless of genotype or presence of cirrhosis. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01110447. LAY SUMMARY: We assessed the safety and efficacy of public health care using no-cost all-oral generic direct-acting antiviral drugs against hepatitis C in the state of Punjab, India. The goal is elimination of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) by 2030 and involves primary care providers at 25 sites in the state. We enrolled 48,088 individuals (63.8% male; mean age 42.1 years; 80.5% rural; 14.8% compensated cirrhotic; 69.9% genotype 3) between 18th June 2016 to 31st July 2018. Cure was achieved in 91.6% of patients, demonstrating that decentralized care of CHC with generic all-oral regimens is safe and effective.

Liver cirrhosis mortality at national and provincial levels in Iran between 1990 and 2015: A meta regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis mortality number has increased over the last decades. We aimed to estimate the liver cirrhosis mortality rate and its trends for the first time by sex, age, geographical distribution, and cause in Iran. METHOD: Iranian Death Registration System, along with demographic (Complete and Summary Birth History, Maternal Age Cohort and Period methods) and statistical methods (Spatio-temporal and Gaussian process regression models) were used to address the incompleteness and misclassification and uncertainty of death registration system to estimate annual cirrhosis mortality rate. Percentages of deaths were proportionally redistributed into cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, C and alcohol use based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study. RESULTS: Liver cirrhosis mortality in elder patients was 12 times higher than that in younger patients at national level in 2015. Over the 26 years, liver cirrhosis mortality in males has increased more than that in females. Plus, the percentage of change in age adjusted mortality rate at provincial levels varied between decreases of 64.53% to nearly 17% increase. Mortality rate has increased until 2002 and then decreased until 2015.The province with highest mortality rate in 2015 has nearly two times greater rate compare to the lowest. More than 60% of liver cirrhosis mortality cases at national level are caused by hepatitis B and C infection. The rate of hepatitis B mortality is four times more than that from hepatitis C. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated an increasing and then decreasing pattern in cirrhosis mortality that could be due to national vaccination of hepatitis B program. However monitoring, early detection and treatment of risk factors of cirrhosis, mainly in high risk age groups and regions are essential. Cirrhosis mortality could be diminished by using new non-invasive methods of cirrhosis screening, hepatitis B vaccination, definite treatment of hepatitis C.

Weight Reduction and Pioglitazone are Cost-Effective for the Treatment of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Thailand.

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated lifetime liver-related clinical outcomes, costs of treatment, and the cost-effectiveness of treatment options for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in Thailand. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a lifetime Markov model was conducted among Thai patients with NAFLD, from a societal perspective. Pioglitazone, vitamin E, a weight reduction program, and usual care were investigated, with the outcomes of interest being the number of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: When compared with usual care, a weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 13.91% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.97, 20.59) and 2.12% (95% CrI 0.43, 4.56), respectively; pioglitazone can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 9.30% (95% CrI -2.52, 15.24) and 1.42% (95% CrI -0.18, 3.74), respectively; and vitamin E can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 7.32% (95% CrI -4.64, 15.56) and 1.12% (95% CrI -0.81, 3.44), respectively. Estimated incremental life expectancy and incremental QALYs for all treatment options compared with usual care were approximately 0.06 years and 0.07 QALYs, respectively. The lifetime costs of both a weight reduction program and pioglitazone were less than usual care, while vitamin E was $3050 (95% CrI 2354, 3650). The weight reduction program dominated all other treatment options. The probability of being cost-effective in Thailand's willingness-to-pay threshold ($4546/QALY gained) was 76% for the weight reduction program, 22% for pioglitazone, 2% for usual care, and 0% for vitamin E. CONCLUSIONS: A weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC occurrences, and dominates all other treatment options. Pioglitazone and vitamin E demonstrated a trend towards decreasing the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases.

Impact of All-Oral Direct-Acting Antivirals on Clinical and Economic Outcomes in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C in the United States.

Approved treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) with all-oral direct-acting antivirals (DAA) therapy is now entering into its fourth year; however, little has been reported on the real-world clinical (decompensated cirrhosis [DCC] and hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) and economic outcomes. A retrospective cohort analysis of the Truven Health MarketScan Database (2012-2016) was conducted. In a cohort of 26,105 patients with newly diagnosed HCV, 30% received all-oral DAA therapy (DAA group) and 70% were not treated (untreated group). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the risk of developing HCC and DCC, stratified by cirrhosis status. Among patients with cirrhosis (n = 2157), DAA therapy was associated with a 72% and a 62% lower incidence of HCC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15-0.52) and DCC (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.26-0.56). Similarly, DAA therapy was associated with a 57% and a 58% lower incidence of HCC (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26-0.71) and DCC (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.30-0.58) in patients with noncirrhotic HCV (n = 23,948). A propensity score-matched cohort of 8064 HCV-infected patients who had at least a 12-month follow-up after HCV treatment was included for economic analysis. For patients with cirrhosis in the DAA group, the mean adjusted liver-related costs ($1749 vs. $4575; P < 0.001) and all-cause medical costs ($19,300 vs. $33,039; P < 0.001) were significantly lower compared with those in the untreated group. The mean adjusted costs were not statistically different between the two groups among patients without cirrhosis. Conclusion: In the short term, all-oral DAA treatment for HCV infection was associated with a decreased risk of developing HCC and DCC, resulting in decreased health care costs, especially in patients with cirrhosis. A longitudinal study is necessary to confirm our findings.

Burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in Australia.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the commonest cause of chronic liver disease in the Australian population, although precise estimates of prevalence are lacking. NAFLD may progress to liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, and liver cancer and is becoming an increasingly common indication for liver transplantation in Australia and New Zealand. There is an extrahepatic burden of NAFLD extending beyond the liver, which is manifested by an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic renal impairment, all of which are common causes of morbidity in the Australian population. Early recognition of those patients at high risk of developing advanced liver disease is essential in order to target those who will benefit from intensive lifestyle modification. In this review, we present data on the epidemiology of NAFLD within Australia, its associated health burden in terms of hepatic and extrahepatic complications, common clinical presentations, and indications for treatment. We also propose a research agenda that highlights knowledge needed to improve diagnosis and management specific to the Australian context.

Treatment of hepatitis C virus leads to economic gains related to reduction in cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis in Japan.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a serious complication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Sustained virologic response (SVR) for HCV is associated with a reduction in cirrhosis, HCC and mortality and their associated costs. Japanese HCV patients are older with higher prevalence of HCC. Here we used a decision-analytic Markov model to estimate the economic benefit of HCV cure by reducing HCC and DCC burden in Japan. A cohort of 10 000 HCV genotype 1b (GT1b) Japanese patients was modelled with a hybrid decision tree and Markov state-transition model capturing natural history of HCV over a lifetime horizon. Treatment options were approved all-oral direct-acting anti-virals (DAAs) vs no treatment. Treatment efficacy was based on clinical trials and transition rates and costs obtained from Japan-specific data. Cases of HCC, decompensated cirrhosis (DCC) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were projected for patients treated with DAAs vs NT. QALYs were monetized using a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥4-to-¥6 million. Incremental savings with treatment were calculated by adding the projected cost of complications avoided to the monetized gains in QALYs. The model showed that DAA treatment vs no treatment, reduces 2057 cases of HCC and 1478 cases of decompensated cirrhosis and saves ¥850 446.73 and ¥338 229.90 per patient (ppt). Additionally, treatment can lead to additional 2.64 QALYs gained per patient. The indirect economic gains associated with treatment-related QALY improvements were ¥10 576 000, ¥13 220 000 and ¥15 864 000 ppt (willingness-to-pay thresholds of ¥4 million, ¥5 million and ¥6 million). Total economic savings of treatment with DAAs (vs no treatment) was ¥7 526 372.63, ¥10 170 372.63 and ¥12 814 372.63, at these different willingness-to-pay thresholds. In conclusion treatment of HCV GT1b with all-oral DAAs in Japan can lead to significant direct and indirect savings related to avoidance of HCC and DCC.

Progress toward implementing the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy: Is HCV elimination possible by 2030?

Catalyzed by the concerns over the growing public health and economic burden of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Switzerland, a diverse group of experts and patient representatives came together in 2014 to develop the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy, setting targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis in Switzerland by 2030. Previous studies have reported the estimated number of chronic HCV infections and forecasted burden of disease given different intervention strategies. However, given new prevalence data by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, which decreased total infections by about half, an updated analysis is warranted. We aimed to provide an updated viremic prevalence estimate for Switzerland and evaluate the impact on forecasted liver related morbidity and mortality of an 'inaction' scenario and intervention scenarios to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis and Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030. A Markov disease-progression model was used to calculate the present and future burden of HCV infection by disease stage according to these different strategies. In 2017, there were an estimated 36,800 (95% UI: 26,900-39,200) viremic infections in Switzerland. Given the current standard of care, total viremic infections are expected to decline by 45%, while cases of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths will decrease by 20%. If treatment and diagnosis efforts were to cease in 2018, late stage HCV-related morbidity and mortality would increase by 90-100% by 2030. Increasing treatment and diagnosis to achieve the Global Health Sector Strategy or Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals by 2030, will reduce the number of chronic infections to less than 13,000 and 4,000, respectively. Although the HCV epidemic is declining in Switzerland, efforts to expand diagnosis and treatment are needed to achieve elimination by 2030.

Cost-Effectiveness of Treating Hepatitis C with Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Infections with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) are a global public health problem. Long-term consequences are the development of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Newly introduced direct acting antivirals, especially interferon-free regimens, have improved rates of sustained viral response above 90% in most patient groups and allow treating patients who were ineligible for treatment in the past. These new regimens have replaced former treatment and are recommended by current guidelines. However, there is an ongoing discussion on high pharmaceutical prices. Our aim was to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of treating hepatitis C genotype 1 patients with sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (SOF/LDV) treatment in Germany. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used a Markov cohort model to simulate disease progression and assess cost-effectiveness. The model calculates lifetime costs and outcomes (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) of SOF/LDV and other strategies. Patients were stratified by treatment status (treatment-naive and treatment-experienced) and absence/presence of cirrhosis. Different treatment strategies were compared to prior standard of care. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model robustness. RESULTS: Base-case analyses results show that in treatment-naive non-cirrhotic patients treatment with SOF/LDV dominates the prior standard of care (is more effective and less costly). In cirrhotic patients an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 3,383 €/QALY was estimated. In treatment-experienced patients ICERs were 26,426 €/QALY and 1,397 €/QALY for treatment-naive and treatment-experienced patients, respectively. Robustness of results was confirmed in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis shows that treatment with SOF/LDV is cost-effective compared to prior standard of care in all patient groups considering international costs per QALY thresholds.

Hepatitis C infection: A multi-faceted systemic disease with clinical, patient reported and economic consequences.

Hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) affects approximately 170-200 million individuals globally. HCV is one of the primary causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis and has been identified as the leading indication for liver transplantation in most Western countries. Because HCV is a systemic disease with hepatic, extrahepatic, economic and patient reported consequences, it is important for healthcare practitioners to understand the comprehensive and multi-faceted picture of this disease. In this context, it is important to fully appreciate the impact of HCV on the individual patient and the society. With the recent advent of the new generation of direct antiviral agents, the long standing goal of eradicating HCV in most infected patients has been accomplished. Therefore, now more than ever, it is critical to assess the total benefits of sustained virological response in a comprehensive manner. This should not be limited to the clinical benefits of HCV cure, but also to account for the improvement of patient reported health and economic outcomes of HCV cure. It is only through this comprehensive approach to HCV and its treatment that we will understand the full impact of this disease and the tremendous gains that have been achieved with the new antiviral regimens.

Early Treatment in HCV: Is it a Cost-Utility Option from the Italian Perspective?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In Italy, the Italian Pharmaceutical Agency (AIFA) criteria used F3-F4 fibrosis stages as the threshold to prioritise the treatment with interferon (IFN)-free regimens, while in genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C (G1 CHC) patients with fibrosis of liver stage 2, an approach with pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN)-based triple therapy with simeprevir was suggested. The key clinical question is whether, in an era of financial constraints, the application of a universal IFN-free strategy in naïve G1 CHC patients is feasible within a short time horizon. The aim of this study is to perform an economic analysis to estimate the cost-utility of the early innovative therapy in Italy for managing hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. METHODS: The incremental cost-utility analysis was carried out to quantify the benefits of the early treatment approach in HCV subjects. A Markov simulation model including direct and indirect costs and health outcomes was developed from an Italian National Healthcare Service and societal perspective. A total of 5000 Monte Carlo simulations were performed on two distinct scenarios: standard of care (SoC) which includes 14,000 genotype 1 patients in Italy treated with innovative interferon-free regimens in the fibrosis of liver stages 3 and 4 (F3-F4) versus early-treatment scenario (ETS) where 2000 patients were additionally treated with simeprevir plus PEG-IFN and ribavirin in the fibrosis stage 2 (F2) (based on Italian Medicines Agency AIFA reimbursement criteria). A systematic literature review was carried out to identify epidemiological and economic data, which were subsequently used to inform the model. Furthermore, a one-way probabilistic sensitivity was performed to measure the relationship between the main parameters of the model and the cost-utility results. RESULTS: The model shows that, in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained, ETS appeared to be the most cost-utility option compared with both perspective societal (ICER = EUR11,396) and NHS (ICER = EUR14,733) over a time period of 10 years. The cost-utility of ETS is more sustainable as it extends the time period analysis [ICER = EUR 6778 per QALY to 20 years and EUR4474 per QALY to 30 years]. From the societal perspective, the ETS represents the dominant option at a time horizon of 30 years. If we consider the sub-group population of treated patients [16,000 patients of which 2000 not treated in the SoC, the ETS scenario was dominant after only 5 years and the cost-utility at 2 years of simulation. The one-way sensitivity analysis on the main variables confirmed the robustness of the model for the early-treatment approach. CONCLUSION: Our model represents a tool for policy makers and health-care professionals, and provided information on the cost-utility of the early-treatment approach in HCV-infected patients in Italy. Starting innovative treatment regimens earlier keeps HCV-infected patients in better health and reduces the incidence of HCV-related events; generating a gain both in terms of health of the patients and correct resource allocation.