Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Initiation of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

Importance: The influence of race and ethnicity on initiation of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) is relatively understudied in Medicare data. Objective: To investigate disparities in the initiation of DOACs compared with warfarin by race, ethnicity, and social vulnerability. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used a 50% sample of Medicare fee-for-service data from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019 (mean patient enrollment duration, 7.7 years). Analysis took place between January 2023 and February 2024. A cohort of older adults (aged ≥65 years) with atrial fibrillation who newly initiated warfarin or DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban) was identified. Exposure: Patients were classified as non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic. Main Outcomes and Measures: The likelihood of starting use of DOACs compared with warfarin was modeled, adjusting for race, ethnicity, age, sex, county-level social vulnerability, and other clinical factors. Results: Among 950 698 anticoagulation initiations, consisting of 680 974 DOAC users and 269 724 warfarin users (mean [SD] age, 78.5 [7.6] years; 52.6% female), 5.2% were Black, 4.3% were Hispanic, and 86.7% were White. During the 10-year study period, DOAC use increased for all demographic groups. After adjustment, compared with White patients, Black patients were 23% less likely (adjusted odds ratio [AOR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.75-0.79) and Hispanic patients were 13% less likely (AOR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.85-0.89) to initiate DOAC use. Disparities in DOAC initiation were greatest among Black patients in the earlier years but attenuated during the study period. For instance, in 2010, the OR of Black patients initiating DOACs was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.50-0.57), attenuating linearly over time to 0.69 by 2013 (95% CI, 0.65-0.74) and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.89) by 2017. By 2019, these differences became nonsignificant (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.99-1.18). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of Medicare patients with atrial fibrillation, Black and Hispanic patients were less likely to initiate DOACs for atrial fibrillation, although these differences diminished over time. Identifying the factors behind these early disparities is crucial for ensuring equitable access to novel therapies as they emerge for Black and Hispanic populations.

Predictors of adherence to direct oral anticoagulants after cardiovascular or bleeding events in Medicare Advantage Plan enrollees with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are recommended for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) given their improved safety profile. Suboptimal adherence to DOACs remains a significant concern among individuals with AF. However, the extent of adherence to DOACs following a cardiovascular or bleeding event has not been fully evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the pattern of adherence trajectories of DOACs after a cardiovascular or bleeding event and to investigate the sociodemographic and clinical predictors associated with each adherence trajectory by using claims-based data. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted among patients with AF prescribed with DOACs (dabigatran/apixaban/rivaroxaban) between July 2016 and December 2017 and who were continuously enrolled in the Texas-based Medicare Advantage Plan. Patients who experienced a cardiovascular or bleeding event while using the DOACs were further included in the analysis. The sample was limited to patients who experienced a clinical event such as a cardiovascular or bleeding event while using the DOACs. The clinical events considered in this study were cardiovascular (stroke, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, systemic embolism) and bleeding events. To assess adherence patterns, each patient with a DOAC prescription was followed up for a year after experiencing a clinical event. The monthly adherence to DOACs after these events was evaluated using the proportion of days covered (PDC). A group-based trajectory model incorporated the monthly PDC to classify groups of patients based on their distinct patterns of adherence. Predictors associated with each trajectory were assessed using a multinomial logistic regression model, with the adherent trajectory serving as the reference group in the outcome variable. RESULTS: Among the 694 patients with AF who experienced clinical events after the initiation of DOACs, 3 distinct adherence trajectories were identified: intermediate nonadherent (30.50%), adherent (37.7%), and low adherent (31.8%); the mean PDC was 0.47 for the intermediate nonadherent trajectory, 0.93 for the adherent trajectory, and 0.01 for low adherent trajectory. The low-income subsidy was significantly associated with lower adherence trajectories (odds ratio [OR] = 4.81; 95% CI = 3.07-7.51) and with intermediate nonadherent trajectories (OR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.06-2.34). Also, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use was significantly associated with lower adherence trajectories (OR = 5.10; 95% CI = 1.95-13.36) and intermediate nonadherent trajectories (OR = 3.17; 95% CI = 1.26-7.93). Other predictors significantly associated with both nonadherent trajectories are type of DOACs (OR = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35-0.79), presence of coronary artery disease (OR = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.01-3.55), and having 2 or more clinical events (OR = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.09-2.50). CONCLUSIONS: Predictors identified provide valuable insights into the suboptimal adherence of DOACs among Medicare Advantage Plan enrollees with AF, which can guide the development of targeted interventions to enhance adherence in this high-risk patient population.

Dispensing pharmacy chains and direct anticoagulants: Potential associations with patient outcomes.

PURPOSE: Pharmacy chains can differ with respect to the characteristics of their patient populations as well as their nonprescription products, services, and practices, and thus may serve as a surrogate for potential unmeasured confounding in observational studies of prescription drugs. This study evaluates whether a single-source drug can have different patient outcomes based on the dispensing pharmacy chain. METHODS: Separate analyses for two anticoagulant drugs, rivaroxaban and apixaban, were conducted using Medicare Fee-for-Service claims evaluating the association between dispensing pharmacy chain and outcomes of acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, all-cause mortality, and major GI bleeding. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to balance baseline covariates across pharmacy chain cohorts, and outcome association was assessed with a Cox Proportional Hazards model. RESULTS: We observed no differences in outcomes across pharmacy chains for apixaban recipients. Rivaroxaban recipients from pharmacy chain C, however, had lower rates of GI bleeding (adjusted HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.69-1.00) and ischemic stroke (adjusted HR 0.57; 95% CI 0.38-0.87) as compared to chain A in primary analyses with a 3-day grace period. The results moved closer to the null when 14- and 30-day grace periods were implemented. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that dispensing pharmacy chains may have the potential to act as a confounder of associations between drug exposure and outcome in some observational studies. Additional studies of potential confounding by pharmacy chain are needed. Further evaluation of potential pharmacy chain effects on safe use would be of value.

Medications mostly associated with hematuria: assessment of the EudraVigilance and Food and Drug Administration pharmacovigilance databases entries.

BACKGROUND: Drugs may have a direct causative role in triggering hematuria. The range of medications which may be responsible for hematuria is wide, but little is known on those which are most frequently involved. The aim of our study was to identify and compare drugs mostly related with hematuria. METHODS: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database and the EudraVigilance (EV) database were queried to identify the drugs which were associated the most with hematuria individual reports till 30 September 2021. Rivaroxaban, aspirin, warfarin sodium, clopidogrel bisulfate, dabigatran etexilate mesylate, apixaban, warfarin, cyclophosphamide, lansoprazole, enoxaparin sodium, and ibuprofen were analyzed. Analysis per gender, age and severity was performed. Disproportional analysis was performed to compare drugs. RESULTS: Overall, 15,687 reports of hematuria were recorded in the FDA database and 15 007 in the EV database. Rivaroxaban and Warfarin appear to be the most dangerous medications in terms of hematuria when compared to the other medications (PRR>1, P<0.05) while apixaban is the safest one (PRR<1, P<0.05) when compared to the other medications. In terms of severity only 162/15 007 (1.08%) were fatal. Between the drugs analyzed cyclophosphamide 7.2%, enoxaparin (3%) and dabigatran (2.5%) presented a higher number of fatal hematuria episodes when compared to the other drugs (<1%). CONCLUSIONS: Anticoagulants and antiplatelets are more frequently related to hematuria episodes however some differences exist between them. Particularly warfarin and rivaroxaban should be prescribed with caution in patients at increased risk of hematuria. Prescribers should inform those treated with these medications about the risk of hematuria and its sequelae.

Benefits and Harms of Standard Versus Reduced-Dose Direct Oral Anticoagulant Therapy for Older Adults With Multiple Morbidities and Atrial Fibrillation.

Background Dose reduction of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) medications is inconsistently applied to older adults with multiple morbidities, potentially due to perceived harms and unknown benefits of standard dosing. Methods and Results Using 2013 to 2017 US Medicare claims linked to Minimum Data Set records, we conducted a retrospective cohort study. We identified DOAC initiators (apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban) aged ≥65 years with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation residing in a nursing home. We estimated inverse-probability of treatment weights for DOAC dose using propensity scores. We examined safety (hospitalization for major bleeding) and effectiveness outcomes (all-cause mortality, thrombosis [myocardial infarction, stroke, systemic embolism, venous thromboembolism]). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs using cause-specific hazard-regression models. Of 21 878 DOAC initiators, 48% received reduced dosing. The mean age of residents was 82.0 years, 66% were female, and 31% had moderate/severe cognitive impairment. After estimating inverse-probability of treatment weights, standard dosing was associated with a higher rate of bleeding (HR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.03-1.37]; 9.4 versus 8.0 events per 100 person-years). Standard-dose therapy was associated with the highest rates of bleeding among those aged >80 years (9.1 versus 6.7 events per 100 person-years) and with a body mass index <30 kg/m2 (9.4 versus 7.4 events per 100 person-years). There was no association of dosing with mortality (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.96-1.06]) or thrombotic events (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.96-1.41]). Conclusions In this nationwide study of nursing home residents with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, we found a higher rate of bleeding and little difference in effectiveness of standard versus reduced-dose DOAC treatment. Our results support the use of reduced-dose DOACs for many older adults with multiple morbidities.

Assessment of the potential of the MET inhibitor tepotinib to affect the pharmacokinetics of CYP3A4 and P-gp substrates.

Tepotinib is a highly selective, potent, mesenchymal-epithelial transition factor (MET) inhibitor, approved for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer harboring MET exon 14 skipping alterations. The aims of this work were to investigate the potential for drug-drug interactions via cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4/5 or P-glycoprotein (P-gp) inhibition. In vitro studies were conducted in human liver microsomes, human hepatocyte cultures and Caco-2 cell monolayers to investigate whether tepotinib or its major metabolite (MSC2571109A) inhibited or induced CYP3A4/5 or inhibited P-gp. Two clinical studies were conducted to investigate the effect of multiple dose tepotinib (500 mg once daily orally) on the single dose pharmacokinetics of a sensitive CYP3A4 substrate (midazolam 7.5 mg orally) and a P-gp substrate (dabigatran etexilate 75 mg orally) in healthy participants. Tepotinib and MSC2571109A showed little evidence of direct or time-dependent CYP3A4/5 inhibition (IC50 > 15 µM) in vitro, although MSC2571109A did show mechanism-based CYP3A4/5 inhibition. Tepotinib did not induce CYP3A4/5 activity in vitro, although both tepotinib and MSC2571109A increased CYP3A4 mRNA. In clinical studies, tepotinib had no effect on the pharmacokinetics of midazolam or its metabolite 1'-hydroxymidazolam. Tepotinib increased dabigatran maximum concentration and area under the curve extrapolated to infinity by 38% and 51%, respectively. These changes were not considered to be clinically relevant. Tepotinib was considered safe and well tolerated in both studies. The potential of tepotinib to cause clinically relevant DDI with CYP3A4- or P-gp-dependent drugs at the clinical dose is considered low. Study 1 (midazolam): NCT03628339 (registered 14 August 2018). Study 2 (dabigatran): NCT03492437 (registered 10 April 2018).

Utilization outcomes of direct oral anticoagulants in Medicare patients.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the adherence, persistence, discontinuation and switching rates of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for Medicare patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) or venous thromboembolism (VTE). METHODS: This was retrospective observational cohort study design. Medicare Part D claims files were used for the study duration (2015-2018). Inclusion-exclusion criteria were applied to identify the NVAF and VTE sample using dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, edoxaban and warfarin during the identification period (2016-2017). Outcomes of adherence, persistence, time to non-persistence and time to discontinuation were assessed in those who did not switch the index drug in the follow-up period (365 days from the index date). Switching rates were assessed in those who switched the index drug at least once in the aforementioned follow-up period. Descriptive statistics were conducted for all the outcomes, and comparisons were made using t-tests, chi-square, and ANOVA. Logistic regression was conducted to compare the odds of being adherent and the odds of switching in NVAF and VTE patient cohorts. RESULTS: Of all the DOACs, patients with NVAF or VTE were most adherent to apixaban (PDC = 76.88). Among all the DOACs, non-persistence and discontinuation rates were highest for warfarin. Majority of the switches were reported from dabigatran to other DOAC and to apixaban from other DOAC. Despite the better utilization outcomes reported for apixaban users, Medicare plans covered rivaroxaban favorably. It was associated with the lowest mean amount paid by the patient (NVAF: $76; VTE: $59), and the highest mean amount paid by the plans (NVAF: $359; VTE: $326). CONCLUSION: Medicare plans need to consider adherence, persistence, discontinuation and switching rates of DOACs to make the coverage decisions.

Predicting Treatment Effects of a New-to-Market Drug in Clinical Practice Based on Phase III Randomized Trial Results.

Trial results may not be generalizable to target populations treated in clinical practice with different distributions of baseline characteristics that modify the treatment effect. We used outcome models developed with trial data to predict treatment effects in Medicare populations. We used data from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy trial (RE-LY), which investigated the effect of dabigatran vs. warfarin on stroke or systemic embolism (stroke/SE) among patients with atrial fibrillation. We developed outcome models by fitting proportional hazards models in trial data. Target populations were trial-eligible Medicare beneficiaries who initiated dabigatran or warfarin in 2010-2011 ("early") and 2010-2017 ("extended"). We predicted 2-year risk ratios (RRs) and risk differences (RDs) for stroke/SE, major bleeding, and all-cause death in the Medicare populations using the observed baseline characteristics. The trial and early target populations had similar mean (SD) CHADS2 scores (2.15 (SD 1.13) vs. 2.15 (SD 0.91)) but different mean ages (71 vs. 79 years). Compared with RE-LY, the early Medicare population had similar predicted benefit of dabigatran vs. warfarin for stroke/SE (trial RR = 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.50 to 0.76 and RD = -1.37%, -1.96% to -0.77%, Medicare RR = 0.73, 0.65 to 0.82 and RD = -0.92%, -1.26% to -0.59%) and risks for major bleeding and all-cause death. The time-extended target population showed similar results. Outcome model-based prediction facilitates estimating the average treatment effects of a drug in different target populations when treatment and outcome data are unreliable or unavailable. The predicted effects may inform payers' coverage decisions for patients, especially shortly after a drug's launch when observational data are scarce.

Risk for Bleeding-Related Hospitalizations During Use of Amiodarone With Apixaban or Rivaroxaban in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation : A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Amiodarone, the most effective antiarrhythmic drug in atrial fibrillation, inhibits apixaban and rivaroxaban elimination, thus possibly increasing anticoagulant-related risk for bleeding. OBJECTIVE: For patients receiving apixaban or rivaroxaban, to compare risk for bleeding-related hospitalizations during treatment with amiodarone versus flecainide or sotalol, antiarrhythmic drugs that do not inhibit these anticoagulants' elimination. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: U.S. Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older. PATIENTS: Patients with atrial fibrillation began anticoagulant use between 1 January 2012 and 30 November 2018 and subsequently initiated treatment with study antiarrhythmic drugs. MEASUREMENTS: Time to event for bleeding-related hospitalizations (primary outcome) and ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, and death with or without recent (past 30 days) evidence of bleeding (secondary outcomes), adjusted with propensity score overlap weighting. RESULTS: There were 91 590 patients (mean age, 76.3 years; 52.5% female) initiating use of study anticoagulants and antiarrhythmic drugs, 54 977 with amiodarone and 36 613 with flecainide or sotalol. Risk for bleeding-related hospitalizations increased with amiodarone use (rate difference [RD], 17.5 events [95% CI, 12.0 to 23.0 events] per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 1.44 [CI, 1.27 to 1.63]). Incidence of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism did not increase (RD, -2.1 events [CI, -4.7 to 0.4 events] per 1000 person-years; HR, 0.80 [CI, 0.62 to 1.03]). The risk for death with recent evidence of bleeding (RD, 9.1 events [CI, 5.8 to 12.3 events] per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.66 [CI, 1.35 to 2.03]) was greater than that for other deaths (RD, 5.6 events [CI, 0.5 to 10.6 events] per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.15 [CI, 1.00 to 1.31]) (HR comparison: P = 0.003). The increased incidence of bleeding-related hospitalizations for rivaroxaban (RD, 28.0 events [CI, 18.4 to 37.6 events] per 1000 person-years) was greater than that for apixaban (RD, 9.1 events [CI, 2.8 to 15.3 events] per 1000 person-years) (P = 0.001). LIMITATION: Possible residual confounding. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective cohort study, patients aged 65 years or older with atrial fibrillation treated with amiodarone during apixaban or rivaroxaban use had greater risk for bleeding-related hospitalizations than those treated with flecainide or sotalol. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Cost-Effectiveness of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVES: The emergence of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has revolutionized the prevention of stroke related to nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Several DOACs are available on the market, while the cost-effectiveness comparison among DOACs and vitamin K antagonist (warfarin) in NVAF management in Hong Kong market remains scarce. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of DOACs and warfarin from a Hong Kong public institutional perspective to inform formulary listing decisions. METHODS: A previously developed Markov model was adapted to simulate the lifetime disease progression of a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients. Net monetary costs, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were computed for the following competing alternatives: warfarin, apixaban (5 mg twice daily), dabigatran (110 mg or 150 mg twice daily), and rivaroxaban (20 mg once daily). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to address study uncertainties. RESULTS: In base-case results, all DOACs were associated with greater QALYs improvements and lower costs than warfarin. Rivaroxaban, apixaban, dabigatran 150 mg, dabigatran 110 mg, and warfarin resulted in net costs US dollar (USD) 8088, USD 8240, USD 8566, USD 8653, and USD 16 363 and net QALY 5.87, 6.017, 6.022, 5.98, and 5.829, respectively. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probabilities of warfarin, rivaroxaban 20 mg, dabigatran 110 mg, dabigatran 150 mg, and apixaban 5 mg being cost-effective of 2000 iterations were 0%, 0%, 29.4%, 33.2%, and 37.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Apixaban was the most cost-effective option compared with other DOACs and warfarin in the management of NVAF; this conclusion is consistent under all the tested uncertainty scenarios.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Oral Anticoagulants by Dementia Status in Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Importance: The development of an optimal stroke prevention strategy, including the use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy, is particularly important for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are living with dementia, a condition that increases the risk of adverse outcomes. However, data on the role of dementia in the safety and effectiveness of OACs are limited. Objective: To assess the comparative safety and effectiveness of specific OACs by dementia status among older patients with AF. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective comparative effectiveness study used 1:1 propensity score matching among 1 160 462 patients 65 years or older with AF. Data were obtained from the Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (January 1, 2013, to June 30, 2021), IBM MarketScan Research Database (January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020), and Medicare claims databases maintained by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (inpatient, outpatient, and pharmacy; January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017). Data analysis was performed from September 1, 2021, to May 24, 2022. Exposures: Apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin. Main Outcomes and Measures: Composite end point of ischemic stroke or major bleeding events over the 6-month period after OAC initiation, pooled across databases using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Among 1 160 462 patients with AF, the mean (SD) age was 77.4 (7.2) years; 50.2% were male, 80.5% were White, and 7.9% had dementia. Three comparative new-user cohorts were established: warfarin vs apixaban (501 990 patients; mean [SD] age, 78.1 [7.4] years; 50.2% female), dabigatran vs apixaban (126 718 patients; mean [SD] age, 76.5 [7.1] years; 52.0% male), and rivaroxaban vs apixaban (531 754 patients; mean [SD] age, 76.9 [7.2] years; 50.2% male). Among patients with dementia, compared with apixaban users, a higher rate of the composite end point was observed in warfarin users (95.7 events per 1000 person-years [PYs] vs 64.2 events per 1000 PYs; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7), dabigatran users (84.5 events per 1000 PYs vs 54.9 events per 1000 PYs; aHR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-2.0), and rivaroxaban users (87.4 events per 1000 PYs vs 68.5 events per 1000 PYs; aHR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5). In all 3 comparisons, the magnitude of the benefits associated with apixaban was similar regardless of dementia diagnosis on the HR scale but differed substantially on the rate difference (RD) scale. The adjusted RD of the composite outcome per 1000 PYs for warfarin vs apixaban users was 29.8 (95% CI, 18.4-41.1) events in patients with dementia vs 16.0 (95% CI, 13.6-18.4) events in patients without dementia. The corresponding adjusted RD estimates of the composite outcome were 29.6 (95% CI, 11.6-47.6) events per 1000 PYs in patients with dementia vs 5.8 (95% CI, 1.1-10.4) events per 1000 PYs in patients without dementia for dabigatran vs apixaban users and 20.5 (95% CI, 9.9-31.1) events per 1000 PYs in patients with dementia vs 15.9 (95% CI, 11.4-20.3) events per 1000 PYs in patients without dementia for rivaroxaban vs apixaban users. The pattern was more distinct for major bleeding than for ischemic stroke. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness study, apixaban was associated with lower rates of major bleeding and ischemic stroke compared with other OACs. The increased absolute risks associated with other OACs compared with apixaban were greater among patients with dementia than those without dementia, particularly for major bleeding. These findings support the use of apixaban for anticoagulation therapy in patients living with dementia who have AF.

Integrated Machine Learning Decision Tree Model for Risk Evaluation in Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation When Taking Different Doses of Dabigatran.

The new generation of nonvitamin K antagonists are broadly applied for stroke prevention due to their notable efficacy and safety. Our study aimed to develop a suggestive utilization of dabigatran through an integrated machine learning (ML) decision-tree model. Participants taking different doses of dabigatran in the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy trial were included in our analysis and defined as the 110 mg and 150 mg groups. The proposed scheme integrated ML methods, namely naive Bayes, random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), which were used to identify the essential variables for predicting vascular events in the 110 mg group and bleeding in the 150 mg group. RF (0.764 for 110 mg; 0.747 for 150 mg) and XGBoost (0.708 for 110 mg; 0.761 for 150 mg) had better area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values than logistic regression (benchmark model; 0.683 for 110 mg; 0.739 for 150 mg). We then selected the top ten important variables as internal nodes of the CART decision tree. The two best CART models with ten important variables output tree-shaped rules for predicting vascular events in the 110 mg group and bleeding in the 150 mg group. Our model can be used to provide more visualized and interpretable suggestive rules to clinicians managing NVAF patients who are taking dabigatran.

Integrating Real-World Evidence in Economic Evaluation of Oral Anticoagulants for Stroke Prevention in Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation in a Developing Country.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the cost effectiveness of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) compared with warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in Thailand where suboptimal anticoagulation control is common. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A hypothetical cohort of 65-year-old patients with NVAF and their disease progression was simulated in the Markov model. The following anticoagulant agents were used: warfarin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban. Warfarin with high, intermediate, and low time in therapeutic ranges (TTR) was used as the three different reference treatments. Baseline clinical events were obtained from a recently published real-world study in Thailand. A lifetime horizon was utilized in this model, and all analyses were performed from societal and healthcare perspectives. The results were reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2021 US dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Apixaban was a cost-effective intervention compared with warfarin with low and intermediate TTR groups. In the low TTR group, the ICERs were $779 and $816 per QALY gained from the societal and healthcare perspectives, respectively, and in the intermediate TTR group, the ICERs were $2038 and $3159 per QALY gained from the societal and healthcare perspectives, respectively. Both ICERs were below the accepted willingness-to-pay threshold ($4806) in the context of Thailand's healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: In a developing country where suboptimal anticoagulation control is common, apixaban was the cost-effective alternative to warfarin for patients with both low and intermediate TTR control.

Economic Evaluation of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Compared to Warfarin for Venous Thromboembolism in Thailand: A Cost-Utility Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been used for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in Thailand. However, they have not been listed in the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM). A cost-effectiveness analysis is needed to aid policymakers in deciding whether DOACs should be listed in the NLEM. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of DOACs for patients with VTE in Thailand. METHODS: A cohort-based state transition model was constructed from a societal perspective with a lifetime horizon. All available DOACs, including apixaban, rivaroxaban, edoxaban, and dabigatran, were compared with warfarin. A 6-month cycle length was used to capture all costs and health outcomes. The model consisted of nine health states, including VTE on treatment, VTE off treatment, recurrent VTE, clinically relevant non-major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, intracranial bleeding, post-intracranial bleeding, chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, and death. All inputs were based on a comprehensive literature review. The model outcomes included total cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) with a 3% annual discount rate. A fully incremental cost-effectiveness analysis and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained were calculated at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of THB 160,000/QALY ($5003). The robustness of the findings was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: All DOACs were associated with a decreased risk of VTE recurrence and intracranial hemorrhage. In the base-case analysis, apixaban could increase 0.16 QALYs compared with warfarin. An ICER for apixaban was 269,809 Thai baht (THB)/QALY ($8437/QALY). Rivaroxaban had a better QALY than warfarin at 0.09 QALYs with an ICER of 757,363 THB/QALY ($23,682/QALY). Edoxaban and dabigatran could also increase by 0.10 QALYs with an ICER of 709,945 THB ($22,200) and 707,145 THB ($22,122)/QALY, respectively. Our probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that warfarin had a 99.8% possibility of being cost-effective, while apixaban had a 0.2% possibility of being cost-effective at the current WTP. Other DOACs had no possibility of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: All DOACs were not cost-effective for VTE treatment at the current WTP in Thailand. Apixaban is likely to be the best option among DOACs.

Healthcare Resource Utilization and Costs of Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin Among Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Patients with Diabetes in a US Population.

INTRODUCTION: The healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs of oral anticoagulant-naïve patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and diabetes initiated on rivaroxaban or warfarin in the United States (US) has not been previously evaluated. METHODS: This retrospective study used data from the Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (1 January, 2012 to 30 September, 2021) to evaluate the HRU and costs of adult patients with NVAF and diabetes newly initiated on rivaroxaban or warfarin (on or after January 2013). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to adjust for confounding between cohorts. HRU and costs (USD 2021) were assessed per patient-year (PPY) post-treatment initiation. Weighted cohorts were compared using rate ratios (RR) from Poisson regression models, odds ratios (OR) from logistic regression models, and cost differences; 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p values were generated using non-parametric bootstrap procedures. RESULTS: After IPTW, 17,881 and 19,274 patients initiated on rivaroxaban and warfarin were included, respectively (mean age: 73 years; 40% female). During 12 months of follow-up, the rivaroxaban cohort had lower all-cause HRU PPY across all components, including lower rates of inpatient stays (RR: 0.84, 95% CI 0.81, 0.88), outpatient visits (RR: 0.67, 95% CI 0.66, 0.68), and 30 day hospital readmission (OR: 0.75, 95% CI 0.66, 0.83; all p < 0.001) compared to the warfarin cohort. Moreover, rivaroxaban was associated with medical cost savings PPY (mean cost difference: - $9306, 95% CI - $11,769, - $6607), which compensated for higher pharmacy costs relative to warfarin (mean cost difference: $5518, 95% CI $5193, $5839), resulting in significantly lower all-cause total healthcare costs for rivaroxaban versus warfarin (mean cost difference: - $3788, 95% CI - $6258, - $1035; all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Among NVAF patients with diabetes in a real-world US setting, rivaroxaban was associated with lower healthcare costs compared to warfarin.

Effectiveness and Safety of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Among Patients with Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation and Multimorbidity.

INTRODUCTION: In the USA, there is a steady rise of atrial fibrillation due to the aging population with increased morbidity. This study evaluated the risk of stroke/systemic embolism (S/SE) and major bleeding (MB) among elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and multimorbidity prescribed direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). METHODS: Using the CMS Medicare database, a retrospective observational study of adult patients with NVAF and multimorbidity who initiated apixaban, dabigatran, or rivaroxaban from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017 was conducted. High multimorbidity was classified as having ≥ 6 comorbidities. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the hazard ratios of S/SE and MB among three 1:1 propensity score matched DOAC cohorts. All-cause healthcare costs were estimated using generalized linear models. RESULTS: Overall 36% of the NVAF study population had high multimorbidity, forming three propensity score matched (PSM) cohorts: 12,511 apixaban-dabigatran, 60,287 apixaban-rivaroxaban, and 12,567 dabigatran-rivaroxaban patients. Apixaban was associated with a lower risk of stroke/SE and MB when compared with dabigatran and rivaroxaban. Dabigatran had a lower risk of stroke/SE and a similar risk of MB when compared with rivaroxaban. Compared to rivaroxaban, apixaban patients incurred lower all-cause healthcare costs, and dabigatran patients incurred similar all-cause healthcare costs. Compared to dabigatran, apixaban patients incurred similar all-cause healthcare costs. CONCLUSION: Patients with NVAF and ≥ 6 comorbid conditions had significantly different risks for stroke/SE and MB when comparing DOACs to DOACs, and different healthcare expenses. This study's results may be useful for evaluating the risk-benefit ratio of DOAC use in patients with NVAF and multimorbidity.

Oral Anticoagulants for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations.

OBJECTIVES: Several studies have evaluated the economic evaluation of a group of medications known as novel oral anticoagulant drugs (NOACs) in recent years. The aim of this study is to review and systematically analyze the cost-utility studies results of warfarin compared with other NOAC drugs in atrial fibrillation patients. METHODS: A systematic review was performed to identify all studies evaluating the NOAC medications in comparison with warfarin. For this purpose, PubMed, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus were searched from 2013 to 2022. Articles were independently screened with inclusion criteria, and full texts were reviewed. First, the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist was used to evaluate the quality of the articles. Then, the costs and outcomes of the studies were analyzed, and findings were appraised critically. RESULTS: A total of 84 costs-per-quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) cases were extracted from the studies in which the share of rivaroxaban, edoxaban, apixaban, and dabigatran were 31%, 13%, 29%, and 27%, respectively. The median cost per QALY of rivaroxaban, edoxaban, apixaban, and dabigatran was 21 910$/QALY, 22 096$/QALY, 17 765$/QALY, and 24 161$/QALY, respectively. Subgroup analysis based on perspective showed that dabigatran had the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and edoxaban had the lowest ICER value. Edoxaban and apixaban had the highest and the lowest cost per QALY from an insurance perspective, respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite the differences and variations in the economic evaluation studies of NOAC drugs, these drugs have shown acceptable cost-effectiveness in developed and developing countries. Among NOAC drugs, apixaban has the lowest ICER and the highest cost-effectiveness.

Assessment of DOAC in GEriatrics (Adage Study): Rivaroxaban/Apixaban Concentrations and Thrombin Generation Profiles in NVAF Very Elderly Patients.

BACKGROUND: Although a growing number of very elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), multiple conditions, and polypharmacy receive direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), few studies specifically investigated both apixaban/rivaroxaban pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in such patients. AIMS: To investigate: (1) DOAC concentration-time profiles; (2) thrombin generation (TG); and (3) clinical outcomes 6 months after inclusion in very elderly AF in-patients receiving rivaroxaban or apixaban. METHODS: Adage-NCT02464488 was an academic prospective exploratory multicenter study, enrolling AF in-patients aged ≥80 years, receiving DOAC for at least 4 days. Each patient had one to five blood samples at different time points over 20 days. DOAC concentrations were determined using chromogenic assays. TG was investigated using ST-Genesia (STG-ThromboScreen, STG-DrugScreen). RESULTS: We included 215 patients (women 71.1%, mean age: 87 ± 4 years), 104 rivaroxaban and 111 apixaban, and 79.5% receiving reduced-dose regimen. We observed important inter-individual variabilities (coefficient of variation) whatever the regimen, at C max [49-46%] and C min [75-61%] in 15 mg rivaroxaban and 2.5 mg apixaban patients, respectively. The dose regimen was associated with C max and C min plasma concentrations in apixaban (p = 0.0058 and p = 0.0222, respectively), but not in rivaroxaban samples (multivariate analysis). Moreover, substantial variability of thrombin peak height (STG-ThromboScreen) was noticed at a given plasma concentration for both xabans, suggesting an impact of the underlying coagulation status on TG in elderly in-patients. After 6-month follow-up, major bleeding/thromboembolic event/death rates were 6.7%/1.0%/17.3% in rivaroxaban and 5.4%/3.6%/18.9% in apixaban patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our study provides original data in very elderly patients receiving DOAC in a real-life setting, showing great inter-individual variability in plasma concentrations and TG parameters. Further research is needed to understand the potential clinical impact of these findings.

Delaying clinical events among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants: Insights from the ARISTOPHANES study.

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulants (OACs) mitigate stroke and systemic embolism (SE) risk in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) patients but can increase the risk of major bleeding (MB). This study analyzed the gains in event-free time for these outcomes among OAC treatment options represented in the ARISTOPHANES study. METHODS: This sub-analysis consisted of NVAF patients who initiated warfarin, apixaban, dabigatran, or rivaroxaban from 01JAN2013-30SEP2015, with data pooled from Medicare and 4 US commercial claims databases. Propensity score matching was conducted between non-vitamin K antagonist OAC (NOAC) and warfarin cohorts in each database and results were pooled. Laplace regression was used to evaluate the delay in time to stroke/SE and MB events between NOACs and warfarin and between NOACs after the first 12-months of follow-up. RESULTS: The population included 466,991 patients (167,413 warfarin; 108,852 apixaban; 37,724 dabigatran; and 153,002 rivaroxaban). Event-free time gain (95% confidence interval) for apixaban versus warfarin was 101 days (78- 124) for stroke/SE and 116 (103- 130) days for MB. The gain in event-free time for dabigatran versus warfarin was 45 days (3- 87) for stroke/SE and 92 (68- 116) days for MB. The gain in event-free time for rivaroxaban versus warfarin was 63 days (42- 84) for stroke/SE but event-free time decreased by 18 (-31-6) days for MB. CONCLUSIONS: Over 12 months after initiation, apixaban and dabigatran conferred progressive increases in event free time for stroke/SE and MB vs warfarin, whereas rivaroxaban conferred an increase in stroke/SE-free time but a loss in MB-free time vs warfarin.

Trends in utilization, reimbursement, and price for DOACs and warfarin in the US Medicaid population from 2000 to 2020.

The use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) is widely increasing in the United States (US). Warfarin has been the conventional anticoagulant used in the past few decades, but it has been gradually replaced by DOACs. The objective of the study was to analyze trends in utilization, reimbursement, and price for those anticoagulants in the US Medicaid population. Retrospective data analysis was conducted using the National Summary Files for the Medicaid State Drug Utilization Data. Study drugs included dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, edoxaban and warfarin. The study assessed secular trends of utilization, reimbursement, and per-prescription price. The data was collected from the first quarter of 2000 through to the second quarter of 2020 restricted for outpatient prescriptions only. During the 21-year study period, a substantial rise in total expenditures on warfarin and DOACs was observed from $144 million in 2000 to $694 million in 2020. Moreover, the utilization of DOACs has increased significantly since the first approval of Xarelto in 2010 from 1079 in 2011 to 1.5 million in 2019. The per-prescription price of DOACs increased from an average of $200 in 2011 to $407 in 2020. Conversely, the total number of prescriptions of Warfarin and branded Coumadin decreased from 2.4 million to 1.4 million and from 3.9 million to less than a million, respectively. The present study demonstrated a change in the trends of US expenditure and utilization for warfarin and DOACs with DOACs representing the majority of market share of both spending per prescription and reimbursement.