Inequalities in Disability-Free and Disabling Multimorbid Life Expectancy in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand variations in multimorbidity severity over time, we estimate disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy (MMLE), comparing Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States (US). We also assess MMLE inequalities by sex and education. METHODS: Data come from the Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging (2005-2009), the Mexican Health and Aging Study (2012-2018), and the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2018). We apply an incidence-based multistate Markov approach to estimate disability-free and disabling MMLE and stratify models by sex and education to study within-country heterogeneity. Multimorbidity is defined as a count of 2 or more chronic diseases. Disability is defined using limitations in activities of daily living. RESULTS: Costa Ricans have the lowest MMLE, followed by Mexicans, then individuals from the US. Individuals from the US spend about twice as long with disability-free multimorbidity compared with individuals from Costa Rica or Mexico. Females generally have longer MMLE than males, with particularly stark differences in disabling MMLE. In the US, higher education was associated with longer disability-free MMLE and shorter disabling MMLE. We identified evidence for cumulative disadvantage in Mexico and the US, where sex differences in MMLE were larger among the lower educated. DISCUSSION: Substantial sex and educational inequalities in MMLE exist within and between these countries. Estimating disability-free and disabling MMLE reveals another layer of health inequality not captured when examining disability and multimorbidity separately. MMLE is a flexible population health measure that can be used to better understand the aging process across contexts.

[The gender paradox in health-impaired lifetime-end of a myth?] / Das Geschlechterparadoxon in der gesundheitlich beeinträchtigten Lebenszeit ­ Ende eines Mythos?

BACKGROUND: Women live longer than men, but they spend more life years with health-impairment. This article examines the extent to which this gender paradox can be explained by two factors: the "mortality effect," which results from the higher life expectancy of women, and "differential item functioning" (DIF), which refers to gender differences in reporting behavior. METHODS: Impaired life expectancy at age 50 is calculated for the health indicators general health, limitations, and chronic morbidity using the Sullivan method. Data on health prevalence are obtained from the 2012 survey "Gesundheit in Deutschland aktuell" (GEDA), data on mortality is taken from the Human Mortality Database. The gender difference in impaired life expectancy is decomposed into the mortality effect and the health effect. The latter is finally adjusted for DIF effects on the basis of vignettes from the 2004 SHARE survey. RESULTS: The gender paradox can be resolved not only partially but completely for all three health indicators considered by the mortality effect and DIF. After taking these two factors into account, the gender difference in impaired life expectancy reverses from higher values for women to higher values for men. DISCUSSION: The causes of the gender paradox are highly complex and the differences between women and men in total and impaired life expectancy are not necessarily going into contradictory directions. The extent of women's higher impaired life expectancy depends decisively on the underlying health indicator and is largely explained by the mortality effect.

Links Between Mortality and Socioeconomic Characteristics, Disease Burden, and Biological and Physical Functioning in the Aging Chinese Population.

OBJECTIVES: Determinants of mortality may depend on the time and place where they are examined. China provides an important context in which to study the determinants of mortality at older ages because of its unique social, economic, and epidemiological circumstances. This study uses a nationally representative sample of persons in China to determine how socioeconomic characteristics, early-life conditions, biological and physical functioning, and disease burden predict 4-year mortality after age 60. METHODS: We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. We employed a series of Cox proportional hazard models based on exact survival time to predict 4-year all-cause mortality between the 2011 baseline interview and the 2015 interview. RESULTS: We found that rural residence, poor physical functioning ability, uncontrolled hypertension, diabetes, cancer, a high level of systemic inflammation, and poor kidney functioning are strong predictors of mortality among older Chinese. DISCUSSION: The results show that the objectively measured indicators of physical functioning and biomarkers are independent and strong predictors of mortality risk after accounting for several additional self-reported health measures, confirming the value of incorporating biological and performance measurements in population health surveys to help understand health changes and aging processes that lead to mortality. This study also highlights the importance of social and historical context in the study of old-age mortality.

Association of Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease With County Health Disparities in New York State.

Importance: Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States, which imposes a considerable burden on individuals, families, and societies. The association between county-level health disparity and CLRD outcomes in New York state needs investigation. Objective: To evaluate the associations of CLRD outcomes with county-level health disparities in New York state. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study, CLRD age-adjusted hospitalization for 2016 and mortality rates from 2014 to 2016 were obtained from the New York state Community Health Indicator Reports provided by the New York state Department of Health. County Health Rankings were used to evaluate various health factors to provide a summary z score for each county representing the county health status and how that county ranks in the state. Data analysis was performed from November 2020 to March 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were age-adjusted hospitalization and mortality rates for CLRD. The z score was calculated from the County Health Rankings, which includes subindicators of health behaviors, clinical care, social and economic factors, and physical environment. Pearson r and linear regression models were estimated. Results: During the study, 60 335 discharges were documented as CLRD hospitalizations in 2016 and 20 612 people died from CLRD from 2014 to 2016 in New York state. After adjusting for age, the CLRD hospitalization rate was 27.6 per 10 000 population, and the mortality rate was 28.9 per 100 000 population. Among 62 counties, Bronx had the highest hospitalization rate (64.7 per 10 000 population) whereas Hamilton had the lowest hospitalization rate (6.6 per 10 000 population). Mortality rates ranged from 17.4 per 100 000 population in Kings to 62.9 per 100 000 population in Allegany. County Health Rankings indicated Nassau had the lowest z score (the healthiest), at -1.17, but Bronx had the highest z score (the least healthy), at 1.43, for overall health factors in 2018. An increase of 1 point in social and economic factors z score was associated with an increase of 17.6 hospitalizations per 10 000 population (ß = 17.61 [95% CI, 10.36 to 24.87]; P < .001). A 1-point increase in health behaviors z score was associated with an increase of 41.4 deaths per 100 000 population (ß = 41.42 [95% CI, 29.88 to 52.97]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, CLRD outcomes were significantly associated with county-level health disparities in New York state. These findings suggest that public health interventions and resources aimed at improving CLRD outcomes should be tailored and prioritized in health disadvantaged areas.

Institutional mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition, touted as occurring in Ghana, requires research that tracks the changing patterns of diseases in order to capture the trend and improve healthcare delivery. This study examines national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018. METHODS: Institutional mortality data and cause of death from 2014-2018 were sourced from the Ghana Health Service's District Health Information Management System. The latter collates healthcare service data routinely from government and non-governmental health institutions in Ghana yearly. The institutional mortality rate was estimated using guidelines from the Ghana Health Service. Percent change in mortality was examined for 2014 and 2018. In addition, cause of death data were available for 2017 and 2018. The World Health Organisation's 11th International Classification for Diseases (ICD-11) was used to group the cause of death. RESULTS: Institutional mortality decreased by 7% nationally over the study period. However, four out of ten regions (Greater Accra, Volta, Upper East, and Upper West) recorded increases in institutional mortality. The Upper East (17%) and Volta regions (13%) recorded the highest increase. Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were the leading cause of death in 2017 (25%) and 2018 (20%). This was followed by certain infectious and parasitic diseases (15% for both years) and respiratory infections (10% in 2017 and 13% in 2018). Among the NCDs, hypertension was the leading cause of death with 2,243 and 2,472 cases in 2017 and 2018. Other (non-ischemic) heart diseases and diabetes were the second and third leading NCDs. Septicaemia, tuberculosis and pneumonia were the predominant infectious diseases. Regional variations existed in the cause of death. NCDs showed more urban-region bias while infectious diseases presented more rural-region bias. CONCLUSIONS: This study examined national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana. Ghana recorded a decrease in institutional mortality throughout the study. NCDs and infections were the leading causes of death, giving a double-burden of diseases. There is a need to enhance efforts towards healthcare and health promotion programmes for NCDs and infectious diseases at facility and community levels as outlined in the 2020 National Health Policy of Ghana.

Epidemiology of Chronic Critical Illness in Japan: A Nationwide Inpatient Database Study.

OBJECTIVES: The epidemiology of chronic critical illness is not well known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, mortality, and costs associated with chronic critical illness in Japan. DESIGN: A nationwide inpatient administrative database study in Japan from April 2011 to March 2018. SETTING: Six hundred seventy-nine acute-care hospitals with ICU beds in Japan. PATIENTS: Adult patients who met our definition for chronic critical illness: one of six eligible clinical conditions (prolonged acute mechanical ventilation, tracheotomy, stroke, traumatic brain injury, sepsis, and severe wound) plus at least 8 consecutive days in an ICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 2,395,016 ICU admissions during the study period, 216,434 (9.0%) met the definition for chronic critical illness. The most common eligible condition was prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (73.9%), followed by sepsis (50.6%), tracheostomy (23.8%), and stroke (22.8%). Overall inhospital mortality was 28.6%. The overall age-specific population prevalence was 42.0 per 100,000. The age-specific population prevalence steadily increased with age, reaching 109.6 per 100,000 in persons aged greater than 85 years. With extrapolation to national estimates in Japan, there were 47,729 chronic critical illness cases in 2011 and the number remained similar at 46,494 cases in 2017. Hospitalization costs increased gradually, rising from U.S.$2.3 billion in 2011 to U.S.$2.7 billion in 2017. Inhospital mortality decreased from 30.6% to 28.2%, whereas the proportion of patients with total/severe dependence increased from 29.6% to 33.2% and the proportion of patients with decreased consciousness at discharge increased from 18.7% to 19.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Using a nationwide inpatient database in Japan, we found substantial clinical and economic burdens of chronic critical illness in Japan. Chronic critical illness was particularly common in elderly people. Although inhospital mortality of chronic critical illness patients continues to decrease, costs and patients with dependence for activities of daily living or decreased consciousness at discharge are increasing.

Neighborhood poverty and pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation outcomes: a CIBMTR analysis.

Social determinants of health, including poverty, contribute significantly to health outcomes in the United States; however, their impact on pediatric hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes is poorly understood. We aimed to identify the association between neighborhood poverty and HCT outcomes for pediatric allogeneic HCT recipients in the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database. We assembled 2 pediatric cohorts undergoing first allogeneic HCT from 2006 to 2015 at age ≤18 years, including 2053 children with malignant disease and 1696 children with nonmalignant disease. Neighborhood poverty exposure was defined a priori per the US Census definition as living in a high-poverty ZIP code (≥20% of persons below 100% federal poverty level) and used as the primary predictor in all analyses. Our primary outcome was overall survival (OS), defined as the time from HCT until death resulting from any cause. Secondary outcomes included relapse and transplantation-related mortality (TRM) in malignant disease, acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease, and infection in the first 100 days post-HCT. Among children undergoing transplantation for nonmalignant disease, neighborhood poverty was not associated with any HCT outcome. Among children undergoing transplantation for malignant disease, neighborhood poverty conferred an increased risk of TRM but was not associated with inferior OS or any other transplantation outcome. Among children with malignant disease, a key secondary finding was that children with Medicaid insurance experienced inferior OS and increased TRM compared with those with private insurance. These data suggest opportunities for future investigation of the effects of household-level poverty exposure on HCT outcomes in pediatric malignant disease to inform care delivery interventions.

Assessing the health status and mortality of older people over 65 with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Nearly half of people with HIV in the United States are 50 years or older, and this proportion is growing. Between 2012 and 2016, the largest percent increase in the prevalence rate of HIV was among people aged 65 and older, the eligibility age for Medicare coverage for individuals without a disability or other qualifying condition. Previous work suggests that older people with HIV may have higher rates of chronic conditions and develop them more rapidly than older people who do not have HIV. This study compared the health status of older people with HIV with the older US population not living with HIV by comparing: (1) mortality; (2) prevalence of certain conditions, and (3) incidence of these conditions with increasing age. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a sample of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older from the Medicare Master Beneficiary Summary File for the years 2011 to 2016, including 100% of individuals with HIV (N = 43,708), as well as a random 1% sample of individuals without diagnosed HIV (N = 1,029,518). We conducted a survival analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model to assess mortality and to determine the need to adjust for differential mortality in our analyses of the incidence of certain chronic conditions. These results showed that Medicare beneficiaries living with HIV have a significantly higher hazard of mortality compared to older people without diagnosed HIV (3.6 times the hazard). We examined the prevalence of these conditions using logistic regression analysis and found that people with HIV have a statistically significant higher odds of depression, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), osteoporosis, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, diabetes, chronic hepatitis, end-stage liver disease, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer. To look at the rate at which older people are diagnosed with conditions as they age, we used a Fine-Gray competing risk model and showed that for individuals without diagnosis of a given condition at age 65, the future incidence of that condition over the remaining study period was higher for people with HIV even after adjusting for differential hazard of mortality and for other demographic characteristics. Many of these results also varied by personal characteristics including Medicaid dual enrollment, sex, and race and ethnicity, as well as by condition. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing access to care and improving health outcomes for people with HIV is a critical goal of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy 2020. It is important for clinicians and policymakers to be aware that despite significant advances in the treatment and care of people with HIV, older people with HIV have a higher odds of having multiple chronic conditions at any point in time, a higher incidence of new diagnoses of these conditions over time, and a higher hazard of mortality than Medicare beneficiaries without HIV.

The effects of socioeconomic conditions on old-age mortality within shared disability pathways.

OBJECTIVE: How disability manifests itself in an individual is a highly complex process influenced by a wide range of individual and environmental factors. Its complexity makes the search for generalizable characteristics of the disablement process a challenging task. Consequentially, little is known about how the effect on other health outcomes such as life expectancy are modified after the onset of chronic ailments. In this paper we posit an alternative approach to generalize health trajectories of older people with disability and then analyze how socioeconomic conditions affect the longevity within these trajectory groups. METHODS: Individual level information about the first three successive onsets of chronic disability after age 50 is transformed into state-sequences. We extract trajectory groups based on onset time and the time spent in a certain state. Mortality hazards are then estimated with a Gompertz proportional hazards model to compare effects of different socioeconomic measures within the trajectory groups. RESULTS: Three distinct trajectory groups are identified, the mild (1), the early severe (2), and late severe (3) pathway. Estimates of the mortality analysis suggest that social inequalities in longevity are less pronounced after onset of old-age disability. We found a consistent survival prolonging effect for individuals who engage in daily activities (such as meeting with friends, walking) that ranged between 33.2% and 77.3%. The importance of other variables varies between trajectory groups. DISCUSSION: This study shows how health trajectories of individuals with disability can be generalized when information on the onset and severity of single conditions is available. Such an approach may help us to better predict health and care expenditures and help families and individuals with their personal care planning. The findings from the subsequent survival analysis suggest a substantial reduction of socioeconomic mortality differences after onset of old-age disability, which appears to be independent of its nature.

Predictors of Mortality in the Older Population: The Role of Polypharmacy and Other Medication and Chronic Disease-Related Factors.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy has been associated with increased mortality but the contribution of different medication-related factors to this is unknown. AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify demographic and medication-related predictors of mortality in the older population. Given the intrinsic link between polypharmacy and multimorbidity, the secondary aim was to examine if the medicines or underlying diseases predicted mortality. METHODS: Patients aged ≥ 65 years from an outpatient multimorbidity clinic were included. Medication-related factors included the medicines count, high-risk medicines, inappropriate medicines duplication, and potential drug-drug and drug-disease interactions. Logistic regression was used to identify mortality predictors within a year of clinic discharge from the outpatient clinic. Patients attend the clinic until medications and comorbidity management have been optimised, at which point they are discharged from the clinic, and their General Practitioner provides ongoing care. RESULTS: A total of 584 patients were included (median age 80.0 years) and 9.9% (n = 58) died within a year of discharge. Demographics, namely age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; p = 0.018) and being male (aOR 5.10; 95% CI 2.63-9.88; p < 0.001); chronic disease, namely heart failure (aOR 3.36; 95% CI 1.78-6.35; p < 0.001); and medication-related factors, namely the number of sedative and anticholinergic medicines (aOR 1.66; 95% CI 1.19-2.33; p = 0.003) predicted mortality in the study population. CONCLUSION: Whilst polypharmacy has been defined using the number of medicines in the literature, a combination of demographics, chronic disease and medications predicted mortality in our study. This provides guidance for the development of future tools and guidelines regarding the inclusion of key factors for identifying high-risk patients at risk of adverse health outcomes such as mortality.

Association of Diagnosis Coding With Differences in Risk-Adjusted Short-term Mortality Between Critical Access and Non-Critical Access Hospitals.

Importance: Critical access hospitals (CAHs) provide care to rural communities. Increasing mortality rates have been reported for CAHs relative to non-CAHs. Because Medicare reimburses CAHs at cost, CAHs may report fewer diagnoses than non-CAHs, which may affect risk-adjusted comparisons of outcomes. Objective: To assess serial differences in risk-adjusted mortality rates between CAHs and non-CAHs after accounting for differences in diagnosis coding. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional study of rural Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries admitted to US CAHs and non-CAHs for pneumonia, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arrhythmia, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and stroke from 2007 to 2017. The final date of follow-up was December 31, 2017. Exposure: Admission to a CAH vs non-CAH. Main Outcomes and Measures: Discharge diagnosis count including trends from 2010 to 2011 when Medicare expanded the allowable number of billing codes for hospitalizations, and combined in-hospital and 30-day postdischarge mortality adjusted for demographics, primary diagnosis, preexisting conditions, and with vs without further adjustment for Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) score to understand the contribution of in-hospital secondary diagnoses. Results: There were 4 094 720 hospitalizations (17% CAH) for 2 850 194 unique Medicare beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 76.3 [11.7] years; 55.5% women). Patients in CAHs were older (median age, 80.1 vs 76.8 years) and more likely to be female (58% vs 55%). In 2010, the adjusted mean discharge diagnosis count was 7.52 for CAHs vs 8.53 for non-CAHs (difference, -0.99 [95% CI, -1.08 to -0.90]; P < .001). In 2011, the CAH vs non-CAH difference in diagnoses coded increased (P < .001 for interaction between CAH and year) to 9.27 vs 12.23 (difference, -2.96 [95% CI, -3.19 to -2.73]; P < .001). Adjusted mortality rates from the model with HCC were 13.52% for CAHs vs 11.44% for non-CAHs (percentage point difference, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.74 to 2.42]; P < .001) in 2007 and increased to 15.97% vs 12.46% (difference, 3.52 [95% CI, 3.09 to 3.94]; P < .001) in 2017 (P < .001 for interaction). Adjusted mortality rates from the model without HCC were not significantly different between CAHs and non-CAHs in all years except 2007 (12.19% vs 11.74%; difference, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.12 to 0.79]; P = .008) and 2010 (12.71% vs 12.28%; difference, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.07 to 0.77]; P = .02). Conclusions and Relevance: For rural Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized from 2007 to 2017, CAHs submitted significantly fewer hospital diagnosis codes than non-CAHs, and short-term mortality rates adjusted for preexisting conditions but not in-hospital comorbidity measures were not significantly different by hospital type in most years. The findings suggest that short-term mortality outcomes at CAHs may not differ from those of non-CAHs after accounting for different coding practices for in-hospital comorbidities.

The healthiness and sustainability of national and global food based dietary guidelines: modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the health and environmental implications of adopting national food based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) at a national level and compared with global health and environmental targets. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: 85 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Population of 85 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A graded coding method was developed and used to extract quantitative recommendations from 85 FBDGs. The health and environmental impacts of these guidelines were assessed by using a comparative risk assessment of deaths from chronic diseases and a set of country specific environmental footprints for greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater use, cropland use, and fertiliser application. For comparison, the impacts of adopting the global dietary recommendations of the World Health Organization and the EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems were also analysed. Each guideline's health and sustainability implications were assessed by modelling its adoption at both the national level and globally, and comparing the impacts to global health and environmental targets, including the Action Agenda on Non-Communicable Diseases, the Paris Climate Agreement, the Aichi biodiversity targets related to land use, and the sustainable development goals and planetary boundaries related to freshwater use and fertiliser application. RESULTS: Adoption of national FBDGs was associated with reductions in premature mortality of 15% on average (95% uncertainty interval 13% to 16%) and mixed changes in environmental resource demand, including a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 13% on average (regional range -34% to 35%). When universally adopted globally, most of the national guidelines (83, 98%) were not compatible with at least one of the global health and environmental targets. About a third of the FBDGs (29, 34%) were incompatible with the agenda on non-communicable diseases, and most (57 to 74, 67% to 87%) were incompatible with the Paris Climate Agreement and other environmental targets. In comparison, adoption of the WHO recommendations was associated with similar health and environmental changes, whereas adoption of the EAT-Lancet recommendations was associated with 34% greater reductions in premature mortality, more than three times greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and general attainment of the global health and environmental targets. As an example, the FBDGs of the UK, US, and China were incompatible with the climate change, land use, freshwater, and nitrogen targets, and adopting guidelines in line with the EAT-Lancet recommendation could increase the number of avoided deaths from 78 000 (74 000 to 81 000) to 104 000 (96 000 to 112 000) in the UK, from 480 000 (445 000 to 516 000) to 585 000 (523 000 to 646 000) in the USA, and from 1 149 000 (1 095 000 to 1 204 000) to 1 802 000 (1 664 000 to 1 941 000) in China. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that national guidelines could be both healthier and more sustainable. Providing clearer advice on limiting in most contexts the consumption of animal source foods, in particular beef and dairy, was found to have the greatest potential for increasing the environmental sustainability of dietary guidelines, whereas increasing the intake of whole grains, fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and legumes, reducing the intake of red and processed meat, and highlighting the importance of attaining balanced energy intake and weight levels were associated with most of the additional health benefits. The health results were based on observational data and assuming a causal relation between dietary risk factors and health outcomes. The certainty of evidence for these relations is mostly graded as moderate in existing meta-analyses.

Factors Associated With County-Level Variation in Premature Mortality Due to Noncommunicable Chronic Disease in the United States, 1999-2017.

Importance: Progress against premature death due to noncommunicable chronic disease (NCD) has stagnated. In the United States, county-level variation in NCD premature mortality has widened, which has impeded progress toward mortality reduction for the World Health Organization (WHO) 25 × 25 target. Objectives: To estimate variations in county-level NCD premature mortality, to investigate factors associated with mortality, and to present the progress toward achieving the WHO 25 × 25 target by analyzing the trends in mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study focused on NCD premature mortality and its factors from 3109 counties using US mortality data for cause of death from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER databases and county-level characteristics data from multiple databases. Data were collected from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2017, and analyzed from April 1 through October 28, 2019. Exposures: County-level factors, including demographic composition, socioeconomic features, health care environment, and population health status. Main Outcomes and Measures: Variations in county-level, age-adjusted NCD mortality in the US residents aged 25 to 64 years and associations between mortality and the 4 sets of county-level factors. Results: A total of 6 794 434 deaths due to NCD were recorded during the study period (50.58% women; 16.49% aged 65 years or older). Mortality decreased by 4.30 (95% CI, -4.54 to -4.08) deaths per 100 000 person-years annually from 1999 to 2010 (P < .001) and decreased annually at a rate of 0.90 (95% CI, -1.13 to -0.73) deaths per 100 000 person-years annually from 2010 to 2017 (P < .001). Mortality in the county with the highest mortality was 10.40 times as high as that in the county with the lowest mortality (615.40 vs 59.20 per 100 000 population) in 2017. Geographic inequality was decomposed by between-state and within-state differences, and within-state differences accounted for most inequality (57.10% in 2017). County-level factors were associated with 71.83% variation in NCD mortality. Association with intercounty mortality was 19.51% for demographic features, 23.34% for socioeconomic composition, 16.40% for health care environment, and 40.75% for health-status characteristics. Conclusions and Relevance: Given the stagnated trend of decline and increasing variations in NCD premature mortality, these findings suggest that the WHO 25 × 25 target appears to be unattainable, which may be related to broad failure by United Nations members to follow through on commitments of reducing socioeconomic inequalities. The increasing inequalities in mortality are alarming and warrant expanded multisectoral efforts to ameliorate socioeconomic disparities.

The Use of High-Risk Criteria to Assess Mortality Risk among Unsheltered Homeless Persons.

We assessed the ability of high-risk criteria developed by Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program to identify increased mortality during a 10-year cohort study (January 2000-December 2009) of 445 unsheltered adults. To qualify as high-risk for mortality, an individual slept unsheltered for six consecutive months or longer plus had one or more of the following characteristics: tri-morbidity, defined as co-occurring medical, psychiatric, and addiction diagnoses; one or more inpatient or respite admissions; three or more emergency department visits; 60 years old or older; HIV/AIDS; cirrhosis; renal failure; frostbite, hypothermia, or immersion foot. A total of 119 (26.7%) individuals met the high-risk criteria. The remaining 326 individuals in the cohort were considered lowerrisk. During the study, 134 deaths occurred; 52 (38.8%) were among high-risk individuals. Compared with sheltered individuals, the age-standardized mortality ratio for the high-risk group was 4.0 (95% confidence interval 3.0, 5.2) times higher and for the lower-risk group was 2.2 (1.8, 2.8) times higher. The hazard ratio, a measure of survival, for the high-risk group was 1.7 (1.2, 2.4) times that of the lower-risk group. High-risk criteria predicted an increased likelihood of mortality among unsheltered individuals. The lower-risk group also had high mortality rates compared with sheltered individuals.

Religious Participation and Mortality Risk in Mexico.

OBJECTIVES: Although research suggests that religious involvement tends to favor longevity, most of this work has been conducted in the United States. This article explores the association between religious participation and all-cause mortality risk in Mexico. METHODS: We used data from the 2003-2015 Mexican Health and Aging Study (n = 14,743) and Cox proportional hazard regression models to assess the association between religious participation and all-cause mortality risk. RESULTS: Our key finding is that older Mexicans who participate once or more per week in religious activities tend to exhibit a 19% reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality than those who never participate. This estimate persisted with adjustments for health selection (chronic disease burden, activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, cognitive functioning, and depressive symptoms), several potential mediators (social support, smoking, and drinking), and a range of sociodemographic characteristics. Although we observed considerable health selection due to physical health and cognitive functioning, we found no evidence of mediation. DISCUSSION: Our results confirm that religious participation is associated with lower all-cause mortality risk among older adults in Mexico. Our analyses contribute to previous research by replicating and extending the external validity of studies conducted in the United States, Israel, Denmark, Finland, and Taiwan.

Multimorbidity and Hospital Admissions in High-Need, High-Cost Elderly Patients.

Objective: The aim was to clarify which pairs or clusters of diseases predict the hospital-related events and death in a population of patients with complex health care needs (PCHCN). Method: Subjects classified in 2012 as PCHCN in a local health unit by ACG® (Adjusted Clinical Groups) System were linked with hospital discharge records in 2013 to identify those who experienced any of a series of hospital admission events and death. Number of comorbidities, comorbidities dyads, and latent classes were used as exposure variable. Regression analyses were applied to examine the associations between dependent and exposure variables. Results: Besides the fact that larger number of chronic conditions is associated with higher odds of hospital admission or death, we showed that certain dyads and classes of diseases have a particularly strong association with these outcomes. Discussion: Unlike morbidity counts, analyzing morbidity clusters and dyads reveals which combinations of morbidities are associated with the highest hospitalization rates or death.