The impact of the 2014 Ebola epidemic on HIV disease burden and outcomes in Liberia West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Detailed longitudinal studies of HIV-positive individuals in West Africa are lacking. Here the HIV prevalence, incidence, all-cause mortality, and the proportion of individuals receiving treatment with cART in two cohorts of participants in Ebola-related studies are described. SETTING: Individuals of all ages were enrolled and followed at four sites in the area of Monrovia, Liberia. METHODS: Two cohorts identified in response to the Ebola epidemic are described to provide insights into the current state of the HIV epidemic. HIV testing was performed at baseline for participants in both cohorts and during follow-up in one cohort. RESULTS: Prevalence and incidence of HIV (prevalence of 3.1% for women and 1.4% for men and incidence of 3.3 per 1,000) were higher in these cohorts compared to 2018 national estimates (prevalence of 1.3% and incidence of 0.39 per 1,000). Most participants testing positive did not know their status prior to testing. Of those who knew they were HIV positive, 7.9% reported being on antiretroviral treatment. The death rate among those with HIV was 12.3% compared to 1.9% in HIV-negative individuals (adjusted odds ratio of 6.87). While higher levels of d-dimer were associated with increased mortality, this was not specific to those with HIV, however lower hemoglobin levels were associated with increased mortality among those with HIV. CONCLUSION: These findings point to a need to perform further research studies aimed at fulfilling these knowledge gaps and address current shortcomings in the provision of care for those living with HIV in Liberia.

How prepared is Africa to face COVID-19?

The epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a global concern and subsequently labeled a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11th. As the world mobilizes to contain the COVID-19, scientists and public health experts are increasingly alarmed about the potentially catastrophic effects of an outbreak in Africa. The establishment of Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention by the Africa Union in 2017 was an unprecedented move toward strengthening national responses, so far enabling all fifty member states with confirmed cases of COVID-19 to adequately respond, break chains of transmission and effectively contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We enter an uncertain and challenging period that may severely test the preparedness, organizational resource and resilience of African states and the fabric of their societies. However, we speculate that the fear associated with COVID-19 may also lead to some of the long-standing messages about simple measures to reduce the spread, such as hand washing, finally becoming absorbed and more universally adopted by health workers and the public. Is it possible that regardless of the terrible threat posed by SARS-CoV-2, the increased adoption of these health protection measures may result in a reduction in the spread of other infectious diseases?

Ebola outbreak in West Africa, 2014 - 2016: Epidemic timeline, differential diagnoses, determining factors, and lessons for future response.

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) that raged between 2014 and 2016 in the West African sub-region was one of the global epidemics that spiked international public health concern in the last decade. Since the discovery of ebolavirus in 1976, the 2014-2016 epidemics have been the worst with significant case fatality rates and socioeconomic impact in the affected countries. This review looks at important health determinants that directly accounted for the spatial events of rapid spread and severity of EVD in West Africa, with consequent high fatality rates. It also brings up a time-point health determinant model to conceptualize understanding of this important outbreak with a view to enlightening the public andproviding valuable recommendations that may be crucial to preventing or curtailing any future outbreak of the disease.

The monetary value of human lives lost through Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2019.

BACKGROUND: Between 8 May 2018 and 27 May 2019, cumulatively there were 1286 deaths from Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The objective of this study was to estimate the monetary value of human lives lost through EVD in DRC. METHODS: Human capital approach was applied to monetarily value years of life lost due to premature deaths from EVD. The future losses were discounted to their present values at 3% discount rate. The model was reanalysed using 5 and 10% discount rates. The analysis was done alternately using the average life expectancies for DRC, the world, and the Japanese females to assess the effect on the monetary value of years of life lost (MVYLL). RESULTS: The 1286 deaths resulted in a total MVYLL of Int$17,761,539 assuming 3% discount rate and DRC life expectancy of 60.5 years. The average monetary value per EVD death was of Int$13,801. About 44.7 and 48.6% of the total MVYLL was borne by children aged below 9 years and adults aged between 15 years and 59 years, respectively. Re-estimation of the algorithm with average life expectancies of the world (both sexes) and Japanese females, holding discount rate constant at 3%, increased the MVYLL by Int$ 3,667,085 (20.6%) and Int$ 7,508,498 (42.3%), respectively. The application of discount rates of 5 and 10%, holding life expectancy constant at 60.5 years, reduced the MVYLL by Int$ 4,252,785 (- 23.9%) and Int$ 9,658,195 (- 54.4%) respectively. CONCLUSION: The EVD outbreak in DRC led to a considerable MVYLL. There is an urgent need for DRC government and development partners to disburse adequate resources to strengthen the national health system and other systems that address social determinants of health to end recurrence of EVD outbreaks.

Ebola management centre proximity associated with reduced delays of healthcare of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) patients, Tonkolili, Sierra Leone, 2014-15.

Between August-December 2014, Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) patients from Tonkolili District were referred for care to two Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Ebola Management Centres (EMCs) outside the district (distant EMCs). In December 2014, MSF opened an EMC in Tonkolili District (district EMC). We examined the effect of opening a district-based EMC on time to admission and number of suspect cases dead on arrival (DOA), and identified factors associated with fatality in EVD patients, residents in Tonkolili District. Residents of Tonkolili district who presented between 12 September 2014 and 23 February 2015 to the district EMC and the two distant EMCs were identified from EMC line-lists. EVD cases were confirmed by a positive Ebola PCR test. We calculated time to admission since the onset of symptoms, case-fatality and adjusted Risk Ratios (aRR) using Binomial regression. Of 249 confirmed Ebola cases, 206 (83%) were admitted to the distant EMCs and 43 (17%) to the district EMC. Of them 110 (45%) have died. Confirmed cases dead on arrival (n = 10) were observed only in the distant EMCs. The median time from symptom onset to admission was 6 days (IQR 4,8) in distant EMCs and 3 days (IQR 2,7) in the district EMC (p<0.001). Cases were 2.0 (95%CI 1.4-2.9) times more likely to have delayed admission (>3 days after symptom onset) in the distant compared with the district EMC, but were less likely (aRR = 0.8; 95%CI 0.6-1.0) to have a high viral load (cycle threshold ≤22). A fatal outcome was associated with a high viral load (aRR 2.6; 95%CI 1.8-3.6) and vomiting at first presentation (aRR 1.4; 95%CI 1.0-2.0). The opening of a district EMC was associated with earlier admission of cases to appropriate care facilities, an essential component of reducing EVD transmission. High viral load and vomiting at admission predicted fatality. Healthcare providers should consider the location of EMCs to ensure equitable access during Ebola outbreaks.

The link between the West African Ebola outbreak and health systems in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: An Ebola outbreak started in December 2013 in Guinea and spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone in 2014. The health systems in place in the three countries lacked the infrastructure and the preparation to respond to the outbreak quickly and the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a public health emergency of international concern on August 8 2014. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the effects of health systems' organisation and performance on the West African Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and lessons learned. The WHO health system building blocks were used to evaluate the performance of the health systems in these countries. METHODS: A systematic review of articles published from inception until July 2015 was conducted following the PRISMA guidelines. Electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Global Health, and the Cochrane library were searched for relevant literature. Grey literature was also searched through Google Scholar and Scopus. Articles were exported and selected based on a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data was then extracted into a spreadsheet and a descriptive analysis was performed. Each study was critically appraised using the Crowe Critical Appraisal Tool. The review was supplemented with expert interviews where participants were identified from reference lists and using the snowball method. FINDINGS: Thirteen articles were included in the study and six experts from different organisations were interviewed. Findings were analysed based on the WHO health system building blocks. Shortage of health workforce had an important effect on the control of Ebola but also suffered the most from the outbreak. This was followed by information and research, medical products and technologies, health financing and leadership and governance. Poor surveillance and lack of proper communication also contributed to the outbreak. Lack of available funds jeopardised payments and purchase of essential resources and medicines. Leadership and governance had least findings but an overarching consensus that they would have helped prompt response, adequate coordination and management of resources. CONCLUSION: Ensuring an adequate and efficient health workforce is of the utmost importance to ensure a strong health system and a quick response to new outbreaks. Adequate service delivery results from a collective success of the other blocks. Health financing and its management is crucial to ensure availability of medical products, fund payments to staff and purchase necessary equipment. However, leadership and governance needs to be rigorously explored on their main defects to control the outbreak.

[Revival after Ebola: multidisciplinary assessment at 1 year, prospect and follow-up study of surviving patients from Ebola in Guinea (PostEboGui cohort)]. / (Re)vivre après Ebola : bilan à un an et perspectives d'une étude d'évaluation et accompagnement des patients déclarés guéris d'une infection par le virus Ebola en Guinée (cohorte PostEboGui).

Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that spread in West Africa from the end of 2013 to early 2016 has reached more people than all past epidemics. Beyond care management of acute phase ill patients and measures for the control of the epidemic, the outcome of Ebola survivors became an important question as their number increased and raised new issues. A multidisciplinary prospective cohort of survivors in Guinea has been launched by IRD UMI 233 and Donka National Hospital, Conakry, Guinea, to assess the long-term clinical, psychological, sociological, immunological, and viral outcomes potentially related to EVD. This paper describes PostEboGui Programme, constraints and changes to the initial proposal, participants, first results, and new issues, 1 year after its start, in a descriptive and critical view. We started also to work on ethical aspects in the context of epidemics and of mass interventions with a risk of overinvestigation of patients.

Assessment of the severity of Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone in 2014-2015.

The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa is unprecedented in scale, and Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country. The case fatality risk (CFR) and hospitalization fatality risk (HFR) were used to characterize the severity of infections in confirmed and probable EVD cases in Sierra Leone. Proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate factors associated with the risk of death in EVD cases. In total, there were 17 318 EVD cases reported in Sierra Leone from 23 May 2014 to 31 January 2015. Of the probable and confirmed EVD cases with a reported final outcome, a total of 2536 deaths and 886 recoveries were reported. CFR and HFR estimates were 74·2% [95% credibility interval (CrI) 72·6-75·5] and 68·9% (95% CrI 66·2-71·6), respectively. Risks of death were higher in the youngest (0-4 years) and oldest (⩾60 years) age groups, and in the calendar month of October 2014. Sex and occupational status did not significantly affect the mortality of EVD. The CFR and HFR estimates of EVD were very high in Sierra Leone.

Forecasting and control policy assessment for the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Sierra Leone using small-world networked model simulations.

OBJECTIVES: As the Ebola virus disease is still sustained in Sierra Leone, we analysed the epidemic for a recent period (21 December 2014 to 17 April 2015) using a small-world networked model and forecasted its evolution. Policy-control scenarios for the containment of the epidemic were also examined. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model with 6 million individuals (the population of Sierra Leone) interacting through a small-world social network. The model incorporates the main epidemiological factors, including the effect of burial practices to virus transmission. The effective reproductive number (Re) was evaluated directly from the agent-based simulations. Estimates of the epidemiological variables were computed on the basis of the official cases as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). RESULTS: From 21 December 2014 to 18 February 2015 the epidemic was in recession compared with previous months, as indicated by the estimated Re of ∼ 0.77 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.82). From 18 February to 17 April 2015, the Re rose above criticality (∼ 1.98, 95% CI 1.33 to 2.22), flashing a note of caution for the situation. By projecting in time, we predicted that the epidemic would continue through July 2015. Our predictions were close to the cases reported by CDC by the end of June, verifying the criticality of the situation. In light of these developments, while revising our manuscript, we expanded our analysis to include the most recent data (until 15 August 2015). By mid-August, Re had fallen below criticality and the epidemic was expected to fade out by early December 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Our results call for the continuation of drastic control measures, which in the absence of an effective vaccine or therapy at present can only translate to isolation of the infected section of the population, to contain the epidemic.

Reflecting on the Ebola Epidemic: What If?

Could a better health care system in West Africa have saved lives?

Indirect costs associated with deaths from the Ebola virus disease in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: By 28 June 2015, there were a total of 11,234 deaths from the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in five West African countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria and Sierra Leone). The objective of this study was to estimate the future productivity losses associated with EVD deaths in these West African countries, in order to encourage increased investments in national health systems. METHODS: A cost-of-illness method was employed to calculate future non-health (NH) gross domestic product (GDP) (NHGDP) losses associated with EVD deaths. The future non-health GDP loss (NHGDPLoss) was discounted at 3 %. Separate analyses were done for three different age groups (< =14 years, 15-44 years and = >45 years) for the five countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone) affected by EVD. We also conducted a one-way sensitivity analysis at 5 and 10 % discount rates to gauge their impacts on expected NHGDPLoss. RESULTS: The discounted value of future NHGDPLoss due to the 11,234 deaths associated with EVD was estimated to be Int$ (international dollars) 155,663,244. About 27.86 % of the loss would be borne by Guinea, 34.84 % by Liberia, 0.10 % by Mali, 0.24 % by Nigeria and 36.96 % by Sierra Leone. About 27.27 % of the loss is attributed to those aged under 14 years, 66.27 % to those aged 15-44 years and 6.46 % to those aged over 45 years. The average NHGDPLoss per EVD death was estimated to be Int$ 17,473 for Guinea, Int$ 11,283 for Liberia, Int$ 25,126 for Mali, Int$ 47,364 for Nigeria and Int$ 14,633 for Sierra Leone. CONCLUSION: In spite of alluded limitations, the estimates of human and economic losses reported in this paper, in addition to those projected by the World Bank, show that EVD imposes a significant economic burden on the affected West African countries. That heavy burden, coupled with human rights and global security concerns, underscores the urgent need for increased domestic and external investments to enable Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (and other vulnerable African countries) to develop resilient health systems, including core capacities to detect, assess, notify, verify and report events, and to respond to public health risks and emergencies.

Use of a nationwide call center for Ebola response and monitoring during a 3-day house-to-house campaign - Sierra Leone, September 2014.

During May 23, 2014-January 10, 2015, Sierra Leone reported 7,777 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (Ebola). In response to the epidemic, on August 5, Sierra Leone's Emergency Operations Center established a toll-free, nationwide Ebola call center. The purpose of the call center is to encourage public reporting of possible Ebola cases and deaths to public health officials and to provide health education about Ebola to callers. This information also functions as an "alert" system for public health officials and supports surveillance efforts for the response. National call center dispatchers call district-level response teams composed of surveillance officers and burial teams to inform them of reported deaths and possible Ebola cases. Members of these response teams investigate cases and conduct follow-up actions such as transporting ill persons to Ebola treatment units or providing safe, dignified medical burials as resources permit. The call center continues to operate. This report describes calls received during a 3-day national campaign and reports the results of an assessment of the call center operation during the campaign.