Disparities among ethnic groups in mortality and outcomes among adults with MASLD: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the leading cause of chronic liver disease and 10%-20% occurs in lean individuals. There is little data in the literature regarding outcomes in an ethnically-diverse patient populations with MASLD. Thus, we aim to investigate the natural history and ethnic disparities of MASLD patients in a diverse population, and stratified by body mass index categories. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective multicenter study on patients with MASLD at the Banner Health System from 2012 to 2022. Main outcomes included mortality and incidence of cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus (DM), liver-related events (LREs), and cancer. We used competing risk and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis for outcome modelling. RESULTS: A total of 51 452 (cross-sectional cohort) and 37 027 (longitudinal cohort) patients were identified with 9.6% lean. The cohort was 63.33% European ancestry, 27.96% Hispanic ancestry, 3.45% African ancestry, and 2.31% Native American/Alaskan ancestry. Median follow-up was 45.8 months. After adjusting for confounders, compared to European individuals, Hispanic and Native American/Alaskan patients had higher prevalence of cirrhosis and DM, and individuals of Hispanic, African, and Native American/Alaskan ancestry had higher mortality and incidence of LREs and DM. Lean patients had higher mortality and incidence of LREs compared with non-lean patients. CONCLUSION: Native American/Alaskan, Hispanic, and African patients had higher mortality and incidence of LREs and DM compared with European patients. Further studies to explore the underlying disparities and intervention to prevent LREs in lean patients, particularly several ethnic groups, may improve clinical outcomes.

Predictive value of a novel sub-item mortality risk score derived from the Norfolk Quality of Life in Diabetic Neuropathy questionnaire in Romanian participants with diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: To evaluate whether the Norfolk Quality of Life in Diabetic Neuropathy (QOL-DN) questionnaire and the novel Norfolk Mortality Risk Score (NMRS), comprising Norfolk QOL-DN items, can identify 4-year mortality risk in individuals with diabetes. METHODS: Of 21,756 adults completing Norfolk QOL-DN in 2012, two groups of surviving and deceased patients were identified in 2016: Group 1, from a county capital and Group 2, from six small cities. NMRS was calculated in Group 1 using the 2012 scores of Norfolk QOL-DN items that discriminate between deceased and surviving participants (p < 0.05) and was subsequently applied to Group 2. RESULTS: 763 participants were included (Group 1: 481 [450 surviving, 31 deceased]; Group 2: 282 [218 surviving, 64 deceased]). Total Norfolk QOL-DN score was significantly higher (worse) in deceased participants than in survivors in both groups (p ≤ 0.008). Optimal cut-off for the 25-item NMRS was 11.5 in Group 1. Individuals in Groups 1 and 2 with NMRS≥ 11.5 in 2012 had a 4-year mortality risk ratio of 4.24 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.65-10.84) and 2.33 (95 % CI: 1.33-4.07), respectively, corresponding to 8 and 16 additional deaths/100 persons/4 years (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Norfolk QOL-DN and NMRS can identify individuals with diabetes at risk of 4-year mortality.

Excess years of life lost to COVID-19 and other causes of death by sex, neighbourhood deprivation, and region in England and Wales during 2020: A registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Deaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL.

CXCL10 levels at hospital admission predict COVID-19 outcome: hierarchical assessment of 53 putative inflammatory biomarkers in an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Host inflammation contributes to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 infection causes mild or life-threatening disease. Tools are needed for early risk assessment. METHODS: We studied in 111 COVID-19 patients prospectively followed at a single reference Hospital fifty-three potential biomarkers including alarmins, cytokines, adipocytokines and growth factors, humoral innate immune and neuroendocrine molecules and regulators of iron metabolism. Biomarkers at hospital admission together with age, degree of hypoxia, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP) and creatinine were analysed within a data-driven approach to classify patients with respect to survival and ICU outcomes. Classification and regression tree (CART) models were used to identify prognostic biomarkers. RESULTS: Among the fifty-three potential biomarkers, the classification tree analysis selected CXCL10 at hospital admission, in combination with NLR and time from onset, as the best predictor of ICU transfer (AUC [95% CI] = 0.8374 [0.6233-0.8435]), while it was selected alone to predict death (AUC [95% CI] = 0.7334 [0.7547-0.9201]). CXCL10 concentration abated in COVID-19 survivors after healing and discharge from the hospital. CONCLUSIONS: CXCL10 results from a data-driven analysis, that accounts for presence of confounding factors, as the most robust predictive biomarker of patient outcome in COVID-19.

Institutional mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition, touted as occurring in Ghana, requires research that tracks the changing patterns of diseases in order to capture the trend and improve healthcare delivery. This study examines national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018. METHODS: Institutional mortality data and cause of death from 2014-2018 were sourced from the Ghana Health Service's District Health Information Management System. The latter collates healthcare service data routinely from government and non-governmental health institutions in Ghana yearly. The institutional mortality rate was estimated using guidelines from the Ghana Health Service. Percent change in mortality was examined for 2014 and 2018. In addition, cause of death data were available for 2017 and 2018. The World Health Organisation's 11th International Classification for Diseases (ICD-11) was used to group the cause of death. RESULTS: Institutional mortality decreased by 7% nationally over the study period. However, four out of ten regions (Greater Accra, Volta, Upper East, and Upper West) recorded increases in institutional mortality. The Upper East (17%) and Volta regions (13%) recorded the highest increase. Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were the leading cause of death in 2017 (25%) and 2018 (20%). This was followed by certain infectious and parasitic diseases (15% for both years) and respiratory infections (10% in 2017 and 13% in 2018). Among the NCDs, hypertension was the leading cause of death with 2,243 and 2,472 cases in 2017 and 2018. Other (non-ischemic) heart diseases and diabetes were the second and third leading NCDs. Septicaemia, tuberculosis and pneumonia were the predominant infectious diseases. Regional variations existed in the cause of death. NCDs showed more urban-region bias while infectious diseases presented more rural-region bias. CONCLUSIONS: This study examined national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana. Ghana recorded a decrease in institutional mortality throughout the study. NCDs and infections were the leading causes of death, giving a double-burden of diseases. There is a need to enhance efforts towards healthcare and health promotion programmes for NCDs and infectious diseases at facility and community levels as outlined in the 2020 National Health Policy of Ghana.

The sex-related discrepancy in laboratory parameters of severe COVID-19 patients with diabetes: A retrospective cohort study.

AIM: This study aimed at providing evidence to consider sex differences in interpretations of laboratory parameters of severe COVID-19 patients with diabetes. METHODS: For 118 diabetic patients, laboratory measurements and clinical outcomes were compared between males and females. This study also compared inflammatory ratios obtained from combinations of six inflammatory markers between the two groups. The risk factors for mortality were identified through logistic regression. RESULTS: Males were 54 (45.8%) and females were 64 (54.2%). Males showed a significant increase in ALT (P = 0.003), CRP (P = 0.03), mean platelet volume (MPV)-to-lymphocyte ratio (P = 0.001), and C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (P = 0.044), whereas females had a significant increase in lymphocytes (P < 0.005) and MPV (P = 0.01). In all participants, multivariate analysis illustrated that older age, male sex, increased serum total bilirubin, and decreased PO2 were significant independent predictors of mortality (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In severe COVID-19 patients with diabetes, there were significant sex differences in many laboratory characteristics with a higher risk of mortality among males.

Mortality and socio-economic outcomes among patients hospitalized for stroke and diabetes in the US: a recent analysis from the National Inpatient Sample.

The prevalence and incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) are increasing worldwide. We aim to assess mortality and socio-economic outcomes among patients hospitalized for stroke and diabetes in the US and evaluate their recent trends. We examined: in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LoS), and overall hospital charges in diabetic patients over 18 years old who were hospitalized with a stroke from 2005 to 2014, included in the National Inpatient Sample. In those patients, the mean (SD) age slightly decreased from 70 (13) years to 69 (13) years (p-trend < 0.001). Interestingly, although incident cases of stroke amongst DM patients increased from 17.4 to 20.0 /100,000 US adults (p-trend < 0.001), age-adjusted mortality for those with hemorrhagic strokes decreased from 24.3% to 19.6%, and also decreased from 3.23% to 2.48% for those with ischemic strokes (p-trend < 0.01 for both), but remained unchanged in TIAs patients. As expected, the average total charges per hospital stay almost doubled over the ten-year period, increasing from 15 970 to 31 018 USD/stay (adjusted for inflation). Nonetheless, median (IQR) LoS slightly decreased from 4 (2-6) to 3 (2-6) days (p-trend < 0.001). In total, our data show that, from 2005 to 2014, the incidence of stroke among the diabetes patient population are gradually increasing, in-hospital mortality is steadily decreasing, along with average LoS. Admission costs were up almost twofold during the same period.

The doubled burden of diabetic bone disease: hip fracture and post-hip fracture mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with diabetes have an increased risk of osteoporosis and shorter life expectancy. Hip fracture (HF) is the most serious consequence of osteoporosis and is associated with increased mortality risk. We aimed to assess the association of antidiabetic medications with HF and the post-hip fracture mortality risk among diabetic patients ≥50 years. DESIGN: In this nationwide case-control study 53 992 HF cases and 112 144 age-, sex- and region-matched non-hip fracture controls were analyzed. A cohort of hip-fractured diabetic patients were followed-up for an all-cause mortality. METHODS: We defined three groups of diabetic patients based on a prescription of antidiabetic medications: group 1 treated with insulin monotherapy (G1DM), group 2 (G2DM) treated with blood glucose-lowering drugs (BGLD) only, group 3 on a combined BGLD and insulin therapy (G3DM). We applied logistic regression and Cox regression. RESULTS: We identified 2757 G1DM patients, 15 310 G2DM patients, 3775 G3DM patients and 144 294 patients without any antidiabetic treatment. All three groups of diabetic patients had increased odds of HF compared to controls. G1DM patients aged 50-64 years (aOR: 4.80, 95% CI: 3.22-7.17) and G3DM patients (aOR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.02-1.88) showed the highest HF odds, whereas G2DM patients had 18% decrease in HF odds than their non-diabetic controls (aOR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.69-0.99). All diabetic patients had increased post-hip fracture mortality risk compared to non-diabetic controls. The highest mortality hazard was observed in G1DM patients, being greater for women than men (HR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.55-1.89 and HR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.27-1.64, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Antidiabetic medications increase the probability of HF. Diabetic patients, who sustained HF have a higher mortality risk than non-diabetic patients.

Spotlight on Cardiovascular Scoring Systems in Covid-19: Severity Correlations in Real-world Setting.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: the current understanding of the interplay between cardiovascular (CV) risk and Covid-19 is grossly inadequate. CV risk-prediction models are used to identify and treat high risk populations and to communicate risk effectively. These tools are unexplored in Covid-19. The main objective is to evaluate the association between CV scoring systems and chest X ray (CXR) examination (in terms of severity of lung involvement) in 50 Italian Covid-19 patients. Results only the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) was applicable to all patients. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score (ASCVD) was applicable to half. 62% of patients were classified as high risk according to FRS and 41% according to ASCVD. Patients who died had all a higher FRS compared to survivors. They were all hypertensive. FRS≥30 patients had a 9.7 higher probability of dying compared to patients with a lower FRS. We found a strong correlation between CXR severity and FRS and ASCVD (P < 0.001). High CV risk patients had consolidations more frequently. CXR severity was significantly associated with hypertension and diabetes. 71% of hypertensive patients' CXR and 88% of diabetic patients' CXR had consolidations. Patients with diabetes or hypertension had 8 times greater risk of having consolidations. CONCLUSIONS: High CV risk correlates with more severe CXR pattern and death. Diabetes and hypertension are associated with more severe CXR. FRS offers more predictive utility and fits best to our cohort. These findings may have implications for clinical practice and for the identification of high-risk groups to be targeted for the vaccine precedence.

Impact of the supplemental nutritional assistance program on diet-related disease morbidity among older adults.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the health effects of the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) and the differential impact of SNAP across race/ethnicity among older adults. DATA SOURCE/STUDY SETTING: 2008-2013 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, a nationally representative population-based complex sample survey. STUDY DESIGN: A difference-in-regression-discontinuity (DRD) design is used to assess the impacts of SNAP on diet-related disease morbidity. The primary outcomes were the prevalence rate of hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and cancer. We also conducted supplemental analysis to examine potential co-occurring trends in medical utilization. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data are publicly available. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the full sample, SNAP eligibility was associated with a significant decline in diabetes (-3.71 percentage points [pp]; P < .05). Non-Hispanic (NH) White respondents reported trends similar to the full sample; however, NH Black respondents reported large declines in hypertension (-13.95 pp; P < .01) and Hispanic respondents reported declines in the prevalence of angina (-6.94 pp; P < .05) and stroke (-4.48 pp; P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program eligibility was associated with the reduced prevalence of diet-related disease among older adults. These observed declines in the prevalence of diet-related disease do not appear to be attributable to increased medical visits or spending on medical services and prescriptions.

The Effect of Diabetes on the Cognitive Trajectory of Older Adults in Mexico and the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To study the impact of diabetes on the long-term cognitive trajectories of older adults in 2 countries with different socioeconomic and health settings, and to determine whether this relationship differs by cognitive domains. This study uses Mexico and the United States to confirm if patterns hold in both populations, as these countries have similar diabetes prevalence but different socioeconomic conditions and diabetes-related mortality. METHODS: Two nationally representative cohorts of adults aged 50 years or older are used: the Mexican Health and Aging Study for Mexico and the Health and Retirement Study for the United States, with sample sizes of 18,810 and 26,244 individuals, respectively, followed up for a period of 14 years. The outcome is cognition measured as a total composite score and by domain (memory and nonmemory). Mixed-effect linear models are used to test the effect of diabetes on cognition at 65 years old and over time in each country. RESULTS: Diabetes is associated with lower cognition and nonmemory scores at baseline and over time in both countries. In Mexico, diabetes only predicts lower memory scores over time, whereas in the United States it only predicts lower memory scores at baseline. Women have higher total cognition and memory scores than men in both studies. The magnitude of the effect of diabetes on cognition is similar in both countries. DISCUSSION: Despite the overall lower cognition in Mexico and different socioeconomic characteristics, the impact of diabetes on cognitive decline and the main risk and protective factors for poor cognition are similar in both countries.

Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy in metropolitan cities in India among the population aged 20 years or more, and their variation by sex, age and BMI. METHODS: A Markov simulation model was adopted to estimate age-, sex- and BMI-specific lifetime risk of developing diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy. The main data inputs used were as follows: age-, sex- and BMI-specific incidence rates of diabetes in urban India taken from the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (2010-2018); age-, sex- and urban-specific rates of mortality from period lifetables reported by the Government of India (2014); and prevalence of diabetes from the Indian Council for Medical Research INdia DIABetes study (2008-2015). RESULTS: Lifetime risk (95% CI) of diabetes in 20-year-old men and women was 55.5 (51.6, 59.7)% and 64.6 (60.0, 69.5)%, respectively. Women generally had a higher lifetime risk across the lifespan. Remaining lifetime risk (95% CI) declined with age to 37.7 (30.1, 46.7)% at age 60 years among women and 27.5 (23.1, 32.4)% in men. Lifetime risk (95% CI) was highest among obese Indians: 86.0 (76.6, 91.5)% among 20-year-old women and 86.9 (75.4, 93.8)% among men. We identified considerably higher diabetes-free life expectancy at lower levels of BMI. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India is alarming across the spectrum of weight and rises dramatically with higher BMI. Prevention of diabetes among metropolitan Indians of all ages is an urgent national priority, particularly given the rapid increase in urban obesogenic environments across the country. Graphical abstract.

Hypertension, Diabetes and Obesity, Major Risk Factors for Death in Patients with COVID-19 in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Mexico has reported high death and case fatality rates due to COVID-19. Several comorbidities have been related to mortality in COVID-19, as hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive lung disease and chronic kidney disease. AIMS: To describe the main clinical characteristics of COVID-19 in the major social security institution in Mexico, as well as the contribution of chronic comorbidities and the population attributable fraction related to them. METHODS: Data for all patients with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 in the institutional database was included for analysis. Demographic information, the presence of pneumonia and whether the patient was hospitalized or treated at home as an outpatient as well as comorbidities were analyzed. Case fatality rate was estimated for different groups. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals from a logistic regression model were estimated, as well as the population attributable fraction. RESULTS: By November 13, 2020, 323,671 subjects with COVID-19 infection have been identified. Case fatality rate is higher in males (20.2%), than in females (13.0%), and increases with age. Case fatality rate increased with the presence of obesity, hypertension and/or diabetes. Age and sex were major independent risk factors for mortality, as well as the presence of pneumonia, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, immunosuppression, and end-stage kidney disease. The population attributable fraction due to obesity in outpatients was 16.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Major cardiovascular risk factors and other comorbidities increase the risk of dying in patients with COVID-19. Identification of populations with high fatality in COVID-19, provides insight to deal with this pandemic by health services in Mexico.

Epidemiology of major lower extremity amputations in individuals with diabetes in Austria, 2014-2017: A retrospective analysis of health insurance database.

AIMS: To describe the incidence, mortality, and trend of major lower extremity amputations (LEA) and to assess risk factors of all-cause mortality after major LEA in individuals with diabetes. METHODS: Procedure codes of major LEA were extracted from the Austrian Health Insurance database (N = 507,180) during 2014-2017 to estimate crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population. Short- (30-day, 90-day) and long-term (1-year, 5-year) all-cause mortality after major LEA was estimated from the date of amputation till the date of death. RESULTS: The age-standardized rate of major LEA was 6.44 with an insignificant annual change of 3% (p = 0.825) from 2014 to 2017. Cumulative 30-day mortality was 13.5%, 90-day 22.0%, 1-year 34.4%, and 5-year 66.7%. Age, male sex, above-knee amputation, Charlson index, and heart failure were significantly associated with both short- and long-term mortality. Cancer, dementia, heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, and renal disease were associated with long-term mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of major LEA in individuals with diabetes remained stable during 2014-2017 in Austria. Short- and long-term mortality rates were considerably high after major LEA. Old age, male sex, above-knee amputations, and Charlson Index were significant predictors of both short- and long-term mortality and comorbidities were significant predictors of long-term mortality only.

Projected impact of diabetes on the Costa Rican healthcare system.

INTRODUCTION: Costa Rica, similar to many other Latin American countries is undergoing population aging at a fast pace. As a result of the epidemiological transition, the prevalence of diabetes has increased. This condition impacts not only individual lives, but also the healthcare system. The goal of this study is to examine the expected impact of diabetes, in terms of economic costs on the healthcare system and lives lost. We will also project how long it will take for the number of elderly individuals who are diabetic to double in Costa Rica. METHODS: CRELES (Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study), a three-wave nationally representative longitudinal study, is the main source of data for this research (n = 2827). The projected impact of diabetes was estimated in three ways: length of time for the number of elderly individuals with diabetes to double; projected economic costs of diabetes-related hospitalizations and outpatient care; and years of life lost to diabetes at age 60. Data analyses and estimations used multiple regression models, longitudinal regression models, and Lee-Carter stochastic population projections. RESULTS: Doubling time of the diabetic elderly population is projected to occur in 13 calendar years. This will cause increases in hospitalization and outpatient consultation costs. The impact of diabetes on life expectancy at age 60 around the year 2035 is estimated to lead to a loss of about 7 months of life. The rapid pace at which the absolute number of elderly people with diabetes will double is projected to result in a negative economic impact on the healthcare system. Lives will also be lost due to diabetes. CONCLUSION: Population aging will inevitably lead to an increasing number of elderly individuals, who are at greater risk for diabetes due to their lifelong exposure to risk factors. Actions to increase the quality of life of diabetic elderly are warranted. Decreasing the burden of diabetes on elderly populations and the Costa Rican healthcare system are necessary to impact the quantity and quality of life of incoming cohorts. Health promotion and prevention strategies that reduce diabetes risk factors are needed to improve the health of elderly populations.

The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru. METHODS: Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 69 from any and from each of the following NCDs: cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated the contribution of each NCD to the change in the unconditional probability of dying from any of these NCDs between 2006 and 2016. RESULTS: The overall unconditional probability of dying improved for men (21.4%) and women (23.3%). Cancer accounted for 10.9% in men and 13.7% in women of the overall reduction; cardiovascular diseases also contributed substantially: 11.3% in men) and 9.8% in women. Consistently in men and women and across regions, diabetes moved in the opposite direction of the overall reduction in the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD. Diabetes contributed a rise in the unconditional probability of 3.6% in men and 2.1% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Although the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD has decreased, diabetes would prevent Peru from meeting international targets. Policies are needed to prevent diabetes and to strengthen healthcare to avoid diabetes-related complications and delay mortality.

NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4.

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, and to promote mental health and wellbeing. We used data on cause-specific mortality to characterise the risk and trends in NCD mortality in each country and evaluate combinations of reductions in NCD causes of death that can achieve SDG target 3.4. Among NCDs, ischaemic heart disease is responsible for the highest risk of premature death in more than half of all countries for women, and more than three-quarters for men. However, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers are associated with a similar risk, and in many countries, a higher risk of premature death than ischaemic heart disease. Although premature mortality from NCDs is declining in most countries, for most the pace of change is too slow to achieve SDG target 3.4. To investigate the options available to each country for achieving SDG target 3.4, we considered different scenarios, each representing a combination of fast (annual rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries) and average (median of all countries) declines in risk of premature death from NCDs. Pathways analysis shows that every country has options for achieving SDG target 3.4. No country could achieve the target by addressing a single disease. In at least half the countries, achieving the target requires improvements in the rate of decline in at least five causes for women and in at least seven causes for men to the same rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries. Tobacco and alcohol control and effective health-system interventions-including hypertension and diabetes treatment; primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk individuals; low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilators for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; treatment of acute cardiovascular diseases, diabetes complications, and exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and effective cancer screening and treatment-will reduce NCD causes of death necessary to achieve SDG target 3.4 in most countries.

Análisis de la mortalidad por tuberculosis, en Costa Rica / Tuberculosis Mortality Analysis in Costa Rica

Resumen Justificación: La mortalidad por tuberculosis reúne características para ser estudiada con un enfoque de causa básica y de causa múltiple, debido a que compite frecuentemente con otras patologías como causa básica de muerte. Los objetivos de este estudio son caracterizar las defunciones por tuberculosis en ambas formas, utilizando las variables: tiempo, lugar y persona; cuantificar la concordancia entre las defunciones por tuberculosis registradas por el Programa Institucional, y el certificado de defunción, e identificar la contribución de esta enfermedad en la mortalidad con un enfoque multicausal, en Costa Rica, durante el periodo 2016-2019. Materiales y métodos: Estudio descriptivo. La población de estudio correspondió a todas las defunciones por tuberculosis y con tuberculosis registradas en el libro de registro del programa de de la Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social, ocurridas en 2016 - 2019. Por medio del expediente de salud se depuraron las defunciones registradas y se categorizaron de acuerdo con la Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades 10 en defunciones por tuberculosis (A15 al A19), tuberculosis / virus de inmunodeficiencia humana (A15 al A19-B24 ), tuberculosis / diabetes mellitus (A15 al A19-E10,E11), tuberculosis / cáncer (A15 al A19-C34,22,18) y tuberculosis / otras (A15 al A19- J44,J45). En el certificado de defunción se revisó la secuencia informada de las causas de muerte y la causa contribuyente, para identificar la tuberculosis como causa básica o múltiple. Se agruparon los resultados por edad y se calculó: porcentajes, tasas, proporción de concordancia observada, proporción de concordancia esperada y el índice de Kappa (va de 0 a 1, y el 1 representa la máxima concordancia). Resultados: Durante el periodo de estudio (4 años), se registró un total de 113 defunciones, lo que corresponde a una tasa de mortalidad de 0,57 / 100 000 hab.; de éstas, el 73% (83) correspondió a personas del sexo masculino y el 27 %, al sexo femenino. El mayor número de defunciones ocurrió principalmente en el grupo de mayores de 65 años, tanto para los hombres como para las mujeres. La proporción de concordancia observada correspondió a un 0,77 %, y la proporción de concordancia esperada a un 26%. Al ser la proporción de concordancia observada mayor que la esperada, y con un índice de Kappa de 0,70, concluimos que la concordancia existente es considerable y se atribuye más a ser causal que al azar. El análisis de mortalidad de tubercolosis por causa múltiple no mostró cambios en la tasa de mortalidad, tomando en cuenta este evento como causa básica de defunción o como causa múltiple. Conclusiones: Con base en los resultados del estudio, se evidencia que existe una concordancia considerable entre el registro de las defunciones por tuberculosis anotadas en el libro del programa institucional y el certificado de defunción.

Abstract Background: Tuberculosis mortality has the characteristics to be studied as a basic and multiple cause of death, because it can be compared with other pathologies as a basic cause of death. The goals of this study are to characterize deaths from tuberculosis including basic and multiple cause of death using time, place and person as variables, to measure the concordance of deaths from tuberculosis recorded in the Institutional Program Record Book and death certificate; and to identify the contribution of this disease in mortality with a multicausal approach, in Costa Rica during the period 2016-2019. Methods: Descriptive study. The study population corresponded to all deaths from tuberculosis and tuberculosis recorded in the Program Registration Book of the Social Security Costa Rican entity, that occurred in the period between 2016 and 2019. Using the health files, the deaths registered in the Program Registration Book were purified and categorized according to International Classification of Diseases 10 in deaths due to tuberculosis (A15 through A19), tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus (A15 through A19-B24), tuberculosis/diabetes mellitus (A15 through A19-E10, E11), tuberculosis/cancer (A15 through A19 -C34,22,18) and tuberculosis/others (A15 through A19-J44, J45). In the death certificate, the reported sequence of the causes of death and the contributing cause to identify tuberculosis as a basic or multiple cause were reviewed. Percentages, rates, observed concordance ratio, expected concordance ratio and Kappa index were calculated (value from 0 to 1, 1 representing the maximum concordance). Results: During the study period (4 years), a total of 113 deaths were registered, with a mortality rate of 0.57/100,000 inhabitants. Of these, 73% (83) corresponded to the male sex and 27% (30) to the female sex. The highest number of deaths occurred mainly in the group of people over 65 years, for both men and women. The observed concordance ratio corresponded to 0.77% and the expected concordance ratio to 26%. Since the observed concordance ratio is greater than expected concordance ratio and when obtaining a Kappa index of 0.70, it is concluded that the existing concordance is attributed more causally than by chance. The multiple cause tuberculosis mortality analysis did not show changes in the mortality rate, taking this event into account only as a basic cause of death or as a multiple cause. Conclusions: The study made it possible to show that there is a considerable concordance between the register of deaths from tuberculosis recorded in the register of the Institutional Program and the death certificate.

Equity impacts of interventions to increase physical activity among older adults: a quantitative health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Behavioural interventions may increase social inequalities in health. This study aimed to project the equity impact of physical activity interventions that have differential effectiveness across education groups on the long-term health inequalities by education and gender among older adults in Germany. METHODS: We created six intervention scenarios targeting the elderly population: Scenarios #1-#4 applied realistic intervention effects that varied by education (low, medium high). Under scenario #5, all older adults adapted the physical activity pattern of those with a high education. Under scenario #6, all increased their physical activity level to the recommended 300 min weekly. The number of incident ischemic heart disease, stroke and diabetes cases as well as deaths from all causes under each of these six intervention scenarios was simulated for males and females over a 10-year projection period using the DYNAMO-HIA tool. Results were compared against a reference-scenario with unchanged physical activity. RESULTS: Under scenarios #1-#4, approximately 3589-5829 incident disease cases and 6248-10,320 deaths could be avoided among males over a 10-year projection period, as well as 4381-7163 disease cases and 6914-12,605 deaths among females. The highest reduction for males would be achieved under scenario #4, under which the intervention is most effective for those with a high education level. Scenario #4 realizes 2.7 and 2.4% of the prevented disease cases and deaths observed under scenario #6, while increasing inequalities between education groups. In females, the highest reduction would be achieved under scenario #3, under which the intervention is most effective amongst those with low levels of education. This scenario realizes 2.7 and 2.9% of the prevented disease cases and deaths under scenario #6, while decreasing inequalities between education groups. Under scenario #5, approximately 31,687 incident disease cases and 59,068 deaths could be prevented among males over a 10-year projection period, as well as 59,173 incident disease cases and 121,689 deaths among females. This translates to 14.4 and 22.2% of the prevented diseases cases among males and females under scenario #6, and 13.7 and 27.7% of the prevented deaths under scenario #6. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows how the overall population health impact varies depending on how the intervention-induced physical activity change differs across education groups. For decision-makers, both the assessment of health impacts overall as well as within a population is relevant as interventions with the greatest population health gain might be accompanied by an unintended increase in health inequalities.