Indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalisations for cardiometabolic conditions and their management: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a dramatic crisis in health care systems worldwide. These may have significant implications for the management of cardiometabolic diseases. We conducted a systematic review of published evidence to assess the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalisations for cardiovascular diseases and their management. METHODS: Studies that evaluated volume of hospitalisations for cardiometabolic conditions and their management with comparisons between the COVID-19 and pre-COVID periods were identified from MEDLINE, Embase and the reference list of relevant studies from January 2020 to 25 February 2021. RESULTS: We identified 103 observational studies, with most studies assessing hospitalisations for acute cardiovascular conditions such as acute coronary syndrome, ischemic strokes and heart failure. About 89% of studies reported a decline in hospitalisations during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic times, with reductions ranging from 20.2 to 73%. Severe presentation, less utilization of cardiovascular procedures, and longer patient- and healthcare-related delays were common during the pandemic. Most studies reported shorter length of hospital stay during the pandemic than before the pandemic (1-8 vs 2-12 days) or no difference in length of stay. Most studies reported no change in in-hospital mortality among hospitalised patients. CONCLUSION: Clinical care of patients for acute cardiovascular conditions, their management and outcomes have been adversely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients should be educated via population-wide approaches on the need for timely medical contact and health systems should put strategies in place to provide timely care to patients at high risk. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2021: CRD42021236102.

Indicadores de desigualdad y mortalidad por enfermedades cardiometabólicas en Guatemala / Inequality indicators and cardiometabolic diseases mortality in Guatemalahttps

La medición de las desigualdades en salud al interior de los países de ingresos bajos y medios es necesaria para la planificación, monitoreo y evaluación de intervenciones de salud pública, especialmente para problemas que contribuyen altamente a la carga de enfermedad, como las enfermedades cardiometabólicas. El objetivo de este estudio fue caracterizar los patrones de desigualdad de las tasas de mortalidad para las principales causas cardiometabólicas en Guatemala. Se usó datos del Censo Nacional de Población, y estadísticas oficiales de de-función de 2018 para calcular tasas crudas de mortalidad para diabetes (DM), infarto agudo de miocardio (IAM), y accidente cerebrovascular (ACV). Se calcularon indicadores simples y complejos de desigualdad absoluta y relativa (diferencia, razón, índice de pendiente, índice de concentración, distancia de la media, índice de Theil, riesgo atribuible poblacional, y porcentaje de riesgo atribuible poblacional) para seis dimensiones de desigualdad: sexo, pueblo de pertenencia, nivel educativo, tipo de ocupación, departamento y municipio. Se documentaron 6,445 muertes por DM, 5,761 por IAM, y 3,218 por ACV. Los indicadores mostraron marcadas desigualdades para las seis dimensiones estudiadas. El patrón de desigualdad predominante para sexo, pueblo de pertenencia y departamento fue de privación masiva. Para nivel educativo y ocupación predominó un patrón de incrementos escalonados. Se identificó exclusión marginal superpuesta en nivel educativo, ocupación y municipio. Se concluye que los patrones de desigualdad de las tasas de mortalidad para estas tres enfermedades sugieren la superposición de patrones de privación masiva, incrementos escalonados, y exclusión marginal.

Measuring health inequalities within low- and middle-income countries is needed for planning, monitoring, and evaluation of public health interventions, especially for problems that represent a high burden of disease, like cardio metabolic diseases. The goal of this study was to characterize inequality patterns in mortality rates from cardio metabolic causes in Guatemala. Data from the 2018 National Population Census, and official vital statistics were used to estimate crude mortality rates for diabetes (DM), acute myocardial infarction (IAM), and stroke (ACV). Simple and complex indicators of absolute and relative inequality (difference, ratio, slope index, concentration index, distance from the mean, Theil index, population attributable risk, and percentage of popula-tion attributable risk) were calculated for six dimensions of inequality: sex, race/ethnicity, education level, type of occupation, department, and municipality. A total of 6,445 DM deaths, 5,761 IAM deaths, and 3,218 ACV deaths were documented. Indicators showed marked inequalities for the six dimensions studied. Massive deprivation was the predominant inequality pattern for sex, race/ethnicity, and department. Staggered increments were iden-tified for education level and type of occupation. Overlapping marginal exclusion was found for education level, occupation, and municipality. We conclude that inequality patterns found for the three causes of death suggest overlapping patterns of mass deprivation, staggered increments, and marginal exclusion.

Association between metabolic diseases and the culling risk of high-yielding dairy cows in a transition management facility using survival and decision tree analysis.

The objective of this study was to assess the association between individual metabolic diseases (MD) and multiple MD (MD+) in the transition period (±3 wk relative to calving) and the culling risk in the first 120 d in milk (DIM) in Holstein-Friesian dairy cows. Health records from a transition management facility in Germany with 1,946 calvings were analyzed in a 1-yr cohort via survival analysis and a decision tree model. The recorded MD were milk fever (MF), retained placenta (RP), metritis (METR), ketosis (KET), displaced abomasum (DA), twinning (TWIN), and clinical mastitis (MAST). The overall culling within 120 DIM was 18%. The 120 DIM culling risk for healthy cows (64.8% of the total) was 13%, whereas it was 25% for MD (24.5%) and 33% for MD+ (10.7%) cows. The 120 DIM culling risk (%) for each MD and MD+, respectively, was 34.6 and 48 for MF and MF+, 15 and 31.5 for RP and RP+, 9.4 and 22.2 for METR and METR+, 30.7 and 37.3 for KET and KET+, 56.1 and 46.8 for DA and DA+, 30.3 and 34 for TWIN and TWIN+, and 36.6 and 27.8 for MAST and MAST+. Moreover, the incidence risk (%) for each MD and MD+, respectively, was 4 and 2.6 for MF and MF+, 1 and 2.8 for RP and RP+, 8.7 and 6 for METR and METR+, 4.5 and 6.1 for KET and KET+, 0.8 and 2.4 for DA and DA+, 1.7 and 2.7 for TWIN and TWIN+, and 3.6 and 1.8 for MAST and MAST+. Setting the healthy cows as the referent, the 120 DIM hazard ratios (HR) for culling were MD 2.1, MD+ 2.9, MF 3.3, MF+ 4.6, RP+ 2.7, METR+ 1.8, KET 2.6, KET+ 3.3, DA 5.5, DA+ 4.5, TWIN 2.8, TWIN+ 3.0, MAST 3.1, and MAST+ 2.3. According to both decision tree and random forest analyses, MF was the most significant disease influencing survival, followed by DA, MAST, METR, and TWIN. In conclusion, the presence of MD or MD+ during the transition period was associated with increased culling risk in the first 120 DIM. The culling hazard was greater when an MD was complicated with another MD. In this study performed in a well-managed large farm, uncomplicated cases of RP (HR = 1.2) and METR (HR = 0.7) did not have an influence on the 120 DIM culling risk. Interestingly, both decision tree and random forest analyses pointed to MF and DA as main culling reasons in the first 120 DIM in the present dairy herd.

Comparative risk assessment of school food environment policies and childhood diets, childhood obesity, and future cardiometabolic mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Promising school policies to improve children's diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality. METHODS: We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5-18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted. CONCLUSION: National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. FINDINGS: Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. INTERPRETATION: Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Estimating change in cardiovascular disease and diabetes burdens due to dietary and metabolic factors in Korea 1998-2011: a comparative risk assessment analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Over the past 10 years, the burden of chronic diseases in Korea has increased. However, there are currently no quantitative estimates of how changes in diet and metabolic factors have contributed to these shifting burdens. This study aims to evaluate the contributions of dietary and metabolic risk factors to death from cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) such as cardiovascular conditions, strokes and diabetes in Korea, and to estimate how these contributions have changed over the past 10 years (1998-2011). DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data on 6 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors by sex, age and year from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The relative risks for the effects of the risk factors on CMD mortality were obtained from meta-analyses. The population-attributable fraction attributable to the risk factors was calculated by using a comparative risk assessment approach across sex and age strata (males and females, age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and 75+ years) from 1998 to 2011. RESULTS: The results showed that a suboptimal diet and high blood pressure were the main risk factors for CMD mortality in Korea. High blood pressure accounted for 127 096 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 121 907 to 132 218) deaths from CMD. Among the individual dietary risk factors, a high intake of sodium (42 387 deaths; 95% UI: 42 387 to 65 094) and a low intake of fruit (50 244 deaths; 95% UI: 40 981 to 59 178) and whole grains (54 248 deaths; 95% UI: 47 020 to 61 343) were responsible for the highest number of CMD deaths in Korea. CONCLUSIONS: Indicating the relative importance of risk factors in Korea, the results suggest that metabolic and dietary risk factors were major contributors to CMD mortality.

Mortality and socioeconomic status in adults with childhood onset GH deficiency (GHD) is highly dependent on the primary cause of GHD.

OBJECTIVE: Childhood onset GH deficiency (CO-GHD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality; however, the patients' socioeconomic profile as adults is not fully known. DESIGN: Register study using Danish nationwide registries. Two hundred and sixty GHD males and 156 GHD females and 25,358 male and 15,110 female controls were included. METHODS: Information was obtained concerning cohabitation, parenthood, education, income, retirement, convictions, and death. Income was analyzed using conditional logistic regression, and other outcomes were analyzed using Cox regression. Subgroups of GHD patients with malignant tumors, craniopharyngioma, idiopathic GHD, and others were investigated separately. RESULTS: Both male and female GHD patients had a significantly worse outcome on all studied socioeconomic parameters. Fewer GHD patients lived in partnerships and entered them later (male hazard ratio (HR): 0.31; female HR: 0.33), had fewer parenthoods (male HR: 0.26; female HR: 0.26), lower educational level (male HR: 0.58; female HR: 0.48), lower income, higher risk of retirement (male HR: 13.4; female HR: 24.2), and fewer convictions (male HR: 0.67; female HR: 0.49). Mortality was increased (male HR: 10.7; female HR: 21.4). Adjusted for marital and educational status, male HR of death was 5.2 and female HR 10.5. Patients with idiopathic GHD had a socioeconomic profile similar to controls. CONCLUSION: The primary causes of CO-GHD and concomitant diseases severely impair socioeconomic conditions and impact mortality; only the subgroup of patients with idiopathic GHD conditions was similar to the background population.

Complementarity of Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) for predicting poor clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We evaluated the ability of Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) to predict malnutrition related to poor clinical outcomes. METHODS: We assessed 705 patients at a public university hospital within 48 h of admission. Logistic regression and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated to test the complementarity between the tools and their ability to predict very long length of hospital stay (VLLOS), complications, and death. RESULTS: Of the patients screened, 27.9% were at nutritional risk (NRS+) and 38.9% were malnourished (SGA B or C). Compared to those patients not at nutritional risk, NRS+, SGA B or C patients were at increased risk for complications (p=0.03, 0.02, and 0.003, respectively). NRS+ patients had an increased risk of death (p=0.03), and SGA B and C patients had an increased likelihood of VLLOS (p=0.008 and p<0.0001, respectively). Patients who were both NRS+ and SGA C had lower estimates of NNS than patients who were NRS+ or SGA C only, though their confidence intervals did overlap. CONCLUSIONS: The concurrent application of SGA in NRS+ patients might enhance the ability to predict poor clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients in Brazil.

The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the number of deaths caused by risk factors is needed for health policy and priority setting. Our aim was to estimate the mortality effects of the following 12 modifiable dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors in the United States (US) using consistent and comparable methods: high blood glucose, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and blood pressure; overweight-obesity; high dietary trans fatty acids and salt; low dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids, omega-3 fatty acids (seafood), and fruits and vegetables; physical inactivity; alcohol use; and tobacco smoking. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data on risk factor exposures in the US population from nationally representative health surveys and disease-specific mortality statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics. We obtained the etiological effects of risk factors on disease-specific mortality, by age, from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies that had adjusted (i) for major potential confounders, and (ii) where possible for regression dilution bias. We estimated the number of disease-specific deaths attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factor exposure, by age and sex. In 2005, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure were responsible for an estimated 467,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 436,000-500,000) and 395,000 (372,000-414,000) deaths, accounting for about one in five or six deaths in US adults. Overweight-obesity (216,000; 188,000-237,000) and physical inactivity (191,000; 164,000-222,000) were each responsible for nearly 1 in 10 deaths. High dietary salt (102,000; 97,000-107,000), low dietary omega-3 fatty acids (84,000; 72,000-96,000), and high dietary trans fatty acids (82,000; 63,000-97,000) were the dietary risks with the largest mortality effects. Although 26,000 (23,000-40,000) deaths from ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and diabetes were averted by current alcohol use, they were outweighed by 90,000 (88,000-94,000) deaths from other cardiovascular diseases, cancers, liver cirrhosis, pancreatitis, alcohol use disorders, road traffic and other injuries, and violence. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking and high blood pressure, which both have effective interventions, are responsible for the largest number of deaths in the US. Other dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors for chronic diseases also cause a substantial number of deaths in the US.

[Causes of death of children at the Hôpital des Enfants-Malades. Statistical study of 1 098 pathologic and clinical records collected from 1966 to 1975 (author's transl)]. / Les causes de mort de l'enfant à l'Hôpital des Enfants-Malades. Etude statistique de 1 098 dossiers anatomo-cliniques réunis en 10 ans (1966-1975).

The clinical and histopathologic records of 1 098 children under 15 years of age, deceased at the hôpital des Enfants-Malades from 1966 to 1975 were studied. This material represents 44% of the total deaths of the same period. This study uses both the international classification of diseases and W.H.O.'s criteria, for distinguishing in causes of death between the principal cause, the immediate cause and associated causes. A higher mortality rate was observed in boys (58%), during the first year of life (80%), during the first 12 hours following admission (13%) and during the night. Causes of death are rarely isolated (10%), more often multiple: double (50%), or even triple or more (40%). Malformations represent 40% of the main causes of death, infections 14%, perinatal mortality 11%. Among immediate causes, infectious diseases are responsible for 23% of the deaths, respiratory disorders for 15%. Among associated causes are seen, in decreasing order of frequency: surgical procedures, prematurity, known or unrecognized associated malformations. Infections occurring during hospitalization represent the principal iatrogenic disorders. Anatomico-clinical examination failed to find an immediate cause of death in 25% of the cases and a principal cause in 7%.