Understanding if the reward is worth the influenza risk: The true cost of showing pigs.

Influenza A virus transmission between pigs and humans has been reported periodically worldwide, and spillover events across the animal-human species barrier could lead to the next influenza pandemic. Swine exhibitions serve as a unique interface conducive to zoonotic disease transmission due to extensive commingling of pigs and humans for prolonged periods of time. The majority of zoonotic influenza A virus transmission in the United States has been linked to swine exhibitions, leading some to suggest additional controls for influenza A virus at the swine-human interface. Determining the value of the exhibition swine industry and gauging the financial impacts influenza A virus outbreaks could have on society, helps to inform adoption decisions of mitigation recommendations. This study estimates the total value of the exhibition swine industry in the United States and calculates the predicted costs of the most extreme mitigation strategy, cancelling swine exhibitions to reduce zoonotic influenza A virus transmission. Mixed methods, including a survey, were used to collect data and inform the study model. We estimated that the direct economic impact of the exhibition swine sector in 2018 was $1.2 billion. If pig shows were to be cancelled for one year, the estimated direct economic impact would be $357.1 million. A permanent, > 3-year ban on swine exhibitions would result in a $665 million economic impact, which is a 45% reduction from baseline. The direct economic impact of cancelling the swine show circuit could not be determined, as youth exhibitors may pursue alternative activities that cannot be precisely accounted for. However, the estimated loss to the swine industry justifies seeking enhanced mitigation to prevent disease transmission. Moreover, economic losses secondary to exhibition cancellations may explain hesitancy to participate in active influenza A virus surveillance efforts.

Epidemiological investigation of ASF outbreaks in Kerala (India): detection, source tracing and economic implications.

This study investigates suspected African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in two villages of Kannur district in Kerala, India, with the aim of identifying the causative agent and its genotype, the source of infection, and estimating the economic losses due to the outbreaks. Clinically, the disease was acute with high mortality, while gross pathology was characterized by widespread haemorrhages in various organs, especially the spleen, which was dark, enlarged and had friable cut surfaces with diffuse haemorrhages. Notably, histopathological examination revealed multifocal, diffuse haemorrhages in the splenic parenchyma and lymphoid depletion accompanied by lymphoid cell necrosis. The clinico-pathological observations were suggestive of ASF, which was confirmed by PCR. The source of outbreak was identified as swill and it was a likely point source infection as revealed by epidemic curve analysis. The phylogenetic analysis of p72 gene identified the ASFV in the current outbreak as genotype-II and IGR II variant consistent with ASFVs detected in India thus far. However, the sequence analysis of the Central Variable Region (CVR) of the B602L gene showed that the ASFVs circulating in Kerala (South India) formed a separate clade along with those found in Mizoram (North East India), while ASFVs circulating in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states of India grouped in to different clade. This study represents the first investigation of ASF outbreak in South India, establishing the genetic relatedness of the ASFV circulating in this region with that in other parts of the country. The study also underscores the utility of the CVR of the B602L gene in genetically characterizing highly similar Genotype II ASFVs to understand the spread of ASF within the country.

Easy and reliable assessment of the prevalence of porcine post-weaning diarrhoea.

Post-weaning diarrhoea is a condition of increasing importance due to recent restrictions and bans on the preventive use of antimicrobials and medicinal zinc oxide. For various purposes, it is valuable to monitor the occurrence of post-weaning diarrhoea. The aim of this paper was to propose a protocol for easy and reliable assessment of the prevalence of post-weaning diarrhoea within a section of pigs as an alternative to clinical examination of a random sample of pigs. Two datasets were collected in two different observational field investigations, including more than 4000 individual clinical examinations of newly weaned pigs. First we identified a clinical marker for post-weaning diarrhoea. Second, we drew samples by simulation from our two dataset using different simplified sampling strategies and compared these to conventional random sampling strategies. The prediction error for estimates of the diarrhoea prevalence within a section was compared for the different sampling strategies. The study showed that pigs with diarrhoea had an increased risk of displaying diarrheic soiling of the hind part as well as dull, long, and bristly hair coat, and possibly also hollow flanks and a suboptimal body condition score. Diarrheic soiling of the hind part was the best clinical predictor of diarrhoea; our best estimate of the diagnostic sensitivity was 76.1% (95% credible interval: 72.0, 79.8), and the specificity was 97.1% (95% credible interval: 96.5 0.97.7). Diarrheic soiling of the hind is only a valid clinical predictor of diarrhoea for the first 14 days after insertion into the nursery unit. The precision and accuracy of prevalence estimates were similar for haphazard sampling compared to random sampling of the pigs. Likewise, sampling from a restricted number of pens produced prediction errors similar to sampling across all pens. Yet, the study had limitations regarding sample sizes, and furthermore it is difficult to provide certainty for absence of effects. We recommend sampling pigs haphazardly within at least three randomly selected pens for post-weaning diarrhoea prevalence surveys in order to easily obtain a reliable prevalence estimate. Based on our findings, we conclude the paper by proposing a simple four-step protocol for surveys of the within-section prevalence of post-weaning diarrhoea.

Salmonella assessment along the Spanish food chain: Likelihood of Salmonella occurrence in poultry and pig products is maintained across the food chain stages.

Salmonellosis is one of the most important foodborne diseases worldwide, including the European Union. Despite the One Health approach measures for risk assessment and risk management implemented by the European Union, the occurrence of disease and disease outbreaks remains high (e.g. 694 outbreaks were reported in 2020), highlighting the need of new assessment methods. Herein we applied machine learning using the random forests method to evaluate and identify key points regarding the occurrence of Salmonella sp. along the Spanish food chain during 2015-2020, using data provided by the Spanish Agency for Food Safety and Nutrition. We compared the role of the three categorical variables [product (20 categories), region (18 categories) and stage (11 categories)]. Salmonella presence was influenced by the three explanatory variables considered: first by product, followed by region and stage. The most determinant product for Salmonella probability was 'meat', while the most important stage was 'slaughterhouse'. Specifically, the highest values were found in pig and poultry meats. In these products, the Salmonella probability was high at the early and final stages of the food chain, although not at intermediate stages. The presence of Salmonella in the final stages (retail) of the food chain is of concern, as it can cause human cases of salmonellosis, including outbreaks. This study demonstrates the utility of the random forest method to identify key points and evaluate the control efforts. We recommend improving the surveillance and control measures, especially in the product and stages pointed out by our analysis, and enhancing the data collection harmonization among the different autonomous communities.

Assessment of control measures against livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a farrow-to-finish pig herd using infectious disease modelling.

Pigs are considered to be the main reservoir for livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA), which is a zoonotic opportunistic pathogen. As LA-MRSA is an occupational hazard, there is an incentive to control its spread in pig herds. Currently, knowledge about effective control measures which do not require culling the whole herd are limited, and the control strategies against LA-MRSA vary between countries. This study uses a stochastic compartment model to simulate possible control measures for LA-MRSA in a farrow-to-finish pig herd. The aims of the study were to (1) extend a previously published disease spread model with additional management and control measures; (2) use the extended model to study the effect of the individual LA-MRSA control measures on the within-herd LA-MRSA prevalence; (3) evaluate the effect of control measures when they are implemented in combinations. From the individual control measures tested in the study, thorough cleaning was found to be most effective in reducing the LA-MRSA prevalence in the herd. When the different control measures were combined, cleaning together with disease surveillance had the largest impact on reducing the LA-MRSA and a higher chance of causing disease elimination. The results of the study showed that achieving disease elimination once LA-MRSA had been introduced in the herd was challenging but was more likely when control measures were introduced early during the outbreak. This emphasises the importance of early detection of the pathogen and subsequent rapid implementation of LA-MRSA control measures.

Virulence assessment of four Glaesserella parasuis strains isolated in Liaoning province of China.

Glaesserella parasuis (G. parasuis) is a part of the normal upper respiratory microbiota of healthy swine. In many studies, the serovars 1, 4, 5, and 12 of G. parasuis are considered to be highly virulent and its serovars 3, 6, 7, 9, and 11 are considered to be non-virulent. Until now, researchers have found that non-virulent strains of G. parasuis cause an increasing number of diseases. However, little is known concerning why non-virulent strains cause disease with the virulence changes. In present study, four G. parasuis strains were evaluated for their cytotoxicity property, which aims to compare their virulence. The results showed that highly virulent strains XX0306 and CY1201, as well as, non-virulent strains HLD0115 and YK1603 caused a series of pathological changes, increased lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release, and decreased cell activity. In addition, compared to the control group, both highly and non-virulent strains showed similar trends, demonstrating that the method of classifying the virulence of G. parasuis based on its serovar is worth further deliberation. Hence, we investigated the adhesion capacity and invasion rate of G. parasuis, the results indicated that XX0306 and HLD0115 had the strongest adhesion and invasion ability, which contradicts the classification of the virulence of G. parasuis based on its serovar. The apoptosis degree induced by highly virulent strains was more intensive than non-virulent strains, as measured by annexin V and propidium iodide (PI) double staining. Through testing the expression of apoptosis-related genes Bcl-2 and Bax, we found highly virulent strains induced apoptosis by inhibiting the expression of Bcl-2.

Fuzzy model for quantitative assessment of the epidemic risk of African Swine Fever within Australia.

African Swine Fever (ASF) has spread rapidly across different continents since 2007 and caused huge biosecurity threats and economic losses. Establishing an effective risk assessment model is of great importance for ASF prevention, especially for those ASF-free countries such as Australia. With a vast territory and an economy heavily relying on primary industry, Australia faces a threat from the spread of ASF. Although ordinary quarantine measures have been well-performed throughout Australia, there is still a need to develop an effective risk assessment model to understand the spread of ASF due to the strong transmission ability of ASF. In this paper, via a comprehensive literature review, and analyzing the transmission factors of ASF, we provide a fuzzy model to assess the epidemic risk of Australian states and territories, under the assumption that ASF has entered Australia. As demonstrated in this work, although the pandemic risk of ASF in Australia is relatively low, there is a risk of irregular and scattered outbreaks, with Victoria (VIC) and New South Wales (NSW) - Australia Capital Territory (NSW-ACT) showed the highest risk. The reliability of this model was also systematically tested by a conjoint analysis model. To our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively analyze the ASF epidemic risk in a country using fuzzy modeling. This work can provide an understanding of the risk ASF transmission within Australia based on the fuzzy modeling, the same methodology can also provide insights and useful information for the establishment of fuzzy models to perform the ASF risk assessment for other countries.

Antigenic Characterization and Pandemic Risk Assessment of North American H1 Influenza A Viruses Circulating in Swine.

The first pandemic of the 21st century was caused by an H1N1 influenza A virus (IAV) introduced from pigs into humans, highlighting the importance of swine as reservoirs for pandemic viruses. Two major lineages of swine H1 circulate in North America: the 1A classical swine lineage (including that of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic) and the 1B human seasonal-like lineage. Here, we investigated the evolution of these H1 IAV lineages in North American swine and their potential pandemic risk. We assessed the antigenic distance between the HA of representative swine H1 and human seasonal vaccine strains (1978 to 2015) in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays using a panel of monovalent antisera raised in pigs. Antigenic cross-reactivity varied by strain but was associated with genetic distance. Generally, the swine 1A lineage viruses that seeded the 2009 H1 pandemic were antigenically most similar to the H1 pandemic vaccine strains, with the exception of viruses in the genetic clade 1A.1.1.3, which had a two-amino acid deletion mutation near the receptor-binding site, which dramatically reduced antibody recognition. The swine 1B lineage strains, which arose from previously circulating (pre-2009 pandemic) human seasonal viruses, were more antigenically similar to pre-2009 human seasonal H1 vaccine viruses than post-2009 strains. Human population immunity was measured by cross-reactivity in HI assays to representative swine H1 strains. There was a broad range of titers against each swine strain that was not associated with age, sex, or location. However, there was almost no cross-reactivity in human sera to the 1A.1.1.3 and 1B.2.1 genetic clades of swine viruses, and the 1A.1.1.3 and 1B.2.1 clades were also the most antigenically distant to the human vaccine strains. Our data demonstrate that the antigenic distances of representative swine strains from human vaccine strains represent an important part of the rational assessment of swine IAV for zoonotic risk research and pandemic preparedness prioritization. IMPORTANCE Human H1 influenza A viruses (IAV) spread to pigs in North America, resulting in a sustained circulation of two major groups of H1 viruses in swine. We quantified the genetic diversity of H1 in swine and measured antigenic phenotypes. We demonstrated that the swine H1 lineages were significantly different from the human vaccine strains and that this antigenic dissimilarity increased over time as the viruses evolved in swine. Pandemic preparedness vaccine strains for human vaccines also demonstrated a loss in similarity with contemporary swine strains. Human sera revealed a range of responses to swine IAV, including two groups of viruses with little to no immunity. The surveillance and risk assessment of IAV diversity in pig populations are essential to detect strains with reduced immunity in humans and provide critical information for pandemic preparedness.

Assessment of seasonality of rotavirus PCR detection in swine from Ontario and Quebec between 2016-2020 using submissions to a diagnostic laboratory.

The goal of this study was to determine if seasonality of rotavirus A, B, and C infection is present in Ontario and Quebec swine herds by investigating submissions to a diagnostic laboratory. Samples (N = 1557) within 755 case submissions from Canadian swine herds between 2016 and 2020 were tested for rotaviruses A, B, and C using a real-time polymerase-chain reaction assay and described. Data from Ontario and Quebec were additionally analyzed using boxplots, 6-week rolling averages, time-series decomposition, and negative binomial regression models. Percentage positivity of submissions for rotaviruses A, B, and C were discovered to be highest in nursery/weaner (n = 100, 94.0%, 60.0%, 80.0%) and grower/finisher (n = 13, 84.6%, 46.2%, 61.5%) pigs and lowest in gilt/sow (n = 45, 68.9%, 20.0%, 40.0%) and suckling pigs (n = 102, 67.6%, 10.8%, 38.2%), respectively. The most common combination of rotavirus at the sample level was AC (n = 252, 17%) and ABC (n = 175, 23.2%) at the submission level. Percent positivity for rotavirus A, B, and C across all Canadian provinces included in the study were 69.9%, 32.6%, and 53.1%, respectively. Descriptive analysis suggested little to no evidence of seasonal patterns, although a spike in November was seen in the monthly total submissions and monthly total positive submissions. Statistically, the overall month effect could not be identified as statistically significant (P > 0.05) for any of the evaluated submission counts. Overall, there was no evidence supporting seasonality of rotavirus within Ontario and Quebec swine herds between 2016 and 2020.

Le but de cette étude était de déterminer si la saisonnalité de l'infection à rotavirus A, B et C est présente dans les troupeaux de porcs de l'Ontario et du Québec en examinant les soumissions à un laboratoire de diagnostic. Des échantillons (N = 1557) de 755 cas soumis de troupeaux de porcs canadiens entre 2016 et 2020 ont été testés pour les rotavirus A, B et C à l'aide d'un test de réaction d'amplification en chaîne par polymérase en temps réel et décrits. Les données de l'Ontario et du Québec ont également été analysées à l'aide de diagrammes en boîte, de moyennes mobiles sur 6 semaines, d'une décomposition de séries chronologiques et de modèles de régression binomiale négative. On a découvert que le pourcentage de positivité des soumissions pour les rotavirus A, B et C étaient le plus élevé en pouponnière/sevrage (n = 100, 94,0 %, 60,0 %, 80,0 %) et en croissance/engraissement (n = 13, 84,6 %, 46,2 %, 61,5 %) des porcs et le plus bas chez les cochettes/truies (n = 45, 68,9 %, 20,0 %, 40,0 %) et les porcs à la mamelle (n = 102, 67,6 %, 10,8 %, 38,2 %), respectivement. La combinaison la plus courante de rotavirus au niveau de l'échantillon était AC (n = 252, 17 %) et ABC (n = 175, 23,2 %) au niveau de la soumission. Les pourcentages de positivité pour les rotavirus A, B et C dans toutes les provinces canadiennes incluses dans l'étude étaient de 69,9 %, 32,6 % et 53,1 %, respectivement. L'analyse descriptive a suggéré peu ou pas de preuves de tendances saisonnières, bien qu'un pic en novembre ait été observé dans les soumissions totales mensuelles et les soumissions positives totales mensuelles. Statistiquement, l'effet mensuel global n'a pu être identifié comme statistiquement significatif (P > 0,05) pour aucun des nombres de soumissions évalués. Dans l'ensemble, il n'y avait aucune preuve à l'appui de la saisonnalité du rotavirus dans les troupeaux de porcs de l'Ontario et du Québec entre 2016 et 2020.(Traduit par Docteur Serge Messier).

Identification of Risk Factors for African Swine Fever: A Systematic Review.

African swine fever (ASF) is an internationally-spreading viral pig disease that severely damages agricultural pork production and trade economy as well as social welfare in disease-affected regions. A comprehensive understanding of ASF risk factors is imperative for efficient disease control. As the absence of effective ASF vaccines limits disease management options, the identification and minimisation of ASF-associated risk factors is critical to preventing ASF outbreaks. Here, we compile currently known potential ASF risk factors identified through a systematic literature review. We found 154 observation-based and 1239 potential ASF risk factors, which we were able to group into the following defined risk categories: 'ASF-virus', 'Biosecurity', 'Disease control', 'Environment', 'Husbandry', 'Movement', 'Network', 'Pig', 'Society' and 'Surveillance'. Throughout the epidemiological history of ASF there have been similar risk categories, such as 'Environment'-related risk factors, predominantly reported in the literature irrespective of the ASF situation at the time. While ASF risk factor reporting has markedly increased since 2010, the majority of identified risk factors overall have referred to domestic pigs. The reporting of risk factors for ASF in wild boar mostly commenced from 2016 onwards. The compendium of ASF risk factors presented herein defines our current knowledge of ASF risk factors, and critically informs ASF-related problem solving.

A questionnaire survey for the assessment of wild-domestic pig interactions in a context oedema disease outbreaks among wild boars (Sus scrofa) in South-Eastern France.

Pig outdoor farming is gaining popularity and commercial success in the European Union, and its expansion, together with an increasing wild boar population, facilitates interactions between domestic and wild suids. In the Southern French Department of Ardèche, several episodes of mass mortalities due to infection with an enteropathogenic strain of Escherichia coli causing oedema disease (OD) were reported in wild boar populations between 2013 and 2016. In order to investigate a potential link between those events and the frequency of interactions between wild boar and domestic pig, we analyzed regional vegetation and hunting bag data and implemented a semi-structured questionnaire survey among a total of 30 outdoor pig farmers and 30 hunters distributed inside and outside the identified area of OD emergence. One third of interviewed farmers (11/30) had experienced intrusions of wild boars in domestic pig premises during the previous year. Similarly, 23% of interviewed hunters reported interactions between wild boar and feral free-ranging pigs in recent years, and 60% reported the observation of free-ranging pigs with a phenotypic feature of Vietnamese pot-bellied pigs (55%). Our analysis identified that in the OD emergence area, several factors could facilitate the transmission of pathogens between wild and domestic suids including a predominance of forested vegetation, a higher estimated wild boar density, weaker levels of farm biosecurity, a higher level of reported wild boar intrusions in pig farms and several reports of feral pot-bellied pig presence. Although our sample was limited, our study suggested a widespread occurrence of situations facilitating the transmission of pathogens between wild and domestic suids. Similar studies in other rural regions in the European Union are recommended, in order to promote preparedness for the emergence and circulation of shared swine pathogens.

Assessment of porcine Rotavirus-associated virome variations in pigs with enteric disease.

Enteric disease is the predominant cause of morbidity and mortality in young mammals including pigs. Viral species involved in porcine enteric disease complex (PEDC) include rotaviruses, coronaviruses, picornaviruses, astroviruses and pestiviruses among others. The virome of three groups of swine samples submitted to the Kansas State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory for routine testing were assessed, namely, a Rotavirus A positive (RVA) group, a Rotavirus co-infection (RV) group and a Rotavirus Negative (RV Neg) group. All groups were designated by qRT-PCR test results for Porcine Rotavirus A, B, C and H such that samples positive for RVA only went in the RVA group, samples positive for > 1 rotavirus went in the RV group and samples negative for all were grouped in the RVNeg group. All of the animals had clinical enteric disease resulting in scours and swollen joints/lameness, enlarged heart and/or a cough. All samples were metagenomic sequenced and analyzed for viral species composition that identified 14 viral species and eight bacterial viruses/phages. Sapovirus and Escherichia coli phages were found at a high prevalence in RVA and RV samples but were found at low or no prevalence in the RVNeg samples. Picobirnavirus was identified at a high proportion and prevalence in RVNeg and RV samples but at a low prevalence in the RVA group. Non-rotaviral diversity was highest in RVA samples followed by RV then RV Neg samples. A sequence analysis of the possible host of Picobirnaviruses revealed fungi as the most likely host. Various sequences were extracted from the sample reads and a phylogenetic update was provided showing a high prevalence of G9 and P[23] RVA genotypes. These data are important for pathogen surveillance and control measures.

Cross-sectional risk assessment of zoonotic Streptococcus suis in pork and swine blood in Nakhon Sawan Province in northern Thailand.

A cross-sectional study evaluated the risk of zoonotic Streptococcus suis (S. suis) illness from consuming raw pork and swine blood in Nakhon Sawan Province. A four-step risk assessment recommended by the Codex Alimentarius Commission was used to evaluate the risk along the pork supply chain. A total of 480 pork and swine blood samples were collected from the abattoir (n = 120) and retail (n = 360) during December 2020 and January 2021. Streptococcus suis in samples was enumerated using a culture-based technique and then confirmed by the biochemical and molecular technique. Streptococcus suis was serotyped by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Two positive swine blood samples were contaminated with non-zoonotic S. suis serotype 23 at retail. In the case of all negative samples, the deterministic prevalence becomes zero and then the risk could not be estimated. Otherwise, the beta probability distribution was used to describe the probabilistic prevalence, while the maximum likelihood estimator was applied to estimate the upper limit of a probability distribution of concentration. The district averages of probabilistic prevalences of zoonotic S. suis in pork products at abattoir and retail were 9.9% and 4.1%, respectively. The district averages of concentrations of zoonotic S. suis in pork and blood samples from abattoir were 6.8 × 10-3  cfu/g and 6.83 cfu/ml and in pork and blood samples from retail were 2.3 × 10-3  cfu/g and 2.30 cfu/ml, respectively. The overall annual risk estimate per 100,000 population in pork and swine blood from abattoir and retail were 9.8 × 10-11 , 2.2 × 10-6 , 5.4 × 10-13 , and 8.3 × 10-8 . These risk estimates were negligible (<10-6 ) except for the annual risk estimate in swine blood from the abattoir. The results from this cross-sectional risk assessment should prompt the food safety regulator to cautiously sample by taking into account the duration of sampling and sample size.

Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea: Causative Agent, Epidemiology, Clinical Characteristics, and Treatment Strategy Targeting Main Protease.

AIMS: This aimed to study the causative agent, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and treatment strategy targeting the main protease in porcine epidemic diarrhea. BACKGROUND: Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is a contagious intestinal viral infection causing severe diarrhea, vomiting, and dehydration in pigs. High rates of mortalities and severe morbidities, approaching 100%, are reported in piglets infected with PEDV. In recent years, PED has been observed to influence the swine-farming nations in Europe, Asia, the USA, South Korea, and Canada. The PED virus (PEDV) transmission takes place through a faecal-oral route. OBJECTIVE: The objective is to review the characteristics of PEDV and its role in the disease. In addition, we aim to outline some possible methods to combat PED infection, including targeting the main protease of coronavirus and their future perspectives. METHODS: This study is a review of literature on the PED virus. RESULTS: Apart from symptomatic treatment and supportive care, there is no available specific treatment for PEDV. Appropriate disinfectants and cleaning are pivotal for the control of PEDV. To date, apart from anti-PEDV inhibitors, there are no specific drugs available commercially to treat the disease. Therefore, 3C-like protease (3CLpro) in PEDV that has highly conserved structure and catalytic mechanism serves as an alluring drug as it plays a vital role during viral polyprotein processing at the time of infection. CONCLUSION: A well synchronized and collective effort of scientists, swine veterinarians, pork industry experts, and associated authorities is essential for the accomplishment of proper execution of these required measures.

A methodology to assess indirect economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks: A case of hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland.

Indirect costs of animal disease outbreaks often significantly exceed the direct costs. Despite their importance, indirect costs remain poorly characterized due to their complexity. In this study, we developed a framework to assess the indirect costs of a hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland. We collected data through international and national stakeholder interviews, analysis of national disease control regulations and industry data. We developed a framework to capture the resulting qualitative and quantitative data, categorize the impacts of these regulations, and rank the impacts in order of importance. We then developed a spreadsheet model to calculate the indirect costs of one category of control measure for an individual group of stakeholders. We developed a decision tree model to guide the most economically favourable implementation plan for a given control measure category, under different outbreak scenarios. Our results suggest that the most important measure/impact categories were 'Transport logistics', 'Consumer demand', 'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact' and 'Slaughter logistics'. In our hypothetical scenario, the greatest costs associated with 'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact' were due to assumed partial or total depopulation of fattening pig farms in order to reduce herd size to comply with the simulated control regulations. The model also provides suggestions on the most economically favourable strategy to reduce contact between wild boar and domestic pigs in control areas. Our approach provides a new framework to integrate qualitative and quantitative data to guide disease control strategy. This method could be useful in other countries and for other diseases, including in data- and resource-poor settings, or areas with limited experience of animal disease outbreaks.

African swine fever risk and plant-based feed ingredients: Canada's approach to risk management of imported feed products.

As a result of unprecedented spread of African swine fever (ASF) since 2018, Canada has taken additional steps to prevent introduction of the virus. While the role of plant-based feed in the transmission of ASF is not completely understood, it was identified that no mitigation measures were in place to address this uncertain risk. A risk analysis process was conducted with collaboration between government and industry, including an assessment of the costs and benefits of various risk mitigation options. Using existing legislative tools, requirements must now be met before the importation of plant-based feed ingredients of concern is permitted. Even with an uncertain risk, countries such as Canada that would suffer severe consequences should ASF be introduced, need to consider appropriate, risk-based mitigation measures.

Is the COVID-19 pandemic impacting on the risk of African Swine Fever virus (ASFV) introduction into the United States? A short-term assessment of the risk factors.

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious disease with high mortality in domestic and feral swine populations. Although it is not a zoonosis, its spread may have severe socio-economic and public health consequences. The activities of veterinary services are essential for controlling ASF outbreaks within a country, but also for diminishing its threat of spread to neighbouring countries, and for recognizing its entry into countries that are currently free. ASF requires quick responses and permanent monitoring to identify outbreaks and prevent spread, and both aspects can be heavily undercut during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper analyses changing patterns of the main drivers and pathways for the potential introduction of ASFV into the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, including international movements of people, swine products and by-products. Data on commercial flights and merchant ships was used as a proxy to indirectly assess the flow of illegal products coming from ASF affected countries. Results from this study highlight a decreasing trend in the legal imports of swine products and by-products from ASF affected countries (Sen's slope = -99, 95% CI: -215.34 to -21.26, p-value < 0.05), while no trend was detected for confiscations of illegal products at ports of entry. Additionally, increasing trends were detected for the monthly number of merchant ships coming from ASF affected countries (Sen's slope = 0.46, 95%CI 0.25-0.59), the monthly value of imported goods ($) through merchant ships (Sen's slope = 1513196160, 95%CI 1072731702-1908231855), and the monthly percentage of commercial flights (Sen's slope = 0.005, 95%CI 0.003-0.007), with the majority of them originating from China. Overall, the findings show an increased connection of the United States with ASF affected countries, highlighting the risk posed by ASF during a global public health crisis.

Assessment of soy-based imports into the United States and associated foreign animal disease status.

Soy-based products are known to pose a viable risk to U.S. swine herds because of their ability to harbour and transmit virus. This publication aimed to evaluate soy imports into the United States as a whole and from foreign animal disease positive (FAD-positive) countries to determine which products are being imported in the highest quantities and observe potential trends in imports from FAD-positive countries. Import data were accessed through the United States International Trade Commission website (USITC DataWeb) and summarized using R (version 4.0.2, R core team, Vienna, Austria). Twenty-one different Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes were queried to determine quantities (metric tonnes, MT) and breakdown of different soy product types being imported into the United States from 2015 to 2020. A total of 78 different countries exported soy products to the United States in 2019 and 2020 with top contributors being Canada (546,467 and 481,497 MT, respectively), India (397,858 and 430,621 MT, respectively) and Argentina (122,116 and 79,471 MT, respectively). Soy oilcake (582,273 MT) was imported in the largest quantities, followed by organic soybeans (270,194 MT) and soy oil (134,436 MT) for 2020. Of the 78 countries, 46 had cases of FAD reported through the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) World Animal Health Information Database (WAHIS). Top exporters of soy products to the United States from FAD-positive countries in 2019 and 2020 were India (397,858 and 430,621 MT, respectively), Argentina (122,116 MT in 2019) and Ukraine (40,293 and 56,392 MT, respectively). The risk of FAD introduction to the United States through soy imports can fluctuate based on where FAD outbreaks are occurring, shipping methods and end usage of products. A system to monitor these factors could help make future decisions about trade and risk of FAD introduction to U.S. swine herds.