Incidence of Clostridioides difficile Infections in Republic of Korea: A Prospective Study With Active Surveillance vs. National Data From Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of hypervirulent strains of Clostridioides difficile, the incidence of C. difficile infections (CDI) has increased significantly. METHODS: To assess the incidence of CDI in Korea, we conducted a prospective multicentre observational study from October 2020 to October 2021. Additionally, we calculated the incidence of CDI from mass data obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) from 2008 to 2020. RESULTS: In the prospective study with active surveillance, 30,212 patients had diarrhoea and 907 patients were diagnosed with CDI over 1,288,571 patient-days and 193,264 admissions in 18 participating hospitals during 3 months of study period; the CDI per 10,000 patient-days was 7.04 and the CDI per 1,000 admission was 4.69. The incidence of CDI was higher in general hospitals than in tertiary hospitals: 6.38 per 10,000 patient-days (range: 3.25-12.05) and 4.18 per 1,000 admissions (range: 1.92-8.59) in 11 tertiary hospitals, vs. 9.45 per 10,000 patient-days (range: 5.68-13.90) and 6.73 per 1,000 admissions (range: 3.18-15.85) in seven general hospitals. With regard to HIRA data, the incidence of CDI in all hospitals has been increasing over the 13-year-period: from 0.3 to 1.8 per 10,000 patient-days, 0.3 to 1.6 per 1,000 admissions, and 6.9 to 56.9 per 100,000 population, respectively. CONCLUSION: The incidence of CDI in Korea has been gradually increasing, and its recent value is as high as that in the United State and Europe. CDI is underestimated, particularly in general hospitals in Korea.

Racial and Ethnic Variation in Receipt and Intensity of Active Surveillance for Older Patients With Localized Prostate Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The use of active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer is increasing, and racial disparities have been identified in its implementation. We investigated differences by race and ethnicity in the utilization and intensity of AS by race and ethnicity among older men with low- and favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer, with particular focus on the integration of multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) into AS protocols. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and Medicare fee-for-service linked database, we identified a cohort of men diagnosed between 2010 and 2017 with low- or favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer. The odds of receiving AS were compared by patient race and ethnicity using multivariable logistic regression models, while the rates of usage of PSA tests, biopsy, and mpMRI within 2 years of diagnosis among men on AS were assessed using multivariable Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Our cohort included 33,542 men. The proportion of men with low-risk disease who underwent AS increased from 29.5% in 2010 to 51.7% in 2017, while the proportion among men with favorable intermediate disease grew from 11.4% to 17.2%. Hispanic (odds ratio [OR] = 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.79) and non-Hispanic Black men (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.89) were less likely to receive AS than non-Hispanic White men for low-risk disease, while non-Hispanic Black men were more likely to receive AS for favorable intermediate disease (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.04-1.39). Non-Hispanic Black men receiving AS underwent prostate MRI at a lower rate compared to non-Hispanic White men, regardless of whether they had low-risk (incidence rate ratio = 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.97) or favorable intermediate-risk (incidence rate ratio = 0.61, 95% CI 0.44-0.83) disease, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The overall adoption of AS for low-risk prostate cancer increased among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. However, a significant disparity exists for non-Hispanic Black men, as they exhibit lower rates of AS utilization. Moreover, non-Hispanic Black men are less likely to have access to novel technologies, such as mpMRI, as part of their AS protocols.

Updated Markov Model to Determine Optimal Management Strategy for Patients with Paraesophageal Hernia and Symptoms, Cameron Ulcer, or Comorbid Conditions.

BACKGROUND: The current paradigm of watchful waiting (WW) in people 65 years or older with an asymptomatic paraesophageal hernia (PEH) is based on a now 20-year-old Markov analysis. Recently, we have shown that elective laparoscopic hernia repair (ELHR) provides an increase in life-years (L-Ys) compared with WW in most healthy patients aged 40 to 90 years. However, elderly patients often have comorbid conditions and may have complications from their PEH such as Cameron lesions. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal strategy, ELHR or WW, in these patients. STUDY DESIGN: A Markov model with updated variables was used to compare L-Ys gained with ELHR vs WW in hypothetical people with any type of PEH and symptoms, Cameron lesions, and/or comorbid conditions. RESULTS: In men and women aged 40 to 90 years with PEH-related symptoms and/or Cameron lesions, ELHR led to an increase in L-Ys over WW. The presence of comorbid conditions impacted life expectancy overall, but ELHR remained the preferred approach in all but 90-year-old patients with symptoms but no Cameron lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Using a Markov model with updated values for key variables associated with management options for patients with a PEH, we showed that life expectancy was improved with ELHR in most men and women aged 40 to 90 years, particularly in the presence of symptoms and/or Cameron lesions. Comorbid conditions increase the risk for surgery, but ELHR remained the preferred strategy in the majority of symptomatic patients. This model can be used to provide individualized management guidance for patients with a PEH.

Optimal age to discontinue long-term surveillance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: comparative cost-effectiveness of surveillance by age.

OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommend long-term image-based surveillance for patients with low-risk intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). This simulation study aimed to examine the comparative cost-effectiveness of continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages and define the optimal age to stop surveillance. DESIGN: We constructed a Markov model with a lifetime horizon to simulate the clinical course of patients with IPMNs receiving imaging-based surveillance. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages to stop surveillance, stratified by sex and IPMN types (branch-duct vs mixed-type). We determined the optimal age to stop surveillance as the lowest age at which the ICER exceeded the willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100 000 per quality-adjusted life year. To estimate model parameters, we used a clinical cohort of 3000 patients with IPMNs and a national database including 40 166 patients with pancreatic cancer receiving pancreatectomy as well as published data. RESULTS: In male patients, the optimal age to stop surveillance was 76-78 years irrespective of the IPMN types, compared with 70, 73, 81, and 84 years for female patients with branch-duct IPMNs <20 mm, =20-29 mm, ≥30 mm and mixed-type IPMNs, respectively. The suggested ages became younger according to an increasing level of comorbidities. In cases with high comorbidity burden, the ICERs were above the willingness-to-pay threshold irrespective of sex and the size of branch-duct IPMNs. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of long-term IPMN surveillance depended on sex, IPMN types, and comorbidity levels, suggesting the potential to personalise patient management from the health economic perspective.

Elective Laparoscopic Paraesophageal Hernia Repair Leads to an Increase in Life Expectancy Over Watchful Waiting in Asymptomatic Patients: An Updated Markov Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to perform an updated Markov analysis to determine the optimal management strategy for patients with an asymptomatic paraesophageal hernia (PEH): elective laparoscopic hernia repair (ELHR) versus watchful waiting (WW). BACKGROUND: Currently, it is recommended that patients with an asymptomatic PEH not undergo repair based on a 20-year-old Markov analysis. The current recommendation might lead to preventable hospitalizations for acute PEH-related complications and compromised survival. METHODS: A Markov model with updated variables was used to compare life-years (L-Ys) gained with ELHR versus WW in patients with a PEH. One-way sensitivity analyses evaluated the robustness of the analysis to alternative data inputs, while probabilistic sensitivity analysis quantified the level of confidence in the results in relation to the uncertainty across all model inputs. RESULTS: At age 40 to 90, ELHR led to greater life expectancy than WW, particularly in women. The gain in L-Ys (2.6) was greatest in a 40-year-old woman and diminished with increasing age. Sensitivity analysis showed that alternative values resulted in modest changes in the difference in L-Ys, but ELHR remained the preferred strategy. Probabilistic analysis showed that ELHR was the preferred strategy in 100% of 10,000 simulations for age 65, 98% for age 80, 90% for age 85, and 59% of simulations in 90-year-old women. CONCLUSIONS: This updated analysis showed that ELHR leads to an increase in L-Ys over WW in healthy patients aged 40 to 90 years with an asymptomatic PEH. In this new paradigm, all patients with a PEH, regardless of symptoms, should be referred for the consideration of elective repair to maximize their life expectancy.

Age-stratified comparison of active surveillance versus radiofrequency ablation for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma using decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Papillary thyroid microcarcinomas may be treated with radiofrequency ablation, active surveillance, or surgery. The objective of this study was to use mathematical modeling to compare treatment alternatives for papillary thyroid microcarcinomas among those who decline surgery. We hypothesized that radiofrequency ablation would outperform active surveillance in avoiding progression and surgery but that the effect size would be small for older patients. METHODS: We engaged stakeholders to identify meaningful long-term endpoints for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma treatment-(1) cancer progression/surgery, (2) need for thyroid replacement therapy, and (3) permanent treatment complication. A Markov decision analysis model was created to compare the probability of these endpoints after radiofrequency ablation or active surveillance for papillary thyroid microcarcinomas and overall cost. Transition probabilities were extracted from published literature. Model outcomes were estimated to have a 10-year time horizon. RESULTS: The primary outcome yielded a number needed to treat of 18.1 for the avoidance of progression and 27.4 for the avoidance of lifelong thyroid replacement therapy for radiofrequency ablation compared to active surveillance. However, as patient age increased, the number needed to treat to avoid progression increased from 5.2 (age 20-29) to 39.1 (age 60+). The number needed to treat to avoid lifelong thyroid replacement therapy increased with age from 7.8 (age 20-29) to 59.3 (age 60+). The average 10-year cost/treatment for active surveillance and radiofrequency ablation were $6,400 and $11,700, respectively, translating to a cost per progression-avoided of $106,500. CONCLUSION: As an alternative to active surveillance, radiofrequency ablation may have a greater therapeutic impact in younger patients. However, routine implementation may be cost-prohibitive for most patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinomas.

Light and shadow of watch-and-wait strategy in rectal cancer: oncological result, clinical outcomes, and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The watch-and-wait (WW) strategy is a potential option for patients with rectal cancer who obtain a complete clinic response after neoadjuvant therapy. The aim of this study is to analyze the long-term oncological outcomes and perform a cost-effectiveness analysis in patients undergoing this strategy for rectal cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data of patients treated with the WW strategy were prospectively collected from January 2015 to January 2020. A control group was created, matched 1:1 from a pool of 480 patients undergoing total mesorectal excision. An independent company carried out the financial analysis. Clinical and oncological outcomes were analyzed in both groups. Outcome parameters included surgical and follow-up costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost per QALY gained or the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: Forty patients were included in the WW group, with 40 patients in the surgical group. During a median follow-up period of 36 months, metastasis-free survival (MFS) and overall survival (OS) were similar in the two groups. In the WW group, nine (22%) local regrowths were detected in the first 2 years. The permanent stoma rate was slightly higher after salvage surgery in the WW group compared to the surgical group (48.5% vs 20%, p < 0.01). The cost-effectiveness analysis was slightly better for the WW group, especially for low rectal cancer compared to medium-high rectal cancer (ICER = - 108,642.1 vs ICER = - 42,423). CONCLUSIONS: The WW strategy in locally advanced rectal cancer offers similar oncological outcomes with respect to the surgical group and excellent results in quality of life and cost outcomes, especially for low rectal cancer. Nonetheless, the complex surgical field during salvage surgery can lead to a high permanent stoma rate; therefore, the careful selection of patients is mandatory.

Cost-effectiveness of active surveillance versus early surgery for thyroid micropapillary carcinoma based on diagnostic and treatment norms in China.

Objectives: In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness comparison of the active surveillance (AS) and early surgery (ES) approaches for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. Methods: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model of PTMC we developed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AS and ES. Our reference case was of a 40-year-old woman diagnosed with unifocal (<10 mm) PTMC. Relevant data were extracted after an extensive literature review, and the cost incurred in each state was determined using China Medicare data on payments for ES and AS. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at ¥242,928/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for any uncertainty in the model's variables. Additional subgroup analyses were performed to determine whether AS was cost-effective when different initial monitoring ages were used. Results: ES exhibited an effectiveness of 5.2 QALYs, whereas AS showed an effectiveness of 25.8 QALYs. Furthermore, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for ES versus AS was ¥1,009/QALY. The findings of all sensitivity analyses were robust. Compared with ES, AS was found to be the cost-effective strategy at initial monitoring ages of 20 and 60 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ¥3,431/QALY and -¥1,316/QALY at 20 and 60 years, respectively. AS was a more cost-effective strategy in patients with PTMC aged more than 60. Conclusions: With respect to the norms of the Chinese healthcare system, AS was more cost-effective for PTMC over lifetime surveillance than ES. Furthermore, it was cost-effective even when the initial monitoring ages were different. In addition, if AS is incorporated into the management plan for PTMC in China at the earliest possible stage, a predicted savings of ¥10 × 108/year could be enabled for every 50,000 cases of PTMC, which indicates a good economic return for future management programs. The identification of such nuances can help physicians and patients determine the best and most individualized long-term management strategy for low-risk PTMC.

The Crying Need for a Better Response Assessment in Rectal Cancer.

OPINION STATEMENT: Since total neoadjuvant treatment achieves almost 30% pathologic complete response, organ preservation has been increasingly debated for good responders after neoadjuvant treatment for patients diagnosed with rectal cancer. Two organ preservation strategies are available: a watch and wait strategy and a local excision strategy including patients with a near clinical complete response. A major issue is the selection of patients according to the initial tumor staging or the response assessment. Despite modern imaging improvement, identifying complete response remains challenging. A better selection could be possible by radiomics analyses, exploiting numerous image features to feed data characterization algorithms. The subsequent step is to include baseline and/or pre-therapeutic MRI, PET-CT, and CT radiomics added to the patients' clinicopathological data, inside machine learning (ML) prediction models, with predictive or prognostic purposes. These models could be further improved by the addition of new biomarkers such as circulating tumor biomarkers, molecular profiling, or pathological immune biomarkers.

Cost-Effectiveness of Active Surveillance Compared to Early Surgery of Small Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Study on a Korean Population.

BACKGROUND: Recently, active surveillance (AS) has been introduced as an alternative to early surgery (ES) for the management of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), because of its indolent features and low mortality. However, its cost effects have not been determined and the findings of current studies differ, according to each country's medical system. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of AS and ES, based on a reference case of a 40-year-old patient diagnosed with PTMC. Costs and transition probabilities were derived from previous clinical studies in Korean populations, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and net monetary benefit (NMB) were calculated. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at USD 100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address the uncertainties in the model's variables. RESULTS: From the base scenario, the cumulative costs and effectiveness were both higher in ES than AS. The ICER for ES, compared with AS, was USD 6,619.86/QALY, lower than the set WTP. The NMB difference between AS and ES increased across the stages (USD 5,980 at the first stage and USD 159,667 at the last stage). The ICER increased along with decreasing age and increasing cost of surgery. The higher the ES utility score and the lower that of AS, the more cost-effective ES, with WTP set at USD 30,000. CONCLUSION: In the current Korean medical system, ES is more cost-effective than AS. ES is more cost-effective as it is diagnosed at young age and followed-up for a long time.

Patterns of multispecialty care for low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer in the use of active surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Multidisciplinary models of care have been advocated for prostate cancer (PC) to promote shared decision-making and facilitate quality care. Yet, how this model applies to low-risk disease where the preferred management is expectant remains unclear. Accordingly, we examined recent practice patterns in specialty visits for low/intermediate-risk PC and resultant use of active surveillance (AS). METHODS: Using SEER-Medicare, we ascertained whether patients saw urology and radiation oncology (i.e., multispecialty care) versus urology alone, based on self-designated specialty codes, for newly diagnosed PC from 2010 to 2017. We also examined the association with AS, defined as the absence of treatment within 12 months of diagnosis. Time trends were analyzed using Cochran-Armitage test. Chi-squared and logistic regression analyses were applied to compare sociodemographic and clinicopathologic characteristics between these models of care. RESULTS: The proportion of patients seeing both specialists was 35.5% and 46.5% for low- and intermediate-risk patients respectively. Trend analysis showed a decline in multispecialty care in low-risk patients (44.1% to 25.3% years 2010-2017; P < 0.001). Between 2010 and 2017, the use of AS increased 40.9% to 68.6% (P < 0.001) and 13.1% to 24.6% (P < 0.001) for patients seeing urology and those seeing both specialists respectively. Age, urban residence, higher education, SEER region, co-morbidities, frailty, Gleason score, predicted receipt of multispecialty care (all P < 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Uptake of AS among men with low-risk PC has occurred primarily under the purview of urologists. While selection is certainly at play, these data suggest that multispecialty care may not be required to promote the utilization of AS for men with low-risk PC.

Use of expectant management based on prostate cancer risk and health status: How far are we from a risk-adapted approach?

OBJECTIVES: While active surveillance, a form of expectant management (EM), is preferred for patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa), some favor a more risk-adapted approach that recognizes patient preferences and condition-specific factors. However, previous research has shown non-patient-related factors often drive PCa treatment. In this context, we characterized trends in AS with respect to disease risk and health status. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Using SEER-Medicare data, we identified men 66 years and older diagnosed with localized low- and intermediate-risk PCa from 2008 to 2017 and examined receipt of EM, defined as the absence of treatment (i.e., surgery, cryotherapy, radiation, chemotherapy, and androgen deprivation therapies) within 1 year of diagnosis. We performed bivariable analysis to compare trends in use for EM vs. treatment, stratified by disease risk (i.e., Gleason 3+3, 3+4, 4+3; PSA<10, 10-20) and health status (i.e., NCI Comorbidity Index (NCI), frailty, life expectancy). We then ran a multivariable logistic regression model to examine determinants of EM. RESULTS: Within this cohort, 26,364 (38%) were categorized as low-risk (i.e., Gleason 3+3 and PSA<10) and 43,520 (62%) as intermediate-risk (i.e., all others). Over the study period, use of EM significantly increased across all risk groups, except for Gleason 4+3 (P = 0.662), as well across all health status groups. However, linear trends did not differ significantly between frail vs. nonfrail patients for both those categorized as low-risk (P = 0.446) and intermediate-risk (P = 0.208). Trends also did not differ between NCI 0 vs. 1 vs. >1 for low-risk PCa (P = 0.395). In the multivariable models, EM was associated with increasing age and being frail for men with both low- and intermediate risk disease. Conversely, EM selection was negatively associated with higher comorbidity score. CONCLUSIONS: EM increased significantly over time for patients with low- and favorable intermediate-risk disease, with the most notable differences based on age and Gleason score. In contrast, trends in uptake of EM did not differ substantively by health status, suggesting that physicians may not be effectively incorporating patient health into PCa treatment decisions. Additional work is needed to develop interventions that recognize health status as an essential component of a risk-adapted approach.

Risks of stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and severe neonatal morbidity by birthweight centiles associated with expectant management at term.

BACKGROUND: Determining the optimal time of birth at term is challenging given the ongoing risks of stillbirth with increasing gestation vs the risks of significant neonatal morbidity at early-term gestations. These risks are more pronounced in small infants. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the risks of stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and severe neonatal morbidity by comparing expectant management with delivery from 37+0 weeks of gestation. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study evaluating women with singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies at 37+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation in Queensland, Australia, delivered from 2000 to 2018. Rates of stillbirth, neonatal death, and severe neonatal morbidity were calculated for <3rd, 3rd to <10th, 10th to <25th, 25th to <90th, and ≥90th birthweight centiles. The composite risk of mortality with expectant management for an additional week in utero was compared with rates of neonatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. RESULTS: Of 948,895 singleton, term nonanomalous births, 813,077 occurred at 37+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. Rates of stillbirth increased with gestational age, with the highest rate observed in infants with birthweight below the third centile: 10.0 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval, 6.2-15.3) at 37+0 to 37+6 weeks, rising to 106.4 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval, 74.6-146.9) at 40+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. The rate of neonatal mortality was highest at 37+0 to 37+6 weeks for all birthweight centiles. The composite risk of expectant management rose sharply after 39+0 to 39+6 weeks, and was highest in infants with birthweight below the third centile (125.2/10,000; 95% confidence interval, 118.4-132.3) at 40+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. Balancing the risk of expectant management and delivery (neonatal mortality), the optimal timing of delivery for each birthweight centile was evaluated on the basis of relative risk differences. The rate of severe neonatal morbidity sharply decreased in the period between 37+0 to 37+6 and 38+0 to 38+6 weeks, particularly for infants with birthweight below the third centile. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the optimal time of birth is 37+0 to 37+6 weeks for infants with birthweight <3rd centile and 38+0 to 38+6 weeks' gestation for those with birthweight between the 3rd and 10th centile and >90th centile. For all other birthweight centiles, birth from 39+0 weeks is associated with the best outcomes. However, large numbers of planned births are required to prevent a single excess death. The healthcare costs and acceptability to women of potential universal policies of planned birth need to be carefully considered.

Incidence of symptomatic gallstones after bariatric surgery: the impact of expectant management.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery is the most effective treatment for sustained weight reduction and obesity-related comorbidities. The development of gallstones as a result of rapid weight loss is a well-known consequence of bariatric procedures. It remains unclear, if there is an increased risk of these gallstones becoming symptomatic. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 505 consecutive patients submitted to either Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass or Sleeve Gastrectomy between January and December 2019 was performed. The aim of our study was to determine the incidence of symptomatic cholelithiasis in asymptomatic patients with their gallbladder in situ after bariatric surgery and to identify potential risk factors for its development. RESULTS: Of the 505 patients included, 79 (15.6%) underwent either previous cholecystectomy. (n = 67, 84.8%) or concomitant cholecystectomy during bariatric surgery (n = 12, 15.2%). Among the remaining 426 (84.4%) patients, only 8 (1.9%) became symptomatic during the 12-month follow-up period. When compared with patients who remained asymptomatic, they had a higher median preoperative BMI (47.0 vs. 42.8, p = 0.046) and prevalence of cholelithiasis on preoperative ultrasound (62.5% vs. 10.7%, p = 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed preoperative BMI and cholelithiasis on preoperative ultrasound as independent risk factors for symptomatic biliary disease (OR 1.187, 95%CI 1.025-1.376, p = 0.022 and OR 10.720, 95%CI 1.613-71.246, p = 0.014, respectively). CONCLUSION: Considering a low incidence of symptomatic gallstones after bariatric surgery, concomitant cholecystectomy should only be performed in symptomatic patients undergoing bariatric surgery. Preoperative factors, such as a higher BMI and positive ultrasound for cholelithiasis, may be related to the development of symptomatic gallstones.

Cost-effectiveness of Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound for Diagnosis and Active Surveillance of Complex Cystic Renal Lesions.

Purpose: To determine the cost-effectiveness of Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound (ceUS) for the active surveillance of complex renal masses compared to the more established imaging modalities of CT and MRI. Methods: A decision-analytic Markov state microsimulation model was constructed in TreeAge Pro. We simulated independent cohorts of 100,000 60-year-old individuals with either a Bosniak IIF or Bosniak III complex renal mass who were followed for 10 years or until death. The model compared three imaging strategies: (1) ceUS, (2) contrast-enhanced magnetic-resonance imaging (ceMRI), and (3) contrast-enhanced computed tomography (ceCT) for active surveillance of a complex renal mass. Results: For 60-year-old patients with either Bosniak IIF or III renal masses, ceUS was the most cost-effective strategy even after varying rates of active surveillance from 10-100%. Conclusion: ceUS is a viable and cost-effective option in the active surveillance of Bosniak class IIF and III renal cysts. Even after varying the rates of active surveillance usage, ceUS was robust and remained the most dominant strategy. For patients who have impaired kidney functions, ceUS is can be a safer alternative than non-contrast enhanced CT or MRI in the management of patients with Bosniak III renal cysts.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of four different SARS-CoV-2 active surveillance strategies: evidence from a randomised control trial in Germany.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has entered its third year and continues to affect most countries worldwide. Active surveillance, i.e. testing individuals irrespective of symptoms, presents a promising strategy to accurately measure the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. We aimed to identify the most cost-effective active surveillance strategy for COVID-19 among the four strategies tested in a randomised control trial between 18th November 2020 and 23rd December 2020 in Germany. The four strategies included: (A1) direct testing of individuals; (A2) direct testing of households; (B1) testing conditioned on upstream COVID-19 symptom pre-screening of individuals; and (B2) testing conditioned on upstream COVID-19 symptom pre-screening of households. METHODS: We adopted a health system perspective and followed an activity-based approach to costing. Resource consumption data were collected prospectively from a digital individual database, daily time records, key informant interviews and direct observations. Our cost-effectiveness analysis compared each strategy with the status quo and calculated the average cost-effective ratios (ACERs) for one primary outcome (sample tested) and three secondary outcomes (responder recruited, case detected and asymptomatic case detected). RESULTS: Our results showed that A2, with cost per sample tested at 52,89 EURO, had the lowest ACER for the primary outcome, closely followed by A1 (63,33 EURO). This estimate was much higher for both B1 (243,84 EURO) and B2 (181,06 EURO). CONCLUSION: A2 (direct testing at household level) proved to be the most cost-effective of the four evaluated strategies and should be considered as an option to strengthen the routine surveillance system in Germany and similar settings.

Cost-effectiveness of induction of labor at 39 weeks vs expectant management by cervical examination.

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses have demonstrated the cost effectiveness of elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation for healthy nulliparous people. However, elective induction of labor is resource intensive, and optimal resource allocation requires a thorough understanding of which subgroups of patients will benefit most. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation is more cost-effective in patients with favorable or unfavorable cervical examinations. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed 2 decision analysis models using TreeAge software: one modeling induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation vs expectant management for a group of nulliparous patients with unfavorable cervical examinations and the other modeling induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation vs expectant management for a group with favorable cervical examinations. Estimates of cost, probability, and health state utility were derived from the literature. Based on previous literature, we assumed that people with favorable cervical examinations would have a lower baseline rate of cesarean delivery and higher rates of spontaneous labor. RESULTS: In our base case analysis, induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation was cost-effective for patients with unfavorable cervical examinations, but not for patients with favorable cervical examinations. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year was 50-fold lower for people with unfavorable cervical examinations ($2150 vs $115,100). Induction of labor resulted in 3885 fewer cesarean deliveries and 58 fewer stillbirths per 100,000 patients for those with unfavorable examinations, whereas induction of labor resulted in 2293 fewer cesarean deliveries and 48 fewer stillbirths with labor induction for those with favorable cervical examinations. The results were sensitive to multiple inputs, including the likelihood of cesarean delivery, the cost of induction, the cost of vaginal or cesarean delivery, and the probability of spontaneous labor. In Monte Carlo analysis, the base case findings held true for 64.1% of modeled scenarios for patients with unfavorable cervixes and 55.4% of modeled scenarios for patients with favorable cervixes. CONCLUSION: With a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year, induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation may be cost-effective for patients with unfavorable cervical examinations, but not for patients with favorable cervical examinations. This result was driven by the likelihood of labor in patients with favorable cervical examinations, and the resultant avoidance of prolonged pregnancy and its complications, including hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and stillbirths. Health systems may wish to prioritize patients with unfavorable cervical examinations for elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation, which may be opposite to common practice.

System and facility readiness assessment for conducting active surveillance of adverse events following immunization in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: To help distinguish vaccine-related adverse events following immunization (AEFI) from coincidental occurrences, active vaccine pharmacovigilance (VP) prospective surveillance programs are needed. From February to May 2021, we assessed the system and facility readiness for implementing active AEFI VP surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: Selected hospitals were assessed using a readiness assessment tool with scoring measures. The site assessment was conducted via in-person interviews within the specific departments in each hospital. We evaluated the system readiness with a desk review of AEFI guidelines, Expanded Program for Immunization Guidelines and Ethiopian Food and Drug Administration and Ethiopian Public Health Institute websites. RESULTS: Of the hospitals in Addis Ababa, 23.1% met the criteria for our site assessment. During the system readiness assessment, we found that essential components were in place. However, rules, regulations and proclamations pertaining to AEFI surveillance were absent. Based on the tool, the three hospitals (A, B and C) scored 60.6% (94/155), 48.3% (75/155) and 40% (62/155), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Only one of three hospitals assessed in our evaluation scored >50% for readiness to implement active AEFI surveillance. We also identified the following areas for improvement to ensure successful implementation: training, making guidelines and reporting forms available and ensuring a system that accommodates paper-based and electronic-based recording systems.

Feasibility Assessment of a School Nurse-Led Approach Using Chronic Absenteeism to Establish the School-Based Active Surveillance Process.

This article shares what was learned from the feasibility assessment of a nurse-led school-based active surveillance (SBAS) pilot to track chronic absenteeism using myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) as an exemplar. This pilot encompassed a 3-year period with training and feedback from school nurses (SNs) on data collection and ME/CFS. SNs found that the SBAS process helped them effectively identifying undiagnosed conditions. The assessment revealed the importance of focusing outreach efforts and establishing relationships with the school leadership in developing health policies and programs in the school setting. The pilot data were used to develop a manual to guide SNs for the SBAS process. This can be viewed as a model for SNs in establishing a surveillance to identify and track conditions like ME/CFS. With overlapping symptoms of Long COVID to ME/CFS, this assessment may provide insights for additional efforts to understand the impact of Long COVID on students' education.