Evaluating the Public Health and Health Economic Impacts of Baloxavir Marboxil and Oseltamivir for Influenza Pandemic Control in China: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Using a Linked Dynamic Transmission-Economic Evaluation Model.

BACKGROUND: Pandemic influenza poses a recurring threat to public health. Antiviral drugs are vital in combating influenza pandemics. Baloxavir marboxil (BXM) is a novel agent that provides clinical and public health benefits in influenza treatment. METHODS: We constructed a linked dynamic transmission-economic evaluation model combining a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model and a decision tree model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding BXM to oseltamivir in China's influenza pandemic scenario. The cost-effectiveness was evaluated for the general population from the Chinese healthcare system perspective, although the users of BXM and oseltamivir were influenza-infected persons. The SEIR model simulated the transmission dynamics, dividing the population into four compartments: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered, while the decision tree model assessed disease severity and costs. We utilized data from clinical trials and observational studies in the literature to parameterize the models. Costs were based on 2021 CN¥ and not discounted due to a short time-frame of one year in the model. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: The integrated model demonstrated that adding BXM to treatment choices reduced the cumulative incidence of infection from 49.49% to 43.26% and increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 0.00021 per person compared with oseltamivir alone in the base-case scenario. The intervention also amounted to a positive net monetary benefit of CN¥77.85 per person at the willingness to pay of CN¥80,976 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of these findings, with consistent results across varied key parameters and assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Adding BXM to treatment choices instead of only treating with oseltamivir for influenza pandemic control in China appears to be cost-effective compared with oseltamivir alone. The dual-agent strategy not only enhances population health outcomes and conserves resources, but also mitigates influenza transmission and alleviates healthcare burden.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of reduced viral transmission with baloxavir marboxil versus oseltamivir or no treatment for seasonal and pandemic influenza management in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Baloxavir marboxil is an oral, single-dose, cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor that reduces the duration of influenza symptoms and rapidly stops viral shedding. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model to inform a cost-effectiveness model (CEM) of baloxavir versus oseltamivir or no antiviral treatment in the UK. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The SEIR model estimated the attack rates among otherwise healthy and high-risk individuals in seasonal and pandemic settings. The CEM assumed that a proportion of infected patients would receive antiviral treatment. Results were reported at the population level (per 10,000 at risk of infection). RESULTS: The SEIR model estimated greater reductions in infections with baloxavir. In a seasonal setting, baloxavir provided incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of £1884 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus oseltamivir and a dominant cost-effectiveness position versus no antiviral treatment in the total population; ICERs of £2574/QALY versus oseltamivir and £128/QALY versus no antiviral treatment were seen in the high-risk population. Baloxavir was also cost-effective versus oseltamivir or no antiviral treatment and reduced population-level health system occupancy concerns during a pandemic. CONCLUSION: Baloxavir treatment resulted in the fewest influenza cases and was cost-effective versus oseltamivir or no antiviral treatment from a UK National Health Service perspective.

Baloxavir marboxil ('baloxavir') is a prescription medicine for people who become ill with influenza (or 'the flu') that can reduce how long flu symptoms last and the likelihood of complications from the flu that may require going to the hospital. Baloxavir can also reduce the amount and duration of virus shed by infected individuals thus potentially slow or stop the flu from spreading to healthy people. We studied differences in reducing predicted flu infections between baloxavir and another flu treatment, known as oseltamivir, or no flu treatment at all. Treatment with baloxavir resulted in fewer flu infections in the UK population than oseltamivir or no treatment. We then studied how these differences might affect costs between baloxavir and oseltamivir or no treatment at a population level in the UK. Overall, in the majority of scenarios explored in the model, baloxavir was cost-effective as an antiviral treatment for people with the flu in the UK.

Baloxavir vs oseltamivir: reduced utilization and costs in influenza.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether baloxavir use is associated with lower health care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs for secondary influenza complications post treatment compared with oseltamivir. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Patients filling a prescription for baloxavir or oseltamivir within 48 hours following an influenza-related outpatient visit were identified in the 2018-2019 influenza season from the US Truven MarketScan Research Databases and propensity matched 1:2 (baloxavir:oseltamivir). Outcomes were assessed 15 and 30 days after antiviral treatment and included all-cause, all respiratory-related, and select respiratory-related (influenza, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or infection) HCRU and costs. RESULTS: The study included 5080 baloxavir-treated and 10,160 matched oseltamivir-treated patients. All-cause emergency department (ED) visits and inpatient hospitalizations were lower in baloxavir-treated patients, with a statistically significant difference in the percentage hospitalized at 30 days (0.3% vs 0.5%; P = .04). ED visits for all or select respiratory-related conditions were significantly reduced with baloxavir (P < .01 for all comparisons). Mean per-patient cost savings at day 30 for all-cause, all respiratory-related, and select respiratory-related conditions were $79, $50, and $51, respectively, despite slightly higher prescription costs for baloxavir. In high-risk patients (baloxavir: n = 1958; oseltamivir: n = 3949), the incidence of ED visits was significantly lower for all respiratory-related and select respiratory-related conditions (P < .01); cost savings with baloxavir in the high-risk cohort were substantially greater than in the overall cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of patients with influenza with single-dose baloxavir was generally associated with lower HCRU and costs post treatment compared with oseltamivir, particularly in high-risk patients.

Comparison of Intra-Familial Transmission of Influenza Virus From Index Patients Treated With Baloxavir Marboxil or Oseltamivir Using an Influenza Transmission Model and a Health Insurance Claims Database.

BACKGROUND: Influenza affects approximately a billion people globally, including > 10 million Japanese individuals every year. Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir [BXM]; a selective cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor) is approved for influenza treatment in Japan. We compared the incidence of intra-familial transmission of influenza between BXM and oseltamivir (OTV) treatments using a simulation model. METHODS: Using the JMDC Claims Database, we identified index case (IC) as the first family member diagnosed with influenza during the 2018-19 influenza season, and classified the families into BXM or OTV group per the drug dispensed to ICs. Using a novel influenza intra-familial infection model, we simulated the duration of influenza infection in ICs based on agent-specific virus shedding periods. Intra-familial infections were defined as non-IC family members infected during the agent-specific viral shedding period in ICs. The virus incubation periods in the non-IC family members were considered to exclude secondary infections from potentially external exposure. The primary endpoint was proportion of families with intra-familial infections. For between-group comparisons, we used a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: The median proportion of families with intra-familial transmission was 9.57% and 19.35% in the BXM (N = 84 672) and OTV (N = 62 004) groups, respectively. The multivariate odds ratio of 1.73 (2.5th-97.5th percentiles, 1.68-1.77) indicated a substantially higher incidence of intra-familial infections in the OTV group versus the BXM group. Subgroup analyses by ICs' age category, virus type, and month of onset revealed similar trends favoring BXM. CONCLUSIONS: BXM treatment of ICs may contribute to a greater reduction in intra-familial influenza transmission than OTV treatment.

Comparison of the incidence of bleeding between baloxavir marboxil and other anti-influenza drugs among outpatients with influenza virus infection: A retrospective cohort study using an employment-based health insurance claims database in Japan.

PURPOSE: Alerts for bleeding events are included in the Japanese package inserts of some anti-influenza drugs, including baloxavir marboxil and oseltamivir. However, there are few reports on the incidence of bleeding events during treatment with anti-influenza drugs. This large-scale quantitative assessment compared the incidence of bleeding events in influenza patients treated with baloxavir and other anti-influenza drugs and in untreated patients. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used a large-scale Japanese employment-based health insurance claims database provided by JMDC Inc. and included outpatients diagnosed with influenza between October 1, 2018 and April 11, 2019. Bleeding events were identified by International Classification of Diseases 10th revision codes. Incidences were compared between patients treated with baloxavir or neuraminidase inhibitors and untreated patients. Odds ratios were calculated after exact matching to adjust for potential confounders. RESULTS: Among 529 201 influenza episodes, 30 964 were untreated and 498 237 were treated with anti-influenza drugs: baloxavir, 207 630; oseltamivir, 143 722; zanamivir, 28 208; peramivir, 5304; laninamivir, 113 373. Crude incidence proportions for total bleeding up to 20 days after influenza diagnosis were similar among treated groups, with a slightly higher value for peramivir (0.21% vs. 0.19% for baloxavir, oseltamivir, zanamivir, and laninamivir), and 0.30% in untreated patients. After exact matching, the incidence of bleeding for baloxavir was similar to that for other anti-influenza treatments (odds ratios for baloxavir were 0.90-0.99 compared to other therapies). CONCLUSIONS: Based on real-world observation using a large-scale claims database, a similar incidence of bleeding events was observed in recipients of the different anti-influenza drugs.

Influenza polymerase inhibitor resistance: Assessment of the current state of the art - A report of the isirv Antiviral group.

It is more than 20 years since the neuraminidase inhibitors, oseltamivir and zanamivir were approved for the treatment and prevention of influenza. Guidelines for global surveillance and methods for evaluating resistance were established initially by the Neuraminidase Inhibitor Susceptibility Network (NISN), which merged 10 years ago with the International Society for influenza and other Respiratory Virus Diseases (isirv) to become the isirv-Antiviral Group (isirv-AVG). With the ongoing development of new influenza polymerase inhibitors and recent approval of baloxavir marboxil, the isirv-AVG held a closed meeting in August 2019 to discuss the impact of resistance to these inhibitors. Following this meeting and review of the current literature, this article is intended to summarize current knowledge regarding the clinical impact of resistance to polymerase inhibitors and approaches for surveillance and methods for laboratory evaluation of resistance, both in vitro and in animal models. We highlight limitations and gaps in current knowledge and suggest some strategies for addressing these gaps, including the need for additional clinical studies of influenza antiviral drug combinations. Lessons learned from influenza resistance monitoring may also be helpful for establishing future drug susceptibility surveillance and testing for SARS-CoV-2.

Cost-effectiveness of baloxavir marboxil compared with laninamivir for the treatment of influenza in patients at high risk for complications in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is a single-dose antiviral which was previously found to be a cost-effective alternative to laninamivir in otherwise healthy adults in Japan. This study aimed at investigating the cost-effectiveness of baloxavir versus laninamivir in patients with influenza at high risk for complications. METHODS: A decision tree was utilized to estimate costs and health gains associated with the use of antivirals. A lifetime horizon was applied to capture the long-term impact of influenza complications, and other events with associated costs and health outcomes were accounted for one influenza season. The study population was stratified into three categories: adolescents and non-elderly adults with high-risk conditions (HRC), elderly without other HRC, and elderly with other HRC. The cost-effectiveness was assessed from a public healthcare payer's perspective. The duration of influenza symptoms, probabilities of complications and probabilities of adverse events were obtained from a clinical trial and network meta-analysis. The costs of influenza and adverse events management were derived from the JammNet claims database. Utility values were informed by the clinical trial data and literature. Sensitivity analyses were also performed. RESULTS: The baloxavir strategy was associated with higher costs (+¥144) and higher quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in adults with HRC, elderly without HRC and elderly with HRC (+0.00078, +0.00183 and +0.00350 respectively). The overall incremental cost/QALY for baloxavir versus laninamivir was ¥68,855, which was below the willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥5 million/QALY gained. Key drivers of the model results were the probability of pneumonia and bronchitis. The probability of baloxavir being cost-effective was 72%. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that influenza treatment with baloxavir is cost-effective compared with laninamivir in the adult high-risk population in Japan.

Comparison of Household Transmission of Influenza Virus From Index Patients Treated With Baloxavir Marboxil or Neuraminidase Inhibitors: A Health Insurance Claims Database Study.

BACKGROUND: Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is expected to reduce influenza transmission by rapid reduction of viral load. The incidence of household transmission was compared between index patients (IPs) treated with baloxavir and those treated with neuraminidase inhibitors. METHODS: Using a Japanese claims database, the first family members with influenza diagnosis during the 2018-2019 influenza season were identified as IPs, and the diagnosis date was designated day 1. According to the anti-influenza drug dispensed to the IP, their families were classified into the oral baloxavir group and 3 controls: oral oseltamivir group (a primary control), inhaled zanamivir group, and inhaled laninamivir group. A household transmission was defined as influenza diagnosed for any non-IP family members during days 3-8. The incidence of household transmission was compared between groups using a logistic regression model adjusting backgrounds of IPs. RESULTS: The proportion of families with household transmission was 17.98% (15 226 of 84 672) in the baloxavir group and 24.16% (14 983 of 62 004) in the oseltamivir group. The covariate-adjusted odds ratio (oseltamivir/baloxavir) was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05-1.12), which indicated significantly lower incidence in the baloxavir group. The adjusted odds ratios (controls/baloxavir) against zanamivir and laninamivir were 0.93 (95% CI, .89-.97) and 0.99 (95% CI, .96-1.02), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Baloxavir may contribute to reduction in household transmission compared with oseltamivir. In comparison between baloxavir and inhalants, a similar reduction was not shown and it might be due to unmeasured confounding by administration route differences.

Comprehensive assessment of amino acid substitutions in the trimeric RNA polymerase complex of influenza A virus detected in clinical trials of baloxavir marboxil.

BACKGROUND: Baloxavir marboxil (BXM) is an approved drug that selectively targets cap-dependent endonuclease on PA subunit in the RNA polymerase complex of influenza A and B viruses. Amino acid substitutions at position 38 in the PA subunit were identified as a major pathway for reduced susceptibility to baloxavir acid (BXA), the active form of BXM. Additionally, substitutions found at positions E23, A37, and E199 in the PA subunit impact BXA susceptibility by less than 10-fold. METHODS: We comprehensively evaluated the impact of novel amino acid substitutions identified in PA, PB1, and PB2 subunits in BXM clinical trials and influenza sequence databases by means of drug susceptibility and replicative capacity. RESULTS: PA/I38N in A(H1N1)pdm09 and PA/I38R in A(H3N2) were newly identified as treatment-emergent substitutions in the CAPSTONE-2 study. The I38N substitution conferred reduced susceptibility by 24-fold, whereas replicative capacity of the I38N-substituted virus was impaired compared with the wild-type. The I38R-substituted virus was not viable in cell culture. All other mutations assessed in this extensive study did not significantly affect BXA susceptibility (< 2.4-fold change). CONCLUSION: These results provide additional information on the impact of amino acid substitutions in the trimeric viral polymerase complex to BXA susceptibility and will further support influenza surveillance.

Comparison of Hospitalization Incidence in Influenza Outpatients Treated With Baloxavir Marboxil or Neuraminidase Inhibitors: A Health Insurance Claims Database Study.

BACKGROUND: Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is a single-dose, oral antiinfluenza drug with a novel mechanism of action. We compared the incidence of hospitalization in patients treated with baloxavir vs neuraminidase inhibitors. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational, cohort study, we used real-world patient data extracted from a Japanese health insurance claims database. The enrollment period was 1 October 2018 to 17 April 2019. On day 1, eligible patients (N = 339 007) received baloxavir, oseltamivir, zanamivir, or laninamivir. Baseline characteristics were standardized using the inverse probability of treatment weighting method. The primary end point was the incidence of hospitalization (days 2-14). Secondary end points included antibacterial use, secondary pneumonia, and additional antiinfluenza drug use. RESULTS: Compared with the baloxavir group, the incidence of hospitalization was greater in the oseltamivir group (risk ratio [RR] and 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41 [1.00-2.00]; risk difference [RD] and 95% CI, 0.06 [.01-.12]) and zanamivir group (RR, 1.85 [1.23-2.78]; RD, 0.11 [.02-.20]). Oseltamivir-treated patients were less likely to require antibacterials than baloxavir-treated patients (RR, 0.87 [.82-.91]). However, oseltamivir-treated patients were more likely to be hospitalized with antibacterials (RR, 1.70 [1.21-2.38]) or antibacterial injection (RR, 1.67 [1.17-2.38]) than baloxavir-treated patients (post hoc analysis). Compared with baloxavir-treated patients, additional antiinfluenza drug use was greater in oseltamivir-, zanamivir-, and laninamivir-treated patients (RR, 1.51 [1.05-2.18], 2.84 [2.04-3.96], and 1.68 [1.35-2.10], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Baloxavir is an efficacious antiinfluenza treatment that may reduce hospitalization compared with oseltamivir and zanamivir. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: University hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000038159).

Cost-effectiveness of baloxavir marboxil compared to laninamivir for the treatment of influenza in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is a new oral antiviral for influenza types A and B. OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of baloxavir versus laninamivir in otherwise healthy (OwH) adults in Japan. METHODS: A decision tree was utilized to describe the course of influenza and predict associated costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over one year by antiviral. Costs were valued from the public healthcare payer perspective, including influenza test, antiviral acquisition, other medications, physician visits, other outpatient costs associated with influenza or drug-related adverse events (DRAEs), and hospitalizations. Resource utilization and unit costs were obtained from the analysis of the JammNet claims database. Health state utilities were obtained from a clinical trial of baloxavir and previous models, and were driven by influenza symptoms, DRAEs, and complications caused by influenza. Sensitivity analyses were also performed. RESULTS: The total payer expenditure per patient for baloxavir versus laninamivir was ¥9383 versus ¥9132. The additional acquisition costs of baloxavir were partly offset by the DRAE costs avoided. Baloxavir showed a small gain in QALYs versus laninamivir and the incremental cost per QALY gained (¥2,231,260) was lower than the considered willingness-to-pay threshold (¥5,000,000/QALY). Key model drivers were the probability of DRAEs and the duration of symptoms. The probability of baloxavir being cost-effective was 64%. CONCLUSION: This cost-effectiveness study on baloxavir suggests that it would be cost-effective compared to laninamivir in OwH adults in Japan. Further studies are needed in different settings such as high-risk population and with different comparators.

Burden of influenza B virus infection and considerations for clinical management.

Influenza B viruses cause significant morbidity and mortality, particularly in children, but the awareness of their impact is often less than influenza A viruses partly due to their lack of pandemic potential. Here, we summarise the biology, epidemiology and disease burden of influenza B, and review existing data on available antivirals for its management. There has long been uncertainty surrounding the clinical efficacy of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) for influenza B treatment. In this article, we bring together the existing data on NAIs and discuss these alongside recent large randomised controlled trial data for the new polymerase inhibitor baloxavir in high-risk influenza B patients. Finally, we offer considerations for the clinical management of influenza B, with a focus on children and high-risk patients where disease burden is highest.

Assessment of the antidepressant activity of dothiepin and its metabolites by preclinical tests.

The affinities of dothiepin and its principal metabolites northiaden, dothiepin sulphoxide and northiaden sulphoxide for [3H]imipramine binding sites in the rat cortical homogenates, and for [3H]spiperone and [3H]serotonin receptor sites in preparations from the rat frontal cortex and hippocampus were studied. As inhibitors of [3H]imipramine binding, the strengths of the drugs are, in terms of their IC50 (concentration corresponding to 50% inhibition): dothiepin 2.8 X 10(-6) M, northiaden 5.0 X 10(-6) M, northiaden sulphoxide 4.0 X 10(-5) M and dothiepin sulphoxide 3.2 X 10(-5) M. The potencies of the drugs in inhibiting serotonergic binding followed a similar trend. Using frontal cortical tissue suspensions and [3H]spiperone, the IC50 values were determined to be: dothiepin 4.2 X 10(-6) M, northiaden 5.0 X 10(-6) M, northiaden sulphoxide 1.6 X 10(-4) M and dothiepin sulphoxide 1.6 X 10(-4) M; whereas in hippocampal suspensions and using [3H]serotonin, the IC50 values were 2.5 X 10(-6) M, northiaden 4.0 X 10(-5) M, dothiepin sulphoxide 2.5 X 10(-4) M and northiaden sulphoxide greater than 10(-3) M. The influence of the drugs on the uptake of [14C]serotonin into human platelets was also investigated. All had an inhibitory effect upon the uptake, the order of potency being dothiepin greater than northiaden greater than northiaden sulphoxide greater than dothiepin sulphoxide. Plots of 1/v versus 1/s showed that the inhibition was competitive for all four compounds.

A retrospective assessment of the long-term effects of dothiepin.

A hospital-based study reports the treatment with dothiepin hydrochloride (Prothiaden) of 237 depressed patients, some for over 2 years. Of the initial 237 patients a total of 84 patients had to be withdrawn from the study, over one third of these because of non-attendance. Only 26 (11.8%) of all patients failed to respond and 23 (9.7%) had to be withdrawn because of side effects, the commonest being dry mouth (6 patients) and drowsiness (4). The dosage required was between 75 and 225 mg/day with 75% of patients receiving between 125 and 150 mg/day. The majority of patients (75.2%) were well and off therapy by 9 months but a hard core of 30 patients (19.6%) required long-term therapy in excess of 2 years. The study showed dothiepin to be a well tolerated, safe and effective antidepressant with a special place in the treatment of chronic depressive states in inadequate personalities.

The Hamilton rating scale. An assessment bases on a dothiepin ("prothiaden") versus imipramine ("Tofranil") clinical trial.

The Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression is in common use, particularly in durg trials. The authors compared this scale with a system of psychiatric assessment and recording designed by M. Sim. They found that there was closer agreement with the full assessment of the Sim method than with the single diagnostic area for depression. This suggests that the Hamilton Scale for depression is more general than specific in its application.