Assessment of the Hemotek® system for the in vitro feeding of field-collected Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in South Africa.

The optimising and standardisation of in vitro blood feeding protocols for field-collected Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) will be of essence for the comparison of the vector competencies of various populations of viruses of veterinary importance and the establishment of laboratory colonies of putative vector species. A custom-made feeding chamber to accommodate the small size of Culicoides imicola Kieffer was designed for the commercially available Hemotek® system and compared to existing membrane and cotton pledge feeding methods. High feeding rates coupled to higher mean blood meal volume than that of the existing OVI device indicated that the Hemotek system will be suitable for the feeding of field-collected Culicoides. The Hemotek system was subsequently used to identify factors that may affect feeding success in the laboratory. Evaluated factors were the source (host) and temperature of the blood meal, time of the day of feeding, the position of the blood reservoir in relation to the midges and exposure time to the blood. While only feeding orientation and the temperature of the blood source seems to significantly affect the feeding rate, all the factors did influence the volume of blood consumed.

Real-time decision-making during emergency disease outbreaks.

In the event of a new infectious disease outbreak, mathematical and simulation models are commonly used to inform policy by evaluating which control strategies will minimize the impact of the epidemic. In the early stages of such outbreaks, substantial parameter uncertainty may limit the ability of models to provide accurate predictions, and policymakers do not have the luxury of waiting for data to alleviate this state of uncertainty. For policymakers, however, it is the selection of the optimal control intervention in the face of uncertainty, rather than accuracy of model predictions, that is the measure of success that counts. We simulate the process of real-time decision-making by fitting an epidemic model to observed, spatially-explicit, infection data at weekly intervals throughout two historical outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, UK in 2001 and Miyazaki, Japan in 2010, and compare forward simulations of the impact of switching to an alternative control intervention at the time point in question. These are compared to policy recommendations generated in hindsight using data from the entire outbreak, thereby comparing the best we could have done at the time with the best we could have done in retrospect. Our results show that the control policy that would have been chosen using all the data is also identified from an early stage in an outbreak using only the available data, despite high variability in projections of epidemic size. Critically, we find that it is an improved understanding of the locations of infected farms, rather than improved estimates of transmission parameters, that drives improved prediction of the relative performance of control interventions. However, the ability to estimate undetected infectious premises is a function of uncertainty in the transmission parameters. Here, we demonstrate the need for both real-time model fitting and generating projections to evaluate alternative control interventions throughout an outbreak. Our results highlight the use of using models at outbreak onset to inform policy and the importance of state-dependent interventions that adapt in response to additional information throughout an outbreak.

A financial cost-benefit analysis of eradicating virulent footrot.

In 2008, virulent footrot was detected in sheep in south-west Norway. Footrot is caused by Dichelobacter nodosus, and the outbreak was linked to live sheep imported from Denmark in 2005. A large-scale program for eradicating the disease was implemented as a joint industry and governmental driven eradication project in the years 2008-2014, and continued with surveillance and control measures by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority from 2015. The cost of the eradication program including surveillance and control measures until 2032 was assumed to reach approximately €10.8 million (NOK 90 million). A financial cost-benefit analysis, comparing costs in the eradication program with costs in two simulated scenarios, was carried out. In the scenarios, designated ModerateSpread (baseline) and SlowSpread, it was assumed that the sheep farmers would undertake some voluntary measures on their own that would slow the spread of the disease. The program obtained a positive NPV after approximately 12 years. In a stochastic analysis, the probabilities of a positive NPV were estimated to 1.000 and to 0.648 after 15 years and to 0.378 and 0.016 after ten years, for the ModerateSpread and SlowSpread scenarios respectively. A rapid start-up of the program soon after the detection of the disease was considered crucial for the economic success as the disease would have become more widespread and probably raised the costs considerably at a later start-up.

Costs and benefits of group living with disease: a case study of pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis).

Group living facilitates pathogen transmission among social hosts, yet temporally stable host social organizations can actually limit transmission of some pathogens. When there are few between-subpopulation contacts for the duration of a disease event, transmission becomes localized to subpopulations. The number of per capita infectious contacts approaches the subpopulation size as pathogen infectiousness increases. Here, we illustrate that this is the case during epidemics of highly infectious pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis). We classified individually marked bighorn ewes into disjoint seasonal subpopulations, and decomposed the variance in lamb survival to weaning into components associated with individual ewes, subpopulations, populations and years. During epidemics, lamb survival varied substantially more between ewe-subpopulations than across populations or years, suggesting localized pathogen transmission. This pattern of lamb survival was not observed during years when disease was absent. Additionally, group sizes in ewe-subpopulations were independent of population size, but the number of ewe-subpopulations increased with population size. Consequently, although one might reasonably assume that force of infection for this highly communicable disease scales with population size, in fact, host social behaviour modulates transmission such that disease is frequency-dependent within populations, and some groups remain protected during epidemic events.

A spatial risk assessment of bighorn sheep extirpation by grazing domestic sheep on public lands.

Bighorn sheep currently occupy just 30% of their historic distribution, and persist in populations less than 5% as abundant overall as their early 19th century counterparts. Present-day recovery of bighorn sheep populations is in large part limited by periodic outbreaks of respiratory disease, which can be transmitted to bighorn sheep via contact with domestic sheep grazing in their vicinity. In order to assess the viability of bighorn sheep populations on the Payette National Forest (PNF) under several alternative proposals for domestic sheep grazing, we developed a series of interlinked models. Using telemetry and habitat data, we characterized herd home ranges and foray movements of bighorn sheep from their home ranges. Combining foray model movement estimates with known domestic sheep grazing areas (allotments), a Risk of Contact Model estimated bighorn sheep contact rates with domestic sheep allotments. Finally, we used demographic and epidemiologic data to construct population and disease transmission models (Disease Model), which we used to estimate bighorn sheep persistence under each alternative grazing scenario. Depending on the probability of disease transmission following interspecies contact, extirpation probabilities for the seven bighorn sheep herds examined here ranged from 20% to 100%. The Disease Model allowed us to assess the probabilities that varied domestic sheep management scenarios would support persistent populations of free-ranging bighorn sheep.

Development of a Taenia ovis transmission model and an assessment of control strategies.

The metacestode stage of the tapeworm, Taenia ovis, causes cystic lesions in the skeletal and cardiac muscle of sheep, which can result in the condemnation of the entire carcass. In recent years, Canadian farms have seen a marked increase in the number of condemnations due to T. ovis. Mathematical transmission models provide a useful tool for predicting parasite transmission and for evaluating the efficacy of potential control options. To date, no model has been developed exclusively for T. ovis. In the work described here, a compartmental, deterministic transmission model was developed to better understand the transmission dynamics of T. ovis on Canadian sheep farms. The model was intended to be practical, and represent the transmission of infection burdens in lambs that result in carcass condemnation, or transmission to canids. All transmission parameters were obtained from the literature or, when unavailable, expert opinion. The model incorporated each stage of the parasite lifecycle using the most probable transmission route on Canadian sheep farms; including definitive host (guard dogs), intermediate host (pastured lambs), and environment. Based on literature, the model performed as expected, and provided a reasonable estimate of parasite prevalence in lambs. In addition, modeling allowed the efficacy of potential control options to be evaluated and compared. Model simulations suggested that infection risk in market lambs could be eliminated through the regular treatment of guardian dogs every fifth week with an appropriate cestocide, or through eliminating carcass consumption by guardian dogs.

Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain.

This paper uses statistical and mathematical models to examine the potential impact of within-farm transmission dynamics on the spread of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Great Britain. We partly parameterize a simple within farm transmission model using data from experimental studies of FMD pathogenesis, embed this model within an existing between-farm transmission model, and then estimate unknown parameters (such as the species-specific within-farm reproduction number) from the 2001 epidemic case data using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. If the probability of detecting an infected premises depends on farm size and species mix then the within-farm species specific basic reproduction ratios for baseline models are estimated to be 21 (16, 25) and 14 (10, 19) for cattle and sheep, respectively. Alternatively, if detection is independent of farm size, then the corresponding estimates are 49 (41, 61) and 10 (1.4, 21). Both model variants predict that the average fraction of total farm infectiousness accumulated prior to detection of infection on an IP is about 30-50% in cattle or mixed farms. The corresponding estimate for sheep farms depended more on the detection model, being 65-80% if detection was linked to the farms' characteristics, but only 25% if not. We highlighted evidence which reinforces the role of within-farm dynamics in contributing to the long tail of the 2001 epidemic.

Non-exponential tolerance to infection in epidemic systems--modeling, inference, and assessment.

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases have been traditionally described through a time-inhomogeneous Poisson process, thus assuming exponentially distributed levels of disease tolerance following the Sellke construction. Here we focus on a generalization using Weibull individual tolerance thresholds under the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed class of models which is widely employed in epidemics. Applications with experimental foot-and-mouth disease and historical smallpox data are discussed, and simulation results are presented. Inference is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods following a Bayesian approach. Model evaluation is performed, where the adequacy of the models is assessed using methodology based on the properties of Bayesian latent residuals, and comparison between 2 candidate models is also considered using a latent likelihood ratio-type test that avoids problems encountered with relevant methods based on Bayes factors.

The human-animal interface of domestic livestock management and production and its relationship to brucellosis in the country of Georgia 2010: a rapid assessment analysis.

CONTEXT: Brucellosis is endemic in the country of Georgia, with the highest incidence of disease in the east of Georgia, in the Kakheti region--which is also home to the majority of sheep and a large portion of the national cattle herd (two species that are natural hosts of zoonotic Brucella spp.). OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to understand the ruminant livestock management and dairy production as well as the sociological factors in order to relate it to the disease ecology of brucellosis and to understand the framework that contributes too brucellosis transmission in the region. METHODS: In 2010, we examined the aspects of livestock management and production through the use of a semi-structured questionnaire that was administered to 198 villagers and 41 key informants (physicians, veterinarians, dairy production specialists, and laboratory personnel) who were identified by convenience sampling. Results were primarily qualitative, but some were quantified to reveal trends and compared with non-parametric tests. RESULTS: We found that animals are managed at the village level. Male villagers take turns shepherding and herding on both summer pastures (highlands) and winter pastures (lowlands or around the village). Men also do all the sheep-dairy production. Women care for milk cattle as well as make the dairy products from cow milk. Of the households that own livestock, 28% own sheep (50 per flock) and 96% own cattle (3 per herd). The northern-most part of Kakheti (Akhmeta) has the widest distribution of its cheese; the guda cheese from this area is sold all over Kakheti and central Georgia. Typically, cheese is aged in 20% brine for 3d (white cheeses) or 21d (guda cheeses). In addition, raw milk is used for cheese production and heating the milk is believed to decrease the quality of the final product. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions at the animal level will be best carried out in the fall when animals return to winter pastures. Under-employed private veterinarians would be available for extension work and contact with local villagers. Control will be best achieved at the animal level because the local people have a social and cultural resistance to the use of heated or pasteurized milk for cheese production.

Prospects of control and eradication of capripox from the Indian subcontinent: a perspective.

Sheeppox and goatpox, two endemic capripox infections in India, pose a significant economic threat to small ruminant productivity in the subcontinent. Vaccination of all susceptible sheep and goats is the feasible and sustainable means of control. Availability of effective live attenuated vaccines that are inherently thermostable and development of improved diagnostics provide the opportunities to initiate effective control measures for capripox. All animals older than 4 months can be vaccinated with the current homologous vaccines using a single vaccination by intradermal or subcutaneous routes. The success of the control program needs to be monitored by active surveillance particularly for the presence of virus, as sero-monitoring does not enable the differentiation of infection and vaccination. And also the sero-conversion following capripox vaccination is not detectable enough by the available tools. Sustained control efforts call for socio-economic and political stability, adequate infrastructure and logistic support to store and transport vaccines for reaching out vaccines to the remote end users. Availability of veterinary services, improved extension services for increased awareness among farmers, contribute significantly to the control campaigns. Poor vaccination coverage and in-adequate infrastructure in major parts of the country are some of the major elements that come in the way of effective implementation of building herd immunity through immunization.

A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description.

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.

A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth-disease: II. Model results and policy implications.

A dynamic optimization model was used to search for optimal strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the three-county region in the Central Valley of California. The model minimized total regional epidemic cost by choosing the levels of depopulation of diagnosed herds, preemptive depopulation, and vaccination. Impacts of limited carcass disposal capacity and vaccination were also examined, and the shadow value, the implicit value of each capacity, was estimated. The model found that to control FMD in the region, (1) preemptive depopulation was not optimal, (2) vaccination, if allowed, was optimal, reducing total cost by 3-7%, (3) increased vaccination capacity reduced total cost up to US$119 per dose, (4) increased carcass disposal capacity reduced total cost by US$9000-59,400 per head with and without vaccination, respectively, and (5) dairy operations should be given preferential attention in allocating limited control resources.

Assessing the effect of interventions on the risk of cattle and sheep carrying Escherichia coli O157:H7 to the abattoir using a stochastic model.

Escherichia coli O157:H7 persists in being a threat to food safety. The mechanisms behind the spread of E. coli O157:H7 on the farm are complex and poorly understood. The objective of this study was to apply a Monte Carlo model, constructed to simulate the propagation of E. coli O157:H7 in cattle and sheep on the farm, to both test the effect of different interventions on the risk of animals carrying E. coli O157:H7 to the abattoir and to develop understanding of the underlying processes, including the identification of areas that could benefit from further research. An overview of the model including key assumptions is given. The output statistics from batches of 100 runs of the model were collected. From the model output, a cumulative frequency distribution of the prevalence and specific shedding level for the groups of cattle or sheep being sent to the abattoir were generated. Stochastic dominance was used to compare the results of the model outputs. Using the shorthand that "risk" means the likelihood of carrying E. coli O157:H7 to the abattoir, key conclusions from the study included: mixing sheep and cattle increases the risk in both groups; merging groups of animals of the same species into larger groups increases the risk substantially; increasing stocking density increases the risk independently of group size; decreasing the group size decreases the E. coli O157:H7 prevalence independently of stocking density; a very high level of barn hygiene reduces the risk; a shorter time between spreading farmyard manure and grazing and an increased background level of E. coli O157:H7 in the model increases the risk. The background level could be influenced by the presence of wild animals carrying the organism. The parameters to which the model is most sensitive are those related to transmission from grass and enclosures to animals, pathogen survival on grass, in slurry and in barns and contact between animals.

Benefit-cost analysis of vaccination and preemptive slaughter as a means of eradicating foot-and-mouth disease.

OBJECTIVE: To assess relative costs and benefits of vaccination and preemptive herd slaughter to control transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV). SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Direct costs associated with indemnity, slaughter, cleaning and disinfecting livestock premises, and vaccination were compared for various eradication strategies. Additional cost, total program cost, net benefit, and benefit-cost value (B/C) for each supplemental strategy were estimated, based in part on results of published model simulations for FMD. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Mean herd indemnity payments were estimated to be dollars 2.6 million and dollars 110,359 for dairy and nondairy herds, respectively. Cost to clean and disinfect livestock premises ranged from dollars 18,062 to dollars 60,205. Mean vaccination cost was dollars 2,960/herd. Total eradication cost ranged from dollars 61 million to dollars 551 million. All supplemental strategies involving use of vaccination were economically efficient (B/C range, 5.0 to 10.1) and feasible, whereas supplemental strategies involving use of slaughter programs were not economically efficient (B-C, 0.05 to 0.8) or feasible. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Vaccination with a highly efficacious vaccine may be a cost-effective strategy for control of FMD if vaccinated animals are not subsequently slaughtered and there is no future adverse economic impact, such as trade restrictions. Although less preferable than the baseline eradication program, selective slaughter of highest-risk herds was preferable to other preemptive slaughter strategies. However, indirect costs can be expected to contribute substantially more than direct costs to the total cost of eradication programs.

Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus. SAMPLE POPULATION: 2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. PROCEDURE: Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies. RESULTS: The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The FMD model represents a tool for use in planning biosecurity and emergency-response programs and in comparing potential benefits of various strategies for control and eradication of FMD appropriate for specific populations.

Human health benefits from livestock vaccination for brucellosis: case study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic benefit, cost-effectiveness, and distribution of benefit of improving human health in Mongolia through the control of brucellosis by mass vaccination of livestock. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness and economic benefit for human society and the agricultural sector of mass vaccination against brucellosis was modelled. The intervention consisted of a planned 10-year livestock mass vaccination campaign using Rev-1 livestock vaccine for small ruminants and S19 livestock vaccine for cattle. Cost-effectiveness, expressed as cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, was the primary outcome. FINDINGS: In a scenario of 52% reduction of brucellosis transmission between animals achieved by mass vaccination, a total of 49,027 DALYs could be averted. Estimated intervention costs were US$ 8.3 million, and the overall benefit was US$ 26.6 million. This results in a net present value of US$ 18.3 million and an average benefit-cost ratio for society of 3.2 (2.27-4.37). If the costs of the intervention were shared between the sectors in proportion to the benefit to each, the public health sector would contribute 11%, which gives a cost-effectiveness of US$ 19.1 per DALY averted (95% confidence interval 5.3-486.8). If private economic gain because of improved human health was included, the health sector should contribute 42% to the intervention costs and the cost-effectiveness would decrease to US$ 71.4 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION: If the costs of vaccination of livestock against brucellosis were allocated to all sectors in proportion to the benefits, the intervention might be profitable and cost effective for the agricultural and health sectors.

Hydatidosis: a comprehensive view of the Sardinian case.

In Sardinia the close association of sheep, dogs and humans still exists in some parts of the region, so that ideal conditions persist for the perpetuation of the parasite's life cycle. Two factors contribute to the spread of the disease: the practice of slaughtering sheep at home and the proliferation of dogs, mainly strays. This paper reviews the epidemiological picture and the economic consequences of the disease in man and livestock, strongly suggesting that this endemic disease is a major public health problem.

Human behaviour and the ethics of coercion.

There is an assumption that legislation against unhealthy behaviour would be unethical, or at best unenforceable and counterproductive. However, the ethics of coercion depend on the manner in which such coercion is introduced, the essential precondition being wide, favourable community consensus. Two recent Australian examples have been the Victorian seat-belt legislation and the Tasmanian hydatid campaign. Hydatid control in Tasmania began with a voluntary campaign in the farming community which led to a popular demand for government intervention. In response to community pressure, the State Department of Agriculture introduced control measures with a stepwise increase in coercion that began with a voluntary dog-testing programme, and proceeded to a compulsory test and later to the quarantine of infected dogs. Ultimately, quarantine was extended to premises with a higher-than-average residual prevalence in sheep. Today, hydatid disease has almost disappeared in livestock. As no new human case of hydatid disease has been diagnosed in a person of under 10 years of age since 1972, or in one of under 20 years of age since 1976, human infection probably ceased by 1972. Legislation today could control the composition of processed food (for example, the salt content), or establish compulsory testing for human immunodeficiency virus antibodies. The necessary consensus could be the specific objective of health education during a voluntary phase.