Leaving no one behind in armed conflict-affected settings of Africa: is universal health coverage a possibility or mirage?

The world is off track six years to the 2030 deadline for attaining the sustainable development goals and universal health coverage. This is particularly evident in Africa's armed conflict-affected and humanitarian settings, where pervasively weak health systems, extreme poverty and inequitable access to the social dimensions and other determinants of health continue to pose significant challenges to universal health coverage. In this article, we review the key issues and main barriers to universal health coverage in such settings. While our review shows that the current health service delivery and financing models in Africa's armed conflict-affected settings provide some opportunities to leapfrog progress, others are threats which could hinder the attainment of universal health coverage. We propose four key approaches focused on addressing the barriers to the three pillars of universal health coverage, strengthening public disaster risk management, bridging the humanitarian-development divide, and using health as an enabler of peace and sustainable development as panacea to addressing the universal health coverage challenge in these settings. The principles of health system strengthening, primary health care, equity, the right to health, and gender mainstreaming should underscore the implementation of these approaches. Moving forward, we call for more advocacy, dialogue, and research to better define and adapt these approaches into a realistic package of interventions for attaining universal health coverage in Africa's armed conflict-affected settings.

Damage to the public health system caused by war-related looting or vandalism in the Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia.

Background: The war that started on November 4, 2020, in the Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia severely affected the health sector. However, there is no available evidence to suggest the economic damage caused to the public health system because of war-related looting or vandalism. This study was aimed at estimating the cost of war-related looting or vandalism in Tigray's public health system in Northern Ethiopia in 2021. Methods: A provider perspective, a mixed costing method, a retrospective cross-sectional approach, a 50% inflation rate, and a 50 Ethiopian birr equivalent to one United States dollar ($) for the money value were used. The data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel, taking into consideration the Sendai framework indicators. Results: The total economic cost of the war-related looting or vandalism in monetary terms was more than $3.78 billion, and the damage to the economic value in monetary terms was more than $2.31 billion. Meanwhile, the direct economic loss to the health system in monetary terms was more than $511 million. According to this assessment, 514 (80.6%) health posts, 153 (73.6%) health centers, 16 (80%) primary hospitals, 10 (83.3%) general hospitals, and 2 (100%) specialized hospitals were damaged and/or vandalized either fully or partially due to the war. Conclusion: This war seriously affected the public health sector in the Tigray region. The Federal Government of Ethiopia, the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia, the Tigrayan Government, the Tigray Regional Health Bureau, and the international community must make efforts to find resources for the revitalization of the damaged, plundered, and vandalized healthcare system.

Inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected areas and the Colombian peace agreement: an oaxaca-blinder change decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: The present study analyzes inequalities in catastrophic health expenditures in conflict-affected regions of Meta, Colombia and socioeconomic factors contributing to the existence and changes in catastrophic expenditures before and after the sign of Colombian Peace Agreement with FARC-EP guerilla group in 2016. METHODS: The study uses the results of the survey Conflicto, Paz y Salud (CONPAS) conducted in 1309 households of Meta, Colombia, a territory historically impacted by armed conflict, for the years 2014 and 2018. We define catastrophic expenditures as health expenditures above 20% of the capacity to pay of a household. We disaggregate the changes in inequalities in catastrophic expenditures through the Oaxaca-Blinder change decomposition method. RESULTS: The incidence of catastrophic expenditures slightly increased between 2014 to 2018, from 29.3 to 30.7%. Inequalities in catastrophic expenditures, measured through concentration indexes (CI), also increased from 2014 (CI: -0.152) to 2018 (CI: -0.232). Results show that differences in catastrophic expenditures between socioeconomic groups are mostly attributed to an increased influence of specific sociodemographic variables such as living in rural zones, being a middle-aged person, living in conflict-affected territories, or presenting any type of mental and physical disability. CONCLUSIONS: Conflict-deescalation and the peace agreement may have facilitated lower-income groups to have access to health services, especially in territories highly impacted by conflict. This, consequently, may have led to higher levels of out-of-pocket expenditures and, therefore, to higher chances of experiencing catastrophic expenditures for lower-income groups in comparison to higher-income groups. Therefore, results indicate the importance of designing policies that guarantee access to health services for people in conflict -affected regions but also, that minimize health care inequalities in out-of-pocket payments that may arouse between people at different socioeconomic groups.

Prevalence of clinical malaria and household characteristics of patients in tribal districts of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Malaria, disproportionately affects poor people more than any other disease of public health concern in developing countries. In resource-constrained environments, monitoring the occurrence of malaria is essential for the success of national malaria control programs. Militancy and military conflicts have been a major challenge in monitoring the incidence and controlling malaria and other emerging infectious diseases. The conflicts and instability in Afghanistan have resulted in the migration of refugees into the war-torn tribal districts of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province and the possible introduction of many contagious epidemics. Although malaria is very common in all tribal districts, molecular, clinical and epidemiological data are scarce in these high-burden districts. Therefore, for the proper surveillance, detection, and control of malaria, obtaining and analyzing reliable data in these districts is essential. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: All 1,127 malaria-suspected patients were sampled within the transmission season in the tribal districts of KPK province between March 2016 to December 2018. After a detailed demographic and clinical investigation of malaria-suspected patients, the data were recorded. The data of the control group was collected simultaneously at the same site. They were considered as uncomplicated cases for statistical analyses. Blood samples were collected from malaria-suspected patients for the detection of Plasmodium species using microscopy and nested PCR (nPCR). Microscopy and nPCR examination detected 78% (n = 882) and 38% (n = 429) Plasmodium-positive patients, respectively. Among1,127 of 429nPCR detected cases with both species of malaria, the frequency of complications was as follows: anemia (n = 71; 16.5%), decompensated shock (n = 40; 9%), hyperpyrexia (n = 117; 27%), hyperparasitaemia (n = 49; 11%) hypoglycemia (n = 45; 10.5%), jaundice (n = 54; 13%), multiple convulsions (n = 37; 9%), and petechia (n = 16; 4%). We observed that 37% (n = 157 out of 429) of those patients infected by both Plasmodium species were children between the ages of 1 and 15 years old. The results revealed that Bajaur (24%), Kurram (20%), and Khyber (18%) districtshada higher proportion of P. vivax than P. falciparum cases. Most of the malaria cases were males (74%). Patients infected by both Plasmodium species tended to less commonly have received formal education and ownership of wealth indicators (e.g., fridge, TV set) was lower. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria in tribal districts of the KPK province largely affects young males. P. vivax is a major contributor to the spread of malaria in the area, including severe malaria. We observed a high prevalence of P. vivax in the Bajaur district. Children were the susceptible population to malaria infections whereas they were the least expected to use satisfactory prevention strategies. A higher level of education, a possession of TV sets, the use of bed nets, the use of repellent fluids, and fridges were all associated with protection from malaria. An increased investment in socio-economic development, a strong health infrastructure, and malaria education are key interventions to reduce malaria in the tribal districts.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Self-selection of Asylum Seekers: Evidence From Germany.

I examine the pattern of selection on education of asylum seekers recently arrived in Germany from five key source countries: Afghanistan, Albania, Iraq, Serbia, and Syria. The analysis relies on original individual-level data collected in Germany combined with surveys conducted at origin. The results reveal a positive pattern of selection on education for asylum seekers who were able to flee Iraq and Syria, and the selection is neutral for individuals seeking asylum from Afghanistan and negative for asylum seekers from Albania and Serbia. I provide an interpretation of these patterns based on differences in the expected length of stay at destination, the migration costs faced by asylum seekers to reach Germany, and the size of migration networks at destination.

Factors associated with the use of maternal health services by mothers in a post-conflict area of western Côte d'Ivoire in 2016.

BACKGROUND: In Côte d'Ivoire, maternal health service utilization indicators remain low despite improvements in health coverage and the availability of free health care for pregnant women. The objective of the study was to identify the determinants associated with the use of maternal health services in the department of Bloléquin, in western Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study with an analytical focus. The study sample size was 400 women. Study participants were selected through a two-stage cluster survey. The data were collected using a standardized questionnaire whose items concerned socio-demographic data, the different uses of maternal health services, namely childbirth assisted by a health professional, use of family planning, prenatal consultation and postnatal consultation. Logistic regression was used to investigate factors associated with the use of maternal health services. The significance of the statistical tests was set at 5%. The odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated and interpreted. RESULTS: The results showed that women made less use of family planning services (OR = 0.4), prenatal consultation (OR = 0.2) and assisted childbirth (OR = 0.2) when they provided the funding for care themselves. Women with monthly incomes above $26.8 used family planning services 4 times more than those with lower incomes. Married women used prenatal consultations 3 times more often than unmarried women (CI95% = 1.4-7.3). Desiring pregnancy increased the use of post-natal consultations by 3 times (CI95% = 1.5-6.1). CONCLUSION: Improving the use of maternal health services in western Côte d'Ivoire requires taking into account women's socio-cultural and economic challenges. In initiatives related to the financial empowerment of women, efforts must be made at the level of emotional considerations related to pregnancy.

An Analysis of Large-Scale Forced Migration in Africa.

In this paper, human security-related causes of large-scale forced migration (LSFM) in Africa are investigated for the period 2011-2017. As distinct from the conventional understanding of (national) security, human security involves economic, public health, environmental and other aspects of people's wellbeing. Testing various hypotheses, we have found that civil and interstate conflicts, lack of democracy and poverty are the most important drivers of mass population displacements, whereas climate change has an indirect effect on the dependent variable. As a policy tool, foreign aid is also tested to see if it lowers the probability of LSFM. Our findings have implications for policy planning, since the conventional understanding of security falls short of addressing LSFM without taking various aspects of human security into account.

Armed conflict and maternal mortality: A micro-level analysis of sub-Saharan Africa, 1989-2013.

There is existing country-level evidence that countries with more severe armed conflict tend to have higher Maternal Mortality Rates (MMR). However, during armed conflict, the actual fighting is usually confined to a limited area within a country, affecting a subset of the population. Hence, studying the link between country-level armed conflict and MMR may involve ecological fallacies. We provide a more direct, nuanced test of whether local exposure to armed conflict impacts maternal mortality, building on the so-called "sisterhood method". We combine geo-coded data on different types of violent events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program with geo-referenced survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) on respondents' reports on sisters dying during pregnancy, childbirth, or the puerperium. Our sample covers 1,335,161 adult sisters aged 12-45 by 539,764 female respondents in 30 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Rather than aggregating the deaths of sisters to generate a maternal mortality ratio, we analyze the sisters' deaths at the individual level. We use a sister fixed-effects analysis to estimate the impact of recent organized violence events within a radius of 50 km of the home of each respondent on the likelihood that her sister dies during pregnancy, childbirth, or the puerperium. Our results show that local exposure to armed conflict events indeed increases the risk of maternal deaths. Exploring potential moderators, we find larger differences in rural areas but also in richer and more educated areas.

Does pain, psychological distress and deteriorated family economy follow traumatic amputation among war casualties? A retrospective, cross-sectional study from Gaza.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to explore determinants of psychosocial distress and pain in patients who have survived severe extremity amputation in Gaza. SETTING: This study was conducted in a secondary care rehabilitation centre in Gaza, Palestine. The clinic is Gaza's sole provider of artificial limbs. PARTICIPANTS: We included 254 civilian Palestinians who had survived but lost one or more limb(s) during military incursions from 2006 to 2016. We included patients with surgically treated amputation injuries who attended physical rehabilitation at a specialist prosthesis centre in Gaza. Amputees with injuries prior to 2006 or non-military related injuries were excluded.We assessed their pain and psychological stress using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). We used income, amputation severity scored by proximity to torso, current employment status, loss of family members and loss of home as independent variables. RESULTS: The amputees median age was 23 years at the time of trauma, while a median of 4.3 years had passed from trauma to study inclusion. Nine of 10 were male, while 43 were children when they were amputated (17%≤18 years). One hundred and ninety-one (75%) were unemployed and 112 (44%) reported unemployment caused by being amputated. Pain was the most frequent problem, and 80 amputees (32%) reported to suffer from daily pain. Family income was significantly correlated with the physical pain (OR=0.54, CI 0.36 to 0.80, p=0.002). Psychological distress was higher among unemployed amputees (OR=1.36, CI 1.07 to 1.72, p=0.011). We found no association between psychological distress (GHQ-scores) and the extent of the initial amputation. CONCLUSION: Pain and psychological distress following war-related extremity amputation of one or more limbs correlated stronger with deteriorated family economy and being unemployed than with the anatomical and medical severity of extremity amputations.

Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict.

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

The invisible wounds of five decades of armed conflict: inequalities in mental health and their determinants in Colombia.

ABSTARCT: OBJECTIVES: We analyzed the relation between exposure to the armed conflict and violence with mental health disorders in Colombia and assessed the extent and determinants of socioeconomic inequalities in mental health related to differential exposure to the conflict and violence. METHODS: Regression and decomposition analyses were used in combination with the 2015 nationally representative Mental Health Survey (N = 10,853). Mental health disorders were assessed using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ 20), and socioeconomic status by a Multidimensional Poverty Index. RESULTS: 3% of adults have been victim of a violent crime and 13% victim of the armed conflict. Victims of the armed conflict have 1.74 times higher odds (p < .05) of suffering mental health disorders compared to non-victims. Differential exposure to the armed conflict among lower socioeconomic groups explains 86% of total inequality in mental health disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions that increase quality and access of mental health treatments among victims of the conflict will not only lead to improvements in mental health among victims but also significantly reduce inequalities in mental health in Colombia.

Understanding How Solidarity Groups-A Community-Based Economic and Psychosocial Support Intervention-Can Affect Mental Health for Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence in Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Solidarity groups were established in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo to provide female survivors of conflict-related sexual violence an opportunity to generate income, establish networks of support, and cope with atrocities. Qualitative data were collected from 12 members of solidarity groups to explore factors that contributed to members' mental health. All women identified some improvement (physiological, psychological, economic, or social) since joining the solidarity group, but none of the women were free from ailments. Our findings suggest that a multifaceted intervention in women's own communities has the potential to improve multiple aspects of women's lives, including mental health.