Surveillance and risk assessment for early detection of emerging infectious diseases in livestock.

Those who work in the area of surveillance and prevention of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) face a challenge in accurately predicting where infection will occur and who (or what) it will affect. Establishing surveillance and control programmes for EIDs requires substantial and long-term commitment of resources that are limited in nature. This contrasts with the unquantifiable number of possible zoonotic and non-zoonotic infectious diseases that may emerge, even when the focus is restricted to diseases involving livestock. Such diseases may emerge from many combinations of, and changes in, host species, production systems, environments/habitats and pathogen types. Given these multiple elements, risk prioritisation frameworks should be used more widely to support decision-making and resource allocation for surveillance. In this paper, the authors use recent examples of EID events in livestock to review surveillance approaches for the early detection of EIDs, and highlight the need for surveillance programmes to be informed and prioritised by regularly updated risk assessment frameworks. They conclude by discussing some unmet needs in risk assessment practices for EIDs, and the need for improved coordination in global infectious disease surveillance.

Les personnes travaillant dans le domaine de la surveillance et de la prévention des maladies infectieuses émergentes (MIE) sont confrontées à la difficulté de prédire avec exactitude le lieu d'émergence d'une maladie, ainsi que l'espèce, le système ou le site affectés. La mise en place de programmes de surveillance et de lutte contre les MIE exige une mobilisation conséquente et durable de ressources nécessairement limitées. Par contraste, le nombre des maladies infectieuses zoonotiques et non zoonotiques pouvant se déclarer est impossible à quantifier, même si l'on s'en tient aux seules maladies affectant les animaux d'élevage. Ces maladies surviennent à la faveur des nombreuses et diverses configurations, associations ou modifications qui peuvent se produire parmi les espèces hôtes, les systèmes de production, les environnements ou habitats et les types d'agents pathogènes. Compte tenu de la multiplicité de ces éléments, il devrait être fait plus largement appel à des cadres de priorisation du risque afin de soutenir les processus de prise de décision et d'allocation des ressources en matière de surveillance. Les auteurs s'appuient sur des exemples récents d'événements liés à des MIE pour faire le point sur les méthodes de surveillance appliquées pour la détection précoce de ces maladies et soulignent l'importance de documenter et de prioriser les programmes de surveillance en procédant à des mises à jour régulières des cadres utilisés pour l'évaluation du risque. Ils concluent en évoquant certains aspects importants que les pratiques actuelles d'évaluation du risque ne permettent pas de couvrir lorsqu'il s'agit de MIE, ainsi que l'importance d'améliorer la coordination de la surveillance des maladies infectieuses au niveau mondial.

Cuantos trabajan en el ámbito de la vigilancia y la prevención de enfermedades infecciosas emergentes (EIE) tienen dificultades para predecir con precisión dónde va a surgir y a quién (o qué) afectará una infección. La instauración de programas de vigilancia y control de EIE exige una inversión sustancial y duradera de recursos que por definición son escasos, sobre todo teniendo en cuenta el número incalculable de enfermedades infecciosas zoonóticas y no zoonóticas que pueden aparecer, aun considerando solo aquellas que afectan al ganado. Este tipo de enfermedades pueden surgir como resultado de muchas combinaciones distintas de especie hospedadora, sistema productivo, medio/hábitat y tipo de patógeno o por efecto de cambios que se den en cualquiera de estos elementos. En vista de la multiplicidad de factores que concurren, convendría emplear de modo más generalizado un sistema de jerarquización de los riesgos en el cual fundamentar las decisiones de vigilancia y la distribución de los recursos destinados a ella. Los autores, valiéndose de ejemplos recientes de episodios infecciosos emergentes que afectaron al ganado, pasan revista a distintos métodos de vigilancia para la detección temprana de EIE y recalcan que los programas de vigilancia deben reposar en procedimientos de determinación del riesgo periódicamente actualizados y en las prioridades fijadas a partir de estos procedimientos. Por último, los autores se detienen en algunas necesidades desatendidas en la praxis de la determinación del riesgo de EIE y en la necesidad de una mejor coordinación de la vigilancia mundial de las enfermedades infecciosas.

Lumpy skin disease, an emerging transboundary viral disease: A review.

Lumpy skin disease is an emerging bovine viral disease, which is endemic in most African countries and some Middle East ones, and the elevated risk of the spread of disease into the rest of Asia and Europe should be considered. The recent rapid spread of disease in currently disease-free countries indicates the importance of understanding the limitations and routes of distribution. The causative agent, Capripoxvirus, can also induce sheeppox and goatpox. The economic significance of these diseases is of great concern, given that they threaten international trade and could be used as economic bioterrorism agents. The distribution of capripoxviruses seems to be expanding due to limited access to effective vaccines and poverty within farming communities. This is largely due to the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the imposition of crippling sanctions in endemic regions, as well as an increase in the legal and illegal trade of live animals and animal products, and also global climate change. The present review is designed to provide existing information on the various aspects of the disease such as its clinicopathology, transmission, epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention and control measures, and the potential role of wildlife in the further spread of disease.

Obstacles to vaccination of animals and prospective solutions.

On the 17th of October 2019, a workshop was held at Wageningen Bioveterinary Research in Lelystad, the Netherlands, to discuss the obstacles to vaccination in the veterinary field. Participants from academia, OIE, FAO, EC, EMA, USDA, national regulatory and veterinary health authorities, and the animal health industry discussed how availability and access to animal vaccines can be improved not just in the EU and US but also in Low to Middle Income Countries (LMIC) across the world and agreed that this requires innovations in both the scientific and the regulatory field. The workshop called for engaging all stakeholders to improve regulatory acceptance of novel vaccine technologies and encourage their registration. There is a need for better mutual understanding between academia, industry and regulators, and more openness to discuss framework, requirements, and product authorisations, and to converge the regulatory rules between regions. The next leap forward could be a broader application of novel technologies using RNA- or DNA-based vaccine platforms, where the "backbone" is maintained, while the gene of interest coding for an immunogenic protein can be exchanged in a standardised manner. This approach enables rapid response in outbreak situations and should lower the risk and cost of vaccine development.

The NC229 multi-station research consortium on emerging viral diseases of swine: Solving stakeholder problems through innovative science and research.

The NC229 research consortium was created in 1999 in response to the emergence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), a viral agent responsible for devastating economic losses to the swine industry. The project follows the traditional "consortium" approach for Multistate Agricultural Research driven through the US State Agricultural Experiment Stations (SAES), wherein stakeholder-driven needs to combat swine infectious diseases are identified and scientific solutions pursued by combining funds from federal, state, commodity groups, and the animal health industry. The NC229 consortium was the main driving force in successfully competing for a USDA multi-station Coordinated Agricultural Project (PRRS CAP-I) in 2004-2008, immediately followed by a renewal for 2010-2014 (PRRS CAP-II)-, resulting in an overall record achievement of almost $10 million dollars. The CAP funding was not only useful for quality research, extension, and education in PRRS and related diseases, but also instrumental in enabling the group to leverage swine industry funding of more than $34 million dollars, distributed between creative research and extension on PRRS during the last 20 years. The North American/International PRRS Symposium, now recognized by the community as a highly effective platform for the exchange of basic research findings and fundamental translational technology, is directly derived from the NC229 consortium. Other significant offshoots from NC229 include the PHGC (PRRS Host Genomic Consortium), a platform for discoveries on the role of host genetics during PRRSV infection, since 2007. Since 2009, the NC229 consortium has expanded its collective research interests beyond PRRSV to include nine other emerging viral diseases of swine. In the current project (2019-2024), African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) retains a central focus, with the goal of harnessing the group's expertise in promoting preparedness for the global control of ASFV.

Global trends in infectious diseases of swine.

Pork accounts for more than one-third of meat produced worldwide and is an important component of global food security, agricultural economies, and trade. Infectious diseases are among the primary constraints to swine production, and the globalization of the swine industry has contributed to the emergence and spread of pathogens. Despite the importance of infectious diseases to animal health and the stability and productivity of the global swine industry, pathogens of swine have never been reviewed at a global scale. Here, we build a holistic global picture of research on swine pathogens to enhance preparedness and understand patterns of emergence and spread. By conducting a scoping review of more than 57,000 publications across 50 years, we identify priority pathogens globally and regionally, and characterize geographic and temporal trends in research priorities. Of the 40 identified pathogens, publication rates for eight pathogens increased faster than overall trends, suggesting that these pathogens may be emerging or constitute an increasing threat. We also compared regional patterns of pathogen prioritization in the context of policy differences, history of outbreaks, and differing swine health challenges faced in regions where swine production has become more industrialized. We documented a general increasing trend in importance of zoonotic pathogens and show that structural changes in the industry related to intensive swine production shift pathogen prioritization. Multinational collaboration networks were strongly shaped by region, colonial ties, and pig trade networks. This review represents the most comprehensive overview of research on swine infectious diseases to date.

Web monitoring of emerging animal infectious diseases integrated in the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System.

Since 2013, the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System (in French: Veille Sanitaire Internationale, VSI) has been monitoring signals of the emergence of new and exotic animal infectious diseases worldwide. Once detected, the VSI team verifies the signals and issues early warning reports to French animal health authorities when potential threats to France are detected. To improve detection of signals from online news sources, we designed the Platform for Automated extraction of Disease Information from the web (PADI-web). PADI-web automatically collects, processes and extracts English-language epidemiological information from Google News. The core component of PADI-web is a combined information extraction (IE) method founded on rule-based systems and data mining techniques. The IE approach allows extraction of key information on diseases, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases mentioned in the news. We evaluated the combined method for IE on a dataset of 352 disease-related news reports mentioning the diseases involved, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases. The combined method for IE accurately identified (F-score) 95% of the diseases and hosts, respectively, 85% of the number of cases, 83% of dates and 80% of locations from the disease-related news. We assessed the sensitivity of PADI-web to detect primary outbreaks of four emerging animal infectious diseases notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). From January to June 2016, PADI-web detected signals for 64% of all primary outbreaks of African swine fever, 53% of avian influenza, 25% of bluetongue and 19% of foot-and-mouth disease. PADI-web timely detected primary outbreaks of avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, i.e. they were detected 8 and 3 days before immediate notification to OIE, respectively.

First detection of Cryptosporidium parvum in falcons (Falconiformes): Diagnosis, molecular sequencing, therapeutic trial and epidemiological assessment of a possible emerging disease in captive falcons.

Cryptosporidiosis in raptors and falcons is well-known to be caused by Cryptosporidium baileyi and associated mainly with respiratory pathology. This report presents the diagnosis of an atypical cryptosporidiosis event caused by Cryptosporidium parvum, that to the authors' knowledge, is a case observed for the first time in falcons. Two falcons (Gyrfalcon x Peregrine hybrids) were presented for annual check without any clinical signs. Hematology, biochemistry, fecal and crop parasitology, radiographic and endoscopic examinations were performed. Endoscopy revealed microcystic formation of the caudal lung field in the two falcons, adhesions and air sac alterations. Sampling and subsequent cytology revealed fungal spores and acid fast stain organisms (identified as Cryptosporidium spp.). Feces and affected lung tissue was further send for Cryptosporidium spp.-DNA detection. Fecal samples and lung tissue tested positive for Cryptosporidium spp. gp60 gene by PCR. By sequence analysis of the gp60 gene locus, diagnosis of C. parvum was confirmed with 100% homology. Despite the fact that falcons didn't recover after 1 month of therapy, eight months after the initial examination they were clinically healthy and had satisfactory flying performance. No other falcons were observed with C. parvum infections in the facility so far. The possible source, infection route and implications are discussed.

Where to next with animal health in Latin America? The transition from endemic to disease-free status.

The Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) is a leading global producer and exporter of animal products. Its livestock production systems are diverse, ranging from large-scale commercial enterprises to family farms. Countries in this region have sought to improve their animal health status through both public and private efforts. Despite significant advances in eradicating such diseases as foot and mouth disease and classical swine fever, other animal health challenges remain; constraining exports, causing negative economic impacts and threatening food security. Obtaining certification of disease-free status is only the first step towards gaining benefits from improvements in animal health. Increasing international trade means that countries must manage the sustainability of their disease-free status in conjunction with trade partners and must comply with additional food safety and animal welfare standards. This paper comments on the challenges created by this new scenario in relation to the epidemiology and economics of animal health, when seeking to improve decisionmaking for animal health management. The authors characterise the current LAC livestock landscape and animal health situation, describing transitions in disease control and the use of economics in improving animal health. They conclude with remarks on the challenges presented by decision-making, economic rationality, sources of benefits, distribution and incentives.

La région Amérique latine et Caraïbes est l'une des principales régions productrices et exportatrices de produits d'origine animale dans le monde. Les systèmes de production du secteur de l'élevage y sont très diversifiés, depuis les petites exploitations familiales jusqu'aux élevages commerciaux à grande échelle. Les pays de la région ont cherché à améliorer la situation de la santé animale sur leur territoire en y consacrant les efforts de leur secteur public et privé. Malgré les avancées considérables réalisées dans l'éradication de maladies comme la fièvre aphteuse et la peste porcine classique, la santé animale est encore confrontée à des problèmes qui freinent les exportations et ont un impact économique négatif, tout en menaçant la sécurité de l'approvisionnement alimentaire. La reconnaissance officielle du statut indemne de maladie ne représente qu'une première étape dans le processus visant à générer des bénéfices grâce à une meilleure santé animale. L'intensification des échanges internationaux impose aux pays de s'assurer de la durabilité de leur statut indemne aux côtés de leurs partenaires commerciaux et de respecter de nouvelles normes relatives à la sécurité sanitaire des aliments et au bien-être animal. Les auteurs analysent les conséquences de ce scénario sur l'épidémiologie et l'économie de la santé animale ainsi que ses enjeux dans la recherche d'une meilleure prise de décisions dans la gestion de la santé animale. Ils définissent ensuite le paysage actuel de l'élevage et la situation de la santé animale en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes et décrivent les évolutions à l'oeuvre en matière de lutte contre les maladies animales et d'utilisation de l'économie dans l'amélioration de la santé animale. Ils concluent sur quelques remarques concernant les difficultés qui se présentent en matière de prise de décision, de rationalité économique, de sources de profit, de distribution et d'incitation.

La región de América Latina y el Caribe es uno de los principales productores y exportadores de productos animales del mundo. Sus sistemas de producción ganadera exhiben gran heterogeneidad, pues van desde las grandes empresas de dimensión industrial hasta las pequeñas explotaciones familiares. Apoyándose en la iniciativa tanto pública como privada, los países de la región vienen tratando de mejorar su situación zoosanitaria. Pese a los importantes progresos registrados en la erradicación de enfermedades como la fiebre aftosa o la peste porcina clásica, subsisten otros problemas de sanidad animal que restringen las exportaciones, lastran la economía y amenazan la seguridad alimentaria. La certificación de «ausencia de enfermedad¼ es solo el primer paso para beneficiarse de las mejoras conseguidas en el terreno de la sanidad animal. Habida cuenta de la intensificación del comercio internacional, los países deben gestionar la continuidad a largo plazo de su estatuto de «libres de enfermedad¼ conjuntamente con sus socios comerciales y, para ello, cumplir normas adicionales en material de inocuidad de los alimentos y bienestar animal. Los autores exponen las dificultades que se plantean en esta nueva coyuntura de la epidemiología y la economía de la sanidad animal a la hora de mejorar los procesos decisorios en materia de gestión zoosanitaria. Tras caracterizar el actual paisaje de la ganadería y la situación zoosanitaria en América Latina y el Caribe, describen la transición que se está operando en cuanto al control de enfermedades y al uso de la economía para mejorar la sanidad animal y concluyen con una serie de observaciones sobre los problemas que surgen en relación con la adopción de decisiones, la racionalidad económica, las fuentes de beneficios y las cuestiones ligadas a la distribución y los incentivos.

Economic assessment of an emerging disease: the case of Schmallenberg virus in France.

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was first detected in 2011 in Germany and then in France in 2012. This study simulates the production of different ruminant systems in France and estimates, through partial budget analyses, the economic cost of SBV at the farm level, under two disease scenarios (a high-impact and low-impact scenario). A partial budget is used to evaluate the financial effect of incremental changes, and includes only resources or production that will be changed. In the high-impact scenario, the estimated impact of SBV ranged from €23 to €43 per cow per year and €19 to €37 per ewe per year. In the low-impact scenario, it was approximately half (for cows) or one-third (for ewes) of this amount. These financial impacts represent 0.6% to 63% of the gross margin, depending on the chosen scenario and the livestock system being considered. The impacts of SBV come mainly from: the extra costs from purchasing and raising replacement heifers and losses in milk production (dairy cows); the losses in calf or lamb production (beef systems and meat sheep); and the losses in milk production and from unsold replacement lambs (dairy sheep). The use of integrated production and economic models enabled the authors to estimate the cost of SBV and to tackle the problem of scarce data, which is a difficulty for most emerging diseases, by their very nature. It also allowed the authors to develop an accurate disease impact assessment for several production systems, over a short time span. Extrapolating from this economic assessment to predict the scenario in coming years depends on the immunity period of the disease and the length of the production cycles.

Le virus de Schmallenberg a été détecté pour la première fois en 2011 en Allemagne, puis en France en 2012. Les auteurs présentent une étude de simulation de plusieurs systèmes de production de ruminants en France, dont l'objectif était d'estimer, à partir d'analyses budgétaires partielles, les coûts économiques du virus de Schmallenberg à l'échelle des exploitations, sous deux scénarios différents (hypothèses d'un fort impact et d'un faible impact de la maladie, respectivement). Une analyse budgétaire partielle sert à évaluer les conséquences financières d'un changement graduel et ne prend en compte que les modifications effectives en termes de ressources et de production. Dans l'hypothèse d'un impact fort de la maladie, l'impact annuel estimé du virus de Schmallenberg variait de 23 à 43 euros par vache et de 19 à 37 euros par brebis. Dans l'hypothèse d'un impact faible, l'impact annuel était deux fois moindre chez les vaches et trois fois moindre chez les brebis que dans la première hypothèse. Ces impacts financiers représentent 0,6 % à 63 % de la marge brute en fonction du scénario choisi et du système de production. Les impacts du virus de Schmallenberg découlent principalement des coûts supplémentaires induits par l'achat et le maintien de génisses de remplacement et d'une baisse de la production de lait (vaches laitières), des pertes de veaux ou d'agneaux (bovins et ovins de boucherie), d'une baisse de la production de lait et du coût des agnelles de remplacement invendues (brebis laitières). L'utilisation de modèles intégrant les aspects économiques et les données de production a permis aux auteurs d'estimer le coût du virus de Schmallenberg malgré la pénurie de données, s'attaquant ainsi à une difficulté inhérente à la plupart des maladies émergentes. Cela leur a également permis d'effectuer une évaluation précise de l'impact sanitaire dans plusieurs systèmes de production, sur une durée courte. La possibilité d'extrapoler à partir de cette évaluation économique un scénario pour les années à venir dépend de la période d'immunité vis-à-vis de la maladie et de la durée des cycles de production.

El virus de Schmallenberg fue detectado por primera vez en 2011 en Alemania y ulteriormente en 2012 en Francia. Los autores describen un estudio en el que se simularon distintos sistemas de producción de rumiantes en Francia y se estimó, con análisis presupuestarios parciales, el coste económico que entrañaría para una explotación el virus de Schmallenberg en dos hipotéticas situaciones sanitarias (una situación con efectos profundos y otra con efectos leves). El análisis presupuestario parcial sirve para evaluar los efectos económicos de cambios graduales, e incluye únicamente aquellos recursos y aspectos de la producción que experimentarán cambios. En la hipótesis de efectos profundos, el impacto estimado de la infección por el virus de Schmallenberg oscilaba entre 23 y 43 euros anuales por vaca y entre 19 y 37 euros anuales por oveja hembra. La hipótesis de efectos leves deparaba importes de aproximadamente la mitad (en el caso de las vacas) o un tercio (en el de las ovejas). Este impacto económico representa del 0,6% al 63% del margen bruto, dependiendo de la hipótesis elegida y del sistema productivo de que se trate. Los efectos de la infección por el virus de Schmallenberg se concretan básicamente en: los costos suplementarios derivados de adquirir y criar vaquillas de sustitución y de obtener una menor producción de leche (vacas lecheras); las pérdidas de terneros o corderos (sistemas de bovino u ovino cárnicos); y los costos derivados de la menor producción de leche y de no vender las corderas de sustitución (ovejas lecheras). El uso de modelos que integran los factores productivos y económicos sirvió a los autores para estimar el costo del virus de Schmallenberg a pesar de la escasez de datos, que, por la propia naturaleza de las enfermedades emergentes, es una dificultad común a la mayoría de ellas. También les permitió evaluar con exactitud el impacto de la enfermedad en distintos sistemas productivos en un breve lapso de tiempo. La realización de extrapolaciones a partir de esta evaluación económica para pronosticar la situación en años venideros depende del periodo de inmunidad respecto de la enfermedad y de la duración de los ciclos productivos.

Economics for assisting policy-makers to take decisions about new and endemic diseases.

Animal health policy-makers are frequently faced with making decisions concerning the control and exclusion of diseases in livestock and wildlife populations. Economics is one of the tools they have to aid their decision-making. It can enable them to make objective decisions based on the expected costs and benefits of their policy. In addition, economics can help them determine both the distribution impact and the indirect impact of their decisions. However, economics is only one of many tools available to policy-makers, who also need to consider non-economic outcomes in their decision-making process. While there are sophisticated epidemic and economic (epinomic) models that are available to help evaluate complex problems, these models typically require extensive data and well-trained analysts to run and interpret their results. In addition, effective communication between analysts and policy-makers is important to ensure that results are clearly conveyed to the policy-makers. This may be facilitated by early and continued discussions between these two potentially disparate groups. If successfully performed and communicated, economic analyses may present valuable information to policy-makers, enabling them to not only better understand the economic implications of their policy, but also to communicate the policy to relevant stakeholders, further ensuring their likelihood of participating in the planned policy and hence increasing its likelihood of success.

Les responsables des politiques de santé animale sont souvent confrontés à la nécessité de prendre des décisions au sujet de la lutte à mener contre les maladies animales affectant les populations domestiques et sauvages ou de leur éradication. L'économie est l'un des outils d'aide à la décision à leur disposition. L'économie peut les aider à prendre des décisions objectives basées sur les coûts et les avantages attendus des politiques envisagées. Elle peut aussi les aider à déterminer l'impact de leurs décisions en termes de portée et d'effets indirects. Néanmoins, l'économie n'est qu'un des nombreux outils disponibles et les décideurs doivent également intégrer les résultats non économiques lors de leur processus décisionnel. Un certain nombre de modèles épidémiques et économiques (« épinomiques ¼) sophistiqués permettent d'évaluer des problèmes complexes ; ils nécessitent cependant un volume considérable de données ainsi que des analystes qualifiés pour les mettre en oeuvre et en interpréter les résultats. En outre, une communication efficace doit être mise en place entre les analystes et les décideurs afin de s'assurer que les résultats obtenus sont rapportés à ces derniers dans un langage clair. Ceci peut être facilité par des échanges précoces et permanents entre ces deux groupes potentiellement hétérogènes. Des analyses économiques bien réalisées et faisant l'objet d'une bonne communication fournissent aux décideurs des informations de qualité grâce auxquelles ils peuvent appréhender plus clairement les conséquences économiques de leurs politiques, mais aussi expliquer ces politiques aux principales parties prenantes, ce qui accroît la probabilité de les faire adhérer aux mesures planifiées et améliore d'autant les chances de succès.

Los planificadores de políticas zoosanitarias se ven con frecuencia en la tesitura de adoptar decisiones acerca del control y la exclusión de enfermedades en poblaciones de ganado o de animales salvajes. La economía es una de las herramientas en las que pueden apoyarse para ello, pues les ayuda a tomar decisiones objetivas basándose en los costos y beneficios previstos de determinada política. Además, la economía puede serles útil para determinar tanto el impacto distributivo como el impacto indirecto de sus decisiones. Sin embargo, la economía es solo una de las muchas herramientas de que disponen los planificadores, que en su proceso decisorio también deben tener en cuenta efectos de carácter no económico. Si bien para ayudarles a aprehender problemas complejos existen sofisticados modelos epidemiológicos y económicos (epinómicos), estos suelen requerir un gran número de datos, así como el concurso de analistas cualificados para aplicar los modelos e interpretar sus resultados. Asimismo, para que los resultados obtenidos por los analistas lleguen con claridad a los planificadores es importante que existan cauces eficaces de comunicación entre los primeros y los segundos, lo que puede verse facilitado si estos dos grupos, en potencia tan dispares, dialogan desde buen comienzo y de forma continua. Si se llevan a cabo y se comunican correctamente, los análisis económicos pueden ofrecer información útil a los planificadores, que les sirva no solo para aprehender mejor las consecuencias económicas de sus políticas, sino también para explicar determinada política a todos los interlocutores del sector, con lo cual estos serán más proclives a participar en dicha política y esta tendrá más probabilidades de éxito.

Identification, assessment and management of new and re-emerging animal-related risks: UK perspective.

Veterinary surveillance programmes aim to reduce the burden to the public, livestock and wider society posed by animal-related 'risks' (referred to as 'threats' later in the paper in line with a definition used by the European Food Safety Authority) including the reemergence of diseases believed absent or eradicated. To achieve this, it is important to have a systematic approach to identifying and dealing with such threats rapidly and effectively. This paper describes the transparent, systematic and auditable process used for identifying, assessing, escalating and prioritising new and re-emerging animal-related threats in the UK. This has been achieved through the establishment of a Veterinary Risk Group in late 2009.

Preparedness activities and research needs in addressing emerging infectious animal and zoonotic diseases.

Emerging infectious animal and zoonotic diseases can inflict significant losses on animal production and public health, and threaten the safety and security of the food system. Threat analysis (forecasting), which monitors the measurable risk indicators of disease emergence, should be in place before the emergence of any threat. Animal and public health authorities develop and regularly re-evaluate disease preparedness, response and recovery plans, based on the 'One Health' principle. These plans should include surveillance, biosecurity measures, communication channels and training for personnel. Scenarios for outbreaks of natural emerging infectious disease or bioterrorist events should be prepared and practised. National and international legislation should be regularly updated to provide a robust legal basis to manage outbreaks. Reference laboratories should have reliable and validated diagnostic tools for rapid, high-throughput testing. Strict biosafety, biocontainment and biosecurity control measures must be implemented in laboratories in order to prevent the accidental or malicious release of pathogens. The pharmaceutical industry should be incentivised to develop vaccines and/or antiviral drugs against disease outbreaks. Conventions between public authorities and the pharmaceutical industry should guarantee adequate stockpiling of the pharmaceuticals needed to control large-scale outbreaks. In the early phase of disease emergence (early warning), veterinarians and stakeholders play an important role in early detection at the farm level. Upon notification, veterinary authorities must take rapid response measures to limit disease spread. National and international short- and medium-term strategic research agendas should be developed, based on a comprehensive gap analysis and horizon scan. This planning will help to guide funding agencies and non-governmental organisations in their quest to support relevant research.

Les maladies animales infectieuses et les zoonoses émergentes ont un coût élevé pour la santé animale et la santé publique, en plus d'entraîner d'importantes pertes de production dans les élevages et de menacer la sécurité des systèmes de production alimentaire. Une analyse des menaces (anticipation), grâce au suivi d'indicateurs mesurables du risque d'émergence des maladies animales, devrait être en place avant que ces menaces n'émergent. Les autorités en charge de la santé animale et de la santé publique développent et réévaluent régulièrement des plans de préparation, de réponse et de récupération vis-à-vis de maladies, sur la base du principe « Une seule santé ¼. Ces plans doivent inclure des mesures de surveillance et de biosécurité, en plus de se doter de moyens de communication et de formation du personnel. Il convient d'élaborer et de mettre en pratique des scénarios d'émergence de maladies infectieuses, que celle-ci soit d'origine naturelle ou d'origine bioterroriste. Les législations nationales et internationales en la matière doivent être actualisées régulièrement afin de fournir un fondement juridique solide à la gestion des émergences. Les laboratoires de référence doivent disposer d'outils diagnostiques fiables et validés permettant la réalisation de tests rapides et à haut débit. Des mesures strictes de contrôle de la biosécurité, du bioconfinement et de la biosûreté doivent être appliquées dans les laboratoires pour prévenir toute libération accidentelle ou malintentionnée d'agents pathogènes. L'industrie pharmaceutique doit être incitée au développement de vaccins et d'antiviraux pour maîtriser les maladies émergentes. Les conventions entre les autorités publiques et l'industrie pharmaceutique doivent permettre de garantir la constitution de stocks suffisants de produits pharmaceutiques pour maîtriser les émergences de grande ampleur. Lors des premières phases d'émergence d'un foyer (alerte précoce), les vétérinaires et autres acteurs de terrain jouent un rôle important dans la détection précoce au niveau des élevages. Dès la notification d'un foyer, les autorités vétérinaires doivent réagir rapidement afin d'en limiter la propagation. Il convient de développer des programmes nationaux et internationaux de recherche stratégique à court et moyen terme, basés sur un examen exhaustif des lacunes et sur une analyse prospective complète. Cette planification contribuera à fournir aux agences de financement et aux organisations non gouvernementales des orientations leur permettant de déterminer quel soutien apporter à la recherche.

Las enfermedades animales infecciosas y las zoonosis emergentes pueden causar pérdidas cuantiosas en los ámbitos de la producción animal y la salud pública, además de amenazar la higiene y la seguridad de los sistemas alimentarios. El análisis (pronóstico) de amenazas, que consiste en seguir de cerca indicadores cuantificables del riesgo de aparición de enfermedades animales, es algo que debería estar implantado antes de que surja toda amenaza. Las autoridades sanitarias y zoosanitarias definen y periódicamente reevalúan planes de preparación, respuesta y recuperación frente a enfermedades, basándose para ello en el principio de «Una sola salud¼. Estos planes deben incluir labores de vigilancia y medidas de seguridad biológica, además de prever cauces de comunicación y actividades de formación del personal. También hay que elaborar y aplicar planes para hipotéticos brotes infecciosos, ya sean de origen natural u obra de bioterroristas. Asimismo, a fin de contar con sólidas bases jurídicas para combatir la aparición de enfermedades, es preciso actualizar periódicamente la legislación nacional e internacional. Los laboratorios de referencia deben contar con herramientas de diagnóstico fiables y validadas que permitan efectuar pruebas rápidas y de alto rendimiento. Es preciso implantar en los laboratorios estrictas medidas de control de la protección, la contención y la seguridad biológicas para evitar toda liberación accidental o malintencionada de patógenos. Hay que incentivar asimismo a la industria farmacéutica para que desarrolle vacunas y fármacos antivirales contra las enfermedades emergentes. Por otra parte, las autoridades públicas deben suscribir con el sector farmacéutico convenios que garanticen la constitución de reservas suficientes de los productos farmacéuticos requeridos para hacer frente a la aparición de brotes de grandes dimensiones. En las primeras fases de la aparición de un foco (alerta rápida), los veterinarios y otros interlocutores cumplen una importante función para detectar con prontitud la patología dentro de las explotaciones. Al recibir notificación, las autoridades veterinarias deben reaccionar con rapidez para poner coto a la propagación de la enfermedad. Por último, a partir de un análisis exhaustivo de las carencias existentes y de un estudio prospectivo completo, es preciso elaborar planes nacionales e internacionales de investigación estratégica a corto y medio plazo. Tal planificación ayudará a orientar a los organismos de financiación y las organizaciones no gubernamentales (ONG) en su labor de apoyo a las investigaciones de interés.

Peste des Petits Ruminants virus: an emerging threat to goat farming in Pakistan.

Pakistan at present is having more than 60 million head of goats, which consist of about 37 well-recognized breeds found in different regions of the country. Although the goat farming on commercial level is escalating in Pakistan, there are threats, which result this initiative into a loss. Among these threats, Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) outbreaks are causing huge economic damages. In this study, three outbreaks of PPR were confirmed at three different commercial farms in various regions of Punjab province and their economic impact on small ruminants farming was calculated. The disease started after 1-2 months of the establishment of these farms as the animals were purchased from different livestock markets. Disease started with sudden onset of respiratory and enteric clinical signs and spreads quickly. Disease caused mortality and morbidity of 10-15% and 20-40%, respectively, within a time period of 01-03 weeks. At these three farms, 116 of 365 animals exhibited the clinical disease, with an overall morbidity rate of 31.78%. A total of 43 animals died with mortality rate of 11.78% (43/365) causing a direct financial loss of $4300 (Pakistan Rupees 430,000/-), while the indirect cost due to treatment, loss of animal body condition, reduction in market value, increase veterinary services and labour was $7911 (Pak Rs. 791,100/-). Taken together, the results demonstrate that there is an urgent need to assess the economic impact of the disease throughout the country and to give proper emphasis for controlling PPR in sensitive regions where it is discouraging the investment in goat farming.

Social factors affecting seasonal variation in bovine trypanosomiasis on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: African Animal Trypanosomiasis (AAT) is a widespread disease of livestock in Nigeria and presents a major constraint to rural economic development. The Jos Plateau was considered free from tsetse flies and the trypanosomes they transmit due to its high altitude and this trypanosomiasis free status attracted large numbers of cattle-keeping pastoralists to the area. The Jos Plateau now plays a major role in the national cattle industry in Nigeria, accommodating approximately 7% of the national herd, supporting 300,000 pastoralists and over one million cattle. During the past two decades tsetse flies have invaded the Jos Plateau and animal trypanosomiasis has become a significant problem for livestock keepers. Here we investigate the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis as a re-emerging disease on the Plateau, examining the social factors that influence prevalence and seasonal variation of bovine trypanosomiasis. METHODS: In 2008 a longitudinal two-stage cluster survey was undertaken on the Jos Plateau. Cattle were sampled in the dry, early wet and late wet seasons. Parasite identification was undertaken using species-specific polymerase chain reactions to determine the prevalence and distribution of bovine trypanosomiasis. Participatory rural appraisal was also conducted to determine knowledge, attitudes and practices concerning animal husbandry and disease control. RESULTS: Significant seasonal variation between the dry season and late wet season was recorded across the Jos Plateau, consistent with expected variation in tsetse populations. However, marked seasonal variations were also observed at village level to create 3 distinct groups: Group 1 in which 50% of villages followed the general pattern of low prevalence in the dry season and high prevalence in the wet season; Group 2 in which 16.7% of villages showed no seasonal variation and Group 3 in which 33.3% of villages showed greater disease prevalence in the dry season than in the wet season. CONCLUSIONS: There was high seasonal variation at the village level determined by management as well as climatic factors. The growing influence of management factors on the epidemiology of trypanosomiasis highlights the impact of recent changes in land use and natural resource competition on animal husbandry decisions in the extensive pastoral production system.

Intervention strategies for emerging respiratory virus infections: policy and public health considerations.

Respiratory viruses have emerged and re-emerged in humans for hundreds of years. In the recent past avian and animal influenza viruses have caused human disease ranging from conjunctivitis to respiratory illnesses, including the 2009-10 A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Coronaviruses, human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and enteroviruses have also impacted humans globally. Since the likely public health impacts are common, plans and policies for intervention strategies can be developed, encompassing early detection through surveillance and diagnostics, as well as treatment and prevention through clinical and non-clinical interventions. The global comprehensiveness of these varies according to differing resources, competing health priorities and the causative agent, yet, irrespective of this, activities must be proportional to the threat. Pandemics and severe epidemics enable policies to be tested and gaps identified.

Current drivers and future directions of global livestock disease dynamics.

We review the global dynamics of livestock disease over the last two decades. Our imperfect ability to detect and report disease hinders assessment of trends, but we suggest that, although endemic diseases continue their historic decline in wealthy countries, poor countries experience static or deteriorating animal health and epidemic diseases show both regression and expansion. At a mesolevel, disease is changing in terms of space and host, which is illustrated by bluetongue, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus, and it is also emerging, as illustrated by highly pathogenic avian influenza and others. Major proximate drivers of change in disease dynamics include ecosystem change, ecosystem incursion, and movements of people and animals; underlying these are demographic change and an increasing demand for livestock products. We identify three trajectories of global disease dynamics: (i) the worried well in developed countries (demanding less risk while broadening the circle of moral concern), (ii) the intensifying and market-orientated systems of many developing countries, where highly complex disease patterns create hot spots for disease shifts, and (iii) the neglected cold spots in poor countries, where rapid change in disease dynamics is less likely but smallholders and pastoralists continue to struggle with largely preventable and curable livestock diseases.

Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

Participatory probabilistic assessment of the risk to human health associated with cryptosporidiosis from urban dairying in Dagoretti, Nairobi, Kenya.

We carried out a participatory risk assessment to estimate the risk (negative consequences and their likelihood) from zoonotic Cryptosporidium originating in dairy farms in urban Dagoretti, Nairobi to dairy farm households and their neighbours. We selected 20 households at high risk for Cryptosporidium from a larger sample of 300 dairy households in Dagoretti based on risk factors present. We then conducted a participatory mapping of the flow of the hazard from its origin (cattle) to human potential victims. This showed three main exposure pathways (food and water borne, occupational and recreational). This was used to develop a fault tree model which we parameterised using information from the study and literature. A stochastic simulation was used to estimate the probability of exposure to zoonotic cryptosporidiosis originating from urban dairying. Around 6 % of environmental samples were positive for Cryptosporidium. Probability of exposure to Cryptosporidium from dairy cattle ranged from 0.0055 for people with clinical acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in non-dairy households to 0.0102 for children under 5 years from dairy households. Most of the estimated health burden was born by children. Although dairy cattle are the source of Cryptosporidium, the model suggests consumption of vegetables is a greater source of risk than consumption of milk. In conclusion, by combining participatory methods with quantitative microbial risk assessment, we were able to rapidly, and with appropriate 'imprecision', investigate health risk to communities from Cryptosporidium and identify the most vulnerable groups and the most risky practices.