Assessment of a Decade of Change in U.S. Assisted Reproductive Technology Cumulative Live-Birth Rates: 2004-2009 Compared With 2014-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of demographic shifts, changes in contemporaneous clinical practices, and technologic innovation on assisted reproductive technology (ART) success rates by conducting an analysis of cumulative live-birth rates across different time periods, age groups, and infertility diagnoses. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of autologous linked cycles comparing cumulative live-birth rates over successive cycles from patients undergoing their first retrieval between 2014 and 2019 in the SART CORS (Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System) database. All cycles reported for these individuals up to 2020 were included for analysis. We compared cumulative live-birth rates stratified by age and infertility cause with published data from the 2004-2009 SART CORS database. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2019, 447,042 patients underwent their first autologous index retrieval, resulting in 1,007,374 cycles and 252,215 live births over the period of 2014 to 2020. In contrast, between 2004 and 2008, 246,740 patients underwent 471,208 cycles, resulting in 140,859 births by 2009. Noteworthy shifts in demographics were observed, with an increase in people of color seeking reproductive technology (57.9% vs 51.7%, P <.001). There was also an increase in patients with diminished ovarian reserve and ovulatory disorders and a decrease in endometriosis, tubal, and male factor infertility ( P <.001). Previously associated with decreased odds of live birth, frozen embryo transfer and preimplantation genetic testing showed increased odds in 2014-2020. Preimplantation genetic testing rose from 3.4% to 36.0% and was associated with a lower cumulative live-birth rate for those younger than age 35 years ( P <.001) but a higher cumulative live-birth rate for those aged 35 years or older ( P <.001). Comparing 2014-2020 with 2004-2009 shows that the overall cumulative live-birth rate improved for patients aged 35 years or older and for all infertility diagnoses except ovulatory disorders ( P <.001). CONCLUSION: This analysis provides insights into the changing landscape of ART treatments in the United States over the past two decades. The observed shifts in demographics, clinical practices, and technology highlight the dynamic nature of an evolving field of reproductive medicine. These findings may offer insight for clinicians to consider in counseling patients and to inform future research endeavors in the field of ART.

The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012-2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia.

BACKGROUND: This study addresses the importance of identifying key characteristics influencing demographic indicators for urban populations, emphasizing the need to consider regional climatic features and ecological factors. The research utilized data from ten main regional cities across the Republic of Kazakhstan. METHODS: This study involved a retrospective analysis based on secondary data from official sources spanning 2012-2020. We employed correlation analysis and multidimensional regression models. RESULTS: Noteworthy predictors for crude birth rate included the influence of effective temperature (ß = 0.842, p < 0.0001), marriage rate (ß = 0.780, p < 0.0001), Gini coefficient (ß = -27.342, p = 0.020) and divorce rate (ß = -2.060, p < 0.0001), with overall strong model performance (R2 = 0.940). The degree of atmospheric pollution (ß = -0.949, p = 0.044), effective temperature (ß = -0.294, p < 0.0001) and Gini coefficient (ß = 19.923, p = 0.015) were the predictors for crude mortality rate, with a high model fit (R2 = 0.796). CONCLUSIONS: The study unveils significant relationships between demographic indicators (crude birth rate, mortality rate) and variables like effective temperature, marriage rate, divorce rate, Gini coefficient, physician density and others. This analysis of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors influencing demographic indicators may help in promoting specific measures to address public health issues in Kazakhstan.

Key drivers of fertility levels and differentials in India, at the national, state and population subgroup levels, 2015-2016: An application of Bongaarts' proximate determinants model.

OBJECTIVES: The transition to small family size is at an advanced phase in India, with a national TFR of 2.2 in 2015-16. This paper examines the roles of four key determinants of fertility-marriage, contraception, abortion and postpartum infecundability-for India, all 29 states and population subgroups. METHODS: Data from the most recent available national survey, the National Family Health Survey, conducted in 2015-16, were used. The Bongaarts proximate determinants model was used to quantify the roles of the four key factors that largely determine fertility. Methodological contributions of this analysis are: adaptations of the model to the Indian context; measurement of the role of abortion; and provision of estimates for sub-groups nationally and by state: age, education, residence, wealth status and caste. RESULTS: Nationally, marriage is the most important determinant of the reduction in fertility from the biological maximum, contributing 36%, followed by contraception and abortion, contributing 24% and 23% respectively, and post-partum infecundability contributed 16%. This national pattern of contributions characterizes most states and subgroups. Abortion makes a larger contribution than contraception among young women and better educated women. Findings suggest that sterility and infertility play a greater than average role in Southern states; marriage practices in some Northeastern states; and male migration for less-educated women. The absence of stronger relationships between the key proximate fertility determinants and geography or socio-economic status suggests that as family size declined, the role of these determinants is increasingly homogenous. CONCLUSIONS: Findings argue for improvements across all states and subgroups, in provision of contraceptive care and safe abortion services, given the importance of these mechanisms for implementing fertility preferences. In-depth studies are needed to identify policy and program needs that depend on the barriers and vulnerabilities that exist in specific areas and population groups.

2021Total Fertility Rates, by Maternal Educational Attainment and Race and Hispanic Origin: United States, 2019.

Objective-This report presents 2019 total fertility rates for the United States, by educational attainment and race and Hispanic origin of mother. Methods-Descriptive tabulations of the total fertility rate by educational attainment of mother for the United States are presented and described. The total fertility rate is the average number of children a group of women would expect to have at the end of their reproductive lifetimes. Data are based on the 2003 revision of the U.S. Standard Certificate of Live Birth. Results-In 2019, the U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) for all women aged 15-49 was 1,705 expected births per 1,000 women. TFRs decreased as level of education increased from women with a 12th grade education or less through an associate's and bachelor's degree, and then rose from bachelor's degree through a doctorate or professional degree. Among the race and Hispanic-origin groups, TFRs were highest for Hispanic women (1,939), followed by non-Hispanic black (1,774) and non-Hispanic white (1,610) women. Rates generally declined from the lowest educational level through a bachelor's degree for non-Hispanic white women, and through an associate's degree for Hispanic women, and then generally rose for both groups for women with advanced degrees. TFRs for non-Hispanic black women declined by educational level through a master's degree. Across the race and Hispanic-origin groups, the lowest TFR by educational level was for non-Hispanic black women with a master's degree (1,038), and the highest was for Hispanic women with a 12th grade education or less (3,025). TFRs for non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women with some college credit or less were generally higher than the rates for non-Hispanic white women, but TFRs for non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women with a master's degree or more were generally lower than the rates for non-Hispanic white women.

Births: Final Data for 2019.

Objectives-This report presents 2019 data on U.S. births according to a wide variety of characteristics. Trends in fertility patterns and maternal and infant characteristics are described and interpreted. Methods-Descriptive tabulations of data reported on the birth certificates of the 3.75 million births that occurred in 2019 are presented. Data are presented for maternal age, livebirth order, race and Hispanic origin, marital status, tobacco use, prenatal care, source of payment for the delivery, method of delivery, gestational age, birthweight, and plurality. Selected data by mother's state of residence and birth rates by age are also shown. Trend data for 2010 through 2019 are presented for selected items. Trend data by race and Hispanic origin are shown for 2016-2019. Results-A total of 3,747,540 births were registered in the United States in 2019, down 1% from 2018. The general fertility rate declined from 2018 to 58.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in 2019. The birth rate for females aged 15-19 fell 4% between 2018 and 2019. Birth rates declined for women aged 20-34 and increased for women aged 35-44 for 2018-2019. The total fertility rate declined to 1,706.0 births per 1,000 women in 2019. Birth rates declined for both married and unmarried women from 2018 to 2019. The percentage of women who began prenatal care in the first trimester of pregnancy rose to 77.6% in 2019; the percentage of all women who smoked during pregnancy declined to 6.0%. The cesarean delivery rate decreased to 31.7% in 2019 (Figure 1). Medicaid was the source of payment for 42.1% of all births in 2019. The preterm birth rate rose for the fifth straight year to 10.23% in 2019; the rate of low birthweight was essentially unchanged from 2018 at 8.31%. Twin and triplet and higher-order multiple birth rates both declined in 2019 compared with 2018.

The secondary sex ratio in Italy over the past eighty years (1940 to 2019) and potential impact of radiological contamination after atmospheric nuclear testing and after Chernobyl: Temporal change-point analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

In Europe, the male to female ratio at birth (secondary sex ratio: SSR; sex odds: SO) is 1.04-1.06, is influenced by many factors and is declining in industrialized countries. This study was carried out to identify possible impacts of fallout by atomic bomb tests or by the Chernobyl event on SSR in Italy. Italy is a country without commercial nuclear power generation for the last four decades and thus nearly free of radiological confounders. Counts of annual male and female live births in Italy are provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and by the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). This study included 57.7 million live births (1940-2019) with overall SSR 1.05829. The Italian SSR trend was modelled with linear and non-linear logistic regression. Trend changes, i.e., periods with level shifts were estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two distinct idealized level shifts were identified superimposed on a uniform secular downward trend. The first one is seen towards the end of the 1960s with a jump sex odds ratio (SOR) 1.00681, p < 0.0001. The second one occurred in 1987 with SOR 1.00474, p < 0.0001. In each of the 3 periods separated by the two jumps, SSR uniformly decreased with trend SOR per 100 years of 0.98549, p < 0.0001. In conclusion, the secular trend in the Italian SSR showed two marked level shifts, at the end of the 1960s and from 1987 onward. These follow the release of radioactivity by atmospheric atomic bomb tests during the 1960s and by Chernobyl in 1986 and corroborate the hypothesis that ionizing radiation increases SSR.

Regional disparities in access to assisted reproductive technology: assessment of patient satisfaction when employing modern technology to close the gap.

PURPOSE: Geographic disparities for assisted reproductive technology (ART) continue to exist. Travel cost and time off work may create additional barriers for patients living remotely. Implementing telehealth can alleviate these barriers by reducing office visits. The aim of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with telehealth during ART. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey and retrospective cohort study. Patients living remotely who underwent ART utilizing telehealth between 2015 and 2018 at a single institution were selected for the telehealth group. The non-telehealth control group included randomly selected patients who underwent IVF at the same institution between 2015 and 2018. Demographic variables and treatment outcomes were obtained for both groups. A patient satisfaction questionnaire was distributed to telehealth patients. Statistical analysis using χ2 test was performed to compare ART outcomes between both groups. RESULTS: Ninety-seven control and 97 telehealth patients were included. For telehealth patients, the mean number of office visits and distance traveled was 2.9 (± 0.8 SD) and 143.1 miles (± 49.2 SD) respectively. 58.8% of patients completed the survey. 44/57 participants had an oocyte retrieval and 42/44 underwent embryo transfer. For those who completed the survey, the clinical pregnancy rate was 31/44 and the live birth rate was 25/44. There was no difference in treatment outcomes between telehealth compared to controls. 73% of patients were highly satisfied with telehealth. CONCLUSIONS: Telehealth can improve access to ART in underserved areas and results in high patient satisfaction. Reproductive health providers could consider telehealth as a safe and efficacious tool to ameliorate geographic disparities.

Trends in Birth Rates After Elimination of Cost Sharing for Contraception by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Importance: Reducing out-of-pocket costs is associated with improved patterns of contraception use. It is unknown whether reducing out-of-pocket costs is associated with fewer births. Objective: To evaluate changes in birth rates by income level among commercially insured women before (2008-2013) and after (2014-2018) the elimination of cost sharing for contraception under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from Clinformatics Data Mart database from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2018, for women aged 15 to 45 years who were enrolled in an employer-based health plan and had pregnancy benefits for at least 1 year. Women without household income information and women with evidence of having undergone a hysterectomy were excluded. Exposure: Section 2713 of the ACA. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the proportion of reproductive-aged women with a live birth by year (measured yearly from 2008 to 2018 [11 time points]) within 3 income categories. The secondary outcome was the distribution of contraceptive method fills in 3 categories by year: (1) most effective methods (long-acting reversible contraception or sterilization), (2) moderately effective methods (pill, patch, ring, and injectable), and (3) no prescription or surgical method. Results: The analytic sample included 4 590 989 women (mean [SD] age; 30.8 [9.1] years in 2013; 3 069 053 White [66.9%]) enrolled in 47 721 health plans. A total of 500 898 participants (40.8%) resided in households with incomes less than 400% of the federal poverty level in 2013. In all 3 years (2008, 2013, and 2018), women in the lowest income category were younger than women in the other income groups (median range, 21-22 years vs 30-34 years) and in households with a higher median number of dependents (9-10 vs 2-4). There was an associated decrease in births in all income groups in the period after the elimination of out-of-pocket costs. The estimated probability of birth decreased most precipitously among women in the lowest income group from 8.0% (95% CI, 7.4%-8.5%) in 2014 to 6.2% (95% CI, 5.7%-6.7%) in 2018, representing a 22.2% decrease (P < .001). The estimated probability decreased in the middle income group by 9.4%, from 6.4% (95% CI, 6.3%-6.4%) to 5.8% (95% CI, 5.7%-5.8%) (P < .001), and in the highest income group by 1.8%, from 5.6% (95% CI, 5.6%-5.7%) to 5.5% (95% CI, 5.4%-5.5%) (P < .001) in the period after the elimination of cost sharing. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the elimination of cost sharing for contraception under the ACA was associated with improvements in contraceptive method prescription fills and a decrease in births among commercially insured women. Women with low income had more precipitous decreases than women with higher income, suggesting that enhanced access to contraception may address well-documented income-related disparities in unintended birth rates.

The main factors affecting Taiwan's economic growth rate via dynamic grey relational analysis.

Ever since the grey system theory was proposed about 40 years ago, its characteristics such as small samples, few data, and uncertainty have been used for study in the literature with increasingly wider scope. Recent studies on grey relation analysis have included static data analyses, and most of them have adopted initial values with only a relational order. Under the same study conditions, if different data preprocessing methods are used, then the relational order will be ranked differently. This study took Taiwan as the object to explore seven economic indices (birth rate (%), Taiwan's total population (thousand people), unemployment rate (%), income per capita (USD), weighted average interest rate on deposits (%), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and national income (NI)) and how they affect the economic growth rate. The traditional static grey relational analysis treated the collected data with taking consideration of time effect which is irrational under some circumstance. An innovative dynamic grey relational analysis was carried out by shifting the raw data due to the time leading or lagging effect which is a mean to improve the capability of traditional grey relational analysis. The differences in analyses between static grey relational analysis and dynamic grey relational analysis via different data preprocessing methods were further discussed, finding that different data preprocessing methods generated a new set of relational orders through the latter. Finally, the prosperity index was used to identify the effects of all factors on economic growth (leading, synchronization, and lagging indices).

Embryo transfer training in fellowship: national and institutional data.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate current national practices in embryo transfer (ET) training in United States reproductive endocrinology and infertility (REI) fellowship programs and live birth rates after ET performed by fellows versus attending physicians. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of U.S. fellowship program directors and fellows in 2019 and retrospective cohort study of IVF cycle outcomes after ET performed by fellows versus attending physicians. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Fellowship program directors and fellows completed a survey. Embryo transfers from 2015-2018 were analyzed. INTERVENTION(S): A survey assessed experiences with ET training. Cycle outcomes were analyzed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Proportion of fellows performing ET during training, and live birth rate following fellow and faculty ETs. RESULT(S): Anonymous surveys were sent to 51 REI fellowship program directors and 142 fellows. Twenty-one percent (15/73) reported that no ETs were performed by fellows. Forty-four percent of third-year fellows had performed fewer than ten ETs during fellowship training. Retrospective review of 940 blastocyst ETs revealed no difference in live birth rates between fellows and attending physicians: 51.6% (131/254) versus 49.4% (339/686), respectively. CONCLUSION(S): This study revealed striking differences between fellowship programs regarding the adequacy of ET training; nearly one-half of third-year fellows had performed fewer than ten ETs. With appropriate supervision, there is no difference in live birth rate between ETs performed by fellows and attending physicians. Efforts should be made to address barriers and set minimums for the number of transfers performed during fellowship.

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts. METHODS: We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions. FINDINGS: The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33-2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84-10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83-11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72-1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594-1056]), China (732 million [456-1499]), the USA (336 million [248-456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151-427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91-2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11-2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (-6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82-8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27-9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cohort Trends in the Association Between Sibship Size and Educational Attainment in 26 Low-Fertility Countries.

Children with many siblings have lower average educational attainment compared with children raised in smaller families, and this disadvantage by sibship size has been observed across many countries. We still know remarkably little, however, about how sibship size disadvantage has changed within countries and how such trends vary across countries. Using comparative data from 111 surveys from 26 low-fertility countries, we find an overall trend of growing sibship size disadvantage across cohorts in the majority of countries: between the 1931-1940 birth cohort and the 1971-1980 birth cohort, 16 of 26 countries showed a statistically significant increase in sibship size disadvantage in education, while only two countries showed a significant reduction in sibship size disadvantage. The disadvantage in years of education associated with having an additional sibling increased remarkably in post-socialist (0.3) and East Asian countries (0.34) and, to a lesser extent, Western European countries (0.2). In contrast, this disadvantage showed little change in Nordic countries (0.05) and even decreased in Anglo-Saxon countries (-0.11). We discuss explanations and implications of our comparative evidence in the context of the intergenerational transmission of education.

Travel Time to Title X Facilities and Teenage Birth Rates in North Carolina.

OBJECTIVES: In the United States, Title X facilities are understood to be an effective starting point for improving teenagers' reproductive health outcomes, including unintended pregnancy. We investigate geographic accessibility of Title X facilities and the relationship between geographic accessibility of Title X facilities and teenage birth rates in the state of North Carolina (NC). METHODS: Vehicular travel time from each ZCTA to its nearest Title X facility was calculated using a geographic information system and summarized as the indicator of geographic accessibility. We used bivariate and multiple spatial lag regressions to evaluate the relationship between ZCTA-level teenage birth rates (n = 754) in 2016 and geographic accessibility to a Title X facility, as well as socioeconomic and demographic factors. RESULTS: Nearly 60% of teenage women lived 30 min or less from a Title X funded facility, while approximately 12% of women lived 60 min or more from the nearest facility. In the regression models, percent non-Hispanic White, percent Hispanic, percent in Poverty, percent not enrolled in school, and population density were associated with teenage birth rates; however, geographic accessibility was only associated in the bivariate model. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that geographic accessibility of Title X facilities is lower in NC than in other states. However, our results suggest that geographic accessibility is not related to teenage birth rates. Overall, these findings may indicate that publicly funded family planning facilities are underutilized by proximal populations or factors other than proximity act as a barrier to utilization.

Adolescent Fertility Is Lower than Expected in Rural Areas: Results from 10 African HDSS.

The adolescent birth rate (ABR) is an important indicator of maternal health, adolescent sexual health, and gender equity; it remains high in sub-Saharan Africa. While Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are the main source of ABR estimates, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) also produce ABRs. Studies are lacking, however, to assess the ease of access and accuracy of HDSS ABR measures. In this paper, we use birth and exposure data from 10 HDSS in six African countries to compute local ABRs and compare these rates to DHS regional rates where the HDSS sites are located, standardizing by education and place of residence. In rural HDSS sites, the ABR measure is on average 44 percent lower than the DHS measure, after controlling for education and place of residence. Strong temporary migration of childless young women out of rural areas and different capacities in capturing temporarily absent women in the DHS and HDSS could explain this discrepancy. Further comparisons based on more strictly similar populations and measures seem warranted.

From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730-1870.

This study draws on a new data set of vital rates and real wages to explore short-term and long-term behavior of the preventive and positive checks in a major economy of premodern mainland Europe. Four results stand out. First, the preventive check was fairly stable throughout the period 1730-1870; its magnitude of 0.2 to 0.35 was comparable with that of England, northern and central Italy, and Sweden. Second, the eighteenth century was characterized by Malthusian disequilibrium in that there was no long-term relationship between the crude death rate and the real wage, whereas the crude death rate's instantaneous response to income changes was a substantial -0.4. Third, the short-term positive check may have weakened over the eighteenth century and largely disappeared in the 1810s. The diversification of food risk resulting from the spread of potato cultivation, market integration, and the development of the nonagricultural sectors are potential explanations of the demise and disappearance of the positive check. Fourth, between the 1810s and the 1860s, vital rates and the real wage were stationary, which is consistent with a post-Malthusian regime in which technological progress depended on population size. The 1810s marked the time when Germany transited from a Malthusian regime in disequilibrium to the post-Malthusian era.

Contraceptive Autonomy: Conceptions and Measurement of a Novel Family Planning Indicator.

Since the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, there has been increased attention to high-quality and rights-based family planning, but these concepts have been difficult to measure. Perhaps due to an intellectual history intertwined with population control, contemporary family planning programs and researchers often use (modern) method use as a primary marker of success, with indicators focusing narrowly on contraceptive use and fertility. This results in a fundamental misalignment between existing metrics and the stated family planning goals of promoting reproductive health and rights. This report describes the rationale for a novel family planning indicator called "contraceptive autonomy" and proposes a methodology for measuring this concept at the population level. Defining contraceptive autonomy as the factors necessary for a person to decide for themself what they want in relation to contraception and then to realize that decision, this indicator divides the contraceptive autonomy construct into subdomains of informed choice, full choice, and free choice. By acknowledging that autonomous nonuse is a positive outcome,aiming to maximize contraceptive autonomy rather than use could help shift incentives for family planning programs and reduce some common forms of contraceptive coercion, as our measurement approach is realigned with our focus on high-quality rights-based care.

Young Adulthood Relationships in an Era of Uncertainty: A Case for Cohabitation.

The young adulthood years are demographically dense. Dr. Ronald Rindfuss made this claim when he was Population Association of America (PAA) president in 1991 (Rindfuss 1991), and this conclusion holds today. I offer both an update of his work by including Millennials and a new view on young adulthood by focusing on an increasingly common experience: cohabitation. I believe we need to move away from our marriage-centric lens of young adulthood and embrace the complexity that cohabitation offers. The cohabitation boom is continuing with no evidence of a slowdown. Young adults are experiencing complex relationship biographies, and social science research is struggling to keep pace. Increasingly, there is a decoupling of cohabitation and marriage, suggesting new ways of framing our understanding of relationships in young adulthood. As a field, we can do better to ensure that our theories, methods, and data collections better reflect the new relationship reality faced by young adults.